Not a sign of strength for the USD as the U.A.E. drops its USD peg...

"The United Arab Emirates dirham will appreciate 5 percent in 2009 as faster inflation in the Gulf state forces the central bank to ditch its 30-year peg to the dollar peg next year, according to CFC Seymour Ltd.

The central bank of the U.A.E. will drop the dollar peg by June of next year, linking the dirham to a basket of currencies, including the dollar and the euro, Hong Kong-based currency analyst Carol Chan said in a phone interview yesterday. The dirham will rise to 3.49 to the dollar from its peg rate of 3.6725 today, said Chan.

Inflation in the second-largest Arab economy accelerated to 11.1 percent in 2007 from 9.3 percent in 2006 as rent surged while the weaker dollar and higher global food prices made imports more expensive. With monetary policy tied to the U.S., the U.A.E. has put price caps on basic foods and building materials in an attempt to control prices."

http://tinyurl.com/6koday

vinod/craig: eyeing FXP, GOOG, AAPL, TBT this morning...but to be honest, would be just as happy to stay in cash today...i think the close will be a better play than the open..

b0ss- congrats on holding onto your OEBTP...it should pay off this morning...

Re: Executives & public statements. Vanity Fair had that major piece on the fall of Bear Stearns, and there were several informative paragraphs (here, on pgs. 3 & 4 http://tinyurl.com/5jw5b2)
on Greenberg / Schwarz's dealings with press releases / CNBC interviews during BSC's fall. What can they do? Especially in as extreme a situation as that was.

When the beach suddenly extends into the ocean as the tsunami approaches, and you see that skyscraper-high wall of water accelerate towards you... what can you do?

As for non catastrophes as Bill mentioned, however, sub-conscious and uncontrollable statements that result in share price movements: I can't see how that could be controlled...

[Bill Cara note: Thanks Fatty. I was not thinking "control" -- merely investigating the subject so that we all better understand it. One of the things people here have learned from me is reflected in my statement that people in high places put their pants on same as you or me. In other words, we're talking about people--cousins, next door neighbors, partners, etc. Just because somebody has achieved a position of significant power doesn't mean to say they don't have biases, weaknesses, and so forth.

As an aside, if you happen to have watched the Maria Bartiromo CNBC interview yesterday of Treasury Secretary Paulson, you really have to wonder how this man became so powerful.

At the end of the day, it's the power to control others -- not personal capabilities and performance -- that has sent executive compensation soaring. Somebody this week commented to me that I could sell refrigerators to Eskimos, and my response was on what grounds. What would that do for social equity? Because I happen to think like this, the financial media tried to brand me as eccentric. In fact, I am no different than most.

What is important, when it comes to capital markets, is to understand the drivers, and these happen often to be the most influential CEO's, and that means we need to understand these people and what makes them tick. That doesn't mean to say that their actions should be controlled.]

You know things are bad at Merrill Lynch when ... they curtail the use of private jets for senior executives.

Paulson making a speech this morning, and right on cue gold was taken down.

regarding "front running", i may not be thinking of it in the terms you are suggesting Bill, but imho, i think its a matter of Public Relations/Investor Relations experts spoiling the broth; where what is said is the salient business activity over what is done.

putting lipstick on the corporate pig is just a topical metaphor to the deeper issue: at what point in space do corporate earnings drive price over the words of a CEO, an industry analyst or insider?

as IR firms become increasingly savy at investor psychology the line between reality and perception is increasingly blurred. this occurs not just in the traditional manner where a CEO admits to weak earnings but finishes on a high-note that the future looks bright. the current climate allows for CEO's in appealing lighting and carefully applied make-up with colour coordinated power-ties and single breasted suits to read off carefully constructed speeches while Mass Media outlets play their part flashing speaking points on the bottom news reel...

its nothing new accept that the process has been refined into an art-form of Military Special Forces level escape and evasion capability.

sorry im rambling.... the markets havent even opened for the day...

[Bill Cara note: Re: "...at what point in space do corporate earnings drive price over the words of a CEO, an industry analyst or insider?"

Very good. I'd say that at times of Bear market rallies, earnings (or lack thereof) take second fiddle to the other.]

Bought SNDK 14.30 pre-mkt.

Cara 100 Update:

Downgrades:

DNA - to Neutral @ Piper Jaffray
SNDK - to Hold @ Needham

Target Price Lowered:

SNDK - from $32 to $23 @ Lazard Capital

Vodafone down 14% in todays trading on LSE after it warned over its sale outlook, that seemed to knock confidence in the footsie this morning.

Vodafone sales particularly bad in Spain,Ericsson down too and knock on effect on Cara 100 member TEF Teleonica of Spain down 7%.

Question for anyone: Why is it so often that the RSI will peak before the price and start moving down? If the momentum is slowing down, what is taking the price higher? This has been bugging me. Thanks

[Bill Cara note: Denny, toss a ball in the air. Before it reaches its maximum height, the tragectory/momentum slows. Just because traders are becoming less confident that the price will move higher doesn't mean to say it will not.]

scaling into a position in TTM at 9.71...

Momentum may be slowing down, but it's still positive, so you can still have upward movement, just with less buying interest then the previous time periods?

You take your feet off the gas pedal and the car coasts, slowing down, but still moving fwd...

Eh, just a guess.

Denny, you have the right idea. The RSI calculates the relative strength of price movements. As a trend gets long in the tooth, the RSI tends to peak ahead of a price reversal. That is why so many traders like to use it as a leading indicator.

sold sndk 14

scaling into SNDK at 13.87...

I'm sorry but, it's not easy for me to detect when I'm being lied to. But I know that when I am, it is usually an attempt to deceive me. This is why, when I do discover and confirm a lie, I don't easily forget about it.

GM's treatment of retirees by reducing benefits - a lie, IMO. How innovative, can't wait for the encore.

Immelt's rosey announcement just prior to bad news - a lie, IMO. Especially revealing, coming from the likes of GE.

These are not passive lies, these are active lies - attempts to pick the pockets of the many. It won't be an easy task to regain my confidence. Hopefully, for these companies, I am the exception to the rule.

"scaling into a position in TTM at 9.71..."

LOL. Weren't you the guy who just said you would wait for the close? ;)

The sell off in SNDK is just brutal. Lessmore, I hope you had a tight stop.

What a fugly market. I've all but given up on using the ultra shorts as a hedge. Who needs the risk amidst so much volatility?

Oh, mercy. SNDK down > 25% from yesterday's close.

Good luck, 2nd. But then again, you rarely need my good wishes to make a good trade.

Cara 100 Update (Final):

DNA - Target Price Raised from $84 to $95 @ RBC

SNDK- adding at 13.43..

