Good Morning people!

Carried over from the previous discourse page are musings about the fate of the U.S. housing market. I've been living in this once-great nation a long time, and I gotta tell you. This isn't a housing correction, this isn't a "liquidity" issue, because we've had an "affordability" issue for decades created by their phony liguidity! No folks, for housing, this time it's the big one, the one you can't ever come back from. Game over. Why? it's the afordability issue plus the liquidity issue (if you understand where credit comes from) plus, and this is key, basic supply and demand. It is indeed the "perfect storm" for U.S. housing, and I dare say we have not a one year problem, not a 5 year problem but potentially a 20 year problem in housing.

Bill: yeah, funny how you can think clearly after no alcohol. Mixing alcohols tend to make the problem worse.

Anybody, regarding SKF: when is the next time to go long?

Shark: If the US economic situation is as it seems, it does seem doubtful we'll be seeing much property appreciation for a long, long, time. So it probably makes sense to rent unless you want to live someplace specific (Bahamas perhaps :-)!)

Lazard Clarifies Evergreen Solar Capital Raise, Maintains Buy Rating (ESLR)
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) is a stock that has been under pressure after the company announced huge orders but then immediately turned around with a huge convertible note offering. The offering wasn't a damning one because it was being used for factory expansion to increase its capacity, but it did come after a large move that left many shareholders feeling like they were suckered in.

This morning Lazard Capital Markets' Sanjay Shrestha has maintained his BUY rating and his $15.00 price target on Evergreen Solar. What is perhaps more interesting than anything is that he is clarifying some of the uncertainties from that "capped Call" issue in this. While these can be good, they frequently confuse shareholders.

The $325 million in gross proceeds is after the inclusion of additional funds from that over-allotment option which was exercised. The 4% convertible notes are said to have a $12.11 conversion price, but because the capped call is in place Shrestha notes that this technically is not dilutive to current shares until an effective $19.00 price.

Shrestha's $15.00 price target reflects 20-times earnings of $0.85 EPS for ESTIMATES 2010 Earnings, discounted back 15%. Shrestha concludes, "With near-term capital raise overhang behind the company, strong sales pipeline ($1.7 billion supplied by Evergreen and $850 million supplied by EverQ), excellent silicon position, and improved visibility on path to profitability, we believe ESLR represents a solid medium-term investment opportunity for small-cap investors, with an attractive risk/reward.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

CCJ - to Outperform @ Friedman Billings
HDB - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
NUE - to Buy @ UBS

New Coverage:

QCOM - Buy @ Citigroup

Target Price Lowered:

CSCO - from $29 to $27 @ RBC
SNDK - from $40 to $32 @ Lazard Capital

-------------------------------------------------

Sorry for the late post......composter problems.

Have a great day.

Vinod, thanks for that. If you spend any time on the Yahoo message boards, it is obvious investors were profoundly confused by the convertible offering.

To add to that confusion, Evergreen this week announced that it was redeeming its earlier $90M convertible issue. These bonds were to convert at $7.39 and carried a higher interest rate. Obviously it is good that they are calling them in. But again, this confused many who didn't understand the terms of the deal into believing the shares were being diluted (they weren't) or devalued given the lower conversion price (they aren't).

A dare I say it ,scathing report on UBS from the Telegraph.

http://tinyurl.com/5cxlza

Extract..
UBS has been locked in a downward spiral. Apart from its sub-prime losses, the US tax authorities suspect the bank of systematically helping Americans to evade tax. Their attack is targeted at private banking and wealth management, the heart of UBS.

[Bill Cara note: Wait til the ECB start hitting Bank of America, JP Morgan and the other US banks who are doing the same thing for Europeans. Looks like the tip of the iceberg. For those who care to know it, the USA is the world's #1 tax haven for non-American's, then the UK. It's funny how people in glass houses want to throw stones.]

Re: $BKX

Considering the banks are the topic du jour, Andy Bebut, who ran "Roxylander In Flame" website with K-wave analyses makes a call on the banks. Its nice to see he's now blogging over at the Wall Street Examiner. His blog is also RSS-enabled:

Yellow Brick Road

http://tinyurl.com/584wvz

Anybody interested in long-wave analysis can always read the comments of Bob Bronson as a guest contributor to Financial Sense.com. Bob Bronson has an email list, and you can always subscribe.

Here is Bob Bronson's call:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2652073611/sizes/o/

I agree with sharkattack about housing. Just think, a half million dollar house gets reduced by 50%. 250K is still a lot of money and out of most people's reach.

Scaled into a short position in WB @ 16.27

Re: Outlook For Investor Demand In Gold

Blanchard comments on investment outlook for investment in bullion:

"Inflation, a weak dollar, the rising price of oil, Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and the new influence of emerging markets around the globe are all factors supporting the uptick in the gold price," Doyle says. "However, the key fundamental driver over the next six months will be renewed investment demand by institutions and individuals who are looking for a safe haven."

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=55973&sn=Detail

NOT.V- opening a position at 2.40USD...

a few things on gold in light of this mornings strength:

RSI-7 is moving back up from the 50 level
volume on the downside was weaker than on the upside which wasnt the case during the last 2 small run up's after the plunge from over $1000.

volume on the XGD (Canadian Gold miners) and GDX was very strong on last week's run, and is dwindling on the downside.

the venture exchange (CDNX) is having a tough time, the JR's continue to face pressure and move down against gold. at least the major's appear to be showing signs of life.

early stages but im finally seeing some encouraging signs in gold stocks for the longer term.

J

I'd like to ask a favor of people who have purchased Bill's book. Right now on Amazon, Bill's book has exactly one user review. I'd like to be able to get book sales from people searching Amazon for investing books (not just people familiar with his work), and some more reviews may help that happen.

So if you have read the book and have a chance, I'd appreciate it if you'd go and write a quick book review on Amazon (you can click on the link on the main billcara.com page to get there quickly). I think some more reviews (especially if they are positive) could really improve our chances of selling to people outside the community. Thanks!

- Jeff

I'm probably behind the curve on this one:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/

This guy's analysis is preaching to the choir here, but it's also entertaining.

Closed my SRS and SKF at probably the worst possible time. Ah, learning experiences. Fortunately I still made a little money.

Watching and wondering what to do for a few days probably.

Cara 100 Update (Final):

Target Prices Lowered:

CSCO - from $27 to $25.50 @ UBS
BA - from $75 to $65 @ UBS

MXC - What's up with the big pop?

Entering KO here 51.13, stop at 50.80 as per my comments late in yesterday's discourse.

Movement in steel stocks last 4-6 days is insane
ie CLF and others may jump on PKX or MTL.

Exited SLB 99.90

nemo - "This may be a bit politically touchy: but why did Mozilo and Congress make it so easy to get credit for those who shouldn't have?"

