Don't know if this has already been discussed. The new oil up symbol is UOY; oil down is DOY.

http://tinyurl.com/62ghaf

Looks like Congress is anticipating economy is going to get so bad in the US that rich folks will take theirs and move overseas. If that happens what will be next? Will they go after people's gold? as Kaimu has been saying.
---------------------

There's A Law That Takes Away Money If You Leave U.S. Citizenship?

Congress just passed a new law that will stop your capital -- or at least a good portion of it -- at the border, should you decide not to be a U.S. citizen anymore. Is it, perhaps, in preparation for the possibility that Americans might rebel at the debt and taxes incurred by their government by leaving for lower-tax locales?

But Richard Kohan of Price WaterhouseCoopers drew my attention to one section of the act, which states that anyone voluntarily giving up his or her citizenship will be taxed on all of his assets as if he or she had sold them -- paying capital gains on assets that have increased in value, even though they have not been sold.

http://tinyurl.com/5x6zvx

The Russian Google -Yandex

Yandex has 44 percent of the Russian market -- 10 points ahead of Google -- and is now the No. 2 search outfit in Europe, according to researcher comScore. Yandex is expected to list its shares on Nasdaq this fall, fetching as much as $2 billion

http://tinyurl.com/5etk7h

Bill: I received that Carlin missive yesterday also. I believe he wrote it originally when his first wife died in the 90's

Solar Water Heaters Now Mandatory In Hawaii

The law requires the energy-saving systems in homes starting in 2010. It prohibits issuing building permits for single-family homes that do not have solar water heaters.

http://www.enn.com/pollution/article/37518

U.S. biofuel plants go bankrupt on feedstock costs

Soaring corn and soy prices on top of rising construction costs and tight credit markets have pushed about a dozen U.S. biofuel plants to file for bankruptcy protection, experts said.

http://tinyurl.com/6chxn2

Bill:

George Carlin was a true genius. I read your commentary three times and each time it makes more sense. I wish some of the people running for office would highlight the same ideas he did and they would get my vote. We have serious problems in this country and we need serious people to solve these problems. It does not seem that those people are out there with serious but painful solutions. As you have often said, be patient and good things will ultimately come. I am trying to be patient.

The Dangers of Critical Thinking

What is your greatest regret?
Having wasted nine perfectly good years in school. - - George Carlin

“Education either functions as an instrument which is used to facilitate integration of the younger generation into the logic of the present system and bring about conformity or it becomes the practice of freedom, the means by which men and women deal critically and creatively with reality and discover how to participate in the transformation of their world.” -- Paulo Freire

http://tinyurl.com/4wdext

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

XOM - to Outperform @ Bernstein

Downgrade:

DEO - to Neutral @ UBS

Target Price Lowered:

ERTS - from $58 to $55 @ Lazard Capital

--------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

I like to share with you the following great quotes from an internet site that I don't remember.
--------------------

The Road To Success Is Always Under Construction

Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

Life is not no much a matter of position as of disposition.

The best vitamin for making friends, B-1.

If you don't care where you're going any road will get you there.

A pint of example is worth a gallon of advice.

He who throws mud loses ground.

Nobody raises his own reputation by lowering others.

Nothing ruins the truth like stretching it.

A smile is an inexpensive way to improve your looks.

Ideas won't work unless you do.

The future is purchased by the present.

One thing you can't recycle is wasted time.

Lost time is never found again.

A hard thing about business is minding your own.

Triumph is just "umph" added to try.

Caution is not cowardly, Carelessness is not courage.

He who forgives ends the quarrel.

Children need more models than critics.

Frogs have it easy, They can eat what bugs them.

The pursuit of happiness is the chase of a lifetime.

If the going gets easy you may be going downhill.

Dieters - People that are thick and tired of it.

Jumping to conclusions can be bad exercise.

The best labor saving device is doing it tomorrow.

A turtle makes progress when it sticks its neck out.

Failure is the path of least persistence.

Hard work is the yeast that raises the dough.

Patience is counting down without blasting off.

Have a backbone not a wishbone.

Some folks won't look up until they are flat on their backs.

If you want your dreams to come true, don't oversleep.

Friend - One who knows all about you and likes you just the same.

Money talks and often just says, "Good-bye".

Birds have bills too and they keep on singing.

Forbidden fruit is responsible for many a bad jam.

God's retirement plan is out of this world.

A good example is the best sermon.

The Ten Commandments are not multiple choice.

Well done! is better than, Well said!

Minds are like parachutes - they function only when open.

Live as you wish your kids would.

Swallowing your pride seldom leads to indigestion.

If you can laugh at it then you can live with it.

People don't fail, they give up.

When looking for faults use a mirror, not a telescope.

Smile, it takes only 13 muscles; A frown takes 64.

Kindness, a language deaf people can hear and blind can see.

Heaviest thing to carry - a grudge.

A smooth sea never made a skillful sailor.

A small leak can sink a great ship.

You can't direct the wind, but you can adjust your sails.

We lie loudest when we lie to ourselves.

Tact is the ability to see others as they wish to be seen.

A bad conscience has a very good memory.

Hug your kids at home - Belt them in the car.

One thing you can give and still keep - is your word.

A friend walks in when everyone else walks out.

If you must cry over spilled milk then please try to condense it.

Behavior is the mirror in which everyone shows their image.

Make friends before you need them.

It's not the load that breaks you down, it's the way you carry it.

The smallest good deed is better than the grandest intention.

Success is … more attitude than aptitude.

Our favorite attitude should be gratitude.

The greatest of all faults is to imagine you have none.

Too many of us speak twice before we think.

Some people develop eye strain looking for trouble.

Everyone has 20/20 hindsight.

The happiness of your life depends on the quality of your thoughts.

It is much easier to be critical than to be correct.

Feed your faith and doubt will starve to death.

It is no crime not to be perfect.

If others have sinned you need not mention it.

No man knows less than the man who knows it all.

Patience carries a lot of wait.

One who lacks courage to start has already finished.

A quitter never wins, A winner never quits.

Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often.

Break a bad habit - Drop it.

Don't learn safety rules simply by accident.

Failing to prepare We prepare to fail.

Past failures are guideposts for future success.

There is no right way to do a wrong thing.

There can be no rainbow without a cloud and a storm.

If your dreams turn to dust…vacuum.

Money is a good servant but is a cruel master.

Seek joy in what you give not in what you get.

Procrastination is the thief of time.

Success comes in cans Failure comes in can'ts.

Anger is one letter short of danger Greatest remedy for anger is delay.

2/3 of promotion is motion.

Having a sharp tongue can cut your own throat.

Of all the things you wear, your expression is the most important.

