Hi!

As may of you know I have been away from the keyboard and trading due to personal health reasons, which will still take some more time to solve.

Still, I very much apreciate dropping by to say hello and to thank Bill once more for all the wonderful things he keeps doing on behalf of the independent trader.

Now, I would like to share something which I ran across yesterday and I find very interesting: Prof Randy Pausch from Carnegie Mellon University knew about 7 months ago that he had a terminal illness that would give him 6 months to live.

He gave his last lecture on "achieving your childhood dreams" and facilitating that others achieve theirs. This lecture was given in a positive, upbeat tone, and is a true lesson about life.

Through his mentorship, Bill is helping many of us achieve our childhood dreams. Bless him for it.

The lecture can be found here:

http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo

Enjoy your day.

Cheers!

House of Pain?

http://tinyurl.com/5lzrkv

Nice to hear from you Maromatics, I always enjoy your posts, I hope your health problems are resolved soon.

[Bill Cara note: Yes, get well soon, my friend.]

Russia takes control of Turkmen (world?) gas

Gazprom, Russia's energy leviathan, has signed two major agreements in a new scheme to purchase gas from Turkmenistan. This deals the United States a huge defeat in the race for Caspian gas and strengthens Moscow's hand in setting the price of world gas.

http://tinyurl.com/64t5xe

good to hear from you maromatics, get well.

Maromatics,

My prayers are with you.

note: Jock may have posted this before.

Russia's energy drive leaves US reeling

In early July, Medvedev undertook a diplomatic tour of the Caspian region, covering Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In Azerbaijan's capital Baku, he made a stunning offer that Russia was prepared to buy Azerbaijan's entire gas output at market prices.

Medvedev succeeded in prevailing over competing European and US rivals in the struggle for Turkmen gas. He further ensured that oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will not bypass Russia. But what has truly incensed the Bush administration are Gazprom's dramatic inroads into Africa.

Russian giant Gazprom, the largest extractor of natural gas in the world, has announced plans to build a pipeline across the Mediterranean to pump Libyan gas to Europe. This is the final lap of a Kremlin strategy that involves Gazprom handling the entire output of Libya's gas, oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) designated for export to Europe and the US.

Washington hit back by ensuring that Russian companies are left out in the cold from the 30 contracts for lucrative oil deals that Baghdad is awarding. It is a big blow for Russia. In February, Moscow had written off US$12 billion or 93% of Iraq's debt to Russia in a move that was widely seen as aimed to help Russian oil company LUKoil regain the Saddam Hussein-era rights to develop Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oil field. But under US pressure, the Iraqi government is now awarding West Qurna-2 to the US's Chevron.

Kremlin didn't show any anger, but coincidence or not, Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller suddenly arrived in Tehran on Monday and discussed with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad the setting up of an organization of gas-producing countries. No doubt, with the Russian foothold in Libya (which has estimated natural gas reserves of 1.47 trillion cubic meters), in coordination with Algeria (which currently supplies over 10% of Europe's gas supplies), Qatar (with proven natural gas reserves of 25.8 trillion cubic meters) and Iran (which has the world's second-largest reserves after Russia), the time for a "Gas OPEC" is approaching.

The Iranian leader also suggested to Miller a market-sharing arrangement so that Russia and Iran could "collectively meet the demands of Europe, India and China in the gas sector". During the visit, an agreement was signed on the development of Iran's oil and gas fields by Russian companies; on Russian participation in the transfer of Iran's Caspian Sea crude oil to the Oman Sea; cooperation in the development of Iran's fabulous North Azadegan oil field; and, possible participation of Gazprom in the planned Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. Evidently, Moscow took a deliberate decision to press ahead with Iran in energy cooperation in the full glare of world publicity in complete disregard of US displeasure. Tehran loved it.

In sum, the past week's flow of events in places as far apart as Prague, Hokkaido, Tbilisi, Harare, Tehran and the Arctic underscored that after a brief respite, the rivalries over energy security have revived with a ferocity that can rock the equilibrium of overall US-Russia relations. The situation will likely be exacerbated in the coming period. The geopolitics of energy security are a highly sensitive subject for the Bush administration, whose profound links with Big Oil are legion. It is a tremendous loss of face for the Bush-Cheney-Rice combine that Moscow is outwitting the US on the energy front.

http://tinyurl.com/6gun7x

maromatics,

get well soon, and get to the computer when you can!

Mmmmmh! I stated on an earlier post (posted very late on a daily discourse so nobody likely saw it), that I've been intrigued by Bill's belief that Central Banks (fiat currencies) will survive, which of course, is counterpoint to Kaimu's financial Ragnaroc.

Being a charter Member of DENSA, I was thinking that since the US Peso is a reserve currency, and so widely held, can the world allow it to fail? That is, the world-wide counterparty risk is too great systemically to make this prudent, although it would seem natural justice would deem it the best outcome. Since we know the world isn't fair, and moral hazard is often rewarded, it makes sense.

Now, over the last week we've seen where Mexico stopped selling dollars, which brought their Peso down. Canada and England both are utilizing similar tactics as the US, which should weigh on their currencies. We are also seeing Sovereign country infusions of capital, although the deals are somewhat opaque in their terms. From a financial system integrity point of view (even though this one is held together with baling wire and chewing gum)it's in the interest of very few to see it completely fail. The fly in the ointment would be Putin, Chavez, and perhaps China from purely strategic points of view. Although, because of the economic dependency, China is unlikely to want to debilitate the US completely. Putin, on the other hand, expanding his empire through energy, wants to knock the US off it's doorstep. The question seems, is it in his best interest to do to the US what Reagan did in the 80's through massive military spending. This time, he'll cartelize gas and remove oil from he market to bankrupt the US.

File under: "Musings of a Moron"

Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes in play today:

Upgrade:

SYT - to Equal Weight @ Lehman Bros.

New Coverage:

PBR - Overweight @ HSBC

--------------------------------------------------

Nice to see you, maromatics. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.

Have a great day, all.

