Wow1 All of the above sounds great - especially the first 5-6 items. You know I have been harping on # 2 many times before.

Thanks agin for all you efforts on behalf of this community you have created.

CALL TO ARMS –

I thought I would try to start a community effort in developing a list of stocks for future purchase. Last night, I looked at the Cara 100 plus a few more – let’s call it the Cara 100 Plus list – for dividend payers that have a 12 month price projection at least 30% higher than the current prices.

How do I determine a 12 month price target? Well, there are a number of ways to value a stock, but I use a simple P/E calculation that works like this:

We know that analysts, for the most part, stink at telling you when to buy a stock, but they are pretty good at estimating future earnings. So; let’s say that stock XYZ has 10 analysts that follow the stock. The 10 analysts have calculated the 12 month estimated earnings for XYZ - the low earnings estimate at $2.00 and the high estimate at $2.40 – the median is $2.20. I then want to know the historic P/E range; let’s say that it has been between 13 and 17 with an average of 15. Now I can take the low earnings estimate times the low P/E and calculate my low target, and so on.

Low = $2.00 * 13 = $26
High = $2.40 * 17 = $41
Average = $2.20 * 15 = $33

Now of course in the real world it isn’t that simple. For example; if the high price of oil will have a negative affect on the earnings of XYZ, the earnings will probably come down in the future if oil prices don’t fall. But, all else being equal, we can estimate a range if things are ok, pretty good or great down the road.

So; if XYZ is oversold and I get a technical buy signal, I will know whether or not it’s worth the purchase. As the stock rises, I will actually use technical targets like Fibonacci, inverted head and shoulder targets etc. and go from there.

The list I put together last night has stocks with; decent dividend, oversold technically (or approaching oversold) and a minimum price target (using simple analysis described above) of 30% higher than the current price. With more analysis and further trimming of the list, I would feel comfortable buying those stocks on technical buy signals.

The first stock I looked at was AT&T (T) because Bill mentioned it the other day. I think reasonable estimates for 12 months out would be a P/E of 15 and earnings of around $3.00 for a target price of about $45. The current price is $32.60. If target is reached, the capital gain would be 38% plus a yield of 4.9% = about 43% gain. I like it because of the dividend yield, lower volatility and strong credit rating. I will be watching for buy signals if nothing material changes with the stock. Risks include regulatory and pricing issues.

Other stocks that I pulled up for further study include (symbol, yield, capital gain potential):

DEO, 3.7%, 30%
MO, 5.7%, 35%
BC, 5.3%, 90%
DOW, 4.8%, 30%
GE, 4.7%, 40%
TOT, 3.2%, 30%
PTR, 3.8%, 35%
RY, 4.3%, 25%
C, 7.4%, 35%
DB, 8.0%, 60%
WTR, 3.2%, 25%

I like DOW if the price of oil tops and begins a downtrend, btw.

Financials? I don’t trust management to be truthful about their derivative exposure – maybe that’s why they are getting smoked and have a nice dividend currently.

Please do your own due diligence, I may have bad data or fat fingers.

Once again, I am not recommending purchasing any of these stocks, I am simply trying to start up a conversation. If the community could develop a list of a dozen or so stocks that we feel comfortable with the earnings stability, when the time is right, we will do well on purchases. Bill started with T.

Any thoughts on TGP?

GOLD – Here is the link to the annotated chart I put up a while ago:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96993160488&a=143001592

The day I posted this was where the trendlines end. You can see the ? on the price oscillator crosses (that hadn’t been confirmed yet). If I recall correctly, at the time, I said that if these were confirmed and the down trendline was broken the upside, that we could be looking for a break of the $960 level. Now we are overbought and approaching resistance.

Also, in prior posts, I have mentioned that I believe that the probability of a true trendline break increases after three days above (or below) the trendline. Note how we only had two days and it failed, only to rally above the trendline again. Whipsaw anyone? You may want to file that idea for further reference.