"Weren't you the guy who just said you would wait for the close? ;)"

the ability to change one's mind is critical for a trader- there are no 'commitments' in this game...;)

stink bids on yhoo, msft, sndk...

If you really want to puke you have to read this. Former congressman Richard Baker and Short Seller James Chanos lobbied the SEC to allow the continuation of naked shorting because the alternative is too costly to their business. These guys even admit that they naked short today as part of a trade strategy (if you read between the lines)

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/341

[Bill Cara note: There is nothing wrong with the practice of naked shorting; but if the trade fails to settle because one of the parties will not or cannot deliver borrowed stock, the offending party should be automatically flagged by the broker-dealer and reports sent automatically to the SEC. Too many flags should result in the SEC automatically suspending the trading privileges of the offenders. The problem is that the same offending accounts and broker-dealers are behind what has become a fraud against the market. Where are the cops?]

GOOG vs SNDK. I debated whether to buy GOOG premarket @ 461 or SNDK premarket @ 14.30. I made the wrong choice. It cost me a mere couple hundred to learn. I just have to figure out what the lesson was.

For you, 2nd, my friend. ;)

"Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes."

- Walt Whitman, 1870

I'm watching the hourly chart on SLW. Getting sold off today with everything else.

Probably not anytime soon, here, but I'm looking forward to a entry point as any strength in the dollar is going to be fleeting.

EPI- scaling in at 19.30...

SNDK- to 60% at 13.15...

wow- SKF sold off fast...

Buy 200 Shares of IBN
Filled at $30.049
Buy 100 Shares of SNDK
Filled at $13.40

Sell 200 Shares of SMN
Filled at $33.7046
Sell 200 Shares of DUG
Filled at $33.7405

2nd/Craig
will wait for GOOG/AAPL/FXP/TBT

bear trap? bull trap?

Sell 100 Shares of IBN
Details Filled at $31.361

Bull trap until:
Dow clears 11,500
SPX clears 1263
XLF clears 21.1
$BKX clears 62

Buy 200 Shares of SKF
Filled at $140.18

Sell 200 Shares of SKF
Filled at $141.3605 now Back to work will see you after close

Dear MOAB,

you often cite TICK and TRIN. Is there any online source where one can see the live data for free.

Obviously the uptick rule needs to be re-instated.

http://tinyurl.com/63etz4

Raising stop limits for longs. Might exit market today.

Follow-up on prior put sales.

Had GE "put" to me yesterday at cost basis of 28.20.

Had TSO "put" to me at cost basis @18.90-18.95

Maybe a little early on both and will monitor.

Gold has been in one hell of a downtrend this morning...

WM reports today, sitting close $5. $5 Straddle requires a 30% move, quite high, but likely doable given the volatility. If it misses or beats it may move violently.

Amazing how Gold and oil fall on cue just when the market is stalling.

Grabbed some BAC @ 28.68.

bot AMX 200 @ 48.89

IT jobs will drop in 2009

IT staff jobs are at increasing risk -- both for contractors and in-house workers -- according to a survey of top CIOs by Goldman Sachs & Co. released last week. Global services companies will also feel the pinch because of the slowing economy.

http://tinyurl.com/5mfp25

2nd
here is the news
Manmohan Singh wins confidence vote

2nd
and look at IBN

Everything I know is wrong.

WB up 6%.

I should have known.....all they did was lose 9 billion dollars and cut the dividend. That's not too bad, eh?

BH, I am thinking the same. $25B for FMN & FRE, $8.9B and my SKF is in the red?

good call, vinod-> EPI and TTM taking off on the news also...

Posted this on skype--in reference to Si02 posting reference financials--"There is no logic."

The logic is the Fed is sending a message that financials will be supported. No naked short selling, Fed window loans, speeches and the PPT. Unless someone craters when reporting overwhelming losses, it should slowly rise; but, to where and how long????

Just my 2 cents.

airlines!

Anyone here buying TXN instead of SNDK for a trade or L/T? I realize SNDK is in the Cara 100 while TXN is not, however TXN appears to have a solid balance sheet with little or no L/T debt.

UAUA back over 10 soon? i don't know, but taking a little at 7.35...

I don't think you are going to get the TICK and TRIN data live for free, but stockcharts has it. It is most useful in my opinion for daytrading as you can judge the strength and legitimacy of moves, like last Tuesday when them markets lost 2% in an hour, the TRIN was 0.7, which meant volume was flowing to stocks that were advancing, so the selloff was suspect.

UAUA- out at 7.98...

Once again, Kaimu is right. Gold usually gets hit on a Tuesday.

On 2nd thought, maybe the straddle on WM should be calls in case it beats, and also calls in case it misses. :-)

Internet currency firm pleads guilty to money laundering.
E-Gold, an Internet-based payment service, and three owners have pleaded guilty to criminal charges related to money laundering, the U.S. Department of Justice said Monday
http://tinyurl.com/6ynmd9

This may help in determining where to keep your money in a USA bank. I got it from Newton's site.

http://tinyurl.com/5fqt2t

Vinod, nice call on India.

out of EPI at 19.74, out of TTM at 10.01...

out of SNDK at 13.65...

back to 100% cash...

MOAB

thank you,I have noticed your comments last Tuesday and it seems liek a very valuable tool to validate market moves. Here is the link to the stockcharts services for anyone who is interested. I guess one would need to buy the ExtraRT, to get real time data.
http://stockcharts.com/corp/membership/services.html

Out of BAC @ 30.06

Seamus - nice entry on BAC. 5-min STO(21,3) suggests time to exit is now @ 30.05. Not advice. DYODD.

By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

Exhorbitant Salaries

WASHINGTON -- Democrats and Republicans queasy about a federal rescue of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are coalescing around the idea of letting the government slap limits on the multimillion-dollar pay packages of their executives.

THE PEOPLE should have the say here, since we have the priveledge of opening our wallets to rescue the banking sector. Bet you didn't think you were so important.

Now do you believe these companies will begin to will treat us like we're important?

Very large trade in XLF August calls today.

Eric Janszen says that he has been awaiting the financial crisis for ten years and has been waiting for someone to say that the financial system is fundamentally sound, as that will be the indication that the s**t is about the hit the fan. Well, Paulson has started using that phrase:

http://tinyurl.com/62u2s6

[Bill Cara note: Agreed, which is why I started promoting Michael Panzner's books in 2004. An experienced Wall Street sales person, Michael was seeing what I was. It's not pretty for the US financial system, and Paulson et al are desperate to save it. But that doesn't mean there will be no opportunities elsewhere.