Jefferson warned us of 230 years ago when he said:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

maromatics- good to hear from you! any health problem "which will still take some more time to solve" is obviously not minor- my family's been through a couple of those...best wishes, my man

from tradinggoddess blog:

"This is how it works folks, they herd the assets (and real estate is the most real of all assets) into pools and then they poison the pools, force everyone out, buy the assets up cheap and then miraculously (at great expense to the taxpayers) turn it around and end up hodling the deed to most of the land in the country which they will then sell back to the people for 5 to 10 times more than they paid for it until the land is once again in the hands of the people, at which point they start the cycle all over again. This scam was run in the great depression and it took us 30 years to recover from that one!"

maromatics,

Wish you a speedy recovery. I'm glad that you came upon "The Last Lecture". I hope it offered some comfort and inspiration. We are visiting at Carnegie Mellon right now. Paush's spirit is alive here and many young people took notes of his teaching. Many prayers with you.

Macromatics,
It's great hearing from you. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.

Rob.

Has anyone else noticed something odd about the RSI Application this morning? It seems the "Zone (estimate)" column is not generating the full deck of comments it should, even though a look at the RSI numbers seem to indicate comments should be present. Maybe me just being dense.

We left Thursday for the Adirondacks and just got back late last night. The market was in rally mode when we left but seems to have crashed yesterday.

Look at how much inside info must have been around about MER yesterday as it plunged all day. I think they're more toxic than LEH.

According to CT, since the S&P broke 1250 we're headed for a test of 1120. If that happens my DIA and COF puts will be really kicking butt. I'm currently up 40% on them after being down close to 20% when I bought too early. That's why I alway buy long-dated options. These are for JAN 09.

Good luck everyone!!

Rob.

Maro,

Wishing you a speedy recovery. Thousands of prayers are coming your way from around the world.

Cara 100 Update:

SNDK - Downgraded to Below Average @ Caris & Co.

Did SLV go through a 10-1 split or something? It must have but I don't see any news about it.

Rob.

maromatics, my best wishes for a full and speedy recovery.

I have also missed your contributions to Bill's discourse. Come back again soon.

jk484 Trading Godess' is the theory I subscribe to.

What happened , Gold fall off a cliff???

Same as yesterday,,,

Re SLV from their website:

NEWSROOM
PRESS RELEASE
For Immediate Release

07/11/2008

Barclays Global Investors Announces Share Split of iShares® Silver Trust
San Francisco, July 11, 2008 - Barclays Global Investors (BGI), a worldwide leader in exchange-traded funds, announced today that the Board of Directors of Barclays Global Investors International, Inc. has authorized a 10 for 1 split of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust for shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 21, 2008, payable after the close of trading on July 23, 2008. The Trust shares will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis on July 24th. Post-split shares are expected to be distributed to shareholders' accounts on July 28, 2008, and shareholders are expected to see the change in their holdings sometime after July 28th, depending upon their brokerage firm's procedures.

The 10-for-1 split will lower the share price and increase the number of outstanding shares. The total value of shares outstanding is not affected by a split.

john uk - from my post prior to yesterday's close:

GLD - Is that potentially a "falling three methods" bearish candlestick pattern in the making on the daily chart? If so, tomorrow could be a big down day. Not sayin', just askin'. DYODD.

Posted by: OldGoat at July 28, 2008 3:57 PM

RH,

If you give me an example where you think the RSI Application should have a Zone comment, but it doesn't, I can check it out. At a first glance it looks ok, but I was far from thorough.

Jeff

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures declined early Tuesday, as falling oil prices and a higher U.S. dollar left traders inclined to sell the precious metal.

http://tinyurl.com/5suoq9

taking 1/2 the UAUA off at 7.79...

Maromatics,
Good to hear from you!
One day at-a-time my friend.
You have a lot of friends on this board, I kindly request to be included.
All the best,
From somewhere in the Greek Islands,
Gus

David- that's a fast drop in oil...

I'll offer up a prayer for you Macro. I watched most of Prof Randy Pausch lecture 2 days ago. As a continuing survivor of bladder cancer (surgery and chemo) of 2 years, I am amazed at what medicine is doing and am very, very grateful to all the staff working in these areas.

john uk - "falling three methods" is a bearish continuation pattern, suggesting more downside in coming days.

http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-falling-three-methods-candlestick.html

All the best, maromatics. Let us know if there's any way we can help. Information is a good weapon in the fight against illness, and there are thousands of eyes on the internet, here, at your disposal.

Jeff, I know yesterday I had maybe 10 to 15 that were "Buy Alerts" and that number is down to 3 today. I don't know the conditions or algorithm for when a buy alert is negated to "no comment" and yet the weekly and monthly RSIs are still below 30 and the daily above 30. To point to a few that puzzled me today- WFMI, TM, TGT, SBUX, BA, DEO.

My guess is I am missing something simple. TIA for your explanation.

david- could take time for sentiment in the airline sector to shift-> hanging on to the balance for the next leg up...

vinod- GLW taking off!

Hi Guys,
Just a quick check-in to see how everyone is doing.....from the land of the denizens of the legal, medical, real estate and estate sales world of mom's assisted living marathon madness.

I offed all but CHSCP/CNSL/ESLR and WGW before leaving for California and I'm glad I did as I can at least sleep soundly buying low and then sitting on my fat Divs waiting for Panzer's world to play out.

My Best Wishes, Thoughts and Prayers to our friend Maromatics. I'm getting a big lesson in the important things in life, and while the markets are important, like most everything, they will go on without me at some point. It's the human connection that matters while we're here.

Bill and this blog prove it daily. Thank you Bill and again, get well soon Maro.

Cara 100 Update (Final):

SBUX - Target Price Lowered from $19 to $18 @ UBS

high level of skepticism on my part re this rally-> which i have to assume mirrors crowd sentiment-> ergo, bullish indicator...may rally hard today...

RH,

Ok, I see what's going on. Looking at WFMI and SBUX, the buy alert would've been nine (trading) days ago...and that's where I arbitrarily cut it off. I figure that if I'm telling someone there was a buy alert a month ago, that alert is probably useless now, so I pick an arbitrary cut-off point. In markets like this, there are days when "most" stocks tank, and so that can cause them to enter a distribution zone together, exit together on the next market bounce, and then disappear all at the same time. In a more normal market, you wouldn't notice the buy/sell alert disappearing on one or two stocks, but in this market sometimes you'll see what you are seeing.

If you look back at the Saturday Daily Report, you'll see that almost all of the buy alerts were triggered "8 days ago", so if everything stayed the same they would've been "9 days ago" today, but I consider that alert to have "expired" since it's two weeks old.