I love the idea of pictures and I CANT STAND threaded comments.

Would someone please help this pure technician to appreciate the probably effect of the interest rate rise on stocks, oil and gold?

Bill: first thank you for all you do for us! I think we'll never meet any other more open and useful forum.
I like the current way of the discourse, because - when I have time! - I can read everything, and find some interesting info I could miss.
But often I don't have a lot of time (new baby born here! and a lot of ordinary work) so, apart from your daily great comments, I'd like to have a quick way to see a list of subjects and a way to search them or the authors.
Since I like photography, I'd like to suggest to have a look at the forum here: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/
I think it's one of the best out there about the organization, with threads, list of comments, and the search function. I'd love something like that on BillCara.com
Have a great day!

Replying to posts from late yesterday:

Casey:

Families with money, no doubt, but I think the oligarchic Czarship Putin set up establishes a new set of families with power.

Peak oil is potentially happening right now. It's the point where production loses the ability to meet demand. It may be a temporary condition.

Let's go back to Ecclesiastes (Yin/Yang/Reversion) they both represent cycles, yes? Eventually the natural process of cycles will express itself. Energy production and life must follow those cycles. There must be contractions if there are expansions. Will there be other energy sources that expand to meet oil's contraction-maybe.

Norm:
Yeah, so what Russia's oil production goes down. It just means their black gold stays in the land bank longer and becomes more valuable over the long-term.

Also, not to be contrary, I understand about fighting for the man next to you-as I said-I spent a pretty fair amount of time around some very honorable people in the military-I also understand the personal bond. There are those for whom I would stand shoulder-to-shoulder (or at least I would intend my actions to match my words-never know until we get there) when the feces hit the ventilator. (Think that will pass Bill's censors?:))

Ask Casey about Ch 20: Society wants you to do all sorts of things for people you don't know-to support the society, not the individual. If everyone took responsibility for those close to them, then things would be fine. But society demands that we take responsibility for people with whom we have no common interest and for whom will not take responsibility for themselves. Hell, the government will pay you if you have a baby and give you an apartment to boot!

Corruption: What is it? How is it defined? It's defined culturally? I remember the ethics classes when studying international business. We pooh pooh certain accepted cultural activities (pay0ffs) as corruption. Coke and dope are illegal, but you can legally drink and smoke yourself to death. To paraphrase Anarchisis, If you took all the mores accepted by one culture and subtracted those not accepted by another, you'd have none.

Looks Like I have to expose myself a bit: There is a hunting forum I follow: http://dougva.proboards34.com/index.cgi

It has a private message function that allows registered members to establish profiles and have private messages forwarded to them through either their message board account, or to an email address. You can also keep your email account private.

Also, I will go out on a limb and say that I oppose the ability to censor any individual's posts in a blanket fashion. I feel this way not because I would be subjected to this action, although I would by some I know because even the lamest posters among us occasionally offer something of value, and more specifically and importantly, the idea of a democratic forum means being exposed to material that you may not agree with or favour. An example. Kaimu is one of the most eloquent and informed posters on here. Do I read the totality of every one of his rants? No I do not. Am I always in the mood to hear about honest money and dishonest government? No I am not. However, I would be improved if I did expose myself to the fullness of his intellect, and the thought that I or someone might choose to self-censor his or anyone elses comments in a blanket fashion strikes me as being antithetical to the democratic nature of this forum. In a democracy, we sometimes are exposed to material with which we are indifferent or even disagree.

And another thing...IMHO, the notion that this discourse should be tailored to and conform to the dictates of a very specific subgroup, namely children who are being tortured by their superstitious parents (er, I mean, homeschooled) is, given the adult nature of the subject matter and the overall compostition of the audience, patently absurd on it's face.

g034

Excellent work! Hope you contiune with more post like that. Very imformative [at least to me]!