My old firm Canaccord, for instance, issued this report today: "Since our last Strategy Note, we increased our holdings in Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX), Husky Energy Inc. (HSE : TSX), Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO : TSX), Suncor Energy Inc. (SU : TSX), Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM : TSX), Nexen Inc. (NXY : TSX), Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM : TSX), Potash Corp. (POT : TSX) and CAE Inc. (CAE : TSX), while reducing our positions in Toronto-Dominion (TD : TSX), Royal Bank of Canada (RY : TSX) and Enbridge Inc. (ENB : TSX)." I won't comment about CAE or Enbridge (neutral), but the rest are companies I like and stocks I like at a price.]

Re: TICK & TRIN

FWIW, don’t know about other brokers, but Schwab provides Tick in their settings tab.

Also, by entering $TRIN, you can obtain the TRIN number & chart.

good article w/ William Poole

www.foreignpolicy.com

Seven Questions: How Bad Will It Get?
July 2008

When William Poole warned in 2003 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lacked the capital to weather a financial storm, his advice went unheeded. Five years later, the outspoken former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is far too polite to say “I told you so,” but he does have a message for the Fed: Wait too long to tackle inflation, and you’ll face an even worse recession in the years to come.

Foreign Policy: What’s your diagnosis of what happened to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

William Poole: First of all, they had too little capital to withstand adverse circumstances. And the adverse circumstances were the severe downturn in housing, the decline in house prices, and the rising default rate on mortgages. I don’t know of anyone who early enough was saying that there would be a major national decline in house prices, so I can’t hold them to that standard, but I can hold them to a standard of holding adequate capital to be able to withstand unforeseen circumstances. That’s what capital is for.

FP: In 2003, you called for the government to eliminate its implied guarantee for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Do you feel that Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman at the time, didn’t listen to you?

WP: No. I never had any inkling that he disagreed with what I was saying. Greenspan was pretty much out in front also, saying we should try to scale back these companies and the implied guarantee—make them fully private companies so they’d be subject to market discipline. If Greenspan thought that I was way off base, he would have talked to me about it or had a staff member talk to me about it. That, I can attest, did not happen.

FP: Now, there has obviously been some turmoil in the banking sector. IndyMac, a regional California bank, collapsed last week. Analysts are wondering where the line is in terms of what banks are considered “too big to fail.” Where would you draw that line?

WP: I like the way that Greenspan used to put it and probably still does put it, that no firm should be too big to fail. Some might be too big to liquidate quickly and may require some support until they can be wound down, but there should be no firm too big to fail. We don’t know yet what the nature of the bailout of Fannie and Freddie is going to be, but I believe the plan would be to pay off at par all of the regular obligations. They are being turned into full faith and credit obligations of the United States government.

FP: So, what happens now?

WP: Here’s an analogy I like to use. In a formal bankruptcy, the court appoints a receiver. The receiver’s job is to, in some cases, reorganize a firm’s capital structure. Sometimes, the shareholders get wiped out and the bondholders become shareholders. Sometimes a company is liquidated and the creditors are paid according to certain legal rules. Depending on how particular credits are set up, a receiver’s job is to keep the company going long enough to obtain the maximum possible benefit for the creditors as a whole. In some cases, the company might be shut down quickly.

So that’s the analogy, and now the secretary of the Treasury is de facto in that position. But he’s operating under no established law. For the most part, everything that is now done to deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to reorganize them financially or scale them back, is done now by negotiation between the secretary of the Treasury, Congress, and the companies. The companies have what you might call a “well-oiled political machine.” They have many members of Congress they talk to regularly who will represent their interests in this negotiation.

FP: NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, who has been sounding the alarm for quite a while, told Bloomberg News that we’re seeing the worst U.S. financial crisis since the Great Depression.

WP: I think that’s right, but let’s go back and revisit the Great Depression for a moment. In 1932, the economy was spiraling down and there were large numbers of bank failures. Eventually, in early 1933, various states started to declare banking holidays. They closed the banks and allowed them to continue to exist, but the depositors were not permitted to take any money out. They shut the doors.

When Franklin Roosevelt took office, he declared a national banking holiday. All the banks were closed, including the Federal Reserve banks. There was a total and complete collapse of the banking system, and the economy that had functioned on credit and deposits was suddenly left to function on hand-to-hand currency. We aren’t anywhere close to that and we won’t get close to that because of ample Federal Reserve resources and also intellectual understanding that would not permit that to happen.

FP: How bad will it get, then?

WP: We are going to have failures of large numbers of firms, financial firms in particular. A traditional important piece of business for community banks and regional banks are loans to real estate developers and builders. And now that some of those are going into default, it’s leading to failures of smaller commercial banks, and the ones that were the most heavily involved in real estate are the ones at the greatest risk. The longer these things go, the greater the depletion of capital. In time, the losses accumulate and exhaust capital and the firm fails, so the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation] shuts it down. It looks like there’s more of that to come, because there is no sign of a revival in home-building.

FP: Meanwhile, consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate in 17 years. Does that mean the Fed is running out of tools to keep growth going?

WP: All the financial turmoil that we’ve just been talking about—the tightening of credit, the fact that so many banks have impaired capital—that’s putting downward pressure on the economy, and the big increase in fuel prices is also putting downward pressure on real activity. You see that in transportation, the airlines, the auto industry—anything that has a big fuel cost. There is a growing amount of unemployment in those sectors, and the Federal Reserve is trying to support economic activity by holding the federal funds rate—the interest rate—at its current level. If the downturn in employment becomes much more severe, the Fed might even cut rates.

Now, to me, the inflation problem is actually part of what is depressing economic activity, because the generalized inflation that I think we have underway—although it’s not showing up in core inflation and wages just yet—is showing up in the depreciating dollar, and the depreciating dollar directly feeds through to increased energy prices and food prices. So, the depreciation itself is leading to depressed economic activity.

Moreover, if the inflation really starts to go into wages and into the core—the non-energy, non-food part—of the price indices, it will probably develop a fair amount of momentum and the Federal Reserve is not going to be able to reverse it even with a tighter monetary policy for probably a year or two, maybe even three. If the policy is too expansionary too long and we end up with a real inflation problem, all we’re doing is trading a bigger recession later for a smaller recession now./

William Poole is the recently retired president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Ryder (R) looks like it might respect it's downtrend of lower highs despite popping almost 4% today on no news. Guess all boats are rising in transports on lower oil.

Adding to puts here...

impact of housing crises

Bill Moyers

http://tinyurl.com/64kj6j

2nd ave
Good entry point on TTM. I paid up a bit more yesterday but this is very very oversold

AMX under water - 47.38

MRK - 31.86

52 wks range 64-34

PE 9.7. yield 4.76%

thinking of starting a small position here

ALOHA !!

dr. cosa ... None of these guys mention that we have "embedded super-inflation" that will last for years. Why? The second that George Bush took it upon himself to design the invasion of Afghanistan and then Iraq the Genie was out of the bottle. To me that marked the official approval of the precious metal/commodity bull market. That signaled that "real wealth" was IN and "false wealth" was OUT! Real wealth is hard assets. A mortgage is "false wealth", so do not get confused. If you own any "paper" assets other than "real-money-in-the-ground"(miners and juniors0paper then you own essentially a "promise" backed by risk-enhanced leveraged financial counterparties(includes GLD /SLV).