"one section of the act, ... states that anyone voluntarily giving up his or her citizenship will be taxed on all of his assets as if he or she had sold them -- paying capital gains on assets that have increased in value, even though they have not been sold."

If the government ever goes after the wall street con artists who collected obscene fees for creating worthless AAA rated asset securitized paper this is a good thing.

Gotta' question:

I haven't followed it closely, but it seems the European Union is having some unity issues. I would think the coming stresses might have further affect on that unity.

What kind of stress will that cause for the Euro, and what would be the relative affect on the $/Peso?

Looking for a several bounce on micro degree wave 2 up in the 3 of 3 down. Good opportunity to remove the longs and reload the double inverse.

Those who still have any capital gains will be selling soon, so as to capture the gains under the Bush tax rates.

Oil and Gold should do well as Iran gets an overnight express tube of Uranium in the form of nuclear tipped bunker busters. No fuel surchage and Saturday delivery free.

"The Paradox of Our Time" was NOT authored by George Carlin.

See: http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/paradox.asp

for the full story.

It was in fact written by Dr. Bob Moorehead, former pastor of Seattle's Overlake Christan Church - who resigned due to sexual assault allegations (church elders concluded that Moorehead was guilty of molesting a number of male parishoners).

All,

I turn 61 tomorrow and the George Carlin item came as a square-between-the-eyes reminder to live life and love to the fullest degree because the last day will surely come. It happened to George, it will happen to me and you.

I am fortunate in that I work from home and, after reading that, I immediately got up from my desk, hugged my wife, and made silly faces at my children. Their smiles and giggles felt better than a quick trade for a double. And we all know that that's a real good feeling. Thanks, Bill, for the re-focus.

I don't post here much because I have nowhere near the trading skills and knowledge that most of you so obviously possess. But know that I'm here reading your posts and appreciating your help.

Long life and loads of laughter to you all!

Should be "a several week bounce".

[Bill Cara note: Agreed, but then I opined earlier that there will be another selling wave taking the DJIA down to about 10,000. "Tony" sent me this link, which might be a source of future troubles. I have recently referred to the nonsense in the US that the Fed must control the world's banks as chief regulator, and I said that I hardly believed the other major economic powers would agree to that. Apparently the IMF agrees with me and has started investigatory proceedings. This has the seeds to blow up into a major challenge to US authority in the world.

http://tinyurl.com/4ong8h ]

ADP report shows bigger than expected private sector job losses:

http://tinyurl.com/5a68x5

Norton,

Happy birthday! And don't presume that what is obvious is also true:)

Re. the topic of Fridays and how the markets usually go down. This continues to be true. The performance of DIA, SPY, XLF, EWZ (Brazil), XFI (China), and the SP500 itself was analyzed for the entire first half of 2008, for Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays. Some results are quite interesting.

The Dow 30 has gone down on 19 out of 25 Fridays for the first half of this year. Perhaps investors worry about bad news coming on weekends. The average daily performance on Friday was -0.69%. If you shorted the Dow index at the end of the day on Thursdays and sold it at the end of the following day on Fridays, your cumulative performance would have been -15.95%. In comparison, the total return for the DOW for those 6 months was -12.21%.

Also interesting is that since the start of the year Brazil gained +10.3%, while its performance on Fridays was a cumulative -7.19%.

Jan 2 2008 to June 30 2008:

DOW 30 Total return: -12.21%; Fridays cumulative return: -15.95%
EWZ Total return: +10.3%; Fridays cumulative return: -7.19%

As for the best days to go long: Mondays, where the Dow has gained a cumulative +3.88%.

Tables and graphs source for DIA and other ETFs at http://tinyurl.com/3oahzq .

Shark,

Your observation is spot on. The obverse is also worth considering... that what is true is not always obvious. And isn't that what Bill has been saying all along about economies and trading?

CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) is on the rise during Wednesday's pre-market trading on news that its WenChang oil fields have successfully run into trial production stage.

At 9:05 am ET the stock is trading at $179.65 up $8.30 from Tuesday's close.

With the advance, the stock will open above its 50-day moving average and at its highest level in a month.

Currently, through 7 wells the fields can produce approximately 14,000 barrels of oil per day. - RTT News

Other stocks of possible interest:

Caris & Co. initiates coverage of MU with a Buy...target price of $8.50.

Norton850: Happy birthday and welcome!

As soon as that piece read, "pray too little," you know that it wasn't from George Carlin.

might be picking up some DZZ if gold doesn't crack $955 tomorrow.

Bill: I find it interesting that they plan to release the results of the IMF review in 2010.

2nd ave: that will be one of the storms I mentioned for sure

Stormy season indeed.

Has anyone noticed the sunspots are still missing?
http://tinyurl.com/5hludu

Bees to sunspots to our money, its a magic show of vast porportions :)

The next trick will be MR. bush cutting a country in half!

Seesh! I am going back to the porch and drink some morning tea

More on Yahoo / Msoft

http://tinyurl.com/6fne7y

people here know my feelings... time to ditch yahoo, but this is another opportunity to get out possibly if you are in

My guess is the last bump for a while.

Norton 850 - enjoy your rare posts. Does your handle come from the motorcycle?

Cara 100 Update:

JNJ - Target Price Lowered from $75 to $73 @ UBS

This was in the Agence-France Presse , Looks like the French are getting serious about insider trading.

Former Airbus CEO Taken Into Custody In Insider Probe

Gustav Humbert First German To Be Detained By French Investigators
In April, French market regulator AMF alleged Humbert sold off 160,000 of his shares in EADS in November 2005, a transaction worth him $2.7 million. Shortly thereafter, EADS shares started their tumble; in June 2006, Airbus added to the bad news with the announcement of the A380 delay. Investigators want to know what Humbert knew, and when.

In all, 17 past and current members of EADS -- including current Airbus CEO Thomas Enders, who served as EADS co-CEO along with Forgeard -- are suspected of insider trading, and will likely face charges.

Skylane

In the spirit of G. Carlin's message I have an article and a book the board might be interested in reading. The Article is from Ode magazine and talks about a new "Spritual Capitalism" that is forming at the grassroots level of business.

http://tinyurl.com/636cep

The book is called "Blessed Unrest" written by Paul Hawken. The book looks at our problems, but then talks about how neighborhoods, communities and organizations at the ground level are working to restore grace, justice and beauty to the world in one of the largest social movements in history.

Though I am short term pessimistic about world events over the next 4+ years (peak oil, debt, depression, war), I believe that with the election of a black man a leader in the worlds most powerful nation, the end of the Mayan Calendar in 2012 and the spiritual movements underway at the individual level, over the longer term there will be a spiritual awakening and man will become more in tune with man and the earth so we all can live sustainably with peace and love.