Thanks...

nemo- corruption is institutionalized in most countries, including ours...i stand by the comment that our drug interdiction policies (directed at supply) support organized crime...

there are inane and contradictory policies at the top levels of our government that lead to the totally predictable failure of DEA efforts...africa, south america, iran, afghanistan-> the State Department has trained mercenaries in all of these areas to engage in conflicts on behalf of US political agendas...when the conflicts end, what are these young men supposed to do? they're twenty-somethings accustomed to walking around with their cojones slung over their shoulders/strapped to their waists, intimidating the local populace, and taking what they want...are they going back to making $3/hr supersizing McNachos and McEnchiladas at the local taqueria? hell no! they are going to work for the local cartel doing what they do best, who offer them $3000/month and all the drugs/booze/women they can handle...

every dollar the DEA misguidedly spends lines the pockets of crime syndicates, and for each dollar that actually eliminates supply-> that simply drives prices of the commodities up, which draws even more criminals into the game...

how many DEA agents have sat in foreign bars looking into their third or fourth glass of tequila and come to the realization that their real job amounts to providing ancillary support for organized crime?

All of the suggestions look great. It's nice having options.
Thanks for all the time you spend.

These are funny:

In case you missed it. Here is the Washington Post's Mensa Invitational, which once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition.

The winners are:

1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time.

2. Ignoranus: A person who's both stupid and an asshole.

3. Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

4. Reintarnation: Coming back to life as a hillbilly.

5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

6. Foreploy: Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

7. Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.
8. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

9. Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

10. Hipatitis: Terminal coolness.

11. Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)

12. Karmageddon: It's when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, and then the Earth explodes, and it's a serious bummer.

13. Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you

14. Glibido: All talk and no action.

15. Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

16. Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

17. Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

18. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.

The Washington Post has also published the winning submissions to its yearly contest, in which readers are asked to supply alternate meanings for common words.

And the winners are:

1. coffee, n. the person upon whom one coughs.

2. flabbergasted, adj. appalled by discovering how much weight one has gained.

3. abdicate, v. to give up all hope of ever having a flat stomach.

4. esplanade, v. to attempt an explanation while drunk.

5. willy-nilly, adj. impotent.

6. negligent, adj. absentmindedly answering the door when wearing only a nightgown.

7. lymph, v. to walk with a lisp.

8. gargoyle, n. olive-flavored mouthwash.

9. flatulence, n. emergency vehicle that picks up someone who has been run over by a steamroller.

10. balderdash, n. a rapidly receding hairline.

11. testicle, n. a humorous question on an exam.

12. rectitude, n. the formal, dignified bearing adopted by proctologists.

13. pokemon, n. a Rastafarian proctologist.

14. oyster, n. a person who sprinkles his conversation with Yiddishisms.

15. Frisbeetarianism, n. the belief that, after death, the soul flies up onto the roof and gets stuck there.

16. circumvent, n. an opening in the front of boxer shorts worn by Jewish men.

gO34

Excellent idea...so much so that I printed out your comment and plan to spend the weekend in study.

All this turmoil must end, and how to be positioned then is of paramount importance.

I've been daytrading the past two months, which allows no time off during market hours. But I'll be happy to contribute/research during the evenings.

Thanks again for you post.

I've got a GREAT way for users to block other users. It's perfect: it doesn't require any extra effort on the part of Bill or his team, since it won't need to be coded into Bill's new site... it's called:

"move your eyes down the screen to the next post"

2nd ave.: I wholeheartedly agree with you. I had friends in both the DEA and Immigration. They used to care, now they just collect their checks.

bill,

check out disqus.com for your commenting system.

Aurator

Are you able to come away with any valuable insight from McHugh nightly posts? To me at times it sounds like gibberish. And as for his thoughts on whether the DOW will fall or rise the next day, I get the impression that he feels strongly either way.

If you are able to come away with valuable info from it, maybe you could put it into layman terms and post it for the group. Thanks!

CNBC is so much better without Erin Burnett, isn't it?

The forum management software used by websites like www.texags.com is one of the better I've ever seen, and utilizes many of the features you mention above.