How is it Bush or any President, Kennedy back in the early 1960's or FDR back in the late 1930's can afford to go to War. In the case of Iraq there was virtually no debate or public discourse as to going to War ... WW3!

READ ON:
War and Inflation
Daily Article by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. | Posted on 6/9/2008

This talk was delivered at the Future of Freedom Foundation's conference on "Restoring the Republic: Foreign Policy and Civil Liberties," on June 6, 2008, in Reston, Virginia.

The US central bank, called the Federal Reserve, was created in 1913. No one promoted this institution with the slogan that it would make wars more likely and guarantee that nearly half a million Americans will die in battle in foreign lands, along with millions of foreign soldiers and civilians.

No one pointed out that this institution would permit Americans to fund, without taxes, the destruction of cities abroad and overthrow governments at will. No one said that the central bank would make it possible for the United States to be at large-scale war in one of every four years for a full century. It was never pointed out that this institution would make it possible for the US government to establish a global empire that would make imperial Rome and Britain look benign by comparison.

You can line up 100 professional war historians and political scientists to talk about the 20th century, and not one is likely to mention the role of the Fed in funding US militarism. And yet it is true: the Fed is the institution that has created the money to fund the wars. In this role, it has solved a major problem that the state has confronted for all of human history. A state without money or a state that must tax its citizens to raise money for its wars is necessarily limited in its imperial ambitions. Keep in mind that this is only a problem for the state. It is not a problem for the people. The inability of the state to fund its unlimited ambitions is worth more for the people than every kind of legal check and balance. It is more valuable than all the constitutions every devised.

The state has no wealth that is its own. It is not a profitable enterprise. Everything it possesses it must take from society in a zero-sum game. That usually means taxes, but taxes annoy people. They can destabilize the state and threaten its legitimacy. They inspire anger, revolt, and even revolution. Rather than risk that result, the state from the Middle Ages to the dawn of the central-banking age was somewhat cautious in its global ambitions simply because it was cautious in its need to steal openly and directly from the people in order to pay its bills.

To be sure, it doesn't require a central bank for a state to choose inflation over taxes as a means of funding itself. All it really requires is a monopoly on the production of money. Once acquired, the monopoly on money production leads to a systematic process of depreciating the currency, whether by coin clipping or debasement or the introduction of paper money, which can then be printed without limit. The central bank assists in this process in a critical sense: it cartelizes the banking system, the essential conduit by which money is lent to the public and to the government itself. The banking system thereby becomes a primary funding agency to the state, and, in exchange for its services, the banking system is guaranteed against insolvency and business failure as it profits from inflation. If the goal of the state is the complete monopolization of money under an infinitely flexible paper-money system, there is no better path for the state than the creation of a central bank. This is the greatest achievement for the victory of power over liberty.(more)

Link: www.mises.org

If you look at the US FED in simple economic/market terms of raising rates or bailing out banks then you have blinders on! The US FED needs to be eliminated for many more reasons, but "INSTANT WAR" is one of the most important reasons to eliminate the US FED.

BIG GOVERNMENT has too much power ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!

ALOHA !!

More on WAR AND INFLATION ...

"In the entire run-up to war, George Bush just assumed as a matter of policy that it was his decision alone whether to invade Iraq. The objections by Ron Paul and some other members of Congress and vast numbers of the American population were reduced to little more than white noise in the background. Imagine if he had to raise the money for the war through taxes. It never would have happened. But he didn't have to. He knew the money would be there. So despite a $200 billion deficit, a $9 trillion debt, $5 trillion in outstanding debt instruments held by the public, a federal budget of $3 trillion, and falling tax receipts in 2001, Bush contemplated a war that has cost $525 billion dollars — or $4,681 per household. Imagine if he had gone to the American people to request that. What would have happened? I think we know the answer to that question. And those are government figures; the actual cost of this war will be far higher — perhaps $20,000 per household."

This is why I always say that a fiat monetary system is based on ego ... on human emotions. That is the human condition. None of these guys in Washington DC spend an entire lifetime building up power and influence and then when they attain the highest power status in the World decide not to "use it"! That has never happened in all of human history, especially now!

We cannot afford a monetary system based on the human condition ... period! This is why it does not matter who occupies the White House next, so long as our money is fiat based. It does not matter how many crooks the SEC imprisons and it does not matter how many naked shorts exist.

This is why I predict "many fortunes will be lost trading the markets successfully"!

IT'S THE MONEY STUPID!

ALOHA !!

Naturally when I state "IT'S THE MONEY STUPID" I am not calling people here stupid. In case some of you do not know that was a take-off on a saying made popular during a Clinton era presidential campaign ... "It's the economy Stupid!" Of course its not the ECONOMY STUPID ... it never was and still isn't. Maybe Forrest Gump can shed some light ... "Stupid Is As Stupid Does"!

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!

I was short Ryder a month ago. The patterns it makes are confusing and I took a small profit to close it out rather than try to figure it out. Now you have defined risk at prior highs and a weekly downtrend.

Anyone looking at AGO ?

Has anyone else been tracking the India funds I mentioned on July 7-8? INP(+12.8%), IFN(+12.3%), PIN (+8.5%). Like a coward I only took a half-position in INP at the open on the 8th, and like a greedy-pig I don't know whether to pull out at this time.

I covered my AGO short this morning and went long. Volume is coming on the up spikes. It should mean revert over the next couple days.

Kaimu,

Since Ron Paul is not on the ballot and in my state of Tennessee write-ins are tossed in the wastebasket I've decided to vote for the presidential candidate to favors a strong hard currency: No one. I plan to leave the presidential choice blank as my way of rejecting the choices I'm given.

I wonder what might happen if a majority of the American public voted for no one?

"to" should be "who" in my previous posting.

Telestar3d-

Thanks for the report link.

AGO -

Thanks Moab for the reply.

I noticed that the stock has strong up volume whenever it was down. I got stopped out when it turn down from 10.

With price down near 50% on a rating review, it'll probably trade up when someone comes out defend it. MBIA reports on Thursday.