Does that explain it for you?

Jeff

Jeff- excellent. Thanks for giving me those details. I wasn't aware of the 9 day limit, but should have realized there was some kind of time limit in there. Cheers.

Hi, Maromatics:

Been wondering where you were and sorry to hear of your problem.

Take best care and we'll ALL be looking forward to your early and imminent return.

ronbon

GLD - You can see the "falling three mothods" candlestick pattern forming over the past several days here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gld

oil- contrarian play is it continues down...

GM - Selling here.

Maromatics,

Best Wishes for a speedy recovery.

maromatics,

Much thanks for posting the Randy Pausch video. May you find peace and healing in your life.

..accelerates even on the downhill stretch?

2nd/DavidV - nice call on sticking with the UAUA trade

The major difference, I have learned from reading, between professional trading (boring) and the kind most of us do (a little too exciting) is that pros only sell stocks that are falling and generally only buy stocks that are rising. Amateurs tend to short stocks that are (have) risen and to buy stocks that are (have) fallen, basically the opposite of the pro action. Waddayathink?

UAUA- man, i can't help it, david-> off the table at 8.46...

shark - You channeling Jesse L. today?

"This semisucker type that thinks he has cut his wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines. He waits for them. He measures his bargains by the number of points it has sold off from the top. In big bull markets the plain unadulterated sucker, utterly ignorant of rules and precedents, buys blindly because he hopes blindly. He makes most of the money until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him at one fell swoop."

Morning all. Long time listener & first time poster. I trade my own accounts to the best of my ability and have accumulated a decent amount. I'm posting to ask for more info. about possibly becoming a "Cara Trading Advisor" retail client. Bill mentioned this again in the weekly review and I've promised myself to find out more about it. Good luck with today's trading. John Tish.

shark - I always thought pro traders bought declines (with some form of sound reasoning) and sold advances (to take profit).

More from Jesse L>:
"People don't seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading. I have often said that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks. Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time. When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale."

I imagine pro traders occupy all sorts of market niches so I don't dispute that that occurs. What I am referring to is the idea that, lets say a stock opens at 20. If it rises beyond it's opening range 20-20.50 let's say to 20.60 and trades there for a decent period of time (let's say 10 minutes) a pro will have an up-position or bias and will not consider shorting the issue. Conversely, if it opens at 20 and falls in the first 10 or 20 minutes, to say, 19.40 and stays there more of less for a few minutes, his bias will be short and he will not consider going long. I read this from the guy who trained all of Paul Jones's traders, Mark Fisher. He's got this groovy book The Logical Trader that I am reading. Not saying it's the gospel but it does fly in the face of much that I have done and heard about.

shark - Your comment just above is echoed in Morpheus Trading's rules for trading opening gaps:

http://morpheustrading.com/education_article_gaprules.htm

Shark... that's quite standard Opening Range Break setup... if there is any trend follow-through, it works like a charm.

SKF - loading up here (on rising trend).

ALOHA !!

Maromatics ... ALL THE BEST TO YOU AND YOURS MATE!

Johnuk ... Forget gold charts ... ITS TUESDAY!!!

Hey Chickenpookie:

Hope you bailed on SKF

ALOHA !!

More on MER and what has to be a devastating blow to not only shareholders but employee morale! If the best of MER are leaving what's left? One of the most important criteria for owning any company, even juniors, is management, so if MER were a junior it wouldn't even survive there either, but the only way it is surviving(?)is because of its connections to the US FED and the US TAXPAYER guarantee.

More from Cunning Realist who is inside Wall Street, which is why I like to view his site since he always offers a close-up, but different perspective than CNBC does. In one word he has more "truthiness'!

READ ON:
Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Scuttledbutts?

Barry Ritholtz posted some commuter-train chatter from a couple of Merrill Lynch employees. A quick contribution: I know a senior exec at Merrill who's worked there for a long time. His area is totally unrelated to the mortgage debacle, and his desk is a money-maker. I saw that he just created a listing on LinkedIn, a career networking site for professionals.

If there's one person I wouldn't expect to contemplate a job change or especially to use a site like LinkedIn, it would be him.

posted by The Cunning Realist

For anyone here who likes to buy calls and puts-

I have been eyeing SKF for a couple of days and have been looking at the bid/ask spread on the calls and it scares me. Then it dawned on me that UYG is trading at a much lower price, so the spread is much tighter on the bid/ask. I believe that UYG puts would be a better play than SKF calls. With that said, it is always good when trading options on Ultra's to look at each sides calls/puts. Just my two cents, and happy to be figuring new things out on a daily basis.

Randy Pausch:

"Don't bail; the best gold is at the bottom of barrels of crap."

Brick walls.

jk484,

A couple books that I read earlier in the year might be of interest to you. Written by Michael Klare, the first one is :Blood and Oil, and the 2nd one, his newest, is Rising Powers Shrinking Planet.
Both go into depth about the geopolitics of energy, specifically the importance of the Caspian area, and of course Middle East. I'm sure you would find them most fascinating. After I read them, I was talking about it with everyone for a while, to no avail.

Bill, I've been watching the show "Traders" every night at 11, have you heard of it? I think its a re-run of an older show based in Toronto, but I actually really like it, it shows what I think to be a pretty accurate depiction of the different aspects of the industry, ie. the chaos of a trading floor, the meetings amongst the investment bankers, the politics etc. Perhaps the show was on around the time when you were working on Bay Street and you could confirm or refute the accuracy of the environments, etc. That'd be great.

Maromatics -

Great to see you back on the board. Your insights are always appreciated. May you return quickly to good health and full vigor !

ALOHA !!

MORE ON MER ... I am wondering when the class action lawsuits start up?

READ ON:
Merrill's $5.7B Write-Down, $8.5B Share Issuance
Tuesday, July 29, 2008 | 06:00 AM
in Corporate Management | Credit | Derivatives | Earnings | Valuation

I'm on an earlier than usual train home today, to take the missus out to dinner (she just flew back into NY today). Change at Jamaica, bump into a Natexis derivative trader I know from my old neighborhood. Our train comes, I sit with him, along with his pals from Merrill.

