Cara 100 Update:

Downgrade:

TGT - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

Target Price Lowered:

MICC - from $130 to $105 @ Morgan Joseph
YHOO - from $28 to $26 @ Stifel Nicolaus

CP- you're not the only one...i could say the same about any number of ST positions lately: UAUA, EPI, IBN, TTM, even the fund positions in financials/air transport...

on the other hand, i've dodged bullets in OEX puts, SKF in both directions, and had the good fortune to re-enter SNDK yesterday (a day after i first thought about it)...

it all works out in the end...

good luck today...

looks like i also dodged a bullet in BA...a sell-off over the next few days may provide another entry...

WELCOME TO THE USA: THAT'S THE UNITED SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA.

Saharan sun to power European supergrid

Vast farms of solar panels in the Sahara desert could provide clean electricity for the whole of Europe, according to EU scientists working on a plan to pool the region's renewable energy.

The idea is gaining growing political support in Europe with both Gordon Brown and Nicholas Sarkozy recently giving backing to the north African solar plan.

http://tinyurl.com/5prql2

Paulson may intend to come to the aid of hedge funds:

"We also need additional powers to manage the resolution, or wind-down, of large non-depository financial institutions, such as larger hedge funds, so as to limit the impact of a failure on the broader financial system."

http://tinyurl.com/6j5por

Under the Freddie/Fannie bailout bill the debt limit will be raised 800 billion dollars to $10.6 trillion from the current $9.815 trillion.

http://tinyurl.com/5wvap3

[Didn't the government just tell us that the Freddie/Fannie bailout would cost a mere 25 billion?
It has taken 200 years for this country to accumulate 5 trillion in debt but a mere 8 years to accumulate another 5 trillion in debt]

BA - I almost lost my position (basis:$65.88), stop limit $67.40. Cancelled the order due to the drama...over an excellent stock.

2nd - BA - I hope you get your basis, my best was $64.55.

I hate it when ultras don't act like they're supposed to. Maybe I'll just use margin and non-ultra ETFs, if they track better.

Fatty - Which ultras are you talking about, UOY/DOY?

These were acting strange upon intro, for about a week, tracked well afterwards....

OEBTP-> 3 contracts at 8.50...

OK, UOY/DOY aren't ultras.

should cover my 19.20 spot silver short but... Greed has me in its crosshairs. Pray armageddon is delayed for a couple more weeks.

SKF this morning, for ex. But whether it's ultra short, ultra long, QID / QLD, SKF / UYG, DDM / DXD, anything: none track well enough consistently.

QQQQ @ $44.80

Tick and Trin 10 minute chart (scroll down)
{you have to refresh your browser throughout the day]

http://tinyurl.com/ticktrin10min

Check out the recent chart of MKTY.

Most interesting.

t6 - Nothing wrong with taking partial profits and letting the rest ride.

out of SNDK at 14.34...

FRE/FNM - Americans should demand new management, Ron Paul should choose the successors.

SLW: Someone was talking about filling gaps. I'd say SLW just filled it's gap (close enough 14.11 vs 14.15).

With respect to whether gaps get filled, it probably depends on the current environment of the market. I think the current market is favorable to filling.

scaling back into SKF at 120...

Cara 100 CHRW being brutalized.

Amazing how refiner stocks are so volitle in lieu of the fact these companies consistantly show huge profits...

Just bought:

SRS 100 $89.30

OEBTP-> 5 contracts at $8.00

SKF- adding at 117.66...

Tele - Re: Gaps and SLW. That was me. And yes I watched it fill it's gap this morning. Good learning experience. I missed my chance to sell in the 15 - 16 area and accumulate more shares for the future new high, but it's OK. There will always be another chance in the future.

FRE/FNM as trading vehicles probably made someone's year the past week (and destroyed a few portfolios as well)...just unbelievable..

Buy 200 Shares of SKF
Details Filled at $116.5995

JIM,

am I getting this right, that the link you provided to TICK and TRIN is real time as long as I refresh the page?

AES

Yes, that's correct. You can see the date and time at top left in the chart.

JIM

great thank you...

Well, after I puked up my breakfast over the HB&B friends and family bailout news, I called my district Rep (who I didn't vote for), and my 2 Senators (1R, 1D), read them the riot act, then sent their numbers to folks I work with.

All you non-US citizens, wish us luck!

I am wanting to get back into SKF, but I don't want to catch a falling knife today...

I might wait until Friday. Looks like the government is going to bail out everyone!

Amen Bill! Clinton got the poor and disadvantaged off the welfare roles, now how do we get the rich and advantaged off the gov't dole?

OEBTP- added 2 contracts at 6.80...that's it, man...willing to plunk down only so much at the baccarat table...

I bailed out with a $500 loss on OEBTP, the market looks like it wants to run higher on the government housing bailout...

Down a few hundred on SRS too! But I will hold on to that...Rest is in cash.

XLF down 1.8%
SKF down 10%

Fellas, the SKF & SRS are not for the feint of heart. Why not wait for the dust to settle?

I meant XLF up 1.8%.

But now I see it's cleared 2%!

looks like st trade in SKF is now long term holding?

I'm keeping my longs a bit longer, looking for reverse losses there and use the experience to construct a catapult. Or maybe a reverse drag-shoot...

GFI - Down 5.9%; exited yesterday @ 12.58 on drop in spot gold below 950; re-entered this a.m. @ 11.86. Probably gonna get bloody hands.

closed QQQQ @45.73 - that's way too much excitement for me before even lunchtime.

I'm confident XLF would be a good choice (a little birdie told me this a couple days ago).

vinod- that's right...it could be 3 hours instead of 30 minutes...

Sell 200 Shares of SKF
Filled at $118.70

price of gold has dropped about 5% in 24 hours - from 975 to 925. Just free market forces at work, I'm sure ...

"If I were a US taxpayer, I would call my federal representatives today and tell them that if any of them voted for the Paulson package, I wouldn't be voting for or financially supporting them ever again."

Bill here's how our system works:

I have written scores of letters to my representatives — they never see them. A prepared reply is sent, but not always to the issue of my letter and never addressing my specific comment or question.

The most recent from them was in response to the most negative, sarcastic one I've ever sent. They began with the usual, "Thank you for your interest..."

A taxpayer has no more chance of communicating with congress than he has changing the board membership at a public company.