Yesterday, prieur posted the link to the Marc Faber/Frank Holmes webcast.
It's a multi-segment, multi-topic interview that's over an hour.
One bit from Faber jumped out at me:

he said to buy farmland, making certain it's far away from the land and homes of the HB&B people that will be unemployed!
Now where have I heard this bit of advice before......
;^)

Anyone else catch it?

Stu

i heard faber's caution w/r/t living away from major cities. but i think he prefaced it by stating the nature of future terrorism / warfare: dirty bombs in cities, etc. when he added that it would likely far away from HB&B, as more of a coincidental, (slightly humorous?) afterthought. just my impression.

anyway...

Casey - YHOO - I believe the real deal is forthcoming, and will benefit those who entered near the bottom. My 10 YHOO shares are down just 20% this morning, with my second "best" performer being BC down $500.

Looking for exit points in preparation for 10,000.

Fatty,
Quite right! The reference to praying got right by me. A sure tip off that it wasn't George... who right now would be thanking you and shaking his head at me for not paying attention. As for me, I say, "To each his, her, or its own -- as long as no one gets hurt or has their human rights crapped on".

Zenn, ZNN.V, is up yet another 17% since I mentioned last week. Already passed the average daily volume today.

Long ZNN.

vinod
I'm out of IBN at 28.72. Will reload at 27 again.

Norton850, I like your philosophy!

Norton 850, nice post about your family. Do it often to watch their glowing faces.

Faber/Holmes well worth your time listening and thinking about the trends/ideas discussed.

RH,

Yes, indeed. A leisurely early Sunday morning ride through the deserted countryside aboard the snortin' Norton clears my mind and brings me into the present. My subconscious addresses the week's challenges while my conscious mind concentrates on improving my riding technique and simply enjoying the wind, the forests and the fields. Then I drive my nice safe Volvo back into town and play with my kids the rest of the day.

I'd play golf, but my handicap is how poorly I play golf.

By the way, I am not a "biker". Apart from acknowledging a fantastic marketing job by Harley-Davidson, I don't understand that lifestyle. I'm just an antique guy who likes to ride his antique motorcycle. You a rider?

QT - Further to yesterday's remarks re "substitute payments in lieu of dividends":

From IRS publication 505:

"Qualified dividends are the ordinary dividends that are subject to the same 5% or 15% maximum tax rate that applies to net capital gain. They should be shown in box 1b of the Form 1099-DIV you receive.

"Qualified dividends are subject to the 15% rate if the regular tax rate that would apply is 25% or higher. If the regular tax rate that would apply is lower than 25%, qualified dividends are subject to the 5% rate.

"To qualify for the 5% or 15% maximum rate, all of the following requirements must be met.

The dividends must have been paid by a U.S. corporation or a qualified foreign corporation. (See Qualified foreign corporation later.

>>>>> The dividends are not of the type listed later under Dividends that are not qualified dividends. >>>>>"The following dividends are not qualified dividends. They are not qualified dividends even if they are shown in box 1b of Form 1099-DIV.... Payments in lieu of dividends..."<<<<<<[emphasis added]

********

The following is my understanding of how substitute payments are to be reported on US tax forms; note that I am not a CPA or tax professional, and that you should consult your own tax adviser for advise specific to your circumstances:

Substitute payments in lieu of dividends are considered Miscellaneous Income, and are reported as such on a 1099-MISC or on your broker's consolidated 1099 statement, and should be reported as "Other Income" in line 21 of Form 1040.

~OG

Bill:

In your comments section today you said "I believe...that the $USD is heading lower..." Then "I believe that the $USD has bottomed for now" Could you clarify?

Telestar3d,
Will do.

This is a tough market.

US markets closing @ 1:00 on Thursday.

"Substitute payments in lieu of dividends are considered Miscellaneous Income"

That makes sense, so that the same dividend can't be claimed twice by two different people.

Markets look a little choppy with an upwards bias...

Bit off a little UYG bit it's not going to be held long.

Khan up 25%. Anyone following this one or invested in it?

Anyone following Tengasco (TGC)? It has been on a tear since May? But it is hard to catch a rising knife!

Sorry for the garbling of the characters I was attempting to use to highlight the following key extract from IRS Pub 505:

"The following...are not qualified dividends...even if they are shown [as such] in box 1b of Form 1099-DIV..." (there follows a list of excluded items, including) "payments in lieu of dividends".

I've been watching Tengasco. This year just about every penny oil and gas explorer has had amzing, prolific runs, and this is also true for TGC. Add to the list GSX, KOG, PDO, and MXC among many, many others.

OldGoat

Thanks for the info on dividents.

Chickenpookie: you could be right that a real deal is now in the works

http://tinyurl.com/6c63cr

However, unless Msoft only buys the search part of Yahoo, it's a terrible deal for MSoft.

I view this as a major test of MSoft's future.

If they walk away from this deal or manage to only get the plum deal of the the search engine part of the business, then I would say MSoft is a still a good company.

If they buy the whole package... Then MSoft is not a long term company anymore. They are being overly reactionary and not making smart move, and buying into lose (as if I should speak, right now) rather than gain.

Yahoo is dust no matter how the deal unfolds. If Yahoo is to survive, it will be in a totally re-vamp - reinventing company from the shell it is now. However, the odds are heavily against them, their internal structure, layout and assets are exactly why it won't be able to re-invent itself. Having worked in the tech business and seeing this time and time again. It only succeeds very very rarely. Yahoo is in my dead book.

Its more a question how to extract short term gain from the current events.

I'm one who feels that the whole idea of MSFT buying YHOO is about the most damned foolish thing I've heard of in my whole life. I could explain why but I'm sure you all have your own ideas. In short, it's not their business, they know nothing about search and have botched all previous search efforts, no one likes MSFT and will shun YHOO if owned by MSFT, and as a long term growth strategy, it's a retarded plan. What MSFT neede to do while Bill(ionaire) Gates was still with them was to reposition themselves as being not just a software company, but as an agent of positive social change and of global values of cooperation and help. They needed to "Starbucks" themselves and to make their brand mean something having nothing to do with software, which has no inherent meaning anyway. Had they worked to change the world, they could have changed themselves.

Yahoo has just changed the my.yahoo page to a dreadful new model (doing the same that Yahoo Rogers did to its guinea pig customers and in which they completely ignored complaints). The new page is pretty much unusable to me, too slow and full of scripts. So long Yahoo. I see no reason to use this company again. Would make a good short candidate.