We are talking cars when one of the Merrill guys' Blackberry goes off. He is a CDO manager, and he just got the IM that the big press release just hit the tape. The news about the write down and the new stock issuance is now public. He tells us about it -- Write-Down = $5.7B; Share Issuance = $8.5B -- and we all start talking about it.

My (naive) question: "Wait a second -- didn't Merrill just report last week? How did they not disclose a $5.7 billion dollar whackage?"

Merrill guy's by-the-book-answer: "Earnings were the 17th; The decision had not yet been made to sell the ABS CDOs, or take the writedown, or issue more stock. That was done this week."

I think: "yeah, sure it was." Frickin weasels.

Other Merrill guy says: "Geez, the stock is gonna get hit tomorrow" (ya think?) The stock closed Monday at $24.33, down 55% year-to-date.

Merrill woman: "When do we buy this?"

CDO guy: "When it hits $15"

Me: Ouch!

~~~

The Merrill announcement raises a lot of questions. Investors should be asking questions. If the SEC wasn't so busy chasing rumors, squeezing shorts, and otherwise wasting taxpayer money -- but not protecting shareholders -- they might consider some of the following questions also:

1. Why did Merrill fail to disclose this write-down to shareholders when they reported on July 17th? The stock was $30.73 then; everyone who bought since then just got totally sandbagged.

2. The Financials -- especially Merrill -- traded today as if many people knew this was coming. How much non-public information leaked in advance of this announcement? (Isn't non-public material inside information something the SEC used to care about?)

3. Who really thinks the worst of the write-downs, share issuance, and dilution is behind us? Anyone? Bueller? (These CDOs were vintage 2005. That means we have 06 and 07 yet to go).

4. Anyone think Financials are cheap? You cannot trust the "E," and the "P" is obviously subject to change. Think they might get cheaper?

5. Who really thinks the Financials have put in a bottom?

There is no doubt as to who foisted these losses on Merrill: Rumor-mongers, Short-sellers, and al-Qaeda. Management obviously had nothing to do with this. Hence, the SEC should be spending most of its budget, manpower, and time investigating those issues.

To say I am disgusted is an understatement. The SEC's priorities are warped, they have become an embarrassing paper tiger, and a national disgrace. SEC chairman (let's call him "Ken") better grow a pair and start thinking about that small class of his constituency known as shareholders.

Watch for the same old crowd of bottom callers, and for this to somehow be spun positively . . .END

MER is only off $0.25 as I type this ... I guess the spin worked!

Maro, for you.

Imagination will often carry us to worlds that never were. But without it we go nowhere.

Carl Sagan

Vad,

Thanks for the inspiration.

ALOHA !!

Some MER stats ...

982 mil shares out
935 mil share float
78% institutional owned
(342.3)EPS
(36%)gross margin
(82%)operating margin
(52%)profit margin
5.75%dividend yield
60,000 employees

Why are they paying a dividend?

Chartist

Still learning the basics of TA. With oil down and the market up, TSO seems to be stuck in the mud. Does the TSO chart this morning's indicate it may be preparing to make a move upwards of some sort?

ALOHA !!

ON MER STATS

If it were not for the 60,000 employees, the 5.75% dividend and the 78% institutional owned MER would be less than a junior explorer!

Old Goat ,thanks for link to "falling three methods" candlestick pattern, I had read your comment yesterday,
Kaimu, I know it was Tuesday and time for some orchestrated manipulation of the POG, but it still Irks the heck out of me when I see it drop before my very eyes setting up the boost to the NYSE open.

I just saw this comment on Bloomberg:

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co.'s decision to liquidate $30.6 billion of collateralized debt obligations at a fifth of their face value ``suggests the endgame'' for CDO risk ... and yada yada yada

anyways

why when new games are starting everyone focuses on the end game??

As if the current game would go on as is? But if it's an end game... then by default they are saying time for new game and rules... and yet... 99.99% of people think great, it's back to business as usual.

*sigh* I detest seeing people herded like sheep by word games

Looking to buy some more VLO. Valuation is very cheap. Just reported solid earnings and revenues that beat estimates, despite very high oil prices. If this quarter was the low quarter for earnings, you're looking at a stock that is trading at a 6 p/e relative to this quarter's earnings projected over the course of the year.

long evergreen

skepticism still high, at least on my part...

nemo - SKF - I don't mind holding for a few days. Maybe I'm overlooking something, where do you think financials will be Friday?

Good morning, crowd. :) As I see, while I was asleep, oil has resumed its downtrend and UAUA its uptrend. Some of my limit orders were hit: the UAUA shares I bought yesterday at the close were sold at $8 and then 1/2 of my previous position was sold at $8.5. I am still holding the original bunch of shares that I bought at $7.62. Let's see what happens with them. :)

Also, my VLO limit was hit at $33, for the shares I bought last week at $31.5. As I say, long live the market volatility!

Not everything is working as planned, though, as I bought some T at $32.8, then $31.8, and it doesn't seem to want to move up with the general market, altough my main reason for purchasing it at the start of the summer rally was its previous high correlation with S&P500 and the expectation that it will move up during this rally.

DavidV

vinod- sold 4 -OEBHP at 9.60...difficult options to play-> in yesterday way too early at 8.80...on to other things..

PMXL-1, Brazil's biggest oil and gas sea exploration platform stands at 230m high (equivalent to a 70-story highrise). It will be capable of processing 15 million cubic meters daily and will start operation in Q1 09. You can see a picture (sideways) here:

http://www.estadao.com.br/estadaodehoje/20080729/img/4.23.imagem_petroleo.jpg

Chickenpookie:

Again remembering I am from DENSA, it would seem if something bad is going to happen, it will be later in the week and over the weekend when they usually close banks-well that's what others on this blog say. The drop today makes sense because of the big runup since last week. How much of your position did you put on? Are you looking for a bounce from today's drop tomorrow and maybe a long on Thursday into the weekend?

Bill,

thanks for the info about FDIC. But the question for me right now is what is the percentage failure of financial institutions in current crisis. if we have 1% failure, would it wipe out all of FDIC assets?

For your link, I could not find the answer.

TIA

SandraT, GAPS:

Leisa mention a really incredible site for sector analysis, FINVIZ. If you go to the following link and scroll down to "gaps down," it gives gaps down filling probability based on time and size.

The link: http://finviz.com/services.ashx

C-Town, current bid-ask spread on SKF is 0.38% while in UYG 20 puts is 0.72%. For spreads, SKF is better. Daily volume is $5.5B on SKF and $1.7B for UYG, so SKF is the better vehicle for trading. However, SKF requires relatively deeper pockets.

