Investors are running for the hills today, but are they running in the right direction? In this very informative webcast, Marc Faber and Frank Holmes discuss global investment opportunities and threats.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/3kn4hp

Gold moving up this morning - now at 933.5. Looks like silver might be flexing some muscle too.

Some swell guy sold me some Randgold (GOLD) at $44.66 this morning (yesterdays close was $46.18). I reloaded part of the position I shed last week.

-----------------

Prieur - nice link to the Holmes/Faber presentation - I'm listening now

Anyone considering long USD / shorting gold? Upon taking a gander at Bill's daily report, the Yen, pound, euro have all banged up against resistance and began to retreat, the loonie took a dive yesterday, gold and oil had some really ugly candlesticks yesterday. Dare I say it? Oil looking toppy?

Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

New Coverage:

ADBE - Outperform @ Friedman Billings
NOK - Underperform @ Bernstein

Target Price Lowered:

ERJ - from $55 to $38 @ Credit Suisse

--------------------------------------------------

Have an exciting day at the amusement park.

And by "toppy" I mean intermediate, of course. Nothing stopping a small slide to the 50-day and then up, up, and away we go again.

buy list-> financials (AIG, WFC, HBC, JPM, BAC) and air transport (FDX, UPS, BA, LUV)...should have opening positions in all by EOD-> these are of course all in the AZ (and i don't think any are headed for the dead zone); acutally hoping these will be more than just ST trades...

I've got my scuba gear on this morning. And my bible close by.

less than 250 points away from 11000 right now...nothing underpins a rally better than a sharp spike down on high volatility, and hoping we get one today...

2nd, my buy list includes a gun, canned goods and a shovel.

n2s- you only need your bible during times of reflection and bereavement, not on your way to the mall for a fire sale ;)

2nd: BA on the Bloomberg ticker on some news about a damaged 787 body section affecting the schedule. Notice how the bad news on BA is a daily drumbeat? Yesterday two/three negative headlines, today another. They are beating this thing down to my entry point.....so I'm with you for the long haul. May be some pain for a while but aircraft replacement cycle won't go away.
AAMOF, more fuel efficiency is paramount.

XLF in the 19's today as well.

you should be piling the wife and kids in along for the ride...i've even got sights on TGT, SBUX and WFMI here...

My favorite lyric...Send Lawyers, Guns and Money....the shit has hit the fan.

Whaddya' buyin' the gun fer?

craig- yes, added (now at 60%) to UYG at 19.68 this morning...basis around 20, which really isn't a bad spot even if the big picture eventually zooms out to a lower "bottom"...

Been scaling into SBUX this week. Waiting for low(er) 15's/upper 14's. I see we have the same list.....LOL!

2nd, good luck on the shopping trip. This will be an historic day.

nemo, as for the gun I'm gonna line the cans up on a fence after I've eaten their contents and work on my Clint Eastwood impression. ;)

I'll be keeping an eye on the opportunity to buy option straddles if we get that big dip.

nemo-> LOL, craig uses the gun for target practice-> buy points and sell points...nothing feels better than having powder when it drops, or supply when they're running it up-> both openings are great for setting your sights and picking entries and exits...

Ya' mean, "Do you feel lucky....punk?"

Although they may dip down at the opening, T and global water infrastructure ETF CGW went thru and closed above 30 on the daily RSI 7. Both potential longer term (vs. day trade) plays. Definition of long term to be determined (3 days, weeks, months or years?) (No positions due to travel)

Looks like a wild day shaping up, only here for an hour, then heading out to PHX. Good luck and keep your head low. Don't shoot 'till you see the red in their eyes.

n2s- still enjoy watching magnum force every few years...watched the original in a theatre in downtown SF...cost plus was never the same afterwards LOL

who's got a great short idea today?

Yeah, I'm feeling a little a like a gunslinger this AM.... gotta take your shot when the fear is thick. Got into some GFI for 12.42 at the PM open.
Gold up and a discount on GFI? Gold bullets, a step-up from the Lone Ranger.

Craig,
Thanks for reminding me that awesome song was missing from my collection. Just grabbed it on itunes. All ready have guns.
Good trading...

2nd ... and "Unforgiven" is the best American movie of the last 20 years. In a class by itself.

Get your stink bids ready people. And remember, under no circumstances use margin.

shark- the easy money has been made in shorts on financials/refiners/consumer discretionaries/transports, IMO...why not try oil/energy..

shark, shorting the hole like this is a mug's game, imo.

Eastwood: "Deservin' ain't got nothin' to do with it."

Not a bad idea. And for my encore I will swan dive off the Eiffel tower into a kiddy pool:)

n2s- favorite western is 'once upon a time in the west'...when i was living in ann arbor, the michigan theatre would run it during one of their summer film festivals-> sitting in a huge renovated air-conditioned theatre (temperature and humidity both in the 90s outside, of course) for three hours watching greats from the past like bronson, fonda, and robards act out a classic story...no better way to spend the afternoon..

BH- now you know why i hate giving advice...could have let it run up another 6%..ouch...

2nd,

Have you thrown in the towel on the ESLR long yet?

adding to CAF, now at 80%...

I'll let 2nd answer for himself. But I haven't. NOTHING has changed about the fundamental story for this company.

ESLR has:

1. $1.2B in backlog
2. Capital to fund growth to profitability by Jan '09.
3. World class technology
4. World class manufacturing process
5. They are CREATING jobs in the U.S.

And people are selling their stock? Incredible. Their market cap is less than backlog right now.

2nd,

No problem here, my friend. One never knows what Monday morning brings. As it stands, selling SKF was my second biggest market score ever.

Regards

shark- ESLR? maybe when it hits 18, which it will sometime in 2009...(for all the gains i made daytrading, it all PALES in comparison to the gains to be had buying the AZ and selling the DZ, my friend)-> you said you wanted to retire early? you could do much worse than start accumulating now...

BH- OK, thanks...just hate to see the pinball score at 260800 when it coulda been 276450 ;)

Safe travels Seamus. Our thoughts and prayers are with you and your mission.

Shark....try shorting SKF. As usual, do your own DD.....