I worked on dozens of corporate annual reports for several local companies between 1966 and 2006. Each company had boards made up of the CEOs from the others. They voted each other great benefits and pay packages. Their performance was irrelevant. Example: one year with a loss of 23.75% in earnings the CEO got a 6-figure bonus.

The same incestuous situation exists between corporations, congress, agency watchdogs, insurers, and Wall St.

I would need to threaten violence before anyone noticed me. After the security failures leading uo to 9/11, I'm not even sure if that would do it.

vinod-following you out at 18.70...

The ten year note has gone from 3.8% yield to almost 4.2% yield in a week. Traders are ignoring this but if it continues it will make the whole economic situation worse as higher interest rates are the last thing a leveraged economy need. The selloff could be a reaction to the Fannie/Freddie bailout as the US commits to destroying its balance sheet further.

2nd

SRS getting close to 52 week low
Let us know if time to get in and hold for a while?
Or
Every one will be bailed out and they are going tostick it to us taxpayers, who is not going to go under

DUG/SMN is wild today

I heard on CNBC that the increase in interest rates is because of increased economic activity, which is good for stocks!

Maybe it is just a rotation out of bonds into stocks?

RE: SKF

It would not surprise me to see it re-test the $135-140 area by Friday. Traders have to just love this volatility.

Disclosure: Small position at $117.49.

GRYM - It's time to demonstrate on the mall. Bring tar, feathers, and pitchforks.

Could be a rotation but somehow I doubt traders are rotating from bonds to financials and homebuilders. We shall see.

Useful review of gold exploration in the Americas -
big on Nevada, Colombia, Aurelian, etc.

http://tinyurl.com/6mydhf

Head & Shoulders on the $BKX?

vinod - The US taxpayer always gets stuck with the bill. Even if he looses his home and job. (Circular reasoning -> death spiral?).

What we're witnessing is HB&B exploiting the American dream in order to get their hands in the cookie jar.

I see TSO is getting its daily hammering...down about 8% today

Nice spike top and reversal in the $BKX which is heading to negative on the day after being up > 4%. The rally may correct for a few days now.

I can't help feeling that risk is going up as short sellers are cleaned out of the worst stocks. There will be no one to buy on the way down now.

SKF heading green soon ? We shall see ...

Using Bill's language I emailed my Senators like others have, concluding with the statement that I would never support them again if they voted For Sec'y Paulsons bailout scheme. I received a form respose from both acknowledging receipt and nothing much else.

I guess they don't really care as long as they get my taxes to spend on themselves and their friends. Of course they know that the penalties are much too high for any individual to refuse to pay taxes. So there is really not much we can do, except that there is a certain amount of satisfaction in having sent the email. Now when I receive calls for money from their campaigns I will have a good reason to say no.

DavidV

FYI on refiners

http://tinyurl.com/5oy9md

When a bazooka goes off in the forest, does it make a noise?

There's not any question in my mind that regulators will get what they want, the taxpayer has been pre-conditioned into saying YES to whatever government decides. Isn't it amazing, considering the unanimous sentiment for the "war on terror"?

SOSDD!!!!

Cheap commodities party over for today

But lessmore! Haven't you seen the videos on how there is no firm law requiring people to pay income taxes! :)

mebea:
"no firm law requiring people to pay income taxes"

Wasn't that Wesley Snipes' unsuccessful defense in his tax evasion case?

GFI - @ 12.13; 2-min & 5-min STO(21,3) and W%R suggest it's time to tighten stop. Not advice; DYODD.

Cramer was right last night when he said, you want to know what the markets are going to do? just look at oil.

As long as oil is coming down, stocks up, dollar up, gold down!- and don't even think about juniors! Isn't it just that simple?

GFI -Current resistance @ 12.15 is exactly (to the penny) at the 9:30 EDT early morning high.

BDK - Earnings report this friday morning, 7/27.

lol! I'm not sure about that case but I know there is a group of people dedicated to bringing this to the higher courts.

"You know what's f*cked-up about taxes? You don't even pay taxes. They take tax. You get your check, money gone. That ain't a payment, that's a jack.!" - Chris Rock

If anyone is intersted, here is a good article about refiners and the crack spread.

Tracking The Crack Spread

http://tinyurl.com/5g859v

Sen. Dodd, recipient of sweetheart loan from Countywide, it on TV tooting his horn about bail out of Fannie and Freddie. Deplorable.

BOA having trouble? "On-Line investment service is an unsuitable vehicle for trading the stock markets. Way too unstable."

Who are the REAL terrorists???

...and the latest from the Royal Camp of the Truly GUTLESS....is that if Obama is elected, the only people to be prosecuted will be the MOST EGREGIOUS offenders.

Given the traitorous events of the last eight years that could include half the population of
Washington, D.C.

It is with great reluctance that I must conclude that with a "leader"(?) like Obama, my generation could have...and probably WOULD HAVE...Lost WWII.

Now I must choose whether to vote for Nader or Barr.

Whatever happens in November...AMERICA LOSES !!!!

Ryder beat estimates, narrows (not lowered) forecast, and dropped 8%. Currently down 7%.

Weird chart though, yesterday powered through downtrending highs, but i guess on meager volume. Todays downward plunge is shaping up to be on much higher volume.

Will hold on to my Jan puts for a while longer...

Ronbon -

I have no idea what you are referring to.

2nd_ave, "you rule" re UAUA. It would have never occurred to me to buy an airline stock, and even if it had, I would not have bought it unless I saw you buy it. I did add a personal touch though :), as I have waited for a convincing turnaround of UAUA before actually buying, but I was ready to jump in, thanks to you!

Now VLO is going down under once again -- let's get VLO up to its target of $44 (mentioned in the link you sent yesterday)! :)

DavidV

"It is with great reluctance that I must conclude that with a "leader"(?) like Obama, my generation could have...and probably WOULD HAVE...Lost WWII."

Mister, with all due respect (as you are the same age, it seems, as my father), you're full of what makes the grass grow green.

Reminder:

The message is clear: important people are listening to you, which is why I need you all to maintain high standards, and I frequently thank you for doing so.

