The announcement of higher NYMEX margin requirements for natgas and gold scared traders and drove the $USD higher.

Also, after the Saudi Oil minister made remarks that indicated his country would not increase production levels, Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed at $145.29, an increase of +1.72/bbl. Until that point in the morning, there had been a lift to stocks, but then the price of oil zoomed, the $USD rocketed from under 72.40 to 73.20 in minutes (presumably due to the probable impact of $145 oil on the US economy) and that put a damper on share prices.

In any case, higher crude oil prices don’t sometimes translate into high share prices of the oils stocks, and today that happened as XLE was the biggest losing sector ETF for the session, dropping -1.5%. Traders are looking forward to what higher prices will mean to the economy, and they believe that demand will drop.

Traders are also concerned that the higher margin requirements at NYMEX will cool speculation.

By the close in New York at 1:00pm, the DJIA gained +73.03 +0.65% to 11288.54, but the S&P 500 (+1.35 +0.11% to 1262.90), NASDAQ Composite (-6.08 -0.27% to 2245.38), and Russell 2000 small caps (-6.56 -0.98% to 665.78) went in a different direction.

Along with XLE (-1.5%), the losing industry groups were NatGas ($XNG -2.7%) and Oil Services ($OSX -1.7%). The winners were the Industrials and Conglomerates sector (XLI +1.4%) and the Drugs industry group ($DRG +1.9%).

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: WBK (+4.4%) and GSK, SU and NOK (each up +3.5%). The losers were: GOL (-7.6%) and AET (-6.7%), each on elevated volume, plus GGB (-5.0%).

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) dropped -0.24% to 115.88, but there was little movement in yields across the spectrum.

As expected, but despite signs of weakening economic growth, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.25%. This was the first rate increase in a year and is seen as an attempt by the ECB to suppress escalating inflation.

US payrolls in June contracted for the sixth consecutive month. Companies facing write-downs and rising costs or lower demand are cutting back. The Labor Department has reported that Nonfarm payrolls fell by 62,000, slightly more job losses than consensus expectations. The unemployment rate held at 5.5%. May payrolls were revised down by 13,000 to also show a 62,000-job decrease.

The US Dollar index ($USD) rocketed higher at about 10am ET for an hour from about 72.38 to 73.20 before settling back to a close of 72.72 (+0.91%). The Euro (-1.17% to 1.5693), Yen (-0.85% to 93.66), Pound (-0.59% to 1.9811) and Canadian Loonie (-0.64% to 98.05) all pulled back against the US Dollar.

$GOLD lost -$12.90/oz to 933.60 and Crude Oil ($WTIC) lifted by $1.72/bbl to 145.29, another record-setting weekly close.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed. The Australia All-Ords gained +1.49% to 5170; Shanghai lost the same percentage to 2669.89, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained +0.85% to 21423.82, India’s Sensex 30 recovered +2.75% (after the prior day’s loss of -4.18%) to 13454, while the Nikkei 225 lost just -0.21% to 13237.89.

European stocks this morning are being hit about -1.0%. At least the UK FTSE 100 is down -0.99% to 5422, while the French CAC is down -1.28% to 4288, and the German DAX -1.13% to 6282.

Crude Oil futures are down -$1.04/bbl to 144.25. The $USD is up to 73.015, and the Euro down a bit to 1.5628. The DJIA futures is at 11271 down -17, but the same as yesterday morning at this time.

Spot prices at 9:30am ET for gold, palladium, platinum, and silver are down a bit to: 932.00, 450, 2008, and 18.01, respectively.

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Comments & Outlook

A couple days ago, I opined that commodity exchanges would possibly raise margin requirements, and that the ECB would raise rates, “but that just might not rally the Euro and Gold”. Yes, I seem to have been right on all counts.