IMO - You're absolutely right, housing had such a momentus vector, providing those opportunities seemed like a winning proposition (politically). When the question arises (as so often occurs electionwise), "Are you better off today", the "YES" factor would've been much greater. It's the old "don't just stand there, do let's do something to get some votes" phenomenon. In retrospect, the FED should've taken on the burden without HB&B participation. The plan sputtered, backfired, then puked. Greenspan blew the last whistle just as everyone began jumping out of the pool. This day of revelation remains clearly in my mind.

Heads will roll as the smoke clears, but not the real heads who concocted the scheme.

Forecast - We're still on the downslope, with giant moguls in the path. Realestate won't begin to show meaningful signs of recovery for at least another few years.

RE: KRY: Crystallex director buying: From nationalpost.com: "Crystallex International Corp. director Harry Near bought 20,000 company shares for $1.00 each on July 7, 2008, bringing his holdings to 205,696 shares." http://tinyurl.com/5be6q4

Should also say Long, KRY, still, dope that I am!

The cynic in me says he's just trying to support the stock price.

Writersblock, we all have had our heads handed to us one time or another. If you learn from the experience you grow.

Now, if you want to grow as a trader, sell now and take the loss and look for a better opportunity to deploy what's left of your asset.

my 2 cents

Just 1 word for you....Ambac.

There have been Lamborghini's purchased with just the past 2 days trading gains in this one (no, not MY lambo...mine I financed with a subprime home equity loan...didn't we used to call those 2nd mortgages?).

Thanks, Telestar. For what it's worth, I only invested as much in KRY as I was willing to lose (not that that's a goal!). I knew it was dicey going in, and now I just enjoy watching the many ups and downs, via press release, for what they are.

Shark: Agree wholeheartedly on real estate. Toast for at least 10 years, and possibly for my lifetime. Especially if viewed in real dollars.

Homes that sold for 200 to 400 oz Gold are expected to be selling for 20 - 40 oz Gold by the time the bottom is in.

This will be the largest destruction of real wealth in the history of the world, as those who don't understand Austrian economics and who don't recognize we have had a complete paradigm shift get slaughtered.

Credit as we once knew it, is over.

I'm leasing a new home, and 25%+ of what I pay would have gone to RE taxes anyway. RE Investors often cannot get beyond nominal dollars to understand the destruction of real purchasing power.

Considering that the DJIA and S&P are flat, the market sure is rocking in individual stocks. Drugs and Bio continue to get a bid, we may have a trend change here.

Writersblock, that's cool, but you may want to consider the validity of a concept that says "I betting this much and I'm willing to lose it all if wrong." Stock trading is not Vegas. Where is your risk management discipline coming from?

Again my 2 cents

I just bought Bill's book. I will write an Amazon review in the next couple of weeks.

Judging by the table of contents and the author, this should be a business classic.

For those ECU watchers, the company just issued a trading halt at 10:28 am this morning. As most of you are aware, they have been drilling for several years at their Velardena property in Mexico and have encountered improved grades and widths at depth. Their drill results issued last week indicated that they had just penetrated the outer zone of the suspected massive sulphide lens' that may be the source or "mother lode" below their property. However, the drill results had to be re-confirmed and today's release may just be the results of the much anticipated outer zone core samples.

GLTA - Fireworks

SUF is rocking today after being crushed by a short selling attack. Long SUF.

Writersblock: I'm also long KRY with a basis just north of $2 as a totally speculative play. Never entered a stop as it was an "all or nothing" play from the entry. If it were a trade vs. pure speculation I would have been stopped out long ago.

I've mentioned this before IIRC, but my professional background is in environmental permitting for large scale projects of all types...infrastructure, mines, residential housing, military installations, etc and knowing how these things tend to drag out (but ultimately get approved, usually with some modifications), I'm comfortable with the risk:reward potential.

It is somewhat encouraging to see an insider buying, but in this case...whats $20k to a guy who's probably making more than that in a month? If he were completely convinced that the permit was imminent I think we'd see buying in the hundreds of thousands of shares.

Just another perspective.

Alaskan Pete, very nice contrast of the concept of a trade versus pure speculation.

Personally, I do not do pure speculation. I suppose the moral is to know yourself.

Again, nice insight.

Re: ECU NEWS OUT

"ECU Silver Confirms Massive Sulphide at Depth"

http://tinyurl.com/57ve72

MEE and KOL head fake appears to be over.

ALOHA !!

ECU SILVER(ECU:TSX) according to IB is on "trading halt"! Must be those BIG assays!

PMI GOLD(PMV:TSXV) trading halt lifted on the news of $3.5mil funding which pays off Nevsun for the KUBI mine. Next stop $65mil funding for a mine ...

Telestar, I use risk management, and position sizing for all positions not considered "funny money," i.e., just throwing a few $$ out there, to see what happens. I was trading KRY successfully, but then got "stuck" when I was out of town on a family emergency, and now have a small "investment." Like AlaskanPete, and I believe 2nd, as well, I don't use stops, because I figure they're catnip for bored market makers. I'm comfortable with what I have, most of which was purchased south of $1.00. But I appreciate your concern. :-) Also agree with AP that if the permit were close, he'd buy a ton. However, I've checked secform4.com recently, and in the past, and have never seen any insider buying. Wonder how they get around reporting it.

Personally think SUF could run to $10+ in short order. Key technology to get Sulphur out of sour crude, and to convert haevy crude to lighter crude by mixing with water and applying high power ultrasound. Supercavitating bubbles crate wavefronts approching the speed of light and are able to effect molecular changes in a continuous process loop. This is exactly the technology we need right now.

Mining experts, is there any way to assess how good these results are (g of gold):

From(m) To(m) (m) (ft) (g/t) (oz/T)
9.73 10.72 0.99 3.3 3.00 0.09
10.72 11.30 0.58 1.9 115.00 3.35
11.30 12.19 0.89 2.9 430.00 13.11
12.19 12.45 0.26 0.9 23.50 0.69
12.45 12.67 0.22 0.7 1.60 0.05
12.67 12.95 0.28 0.9 9.60 0.28

AVERAGE 9.73 12.95 3.22 10.6 143.30 4.18

TIA

Out of UAUA @ $4.90

Out of GE calls this morning luckily (100% profit)

Out of UYG @ 20.40

All trades were profitable for the summer rally. I will lock in the profits when I get them.

100% cash right now, waiting to see what happens with the market. I don't like it right now...

Opening positions in ANO, a PLG miner at attractive price, and HW, one of if not the only competitor to SUF.

Should be PGM miner not PLG. PLG is another of my longs in that space. Need coffee. ;)

ALOHA !!

ON ECU SILVER
Okay ... ECU SILVER trading halt lifted!

This news points to higher grades at depth and that validates their geologic model.