The Gods at Goldman Sachs - worth the read !!

http://risingdividendinvesting.blogspot.com/2008/06/gods-at-goldman-taketh-away-but-are.html

2nd
sold all yesterday ($2000 Hit)and kept only 300 TBT
will wait to see how day is going to be before loading. will get in one that came under CARA buy list and BA/UYG/WFMI/TGT. do not have faith in CAF

Same here, Seamus, safe journey and may God bless and keep your friend.

ok but where's your sell stop in case things go wrong(er)?

Hey guys,
Now that summer vacation is here I'm busy having fun with the kids. I've been reading the blog but haven't had time to comment. And now we're off again and coming back this afternoon. Great discourse over the past couple of days.

I still think some of you are too hopeful for a bounce here and an end to the commodity run.

I still think oil has a ways to go higher and am starting to think they're running it up on purpose to make the banks and brokerages quick money and also to be able to blame the lousy economy on high commodities instead of on their own mistakes and failures.

Good luck everyone!! See you this afternoon.
Rob.

Thanks Craig, N2son, guys

Aurator--think you went with those RTN calls yesterday . . . looks like it's headed in the right direction . . . holding some RTN myself.

I trade it minute to minute on the XLF chart using fast macd/williams%R/CCI.

If you had shorted 100 shares at the open you'de be up $700.

Bought 200 of BA on Goldman's advice to sell. Thanks for all of your insights Bill. It helps make me feel as if I'm not trading against the world.

I have been reading this blog for over two years and think it is the most informative site about trading that I know of. Thanks to all and especially of course to Bill.
Bill:
You made a comment yesterday on junior gold stocks. They are the only really risky investment I have ever made (a significant chunk of my assets invested 2 years ago) because I thought the economic environment was very conducive to such investment. I do not have time to trade these stocks and was planning to keep them up to the gold peak.Do you think they will not follow gold in the way up? Could it be that they are just being sold/shorted while going long seniors/gold for the time being? and they will catch up later? or may be this is just my wishful thinking?...
Many thanks for all

[Bill Cara note: I hesitate writing about the juniors because, despite many having the attributes of high-quality companies (ie, strong management team, well-financed treasury, excellent properties for exploration, good-sized following, etc), the stocks are too much dependent on credit expansion (ie, easy money), which drives speculation. When the conditions are good, the results are great; but when conditions reverse, the downside is often -80% from previous highs, and unless you are a frequent trader, you usually miss the bus when it departs the station. My problem is that there are far too many good 'stories' to follow and still keep up to everything else, so I tend to follow a few (mostly my friends' companies that I get to hear more about on a social level). Those stocks rise and fall with the tide. Unfortunately.

As to the argument I hear that 'somebody' is shorting the small/micro-cap mining explorers and buying the majors, I don't believe it. The big hedge funds are buying the major oil and mining stocks together, and they will likely sell them off together, but the promoters of the negative cashflow explorers can't catch a bid because money is tight and traders know the promoter is constantly raising capital. If there are shorts, including naked shorts, which I do think is happening, it likely has nothing to do with the buying that has happened in the majors recently. Besides, when capital was previously raised for many of these explorers, there was promise of a discovery or whatever, which are stories that get old quickly. Short-sellers take advantage of promoters who over-hype their stocks in a frothy market. When reality hits, and volumes start falling, the short-sellers flood into the market, and the promoters who can't find support soon find their stocks getting crushed.]

Opened straddle on IWM - bought July 69 call @ 1.35, bought July 68 put @ 1.60

Craig: XLF short 100 shares up $700. Now that's a nice trick, but how do you do that?

100 times 19.93 = $1993 open price

100 times 1986 = $1986 low price

difference $7 gross of costs

XLF 19.86

Ok here's a strange...I placed a Scottrade order to buy 1000 VGZ (Vista Gold) this morning and got a message that said call the branch, you can't buy this stock on the net. Of course the people at the branch didn't know why, hadn't heard that Kennedy'd been shot, didn't know the cold war was over. Any of you know why this security can't be traded on Scottrade?

I was talking about shorting the SKF using the XLF chart. Open price 160.91, low 153.28.

Thanks Craig. For the next time please consider:"If you had shorted 100 shares of SKF at the open you'de be up $700.

The powers to be have sure worked overtime to shake you out of your positions at the open. Amazing!

"Shark....try shorting SKF. As usual, do your own DD....."

"ok but where's your sell stop in case things go wrong(er)?

Posted by: shark_attack at July 1, 2008 9:51 AM [link]"

"I trade it minute to minute on the XLF chart using fast macd/williams%R/CCI.

If you had shorted 100 shares at the open you'de be up $700."

GFI - On daily chart, has risen to touch the underside of the descending triangle from which it broke down in late May.

Gotta check my Edwards & McGee, but no time. Without reference to their tome, my expectation would be that some resistance should be encountered here.

Craig,

My sell stop comment was directed at 2nd, not you. Your advice was good, just a little out of my familiarity zone. Shorting an ultra short, (going ultra long) financials wasn't for me, but I hope it worked out 4 you.

So what do you think OG, does it break the trendline or does it push off resistance?

I see...my mistake then....Sorry guys.

Bought 300 of AT&T. On another note.
I vacationed for a week at Branson, Missouri the beginning of June. I must say there is quite a bit to do there and highly recommend it as a vacationing spot. There are shows up the wazoo to go to. Rented jet skis one day and a boat another. The water temp was perfect and the lake is huge. I drove from Calif and it was about 4300 miles roundtrip. (used my FREE govt money for gas) thanks uncle W &^%$^&, for nothing. Prices for gas averaged about $4 a gallon and the total bill for gas was under $600. I get close to 30mpg hwy in my BMW 3. Best Western motels on the road were about $85 on average.
Well it won't be long before it's time to vote and I'm still voting for Ron Paul. He gets it.

shark- i don't use stops...convinced market makers take prices down to them to take you out before driving prices back up...JMO...

It's funny how the real right winger (Paul) and the real left winger (Nader) are nowhere to be found in the media's coverage of the dog and pony show known as the presidential race. We're left with 2 guys I wouldn't vote for if offered free drinks, a fistful of cash and with a gun pointed to me head.

