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July 12, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Jul 12, 2008
Markets Re-cap
As I was travelling on Friday and missed the action, which played out as I expected (Financials and Consumer Discretionary were hammered the most), I shall reprint the Knobias report, plus make a few comments. The WIR will be published late Sunday.
[End-of-session Report] Paulson's comments mid-day sent the market to lows of the day with FRE and FNM leading the way down after a bailout seemed off the table in the short term with "their primary focus is to support FNM and FRE in their current form as they carry out their important mission" comments. After reaching lows of over 2% on the Dow, reports surfaced that Bernanke may possibly open the Discount Window to the GSE's in an attempt to thwart complete insolvency. Sources noted that Bernanke had meant for the window to be open to the GSE's but no official word had been reported from the Fed. Senator Christopher Dodd also noted that the mortgage finance giants were "fundamentally strong" and questions about their capital were unwarranted. After the reports, the market responded with an afternoon rally possibly caused by a short covering that wiped out the losses for the day. After reaching green territory for a brief moment, the rally failed and settled down over 120+ points on the Dow. Treasuries were also still down following the release of the Treasury Budget.[Mid-session Report] Paulson commented regarding the GSE's and noted "their primary focus is to support FNM and FRE in their current form as they carry out their important mission." The news that a bailout is off the table in the short term has sent the financials and the overall market into a plunge. GE seemed to be the only blue chipper able to stay in the green following their inline earnings report. As oil reached record highs, the Pentagon responded to reports of Israeli preparations and refuted aerial maneuvers over Iraqi soil. The news sent oil off its highs but still up on the day. Even so, the Bears continued to rule the day as the VIX reached a 3 month high and crept ever closer to the 30 psychological area while the Dow reached areas not seen in two years and flirted with daily lows. Surprisingly, yields on treasuries were up suggesting money was on the sidelines waiting for a catalyst.
TOP STORIES
- Fannie, Freddie Shares Tumble On Capital Worries
- WB: Cut To In-Line From Outperform At Fox-Pitt
- GE Posts 5.8% Drop In 2Q Net On GE Money, Industrial Woes
- APC: Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform
- Record Rise In US Import Prices Signals Inflation Risk
- Inbev Raises Anheuser Offer To $70 A Share
- Oil Tops $146 On Supply Jitters, Weak Dollar
- Credit Mutuel Buys Citigroup's German Operations For €4.9B
- MSFT: CSFB Starts @ Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $35; Analyst Notes
- Paulson Comments on GSE's; Supports Backing FNM and FRE in their Current Form
- Pentagon Denies Israeli Aerial Exercises over Iraq
- The White House Calls For Quick Passage Of Housing Bill; Objects $4B Foreclosure Provision; Notes that FNM and FRE are Important Institutions and Paulson and Bernanke Are Working Very Hard on the Issue.
At the close, the DJIA sank -128.48 -1.14% to 11100 (an intraday low of 10977.68); S&P 500 was down -13.90 -1.11% to 1239.49; and the NASDAQ Composite lost -18.77 -0.83% to 2239.08. The Toronto Composite dropped -34.78 -0.25% to 13709.10, while the Toronto Venture managed to lift +0.34% to 2391.86.
Confidence in the major US mortgage lenders and in the key monetary policy makers and regulators Paulson and Bernanke has plunged and with it the $USD has sunk to a close Friday of 71.94 (-0.76%), while the Euro rocketed up to 1.5935 (+0.92%).
With this fall in the USD, oil and gold speculators are rushing into oil and precious metals as a short-term hedge. Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +$3.33/bbl (for a two-session gain of +9.61/bbl) and $GOLD gained +$18.60/oz (for a two-session gain of 32.00/oz) as the $USD plummeted from 73.00 on Wednesday morning to a close of 71.94.
The leading sector ETF was Goldminers ($XAU +4.0%), which also gained +2.8% on Thursday. The losers were Financials (XLF -2.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.1%), for a two-session haircut of -3.9%.
The losing industry groups were Airlines ($XAL -5.6%), Banks ($BKX -2.2%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.0%).
Cara 100 winners were the expected precious metal players: SLW +6.9%, ABX and GG +5.3%, and GFI +3.7%. The losers were INFY -13.3% and IBN -7.4%, both of which reflect extreme selling in the India market.
The 30-year US Bond ($USB) lost -1.25% to 115.84, which is a significant pull-back as traders rushed to cash and T-Bills. Some of these bonds may have been sold to withdraw the cash from brokerage houses and banks as traders are becoming increasingly concerned that FDIC insurance may be inadequate. Meanwhile, yields moved +2.2% to 4.517 for the 30-year Treasury; up +3.4% to 3.940 for the 10-year; and up +6.0% to 3.275 for the 5-year. As traders made the save-haven play into T-Bills, the higher price dropped the yield -3.7% to 1.57. On Tuesday morning the yield was 1.775.
As the US Dollar index ($USD) lost -0.76% to close at 71.94, the Euro gained +0.92% to 1.5935. The Yen gained +0.77% to 94.14; and the Pound gained +0.59% to 198.89. The Cdn Loonie lost -0.05% to 0.9901.