So the Au Eq is 33g/t and the Ag Eq is 2,180 g/t.

ON GEOLOGIX
GEOLOGIX-GIX(TSXV) is being helped by positive comments from Peter Grandich saying that the Phase 3 drill results will way outperform Phase 1&2 to be announced soon!

fidelity shows
CAF MORGAN STANLEY CHINA A SHARE FUND INC
Last [Tick] 38.06[ - ]
Change 3.18
% Change 9.12%
Bid 38.06
Bid Size 1
Ask 38.12
Ask Size 2
Open 36.3000
Volume 288,906
Day High 38.32
Day Low 36.3000
Previous Close 38.9100
Prev. Close Date 07/08/2008
something wrong here?

ALOHA !!

While Bills list today of the top ten gainers in the banking sector look impressive you could also call this same list TOP TEN GLOBAL TOXIC DERIVATIVES HOLDERS!

That to me is at best a bad bet!

TOP TEN GLOBAL TOXIC DERIVATIVE HOLDERS

Wachovia (WB) +11.9%
SunTrust (STI) +10.9%
Bank of America (BAC) +9.3%
KeyCorp (KEY) +8.8%
Merrill Lynch (MER) +7.9%
PNC Financial (PNC) +7.3%
Lehman Brothers (LEH) +6.9%
UBS (UBS) +6.6%
Banco Santander Chile (SAN) +6.3%
Citigroup (C) +6.0%

[Bill Cara note: I made the point that the top 10 winners among banks yesterday are arguably the worst companies on the list of 40. I said the gains were from short covering. I also queried how long that situation would continue. Today most of those same banks are well down.]

Those banks all have broken business models and need to go bust. How much pain will be distributed onto the rest of us to save the HBBs from their own destruction by the two baldies.
These bailouts really disgust me. The FED is trying to expand it's charter since they went out of bounds and need their butt covered.

CAF - 36.30 seems to be a bad data point. It hasn't moved much.

What are the chances that the Treasury money the Fed's "loaning" to the banks for their poop paper is being used to speculate in the commodity markets?

ALOHA !!

Yesterday UPS delivered a Welch-Allyn defibrillator that I bought for the farm and the elderly neighbors here in case of an emergency.

I feel like donating it to MER!

ALOHA !!

RosevilleBill ... I can guarantee you that the FED money is not being used to "plug holes" in any other way than gambling in commodities. Ever loan money to gambler? Do they stop gambling and get a job?

Thoughts on SRS?

Is Peter Grandich still on Geologix's payroll?

This past couple of days I've been buying the Cara 100's with buy alerts. These headlines about oil lately are really too much. Today it was the Iran test fires a missile and then 2 hours later it's gas inventory is up. I smell a summertime rally after HB&B & the FED attempt to pop the commodity bubble, turns around and invests those gains in the stock market. Hopefully a rally develops and then they will jump out at the top for the next leg down. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

Thanks Bill and I'll be heading over to Amazon to post about the book. I've read mine once and am tempted to loan it to a friend of mine. Not!!!

Commodity strength: "Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it."

In this case the only force that will be effective is the end of fiat currencies.

"The boom brought about by the banks' policy of extending credit must necessarily end sooner or later. Unless they are willing to let their policy completely destroy the monetary and credit system, the banks themselves must cut it short before the catastrophe occurs. The longer the period of credit expansion and the longer the banks delay in changing their policy, the worse will be the consequences of the malinvestments and of the inordinate speculation characterizing the boom; and as a result the longer will be the period of depression and the more uncertain the date of recovery and return to normal economic activity.( Ludwig von Mises, The 'Austrian' Theory of the Trade Cycle. The Ludwig von Mises Institute 1983.)

SRS - back up the truck.

SiO2 - Grandich is on EVERY junior's payroll ! Not to mention that he has God on his side ... LOL

Just got another small bar shipment. Kilo Kookaburra 30AUD coin makes a fine paperweight.

re: Grandich,

i just got his newsletter this morning as well,
from what i recall he was quite ill and in hospital, i believe it was life threatening at one point,

so this whole experience may be altering his approach because his newsletter today made it sound like he was going to make a monumental annoucement about the markets but it was pretty mcuh a repeat of what he has said in past letters and what many of us on this board already agree with.

at least he announces his positions and holdings w/ the Jr's he touts but ultimately i take his suggestions w/ a grain of salt like most guys who recommend specific stocks on a regular basis.

-----

in other news,

CNN.com

Iran Test Fires several missles today, one with range sufficient to reach Isreal.

gold may have jumped on this news somewhat.

missle tests are routine for any nation with a modern army or at the least with short to medium range artillery/interception capability. does the US dollar spike when the Navy successfully test fires yet another long range missle?

SI02 Re: gold values
They look as though there's a potentially profitable mine there, but there are so many other variables. What's nice is the really high grades over mineable widths not too far from the surface. But is it free gold, oxide, or sulphide? In your back yard or Yosemite National Park?

OT - your taxes at work
This is the U.S. on drugs
Only cops and crooks have benefited from $2.5 trillion spent fighting trafficking.
http://tinyurl.com/6gs42a

What is the relantionship between the price of oil and refineries? In other words what cause the refinery stocks to go up?

Posted by 2nd_ave: "NOT.V- opening a position at 2.40USD..."

2nd: I remember you posted last week or two weeks ago that you bought NOT.V at 3.3USD -- did you dispose of that position or are you buying NOT.V on the way down? I also bought it at 3.3USD and I am still holding onto it.

DavidV

Kim: Refiners depend on crack spreads. High oil and stuck retail price hurts profitability.

What I don't understand is the inability to raise the retail price and raise their margin. IMHO the price of crude is not going anywhere but up, so something HAS to give. I think it will be retail prices. The refiners barely cover our capacity needs, and if they aren't making any money they will scale back and squeeze the price, IMHO. That could put gasoline well over $5 by year end. I'm looking for $7.50 in 2009.

Bob Hoye says he is seeing upside exhaustion in oil, gas and coal for the first time since 1990.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye070708.html

Aurator

Thank you for the post.

I've been following along for a few months now. So, Hello everyone. Re: NOT, Charles Oliver had comments about it on BNN two nites ago. Thinks there are difficulties, so not so sure why you are all so excited about it. He likes Gold http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip65116. Market Call
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip65120

CAF........trading x-div today . Div to be paid is $4.0275 per sh . Per yesterday's close of 38.91 , reflects new price of 34.88 @ open .

cyderman, thanks a lot. This is from the Windfalls lake project, in Quebec between Val D’or and Chibougamau, just off a paved highway. You can see more details and pictures of the ramp being used for bulk sampling on the company's site below. This is NOT's other major project (and not in the Ring Of Fire). Geologists on site also report significant occurrences of visible gold at Windfall Lake; both in mineralized muck and in situ on the ramp.

http://www.norontresources.com/projects/windfall-lake/index.html

What I am wondering is whether this gold can be used to finance the McFaulds project without further need for a PP (thus upsetting people who do PPs), as the company has indicated "minimal capital expenditures required and possible early lead time to begin obtaining production revenue from these resources." All speculative at this point.