Bill,

I guess I'm a cheap date, liking the current system just fine.

I do like the idea of a day/swing trader forum as Skype is nothing but trouble on my composter.

Thanks for all that you do.

Regards

BH- LOL, you're getting carried away with the Mensa (re)definitions...

2nd
Do you think you will be adding to UAUA today?

I always thought I would buy NVDA if it got back around $12. It is there now, but I thought it would go down there when the Dow was at 10,000...

I am holding off on it for now. Do I take my profits in UYG now. I missed out on $700 yesterday, and it turned into a $350 loss. It is back up to a profit of $250 now!

I think I will just sit tight until the EOD...

To all -- remember that EOD is 1:00EDT today.

2nd: I also agree with your drug statement.

I do work in the drug and treatment field. The current policies of the US are not about protecting society (if they were the dollars would be organized much differently) The current drug policy is purely about economics and protecting certain cash flows.

Once when working for Drug Addiction and abuse treatment services for a little while. I assisted in a research and prevention project. The project showed from the data: That for every dollar spent in educational prevention programs, the state saved 10 dollars in treatment services. It then showed for every dollar spent on treatment services, the state saved 10 dollars from legal and prison costs.

The government labels prevention as being keeping the drugs out of the country or throwing people into jail. We showed neither of those two styles of effort were cost effective... education works, local community and social interaction work.

Large scale drug enforment... works for other agenda's such as what 2nd post about.

This is one reason I stopped being a hermit and started helping people on a one to one basis. That truly works. Trying to change society at the overall level... That's pissin in the wind.

Bill, I agree with the Disqus suggestion for the simple reason that, if you make a comment, and someone replies to that comment, the system publishes the reply under the relevant post, and then emails the original poster with the reply. As it is, I'm not sure everyone knows you are going back in, and inserting your comments on their comments, later in the day, plus it would be nice to be able to follow a "conversation" in an organized fashion, as it runs down the page. On Disqus, you can see all the topics, or "conversations" at once, but the relevant replies are usually attached to the original post.

Cara 100 Update:

NUE - Upgraded to Sector Perform @ CIBC

----------------------------------------------------

Note to 2nd:

Actually, I'm a founding member of DENSA. :^)

QT- no plans to add to airlines beyond what i have...

My bad--I should have noted above comment applies to US markets only.

BH- you're too much, man...LOL

Woooow they're puking energy stocks. DUG is on a tear.

Look on the bright side. With the 4th on its way, I can look forward to at least three whole days where ESLR won't drop more than 4% each and every day.

But who knows, the way things have been going maybe it will manage to do so anyway.

Well S&P, Nas, IWM all broke support.

XLF & DJI holding for now, but if they crack, I'll get out of UYG. Ah, well...

Thank you G034

A long time ago when I was a real greenhorn I bought just 100 shares of a cheap stock that was crashing into the close. Since then I have learned a thing or 2 about this business, and I can tell ya, it never works out. My sympathy for he who did.

There's an axion in this business. Show me someone who comes in with a lot of money and he and his cash are soon parted. Show me someone who comes in on a shoestring and he has a chance of succeeding.

Wow. TGP is getting awfully cheap.

n2s- (as mentioned last night) i can testify to watching multiple 4% drops in PTR, UPL, UBB, RIG 6-7 years ago...don't let it get to you...

go34 - I have shared your enthusiasm for the systematic use of oscillator, trend, and confirmation; it both fits and amplifies Bill’s approach to trading prices, imo. The addition of your fundamental screen seems to me to take Bill’s “100" list in a positive direction.

A couple of comments: (1) some of your work on future earnings estimates used to be provided for free by Zacks ( but I haven’t checked recently) and possibly the use of his site’s info might save some time (or might not); and (2) wrt dividends, I may be overly cautious, but I like to check to make sure that earnings cover any dividend - if not, then I check to see if the company is borrowing in order to pay that dividend - just part of DD.