Casey -

RE: Yahoo

I got lucky and added to YHOO yesterday during the chaos at 20.20 bringing down my basis to about 21. Sold out today at $21.60 or so. I still think this might bring a nice surprise when a deal is finally consumated, but I decided to escape with a gain while I had it (should have bailed the other day with that big rumor spike.

Nonetheless, I felt like I no longer had any edge on the trade and it seems that the stock is being pushed around by financial media jawboning (and the true facts are uncertain to me). Also, I see a lot more opportunity in the market today than I did when I originally put on the trade a couple weeks back.

So - I plan to keep an eye on it for another trade but I'm out for now.

Thanks for providing your thoughts and insights and also for your words on Taoism lately - from the brief studying I have done I can really see the links to being a good trader - setting the ego aside and realizing our own personal imperfections are key aspects of becoming a good trader (and of course a good human being).

I tuned in late...what happen to so called summer rally?

Question about Ambac(ABK) It appears that that abk is being priced to go bankrupt.
What would the impact be on those that insure with them be.

Does anyone agree that abk will go belly up?

Disclosure: I own a small amount of shares at a very low price but was thinking of adding some here.

TIA,,,Dab

Got as low as 72.037 this morning on the USD Index. Look out if we break into the .71s.

BillySundance: thanks :)

we are all learning together :)

I appreciate all I have been learning from everyone on this board also.

YHOO - I heard from a friend of an insider, he had positive news on a deal which would result in a net positive result. Since I bought just 10 shares YHOO @$27.xx, I'm gonna wait and see. I don't like stinky deals, and this one's starting to have an odor about it.

I definitely WOULD NOT advise entering YHOO at this time unless you have a death wish...

Just picked up more BA @$64.55... yee-haaa??

In prep for DOW 10k, I'm looking to liquify equities at a profit (most of course are negative at this point), any ideas on setting up generic sell limits at this juncture?

My thoughts are to catagorize and assign sell limits something like this:

Low quality - purchase price +10%
med quality - purchase price +20%
high quality - 52 week high -20%

I don't know if there are any established rules of thumb covering this aspect of trading, but the second half of the deal must come at some point...

VGZ- up over 11% this am no news I know they are waiting for some permits but can't find any real information? Long the stock

ronK

Mmmmh? Rally? Maybe the generals that had been leading of late aren't quite bullet ridden enough.

arbuckle,

are you going to short gold? im thinking about it...

Chickenpookie - Bill's RSI methodology addresses the 2nd half of the deal. Or follow your own indicators--if they tell you when to buy, they should tell you when to get out also. As for %-based rules, if you need them you'd do better to focus on what % loss you can live with and set a hard stop there. I recall a grizzled old fund manager being queried as to why he had a hard and fast rule about selling anything that went down 6%. Asked whether that would hurt, he answered, not nearly as much as selling when it's down 50%.

Your %-gain method goes against the grain of cutting your losses and letting your winners run. Per Jesse L.: "They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. "

COAL BUBBLE BURST?

KOL and coal shares are down sharply this morning, by > 7-8%. Anyone knew what's happening?

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Thanks for the link to the Der Spiegel news article about the IMF planned investigation of the US FED.

This type of info is such a huge red flag, as it points to a lack of CONFIDENCE in the USA. As I posted last night there is a monetary crisis coming to America that has never before been visited and when the IMF questions the US FED it only hastens that crisis. This is the international monetary equivalent of the SEC announcing they plan to investigate Enron!

Nobody talks about a US Peso crisis. You can hear about high gas prices and the DOW 25/8, but if you focus on that then you miss the bigger picture.

A reserve fiat currency represents all of the FIAT WORLD and the Euro is in that boat. The US Peso crisis will spread to the other FIATs, so do not be surprised to see the country's who have been buying gold and silver to step up to the plate with a plan to take their currencies off the FIAT STANDARD. Let me spell out the countries who have been buying gold and silver as the Western countries sell it: Russia, China, India, OPEC ... There are a few others but you get the picture! Now is the time to demand that the US Congress have an independent audit of the US gold reserves. Is there a reason the US gold reserves have not been independently audited since 1952?

When a monetary crisis hits there is also a simultaneous crash for that country's "sovereign credit rating"(SCR). What that means is that all businesses and States and counties and cities can never have a credit rating higher than that of their country's SCR. What will happen is that to avoid such a predicament US Corporations will move their headquarters to foreign countries with better SCRs. I would say that Haliburton has sounded the alarm first. If they don't leave the USA then they will essentially become a company with no real means to expand or grow and they will suffer the same fate as other Third World based corporations. Usually that means they become absorbed into a government owned entity like oil companies in China. So a lowering of the SCR promotes Corporate Communism ... its the USSA!

These are dangerous times for US citizens, as dangerous as I have seen ... Expect some BIG changes to how we Americans live our lives!

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!

And what if you can't buy farmland...

OG - Thanks for the advice. A -6% rule is smart, I've heard -4% before. But with the volatility we're witnessing, keeping in mind the steep rates of rise and decay, I thought that rule would no longer apply. Perhaps I should re-evaluate.

After rising relentlessly for the last month, coal prices have apparently got hit today. Seems like just a normal correction as Eastern coal prices have been rising for months w/o barely any drops. It had to happen eventually but I would consider it just a minor bull market correction.

In related news I saw today that ESKOM received approval to pass on more power increases to SA power customers:

Avoiding blackouts
Jul 2nd 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

http://tinyurl.com/4ln8km

This should increase cash costs for SA miners across the board (but this was likely the expected outcome as ESKOM wouldn't last long making power below their costs)

If a nation's money is it's worth and soul... its sovereignty if you will... then the movement to place the US financial regulatory system under international review marks a direct move to usurp that sovereignty. Not that the Fed doesnt need a good a$$-kicking by US citizens... sheesh.

Will we EVER wake up?

The bulls in Pamplona have it better than we do.

lol, sharkie.

The Bull Runners n Pamplona also have it better than their Wall St. counterparts. They don't get gored as often or as deeply. :^)

Regards

C-pook -- Not intended as advice or recommendation; please do not misconstrue as such. Just a few thoughts for you to consider.

Re: shorting gold:

currently, my capital is tied up in UYG / DUG so i probably won't partake.

as ST07 mentioned above, if the USD Index drops into the 71s, it could easily keep going down: not a good time to be short gold.

most commentators i hear think that the ECB will hike tomorrow, so i'd expect some dollar weakness to be priced in already... BUT, it might be worth waiting for tomorrow to see if it is. in which case, if gold can't crack 955ish, (and USD index doesn't fall into the sub 71 abyss) then it seems like maybe a good time for a gold short.

of course, my equity curve is negative this year so my opinion is probably not one people should follow. i'm curious to see what maromatics thinks. he's got a good track record on gold movements.