I wonder where cable TV signals go after they're delivered to your TV set?

Bubble Vision is doing a piece on whether or not we're headed into a recession. This must be from last year. :^)

"There's a big, brown cloud in the city,
And the countryside's a sin . . .
The price of life is too high to give up,
It's gotta come down again"

--"Rainbow Stew" by Merle Haggard

Merle knows more about inflation/deflation than 75% of our -- suddenly silent-- Keynesians!

T Boone Pickens - one smart energy investor.

http://tinyurl.com/5jlasf

Correction, Just reviewed Chas Oliver on BNN, didn't come across his comment on Noront. Might have confused with another snip. He did comment on GIX

Will new tanker review lift BA?

SRS uses moon for slingshot to oort cloud. Thru 107.

Thank you, Bill, for today's blue plate special

Covered my WB short @ 14.66 for a 10% gain on the day.

[Bill Cara note: 'Blue Plate Special'--I never heard that before, but having looked it up, I like it. Once we start managing accounts (likely first week of Sept), I may offer a "Daily Blue Plate Special" on the blog home page, and track the results. For sure, once I receive SEC registration, I intend on being more specific with recomendations. Many blogs and newsletters do this, but I have too much respect for the regulatory process to go down that road without registration.]

David- re NOT.V- i think i put it on the watchlist but my bid did not hit before it took off? can't recall exactly, but someone else here did get in, and promptly sold a day or two later at a 30% gain...in any case, it wasn't me...

any fear showing up in the VIX?

another cogent quote from bill's opening post yesterday:

"When the world seems to be falling around you, and you are caught up in it, it only means you are not prepared."

RosevilleBill seems to have a plan, and I more or less agree with it...it's time to buy, not sell...

hi,
i'm a long time reader but I've only posted a couple of times.
I do have a few questions for Bill Cara community:

1. I've been reading and trying to understand Real Return Bonds issued by the Canadian Government. What do other people on this board think about them? With respect to the Trade of the Generation should these bonds get the same treatment as the regular bonds or they are a good investment during high inflation periods?

2. Is anyone watching Cadbury PLc (CBY) and if so would it be a good candidate for the Bill Cara global 100?

3. With respect to ECU I seem to be a bit confused about the price movement right after the press release. Why did it go to a high of 1.89 immediately following the news release and then crash to 1.73? If the news was not good then why did it go up in the first place? If the news was good why did it go down after about an hour?

Thank you

[Bill Cara note: Re Cadbury (CBY), if you check the key stats, the financial metrics are unimpressive. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CBY
I'm not interested, but let's hear from others.]

Oofaa!

FRE going down in flames. Off 23%.

Nemo -

That Dowd story is a hoax. A thirty second google search or visit to NY Times debunks it. Please don't propagate such obvious political smears.

[Bill Cara note: I deleted it. I would like to delete sharkie's comment as well but two deletions in a single hour might bring cries of censorship.]

great call on SRS Aurator, Schleppy

FRE- picking up a little at 10.27...

I am adding to longs today. I am now almost 100% long for the first time in a long time.

IMO, from here we are either going to crash or rally like a rock star.

I'm not saying today is THE bottom or even A bottom, but I think we are higher a month from now.

As always, think first.

Karl

Thanks gdiman! Anybody want to buy my refiners?
Evidently not.

I wouldn't vote for Obama if he were the last Google-loving closet-Muslim terrorist in the world.

Then again, I wouldn't vote for McCain if he were the last baby-killing fascist corporatist PTSD victim either. Guess who I'm voting for?

I'M VOTING FOR ME. THAT'S RIGHT, ME. LET'S FACE IT. I'M THE ONLY QUALIFIED CANDIDATE, AND THE ONLY ONE WHO SUPPORTS CLOSING DOWN THE BORDER AND KICKING OUT THE ILLEGALS. UNTIL A CANDIDATE SIGNS ON TO THAT PLATFORM, I'M VOTING FOR YOURS TRULY. CALL ME "44".

Aurator said back up the truck....I won't take credit for that. Still a good day since basis is $105.

Trying to catch the falling guillotine....Long UYG @ 18.54.

SNDK----Sold some OCT strike 15 puts at the close for 1.38.

Moab, thanks for pointing out the HOAX/smear. Here is a line from one of the sites debunking the alleged Dowd email....
QUOTE But sometimes it's worth noting just how outrageous and offensive -- both to Obama and the public's intelligence -- these attacks can be. END QUOTE

Aurator

Want to buy my TSO? I take it 00.00 is the lowest it can go...correct?

Re: Obama Fundraising

When I read nemo's post all my "BS" filters were flashing red. It is a hoax as pointed out by moab. Go to snopes.com as one source to verify/dispel this type of drivel:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/donations.asp

[Bill Cara note: When I looked at the list of bank stocks yesterday that were the leaders on the board, my "BS" filter also was flashing! Today, $BKS (Banks) down -5.71% and $XBD (Broker-Dealers) down -6.19%. Think of those suckers who actually thought this was going to be a bank-led rally. Not!]

QT- i know you're joking, but clarify your time horizon...and how high do you think can it go...come on, have a little confidence in your trade-> if you buy at, let's say, 21 on its way down to 15, and sell at 60 on its way to 70, it's a successful trade...right?

QT I sold TSO July puts strike 20 awhile back. If "put" to me shares will be at a cost basis around 18.90-95. I'm comfortable with the trade.

Tomorrow's another day and the way this market dances around, patience is important as well as confidence in the trade. Good luck!

Re. Obama and campaign finance.

Obama's is hardly funded by 10 dollar small donations as his camp tries to state and no one gives to McCain

Go to
Opensecrets website it is very open
Or
http://tinyurl.com/5cwnl5

You can breakdown actual donors to his campaign or McCains.

View top contributors through PAC
Ie goldman is the top PAC contributor and u of Cal for obama.
McCain has mer and c as his top contributors.

Aurator
I bought TSO today – I think the selling is overdone – or so it seems - used gains from shorting AMZN. Also looking at CSIQ and SNDK

Just like the 501c3 accusations the other day, obvious hogwash to those who have organized a non-profit. If the person had ever made a political contribution they would know right away this story is bunk.

Sorry, for posting the fake. It was from someone I trusted. I got bit by the assume bug. Mea culpa.

[Bill Cara note: it's happened to me on several occasions. I'm just happy we have some plugged-in people here.]