During Friday, the European stocks were hammered. The FTSE 100 closed down -2.69% to 5261.6; the French CAC down -3.09% to 4100.64; and the German DAX off -2.41% to 6153.3.
Crude Oil futures closed the week at 145.66.
Spot prices at the close of the week for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were at 963.7, 448.5, 2027, and 18.79. I noted that the palladium and platinum actually sold off a bit as gold and silver rallied later in the session.
I also noted that the futures for the USD strengthened and Euro weakened a bit late in the session.
The DJIA futures closed the week at 11096.
Comments & Outlook
Traders seem to be engrossed in the future of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) and whether the Fed can or will save them. For some time now I have opined that nobody truly knows the value of the syndicated mortgage-backed asset holdings of these companies, so, just like the independent trader would not save IndyMac from its eventual demise Friday because they won’t put more capital into it, the shareholders of FNM and FRE are in the same boat. I don’t know how the government or the Fed can save them. There is obviously no equity left, so maybe they float a senior preferred share that the Fed buys for its own account? Clearly, it’s equity that must be invested.
I have always said that the purpose of capital markets is to be used as a price discovery mechanism and that the interventionists (central banks and finance ministers), having different objectives, mess with that functionality. For Henry Paulson to tell the Chinese monetary authorities their currency ought to be market-set is, in my view, an indictable offense. This man is and will always be a disaster for public service. From the time he was born with a silver spoon in Palm Beach Florida, he has always served his own interests and those of his banker colleagues. The massive problems that the American public and its lending institutions face today happened on his watch and are directly attributable to his actions of the summer of 2006. Paulson’s ego was such that in private talks with traders and bankers he actually believed he could, by his own actions, break the falling momentum of the equity market cycle at that time, and stave the Bear, when all he did was postpone it by making credit markets grow worse to the point where he broke the back of the US financial system.
Books will be written about this man. Trust me.
Kind of reminds me of the Hunt Brothers of Texas who tried a similar stunt with the silver market in the late 1970’s. These people don’t seem to understand that the market is us—all of us—and its health depends on our confidence in its fundamentals, not on the basis of actions by Interventionists.
Just wanted to kill another market myth that the sell-side tries to perpetuate.
One final comment today; you all know the sell-side mantra “Climbing the Wall of Worry”. Well, the Bulls are all worried, but who’s climbing? They are all down and awaiting the Interventionists to boost them up.
What we need are free markets and an equity market that is not based on credit and run by the sell-side. Many countries celebrated their Independence Day this month. Sadly, we still need to achieve our independence from people like Paulson and Bernanke and the bought-and-paid-for politicians who put them into those positions of power over us.
We may yet have a summer rally, but this Bear is not done yet.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

All Tables
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 1.48 | 1.59 | 1.77 | 1.87 |
| 6 Month | 1.94 | 1.92 | 2.01 | 2.10 |
| 2 Year | 2.58 | 2.41 | 2.52 | 2.81 |
| 3 Year | 2.51 | 2.34 | 2.44 | 2.78 |
| 5 Year | 3.27 | 3.07 | 3.27 | 3.47 |
| 10 Year | 3.95 | 3.80 | 3.98 | 4.07 |
| 30 Year | 4.53 | 4.41 | 4.53 | 4.70 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.39 | 2.30 | 2.62 | 2.38 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.32 | 2.14 | 2.50 | 2.30 |
| 2yr A | 2.54 | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.61 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.86 | 2.55 | 3.09 | 3.02 |
| 5yr AA | 3.01 | 2.78 | 3.26 | 3.03 |
| 5yr A | 3.08 | 3.05 | 3.19 | 3.25 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.66 | 3.68 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| 10yr AA | 3.60 | 3.62 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| 10yr A | 3.63 | 3.66 | 3.77 | 3.87 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.70 | 4.60 | 4.62 | 4.49 |
| 20yr AA | 4.62 | 4.55 | 4.63 | 4.44 |
| 20yr A | 4.62 | 4.65 | 4.69 | 4.53 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.27 | 4.22 | 4.11 | 4.34 |
| 2yr A | 4.73 | 4.60 | 4.55 | 4.69 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.10 | 4.97 | 5.15 | 4.98 |
| 5yr AA | 5.38 | 5.21 | 5.41 | 5.42 |
| 5yr A | 5.89 | 5.72 | 5.66 | 5.43 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.35 | 5.47 | 5.78 | 5.68 |
| 10yr AA | 6.02 | 6.09 | 5.96 | 6.17 |
| 10yr A | 6.11 | 6.01 | 5.96 | 5.87 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.55 | 6.39 | 6.39 | 6.35 |
| 20yr AA | 6.95 | 6.79 | 6.79 | 6.33 |
| 20yr A | 6.81 | 6.65 | 6.64 | 6.61 |
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 12, 2008 12:30:01 AM | Category: Daily Report