Interesting that Bill listens to country music while trading. After all in most country, you lose. Lose your dog, lose your woman, your truck, your housetrailer...

I prefer to put hard core pornography on at full volume. The dirty sleaze is just the right atmosphere for dealing with the cesspool that is the capital markets.

And they do it to us every time...All true diversity is wrung out of the candidates during the primary season and all meaningful choice removed. We are being held hostage by the extra-constitutional mafia's known as political parties.

"Canada Day" - For past few years, my wife and I have spent the week of Canada Day in Victoria. A great free concert on the legislative lawn and fireworks. The people are wonderful, the food is tastey, and the people watching is terrific. Before the US dollar fell to peso levels, it was a great bargain. Unfortunately, we won't make it this year, but hope to make it up to Penticton and the Canadian wine country later in the summer.

Getting long BA here at 65.97. Time frame is months to years.

I wouldn't call Paul a "right winger", shark. He is rather a traditional conservative, particularly when it comes to the economy. The "right wingers" in this country are war hawks and spend thrifts of singular distinction, and as morally corrupt as any creature that has emerged from the muck of American politics.

Nader is just a pest who has long overstayed his welcome.

Too right Shark. I see Obama wants to continue Bush's "faith based initiatives". And here I thought Hillary was a sell out and would say anything.

This is where I get off the bus.....

I subscribe to the "cow" theory of politics.

The various vegetation on which the cow feasts are the different groups in the political spectrum. However, as the vegetation passes through the production process, much as the candidates pass through the candidate production process, they all come out basically the same at the end...

Billy, I like your IWM straddle. It will pay off well if this volatility keeps up.

I think there will be a retest of the days low (W bottom) at which point, if it holds, we can short SKF.

Today is looking like previous interim bottoms in this bear market: collapse at the open which is aggressively bought, retest, and up we go.

Craig - GFI might pull back to fill the gap at 12.04 (not a prediction/not advice) before advancing much further. I've gotta find and re-read the pertinent sections of my E&M "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends".

What's really delightful about these bounces is when your darlings (i.e., ESLR) can't be bothered to participate. ;)

Pins and needles, needles and pins, a man with patience is a man that wins ...

... sigh

Shark, you'd do well to exercise you right to vote. Choose the lesser of two evils if that's what it feels like, but either way, VOTE. It is one of the most patriotic things you can do. Keep in mind the political appointees who run things like the FEMA, EPA, DOJ, and how you'd like to see those organizations run.

Adding to T here 33.56. Technicals look good, with a bounce off support from Feb 20 low, slow sto turning up, MACD histo tapering off. With the div yield should be attractive for safe haven types. Stop just under Feb low.

Thank you OG:
Sold the GFI I bought this AM and took my 3.8%.

I always liked this quote, still working on it though.

I can't tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way.

-- Jesse Livermore

Checked my Scottrade account today for my utra short dividends which was posted yesterday. I noticed something odd. They had the following for most of my ultra shorts.

--PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT QQQ DIVIDEND #shares

and

---PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT QQQ SUBSTITUTE DIVIDEND #shares

Any one know why they would have part of my total holdings listed at SUBSTITUTE?

Minefinders and Silver Wheaton are absolutely on fire today. Minefinders is still cheap and they are starting production this month.

LYM.V - Wonder why this one moves opposite the industry... Maybe an industry leader?

Nice move taking place in WGW - I'm above water finally - will be holding for awhile though so just a nice milestone

Pete,

The most patriotic thing I could do would be to stand on the steps of the supreme Court and burn copies of the constitution while playing God Save the Queen by the Sex Pistols.

i think today is a good time to be buying, but not necessarily the day we rally...just don't see the catalyst for one right now, unless oil makes a move...

BA - Adding more, Bid @$64.56 Should be one of the first to benefit from reversal. This one can be passed on in my will, if necessary...

if no other reason to vote, the direction of the supreme court for years to come is up for grabs with this election

Alaska Pete - You know if you listen to country music backwards, your wife comes back, your mom gets out of prison, and the pickup gets repaired.

UPS-> buying at 60.23, FDX at 75.55...WFC at 23.38, BAC at 23...

IYT puts on fire. Put on SKF and Call on RTN worked perfectly; out. MFN and PLG ignited SRBs.

Sorry, that was a Call on SKF.

Vote - IMO the right thing is to wright in RON Paul. Two rights don't make a wrong!!!

Retest in progress. W bottom?

Aurator

Did you see Robert McHugh's email this morning? Think it is unfolding like he said?

Wow, tick went obscenely negative. Maybe just trying to scare everyone out of their shares, or we are going to fold.

QT: Have not done email yet. Will look. Thx!

Israel May Attack Iran, Pentagon Official Tells ABC (Update2)

By Ladane Nasseri and Thomas Penny

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Israel is increasingly likely to attack Iranian nuclear facilities this year, a U.S. Defense Department official told ABC News.

Iran's government dismissed as propaganda the ABC report on the unidentified Pentagon official's comments. Israeli government officials declined to comment on the report.

McHugh warns of a waterfall with no end in sight.

Jim Sinclair
Dear Friends,
There are two subjects of extreme importance today.
I sent you an email months ago saying, ?This Is It.?
1. I am now telling you, ?It Is Now.?
Gold is preparing for an assault not on $1000, but for a brief penetration of $1200.
Violent chopping will occur, then off it goes to $1650.

Aurator

I know and of course the 6th Hindenburg Omen... Which is getting kind of old. What do you think, could he be right today?

dug on a tear

2nd...I love you man. Get a hold of yourself.
This is no freaking time to be long or to go long. Sell the evergreen, you're down 95 cents on it. Give up your long bias. It's cooked. It's done. Stick a fork in it, and remember, I love you man.

did you guys see what happened to the vgz
i couldnt buy? a thousand shares at 3.79 went to 4.13 for a potential gain of over 300 clams. darn scottrade and their goshdarn lists.

QT: That DOW graph does look a bit like a waterfall. Nice rainbow.