Speaking of politics, interesting piece by JIM MCTAGUE in current BARRON’s on Sen. Obamas' terrorism man, a former CIA man named Riedel.

Here’s a guy, Riedel, who gets it. He knows who the enemy is and where he’s located. Of course he’s not an oil guy and doesn’t believe we should be refereeing religious faction conflicts.

http://tinyurl.com/69oozh
(subscription may be required)

Nemo,

The article about Obama's internet fund raising you cited as being by Maureen Dowd at The New York Times seems to be fake. Probably a 'dirty trick' from the swiftboat afficiandos.

The writing style has none of Maureen Dowd's perky wit. I searched the archives of The New York Times, including scanning all of Ms. Dowd's articles for the past several weeks. None of them were related to the topic as you presented it. Further, searches of the entire NYT archive failed to turn up any information claimed by the ostensible article you posted.

On June 29, 2008, Maureen Dowd's article was entitled "It's Over, Lady" relating that the Clinton hopes had just been eclipsed by political reality: http://tinyurl.com/6ppvya

Are you perhaps in the McCain camp or otherwise deliberately sabotaging Obama's campaign?

Craig:

What 501c3 accusations?

Johojo

No, I'm not in anybody's camp. Perhaps you missed my "cow" theory on political candidates last week.

Anyone have any computer problems after downloading the July Microsoft updates for Windows XP? The only way my computer will function properly is to restore settings to a point in time before I downloaded. I'm hopeful I'm not the only one with this problem.

Yep, another bank rally. SurpLIES!!!!!

mrmockbird are you talking about internet not working?

You must have Zone Alarm. Turn the internet zone setting from high to medium, or don't update to the KB951748 microsoft update.

QT, Seamus: TSO

I sold 1 Aug 20 put for 1.85 ($184 net), and later 1 Aug 17.5 put for 1.50 ($149 net). I'd be perfectly happy to have the stock put to me at a net cost of $18.16 and $16.01 respectively.

TSO - This one's managed to outperform the DOW by -20% in the last three months. Good opportunity to lower your tax bracket?

BC - This is one of mine, on par with TSO. Whoda thunk lux could compete?

I'm gonna be much more careful on the way to 10K.

Bill, instead of a "winners" list, how about a list which excludes loosers. It might be called the "10K Marathon".

Ruby Tuesday up 22% after hours/earnings after bell - 27c/sh vs 46c/sh

Anyone else thinking of trading earnings over the next few weeks.....especially if they come in better than expected?

Remember those stimuli checks!

OT, Freedom57 re: TSO

FWIW, based on options, the maximum pain for July TSO options (that is the price at which the most options expire worthless) is 20. Usually, 90% of options expire worthless. 20 is that price for TSO this July. Doesn’t mean it can’t close elsewhere though. 10 days to go.

(Thx to Middhach on skype for software site link)

Hey, Shark -

Have you thought of trying meditation, or yoga, or deep breathing?

All are good treatments for OTBMS, soon to be advertised between snippets of nightly "network news"!

(OTBMS = over-torqued brain-in-mouth syndrome)

Freedom57

So you’re the ONE who buys 1 option at a time!

Weeks ago I had an order in to sell 20 puts around 1.35. One contract was filled. Couldn’t believe it as the price dropped afterwards. I had to change prices at the close to obtain another 9 contracts around 1.05 just before the bell. I do dislike 1 contract sales. Arghhhh!

(I am aware trading platform has a minimum number of contracts order window you can use)

Not wrong on the refiners... just "early". hehe
I have learned something from the Financial Cartoon Networks. TSO, VLO long. Aug calls SUN and TSO. At least they keep me from getting bored watching all the gold stocks doing nothing.

Cmon Jock. You should vote for yourself too.
I do it every 4 years.

"Institutional, retail advisors differ on market call" Advisor.ca
http://tinyurl.com/55pawl

"There are a lot of differences between institutional managers and retail advisors, especially when it comes to Canada's economic outlook. Two new surveys, one looking at institutional advisors and the other at retail, show wildly different opinions between these groups."
This sheds some light on where participants view value. Institutional see value in S&P 500, commodities topping.

ALOHA !!

The airlines are really desperate! I got this from Hawaiian Airlines today asking me to send a letter to the US Congress to stop oil speculators! All the airlines are sending out e-mails asking customers to help them get a handle on fuel prices by getting Congress to intervene in futures markets ... They should bypass Congress and send those letters to Goldman Sachs to re-weight the GSCI !!!

So BIG GOVERNMENT is the "answer"! Man, how can we as a Nation ever change our course by constantly asking BIG GOVERNMENT to get BIGGER?

I have a suggestion ... Get all these airline CEOs to buy the jet fuel with their annual bonuses!

READ ON:
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:

Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by pulling together, we can all do something to help now.

For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers.

Since high oil prices are partly a response to normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on increased energy supplies and conservation. However, there is another side to this story because normal market forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation.

Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight. Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper.

The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil markets and solve this growing problem.

We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com.

Robert Fornaro
President and CEO
AirTran Airways

Bill Ayer
Chairman, President and CEO
Alaska Airlines, Inc.

Gerard J. Arpey
Chairman, President and CEO
American Airlines, Inc.

Lawrence W. Kellner
Chairman and CEO
Continental Airlines, Inc.

Richard Anderson
CEO
Delta Air Lines, Inc.

Mark B. Dunkerley
President and CEO
Hawaiian Airlines, Inc.

Dave Barger
CEO
JetBule Airways Corporation

Timothy E. Hoeksema
Chairman, President and CEO
Midwest Airlines

Douglas M. Steenland
President and CEO
Northwest Airlines, Inc.

Gary Kelly
Chairman and CEO
Southwest Airlines Co.

Glenn F. Tilton
Chairman, President and CEO
United Airlines, Inc.

Douglas Parker
Chairman and CEO
US Airways Group, Inc.

IMO financials remain overbought, including Ambac.

b0ss,

Thanks in advance. I do have zone alarm and it is an internet problem. Thanks so much, it's been driving me nuts.

What this shows for the FED will soon be applicable to the rest of the world.

Just how much toxic debt can the FED's closet hold? They are half out of ammo, and the bolt is jammed.

http://tinyurl.com/6lh4xz

ALOHA !!

This is what I was trying to point out the other day about how ABNORMAL our World is now. In all my life I have never seen all the major airlines ask customers to write letters to Congress for them so they can cut fuel costs and stay in business.

Are these "red flags" or aren't they? It seems most people will read these e-mails and say to themselves "Hummmmm???" then press "delete"!

My guess is these airlines are losing a ton of cash shorting oil as part of their usual corporate "fuel hedging" program. If they had been successful hedging oil then they would not need customers to help them!