Shark: Great posts today, you summed up my mistakes very well and what I have learned over the past few months.

I only wish what I read can be directly translated into my actions. It takes fire and action to really learn those lessons and imprint these most basic truths into trading style so natural instincts don't kick into the basic mistakes of bad buying and selling.

Ever hear of naked short sellers?

I'm not naked I sell short in my underwear.

(Come to think of it, everything I do I do in my underwear.)

What does anyone make of the decrease in volume in ESLR as it hits 20 day resistance and makes whatever pattern is being made? Is this weak or a sign of volume drying up at this level hence strength?

Casey,

As a great author on the subject says, should you decide to deviate from sound trading methodologies as WE ALL do from time to time, at least make sure you do it with small size and with an itchy finger on the sell-trigger.

GLD --

I know many here have problems with this ETF (and ETFs, as deriv's in general), but I am going to make this part of my long-gold strategy.

I will be buying more bullion, but I want to be able to "trade in and out" of a precious metal vehicle easily, and GLD offers that option. Until it doesn't. ;-)

My Daily chart showed the 22nd as the day to sell GLD, and, so far, I don't see a time to buy GLD. I'll try to be vigilant and post when I see a short term (holding time of less than 8 weeks) buying time.

apollo7: On FDIC

It's not 1 to 1 for failure, relative to deciding when the system breaks. You have to consider back room dealings, distribution of banks assets when they fail and capacity to re-spin issues (as in point Mer look how they are reshuffling their problem at a fraction of the true cost)

Currency is about motion of trade, in that motion of trade you can hide lots of bigger and worse problems, which is what we are seeing now with the bubbles for instance. IT could take 10% or even 20% failure to trigger a widespread collapse since this system could probably easily jigger around and hide much of the problem in motion of money. Which is what we are seeing right now.

So its not a 1 to 1 relationship.

It's a buffered effect which means no one will be able to accurately judge when the system breaks since no one really knows how much strain the system can take from the motion and reshuffling of the money games.

Shark:
when you said: Trade with an itchy finger on the sell-trigger.

So basically trade as if you had poison ivy ;)

"Bennigan's" and "Steak and Ale" restaurants just filed for Chapter *7* bankruptcy.

I hope this isn't a sign of American service-sector losses to come. For years, food service has been right up there with residential construction as an economic floor. If food service starts to fall like housing, look out below.

Dear Shark,

"Ever hear of naked short sellers?

I'm not naked I sell short in my underwear.

(Come to think of it, everything I do I do in my underwear.)

What does anyone make of the decrease in volume in ESLR as it hits 20 day resistance and makes whatever pattern is being made? Is this weak or a sign of volume drying up at this level hence strength?"

Ehhhh...too much info.

Look at the volume on other solars. NOTHIN!

Guess it was a sign of strength fellas and ladies! YEEEEEHAWWWWWWW!

nemo - Ha! You're absolutely right about weekend bank closures. I'll bet some SEC employees are beginning to hate weekends away from home.

This morning I established an abnormally large (4% of equities port) SKF position, which looks too early (as I often tend to do). A logarithmic SKF bounce prior to Friday would work nicely, but not counting on it. The expectation is more like SKF decay will reverse into partial recovery by end of day trending upward into week-end as traders remind themselves of the big picture. More banks are likely to fail... SKF will spike.

Long term - I'm thinking financials will continue barrel-roll into year-end before any kind of clear recovery takes shape. Oil - We'll see what happens with this vital commodity which ships from US-PESO hoarding producers.

The tunnel might be actually be a vertical cave full of water in which some of us may well drown.

Meanwhile, waiting for POG to come to the aid of my portfolio.

My opposite trade (should my sentiment reverse) would entail SSO.

Thank you, Casey, for your answer.

I guess no one can know whether there is a system failure. Even Don Coxe agreed that this may be the bottom of crisis.

What is the safest place to have larger amounts of money stored away from individual banks?

Would everyone agree that Tbills purchased directly from TreasuryDirect is probably the safest way to own larger amounts of money (greater than $1M)?

Ok I'm going to the beach....Who's buying the beer?

Blowout Preventer -

CEF is a better alternative to GLD, though it is half silver and half gold bullion.

Hey sharkie!

If you don't get volume on eslr before the close, what retracement do you expect tomorrow?

What might be nice about these moves, is they are occuring while oil is breaking. Used to be correlative oil up, solar up, oil down, solar down. Might not have to worry about that dynamic anymore.

5.8 quake hits LA, hope anyone in the area is ok

ESLR - Congrats and welcome home, sharkie!!!

GTU, 100% gold.

Thank you, moab!

AlaBill:

I think the answer really depends on how much money you are talking about and what is the time frame in which you want to be able to redraw that money out.

Otherwise any answer given would be too generic and not fit to the needs of the situation you are in.

However, I wouldn't mind having stock in Kaimu's sock drawer about now, you are better than a bank my friend :)

AlaBill:

Opps I should also say location matters as well as home country right now, as the US begins to tighten foreign holdings.

So you did mention 1mil + but the other two factors also matter I would suspect as equally to the proper answer.

of course I am not the one to go further since that is out of my area of range by several dreams of magnitude. :)

AlaBill - are you keeping the USD denomination? Inflation has depreciated the USD by +40% over the last century. Look at price of gold for evidence...

It's a difficult decision - Many feel physical gold is best for wealth preservation. Perhaps diversification would be a wise consideration?

Oops.. I meant decade, not century...

Hey Pookie! You were right, this century...

From Bill's review:

"The capital markets can no longer accept such deceitful practices as the norm if the market is to remain an effective value pricing tool. Right now, it’s a joke. The authorities must fail to understand the importance of such matters at hand. Either that or they are complicit in what is going on."

Wouldn't such actions be equivalent to regulators looking the other way on bank solvency. IMO Washington can't have too many failures too close together or else it affects confidence (right Kaimu) of course the balancing act between confidence in the financial system and the markets is the rub. Given the incestuous relationship between Wall Street and Washington, I would think they pretty much are taking a bit of a blind eye to this stuff. Better those evil regional banks take the hit. It's probably a similar dynamic to the Martha Stewart debacle.