Sometimes, as they say, a plan comes together—even if it’s not my plan, just my figuring out in advance what somebody else’s plan is likely to be. That’s the way to play the game.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
PBR	65.72	85.56	51.90	36.90
EXC	90.46	83.79	63.72	58.33
ECA	88.91	81.87	60.02	41.57
TS	67.09	80.91	73.35	44.63	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-07-02 at $68.92, -2.66% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
TT	46.49	76.65	65.62	56.92
WMT	56.60	72.76	51.57	43.09
STO	35.95	72.01	52.40	36.72
COST	72.23	71.82	57.88	62.37
GGB	21.41	70.95	46.60	26.40
GG	45.26	70.72	67.70	59.44	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-07-02 at $46.01, -1.63% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CVX	98.63	70.70	61.23	51.13
DNA	77.94	54.18	64.70	71.22
GSK	46.77	49.19	66.97	81.66

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
ERJ	24.42	14.32	6.92	5.50	Accumulation Zone (for 23 days)
UBS	20.32	14.79	14.38	33.84	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $20.32, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BC	10.15	16.38	12.76	23.81	Accumulation Zone (for 5 days)
WFMI	22.71	18.58	16.15	13.90	Accumulation Zone (for 6 days)
GOL	9.30	20.36	20.06	11.85	Accumulation Zone (for 6 days)
CCL	31.89	21.86	20.70	24.40	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
DB	87.12	23.62	8.72	37.98	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $87.12, +0.00% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
SBUX	15.56	23.75	31.33	27.79
BDK	56.53	24.30	17.86	35.79	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $56.53, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
TGP	25.19	25.86	22.74	15.80	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
WAG	31.45	25.96	22.27	12.42	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
GE	26.91	26.10	20.31	41.18	Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-30 at $26.69, +0.82% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
TM	92.00	26.11	32.25	23.26
SNDK	18.43	26.61	22.76	26.09	Accumulation Zone (for 10 days)
WHR	62.69	27.91	24.19	39.42	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $62.69, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
NOK	24.50	27.92	25.16	46.19
JCP	36.69	28.05	33.41	46.11
BA	64.47	28.08	23.51	17.01	Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
AET	37.14	28.62	22.56	13.48	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
KSS	42.52	29.25	41.53	53.18
GFI	12.33	29.44	43.84	61.02
DOW	34.10	29.97	21.19	20.53	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
DEO	71.49	30.12	16.39	35.65	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $71.49, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UTX	61.05	30.21	20.07	28.52	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $61.05, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
TGT	46.90	30.48	23.18	33.62	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-07-01 at $47.53, -1.33% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
IBN	27.13	31.33	13.00	15.71	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-07-01 at $27.43, -1.09% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
ERTS	43.98	31.96	29.99	35.65
SWK	44.37	33.23	23.47	39.41
CHA	51.92	33.53	24.93	24.22
PAYX	31.04	33.59	23.82	33.86
KO	51.48	34.46	17.65	30.52
ABV	59.78	34.52	20.34	16.99
CSCO	23.12	34.58	30.81	25.87
RY	44.01	34.77	29.12	28.57
HDB	71.26	35.06	14.86	28.72
YHOO	21.35	36.34	19.57	40.51
OXPS	21.50	37.15	38.66	25.86
WBK	94.55	37.36	23.18	41.11
HBC	75.96	37.52	25.95	28.13
INTC	20.66	39.61	34.50	21.39
DIS	30.90	40.01	33.10	27.80
VCP	26.05	43.12	30.26	13.72
CHL	65.91	43.82	25.25	39.63
NKE	58.52	44.36	30.39	20.21
VIP	27.05	45.42	29.65	29.01
CHRW	52.37	46.36	28.81	15.62
MBT	72.08	46.41	31.82	18.54
LLTC	31.67	46.96	33.95	27.82
MICC	95.00	48.01	34.99	14.62
NUE	62.54	49.02	33.13	17.10
ORCL	20.73	50.98	41.33	28.30
RIO	32.08	51.13	29.83	22.61
PDA	48.36	51.63	30.86	15.18
IBKR	30.24	51.95	42.66	16.84
ABB	27.37	53.34	36.50	28.14
IMO	52.93	54.93	35.03	23.45
TCK	44.43	57.46	43.85	26.20
RIMM	115.04	58.20	40.17	27.38
SYT	58.22	65.45	42.83	25.54
ATVI	30.90	68.40	45.68	20.38
GGB	21.41	70.95	46.60	26.40