Bill Cara

moab & number2son:

With many Democrats still fuming over the refusal of Democratic leaders like Speaker Nancy Pelosi to allow even impeachment hearings into detailed allegations of crimes by President Bush in office, close Obama adviser (and University of Chicago Law Professor) Cass Sunstein recently rejected the notion of prosecuting Bush officials for crimes such as torture and unlawful surveillance. After Sen. Obama’s unpopular vote on the FISA bill, it has triggered a blogger backlash — raising questions about the commitment of the Democrats to do anything other than taking office and reaping the benefits of power.

The exchange with Sunstein was detailed by The Nation’s Ari Melber. Melber wrote that Sunstein rejected any such prosecution:

Prosecuting government officials risks a “cycle” of criminalizing public service, [Sunstein] argued, and Democrats should avoid replicating retributive efforts like the impeachment of President Clinton — or even the “slight appearance” of it.

Sunstein did add that “egregious crimes should not be ignored,” according to one site, click here. It is entirely unclear what that means since some of us take the views that any crimes committed by the government are egregious. Those non-egregious crimes are precisely what worries many lawyers who were looking for a simple commitment to prosecute crimes committed by the government.

We will have to wait for a further response from Sunstein, but liberal groups are up in arms given his close association with Sen. Obama.

Sunstein and I were on opposite sides on the Clinton impeachment. While I voted for Clinton and came from a well-known democratic family in Chicago, I believe (and still believed) that Clinton was rightfully impeached for lying under oath. One of the objections that I made in an academic writing at the time was that some professors seemed to accept that Clinton did commit perjury but argued that it should not have been prosecuted as an impeachable offense — or a criminal offense. As with the current controversy, many argued that some crimes could be prosecuted while others tolerated or excused. It was the same egregious versus non-egregious distinction. Obviously, it could be argued that perjury is not an impeachable offense — though I strongly disagree with this view. However, many also opposed any criminal prosecution in the Clinton case. At the time, many cited the dangers to the presidency in such cases as raising the appearance of political prosecutions (much like the current rationale with Bush). I view the dangers as far worse when you fail to act in the face of a crime committed by a president, even one who I supported. I feel equally strongly that President Bush should be subject to impeachment based on the commission of the crimes of torture and unlawful surveillance.

The main concern with Sunstein’s reported comment is how well they fit within the obvious strategy of the Democratic party leaders: to block any prosecution of either President Bush or his aides for crimes while running on those crimes to maintain and expand their power in Washington. The missing component in this political calculus is, of course, a modicum of principle.

Here’s the problem about “avoiding appearances.” There seems ample evidence of crimes committed by this Administration, in my view. To avoid appearances would require avoiding acknowledgment of those alleged crimes: precisely what Attorney General Mukasey has been doing by refusing to answer simple legal questions about waterboarding.

How about this for an alternative? We will prosecute any criminal conduct that we find in any administration, including our own. Now, that doesn’t seem so hard. There is no sophistication or finesse needed. One need only to commit to carry out the rule of law.

The combination of Obama’s vote to retroactively grant immunity for the telecoms and Sunstein’s comments are an obvious cause for alarm. We have had almost eight years of legal relativism by both parties. For a prior column on the danger of relativism in presidents, click here A little moral clarity would be a welcomed change.
------------------------------

It was on Olbermann's telecast last nite.

proudPapa -

Thanks for the tips on R. I am still holding on my "shorts". The charts - weekly and monthly are looking parabolic and bearish. If it closes below yesterday's open, it looks to trade lower for a couple days or so.

I digged around a bit. R rebounded the fastest among the transport group. I guess some are fueling the stock before earning report. I find it interesting that R -

- tightened the earning estimates.
- worked to reduce the cap. spending.
- revenue has recuded.

I interpret this to be tough quarters ahead, and they are making precausionary steps.

anyone buying VLO (or any of the refiners) right now? i bought a few call options this morning when the stock was at $34.7. I like VLO the most out of any of these because it is still operating at a profit and with the heating season coming up soon, there will be downtime due to maintenance, etc., that will bring production offline and increase margins. i don't think investors are thinking ahead on this fact.

VLO reports earning on Monday. Last quarter, they revised the outlook about one month before the earning report and tanked the stock. However, they did not do so this quarter. They also annouced huge buy-back when the stock is trading $55. The analysts are bearish on refinery stock in general. I suspect that they will beat earning estimates. Just my 2-cents. (Long VLO, too long).

vinod- SRS-> even HOV is up 12% today...keep thinking back to what happened with FXP in May, so avoiding SRS for now...

WM just fell through 5.00 on heavy volume

SiO2- hope you still have those WM puts...

I might've spoken too soon, seems to be retesting. Eh, I'm too slow for this market.

WaMu is the biggest Savings and Loan. If it fails all hell is going to break loose. There is probably something there as most other banks are up.

Still holding those puts and SNDK calls 2nd. Agree, WaMu looks suspiciously weak.

I know this is trading site. But most of the masses, buy and hold. I for one never sold on Bill's sell signals. I have to admit that I didn't believe in it. But now I do. I figured it was best to follow the Gold and Silver trend (buy and hold till the end), which should at least last till 2013 or even 2015.

I'm fully invested in Gold and Silver mining shares (100%). As I truly believe that's where the future is. However, I can understand why the masses are reluctant to invest in gold and silver mining shares.

Example: SLW.to - May 2006 high $13.40 CDN. In 26 months, as of today, it is only up approx. 6.2%. I'm not giving up as I bought it at a lower price than that.

Now I understand (2 years experience) how important it is to follow Bill's sell signals. Right now I feel I'm getting nowhere, certainly not beating inflation.

This is just my perspective on why the masses as not embraced Gold and Silver mining shares as of yet.

Sandra

Thanks, QT, for the links on refiner crack spreads. They reminded me that there are much better informed traders than I am in the refining business, and so the only thing left for me is to buy low and sell high. :) So I have just bought some VLO shares once again at $33.56 (in addition to the puts I sold), since I sold all the shares I was holding at $35.3 a few days ago. I am putting a sell limit order at $35 for these shares -- long live the volatility! :)

DavidV

The "masses" I come in contact with aren't aware of any of the things that are discussed here.

Had dinner with a couple the other night. The wife told a story about an encounter with a "homesless" family (the woman is a teacher...one of the kids goes to her school)in a Walmart parking lot. They were asking for money for food. The woman knew the kid. She said loudly and with pride..."I gave them the Republican response...I told them to get a job!"