I have been trading UXG for the past year, gradually lowering my cost basis from the initial purchase at $6+. Most of my trades have been subject to the wash sale rule, and so it turned out that out of the 7500 shares I have now, the next 3000 shares I sell will have the cost basis of about $6! So I figured that I will sell 3000 shares now and will hold off on buying UXG for a month, so as to actually take that loss for tax purposes. In 2007 I had to pay taxes as if I made twice as much in the market than I actually did because of the unrealized losses on GROW, UXG and other junior miners. I don't want the same thing to happen in 2008, and so I sold all my GROW at $15 and $18 during its recent run-up, and I am selling a part of my UXG now. If this is the cycle bottom for UXG, I'll make a lot of money on the remaining 4500 shares. And if it isn't (I think UXG is falling to a new trading range of around $1.5), I'll gladly buy these 3000 shares cheaper in a month (or when oil/gold stops falling). Right now, my portfolio is up relative to the magic level around which it was oscillating since October, and so I'll practice marking my portfolio to market and not worrying about the fact that I am taking losses on my UXG and GROW sales.

DavidV

Oldgoat - I want you to know, I've been adjusting my sell limits upward - now within 6% of basis on a majority of my long positions.

Buy to Open Put 10 Contracts of -OEBUN
Filled at $14.80

OEBUN looks like a bad trade?
market is all bout oil

vinod- i've played NWA/DAL/UAUA/CAL more times than i can count today...not planning to hold overnight, of course...

looking at SKF for a bounce?

SKF, XLF -

XLF has just filled a gap on 6/25 pushing toward MA50. It has rebounded more than 30% fro Jul low. Back in January, XLF retraced ~23% before it turns down. So, my guess is it's about time. IF XLF/SPX turns, so will SKF.

2nd
yes looks like SKF may bounce
good for your airlines trade

what I expected in morning (down 150) point
and what I see is hard to believe

It looked to me like people were accumulating AGO intraday and then slamming it down so they could buy some more, hence the volume on the upside. Once it got past the 10.30 high of the day it was off to the races.

Bonds have really gotten hit since the Fannie and Freddie bailout was conceived. They are playing with fire here.

Out of UYG - Mr. Toad's rild ride running out of gas! Picking up SKF.

300 shares of SKF @ $122

Waiting on inventory of oil tomorrow...

Quick link directly to kitco's intraday gold spot price chart:
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
Still have to refresh manually, but it's quick.

Spot gold now at new intraday low 943.60

ALOHA !!

Everyone is looking for "bottoms"! The bottom of the housing market, the stock market bottom ... in a fiat monetary system there is no "bottom" except default! Its all based on DEBT ... We are the World Reserve Fiat Currency! In other words the USA is the KING OF DEBT! LA DEUDA ETERNA ...

The "C" WORD is up for grabs!

Kaimu/ Dr.Cosa - How does CEF.A compare to GLD etc. in terms of risk associated with the paper "promise".... is it any better?

stv

Wachovia reports loss of $8.9 billion, stock up 25%. Gotta love the way the market works!

Sold out most of the OSTK trade from yesterday (kept a tad)

Managed to get a tiny bit of UYG shorted at the close at $22.83! Now wishing I'd sold a bit more short

Also bought Aug 14 Calls on AUY for $.65

unbelievable finishes for UAUA and FRE...

JesseSLC- that's right, UAUA reports 2B+ in losses, stock goes up 68%...the power of short-covering is phenomenal...

Didn't get the SKF

If SKF hits 115 - 116, I'm in.

CP- taking hedged positions after-hours:

SKF at 121.29
back into TSO/SNDK at 17 and change/13 and change...

Now i'm wondering if this financial short squeeze rally will continue....

We might find our bottom with Kaimu's Ray-O-Vac...

El caminos la duerdo

So, the markets are in a confirmed rally now, right?

Looks like the post-earnings WAMU kool-aid reception is winding down pretty early this evening.....

This is clearly a short covering rally as non-financials like techs are getting killed on earnings misses. Even Amex was killed today, so perhaps there weren't many shorts in it.

The trading in Wachovia was really something. 40% swing from open to close.

moab: I beg to differ. In the Amex alone (since you mentioned it), Health Care +1.38%, Consumer Staples +1.76%, Consumer Discretionary +2.66%, Industrials +1.22%, Financial +8.39%. On the downside, Technology -0.54% (hardly killed), Utilities -0.33%, and Energy -3.22%(the rally driver).

Anyway, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dows all up big on high volume today. In my mind, this finally confirms the rallying which began last week.

After hours WaMu was down 5%, then up 6% and now down 4%. Efficient capital markets at work!

Wonder what effect Russian Oil firms moving into Venezuela will have? Chavez is inviting them in, so I'm hearing...

This rally is old. I'd bet against it lasting another day. This is not a bull market. This is a bear market. This a bear market rally and it is close to running its course if it has not done so alread.

I agree, lessmore. Nevertheless it was also a Bear Market between mid-march and mid-may and the S&P 500 rallied 15%.

lessmore, I should have said "I agree that this is a Bear Market". :)

OldGoat - Kitco also offers Kcast. This puts a streaming quote on your task bar. I've been using this for a few months - no problems until Yahoo put a streamer on the financial section, then Kcast siezed and my graphics are hosed.

Since my machine is a real dinosaur, I can't complain. I haven't used Yahoo much since though.

http://kcast.kitco.com/

To Bear vs Bull discussion... without establishing the time frame we are looking at there won't be an asnwer. Yearly vs monthly, vs weekly, vs daily vs intraday - you'll have different answers to this question. Pick a chart, draw simple lines through tops and bottoms (maybe exclude some extreme spikes discrading them as flukes, this part of deciding what matters and what doesn't is more of an art than science, and can be quite subgjective), and you'll get your answer. Many make a mistake of deriving their conclusion about primary trend from one timeframe while trading in another, usually shorter one. As a result they get cauight in strong "countertrend" moves. I put it in quotes because in such case it's not actually contertrend, it IS a trend - in the timeframe they picked for their entry.

The trouble I have with thinking this rally will immediately continue is that the rally began with recent topping action in oil/coal/natgas/ag. The toppish action seems to have incited the idea that financials are oversold (perhaps the mortgage holders ability to repay has been improved as commodities prices have fallen). In any case, "oversold" financials have been the leaders.

So the questions to ask are:

How much more downward action will we see in oil/commodities?

Will this downward action in commodities actually translate to improved consumer environment? stabilization in housing market (and thus consumer health)?

Will gas prices at the pump actually fall or will the savings be consumed by refiners,etc, leaving the gas consumer no better off?

It is my experience that every rally bear market or bull must have its leading sectors. If there is nothing but financials to "lead" this bear market rally, it may be better to just observe the index strength while waiting for better opportunities to buy commodities and (perhaps) short financials.

If you are not in the market for TRADING right now, what is the impetus to jump into a rally being led by financial companies and airline stocks?