FattyArbuckle

Have you decided on an exit point for your DUG holdings?

Re: shorting gold:

Along with the ECB rate hike decision and impact on $USD and PM, we can throw the NFP into the mix. Excellent analysis here:

http://tinyurl.com/3rrsdx

Like Fatty, I'm waiting for tomorrow to decide if the time is right to short gold.

I'm taking the rest of today and tomorrow "off".

Bill and friends, have a fabulous 4th of July. I'm going to go blow something up! (not my acct equity).

QT, yes: I'll cut my DUG losses if XOM closes above 90.5

as for upside potential, if money for this supposed upcoming mini-rally gets rotated from energy to other sectors, i'll be more likely to hang on to DUG a bit longer. if it's fresh money coming in "from the sidelines" in a broad-based short-term rally then i might consider getting out quicker. generally, XOM is my bellwether.

Merci, FC! I forgot about NFP.

Yep, and I expect if the Euro rises, gold in USD would also rise, as usual.

September Copper breaking out over $4. Hmm.

From the latest Bob Hoye newsletter:
The SPTMN was likely to rebound out
March-April and the high was 890 in April and 894 in May. Distribution has started and
the index, which is at 850 is vulnerable, and momentum is neutral.
We play this sector for the seasonal rally into spring and have advised aggressive selling.

Bought FCX August 90 Puts this morning which is working out quite nicely.

Also sold to cover a boatload of XLF September 24 puts that I had been holding (with white knuckles) since April.

Several days ago someone asked about possible methods to recover from a bad position (in DUG as I recall). The answers given, as I recall, were generally "take your loss and move on", which is often the best course to take.

However, there are other alternatives which could be of use if one believes that the risks of further downside moves are limited and that potential exists for a near-term up-move. For example, given a long but underwater position of 100 shares in company X, you could buy one (1) at-the-money or slightly in-the-money call and write (sell) two (2) calls at the next higher strike and same expiry date, for minimal net cost. If the stock declines further, you are no worse off than had you simply held your original position (which is what you will in fact have done). If it rises to or beyond the strike price of the sold calls, you will realize a gain on both your original 100 shares (which will be called away from you) and on the 100 additional shares you will obtain when you exercise the ATM call you bought (and which shares will also promptly be called away from you). If the stock rises to a level between the strike prices, you can exercise your purchased call, sell the shares and pocket the gain, and then repeat the process again using a further out month.

Again, not a recommendation. Note that this approach affords zero downside protection in the even the stock declines further. Also, should the stock price rise, the sold calls will appreciate (for a while) quicker than your (now deeper in the money) bought call, so that in the event the position has to be liquidated prior to expiry, you may incur a loss on the options trade, (partially offset by the gain on your equity position). However, as the expiry date approaches, the time value of both the bought and sold calls will erode to zero.

A concrete example: stock Y purchased at 15, now 11. Buy one 10 call/sell 2 12.5's. Stock moves to or above 12.50. Original shares called away at 12.50. You exercise your 10 call to get another 100 shares at 10, which are then promptly called away at 12.50, for an additional gain of $2.50 (less any premium and commissions paid--let's assume .40 net costs. Net result--you have exited your underwater position at 12.50+2.50-.40=14.60. And, the accomplish this result, the stock only had to rise to 12.50.

Of course, if in the interim somebody strikes oil in the company's parking lot and the stock zooms to 75, you'll be kicking yourself; or, if the stock does a "Bear Stearns" or an "Enron", you'll kick yourself even harder.

One final note: If the stock should decline, it is essential (in my view) that--should you decide to sell and take your loss after having put on an options position such as that described above--you also close out your options positions at the same time, lest you be left with the potentially infinite risk of being short a naked call.

One more time: This is not advice, nor is it a recommendation. It is simply a description of one approach that might be considered under appropriate circumstances. DYODD.

FattyArbuckle
Thanks for your insight. I like the XOM as your bellwether stock. I'll keep that in mind.

Goldman analyst cuts UAL from Buy to Hold:

http://tinyurl.com/6aqr7m

this excerpt is straight from the article:

"Christopher Cuomo slashed his price target on UAL -- the parent company of United Airlines -- to $4.40 from $16, implying he expects shares to decline 4 percent from Monday's close of $4.60. The analyst also removed UAL from the investment bank's "America's Buy List."

Cuomo said UAL shares have declined 89 percent since he raised the stock to "Buy" in November. In addition, the surge in jet fuel costs -- which has gone hand-in-hand with elevated crude prices -- has eroded the company's cash flow, he said, while a weaker economy continues to weigh on UAL."

is this guy for real? should GS change his evaluation to Do Not Rehire? LOL

"There's A Law That Takes Away Money If You Leave U.S. Citizenship"

One of the defining characteristics of a free country is that its citizens are free to leave. The late, great Soviet Union had this same policy of asset stripping emigres, typically Jews headed for Israel.

This was sponsored by Charlie Rangel, Democrat.

Anyone considered buying GM debt?

Very high yields and if it goes bankrupt you'll at least get something, unlike owning the common?

But in all likelihood they will go bankrupt. Unless tariffs for imports will be raised a lot.

steelstocks, including 2 of my favorites X and SID, are taking a hammering today... should have seen it coming because the tv talking heads were jaw boning it earlier this week...

I though they couldn't raise tariffs as it was anti-competitive and frowned upon by the WTO.

as for that tax law: the text of the bill is here, for anyone bored enough to read it:
http://tinyurl.com/5vn7ww

"Title III - Revenue Provisions Section 301 - Sets forth additional rules for the tax treatment of high-income individuals who relinquish U.S. citizenship or residency to avoid U.S. taxation"

I'm pretty sure this is just closing a pre-existing tax loophole, namely, you can't book it to the Caymans with all your gains tax-free.

And section 877A, a.) 3.) a.) seems like it gives you a 600K exclusion off the bat, although i could be reading it wrong.

re: GM Debt

I thought the stats were $300 billion in debt for GM, but yahoo only shows $44 billion. In fact, a bunch of stats on the yahoo key stats page for GM look suspect, i.e. +$4.67 billion operating cash flow?!

But even assuming just 44 billion in debt, and market cap of 6 billion, how much do you think you'd recover on a GM liquidation in the current environment? 10 cents on the dollar?

2nd -
If you are interested in airlines take a look at dec-jan puts - the premiums are huge. I've wrote some deep OTM puts on few of them. If assigned I'll get the stock at roughly 40% of the current price and will hold for a while.
BTW made some change on long side CAF but decided to get for holidays.

SPX 1270 holding, barely... IWM is desperately clinging to the cliff's edge...