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MRK	38.45	0.41	1.08%	6.22%	8.01%	-1.13%	-32.98%	0.23%	-32.92%	-22.84%
VZ	35.75	0.12	0.34%	4.20%	-2.05%	-8.24%	-17.26%	-6.09%	-17.65%	-15.12%
AXP	40.24	0.62	1.56%	3.47%	-5.61%	-15.16%	-21.16%	-13.80%	-20.17%	-35.53%
PFE	17.75	0.13	0.74%	3.38%	-0.11%	-4.93%	-22.52%	-16.82%	-23.43%	-31.23%
PG	63.67	0.98	1.56%	2.28%	-1.90%	-4.50%	-11.95%	-9.65%	-11.95%	3.04%
XOM	88.27	0.86	0.98%	2.15%	2.89%	-1.16%	-5.60%	0.05%	-5.93%	3.41%
GE	26.91	0.40	1.51%	1.43%	-3.58%	-13.36%	-26.80%	-28.88%	-26.88%	-30.47%
JNJ	65.12	0.48	0.74%	1.34%	0.77%	-2.75%	-1.20%	-0.23%	-1.23%	5.12%
MCD	57.19	-0.24	-0.42%	1.31%	-2.39%	-1.48%	-1.57%	1.69%	-1.28%	11.26%
CVX	98.63	1.21	1.24%	1.25%	1.83%	-1.36%	5.53%	12.44%	4.25%	14.25%
WMT	56.60	0.10	0.18%	-0.40%	-1.89%	-5.35%	20.68%	3.04%	22.04%	16.77%
MMM	69.46	0.98	1.43%	-1.14%	-6.29%	-10.37%	-16.02%	-13.36%	-16.01%	-21.01%
IBM	119.54	0.44	0.37%	-1.31%	-4.38%	-6.95%	14.18%	3.03%	13.96%	12.16%
DIS	30.90	0.19	0.62%	-2.00%	-6.05%	-10.41%	-2.95%	-2.00%	-2.74%	-10.54%
DD	41.80	0.15	0.36%	-2.38%	-11.81%	-12.42%	-4.44%	-14.83%	-5.17%	-19.82%
T	32.58	-0.31	-0.94%	-2.66%	-7.31%	-17.44%	-20.54%	-16.48%	-21.29%	-21.49%
HPQ	43.44	-0.17	-0.39%	-2.75%	-6.76%	-10.45%	-12.79%	-7.50%	-12.51%	-4.70%
UTX	61.05	1.35	2.26%	-2.77%	-11.29%	-12.75%	-18.83%	-13.72%	-19.97%	-15.76%
JPM	35.31	0.71	2.05%	-2.78%	-8.64%	-16.13%	-16.27%	-23.70%	-15.69%	-28.44%
KO	51.48	0.11	0.21%	-3.27%	-3.52%	-9.98%	-15.73%	-14.99%	-16.60%	-2.68%
INTC	20.66	-0.27	-1.29%	-4.31%	-9.58%	-13.45%	-18.50%	-5.79%	-16.25%	-15.98%
C	16.82	-0.02	-0.12%	-4.81%	-16.61%	-20.74%	-41.84%	-30.95%	-41.86%	-67.57%
CAT	70.31	-0.11	-0.16%	-5.34%	-11.54%	-15.01%	-0.45%	-8.77%	-0.10%	-9.85%
BA	64.47	0.57	0.89%	-5.48%	-16.22%	-16.61%	-25.57%