The announcement of higher NYMEX margin requirements for natgas and gold scared traders and drove the $USD higher.

Also, after the Saudi Oil minister made remarks that indicated his country would not increase production levels, Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed at $145.29, an increase of +1.72/bbl. Until that point in the morning, there had been a lift to stocks, but then the price of oil zoomed, the $USD rocketed from under 72.40 to 73.20 in minutes (presumably due to the probable impact of $145 oil on the US economy) and that put a damper on share prices.

In any case, higher crude oil prices don’t sometimes translate into high share prices of the oils stocks, and today that happened as XLE was the biggest losing sector ETF for the session, dropping -1.5%. Traders are looking forward to what higher prices will mean to the economy, and they believe that demand will drop.

Traders are also concerned that the higher margin requirements at NYMEX will cool speculation.

By the close in New York at 1:00pm, the DJIA gained +73.03 +0.65% to 11288.54, but the S&P 500 (+1.35 +0.11% to 1262.90), NASDAQ Composite (-6.08 -0.27% to 2245.38), and Russell 2000 small caps (-6.56 -0.98% to 665.78) went in a different direction.

Along with XLE (-1.5%), the losing industry groups were NatGas ($XNG -2.7%) and Oil Services ($OSX -1.7%). The winners were the Industrials and Conglomerates sector (XLI +1.4%) and the Drugs industry group ($DRG +1.9%).

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: WBK (+4.4%) and GSK, SU and NOK (each up +3.5%). The losers were: GOL (-7.6%) and AET (-6.7%), each on elevated volume, plus GGB (-5.0%).

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) dropped -0.24% to 115.88, but there was little movement in yields across the spectrum.

As expected, but despite signs of weakening economic growth, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.25%. This was the first rate increase in a year and is seen as an attempt by the ECB to suppress escalating inflation.

US payrolls in June contracted for the sixth consecutive month. Companies facing write-downs and rising costs or lower demand are cutting back. The Labor Department has reported that Nonfarm payrolls fell by 62,000, slightly more job losses than consensus expectations. The unemployment rate held at 5.5%. May payrolls were revised down by 13,000 to also show a 62,000-job decrease.

The US Dollar index ($USD) rocketed higher at about 10am ET for an hour from about 72.38 to 73.20 before settling back to a close of 72.72 (+0.91%). The Euro (-1.17% to 1.5693), Yen (-0.85% to 93.66), Pound (-0.59% to 1.9811) and Canadian Loonie (-0.64% to 98.05) all pulled back against the US Dollar.

$GOLD lost -$12.90/oz to 933.60 and Crude Oil ($WTIC) lifted by $1.72/bbl to 145.29, another record-setting weekly close.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed. The Australia All-Ords gained +1.49% to 5170; Shanghai lost the same percentage to 2669.89, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained +0.85% to 21423.82, India’s Sensex 30 recovered +2.75% (after the prior day’s loss of -4.18%) to 13454, while the Nikkei 225 lost just -0.21% to 13237.89.

European stocks this morning are being hit about -1.0%. At least the UK FTSE 100 is down -0.99% to 5422, while the French CAC is down -1.28% to 4288, and the German DAX -1.13% to 6282.

Crude Oil futures are down -$1.04/bbl to 144.25. The $USD is up to 73.015, and the Euro down a bit to 1.5628. The DJIA futures is at 11271 down -17, but the same as yesterday morning at this time.

Spot prices at 9:30am ET for gold, palladium, platinum, and silver are down a bit to: 932.00, 450, 2008, and 18.01, respectively.

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Comments & Outlook

A couple days ago, I opined that commodity exchanges would possibly raise margin requirements, and that the ECB would raise rates, “but that just might not rally the Euro and Gold”. Yes, I seem to have been right on all counts.

Sometimes, as they say, a plan comes together—even if it’s not my plan, just my figuring out in advance what somebody else’s plan is likely to be. That’s the way to play the game.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.

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10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

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15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities

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20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

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25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

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30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

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35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

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40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

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45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities

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50 (telecom: IYZ)

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55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap-up