School teacher... She is very outspokenly sympathetic to the plight of the whales, though.

DavidV

I'm still have TSO @ 19.24.... I am banking on this summer's rally*** to sweep up the refiner sector with it.

[***will start after this next decline if you subscribe to the Elliot Wave Principle]

have:holding
[english is my 7th language :-)]

SandraT, there are a lot of good companies in the Cara 100 that you can use your new-found appreciation of the buy/sell signals on to diversify your holdings a bit. 100% into gold and silver seems a bit over the top.

maggy - I must admit that I've never been homeless or without employment, but that doesn't keep me from having sympathy towards others less fortunate. You're friend sounds like a good person, but I can't understand why she feels compelled to point out the obvious from her podium.

gold stocks got slaughtered today. Pick up some AUY today.

I just checked one year change in price
GLD +34%
AUY +2.4% and
GFI -33%
I am tracking these before I enter trade

Mackinaw - The 100% position seems too much. I agree. But in the early or middle 1990's, had someone been 100% tech all the way up to 2000, then unload, or even unload in 1999, they would have made a bundle. That's what I meant by following the trend all the way up. But without selling at intermediate tops, and rebuying at lows, then it can be very frustrating. I can even see why some people sell at near bottoms (out of fear), which I won't do.

I know SLW will be much higher in 2010. (LOL - I'm laughing right now, cause that's what I thought when I bought it in 2006, see where it's at now, not much higher).

Nonetheless, I've learned a valuable lesson by not selling.

I'm presently studying Bill 100 Cara stocks. And will most probably diversify just a bit at the next sell signal.

The masses are still not in on this (gold/silver). They are told that the volatility in these shares are not worth it. In the long run they are, but in the short, intermediate term they problably are not. Especially the Juniors.

Family members just look at me funny when I mention gold and silver stocks. So far they are not interested.

They're all in TSX index, cdn oil sands and China , banks.

I guess I posted this to show how we can sometimes get blinded and drunk on our own kool-aid. Thinking that our precious stock will be trading much, much higher 2 years from now.

My post is basically to acknowledge Bill's Buy/Sell signal, which I was reluctant to implement. I lost alot of paper profit, but I won't be missing the next signal.

Thanks all

Timing is everything.

TWIMC: If you are a believer, as I am, that the financials have a long way to go before the mortgage mess is over and they become profitable again... You may be interested in hedging SKF by buying some UYG. Might as well pick up a bit while the big boys run them back up for a spell.

Chickenpookie....

I guess what I was trying to convey was that people seem a lot less sympathetic now to those in need.... What the current climate has given people is an excuse, it seems to me, to be openly rude and inconsiderate and really kind of numb. It didn't used to be the case....I notice it a lot and others have commented on it.

If I mentioned gold, silver or "fiat" currency to most I come in contact with I would probably just get the blank stare they reserve for the village idiot.

Now Angelina, Brad or Ms. Spears would a whole different thing.....

Anyone have an opinion on YHOO? Seems to have fallen off a cliff in the last hour of trading with no news.

Off the topics here, but I am compelled to chime in -

My children and I served at a soup kitchen for homeless in Chicago reguarly. There are many reasons people become homeless, for one reason or the other. This issue is far greater than I can comprehend. We choose to acknowledge that we are blessed to be on the prosperous side of the spectrum and humbly serve where we can. If choices are often easy and obvious, the world would have less problems.

QCOM's earning report delayed, but stock price spike up. Any clues?

Many of the homeless are mentally ill and are incapable of holding a job. They were permanently housed in mental institutions until those were closed in the 1980's to save money. Eastern Europe is following this example and putting the mentally ill out on the street in order to cut the public budget.

Putting these people on the street does not serve the public well.

Ryder: anyone suckered in yesterday got creamed today, down 10% (on almost twice as much volume as yesterdays climb). I'm holding for a visit to the 200MDA, about another 30% down...

SandraT: :)

Hmmm Koolaid!

:) thinking back to Guyana, I can't help thinking that the recent package is in reality Koolaid to the banks...Which actually by pass thru is koolaid to us the taxpayer... That's disturbing to me, since it indicates we are quite close to the initial turn around point.

It's fascinating that People want to out guess the whole thing. Which is easiest to do in hindsight! So why not side step and wait? For this reason, Bills cash position, or Kaimu's gold positions etc are solid places to be. To decide later where you want to climb back up. Not practical trying to decide what to save when its all coming down around you. When it does tumble down, in the chaos afterward there will be a pause and time to best consider options.

The real benefit right now trading in this market is a chance to learn and practice. So I am trading for that one reason only. All money I have in this market is 100% losable in my mind. To free up to make wiser less attached decisions. This is a chance to learn how to listen to one's own spirit/insights rather than following the koolaid treats offered up.

Thanks to everyone :) it's a pleasure trading with you all!

On Homeless:

I am currently homeless by choice. Surfing between family and friends home.

I hold several jobs, I help people spiritually transform, teach Taoist retreats and help all 50 states in their Drug / Alcohol treatment systems at the national level.

There are no perfect solutions, and yes things are bad right now getting worse.

In all my years of helping people, what makes a difference is kindness.

When I have a home, I share it with the homeless. When on the street, I share laughter and hope.

It's not complicated. Except, people are unsure about what is in their own heart, uncertain about sharing.
Right now fear is being used to control people since it keeps us apart. Until this tactic changes, the homeless situation and other problems like drug use will get worse.

If you want to make a difference right now: it is very simple

give up the fear, and work towards kindness. It doesn't have to be all at once, and it does start simply and grows from simple acts.

It really is that simple. Not perfect, but simple.

Heh one last post

Moab:

One last quick point: Yes you are right about many mentally ill being released to the streets for various reasons.

I would like to add this...

You can't help everyone, and you can't help those who are not ready for help.

However, many people , decent people are out on the street who are open to help also. Some of the most wonderful friends of mine I have met this way. Incredible poets and souls wandering in the world.

You can't save the world, you can't save a nation, a state, etc

But you can save the occasional person, child and others who happen to cross your path.

Yes it also takes practice to learn who you can help and who you have to let wander. That has taken me years to learn. So I know how hard this can be. This is why fear wins out so often... fear is an easier path. To let pass by risk to keep personal comfort instead.

yet right now: in trading aren't we in the business of risk itself??