Colin Twiggs posted a beauty of a gold chart in his email today, I don't know how to link to it, but if you can, look at it. Looks to me like we are headed to $1030, our old highs, by September/October. FWIW, just an opinion, I'm not a CMT, although I will begin studying for the CFA in September, any thoughts?
my mood follows my juniors (my shirt), it's been so hard to decouple the two.

I see people are buying a lot of SKF today. I also remember that people started scaling into SKF at the end of March. Why hurry? We have just had 2 months of a straight decline -- don't you think the rebound rally should last for at least several weeks? Bill is saying 4-6 weeks. Why play counter-trend on SKF now? I think we might be past the midpoint of this rally ONLY if oil doesn't fall much from these levels. However, if they take down the price of oil to $100, which is what Bill is expecting, I think DOW will reach well above 12000. So unless you are a skillful daytrader, why try to catch the bottom in the oil decline? I was punished for trying to catch the top in oil's rise, as my July USO puts have expired last week (luckily, I bought very few of them). Once I saw oil collapsing to $130, Alaska being open for drilling and Congress ready to pass new laws limiting the size of futures positions in the oil market, I figured the oil rise is over, and loaded up on UAUA at $4.3 and sold today at $7.4 (a bit early, but I am not a daytrader, so I took profit when I saw it). One of Dennis Gartman's rules is: "Be like a wise mercenary soldier -- always fight on the winning side." Right now the winning side is market up, oil down. Since we are in a bear market, I probably will not be opening new long positions, but I will until I see a handsome profit on my current longs (or the oil price turning up again) before closing them.

If anybody has a different line of reasoning, I will gladly and thoughtfully read about it.

DavidV

ALOHA !!

More USA country risk for miners and junior explorers with projects based in the USA. I still believe Western Australia has the best country risk, even with some temporary power problems.

Anyone here follow the Hard Rock And Reclamation Act of 2007?

READ ON:
On 1 November, 2007, the Hard Rock Mining and Reclamation Act was passed in the USA. This Act will cause a number of elementary changes in the American mining industry. Among other things, a 4% royalty tax on existing production and an 8% tax on new exploration projects were introduced. On top of that, additional environmental standards (applicable to existing projects) were adopted. The substantial costs of said standards would call into question the profitability of numerous projects. The proposed alterations will have to be passed by the Congress first, so there is still room for modifications. However, the Act should have severe effects on the US mining industry in any case. It would drastically increase production costs, make things even more difficult for new projects, put a lid on exploration projects and
eventually decrease US mining output.

ALOHA !!

stvh ... "How does CEF.A compare to GLD etc. in terms of risk associated with the paper "promise".... is it any better?"

In every instance where you are trading physical for paper you must examine closely the counterparty you are dealing with. Who is storing your gold or silver and where is it? Can you verify your holdings? How do you know your stored gold or silver is safe?

I believe CEF is better than GLD and SLV since assets are not held in "custody" by a known bullion bank, like JP Morgan, who also has a vested interest in selling or leveraging. To my knowledge CEF and its vault in Canada is the only location of their vault and there are no other custodial banks or alternate vault locations in the middle.

I still believe the Perth Mint is the best choice in terms of country risk and insurance. I will take an operating mint over just a storage vault any day. It comes down to the supply issue.

BillySundance: while I was composing my comment at 6:09pm, you posted yours at 5:55pm, and so I didn't get a change to read it. To answer your question about the reason for this rally, I think that many people began suspecting that what started as a trouble with financials/housing, will turn into a broad recession, and a nasty one. High oil prices have magnified this fear manyfold. So a drop off in oil is raising a general confidence in the economy (and reducing the fears of hyper inflation, which is even worse than an economic slowdown). I think some companies are still lagging in this rally because people are still afraid that the drop off in oil is temporary. Besides, companies are issuing a negative forward guidance by projecting the past into the future. If the future hold declining oil prices, then people will soon realize that such projections are not accurate, and the laggards will zoom. It is all about oil now, IMHO.

DavidV

Billysundance said: "If you are not in the market for TRADING right now, what is the impetus to jump into a rally being led by financial companies and airline stocks?"

Might I venture to say that because a lot of very good companies have been needlessly beaten down in this Bear Market (which began in Jul-Aug 2007, Vadym :) ) and now stand at very attractive prices. I have no idea how long this rally (if we agree it is one) will last, maybe a day more, maybe 3 months, but if it's a rally then I want to close my shorts and open long positions in these great companies (and they are NOT just banks and airlines).
Furthermore, how do you all envision the next long-term bull market beginning? It will HAVE to be when the financials rally and oil slows. So who knows, maybe this rally is out of the ultimate bottom. Maybe not.

ALOHA!!

GROUND REPORT
I have to say the United States Of America is not even close to being the Home Of The Free and the Brave that it once was. Everything is getting to be so manipulated and interventionism is taking its toll on the "C WORD"!

If I didn't know better I would swear that the US government and the State Of Hawaii is doing its best to drive me and every other small business into bankruptcy! The big US Banks and US Corporations gets all the aid in the World, yet the small businesses and US Taxpayers get little to no attention, yet it us who pay most of this country's taxes. How did that happen?

Today for instance on my FEDEX bill in very fine print is this ... "FedEx fuel surcharges are based on 32.5% of total shipping costs..." WOW ... 32.5% is a LOT!!!! Okay, US government and Hawaii raise taxes on me ... PLEASE-E-E-E!!!! That will solve all our problems and pretty soon we'll all be out of work and wait at home twiddling our thumbs for our welfare checks and food stamp card! I see no government entity who wants to promote small business. I am constantly running a gauntlet of bureaucratic regulations and taxes designed to limit my growth and increase hardships. Many companies are going bankrupt here and a visit to a mall in Hilo or Kona and you see empty stores. Hotel occupancy is noticeably down along with flights to and from Hawaii. Two major carriers for Hawaii, ALOHA and ATA, are bankrupt and quit operating. Other airlines are cutting routes.

Government on all levels needs to step back drastically and decide if this country is worth saving. Really ... its about survival now. If you don't believe then next time you see Paulson or Bernanke on TV look at their "presence" their "being" ... they exude no confidence at all! Like Bill says these guys put their pants on like anyone else. In the end their families are in as much jeopardy as the rest of us, maybe even more!

Kaimu: to answer your question I have never been to prison... well except two stories not for here... However, I did spent a good half hour in a police car today as they recorded me and try to discover all my dark and dirty secrets for speeding 7 miles over the limit today...

I learn quite a bit today. things are shifting indeed.

long story.. tired... but I will say the midwest is most assuredly getting a bit over zealous in the cops.

But zen mastery does come in handy as they perform the whole bad cop good cop review thing on me... seessh! They most assuredly don't like homeless folks on the road now a days.

(ps I got out of all my tickets this afternoon despite the lengthy inCarceration. )

back on the road...