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... Either that or the US FED thinks that the toxic debt they are buying now will be worth more than a US Peso later! Debt tied to a rotting house in South Florida is still worth more than a US Peso backed by the "good faith and credit of the US government"!

ALOHA !!

I predict that fairly soon the US government will own a few airlines just like the USSR!

Kaimu: Save the letter for the Jewelers for when Gold passes $5000.

HBB - 1

Home builders, auto makers, airlines, regional banks, mortgage lenders, consumers - 0

Just another reflection of the stellar financial management of the current administration.

kaimu - If airlines go bankrupt, CONgress will arrange fuel subsidies and you'll still be able to ship Orchids. :)

Opinion pole: Do the equities turmoil, banking and housing collapse, energy crunch, etc., etc. ad-nausium "feel" like a recession? Naw, didn't think so....

QT- airlines, banks, (and refiners too, for that matter)- how do you think Main Street investors feel about the Strong Buy ratings when UAUA was at 50, WM was at 40, and TSO was at 60? Some of those analysts haven't even bothered to change their targets (UAUA high target of 50?)...while other managed to slip in downgrades near the 52-wk lows...

so you (and I) managed to pick up TSO a little early-> still a good move, IMO...if you're a trend player and buy near the 52-wk high, then i can understand setting stop losses at, say, -8%...when you're buying counter-trend near the low, i just pick up a position and don't worry too much about it...

Thermal Solar - I've been looking around but everything I've found (Mfr's) are private. Any other play ideas out there?

CP- it is a recession...and maybe by the time the media acknowledges it, we're on our way out of it...even if it's an extended stagflation scenario- well, so what...i remember the seventies, with the thermostat at 68 during the winters, interest rates in double-digits, and the spectre of 10% unemployment...it was also the decade that my Dad had the foresight to buy some income property in
Ann Arbor, we (kids) learned the value of working and saving for the future, and the country (re)learned how to enjoy life without throwing money around...no coincidence the seventies produced some of the best writing, film, and music of the past 50 years...a recession is not necessarly a bad thing...

...i would even so far as to say recessions have saved a lot of families-> a decade spent camping and hiking with the kids, walking downtown for ice cream and movies, reading books, eating at home, being creative...probably took the place of clubbing, shopping, and the other kinds of 'empty' and excessively expensive activities many indulged in during the nineties, to the detriment of family life...

Who the hell let that optimist, 2nd_ave on here?

Oh...and the 70s produced polyester and disco.puleeeeeeeese!

kids instinctively know how to live life...it's the six-year-old who prefers two hours of walking the trail looking for salamanders and dragonflies/skipping rocks across the reservoir to two hours at the cineplex or the arcade...i actually read an article a few years back about two church-goers in the east bay getting out of their cars ready to pummel eachother before realizing they were acquaintances on their way to the same sunday service- LOL...unwinding the excesses of the last 15 years will hopefully allow us to unwind our psyches as well...

BRIC vs PIGS
by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, July 09, 2008 |
I was at a lunch recently with about 10 people. One of the participants was an analyst from Portugal -- smart guy, delightful accent.

The table was discussing the BRIC countries -- what a tiresome acronym THAT has become -- and our Portuguese pal mentioned the PIGS countries.

PIGS? What the heck is a PIGS?

It turns out that PIGS stands for Portugal, Italy, Greece & Spain -- P.I.G.S.

Why so crude an acronym? They are all in, or on the verge of tumbling into, a recession. Their significance is that they are the soft white underbelly of Europe. While not as economically important as Germany or England or even France, they are still a substantial chunk of nations, consumption and output for Europe. Our dashing Portuguese analyst expects their slowdown to spread to the rest of Europe.

PIGS: Now you know.

nemo- LOL...do you see what's happened to you, my man...i rest my case...(disco and polyester? don't confuse the 70s with the leisure-suited mutants who sprang from overpriced clubs to become the vanguard of the roaring 80s-> they were merely the fore-runners of the fore-closed and fore-feited/footed dinosaurs you see today)...plastic/polyester/Prince-> is it a coincidence they all start with the same letter..

Economist magazine,
"fractures within the euro area will distract the ECB from staying on top of inflation. A particular worry is what could be called the PIGS—Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, Europe's negative version of the fast-growing BRICs. The fear is that these countries may be in a hole they cannot easily climb out of and that the ECB will be pressed into running a looser monetary policy to save them"

PIGS:

Yeah, the fact that Europe will probably be facing a serious economic fracture makes me wonder if the Euro, and the European Union, can actually stay together.

ALOHA !!

The Euro is essentially the German Mark! I have been saying all along that if the Germans could opt out of the Euro they would in a Berlin minute! I have friends in Germany that tell me they're fed up with the ECB and countries like Italy an Spain.

If the Euro blows up guess who rallies? The Pound, Swiss Franc(all non-Euro currencies) and the ever lovin'US Peso! But I would suspect a lot of Forex types would not see the US Peso as a safe harbor but more a parking lot to get into gold and silver and commodities and out of fiat paper! What would OPEC price their crude in next?

With FIAT you always get a "zero" store of value! Sooner or later the entire World will figure that out!

ALOHA !!

ON RECESSION
I welcome a recession! Like I said at this point in my life I don;t even mind going back to the days of "hunter/gatherers"! HA!! I would love to sit down at the beach and fish and pick fruit all day long! I would gladly throw this damn computer into the lava along with all my past tax returns!

This country NEEDS a major recession just to clear the "palate"! Just to come to our senses and stop the HB&B merry-go-round that has brought us to the brink of total all out collapse! I'm tired of paying for all these losers and their mishaps! Isn't any one else tired of being an abused US TAXPAYER? I feel like one of Tony Soprano's marks!

I agree with 2nd_ave a recession is not a BAD THING! BRING IT ON!

Long home grown vegetables, short car washes.

The Fannie and Freddie:
1.The disaster scenarios
2.The bailout scenarios
http://tinyurl.com/6nwtx8

Review Written. Check's in the mail, right?:)

WOW!!!

I just looked at the close for today!! I'm really hoping none of us went long into that rally yesterday. A year ago I would have but being here has taught me to be more patient.

My gardens and kids are taking up most of my time these days so I'm 100% in cash. Once we get a big spike in the put/call and VIX I plan on laying down some long calls for Jan 09 on some CARA 100 companies.

We just sent our first two boxes of summer squash to market yesterday. We have tons of salad greens but those are harder to transport. We're going to have tons of everything though since i have two 50 foot by 100 foot gardens. There's nothing better than growing your own vegetables. Our typical meal these days is one course meat and three courses vegetables. And now we're not only feeding ourselves but making money by gardening. What a great time of year.

I hope you're all doing great!!!

I'll be reading as much as I can.

Rob.