The process of helping others might be simple, but it's never ever easy. But so often what is worth doing is not easy :) that is part of the joy of learning and becoming more in the sharing.

Casey, great post. Lately I've been praying for the energy to discipline to keep my body strong, my mind clear, and my heart kind. Those things will get one through anything.

Casey

You might not be able to help everyone or save a nation, state, etc., but I do believe one person can make a difference. You may not recognize all the differences, but others can. Good luck in your travels.

From Barron
July 23, 2008, 2:58 pm
Banks, Airlines: One Extreme, Then Another; Decent Q From Hershey?; Frothy Bud
BEATEN SECTORS GO FROM OVER-SOLD TO OVER-BOUGHT
In retrospect, we owe the SEC an apology. The agency said there was a short trade on in the financials. And we expressed skepticism about the plan to deal with it. With the benefit of a full week’s worth of hindsight, it’s apparent there - in fact - was a short trade on for some of the worst-beaten stocks and bloodied sectors. The remarkable thing, though, isn’t how desperate the straits got. It’s how quickly the recovery has taken hold. In some cases, it could be argued, oversold has given way to over-bought conditions in the span of about a week. To wit: dating all the way back to July 15, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) has improved 40%. In five trading days. To turn that figure on its head, take a look at the Ultrashort Proshares Financials (SKF), the ETF that increases leverage to declines in the underlying sector. It’s declined 40% in that same span, plus another 3% in Wednesday’s trading. How about airline stocks? The Airline Index (XAL) has realized a gain of 52% in five sessions. Some of that may have been leveraged off fundamentals: promises of capacity cuts that would could help stoke demand, increase customers’ willingness to pay higher prices, and bring the revenue generated by a ticket sale more in line with the costs of flying that passenger. The retreat in oil prices the last several trading sessions likewise helped. But if ticket prices and costs could be brought into some kind of harmonic convergence, why are airlines waiting until the fourth quarter to make that happen? Wouldn’t they use the high-traffic summer season as their window of opportunity? Meanwhile, none of the big sector moves can compare with the recovery mounted by some casino operators. After fears that Vegas was, effectively, going out of business, gambling house names dropped to multi-year lows last week. Since July 15, however, shares of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) have risen 85%. Now that, folks, is how to cover a bet

After hours, taking some profits--sold half of DUG at 36.55. Letting remaining position run. Earlier in day, bought back at a small loss DUG calls.

BRAZIL

Expecting Brazilian real to retain strengthening trend as BZ CB raised interest rates 75 basis points to 13% tonight.

http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=662690

Disclosure: Long BZF.

Sandra.
I am also 100% gold stocks and did so/averaged in starting the summer of 2001 through till the spring of 02. I had never invested on my own at all till then but saw the trend change and moved on it. It has been kool aid ever since,but admittedly the downdrafts are tougher to bear now with the last yr being the most difficult.

A simple trading strategy could have maximized my great luck in timing and would have been better practise for the eventual top. That imho is the single most important thing, like Warren says per rule 1 and 2 "dont lose money"

I think the mother of all short squeezes
is going on in financial?

"people seem a lot less sympathetic now to those in need.... What the current climate has given people is an excuse, it seems to me, to be openly rude and inconsiderate.."

people generally respond in kind to the environment around them, so maybe you're right...i know many people think society has lost its innocence in many ways (long gone are the days when people expected kindness from strangers), but i don't think that's right...the world was as treacherous (if not more so) in the centuries leading up to the 20th/21st than they are today...it's just that most of us who grew up in the US in the fifties and sixties did so during a time of peace and prosperity, and maybe we unfairly judge society from that (unnatural?) perspective...

i like casey's approach, trying to be kind/helpful one encounter at a time...

Remember when the days were long
And rolled beneath a deep blue sky
Didn't have a care in the world
With mommy and daddy standin' by
But "happily ever after" fails
And we've been posisoned by thse fairy tales
The lawyers dwell on small details
Since daddy had to fly

But I know a place where we can go
That's still untouched by men
We'll sit and watch the clouds roll by
And the tall grass wave in the wind
You can lay your head back on the ground
And let your hair fall all around me
Offer up your best defense
But this is the end
This is the end of the innocence

O' beautiful, for spacious skies
But now those skies are threatening
They're beating plowshares into swords
For this tired old man that we elected king
Armchair warriors often fail
And we've been poisoned by thse fairy tales
The lawyers clean up all the details
Since daddy had to lie

But I know a place where we can go
And wash away this sin
We'll sit and watch the clouds toll by
And the tall grass waze in the wind
Just lay your head back on the ground
And let your hair spill all around me
Offer up your best defense
But this is the end
This is the end of the innocence

Who knows how long this will last
Now we've come so far, so fast
But, somewhere back there in the dust
That same small town in each of us
I need to remember this
So baby give me just one kiss
And let me take a long last look
Before we say goodbye

Just lay your head back on the ground
And let your hair fall all around me
Offer up your best defense
But this is the end
This is the end of the innocence

-Don Henley

vinod- were we not discussing the mother of all short-covering rallies a few short days ago? i need to schedule a few therapy sessions with Vad to understand why i exit so many positions right before they take off, man...LOL

vinod- don't get me wrong, though...we're more likely to see the mother of all corrections sometime this year...maybe the easy money has been made in this counter-trend rally? who knows...

SEC Short Sale Rule Could Create a Bubble in Financial Stocks - Wall Street backoffices that can’t adjust to the SEC’s emergency order, may not lend financial stocks. - http://wallstreetandtech.com/operations/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=3PFIQC4KYEEJEQSNDLPCKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=209101993&pgno=2

2nd
I have same feeling
got out of all my position before you did
but who new about naked short rules?
add that to lower oil price

ALOHA !!

THIRD WORLD STYLE ...

I urge you to go to the link to see the photo that is the subject of this article.

READ ON:
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Growing Gills

I took this photo the other day in New York. Not on some forgotten sidestreet in the south Bronx, not north of 125th, but right in the middle of Manhattan. I passed him, as others did, and kept walking for a minute or two. Then, remembering this incident, I went back to see if I should call an ambulance. By that time the police had arrived. One of the cops asked someone how long he'd been there. The answer: "From earlier today."