OG - Absolutely, I feel no obligation to act on advice/ideas given here, in fact I applaude and encourage everyone contributing to Bills blog to please continue. My interpretation is that the sharing of these/our ideas is infinitely valuable to the group as a whole!!! United, we stand. Each of us has the ultimate responsibility for his or her decisions.

GM Debt: 10-15c in the dollar was what I was thinking also. My perspective is 10-15c is better than zero and since the cost right now is roughly 50c on the dollar I view it as a far better alternative than the common (unless you can find shares to short).

Obviously alot of risk. I haven't crunched numbers on a risk/reward yet.

What are the opinions?

GM going bankrupt? (Yes or No)

I have just sold my GLD, which I bought at $87, as I figured that the move up based on expectations of the ECB rate hike has already happened, and if ECB does increase rates tomorrow, GLD will not spike too much, but if ECB does not cut rates, GLD will drop sharply. Besides, my theory is that oil will reverse its course after the long weekend, bringing GLD down with it. Tomorrow I expect to see the last down day for the market during the recent sell-off, and THAT will be the day to sell puts, since VIX will be at its highest and general put prices will be highest as well. I may also buy some refiners/financials tomorrow.

DavidV

I'm still ticked about not being able to fade that up spike in GM yesterday. Got the "no shares available to short" message.
Can any of you broker types explain why a broker wouldn't be able to "locate" a few hundred shares of a widely traded stock like GM.

In the absence of some reasonable answer, I'm assuming the answer is that I'm trading with a rinky-dink outfit.

Guess people read my GM post yesterday. It's gonna go sub- $10 momentarily.

smn looking good

Look at that DUG go!

Re: taxing assets of those giving up citizenship.

Note that there is a big difference between "leaving the country" and "giving up citizenship". Those giving up citizenship are often trying to shelter wealth outside the US income tax system.

Why would oil reverse next week with the drop in inventories reported today?

ALOHA !!

I understand that PMI GOLD(PMV:TSXV)will begin trading again on Monday 7/7/08 when they announce funding.

Kaimu - PMI, Gold UP, gold stocks DOWN?

Great news if PMI Gold has their funding. I just wish they were a bit more forthcoming in their PR. They have a great story to tell: micro-mining, "green" in the sense of underground rather than strip mining, great community relations.

Do you or anyone else have an idea why gold is up .5%, and GDX down almost 2%?

go figure ...

Not looking good for a rally as all of yesterday's buying is being undercut and selling is accelerating.

Adding to VLO and nibbled MEE. Call 12.50 on GM.

ESLR 500 at 8.90

200 TBT 68.30

Wow, yet another bloodbath for the bulls. Is this ever going to stop?

On a second thought, I think everyone has already given up on this market going up before the holidays, and so we might see a bounce tomorrow (short sellers will probably be taking profits tomorrow rather than opening new shorts). So I just sold some VLO puts and also bought some ESLR and SWC.

DavidV

This DUG is something else. Mid morning I was googling local area bridges...mid afternoon I was googling local Porsche dealerships. Hope it takes off from here. I waited long enough.

Everyone have a good 4th!

Cowboy!

DZZ - Making a bid @$25.02

ZNN defying gravity, up 11% since my post this AM, 18% on the day, as high as 25%, on 6x Volume. Level 2 shows there are no shares available for sale to fulfill orders all the way to $11.

nemo: oil will reverse its course after 4th of July if the administration decides that it should reverse its course. Remember: political power always trumps economic power. For one thing, they can sell some oil from the strategic petrolium reserve. They can make some changes to the law. They can start a new wave of propaganda on TV that will scare the speculators. Many things can be done. I think the reason why administration let oil rise above $140 is that they want to do some extreme things that otherwise they would not be able to gather support for.

DavidV

ALOHA !!

Jock ... Everyone knows the gold shorts always make an attempt to take the POG down before the weekend. The weekend, due to July 4th, starts on Friday, so for Thursday it does not take a genius to figure out a POG bashing is at hand ... or at least an attempted bashing! HA!!

PMI ... what can I say? PMI is under the radar of the Sprotts and the BMOs and Canacorrds of the World. Without their promo machines you get share prices like PMI has! Honesty and hard work does not account for much in the banking sectors that finance juniors! These guys only want in once the heavy lifting is all done and then they want in on the cheap on top of it! How else can these guys afford their $7.15mil mansions?

QT- there are medications to control those kinds of mood swings, my man ;)

Old Goat, there's been interesting discussion about what to do with underwater positions lately. I appreciate your comments. I now have no FXP and bought DUG a couple of days ago.

I have a lot of experience with underwater positions, and have averaged returns to my stock portfolio of about 20% a year since 1998. I have a different approach from many of the folks on this board (although not QT apparently). I like to take a reasoned view on what the general trend of the market is, get a personal sense of what the upside and downside risks are, think about where different asset classes are headed, and then take a position that I belive will ride the most probable trend for a particularly investment timeframe, which is often a few weeks or months. then if the market goes against me, I'm more often than not willing to sit on losses if I think I'm right about the trend in my timeframe for that particular investment.

For example, with FXP, I came out of it with a basis of 77 and sold my position at an average of about 84 because I was willing to wait. (And on 2000 shares, plus a couple of RTs with $1 to 1.50 gains, that's a reasonable absolute return...)

When AES went from about 30 to 1 after the Enron collapse, I began buying at $1.26 and bought up to about $6, holding til about $20. There were weeks where I took 30% losses due to the mad mind of the market. If I had been stopped out, or if I had lost nerve and sold, my losses would have been in the tens of thousands, and my gains never would have appeared, because I probably would have lost interest in the company.

My point is that given the volitility of the market during panics, being right about the longer trend is critical, as is willingness to tolerate the inevitable downturns. Frankly, if I tried to day trade every hunch I had about which direction either the market or a particular security was going, I'd (a) go nuts; (b) waste a lot of time; and (c) make a lot less than I do getting the broad trends right and sticking to positions with some discipine and patience. I can't say this would work for everyone, but I am risk tolerant and reasonably successful in identifying the medium and long term trends. (Of course, reading Bill's ideas and the ideas of you folks here helps tremendously as well...)

My sense now is that we will still see the drop to Dow 10,000 that Bill has suggested is coming, and I believe that the demand destruction associated with $140 oil will eventually cause a sharp reversal in the oil market. I waited quite a while (to $142/bbl) to buy DUG, which is the kind of discipline that for me is important.