I can't do puts today as I locked up my day trading capital limit. Foo. Did buy 10 Sept 25 VIX calls. The IYT put for July 90 is up 59% today alone.

Keep your fingers off the sides of the handbasket. ;)

Aurator
:-) Got you!

shark, I'm still long ESLR and will remain long until the fundamentals change. They have not. Now may be no time to be adding, but it is certainly no time to sell.

Aurator
:-) Got you!

vinod
Are you adding IBN at this level, I open my positions at 27.23 and added at 26.08. I think it has a good chance bottom around here. Any news other than they raised rates? TIA

Great story in Vanity Fair about the fall of Bear Stearns, the insider dynamics and interplay with the talking heads at CNBC.

http://tinyurl.com/5c25lf

It's a long read (8 pages) but very much worth the time!

8heir
yes, I will keep adding untill my position is around 600
now I have 300

IBN
Details Filled at $26.94

Interesting to see an all time high on Goldcorp today (GG) - $48.30 and rolling

..."Bernanke and Greenspan together will probably bring [about] the end of the Federal Reserve," Rogers said...

http://tinyurl.com/5nrkqr

Junior exploration companies - Bill and ST07

Bill - I think your comments are painfully accurate. I think the only juniors with good risk/reward in today's market are those who do NOT need capital, and have huge enough deposits to attract a senior producer either as acquirer or as JV production partner:

-- Seabridge, with 30M compliant ounces in (safe, reliable) Canada, which intends to conduct an auction to sell the company;

-- Aurelian with 15M oz and counting, if Ecuador's mining law turns out reasonable.

-- NovaGold, partnered with Barrick, and Teck Cominco for their 30M oz.

Another exception may be NewGold, which has operating mines, and a mining-finance "dream team" including Ian Telford and Seymour Schulich.

But the rule (to these exceptions) is cruel! It costs LOTS of time, luck, and capital to move from early-stage explorer to having a critical mass of compliant ounces. I suspect juniors who seek early-stage exploration/development JV's with seniors (RRI, FMM, AZM) are forced to do so on less-than-favorable terms. They have no bargaining power without direct access to capital markets.

BTW, none of the above are junior-juniors doing pure exploration. Only NewGold (at $312M)is below $750M market cap. (disclosure: I hold all companies mentioned.)

Reactions, anybody?
________________________________

STO: people use the Toronto Venture Composite index to generalize about juniors, but that index is 40% energy start-ups and, therefore, not useful for our purposes. One website publishes an index of junior gold explorers, with sub-indices for junior explorers and junior developers, but they don't disclose the components, so I don't pay it much attention.

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/main.html

When the juniors revive, we can create our own index of top-quality juniors.

I will re-post a message from last night, as some people may not have seen it.

6/30/2008:

What do people here think about the recent John Mauldin’s “Outside the Box” titled “The end of inflation scare” [http://tinyurl.com/3kwyco]? Are any of the arguments in that article faulty?

Here are some quotes from it:
- While the Fed did print money aggressively between 2002 and 2005 (M1 annual growth was above +5% and sometimes close to +10%), in recent years, the pace of monetary creation has by and large been tame. So the ‘excess money' had to come from somewhere else.
- So we are now in a situation where a) The Fed is not printing money and b) US financials are de-leveraging rapidly. Thus, if inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon", one may conclude that what we are now seeing in the inflation numbers is the echo of the 2003-2007 credit boom, but that looking ahead, the inflation picture should start improving rather dramatically. But such a conclusion would miss out on the other big contributor to global liquidity growth, namely the US current account deficit.
- We would thus argue that the US current account deficit has been a double inflationary force for the world at large. First, the US current account deficit has pushed a number of countries towards reflation, and secondly, the large US current account deficit has helped propagate the belief that the US$ could only fall, and thus encouraged large borrowings of US$ outside of the US.
- Will an ever growing US trade deficit continue to force other countries to reflate and lead to an ever lower US$? We tend to believe that the answer to that question is a very firm "no". And, this for several reasons: ...

David - I think that opinion is dead wrong.

There is no evidence of any policy change or trend that will strengthen the dollar. On the contrary.

Looks like the interim W bottom is in to me.

shark- I fly the flag(actually the full page flag from the newspaper) upsidedown on 4th. It is a sign of distress.

Unable to short QID or SKF at my broker. No shares.

David:

What do you think the outlook for tax receipts are to finance the fiscal deficit?

Do you then see the fiscal deficit shrinking?

Do you see the current accounts deficit improving?

We are likely to import less of everything, but will our exports grow enough to overcome the growing export deficit in oil?

I think if you answer those questions, you'll have an idea on which way the dollar is headed.

Where the hell is Kaimu?

"When" - is my biggest question when it comes to shorting energy. What possible information or actions are going to take it down? Will we see the Fed increase rates? Is supply going to come online faster than expected? Are there going to be new fields discovered?

When shorting energy, would a bear credit spread be a good play or would you be better off buying LEAPS?

seeing a little fear-> adding to all of the above...

I fly the Jolly Roger, as is in keeping with my occupation as a market pirate.

Aurator - is it possible that the "policy" change that would stabilize the dollar would actually come from compensatory monetary ease by foreign central banks like the ECB, who may have to lower their borrowing rates to help compensate for falling trade volumes from the U.S.?

This would seem to stabilize the dollar vs. world currencies but not actually stabilize world currencies against inflating commodities/metals prices.

I guess the argument depends whether we are referring to "stregthen" as a measurement vs. other currencies or as a measurement of real buying power.

TICK very positive now.

GM reports "better than expected" results, sales down "only" 8%, when the street had been looking for down 19%. Gee, hoo ha. So much for the washout.

"Moody's, the world's second largest credit-rating company, said today that employees, not the company's practices, were to blame. "

"``Moody's have lost a lot of credibility,'' said Jeroen Van Den Broek, head of investment-grade credit strategy at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam, a unit of the biggest Dutch financial services company. ``It seems like they're looking for a scapegoat.'' "

The lack of leadership is unbelievable.

http://tinyurl.com/6h5kku (Bloomberg)

Slowly unwinding XLY/RTH put position for a decent gain. Also started selling deep OTM naked puts on things I like. Option premiums on refiners and especially airlines are enormous.