2nd_ave
Seamus
Freedom57

OK fellows you convinced me refiners have a bright future ahead. Then I'll sleep good tonight :-)

2nd:
You still gun-ho on UAUA? I have a cost basis @4.85. Was in the green for a while today but held off hoping it would go higher. No stops set on this one. Figured we have to be at or close to bargain basement prices for this stock.

Rob- enjoy the homegrown veggies (and the stagflation sorbet)...

QT- i would never characterize my position on UAUA in those terms...i have a position in the airlines (UAUA, NWA, LUV), as well as larger positions in air transport (BA, UPS, FDX, FSAIX) that i'm hoping will pay off, that's it...not necessarily recommending anyone else place that bet...

if it's not already clear by now, i will venture into high-risk plays from time to time, and i also try to manage that risk via position sizing and timing...i can certainly be wrong, and will take hits if i am...what would life be without uncertainty, risk, and the willingness to wrestle with each?

http://tinyurl.com/gun9a

Great article from two years ago about Richard Rainwater and, as we said in the Army, "leaning forward in the foxhole . . ."

Being a bear means being early.

btw, there is nothing wrong with being underwater in a position that you think will pay off...show me someone who's never underwater and i'll show you someone who takes no risks (and mistakenly thinks he's above water to boot)...there are no perfect timers out there (soros, buffet, julian robertson, and even 15-2 miller-> have all taken serious hits and traded their way out of them)-> is there anything less exciting than being right every time and having no challenges...i don't know about you, but i get more satisfaction out of managing positions (either emotionally or via trading) through difficult terrain than almost anything else-> would you rather win against the bad news bears or a superior team...

2nd

Lately I been gravitating toward the more higher risks trades myself. When oil was soaring the past few weeks I kept loading up on DUG. Had a big position in it. Only mistake I made here besides being a little early was of course selling early. Sold it on the 3rd for a very nice profit, but if I woooooooooooooould of waited till the 7 or 9th it would of been the "TOY" [Trade Of the Year].

Just wanted to see where you stood on UAUA. Was hoping a summer rally would sending it taking off [pun intended].

2nd

To me, my trades always seem to start out in the red. :-)

Dave Blane held his breath under water for 17 minutes 4.4 seconds to set the world record. Heck he has nothing on me, I been known to be under water for weeks. :-)

See you tomorrow at the opening bell. I'm out of here.

QT- i know what you mean...it never ceases to amaze how often the rule of discomfort plays out (I would call it Vad's rule of discomfort, but since I'm not sure he would agree with my take on it, I'll let him weigh in)-> loosely applied to your DUG entry/exit, it would translate into something like: when you think it will never stop going down and you're afraid to buy it, enter...when you can't wait to sell it b/c it's (finally) above your basis, hold...when you're kicking yourself for not buying more and think it's heading out of the gate, sell...when it's so far above your exit that you just have to get back in, short...LOL

17 minutes? didn't think that was possible...hope the water temperature was low enough to prevent permanent damage...

2nd

That's it!
Well said -->"when you think it .....have to get back in, short"

Human nature is something uh?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Saw this today written by Eric Bolling [former trader from CNBC's Fast Money]

Be true to your stops, and you can greatly reduce your losers; marry a position and divorce will cost you. Consider the stop-loss as a prenup agreement. I love you, but in case you or I sleep with someone else (the unforeseen event), we part with as little damage as possible.
Eric Bolling

[Goodnight]

QT- in general, i would agree...just remember there are lawyers out there ready to take advantage of the pre-nup agreements, and even more hoping for a divorce...sometimes you have to have a little faith when you get married, and ride out the stormy patches-> personally, if you need a pre-nup, maybe it's the wrong person...

QT- googled blaine, and you're right...of course, he packed his lungs with oxygen and used other training techniques...in most cases, 17 minutes would essentially be equivalent to drowning..

2nd
holding UAUA/AMR/DAL/TBT/VLO/TSO/TATA/ESLR and I am in red
DUG/SMN/IBN/GE in green
added today GLW/T/VZ/BC/WFMI/SNDK
will not do dt trade but will hold them for a while
and may add some more if market goes down
60% of capital used

"(I would call it Vad's rule of discomfort, but since I'm not sure he would agree with my take on it, I'll let him weigh in)"

2nd,

I agree with your approach on this to the letter. In fact, have a look at http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/2008/04/trading-psychology-stage-4-through.html, finishing article of psychology mini-series, and you will see exactly that, maybe with a little twist. Re-read your own description, and you will find striking similarity! :)

Now, I approach the matter of stops and handling underwater positions a bit differently but that's simply a matter of time frames and techniques. The only approach that IMO has no place whatsoever is "I will hold it no matter what happens because I am right and the market is wrong"... but that's just a comment for a "full picture", I don't think anyone here still acts like this - not after following Bill's blog.

I have my own take on stops and how to trade but leave that aside....

2nd_ave...When I first started here I came to know you as a cowboy day trader, talented and accomplished in the art of the quick buck. You bought the daily garbage on the crash, rode it like a rabid bronco and passed the bag off on whichever sucker was willing to take it from you. I admired the heck out of you for it too. Your average trade lasted about a half hour and you seemed quite successful at it. Why the change of heart? And haven't you picked a lousy time to turn into Warren Buffett?

Question....

A real serious question that might sound stupid but if you actually think about it from a macro point of view it may actually make sense..

Ready?... here it is...

Do you believe that if there was no fiat money would you be sitting in your chair right now, reading this question?

I am very curious to know thoughts about that question...

2nd,
Those sound like some great trading rules. Counter your extreme emotions with logic!! I like it!! It puts into words what I've been experiencing lately as I trade the market.

And I also agree that everyone is underwater many times in a longer term holding because who could ever time entries perfect?

Good luck and have fun!!!

Rob.

You mean sitting in this chair $30,000 in debt for my portion of the overall unified deficit?

NO. Without fiat politicians wouldn't have a way to shirk their responsibility to pay for the vote getting schemes they dream up or the wars they try to wage without anyone LIVING being responsible for paying for it.

Without fiat I wouldn't be in debt via taxation through shrinking currency.

To believe otherwise is to buy into the fairy tale that we can borrow money we never intend to pay back and all will be well.

A total fantasy. And outright unAmerican as it gets. We fought a revolution over taxation without representation. How can you ask us to borrow in the names of those UNBORN?

THAT is how fiat works.

The better questions is: How in the hell am I going to come up with the $30,000 to pay the debt for each member of my family that my representative politicians have signed for on my behalf?

As it stands now, they intend to steal it from me (and you and those born and unborn) by shrinking my total wealth through deflating my currency. A shell game, or more accurately, a reverse pyramid scheme.
One where those getting paid simply print money to pay those who *think* it's working.
So far it appears to be the perfect crime.