During the past couple of years, I've posted several times (presciently, it turns out) about New York City's growing quality of life problem. At this point it's undeniable: from the explosion in panhandling and homelessness, to the traffic congestion, to a mass transit system that's embarrassingly decrepit and disgusting and bursting at the seams. To be sure, New York has always had "issues" even in the best of times. But the city is also a national bellwether, ever more so as the financial industry supplants manufacturing as this country's raison d'être. So the above scene reminded me of the debate in the second video clip here. Bernie Sanders's point, while obviously simplistic, is valid. No, you don't see people prostrate in the streets and ignored by passers-by in Stockholm, Oslo, or Helsinki (and we don't need to spend any time on why that's the case). But nor do you see it in dozens of other large Western cities, some of which rank higher on this list than any city in the U.S. And I may be wrong, but I bet you don't see it in central Beijing either.

Aside from the larger debate about capitalism and utilitarianism, there's a more immediate political issue. If conservatism aspires to be anything more than a debating society, it needs to stipulate that levees and bridges must be maintained and people cannot lie in the streets in broad daylight in the major cities. When Jonah Goldberg advised New Orleans residents to "grow gills" during the early hours of Katrina, it wasn't just bad burlesque. It represented the ceding of responsibility for government's most basic functions to the Left. To do this permanently, either expressly or via the de facto effect of economic policies, would be a terrible mistake. And, ideologically at least, it's unnecessary. Hayek in The Road to Serfdom:

... there are two kinds of security: the certainty of a given minimum of sustenance for all and the security of a given standard of life, of the relative position which one person or group enjoys compared with others. There is no reason why, in a society which has reached the general level of wealth ours has, the first kind of security should not be guaranteed to all without endangering general freedom; that is: some minimum of food, shelter and clothing, sufficient to preserve health. Nor is there any reason why the state should not help to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance in providing for those common hazards of life against which few can make adequate provision.

Those of us who spent the past few years calling out the Titular Right didn't do so because we like taking long, warm showers with Democrats. It wasn't hard to see that the Republican claim on conservatism would discredit it and eventually lead to higher taxes, bigger government, and interference in free markets. The flawed economic policies imploded, and we got the latter two. The taxes will come next. This will be the legacy of the current administration and its enablers.

Recent events suggest that capitalism sometimes needs to be saved from itself. Looking at photos like the one above, it's hard not to think the same about conservatism.

posted by The Cunning Realist

Link: http://tinyurl.com/792nh

Has Bill ever discussed why he prefers GG over GLD?

[Bill Cara note: I have at various times stated that gold stocks ($XAU) would likely out-perform the bullion ETF (GLD), and vice versa. During a broad-based Bear market for stocks, for instance, the gold stocks ought to under-perform because (i) the shares are leveraged, and profits are usually slowing or declining during Bear markets, (ii) traders are not so inclined to chase stock prices higher in rallies, (iii) traders often sell due to margin calls, (iv) the company stock promoters are not so active at that time, (v) etc. Maybe somebody can show a comparative relative strength chart between a goldminer share index and the bullion price?]

ALOHA !!

I am now buying 100ozs of Au and 4,000oz Ag on the Sydney market ...

vinod- unfortunately, tbe same thing happened with EPI, TTM, IBN...i had a feeling you were right on with that call...then left the bulk of the move on the table...

i suspect kaimu has it right...no one's talking about gold and silver any more-> we're closing in on time to load up...think about it-> they're bidding up shares of financials and selling gold/silver/miners...what's wrong with this picture?

Hey ronbon, I'm very sorry about my earlier comment. I misunderstood your meaning. I agree that Bush should be impeached and I find it very discouraging that his administration has and continues to act with impunity. Obama does himself no credit by doing the "politically expedient" thing in not supporting impeachment.

Home builder Ryland (NYSE:RYL) reported a second-quarter net loss of $241.6 million, or $5.70 a share. Estimates (which were continuing to ratchet down from since last quarter were for a loss of about 80 cents).

This is one of the few major still trading above $20. They have tried to sell themselves as a cut above the rest. Now we know that was so much hot air.

I've been short this stock for awhile via puts. It belonged in the teens before this report. Now even more so.

And so it begins...

How did your congress person vote? Will the cost of every single irresponsible failure in America be foisted upon us taxpayers?

http://tinyurl.com/6jvv6d

The "Emporer has no clothes" Financial - what if all shorts exit and no one left to buy? Would that equate to free fall?

How has everyone been? Great I hope. I've been busy in the gardens and entertaining the kids but have been tuning in sometimes. I just read this article and thought everyone would be interested.

http://tinyurl.com/5txylz

The key point:

"Fannie Mae owns or guarantees $51.2 billion of subprime loans, those given to borrowers with bad credit histories, a category that makes up about 2 percent of its total mortgage holdings, according to the company's Web site. Subprime mortgages default at five times the rate of prime mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington.

Alt-A Mortgages

Fannie Mae also owned or guaranteed $344.6 billion of Alt-A mortgages, which are granted without full documentation of a borrower's income. Those loans represent about 13 percent of the company's holdings.

Less than 1 percent of its loans, or $20.6 billion, are payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages that let borrowers pay less than they owe each month, with the unpaid balance added to the principal. "

So 15% of Fannie Mae's portfolio is garbage right off the top. Then add in a few percent for the primes that blow up and we're looking at nearly a trillion in losses just for Fannie Mae.

There is no way the world will keep buying our debt if we do this. If this passes and Bush approves it I'm going long Gold and Oil and short the Dollar and riding it into the sunset.

Happy summer everyone.

Rob.

re India (PIN, EPI, INF, INP):

http://tinyurl.com/6obgd4

note that both UBS and HSBC have lowered year-end targets on the Sensex (to 15,500 and 14,000 respectively...down from 19,600 and 17,500)...HSBC also cut its year-end target for 2009 to 15,000 from 21,000...

above post: change INF to IFN...

(the Sensex closed at 14,942 july 23)...

Market dynamics - Dead cat bounce with a twist? I expect this rally will hold up for about another week or so. Rate of rise may increase a bit from here in light of today's announcements. After that, I feel shorts will prosper for a few months. Get your powder ready.

Good chance to get the last nickel outta my slightly red longs and refill the keg.

Meanwhile, letting Au come to me.

This is all based upon my opinion, DYODD Please.