[Bill Cara note: Re complicity by regulators, I doubt it would be an active thing; but I do put weight behind passive complicity as in why bother to spend the money that pisses both Wall St and Washington.]

teamonfuego: I just read what Reuters had to say about today's earnings report by VLO [http://tinyurl.com/66pbfr
], and it didn't seem very encouraging. Their earnings are down 67% and "Valero Chief Executive Bill Klesse said in a statement that gasoline margins will continue to be weak and industrywide refinery utilization rates will continue to drop through the end of next year."

What grounds for optimism did you see in the report? I hope it is there, as I am still holding some VLO.

DavidV

maybe it's time to buy YHOO now that Yang has T Boone out of his hair...

I sure got pantsed on the SKF, a little good news went much further than I thought. Still holding the SKF....

shark- if i saw a naked short seller i'd tell him put on some shorts...

and if i saw a covered short seller i'd tell him to keep them on...

DavidV

They must like something in that report. VLO is up 1.40 and even my "dog" TSO is up 0.50.

Tomorrow TSO reports, that will be very interesting. I wonder if today's increase in the stock price is a sign the street is expecting no surprises from TSO?

vinod- i guess india got over it...IBN/TTM/PIN all up...CAF up close to 4%...VLO up 5%...

what's NOT funny is the three stocks we DIDN'T buy are up twice as much-> C, WM, FRE...

unbelievable...

2nd
it was a good day
got SKF at 124.00
and sold all from yesterday

The time to buy SKF is in Elder's value zone - near the 200 day moving average. I will start legging into it when it gets there.

This kind of volatility will only get worse as credit continues to dry up.

Summer rally schedule:
day 1 - fizzle, pop; Loose 200 on the dow.
day 2 - wham bam; Make up entire loss.
day 3 - 5 Rinse and repeat?

The harmonics must be converging on first order.

2nd_ave, if UAUA is 90% off its highs and is now in an uptrend, why not keep a 50% position in it and place a sell stop order below today's closing price for tomorrow? I know you don't like stops as they are rutinely taken out, but if a stock is in an uptrend, I think the chance of it gapping higher (as today) is bigger than that of testing your stop, if it is placed sufficiently low. Let's see if this theory holds for tomorrow :), as I am still keeping a 50% position in UAUA. I'll place a sell stop order 10c below today's closing price (hopefully above $8.4). My cost basis is $7.62, so even if it gets hit tomorrow, I won't be very upset.

DavidV

vinod- not complaining, man...it was a very good day...congrats...

2nd
counting for GLW to hit 24?
we will find out tomorrow

2nd
could not post during the day because of work

David- the short answer is i don't trust any logical moves in this market...which is why you're twice as frustrated, as you make very good cases for your trades...

vinod- don't tell me you sold OEBHP at 11.30..

2nd
IBN/TTM/PIN do not follow Indian market
Indian market was down today
also IBN moves up and down a lot
that is the reason I like to trade it

2nd
I will email my oex trade later on tonight

Anyone notice that gold has been following the yield curve move for move?

Chart: http://tinyurl.com/667mgy

Hey Pookie!

Might need some vaseline with your SKF. GDP number is Thursday. You'll probably see some bounce tomorrow, but I have a sneakin' suspicion GDP will be better than expected, which, unless there is some financial news between now and then, will croak SKF.

nemo - Thanks for heads up. Depending on bounce tomorrow might sell SKF else might add to position following GDP and exit any green longs (all longs are red at present). Still have a little dry powder...

vaseline - that would be JNJ for my SKF... HA!!! wouldn't that be a hoot???

David - it's all relative. Headline says 67% down, but they beat estimates on top and bottom and if you think $1.37/quarter is bad, you need to compare it to a stock trading at $33/share. I still think this has the potential to go up 30% to 40%...I'm holding for $40 and if it gets there I'll reassess. I hedged my pick with APWR in case oil spikes back up.

Hey Casey:

Know anything about this guy: www.tao.org

nemo:

I don't know Alex Anatole.

However, I know Dr. Alex Feng who I love dearly and is a wonderful Taoist Master who teaches out of Oakland:

http://tinyurl.com/5fzsj5

Or if you are on the east coast (NYC) then check out Sat Hon :) who also cracks me up and is a master.

http://tinyurl.com/6f75ts

nemo:

I don't know Alex Anatole.

However, I know Dr. Alex Feng who I love dearly and is a wonderful Taoist Master who teaches out of Oakland:

http://tinyurl.com/5fzsj5

Or if you are on the east coast (NYC) then check out Sat Hon :) who also cracks me up and is a master.

http://tinyurl.com/6f75ts

hmmm the blog seems to be hic-cupping

Been gone most of the day, checking in . . .

maromatics, sorry to hear about your health challenges, but glad you have prioritized your focus on resolving the issues . . thoughts & prayers w/you.

Craig, hope your well in the land of earthquakes. Be safe my friend.

Higher interest rates, falling dollar?

From Everbank's Daily Pfennig: US Treasury predicted it would borrow 53 percent more this quarter than initially forecast. Borrowing needs will rise to $171 billion in the three months to Sept. 30, $59 billion more than predicted in April. I guess the good news is that total, if realized, is still slightly smaller than the $244 billion borrowed in the first three months of this year.

Who will be standing in line to purchase all of this debt? And what happens to the dollar if/when foreign investors decide they have enough IOUs from the US Treasury and need to be enticed to purchase more. The result will be higher rates here in the US as fewer buyers will demand higher interest to encourage them to purchase the new debt. Another way for the US to entice foreign investors is to lower the value of the US$ in order to make these new Treasury securities cheaper to purchase. I believe we will likely see a combination of the two, higher rates along with a falling US$.

moab - Bill reiterated the gold:t-bill relationship in today's discourse intro. IRX - isn't that the 16 week t-bill?

Re: Counterparties

I suppose the in the aftermath of the financial meltdown, we are seeing the absence of counterparties within the same financial institutions that wrote CDO's and can't muster a single CDS. The flow of money has stopped, and collateralized debt obligations become illiquid, so you have to go to the discount window and swap treasuries for your paper instead of CDS's.

So the Fed is now your counterparty.

Looking at oil prices, we are seeing a sharp decline like the kind of correction you see in Gold at the end of the seasonal run. This will affect the way debt obligations are passed back and forth as they become increasingly illiquid as they are applied to oil trading. We are already seeing stories in the press about price fixing, but the worst is yet to come.

PMI Gold -

With PMI stock hitting a low not seen since end of '06, I called the company in exasperation.

