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July 19, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Jul 19, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Too many witches are scaring the market. Thursday was witching day for oil; Friday it was options on equities; and next week it will be one for gold. If you don’t understand witching day, you might want to read up.
At the bell yesterday, the DJIA (+49.91 +0.44% to 11496.57) was up and the NASDAQ Composite (-29.52 -1.28% to 2282.78) was down, while the S&P 500 (+0.36 +0.03% to 1260.68) was flat. The difference was the last 30 minute strength in the oils, led by Exxon (XOM and CVX), which I believe was related to the options expiry. That in itself was enough to power the DJIA by +60 points in the final minutes, which made the markets generally appear stronger than they are.
Toronto Composite closed up +55.7 +0.41% to 13516, but as the afternoon dragged on, the TSX faded.
The winning sectors in NY were Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.1%) ex the Retailers ($RLX which dropped -1.0% on the day). The Financials (XLF +2.0%) were strong too, especially Citigroup (C +7.7% as it reported a massive loss that apparently exceeded expectations), but all the action in the Financials was near the opening bell. Energy (XLE +1.8%) gained on the session, particularly in the Oil Services industry ($OSX +2.5%).
For the Retailers, a couple Cara 100 company stocks did well (KSS +0.6% and WMT +0.4%), but many retailers got hit, such as Rite-Aid (RAD -10.3%), Whole Foods Market (WFMI -5.1%), Safeway (SWY -4.3%) and Amazon (AMZN -4.2%).
The winning Cara 100 stocks were IBKR +5.0%, BBD +3.6%, IBN +3.4%, and IBM +2.7%, which I gave you off the top of the day.
The losers were GOOG -9.8% (a good put write as even Mr Platinum was doing that at the end of the day as I sat at his table at Hy’s), WFMI -5.1%, VCP -4.3%, and GRMN -3.4%.
The US long bond ($USB -0.27%) closed down to 114.33. Three days ago $USB closed at 116.88. Inflation data has taken its toll this week. On the day, the bond yields closed higher across the 30-, 10-, and 5-year Treasuries and T-Bills at 4.662, 4.081, 3.397 and 1.420 respectively.
Equity markets in Europe gained strength during the afternoon session, closing up between +1.7% and +1.8% in UK, France and Germany. Traders there were continuing to support the banks.
The $USD and Euro were completely flat, but the Yen (-0.49%) and Pound (-0.18%) lost ground on the day.
At 2:30pm, Crude Oil futures closed at 127.47, down -$0.71/bbl.
$GOLD dropped -$12.70/oz to 958.00. At the close, the spot prices for precious metal prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver (compared to the morning prices at the start of each of the past four days) reflected ongoing weakness: 954.3 (957.05, 959.65, 970.81, 984.43); 412 (418, 424, 432, 447); 1850 (1866, 1942, 1946, 2008); and 18.10 (18.42, 18.72, 18.74, 19.355), respectively.
Bank tightening on credit to speculators plus the higher margin requirements recently introduced at the futures exchanges has dimmed the action in the commodity markets.
The DJIA futures closed the week at 11501.
Comments & Outlook
As to witching days, the SEC might want to check the unfair advantage that Humungous Bank & Broker has over the rest of us. I suspect the SEC investigators will find some funny business going on when the US equity market closes at 4pm ET Friday, but HB&B trades in the after-market and then closes their options market at noon Saturday.
If they need some help, why not check out the XOM and CVX share prices and options trading near the close.
What a set-up for improper actions by HB&B. And you know; where there is a will (and there is!), HB&B will always find a way to screw over the client, which is why the performance of the average mutual fund, hedge fund and average institutional and retail account always trails that of the broad market indexes and the HB&B prop trading desks.
The important order of business now is for me to change the composition of the Cara 100. I will be removing a (gasp!) gold producer in exchange for a (gasp!) auto manufacturer. That’s right, cars for gold. “Kaimu” will have a heart attack.