General Motors Corp. Last: 12.12+0.62+5.39%

2:12pm 07/01/2008

GM on Tuesday reported an 18.2% decline in June U.S. light vehicle sales to 262,329 cars and trucks from 320,668 in June 2007. Sales of cars slid 21.1% while trucks declined 16%.

Just bought 1/2 postion in UAUA@ $4.62

Looking for the oil report tomorrow to show builds in oil...

BTW I still disagree that we have seen the worst in discretionary / retailers, at least not to the same degree as in financials and homebuilders. I will be looking for an opportunity to re-short both with longer term puts for another year or until clear market capitulation.

Moab: Nice Call as always...:)

Thanks EEM. The morning low didn't hold which was scary, but the demand in the morning was very strong, which tipped the hand.

Thursday could be a doozy. What happens if the ECB raises?

Moab: No idea on ECB..dollar dives again i suppose and all the trades that follow that ..gonna be fishing.

tommorow should be lucrative with oil inventory report..either way..

Nice win on GFI, Craig! My brother has a saying: "When the market gives you a gift, take it!" Of course, there's Jesse's point of view to consider, as T3d has pointed out; I was going to cite Jesse's remark about not growing rich taking a four point move in a bull market....

QT - You have apparently received "payments in lieu of dividends" on some of your shares, which have been borrowed and sold short by someone else. The guy who sold your shares has to pay you the dividend you didn't get (since that dividend went to the new real owner of those shares). Note that such payments to you are NOT eligible for the special tax treatment accorded most dividends (assuming US tax law applies). Just type "in lieu of dividends" (including the quotation marks) into Google for more info.

anyone buying dgp?

Brunswick is running. In on this one. How much more oversold can it get?

OldGoat

I never offered my shares up to be shorted. I guess Scottrade did. I didn't know they could do that.

So would I still not be eligible for the special tax treatment?

no GM stock to short at ameritrade what a bummer!

QT - if you have a margin account then they can borrow you stocks for shorting at will. Tax treatment of in leu payments should be exactly the same as the original source.

I never cease to be amazed that guys are willing to keep company with the blasphemously named Madonna. The latest is that while Alex Rodriguez, married with kids, may be mostly a singles hitter with the Yankees these days, he's hitting most of his home runs after hours:

"Us Weekly reports in its new issue, on newsstands tomorrow, that Madonna's seven-year marriage to Guy Ritchie has stalled out – and the singer has been hosting late-night visits from New York Yankee Alex Rodriguez at her Central Park West apartment in New York City."

Put Madonna and Demi Moore together and they'd be 95 years old!

[Bill Cara note: sharkie, you may think that added remark is funny but some parents here don't. I struck it.]

occam_razor

Thanks for the info...

ALOHA !!

And so it starts ... Watch all the US sales taxes rise and the property taxes and watch the US income deductions tighten and estate tax exemptions disappear as Social Security and Medicare benefits lessen and are taxed more.

Here in Hawaii sales tax is at 4.2% while my ex-State of California, even back in 2002, in Contra Costa County the sales tax was 8.75%. What is it now?

So the tax hikes start in OBAMA LAND!!

If foreigners slow or stop buying US debt as tax revenues are reduced due to layoffs and bad real estate and stock markets(remember people who need money will gladly sell stock at a loss to make their mortgage payment), the US government will be FORCED to print money to make up for the shortfall. The only way out is to renege on Social Security(piss off AARP) and Medicare(piss off big Pharma) and Welfare(piss off 50mil poor voters) and leave Iraq(piss off defense contractors)and neither of the two party aristocracy(Dems & Reps)will do that since a radical move like that will mean the end of their reign of power! Once the US government cranks up the printing presses to retain their power then the "free ride" is over and look for $15USD per gallon gas! It won't mean a damn thing if anyone even has a job ... the prices will rise because our money will be worthless ...

The next shoe to drop will be strikes by unions for wage increases. The US Congress has already voted to increase minimum wage and military pay, but the unions need to do their part, especially the US government workers unions. I have complete faith that the unions will come through and succeed! The only ones with no rosy long term outlook are the financial sector employees and residential construction.

It all boils down to the fact that our US Congress are in bed with EVERYONE and ANYONE!!!

YOUR TAX PESOS AT WORK !!

YOU VOTED FOR IT!

READ ON:
Cook County Tax Hike In Effect, Businesses Furious
Taxes In Chicago Now 10.25 Percent, Highest In Country

CHICAGO (CBS) ― The highest sales tax in the nation is now found in Chicago, and it's costing Cook County residents more to buy just about everything.

As CBS 2's Joanie Lum reports, a 1 percent sales tax hike approved by the Cook County Board for its 2008 budget went into effect on Tuesday. The hike is not sitting well with consumers or businesses.

In downtown Chicago on Monday, a cup of Starbucks coffee cost 2 cents less than it did on Tuesday. That may not be much of a difference, but consumers are noticing it anyway.

"I buy coffee every day, so it'll probably affect me in the long run," said Emily DeMarco.

The 1 percent increase hikes the sales tax in Chicago to 10.25 percent. By comparison, the sales tax in Lake and Will counties is 7 percent, and in DuPage County, it's 7.25 percent.

A sales tax of 10.25 percent is also significantly higher than the sales tax in other major cities. The next highest rate in the country is in Memphis at 9.25 percent. New York, Los Angeles and Dallas all have a sales tax of less than 8.3 percent, Phoenix has a tax of 6.3 percent, and Denver's sales tax is only 3.6 percent.

Aurator, your info on GM contradicts what talking heads said as the news came out, which is where I got it. So, it really was as bad as expected, then??

ALOHA !!

A SIGN OF THE TIMES ...