Don't know about you guys, but I've been writing puts a few months out against selected gold miners and the GDX.

http://tinyurl.com/5gk4fe

Doesn't get much better than that.

ALOHA!!

Today I was riding scooters around some old farm roads in the hills here with my nephew and we stopped at the Kalapana Cafe for some ice tea, which is good on a hot day. When I got the change I studied a new $5 bill and it had Henry Paulson Jr's signature on it. I had to think about what sort of "ego trip" that must be for someone of his ilk, but then an AA saying came to mind ... "AA", meaning "Alcoholics Anonymous", that I always thought was incredible genius ... "ALL YOUR BEST THINKING GOT YOU HERE"! I think that about sums up the entire US GOVERNMENT and about 95% of US VOTERS! Take a long look in the mirror if you need a scapegoat for all your woes, because only you have the answers for "you" ... in the end the US government cannot help you!

maggy ... be a friend to your friend. Show her a better way and don't condemn.
give up the fear, and work towards kindness.
Thank you Casey.
I emailed both my senators with Bills words.
Thank you Bill.
Underwater SKF,MU,NOT,AUY.I have faith and I may have tomorrow, Thank you God.
favorite maybe Russian saying....
have faith and row to shore
peace from North Puget Sound

ALOHA !!

Anyone doubting that OBAMA will NOT bring about "CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN" needs to read this ...

READ ON:
With Goldman Sachs at the heart of Wall Street, and Wall Street at the heart of the US economy, few expects its power to wane. Indeed, The New York Times columnist David Brooks noted that Goldman Sachs employees have given more money to Barack Obama's campaign for president than workers of any other employer in the US. "Over the past few years, people from Goldman Sachs have assumed control over large parts of the federal government," Brooks noted grimly. "Over the next few they might just take over the whole darn thing."

ALOHA !!

Lets review a list of Goldman Sachs alumni who have left their marks on America and the rest of the globe ...

John Thornton

From his post as professor and director of global leadership at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the former Goldman Sachs co-chief operating officer John Thornton has become a highly-influential figure in the developing business and poltical inter-relations between the US and China. He was Goldman's boss in Asia in the mid-Nineties and remains well connected in the East and the West.

Duncan Niederauer

Wall Streeters joked about a Goldman Sachs "takeover" of the New York Stock Exchange. Hank Paulson, the Goldman boss on the NYSE board, moved to oust the chairman, Dick Grasso, and recommended the then chief operating officer of Goldman, John Thain, as Mr Grasso's replacement. Mr Thain modernised the exchange as demanded by Goldman, and Mr Thain's old Goldman deputy, Duncan Niederauer, is in charge.

Jon Corzine

The former co-chief executive of Goldman went into full-time politics in 1999, having lost the internal power struggle that preceded the company's stock-market flotation in 1999. He has been governor of New Jersey since 2006, having spent the previous six years in the US Senate. His 2000 Senate election campaign was then the most expensive ever in the US, and Corzine spent $62m of his own money.

Joshua Bolten

For five years until 1999, Mr Bolten served as director of legal affairs for Goldman based in London, effectively making him the bank's chief lobbyist to the EU. The Republican lawyer aided George Bush's 2000 election campaign, helped co-ordinate policy in the White House and has been the President's chief of staff since 2006.

Paul Deighton

The man heading London's planning for the 2012 Olympic Games, Paul Deighton amassed a fortune estimated at over £100m during his two decades at Goldman Sachs, where he had been one of its most powerful investment bankers.

Robert Rubin

A US Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, Mr Rubin could once again emerge as a powerful figure in Washington if Barack Obama wins the presidency, since he has maintained his influence on Democrat politics. Mr Rubin reached the second-highest rung at Goldman, becoming co-chief operating officer before joining the US government in 1993.

Gavyn Davies

The ex-chairman of the BBC still has the ear of Gordon Brown, to whom he has been a good friend and informal adviser. He is married to the Prime Minister's aide Sue Nye. Mr Davies spent 15 years as an economist at Goldman. He was commissioned to report on the future funding of the BBC by Mr Brown in 1999. Two years later, he was poached to chair it.

Jim Cramer

This former Goldman trader is, without question, the most influential stock pundit in the US. Hectoring and shouting his investment advice nightly on his CNBC show, Mad Money, he routinely moves share prices.
His primal scream against the Federal Reserve ("They know nothing") was a YouTube sensation last year, as the central bank refused to lower interest rates to ease the pain of the credit crisis on Wall Street.

Robert Zoellick

Goldman provided a lucrative home to Robert Zoellick, the neo-conservative Republican, between the time he quit as Condoleezza Rice's deputy at the State Department in 2006 (having not secured the job he coveted as Treasury Secretary, when it went to Hank Paulson) and his appointment last year as head of the World Bank. At Goldman he had acted as head of international affairs, a kind of global ambassador and networker-in-chief.

Mario Draghi

The head of the Italian central bank is another example of the revolving door between Goldman and public service. Mr Draghi had been an academic economist, an executive at the World Bank and a director-general of the Italian treasury before joining Goldman as a partner in 2002. He is becoming a significant figure in the response to the credit crisis, chairing the financial stability forum of central banks, finance ministries and regulators.

Malcolm Turnbull

Treasurer for the opposition Liberal Party, Mr Turnbull is one of the fastest-rising politicians in Australia. He was the aggressive advocate who took on and beat the British Government in the Spycatcher trial of the former MI5 agent Peter Walker, but he then pursued a career in business and ran Goldman Australia from 1997 to 2001, before jumping in to politics to serve as environment minister under John Howard.

Hank Paulson

Cometh the hour, cometh the man. President George Bush must be delighted he lured a reluctant Hank Paulson away from his $38m-a-year job as Goldman Sachs chief executive in 2006, just in time to deal with the Wall Street crisis that has engulfed the entire US economy.
The bird-watching enthusiast had been a surprising choice as Treasury secretary, since his environmentalism was at odds with much of Bush's policy.

[Bill Cara note: kaimu, I can immediately think of three more: (i) the chief trader for the FOMC of the Fed, (ii) Paulson's new assistant at Treasury, and (iii) the new head of the Bank of Canada. I am certain there are more. I am also sure there are alumni of Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc, in high level positions that "serve" the public. The question is how do those lists stack up against Goldman alumni, and how is it that Goldman's former people are getting virtually all the plum jobs. I think the public needs to know.]

