At the bell yesterday, the DJIA (+207.38 +1.85% to 11446.66), the S&P 500 (+14.95 +1.20% to 1260.31) and the NASDAQ Composite (+27.45 +1.20% to 2312.30) rallied strongly again. The Toronto composite dropped -43.6 -0.32% to 13460.3, mostly on the weakness in oils.

The winning sectors were Financials (XLF +4.3%, which followed a day of +13.1%) and Industrials (XLI +2.8%). In the Financials, the Banks ($BKX +9.4%, following a day of +17.3%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +6.6%, following a day of +13.2%) were big winners again. Also, with another significant decline in oil prices, the Airlines ($XAL +8.6%, following a day of +18.1%) rallied hard again.

The losing sectors, reflecting the commodity price pull-back in oils, were, once again, Energy (XLE -1.6%) and Utilities (XLU -1.6%). This chart of XLE shows the impact of lower oil prices. This one shows the three-day collapse in the $WTIC (-5.14/bbl yesterday closing at 130.18, following -4.05/bbl and -6.61/bbl losses in the previous two days. This loss of $15.60/bbl in three days is unprecedented, which shows the degree of speculation in the market since these price moves are not on account of new economic data.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?XLE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$WTIC

Note also that the price of the energy stocks started a significant pull-back near the beginning of the month whereas the oil commodity price collapsed only on Tuesday of this week.

NatGas ($XNG -3.9%) and Goldminers ($XAU -2.0%) were down the most of the industry groups.

The winning Cara 100 stocks were CCL +9.6% (following a day of +9.8%) and BC +8.1% based on the oil price decline, plus India bank ICICI (IBN +9.5%) from a major over-sold position, and NOK +8.7%. The losers were NUE -11.1%, RIO -5.5%, GGB -5.3%, all in the steel and metals group. Suncor (SU -4.3%) continued its decline.

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed with Shanghai (+3.49%) and India (+3.99% up) the most and Australia (-1.25%) and Japan (-0.65%) the weakest.

Traders continue to support the banks in keeping with the rally in the US.

At this point in the session (7:10am ET, 1210 GMT), the European bourses have been in rally mode. In the past 30 minutes the UK FTSE has moved from -0.61% to +0.58% at 5317; French CAC from -0.14% to +0.63% at 4253; and the German DAX from -0.12% to +0.79% at 6321.

The reason for the swing is that Citigroup lost much less than consensus estimates (ie, -$0.54/share vs -$0.66).

Yesterday the US bond market sagged as yields lifted. The 30-year T-Bond lost -0.74% to 114.64. Two days ago $USB closed at 116.88.

Yields on the 30-year, 10-year and 5-year gained +1.2% to 4.638; +2.6% to 4.038; and +4.6% to 3.332. The T-Bill yield gained 3.4% to 1.390.

The $USD was stronger yesterday: $USD +0.21% to 0.7221; Euro +0.16% to 1.5848; Yen -1.19% to 93.98; Pound +0.12% to 200.11; and Loonie -0.36% to 0.9943.

Crude Oil futures closed at 130.18, down -$5.14/bbl. This morning the Sept futures are at 132.66, up +2.48/bbl.

$GOLD yesterday gained +8.00 to 970.70, with the stronger Euro, despite the stronger $USD (which gained off the Yen weakness).

Precious metal prices (spot) at 7:33am ET for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are (compared to the prior three day’s morning prices): 957.05 (959.65, 970.81, 984.43); 418 (424, 432, 447); 1866 (1942, 1946, 2008); and 18.42 (18.72, 18.74, 19.355), respectively. In fact, in the past half hour, the $USD has strengthened from 0.72355 to 0.7244 and the Euro weakened from 1.5803 to 1.5797, following the Citi report.

The DJIA futures at 7:30am ET are at 11430 +29 (since midnight) whereas it was at 11396, down -5 just a half-hour ago.

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Comments & Outlook

Based on the spin involved in explaining bank losses, it looks like more short-covering in the Banks and Brokers to start the day, with Oil prices rising a bit. Then after selling into the XLF strength, the oil price might start to fade in the afternoon.

The Goldminer shares are under pressure as the $USD strengthens, but technical analysts will point to the support of the 50-day Moving Average. I don’t think that will hold because I believe traders are using hot money to goose and then pull-back the broad market on any profit-taking they can gain. It looks to me like a stronger $USD is in order here, with more downward pressure on the precious metals.

For long-term oriented traders, this is a nervous time. A rally of +485 points in the DJIA is unsustainable. From this point, every major loss by the banks (see Citi and now Merrill Lynch), and the need to raise capital (see the $10 billion raise-up by Freddie Mac) requires even more spin and hype from the Talking Heads to keep the Bulls interested.

The Street is now examining the eight-month track record of John Thain at Merrill Lynch. Do you recall from his tour in the Asia-Pacific several months ago he flat stated that Merrill was in good shape and not in need of capital?

Nothing much is happening in the market these days that we didn’t anticipate.

Have a good day. I’ll be in meetings in the afternoon and will miss the close.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.

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10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

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15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities

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20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

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25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

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30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

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35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

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40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

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45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities

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50 (telecom: IYZ)

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55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap-up