Gold Standard University Live: R.I.P.
By Antal Fekete
Jul 1 2008 9:45AM

The Inaugural Session of GSUL took place in February, 2007, at the Martineum Academy in Hungary. Subsequent sessions, including one in Dallas, Texas, showed a healthy increase in attendance, on average by fifty percent. Still, I am now forced to announce that Session Four in Hungary in July, and Session Five in Canberra, Australia in November will be the last. GSUL will fold tent as its sponsor, Sprott Asset Management, Inc., has withdrawn its financial support. Mr. Eric Sprott said in his letter that “we weren’t attracting enough interest to justify that ongoing expenditure”.END

Meanwhile Eric Sprott moves into a new $7.15mil mansion in Arizona ...

READ ON:
Scottsdale home sells for $7.15M

Jun. 11, 2008 11:23 AM
Arizona Republic

$7,150,000.

Eric S. Sprott and his wife, Vizma, from Oakville, Ontario, bought a new home on the west side of Desert Mountain-Geronimo Golf Course in Scottsdale. Eric Sprott founded Sprott Securities Inc. in 1981. He was CEO, president and director of investment strategy of the company. In 2000, Sprott established Sprott Asset Management and divested his entire ownership of Sprott Securities Inc. to its employees. Currently he is chairman, president, CEO and acting chief financial officer of Sprott Asset Management and portfolio manager responsible for Sprott Hedge Fund I and II, Sprott Offshore Fund, Sprott Canadian Equity Fund, Sprott Energy fund, Sprott Bull/Bear RSP Fund and the Sprott Managed Accounts. In 2003, he was awarded an honorary doctorate of laws from his alma mater, Carleton University in Ottawa, Ontario. The home was sold by Brahma Land & Development Co. of Black Canyon City.END

(thanks to Astral25)

Is Sprott the new "mini-Trump"?

Sprott says there wasn't enough interest ...

So Sprott makes his billions off GOLD and of course shorting juniors to death, but he can't afford to fund a "Gold University" yet he gets a phoney "bought-and-paid-for" doctorate for funding his ex-college. The ethics of the powerful??? What a major "sellout" this guys is!!! What's that about the eye of a needle?

time for to change brokers... tried to fade the GM spike at 13.15 and but "no shares available" to short..lost opportunity of 10% as of this minute...

I live in Nashville, TN. Our sales tax has been 9.75% for a couple of years. We have a surplus state budget every year, and no state income tax. They keep wanting to have an income tax, they might get it next year if the sales tax slows...

I heard the S&P oscillator was 9.4 yesterday.

Above 8 value: Extreme Oversold

Bought: GE, UYG, UAUA today...

is it time to kill the bears yet? i don't know, but i wouldn't want to be short right now...

too much money waiting to be put in stock
does not look like matket is going to go down much?

vinod- i like the spike down to 11176...close enough for me...

Was it just me or did anyone else miss MSFT at 23.19. I don't know how I missed it but I'm not impressed with myself. Finished the day at 26.87, which is near the old low.

Dang it!

I bought some DGP earlier today. Something had to go as I'm 100% committed, and it was EWS.

That GM rallys on news like that makes me chuckle. Maybe some short covering. Of the entire investing universe, some Einsteins go long GM with oil going to 170 and the price of steel up 60% in 3 months. hehe

craig- sorry to hear that...another reason to switch to mutual funds/ETFs if the watchlist gets too big to monitor...

speaking of mutual funds, unlocked some cash in the 403b-> 40% (of allocation) positions in FIDSX (financials) and FSAIX (air transport) at the close...also long GE/refiners/airlines/UYG/WFC/AIG/BAC/BA/UPS/FDX/SBUX/ESLR/CAF-> pretty long list...from 70% cash down to 35% cash...

2nd
Got SMN/DUG in morning 600 each
And out of it
Also brought many like GOL/IBN/UAUAUYG
Market usually goes up before 4th July, so let EAGLE soar

also learning how to short stock, will take me few month to understand it

It is pretty simple - buy a very oversold market once it shows you serious buying off of support. The SPX was oversold on daily RSI(14) which has only happened twice in this bear market - the mini crash in February 2007 and January 2008.

It might not last long or it could be the start of the summer rally.

Craig
MSFT lowest was 26.46

Craig... I thought the low of 23.19 for msft was an error on my watch list screen and and couldn't find it on the daily chart... but if it wasn't someone got a deal..

For all the Caraista solar sector players

"As if to underline our government's astonishing ability to do nothing as oil climbs above $140 a barrel, the U.S. Bureau of Land management, which manages millions of acres of empty, sunny land in the Southwest, has slapped a moratorium on new applications to put solar collectors on federal land. The agency says it has a backlog of 130 applications and will not accept more before it completes a regional environmental-impact study. The study would take 22 months."

More evidence of disfunctional government impeding economic growth.

Ah yes...I see it on the chart.....
Still a good buy at 26.44 and missed it.
Was probably watching my SKF short and got locked on.

I feel a little better, Thanks guys!

Heads up....CHSCP paid their quarterly div last night and it tends to pull back afterward. Check the div and the LT chart (multi-year). Very steady and pays $2.00 annually for a $25.25 ag equity.

2nd: Looks like my list, although I'm staying away from CAF unless it starts to run.
Now in BA,BRK/B,CHSCP,CNSL,ESLR,GE,MON,PGH,SBUX,T,TAN,TBT,TSO
Longer list than my usual 10, which accts for my missing MSFT messing with SKF short.

Loving the SBUX news! Scaled in and at one point was $600+ down.....but no longer!

The market did not rally today, even though it tried. Many people bought today feeling that we have reached a support level, from which we will rally, just as we did in March. Would a market rally now be the most unexpected outcome (that would deliver the greatest pain to all)? I don't think so... If the market starts falling tomorrow, then those who bought today will panic -- afterall, what is below the current support level? Even though I am net long now (I was gradually closing my shorts as the market was going down), I still have some cash so as to open several new positions in refiners, financials and whatnot on Thursday. It seems reasonable to me that the manipulators will try to hike the oil price as much as possible by Thursday and create a panic in the markets, so as to put more pressure on Congress to allow offshore drilling (and make it more justifiable for Bush to sign an executive order in case Congress does not approve).

DavidV

David -

Buying looked strong today and it looked like the sellers were exhausted. I am not basing my opinion of a rally on sentiment but on the price data. Sentiment-wise this is clearly not the ultimate bottom in this bear market.