Kaimu - If shipwrecked on a desert island, what would you eat? ans: The sand_which_is there!

nemo -

I'm quite confident none of us would be conversing on this forum if it weren't for fiat. Should we be thankful?

BMY - I unloaded 150 shares today with 10% profit. This was my best long, but 10k is calling. Desire for cash and ETFs in prep for "capitulation".

Up for sale: BA, BC, BDK, WFMI, SBUX, holding 10 shares YHOO to $100 level, will add to these positions once under $1.00. Learned a lesson on buying lux stuff in a dramatic decline. Will buy Bill's book with proceeds from BC, I want to write a review.

IMO - Bill's blog is where it's at, and you gals/guys are a big part of what makes it that way. Or, I could go waterskiing.

In addition: Hillary Kramer tells me her definition of capitulation is a market decrease of at least 5% in one day.

ALOHA !!

GROUND REPORT
My first casualty due to US government spending and weak US FED monetary policies, under a fiat monetary regime.

There are a few here from the San Francisco area who may have heard of the Blackthorne Inn located in Inverness ... They also have a hotel in Maui ... They have been ordering flowers from us for years. I got this e-mail today from the owner!

"Hello all of you at Kaimu flowers,

We are very sorry to inform you that we have decided to discontinue our Kaimu flower orders. I have been having health problems and with
all the prices going up along with the gas, we have had to start cutting back.

Hopefully, we may order from you in the future."

I also got a phone call from a local nursery here that had a standing order with us for years and they say they are "unsure of the future" and need to discontinue their orders.

UNSURE OF THE FUTURE ... That says it all doesn't it?

While I have diversified outside of my business I am not so vulnerable to the "future", but for many small businesses their business is all they have and if they lose that they lose everything. Then instead of being an asset to Uncle Sam's Balance Sheet they become a liability and are forced to join the ever expanding roles of the welfare state USSA.

So if the US FED is living up to their mandate ... their charter ... to "maintain price stability" then why are there so many small businesses in trouble and why are so many banks failing? If this is the best the US FED can do then do we really need them? Can't we fail just as well on our own without a group of private banks to control our money? Why do they need to control our money anyway? Why do I need a "FRN"(Federal Reserve Note" in my pocket? It is obviously not for our benefit, because I am not benefiting and neither are my small business partners. The vast majority of Americans are not benefiting and neither will the next generations that inherit the mess the US Congress and the US FED leaves behind. These old guys in charge now will eventually die off and become irrelevant but the massive deficits and the debts will live on and on!

Vote for OBAMA and vote for the fantasy that never ever comes true ... the fantasy of CHANGE! There is a photo on Drudge Report of Jesse Jackson holding a sign saying "OBAMA ... CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!" He even looks like he doesn't buy it! OBAMA'S "CHANGE" could set African Americans back 50 years, politically, if he fails. Who would ever vote for a black politician after a major failure ending in a depression? Not even black voters would vote black again! Obama is treading on dangerous ground ... I am sure he is aware of the political aspect, but I am not so sure he is aware of the monetary aspect. See, we don't need a "CHANGE" expert ... we need a "MONEY" expert in charge. Real CHANGE can only happen when MONEY changes!

"The Fed is a desaster. [...] The American central bank is probably the worst in the world. It is so bad - you can write this down - that I suspect that the American central bank will disappear in the next decade or two." - Jim Rogers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhLPNdjyjyg

shark- you ask a fair question, and my immediate response would be the usual human tendency (or maybe it's a trap) to want to learn different skills and take on greater challenges...putting in the same lay-up gets old...you add the jump shot, the hook, slick passes...you take the time to learn defense...you join a club and learn teamwork, setups and ultimately maybe you're able to 'see' the entire picture as a coach...i realize that the small trader has the advantage of quick entries and exits, but beyond that, there's a good reason the best traders don't daytrade-> the big gains are not realized in a day or two...they come from taking positions ahead of extended moves in sectors or markets...not saying i have that ability, just the willingness to allow a few positions the time to play out...

Markets in Europe been down all morning, but US market futures been green all morning and rising upto the open, I dont see any capitulation here at the moment.

Oh and BOE unchanged on rates

Good morning, Caraistas.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report at this time:

AMAT - Banc of America Securities initiates coverage with a BUY.

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Alright Kaimu, tell the whole truth!

A vote for either big party candidate is a vote for the same old same old unless Obama does change or is forced to.

The Old Ways Military Geezer McCain can kill your $USD as fast or faster than spending on education and healthcare. It could be argued that education, healthcare and infrastructure are better "investments" than pissing it away on lead and time, and by time I mean money. The lead and ammo are forever gone as is the time of those there or killed. A total waste.

Anytime I hear about "tax cuts" I wonder where they are going to borrow the money to pay for the programs they will use to get re-elected? Where will the money be borrowed to stay in Iraq if we vote for no change John Bush?

I'm voting for none of the above....I might write in Shark.

Craig:

Healthcare in not necessarily an investment, nor is education. We throw more money at education than any country in the world and get pretty poor results. Throwing more won't make a difference. Not spending on healthcare might sound inhumane, but it's just increasing spending or transferring the spending individuals would have to do. Infrastructure-that would make more sense. One would think the most prudent investments would be in those that would help reduce the Current accounts deficit and the budget deficit. Everything else will only produce political improvements for the parties in power

Right...but it could be argued....depending on how health care is funded....if we take out the unneeded middlemen/stockholders. When I can the exact same drugs for my dog for less than a human dose something is F'ed up...and I know where it's broken. My vet doesn't have a board of vets telling him to not treat or shareholders looking for return.

Same for education, only I would argue it is an investment we've let go. It isn't accurate to say we've thrown more money, because we haven't.
As someone invloved in local politics which includes my local school board (wife was employed there) I can tell you the vast majority of money goes to the districts with wealthier residents and the states have done nothing to increase funds while prices soar. That ends up being a net loss of funds spent on education....just like at your house and mine.

There was FAR more money spent on my education than for the current school goers in real dollars. We used to have music, PE, real world training on current business machinery. Not anymore.

Investment on education in the past are the fumes we've been running on for the last 30 years. Had a look at the new doctors these days? Do they look like they came from American schools? Why is that if we're doing such a bang-up job?

2nd,

What you say makes sense. It is true that the biggest moves are captured when a position is held multi-day, if not longer. The daytrading theory is that one can load the boat on an intraday basis and thereby capture similar dollar gains while lessening overnight risk, but it can be easier said than done. I think the answer may be both at the same time. I will be less adverse to holding overnight when an uptrend appears to be in place and, of course, having a fat position in a trade provides something of a cushion against overnight surprises.

Gold making a move on the Iran news?

That's "having a fat PROFIT in a trade provides a cushion..."

"I can *buy* the exact same drugs for less", and involved is spelled "involved". Duh.
So much for edumacation.