Sheesh, this market action is just nutzo. I'm glad I stayed away from QID and SKF. I'd have gotten burned yet again.

And who knows, those who bought at close might get yet another large gap that will either thrill or kill.

Unless you have the time and inclination to watch the tape from 9 to 4 est every day, the best place to be is cash (or a solid long-term holding).

SKF range today 121-149
5 weeks of gain gone in 5 days?

vinod:
I bought SKF in after hours trade. SKF's July 15th high was 211+. Today's close exceeds the 39% magic fib retracement (around 128). I do not know if SKF will open up tomorrow, but regardless, I expect significant retracement to the 211 high. It is not unlikely that Paulson's bank bailout scheme will run into trouble in Congress.

vinod- anyone who bought SKF 3 months ago at 89 and sold last week at 211 would have made a profit of 122...so it's conceivable that he could buy back his entire position using "house money..." (LOL)

July 22, 2008, 12:11 pm
For The Memory Chip Sector, A Day To Forget
Posted by Eric Savitz
For the memory sector, it is a day to forget.

Last night, SanDisk (SNDK) reported an extremely nasty June quarter earnings report; the Street has responded with a host of downgrades. And meanwhile, Citigroup chip analyst Glen Yeung this morning cut his ratings on Micron (MU), Qimonda (QI) and Spansion (SPSN) to Hold from Buy. The result is that all of the stocks in the beleaguered sector are getting pummeled. Again.

Yeung writes bluntly that his formerly bullish stance on the memory stocks “has simply been wrong,” and that with “renewed risks forming in the NAND market, compounded by a highly questionable macro environment,” it is time to downgrade the shares.

Yeung says it is no surprise that NAND pricing is weak, but that last night’s SanDisk numbers provided “incremental concern.” He notes that SanDisk reported a 15% increase in on-hand inventories and indicated that channel inventories have increased to 8-9 weeks. That, he says, creates risk of further NAND pricing degradation through the remainder of 2008 and into the first half of 2009.

He also says that the weakness in the NAND flash market will affect the NOR market as well, as a NAND/DRAM combination offers “an increasingly attractive alternative” for NOR customers.

Yeung cuts his Micron price target to $6.50, from $10. For Qimonda, he goes to $2.50, from $6. For Spansion - which is focused on the NOR market - his new target is $3, down from $5.

Meanwhile, as i noted, there was a bountiful harvest of SanDisk downgrades today:

ThinkPanmure’s Vijay Rakesh cut his rating to Sell from Buy, and his price target to $10 from $25, reflecting weak consumer demand, high channel inventory, product margins at zero, uncertainty on licensing and high R&D and capital spending.
Standard & Poor’s Rafay Khalid cut his rating to Sell from Hold, dropping his target to $13 from $22, based “expectation of above-average price deflation reflecting industry over supply,” as well as expected weak demand in a softer economy.
Needham’s Y. Edwin Mok cut his rating to Hold from Buy, asserting that “ballooned inventory will prevent any meaningful margins rebound for several quarters, even as the company delays production ramp and reduces spending.”
Yeung’s colleague, Citigroup’s Craig Ellis, cut his rating to Sell from Hold, and chopped his target to $14 from $20. He says while stalwart bulls will argue that the bad news is priced in, “history argues otherwise when Q1’s ugly seasonality lies ahead.”
In today’s trading:

SanDisk is down $4.29, or 23.9%, to $13.64.
Micron is down 38 cents, or 6.7%, to $5.28.
Qimonda is down 13 cents, or 5.7%, to $2.15.
Spansion is down 16 cents, or 5.8%, to $2.60.

beijing comes up with eight questions NOT to ask foreigners:

http://tinyurl.com/6ly4jn

"Don’t ask about income or expenses, don’t ask about age, don’t ask about love life or marriage, don’t ask about health, don’t ask about someone’s home or address, don’t ask about personal experience, don’t ask about religious beliefs or political views, don’t ask what someone does."

conversations killers, man...

conversatioN killers...or maybe they'll come up with killer conversations anyway...

vinod- re SNDK ratings...that's exactly the kind of game that's getting old...i can understand analysts revising estimates on announcements, but they should NOT be making trading recommendations or setting price targets...they've been around long enough to know that prices can be leading indicators (ie, price drops find their "explanation(s)" months later, and price increases can lead recovery in a sector by the same amount of time), and that recommending "buys" near the top and "sells" near the low does NOT help anyone trade price...JMHO...

2nd
I am adding SNDK in my IRA.300 share
I do not trade in my IRA but do make change once a while

also got out of that oex trade
what I made in morning is lost in oex trade pluse 150 more

you were right in saying money can be lost/made quickly in oex options...

David- thought you might be interested in the Bernstein update on refiners:

http://tinyurl.com/588mbk

My short list of things that are too "wrong" to remain in their current state forever:

1) Deregulation and privatization of public sector responsibilities;

2) Wall Street campaign contributions that end up neutering US Govt. regulatory agencies (through the corresponding political appointments);

3) Our (The U.S.A.'s) two-decade confusion of debt with wealth;

4) Denial and obfuscation and outright fabrication by leaders with a moral duty to support the Constitution and protect tax payers;

5) Leaders attempting the short-term "fix" instead of the painful, long-term cure;

6) Any alleged economic solution that requires more debt, regardless of whether it's public or private; debt is what's caused this whole crap-tastic situation;

7) Fanny and Freddie;

8) Bankers and Brokers;

9) 30x - 50x leverage for funds and GSE's; This is a great number for cowboy hat felt, but a horrible way to leverage a business enterprise;

10) Level II and III write offs by the financials--the chickens will eventually come home to roost and only out-of-the-know traders will be caught when the dance floor disappears beneath their feet; the HB&B are like Elvis, having left the building long before.

11) FDIC "insurance" ; sorry, brah, IndyMac was the warm up and you've blown 15-20% of your bank-roll. Taxpayers will be required to dig deeper;

12) Medicare and Medicaid; Good Lord, can anyone's financial calculator even attempt a present-value calculation of future Govt. obligations? Mine keeps melting into a goo-blob;

13) Politicians from Texas (except Ron Paul!); Dubya, Phil Gramm, Lyndon, etc. Texas Pols not named Ron Paul must go to the penalty box for three terms before being allowed to affect public policy;

14) Hank Paulson. The worst kind of regulator--no thought, at all, for the people; only Wall St. cronies. As bad as I've ever seen, at a time when a real champion is needed. Too bad Dubya is too dumb to know why Paulson is bad, and too bad Cheney and Co. actually run the show--we all deserve so much better.

Roubini: More Than $1 Trillion Needed to Solve Housing Crisis

http://tinyurl.com/5abom2

"Roubini's main concern stems from a view that the "housing recession is not bottoming by any standards," in contrast to hopeful comments from Paulson on Fox News and Barron's last weekend.