Nice wild ride today......days that I live for!

Buys today.....SSO @ 60.31, GLD @ 93.29, EWZ @ 87.48, ESLR @ 9.25

DavidV.....I agree there may be more downside on the way. I'm still 80% cash waiting for the bargains to keep rolling in. If I miss a little upside so be it.

Keep the volatility coming...big swings in that VIX today.

Bill,

That's what's really wrong in society these days, isn't it? Overprotective parents trying to shield their children from at worst, off color remarks, while venerating politicians who are traitors, a flag which serves as a symbol for a primitive nationalism, and a God who is better than the next guy's God (not to even mention the right to bear arms in schools and kill ones classmates) "From my cold dead hands........"

I do defend to the death however your right to edit your own blog. Not on principle but because you're cool.

2nd and others,

Having now made a bullish hammer at support, I will now be looking at ESLR as a POTENTIAL long, emphasis on the potential.

Sharkie: Gotta' agree with you. Western society has a case of Peter Pan syndrome. Heaven help the kids if they ever knew where the meat comes from in those styrofoam packages. Regarding guns: An older friend of mine used to bring theirs into school and store them in their lockers so they could go hunting when they got out for the day. This in a town only 1/2 hour south of Boston.

Does Bank Of America (BAC) Need $10 Billion In New Capital?
KBW, the bank research firms, thinks Bank of America (BAC) will have to raise $10 billion in new capital. Its mix of real estate, LBO, business, and consumer credit debt still faces substantial write-downs.

The figure is part of a report from KBW that says American money center and regional banks will have to come up with $30 billion to make their balance sheets right. According to the AP, "Among the banks reviewed by KBW, 10 are large-capitalization banks that would account for $21 billion in capital necessary to cover potential losses."

For BAC, which is already trading poorly in the market due to general malaise in the bank industry and its ill-advised purchase of Countrywide (CFC), the dilution from raising $10 billion would be close to 15%.

That could take its stock from $23, near a 52-week low, to $18. And, that is if there is no other bad news.

Douglas A. McIntyre

MSFT - According to my screen, MSFT traded between $23.19 - $27.38 (18% range!!!) today.
BA - I entered a low bid @$64.56 after the bounce but was too low. boo-hooo... try again tomorrow.

I'm going to let the prices come to me now because IMO we're going to see $150 oil within the next four weeks, with a slow fade to below $140 this fall. This assumes no new wars....

SBUX - Anyone thinking Starbucks tomorrow?

Court Overturns Ruling That Grasso
Must Return Part of Compensation

the New York Supreme Court's Appellate Division dismissed the two remaining causes of actions against Mr. Grasso and one against former NYSE director Ken Langone, saying New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can no longer pursue the claims under the state's not-for-profit law since the NYSE has become a for-profit company

[Bill Cara note: So, was Grasso grandfathered? I mean, if Grasso broke the law as it was, is he not still guilty? This is just so defeating to any American who really has confidence in the "system". America is just such a crock, built for the insiders and special interests. The rest of you can just pay taxes and spend money. The people in control of America, and I don't mean "the People", don't give a damn about the rest as long as they get theirs first. Something drastic has to be done about this or else people will leave--just like they left England and other places to go to a "free" America. Their capital is already in flight.

What goes around, comes around. I am disappointed that the dark side put Eliot Spitzer where they wanted him. America needs people like him. ]

STO7 - junior exploration/development index

It's down 37% from its high of March/07. Not too encouraging!

(It's from a US site, proprietary, and doesn't divulge its components. Does it have Canadian juniors in it? No way to know!)

http://tinyurl.com/5apzlj

Why would anybody consider an index where the components are unknown?
ronK

I use Resource Stock Guide to track junior performance. They tracks over 10 different indices for gold / silver / uranium exploration and production companies. I've known this website for a while and they are quite reliable.
http://tinyurl.com/3yu83a
Scroll down on this page and you will see different index charts for gold stocks.

Chickenpookie;

Re SBUX
With their announcement of store closings and job layoffs, stock price got a nice AH pop.
I'm convinced that one of those 600 stores to be closed is down the street from me - Opened just a few months ago, the store's meant to attract the residents of new condos on Biscayne Bay. The patrons with their fifty dollar a week habit must walk past the sad sacks of the boulevard, the chronically homeless and such. I feel for them(not the patrons).

Oil, Iran etc.
Just a hunch, but it feels like the Middle East is due for a dustup in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Navy loves their gunboats and what better way to antagonize the U.S. than before the presidential election?

Stu

only in SF:

http://tinyurl.com/5s3p23

would the taxpayers of any other city (to avoid turning illegal immigrants over to Immigration officials) house juvenile crack dealers in another county at an expense to taxpayers of 7000/month per offender? all "because of San Francisco's 1989 declaration that the city is a sanctuary for undocumented immigrants."

Moab is right. Shark's comment on the hammer at support is right. We will see a ST bounce to be sold into.

2nd: Check your e-mail...incoming....

Shark: When you grow-up and have kids you may see the light. Less is more, especially when it comes to unnecessary off-color comments. They affect you more than you know as people take the path of least resistance and they SEE and HEAR what you are about and they judge your character. It took me a long time to sort-of figure this out...I still have momentary transgressions for which I have to apologize.
When you see the principle instead of coolness you will make a big step.

SBUX: have been buying for a few days on the lows, finished adding today at 15.30.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

2nd
I brought some financial today including UYG. But bad news about them keeps coming.
Now I am having second thought
I might get out tomorrow and will stay away from financial until all the bad news out of the way

vinod- that's OK...as long as you're having second thoughts, take a few minutes to consider who you think is buying now, and who you think is selling now, and which side is probably making the smarter move...(not saying my answer to the question will the same as yours)...

ALOHA !!

SBUX ... Like WFMI will be hit hard in the USA as the economy crashes. Lots of high end jobs are on the chopping block, especially in banking and Wall Street and those are the types that both cater to or else how would anyone pay $4 cup for a cup of coffee? High end food and high end coffee ... GOODBYE ... if you own a US Peso!