But really, what I’m doing is some long-term planning, switching the troublesome infrastructure/divestment issues of the Republic of South Africa for the rapid growth and entrepreneurial brilliance of India. I am no longer interested in South Africa as a place to invest. So out goes Gold Fields (GFI) and in comes Tata (TTM).
As you know the Cara 100 is a list of companies that I monitor for possible trading purposes. I like their quality, ie, financial strength, superior operating metrics, sound management, macro-economic factors and the like.
I won’t go into the Tata switch too much as today is my day off (smiley goes here), but suffice it for me to say that Tata is raising eyebrows among international investors with (i) the Landrover-Jaguar deal, (ii) then the world's cheapest car, and (iii) its latest plan to introduce a car that runs on compressed air. As Tata powers forward, the Big Three of Detroit are going in reverse.
So, ta-ta everyone. Enjoy your weekend. The WIR will be done on Sunday, as usual.
btw, I am in Toronto watching the start of the 300 mile sailing race around Lake Ontario as it passes in front of my home. I'd take photos except the smog and humidity is so high, you can't see much even though the hundreds of boats are close to the shore line. You know, people complain about heat and humidity in Nassau in the summer, but it's never like this.
Hurricanes, well that's a story too. Nassau, or the entire Bahamas, even if you add up the damage of all the hurricanes in its recent history, has never experienced the fury of Hurricane Hazel on Toronto in 1954 during my youth. I remember it well. As Wiki states: "The flash flooding (8.5 inch rain) that followed destroyed 20 bridges, killed 81 people, including five firemen who died in rescue attempts, and left about 4000 families homeless. A wall of water rushing down the Humber River swept away a full block of homes on Raymore Drive, and killed 32 sleeping residents in an hour. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit Canada in recorded history, and no natural disaster since has led to such a high death toll on Canadian soil." Aunts, Uncles and cousins of mine lived a block away.
It's all part of life, and why I never get too worked up about hurricanes. Like the market, you first manage your risks and let the upside come to you. If you are smart about it, things usually work out.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

All Tables
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 1.41 | 1.32 | 1.48 | 1.85 |
| 6 Month | 1.85 | 1.79 | 1.94 | 2.20 |
| 2 Year | 2.63 | 2.49 | 2.58 | 2.85 |
| 3 Year | 2.54 | 2.42 | 2.51 | 2.83 |
| 5 Year | 3.41 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 3.55 |
| 10 Year | 4.08 | 3.99 | 3.95 | 4.13 |
| 30 Year | 4.65 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 4.71 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.29 | 2.31 | 2.39 | 2.47 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.19 | 2.35 | 2.32 | 2.44 |
| 2yr A | 2.53 | 2.41 | 2.54 | 2.92 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.91 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 3.18 |
| 5yr AA | 2.92 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 3.22 |
| 5yr A | 3.10 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.38 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.87 |
| 10yr AA | 3.64 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 3.83 |
| 10yr A | 3.69 | 3.64 | 3.63 | 3.94 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.85 | 4.76 | 4.70 | 4.64 |
| 20yr AA | 4.77 | 4.73 | 4.62 | 4.62 |
| 20yr A | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.62 | 4.59 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.47 | 4.40 | 4.27 | 4.29 |
| 2yr A | 4.92 | 5.07 | 4.73 | 4.51 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.18 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.03 |
| 5yr AA | 5.80 | 5.66 | 5.38 | 5.52 |
| 5yr A | 6.40 | 6.46 | 5.89 | 5.69 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.48 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.76 |
| 10yr AA | 6.39 | 6.28 | 6.02 | 6.24 |
| 10yr A | 6.40 | 6.32 | 6.11 | 5.98 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.51 | 7.03 | 6.55 | 6.35 |
| 20yr AA | 6.30 | 6.82 | 6.95 | 6.32 |
| 20yr A | 6.76 | 7.28 | 6.81 | 6.60 |
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 19, 2008 12:00:02 PM | Category: Daily Report