The economist believes U.S. home prices will ultimately fall 30% from their peak -- vs. 18% to date according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index -- "before bottoming out some point in 2010."

In the interim, the negative wealth effect of declining home values and increase in "underwater" mortgages will lead to more Americans walking away from their homes. Such "jingle mail" threatens to ultimately cost $1 trillion in credit losses, wiping out 75% of the capital of U.S. financial institutions, Roubini warns."

David

I personally fear that the speed and force of this rally may be an extreme knee jerk reaction to falling crude - a false belief that moderating oil prices will bring immediate benefit to the consumer and ease/eliminate the recession.

Index technicals indeed suggest that a summer rally could bring us to DOW 12,500-900 and S&P 1330-1360. It almost seems scary to me how FAST that may play out. My earlier post wasn't to suggestthis rally won't or shouldn't happen - more to convey that I STRONGLY FEAR the inherent risk in holding the stocks(banks/airlines/financials/auto manufacturers) that may be needed to get exposure to this knee-jerk rally........I guess, ironically, the fact that this is the kind of rally could turn south on a dime at any point is also the reason I believe it may be amazing and parabolic to the upside in the short term

I am just trying to figure out the who, how, why and when................and since that is very hard, I think the strategy may just be to watch this rally happen and react when I've got a better handle on long term direction.........I'd rather be waiting for the oil/gas/commodities to come to me than driving blind with the financials/autos/airlines

--------------------------------

Mackinaw - there are indeed a lot of good companies that have been beaten down in the downtrend since Jul/Aug '07.....I'm just not convinced that we have begun a multi-quarter uptrend for any particular sector, hence my feeling that if I choose to play this rally I will not stray far from the sell button and will keep an eye on my index targets........

http://tinyurl.com/62487f
"July 22 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday said it may cut its ratings on Washington Mutual Inc's (WM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) senior unsecured debt into junk territory, after the largest U.S. savings and loan posted a $3.33 billion second-quarter loss."

Bernacke can give them access to the fed window to exchange junk debt for Treasuries? This may be unexpected.

I'm hearing WAMU is very likely toast, Wachovia might squeak through by the skin of their teeth.

The loss peak should occur in the next 2-4 quarters.

2nd - my last story about wild pigs was for Kaimu, but this one's for you and talking with the Chinese people.

I've had an eventful work life and while I did a memorable stint as a roughneck, I got my college degree in horticulture in the mid 80's. That basically means that you spend your internship as a landscaper or nurseryman (I'm sure Kaimu can identify with this too).

While I was in college and working for another guy that was not long out of my program, we were invited to do a display for the state of Ohio as their representative at a big lawn and garden show.

Since it was in our capital, they gave us a prime spot and we were a bit overwhelmed with the responsibility because we didn't have any experienced help...Just 3 of us. But we took it on anyway.

We didn't realize that the state had also invited a state in China to come and set up a display right next to us until we got started and it was a little odd. We were working side by side everyday and would wave hello but nobody could actually talk to each other because not only did we not speak each other's languages, they were instructed not to even try to talk to us and were always under supervision.

But as the couple of weeks wore on, the handlers got a little bit lax and you could tell that the workers were quite fascinated by what we were doing and would make comments (with a smile) in passing when they got bold. But we didn't have a clue what they were saying to us.

Anyway on our last day, we had been putting up a railroad tie flower bed and were bending nails left and right. My boss told me we were out of nails and said that we didn't have enough time to get more (16 pennies). He said, you've been friendly with those Chinese guys, maybe they have a couple of extras and could you go ask?

I said ok and took our last and bent nail over to the barrier and asked one of the guys that I'd gotten friendly with (even though we couldn't understand anything each other said) and showed him the nail. I pointed to it and then to myself, and then our job and gave an expression to say "do you have any?" He immediately gave a signal of yes and ran off. I thought sweet! Within a few moments he came running back and had a huge box of bent up 16 penny nails!

too funny. I had to acknowledge my mistake by nodding my head in agreement and accepting them without letting them know of the communication breakdown.

Those guys were cool, and for some reason they absolutely were blown away by our Stihl chainsaw and their handlers did allow them to finally come over to our pavillion at the end and walk around and try to chat some more at least.

We all had fun at that show though and yeah, we did finish our project before the show...barely. They were both great displays.

Thanks for the link about the refiners, 2nd_ave. That link talks only about slowing demand for gasoline, which I think the smart money has expected as the prices at the pump were rising. The most recent unexpected event, however, is the change of trend in the price of oil (if it indeed has taken place), which changes the trend in refiner's input costs. I suspect that the prices at the pump will fall slower than crude at this point, so the profit margins of refiners should keep increasing. In any case, the price target of $44 on VLO mentioned in the article suits me well :), since the August puts I wrote on VLO have a cost basis of about $34.3 if the shares are put to me.

DavidV

All the Financials are toast!

I loaded up on UNG, calls on UNG, USO, calls on USO, XTO, UOY, Held HTE, Sold ALL refiners except embedded in HTE, LEAPS on GLD, New positions DGP and SLV.

Gloves off... Head fake in full bloom.
Taking August off and expect to be pleased on return.

Sold DIA calls.

Paulson is a blithering, clueless idiot. God help us!

Chavez moves towards major energy projects with Russia. Per BBC Website:

"We are considering issues linked to our strategic partnership, be it in the energy sector, industry, finance, science and technology, or military issues," said Mr Chavez.
Following the talks, Mr Medvedev said Gazprom, Lukoil and TNK-BP would be allowed to operate in Venezuela's resource-rich Orinoco Belt.
"Venezuela is now the most important partner of the Russian Federation," said the Russian president, a former chairman of Gazprom.

_________________________________________________

Might do good things for Rusoro's ambitions?

Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

SU - Upgraded to Sector Outperform @ CIBC.

Nice call, Bill.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Cara 100 News from the AP:

"Yahoo Inc. also reported that second-quarter profit slipped and missed projections. However, its results weren't as weak as many investors feared after Internet search and advertising leader Google Inc. disappointed Wall Street last week."

"Costco Wholesale Corp. said Wednesday fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year profit will miss Wall Street expectations, as the warehouse club operator expects higher energy costs to crimp its bottom line. It will release results on Oct. 8."

"Household appliance maker Whirlpool its profit fell 27 percent in the second quarter because of higher material and oil-related costs, and lower U.S. demand. The results still surpassed projections."

SKF- exited pre-market at 122.50/122.65...

David- UAUA-> did i put out $10 as a target yesterday? damned close this morning, as it hit $9.90 pre-market...that's twice in one week that conviction trumped discipline (could not afford to hold that one overnight)...