So here we have SBUX closing 600 stores. I believe this is only the beginning of the SBUX closings in the USA and the World. Its still a hot brand but when you close stores you lose revenue and that's what you're telling shareholders and then when you say you are lowering prices then you are again saying revenues will decrease. Is SBUX and WFMI a good business model for a major recession or depression? I do not think so, but lets see how well management adapts to tough times! Management did well during the GOLDILOCKS days, but many times the same management seriously falters when the profit margins fail.

READ ON:
Starbucks closing 600 stores in the US

By JESSICA MINTZ
AP BUSINESS WRITER

Patrons sit inside a Starbucks store in downtown Boston Tuesday, July 1, 2008. Starbucks Corp. said Tuesday it will close 600 stores in the United States in the next year and cut back the number of new stores it had planned to open.

SEATTLE -- For a decade it appeared there was no such thing as too many Starbucks for U.S. coffee drinkers, whose willingness to buy its $4 lattes and dark drip brews rationalized a second green-and-white mermaid awning just down the street - and sometimes even a third.

But in a sign that those days are over, Starbucks Corp. announced Tuesday it will close 600 company-operated stores in the next year, as the faltering U.S. economy hastened the pain caused by the company's own rapid expansion.

Starbucks did not say which stores will be closed, only that they are spread throughout the country. But it did say 70 percent of those slated for closure had opened after the start of 2006.

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, July 01, 2008 | 07:47 AM

Welcome to the second half of 2008.

We begin the second half pretty much the same way we finished the first half: Equities under pressure in Asia, Europe, and judging by the futures in the US, domestically as well.

One of the things that us foolish idealists hope for is that the current set of crises will force the fantasy brigades to actually start interacting with that hypothetical construct known as reality. Perhaps by confronting the actual problems facing the economy, we can actually begin the process of repairing them by taking the painful write-downs and instituting the medicinal policies that make sense.

Such hopes are misplaced. The latest evidence of such comes from no other than Blackstone Group (BX) CEO Stephan Schwarzman. On the occasion of the private equity firm's one year IPO anniversary, Schwarzman places the fault for the current crises squarely on FASB 157.

You read that correctly: This was not the fault of incompetent lending to borrowers who could never afford to pay back mortgages; nor was it the fault of the rating agencies that slapped AAA on paper that turned out to be garbage; nor was it the responsibility of an MIA Fed that utterly failed in their responsibilities as the chief supervisor of the banking system; nor was it the liability of fund managers who in a misguided grab for yields bought billions of dollars worth of securities that they had no idea of the specific details contained therein.

No, it was the accountants' faults.

You see, those persnickety bean counters forced banks and brokers to actually write down paper for which there was no market.

Therein lies the foible of Schwartzman's Folly, for if you own marketable securities for which there is no market, then by definition, these are not really marketable securities.

How then to price all of this paper on the books? Why, just rely on the people who bought them in the first place! Never mind that they don't understand what they own, they failed to do their due diligence before buying this garbage in the first place. Do not acknowledge these folks have an enormous personal incentives NOT to mark this junk down.

You can trust them! They're good people.

Perhaps this helps to explain why Blackstone Group's stock is off nearly 50% since the IPO: The foolish shareholders of BX have been making the mistake of marking the stocks-to-market. My suggestion: Forget that they are a private equity firm, and consider instead your own approximate fair value interpretation of what the company is worth!

Attention fund managers: Here is my new Stephan Schwarzman inspired idea. Y'all should be buying Blackstone in the open market today at $18, and at the four o'clock close, be marking it at $36. That will be not only be your fair value interpretation of what it's worth, but it reflects a 100% gain instantly.

And, that's before the $.30 dividend.

Indeed, for those investors struggling with the current selloff, I suggest you forgo mark-to-market accounting at present, and instead start implementing mark-to-subjective-self-interested valuations. Your portfolio returns, and you're outside investors, will thank you for the immense improvements in your performance.

The VIX closed at 24.38 on January 16th, then 3 trading days later it (very briefly) hit 37.On

On March 13th, we saw a low of 25.65 and a close of 27.29, just two trading days later the VIX hit 35.60
it can spike in a hurry. The market was a good buy both other times

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Grasso is part of the "moneychangers" club of Wall Street. Its the Fiat Rule ... Who ever owns the Fiat ... Rules! Nothing can be changed until we evict the FIAT KINGS! That means the US FED and all the major US Banks. So far the US FED and the US Banks are doing a grand job of evicting their own balance sheets, but sad to say, US Taxpayers are on the hook because the FIAT KINGS own the Republican and Democratic parties. Who ever claims that politics don't effect the stock market is out to lunch and needs to buy a clue at KLUES-R-US!

We need to clean house in Washington DC and Wall Street not just go and rearrange the furniture. I can't count how many times we US Taxpayers have had to bail out the US Treasury and the US Fed and their banks! Literally Paulson and Dines are laughing all the way to their derivative laden banks!

I thank God I do not have a TV here and I don't have to listen to the McCain/Obama drivel all day!!! I doubt either one could balance their own checkbooks much less the $51tril mess(death spiral)they both created!

THE CELEBS VENT
Baldwin threatens to move out of America if Obama is elected and Sarandon threatens to move out of America if McCain is elected. I hope Obama runs with McCain as his VP choice so both of them have to move out! Please-e-e-e !!!! It should be illegal to allow celebrities "free speech"! My GOD they all talk too much as it is! That's the problem with America ... TOO MUCH TALK!

As an example the US Congress has held over 40 hearings on the rising price of fuel since Jan 2008!!! How much did those 40+ hearings cost?

TALK IS CHEAP AND SO IS THE US PESO!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Kaimu -

You're absolutely right about politics controlling the ST market/US PESO. A bonified circus; in the center ring is a bundle of band-aids used to compensate the ditch to ditch whiskey-dent navigational policies of a group of bumbling idiots, while the systematic pocket-picking of taxpayers takes place in the adjacent ring.

As Bill said: "The writing is on the wall". But IMO the magical reality is this thing isn't just going to spiral into the dust without at least a few inspirational gasps.

SBUX - Kaimu is right, I don't want to get stuck with this stock, never could understand where the value came from.