Finally, I have to say that the one feature of my investment approach that I am reconsidering is position size. On the one hand, making small amounts on numerous positions is not worth my time. On the other hand, putting 33% of my portfolio into AES or Asian mutual funds isn't something I will be repeating. I'm finding that a 1% position seems a bit small to warrent the effort, but it seems that positions up to 5% are reasonable for me, and I suppose there will still be times (like when the market starts going up again) when 10% in an AIG or HBC or some homebuilder that looks like it will survive will make sense.

BTW, I have about 20% in TBT right now, and have gone from a good gain to a bearable loss....

Alaskan Pete: On the taxation issue...what's really wrong with US taxation of US citizens is that the tax laws are based on citizenship, not where you reside. Almost all countries in the world today tax you based on residency and/or real property ownership (because property denotes that you intend to reside). When my wife and I left Sweden after 5 years and moved to Germany she stopped paying taxes in Sweden and became a German taxpayer. I, on the other hand, had to continue filing US tax returns the whole time I lived overseas despite not receiving any benefits of living in the USA. I believe that only 3 countries in the world tax in this way, North Korea, Cuba, and the USA...kind of ironic to me.

DavidV:

So, are you in the camp that this is not a supply/demand story? Thanks for answering

2nd

What a day?
Sold all financial including IBN in morning and
Got in IBN at end again
Wish I did not sold SMN/DUG yesterday
Also added ESLR and TBT. I park my money in TBT now
Instead of cash
We will have a bounce but we are going down.
I had a time to talk to trader today and their view is financial are worse than they looks
And we are going down to 10000. But will not go down straight we will have rally

So why is DUG up 5.4% with oil hitting $144? I thought it was short oil and gas???

QT: I think DUG is a dangerous play now. If the oil does not reverse its course, DUG will probably keep going down. If the oil does reverse its course, the whole market will rejoice and will be pulling the oil company shares up. The refiners might be a better plan on oil going down than DUG, as they will get a double boost in the oil down, market up scenario.

DavidV

If I turn a long term DJIA chart upside down, I see a parabolic upward move culminating in a big volume day without further price progress up. Plus an additional day that tried to take out the highs but didn't, on less volume. This would be a chart ripe for shorting, no?

The big fly in the ointment for current short-term longs is that oil actually closed @ a new high today... at least the dollar didn't break lower resistance. yet, that is.

I am neutral on oil as the arguments on both sides seem valid to me. But my cynical part tells me that there is a good chance the crack spread will go through the roof once the election cycle is over regardless of the oil price. And the refiner stocks will probably reflect that even before the elections. Small position though.

DavidV, that's an interesting take on DUG. I may sell and take my position tomorrow, but still expect demand destruction to take its toll.

Re: taxing assets of those giving up citizenship.

Funny how they sneak those little things into legislation.

Question, where do they go? EU countries have extremely high tax rates. most likely someplace warm and humid, which would be nice.

Taxes and politics.... recently had a conversation about taxes with a friend. Perception is reality. I don't have the actual tax numbers of who pays what amount of dollars in taxes at each percentage quartile of the population...

But i did find this information to be interesting...

1913 - 16th amendment to Constitution Authorizes Federal Income Tax
1917 - Top Marginal rate on income hiked to 73% as US enters WW1
1926 - Top rate, after many reductions was 25%
1936 - Amid depression, top rate is 79% and estate and gift taxes are instituted
Get this....
1945 - WW2 causes top rate to 91% and stays there throughout peacetime
1964 - Tax cut, that was initiated by the late JFK brought top rate down to 70%
1974 - IRAs are introduced
1981 - Reagan has top rate reduced to 50%
1986 - Tax reform law passes "closes loopholes", top bracked 28%
1990 - "read my lips, no new taxes" GWH Bush raises top rate to 31%
1993 - Clinton puts top rate at 39.6^
2001 - GWB cuts top rate to 35%

NOT to get to political but I would find it a bit "patriotic" for those affluent wealthy people to do their part and except that if higher taxes come, it isn't that bad considering the past.

I am a total "supply sider" however after seeing these numbers and our 9.4 trillion deficit (which of the 304m americans each owe $31,000). Time to pay up and give something back to the land that brought opportunity.

We need more "civic duty" volunteers, in a brief statement. More ought to get involved in the following.
-run for office
-enlist in the military
-peace/americorps
-pay more taxes

Just a though.

http://www.box.net/shared/static/c9jnwxgcgk.xls

Here's the weekly sector report--it is as of 07.01.

Oil run up on the first 'cane will be the time to short. Expect strength into mid July.

Planning to hold CEO and PBRA forever.

DZZ - I was thinking this might cover both oil and gold simultaneously, while some disconnect risk does exist re: oil.

nemo - My feeling is oil is combo Supply/Demand and spec. If specs feel the tail waging there will be a break, maybe below $100. This will take POG down too. I think this is what Bill has been eluding to.

OIL - I hear China has been stockpiling pre-Olympics. Post-Olympics, China demand will ease?

norm -
The reality is that the top tax bracket is mostly applied to upper-middle class. Those in the top few percent of the food chain pay mostly 15% capital gain taxes (given they did not manage to hide the gains offshore).
I am a strong proponent of a simple flat rate tax system with no special capital tax treatment, marriage penalties, ATM etc. Low income group tax burden can be compensated by much higher personal exemption.
I also believe "use" tax should be applied instead of income tax whenever possible. For example road infrastructure maintenance should be financed by "use" tax on gasoline rather than income tax and so on.

typo AMT not ATM...

Don't forget, China has started its own petroleum reserve. Mmmmmh...as Kaimu said, the US Military is the largest user of oil/fuel in the world. What are the odds the SPR is for the military?

Regarding becoming a cop or enlisting in the army...Poor cops have an almost impossible job these days. They're walking targets, and it's gonna' get much worse. As far as the military...they have really cool toys, but why get your ass shot off for those who control the money. In the end, that's who your working for.

IMO you'll never see a flat tax in this country. It would take too much power away from the Federal Government.

I'd be all for paying higher taxes if my government didn't turn around and hand them out to dishonest bankers (or start more wars).

Norm for President on his tax program/perceptions alone.

If this is the land of opportunity and those at the very top have obviously enjoyed the majority of opportunity, then all talk of class warfare should be met with the ultimate in disgust bythose being fired upon.

When the very top (read Bill Gates/Warren Buffett) agree, then I'm puzzled by those who have benefitted most complaining while the bottom struggles to make ends meet.

Clearly what has made the place what it is (great) is those benefitting the most paying the most for the upkeep/infrastructure so that production and the benefits to all continue.