To my surprise, I was assured that their financing campaign is going well. They believe they will avoid the onerous loan covenants which have plagued juniors (such as requirements to sell production forward)and will have an announcement soon.

PMI is unique for its decision to begin production by "micro-mining" rich veins beneath a previously-mined open-pit in Ghana. This means PMI needs to borrow only a fraction of the sums needed to open a conventional large mine (They will build a small mine and small mill). They then plan to expand production into other veins and into lower grade ore from cash flow and follow-on micro-loans.

PMI has >600K oz M&I in their Kubi deposit, and a total of 700 sq.km. of land, which includes other previously-mined open pits.

disclosure: I have (underwater) stock and warrants in PMI Gold.

general comment: This would seem another dramatic piece of evidence that it is NOT the cost or scarcity of capital which is driving down the stock price of juniors.

Recently, I found downward price trends in quality juniors which do not need access to capital markets: those with major joint ventures with seniors (NG,NAK) and those "project generators" who JV with producers early in resource definition, and have a range of well-financed production partners (AZM,ER,MD,VGQ)

Jock: so what do you think is driving down the price of the juniors?

My frustration keeps building up, as all the trading gains I make elsewhere are eaten away by the steadily declining juniors in my portfolio. I am seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, though: my largest junior investment is in UXG, which has only another $1.45 to fall! :)

2nd_ave: are you still considering buying juniors? There is a rule that says "don't fight the trend," and the current downward trend can persist for years...

DavidV

Thanks TeleStar: I will check it out. Always learning

David V - Why are juniors still trending down?

As a trader friend puts it: how could juniors have trended down while the gold price doubled, and seniors' need to replace reserves increased?

Here are a few likely factors -

1. major institutional investors need liquidity which only seniors and gold/silver ETF's can provide. So, when all-purpose funds move into gold, they move into seniors or ETF's.

2. retail investors drove juniors up in the first half the the decade (in response to the gold price increase). Then, many more juniors were funded than there were good management teams or land packages. My Canadian database now has 498 gold companies. How is the average person to know who's serious, and who's quality?

Gold newsletters and websites disclose that they are directly paid by the juniors they cover. Those few i-bank studies and reviews of juniors cover mostly past and prospective clients. Most retail investors throw up their hands and buy ETF's.

3. Sprott's fund is down >10% this year. If Sprott can't make money in juniors this year, who can? I suspect none of the funds which favor juniors are taking in new funds, and most are suffering redemptions. Redemptions mean more selling pressure.

4. There have been allegations that hedge funds have been going long seniors and short juniors. There is always talk of private placement participants in general selling shares as they rise, and retaining the associated warrants. This puts downward pressure on a juniors stock TWICE (when they sell shares, and when the stocks finally struggle up to the warrent exercise price).

5. In general, insiders, private placement participants, and newsletter writers get their options, warrants and shares early and cheap. They make some noise about the stock, lift the price, and sell into the new strength of OUR buying.

6. Aurelian - which found the largest and best deposit in over a decade (at least 15M oz.) - just accepted an offer valued at about $64/oz. in situ. Comparable previous deals were at at least twice this level. (Political risk in Ecuador, site of their discovery, seems to be on the way down, with a new mining law to be introduced by September). Yet,rather than wait, Aurelian's board accepted what I regard as a "stink bid" from Kinross.

So, can juniors not succeed even by succeeding? If the management of the best new junior in a decade doesn't believe in their ability to persevere and get a fair price for shareholders, who can believe in juniors?

I'd say negative psychology will keep them going down -- until suddenly it doesn't! Remember when everybody has gone negative, and the last seller has sold, reversals are born. Seniors' need to replenish reserves only grows over time. Incentives to acquire juniors increase with the gold price.

Another factor is that seniors are said largely to have let go of their exploration talent, which migrated to the juniors. This gives seniors less ability to grow internally and more need to acquire or JV with juniors in order to grow their resources and reserves.

Perhaps this time for juniors is like the inverse of early 1999, when it was obvious (to me at least) that the Nasdaq had gone bi-polar-crazy. After suffering a major wake-up call upon Russia's default and Long Term Capital Management's collapse, the NAZ was soon off to the races again, for another 15 months it turned out! But suddenly, in Spring of 2000, the NAZ rapidly reversed, and headed WAY in the other direction.

Who knows how long juniors will suffer - until there is a major reversal and rush to the upside? NOBODY! When it finally happens, all the above factors will be forgotten!

One thing is clear. You'll never find a 10 bagger in a senior, or an ETF. But at some point, many quality juniors will go up more than ten times, once tha agony is over! So, if you can stand the pain, now is the time to study, to get positioned with a watchlist and/or "chihuahua" positions in future winners, and to await the turn!

Or, at least, that's how I see it. I hope that helps. I feel your pain!

FWIW, DYODD, there are no certainties, just educated guesses!

moab
This might help:
Yield Spreads, Financials & Gold
http://tinyurl.com/69tkl5

Jock, good comments on juniors. I'm sure you heard the one gold guru who said recently he had worn a groove in his head scratching it trying to figure this one out. Certainly the sentiment is pretty negative so I can't think of anything else to do than accumulate good ones on the weakness. And hope I last long enough to be right. Stuff happens though, like even Minefinders is having a delay with their first pour because of protesters at the mine. But hey, what am I going to do, wait until everything is rosy and the stocks are climbing? That don't work too well either!

2nd

Buy to Open Put 6 Contracts of -OEBUN
Details Filled at $14.00
Buy to Open Put 5 Contracts of -OEBTP
Details Filled at $10.50

david- i consider buying anything that offers a substantial return on investment, and juniors qualify...

from my limited experience/perspective with/on metals/miners (3 years), it's a difficult sector to buy and hold...they seem to attract momentum players when the sector is hot, which leads to some spectacular moves (UXG up 1000% in less than six months from a price of <2 in august 2005, and now it's right back where it started)...when do i plan to buy? it's on the watchlist, and i can't say what the trigger will be...sure as hell wouldn't be selling now...