First principles?

http://tinyurl.com/5gbcak

Back in the USSA

http://tinyurl.com/5r5qjo

Good morning.

Two Cara 100 Downgrades to report:

COST - to Neutral @ JP Morgan
TEF - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

---------------------------------------------------

Enjoy this BS Rally while you can.

Photogray.....

More an observation than a condemnation.

There are many things we think to ourselves.
When those thoughts are spoken they often taken on a life of their own and reveal much more than we want revealed. That is all.

Read Kaimu link to Cunning Realist above.

Cara 100 Update:

BA - Downgraded to Neutral @ Cowen & Co.

ALOHA !!

Ron ... Yes, I think the USSA like the USSR is facing a "monetary crisis" only everyone seems to be labeling it everything but that! I see and hear daily. "credit crisis" ... "housing crisis" ... "debt crisis" ... "gas crisis" ... "food crisis" ... the "crisis list" goes on and on, but nobody ever calls it what it rightfully is ... a full blown "monetary crisis"! If they did this whole thing would be done in a US FED mouse-clicking nano-second!! Nobody wants to face facts and that is why our US COMPTROLLER GENERAL, head of the GAO, wisely quit before he got sucked into the vortex of the financial coup-de-taut. What other kind of crisis can it be when the value of your money goes to crap? I see signs monetary velocity is rising and the demand for a US Peso is falling off a cliff. Start measuring everything using the price of gold not a US Peso and you get a better visual image of what is happening to America and you start understanding why "real money" needs to be suppressed at all costs by our FIAT MASTERS! Their kingdom is under siege and their exits are diminishing. In truth their only exit they've ever had has been the naive US TAXPAYER and even that exit is drying up fast! Who can truly endure increased taxes while record financial catastrophes surround us? You just posted an article on record high "food stamp" usage. That's the last vestige of civility and once the masses can no longer afford food they will take to the streets and that is not where this US government wants people to be, but I have a feeling our government has been preparing for that eventuality, much the same way the government of the USSR prepared for it, except that the USSR was overwhelmed by the masses in the end. I am not so much referring to the overwhelming masses of "people" as I am the overwhelming masses of DEBT, although they went hand-in-hand to collapse the politicos celeb of Communism whose names now have faded into the dustbins of failed political policies! The entire enchilada(borscht)collapsed ... money, military, government ... the IRON CURTAIN ... all of EMPIRE! And how is anything any different here in the USSA again? Someone please tell me how we, America, are so special that we can avert a similar monetary collapse simply based on our leaders charisma? NOT ... Not even our military charisma has much charm any more. We lost Vietnam and now we are showing the World what we showed Mother England back in 1775, that a few thousand well trained insurgents can contain a global military superpower into a quagmire of financial submission. No, Napoleon an ARMY TRAVELS ON ITS MONEY and as our beloved ex-US COMPTROLLER GENERAL pointed out on 60 Minutes we don't have any left! We are beyond the point of no return with regards to paying our debt off. Its so bad that like a befuddled and duped shop-a-holic whose credit card is maxed out all we can do now is barely struggle to pay off our "minimum due" on our debt! The interest due on our debt is at $500bil ... thats half a trillion before we even see a cent of principal repayment. Naturally, we could "start" to pay off this debt if our elected leaders had the backbone to halt all military operations, halt all entitlement checks, halt all government contracts of all types and kinds, in other words "eliminate government as we know it", but instead we read all day long about bailing out all US Banks and Wall Street and FanFred dis n' dat and anyone who has a pulse, a house and a vote! The WRITING IS ON THE WALL ... but nobody cares to read it! Instead we contract Halliburton and the US FED to whitewash it before anyone can make out the "Wheel O Fortune" message and our US Treasury Secretary is looking and acting more like Pat Sajak than the monetary savior Bush hoped for! It goes to show you that resumes, even tycoon Wall Street one's, are meaningless in the long run ... So now we are back to the question we should have been asking ourselves as voters since day one ... WHAT IS VALUE? We're lost and in a sea of risk and its been so long since monetary value has been discussed in public at the highest levels of government that I fear we are stuck with a lot of band-aids and no cure. I will be the first to say ... I'M EXHAUSTED! I am constantly feeling as if I am always one step ahead of financial limbo! COME ON ... AMERICA ... SNAP OUT OF IT!

Remember the fortune that the Evil Financial Short Cabal and the Equally Evil Oil Speculators were minting? The one that inspired 1000 Congressional hearings?

Not to worry, nothing to see here, they have given it all back the past week and a half, as per Jimmy Ray (hat tip AllanF).

OK, I will say it, this is the greatest short squeeze I have ever seen, and it is based on the coming dramatic drop in gasoline. There's just no place for it, no place to put it. And it is entirely unexpected. No hedge fund was prepared for this.

.........The stuff that is down, which has no bottom: ag, oil, gas, oil service, coal, minerals, steels.

We are seeing the unwinding of everything that has been going on for the last year. It is vicious, and it overwhelms the fundamentals like Washington Mutual (WM) -- a really bad quarter -- or Costco (COST).

These are gigantic moves, and they relate to a hedge-fund community that has completely and utterly been on the wrong side of the trade.

I have never seen anything like it. So much money, so wrong, so poorly positioned, producing an exact inversion of the gains that were made for the last year.

Just repealed.
Daily Options Report
by Adam Warner

vinod- IBN pulling back this morning...

ALOHA !!

vinod ... Adam Warner has "market perspective" but no "monetary perspective"! He is awash in "risk assessment" but no "value assessment" ... The ultimate end game will be "real wealth" versus "false wealth" not shorts versus longs. SMART MONEY is planning long term and they're planning MONEY not MARKET ... When money collapses only Wall Street will be left to care about Wall Street ... The public is always the last to know!

HB&B, hedge funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds all they are doing is trading blows ... winners take the losers money ... but make note the supply of money never diminishes it only increases and changes ownership. So we have more and more money looking for higher and higher inflation-beating returns! As 2nd_ave would say ... "What's wrong with that picture?"

There's a term to describe 1000 Congressional hearings ... "insolent noise"!

Since the banks are now de facto nationalized, I'm concerned the subprime holdings may be digitally shifted to the gov. It is my understanding that a lot of this is "off the books", so how would anyone know?