I don't care about the system used, flat is fine but there will need to be adjustments just like the average business owner uses to offset their expenses. There will always be accountants, right? As far as lower income...as long as the exemption is not more deductable for more kids I'm good with it. We should not be flipping the bill for more kids to the poor for more write-off. That is ass-backwards. More kids cost more, not less. We aren't operating on a bulk pricing system, especially as the costs for education, health care etc. rise with inflation/fiat printing due to those breaks.
People should have it impressed upon them that having kids is a financial responsibility, and they will have to bear the full expense or keep it zipped up/be responsible with prevention, you know?

nemo, I am sure the supply/demand fundamentals are in favor of oil rising in the long-term. However, I believe the rise should be smaller than 100% per year, which we have witnessed during the past year. Whenever a clear uptrend based on fundamentals is identified, people have a tendency of buying ahead of time and compressing the future expectations into the present. This inevitably creates a bubble, which then bursts, and then a new bubble starts, etc. I believe that right now we are very close to the first bubble bursting.

DavidV

Rumour mill

There is information on a website today which discusses unsual money transfers occuring in China and New York. It was reported that a large number of UN employees were transfering money out of the country.

Could one link this to the recent warnings by RBC,Barclays and Fortis of a serious global financial problem could occur?

The website is www.whatdoesitmean.com. Whether it is credible information... or not is up to the reader. Just a heads up in case it has some credibility.

Today's trade : Gold and petrol profits skimmed today. Walking around money for the traders holiday weekend.

Craig - you rise a complex question. For a nation to maintain a stable workforce via self-reproduction and not immigration alone certain incentives for raising kids make sense imho. But I see your point also. An optimal solution is always a compromise.

Craig said "...As far as lower income...as long as the exemption is not more deductable for more kids I'm good with it. We should not be flipping the bill for more kids to the poor for more write-off. That is ass-backwards. More kids cost more, not less. We aren't operating on a bulk pricing system, especially as the costs for education, health care etc. rise with inflation/fiat printing due to those breaks.
People should have it impressed upon them that having kids is a financial responsibility, and they will have to bear the full expense or keep it zipped up/be responsible with prevention, you know?"

I vote for you for Prez for that insight alone Craig. I never did understand that concept.

Nemo

I guess I didn't drive home my point.
Civic duty could be a fireman too. Or it could be anything that is giving back to your community. ie work or free services.

Military isn't for everyone but it does build great character to those who embrace it. Socially it isn't prestigious or some other word.
The only time the military gets supported us when something bad happens and the yellow ribbons get made in the factories. That is a shame.

My point is 304 mil ppl and no one gives back.

Taxes.

The rich (1%) pay 34% of the tax dollars. So if you want to call that cap gains or whatever it is still more than their share.
See link below for the joint economic committee numbers.

It should siprise everyone. Flat tax wouldnt pay the bills in my opinion. Besides what would CPAs do?
http://tinyurl.com/3hocc

My orginal point was if you can't serve or donate than you should pay.

Than again we would rather turn on our iPod and ignore the problem.

Craig.
You are an ally and an enemy from time to time. That is awesome on the contrast of views.

To all.
Don't listen to the kudlow crap that the rich can't pay anymore taxes. They can afford it and. Do more.

Nemo

I guess I didn't drive home my point.
Civic duty could be a fireman too. Or it could be anything that is giving back to your community. ie work or free services.

Military isn't for everyone but it does build great character to those who embrace it. Socially it isn't prestigious or some other word.
The only time the military gets supported us when something bad happens and the yellow ribbons get made in the factories. That is a shame.

My point is 304 mil ppl and no one gives back.

Taxes.

The rich (1%) pay 34% of the tax dollars. So if you want to call that cap gains or whatever it is still more than their share.
See link below for the joint economic committee numbers.

It should siprise everyone. Flat tax wouldnt pay the bills in my opinion. Besides what would CPAs do?
http://tinyurl.com/3hocc

My orginal point was if you can't serve or donate than you should pay.

Than again we would rather turn on our iPod and ignore the problem.

Craig.
You are an ally and an enemy from time to time. That is awesome on the contrast of views.

To all.
Don't listen to the kudlow crap that the rich can't pay anymore taxes. They can afford it and. Do more.

Craig

I can't be elected prez, so i'll be the VP. Not born in states.

2012 work for you?

The way the global economy evolves now will have a great (negative) impact on skill spectrum of US immigration. The days of infinite supply of educated asian and eastern europeans workforce is coming to an end imho. If US wants to stay competitive it must both (i) reproduce and (ii) educate new workforce.

Someone asked earlier why KOL, the coal ETF was down. Arch Coal, ACI, closed down nearly 20% today. This may have something to do with it.

Georgia Judge Yanks Coal Power Permit on Climate Concerns

http://tinyurl.com/6jucdz

Whatdoesitmean dot com is a hoax site.

That site is entertainment at its best.

Do your own research and google the "author" of those hilarious articles.

If large amounts of money was leaving doesn't the fed have to know about it?
Would that info leak to the Times or CNN news?

I laughed yesterday when I saw rush hour three. Good scene or two with the French cab driver but I really laughed reading. Those articles.

Maybe I am ignorant.

That is my opinion

allen- reference your 435pm post: i like your comments about being underwater, and think they represent a solid approach to handling positions that (initially) go against you...

to expect outsize gains, you have to enter positions BEFORE the majority (and sometimes AGAINST the majority)...if that's the case, then you're pretty much on your own as far as finding support...but that's exactly why the opportunity arises to begin with, right? if everyone agreed with your decision, it would be a very crowded trade...since almost no one agrees with you, then you have to expect the reasonable: your position will initially go DOWN, since that is the path of least resistance-> and you learn to become comfortable with being underwater...

having faith in one's decisions is a mark of maturity, not only in trading, but in life...it allows you to tune out the garbage and focus instead on what makes/will make you successful in any endeavor...

underwater? sometimes that can be a pretty cool place...

David: I agree with Allen I like the refinery option as one way to handle the oil reverse.

Oil: My bet is it's still going to go up a bit more. I don't know how long, a week or month or more. Too many people are thinking it has to burst now... and we all know it's being kept artificially high. So the question really becomes: does it benefit the people who are keeping it high to lower the game now. From what I see. No.

The reason I say this is:
In fact we are seeing even more intense pressure to keep it high. I think we are seeing blatant moves to consolidate money and power now.

So my question to everyone here is: who does the high oil benefit the most right now, as it literally breaks companies/nations apart? When answering this question correctly, then it also answers how long it will stay high.

This market manipulation feels very malicious, extreme and reminds me of economic warfare behind the scenes as player ruthlessly consolidate positions now, and its spilling out now to be much more open. Bill and others have mentioned this in various posts, and the extreme oil position against reason, supports this as fact. It's not against reason, it's for purpose at this stage. Its just a question of who's purpose.

As Kaimu and I pointed out this weekend, welcome to the warring states period all over again.