vinod-

"re vinod- i..would wager that he will be calling trades ahead of us within a few months...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 22, 2008 6:45 PM

instincts don't lie...

For Market
here is a quote

President Ronald Reagan, "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

2nd
I did not follow my own rule which is to wait untill close to sell/buy oex option
and i sold my contract earlier, otherwise would have made a lot.

vinod- you left out the tenth word, "you." then you know it's over...

Jock: On PMI

One thing I discovered in many different fields a single truth: people work towards expectation. PMI is breaking expectation by using new methods to move ahead. Innovation is only rewarded after the fact, and in fact is almost always punished before the fact.

I invested in PMI becuase I liked the tactics they are using, but its a long buy since in the short term they will get punished by being different. Just another consideration in picking sticks which until something exceptional happens is still judged by the standards of everyone else... which means its a negative value due to that difference.

nemo:

I don't know Alex Anatole.

However, I know Dr. Alex Feng who I love dearly and is a wonderful Taoist Master who teaches out of Oakland:

http://tinyurl.com/5fzsj5

Or if you are on the east coast (NYC) then check out Sat Hon :) who also cracks me up and is a master.

http://tinyurl.com/6f75ts

If this part of my post gets reposted my apologies, for some reason The comments haven't been letting me post earlier

i didn't know about that rule, but you're right...i've noticed OEX options players get a little desperate at the close, which probably leads to bad decisions you can take advantage of...

david-

fwiw- twiggs' opinion as of 4am this morning:

"West Texas Intermediate Crude is consolidating above medium-term support at $122/barrel. Continued narrow consolidation above the support level would be a bearish sign, threatening a test of primary support at $100. Recovery above $133 is less likely and would signal the end of the correction."

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

marked contrast to his opinion on july 12:

"West Texas Intermediate Crude made a failed breakout above $146/barrel, but is now consolidating in a narrow range between $143 and $146: a bullish sign. Upward breakout would offer a target of 146+(146-135)=157. Reversal below $135 is unlikely — and would warn of a secondary correction."

http://tinyurl.com/6xpkhm

point is: things change, and fast...

(off topic) how many know much about the composer behind glen campbell's success in the sixties? recommend listening to jimmy webb's CD
"ten easy pieces-" solo piano/vocal renditions of galveston, wichita lineman, by the time i get to phoenix, all i know, macarthur park...

(i first got turned on to webb when he and his wife were touring with the rock band 'america-' i caught a performance in ann arbor in the mid-seventies, later intrigued by the reviewer's comments about "what a waste it [was] for the truly talented webb to be playing piano back-up..."

)

jock - your 8:34pm post. Great reply.

Thank you, Jock, for a good overview of the junior sector. You made a great observation that with such a negativity, fewer and fewer sellers remain in the market and only a catalyst is needed to reverse it. Rob McEwen wrote to me in an e-mail some time ago that he thinks the juniors will start moving up as a group when gold will break its record of $1050 on the way up, which he thinks will happen in the 2nd half of 2008. I think it would be a great catalyst for changing opinion about gold juniors, especially now when there are almost no buyers in the market. Since gold is holding up pretty well in its seasonally weak summer time, EVEN in the face of a sharply declining oil price, I think the chances of it breaking above $1050 in the seasonally strong fall/winter months is pretty good. So now I have a new reason for holding on to my juniors! :) And thank you, 2nd_ave, for confirming this strategy.

I even bought back today at $1.5 the UXG shares I sold at $1.8 last week (1/2 of my hodling), when it seemed to me that UXG is falling off its $2 support to the new support at $1.5. So I am not going down without a fight! :) Let's hope I will not sell too soon when juniors do turn around...

DavidV

Posted by 2nd_ave: "point is: things change, and fast..." What are you implying, 2nd_ave? That the mood can change quickly from being currently negative on oil to being positive once again?

DavidV

2nd - one of Glen Campbell's best was "Gentle on My Mind" by banjo/fiddle player John Hartford.
Hartford appeared on Campbell's tv show until Campbell kicked him off because he was better than Campbell. Perhaps Webb suffered a similar fate.

PAAS - Pan American Silver on the prowl!

Pan American Silver hopes to take advantage of tight credit conditions by seeking out cash-strapped development-stage projects to augment its roster of Latin American silver mines, the company's chief executive said on Friday.

The above from seekingalpha:

http://tinyurl.com/6qpjb3

Excellent new news tab on Finviz

Bill said he doesn't see $800 gold in the future. Adding to that, I think we cannot anticipate $100 oil, either.

The financials short rule has been extended into (thru?) August. Everyone here probably already knows by now...

Good Morning.

One Cara 100 Change to report at this time:

WAG - Banc of America Securities initiates coverage with a BUY.

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Maromatics:
a day late here but hoping you read my sincerest best wishes...
I have been missing you; hence asking about you.
regards
joey

Jock:
have just read your comprehensive and thoughtful "junior miners malaise" post.

well written. unfortunately, no begging to differ here...

I could add a few to your ER,MD, VGQ list and I also in the "boo. hiss Aurelian Bd of Directors club"

regards

joey

regards
joey

Well, does my SKF stunt yesterday qualify for any DENSA trophies? Sheesh!!!

Could be a new DENSA market sector: the CPETF

Chickenpookie, you were warned on SKF, but you said you would just hold because it would come back by Friday to 130ish. I will wait myself to enter that trade, but it is looking good close to 100 maybe...

b0ss - There's no denying I was warned! I accept full credit for the CPETF trade of the week....

A prime example of how to execute a trade using faulty premises.

Sorry chicken!

nemo - Don't feel sorry for me, feel sorry for stupidity. You know the two most abundant elements in this universe are hydrogen and stupidity. Thank you for attempting to warn me, I feel I owe you something, and just knowing bad calls will be challenged gives me a renewed sense of value concerning Bill's blog and the contributors.

So are we finally in agreement that markets are in a major rally mode? :)

There but for the grace of the Gods go I! And they know I've been there.

Moritori te salutamos!

Major Rally, maybe? Still a bear, people will be taking profits quicker.

Volitility, IMHO

I agree the cause starts with a V but it's not Volatility that concerns me its Volume. Yesterday was broad-market, high volume gains. Monday's down action was based on no volume.