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July 1, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Jul 01, 2008

Markets Re-cap

H2 is ushering in more falling prices in global equity markets. Financials (XLF) and Consumer Cyclicals XLY) are starting the second half of 2008 at 52-week lows.

H1 closed yesterday with the DJIA (+3.50 +0.03%) at 11350.01 and the S&P 500 (+1.62 +0.13%) almost flat, while the NASDAQ Composite sank -22.65 -0.98% to 2292.98. The Toronto Exchange closed +111.82 at 14467.03.

In New York, the leading sectors were Utilities (XLU +2.4%), Telecom (IYZ +1.7%) and Energy (XLE +1.4%). Financials (XLF -1.5%) were the worst with Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.1%) and Banks ($BKS -1.9%) both down. Retailers ($RLX) dropped -1.9%.

Among the banks and brokers, Lehman (LEH) fell -11.0% on the day as rumors abound that the company is for sale.

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: CCJ (+6.0%), NTES (+5.3%), DNA (+4.4%) and CEO (+4.2%). The losers were: BC (-5.8%), UBS (-4.8%), WFMI (-3.9%), and SBUX (-3.7%). RIMM was weak again too as the NASDAQ dropped.

The US long bond ($USB) was off a bit (-0.05%) to 115.59, whereas yields generally were also down a bit, so the shorter bonds lifted a bit. The T-Bill yield gained +4.6% to 1.705.

The US Dollar index ($USD) gained +0.32% to 72.53, while the Euro ($XEU -0.26% to 1.5749) and Yen ($XJY -0.15% to 97.90) lost a bit of ground.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) lost -$0.21/bbl to 140.00, while $GOLD dropped -$3.00 to 928.30.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were weak: Australia All-Ords -1.35% to 5261.1; Shanghai Composite -3.09% to 2651.6; and India’s Sensex 30 -3.71% to 12961.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained +0.27% to 22101 and tokyo’s Nikkei Dow lost just -0.13% to 13463.2.

European stocks are getting hammered today after Goldman Sachs recommended buying puts as “crash insurance”. At 8:10am ET, the UK FTSE 100 is down -2.68% to 5475.3; the French CAC down -2.40% to 4328.6; and the German DAX down -1.90% to 6296.5. The big losers in Europe today were the big European banks, UBS (UBS), Deutsche Bank (DB) and HSBC (HBC).

The futures prices for the USD, Euro, WTIC Crude Oil and the DJIA are 72.635 (weaker), 1.5720 (stronger), 142.05 (+2.05/bbl), and 11235 (-104), respectively. The focus today is on the continued strength of the oil market, and its pressure on the $USD and the US economy.


Comments & Outlook

By way of comment to those who don't understand the puts and calls options market, this piece of Goldman Sachs so-called advice is late by perhaps a year. In all likelihood, Goldman Sachs will be selling you their puts and closing short positions in the financials in the next few months.

Trading is an exercise in risk avoidance and this Goldman ploy is a classic risk transference one. It may make sense if you are a sophisticated day trader who understands options and follows markets from minute to minute, but the average trader would be misled, duped once again by HB&B "advice".

In the Week In Review, I made a comment that raised more letters to me than I can recall. I said, basically, that Bear markets generate plenty of opportunities and that, being in one today, we must be looking forward by preparing wish lists based on our thinking how the future is likely to play out.

I also looked at the promise of the high dividend yielding Telcos, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), particularly for income investors, who I think should be looking for opportunities to switch from bonds (which will suffer as interest rates increase in future, which is likely). The dividends of these stocks are well protected (especially T) and growing, along with earnings growth, and the prices of the stocks nearing the Accumulation Zone. So, while the average retail investor might wish to hold off for a couple months to see how the expected broad market shake-out affects these stocks (prices will be protected with the high current yield), it is my belief that the major fund managers, having to move cash into the market, will start to move in now, and that will provide a measure of support for a summer rally.

Yesterday, in a flat DJIA/S&P 500 market session, T jumped +2.84% to $33.69 and VZ +3.27% to $35.40. Either somebody’s listening or else my crystal ball is working better these days.

Btw, there are still people who do not appreciate the risks posed by Interventionists in our so-called free capital markets. The major Interventionists are the central banks of the world. They say their mandate is to stabilize prices, to our benefit, but the facts say otherwise.

For example, nine years ago there was an agreement dubbed the Washington Accord wherein central bankers agreed to sell only enough gold in the open market, they said at the time to prevent its price from collapsing. The price at that point was US$260 an ounce. Far from collapsing, today the gold price is about $930, and the 200-day Moving Average is about $865. If central banks had sold no gold since the time of the Washington Accord, where do you think the POG would be today? $1500? $2000?

The Washington Accord was extended by the Gold Agreement of September 27 2005, which limits central bank annual gold sales to 500 tonnes between 2004 and 2009. It is my belief that central banks only sell gold whenever HB&B or their major clients are ready to buy it and to the extent they want it. The “Accord” is to prevent gold from falling into the wrong hands, ie, to the public, because that would put the public into a strong position of controlling government deficit spending and its soaring debt.

Have a great day to all, and a special one Canada. Yes, it’s true; you can take the boy out of Canada, but not Canada out of the boy.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 1, 2008 08:25:51 AM | Category: Daily Report