Hope this helps. I like your ideas.

2nd please tell me you sold that crap

shark - Thought you'd like Jesse's comment re trading on a shoestring:

"There is a time for all things, but I didn't know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his. play an intelligent play. I proved it. Whenever I read the tape by the light of experience I made money, but when I made a plain fool play I had to lose. I was no exception, was I? There was the huge quotation board staring me in the face, and the ticker going on, and people trading and watching their tickets turn into cash or into waste paper. Of course I let the craving for excitement get the better of my judgment. In a bucket shop where your margin is a shoestring you don't play for long pulls. You are wiped too easily and quickly. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages. I was only a kid, remember. I did not know then what I learned later, what made me fifteen years later, wait two long weeks and see a stock on which I was very bullish go up thirty points before I felt that it was safe to buy it. I was broke and was trying to get back, and I couldn't afford to play recklessly. I had to be right, and so I waited. That was in 1915. It's a long story. I'll tell it later in its proper place."

Good morning Bill
Thanks for all you do here. The above suggestions are all good; options are welcomed.
I will agree totally with FattyArbuckle:
move on and scroll down if one doesn't like a topic/post.

Thank you for sharing your experience and allowing
me to embrace preservation of capital and trading prices, not companies.

Stu

BullHunter,
TGP has been in my sights, too.
As a master limited partnership, I need to find out how this position would sit in my 401k trading account. I want to keep things simple if possible and not generate extra paperwork!

Oldgoat,

I can count on you and Jesse for sage advice. So many beginners try to measure their success in this business by how much they make, and that notion is totally ass backwards and will doom you to failure. The relevant question is, how much can I not lose?

Someday when the mood is right I will share with the group shark's rules for not losing your shirt!

And dudes, I'm no expert. What amazes me is after doing this for a few years already is how much I am learning every day and how much I have yet to learn and do not yet know.

kp84,

Aye, there's the rub.

As i understand it, master limited partnerships even cause headaches for Roth IRA owners.

Whatever happened to good old dividends? :^)

Regards

shark- let's give it a year...summer 2009-> if you're right, i'll donate an appropriate book to the westport library in your name...

Vote for threads. As it is, comments that belong together are sometimes scattered throughout the blog without a clear reference to the previous one, and it's difficult to sort through the blog to find the original idea.

as someone who reads this daily but doesn't comment often..... i feel very unknowledeable compared to many of you.... i would like not to have to put in my name and password everyone time i post which is usually much less than every two weeks. thanks ann

Good morning Everyone: Love all the comments, whether I agree or not....even when I'm called names it's alright with me.

2nd: It's simple supply/demand, right? If you make it rare, then prices go up and chance takers take chances increasing supply at high prices. If the interventionists (DEA?) would simply get out of the way, we could license/tax and the mystique and curiosity would wane, as would the price and motivation.

We have a historical example. What happened to the rum runners and Al Capones after the 18th amendment? Now you can buy licensed and taxed liquor for a fraction of Al's price.

Our government biz wiz's at work.....

BTW, anyone here seen my arse? I've had a hunk lopped off this AM.....:>)

Cara 100 Update:

GE - Target Price Lowered from $33 to $31 @ Sterne Agee.

wish i could add to longs right here...

Quick check-in from Phoenix.

Bill, I suggest a community recommended book  section.  A poster could provide a short synopsis of what the book is about; there also could be ratings (stars, 1-2-3) provided by other community members who had read the book.
Bill, regardless of the author, I appreciate yesterday's posting of "The paradox of our time . . . "  Very timely from a personal viewpoint visiting, tending to a dying friend here.  Thank you for all you do. 

2nd,

Let's give what a year?

BAC below 22; 52-wk high=52.96. Daily RSI(7) per Fido = 9.29. Depending on how the descending triangle is drawn on daily chart, downside target somewhere between 16 and 24. Current div yield=11.36%. Meredith Whitney says they'll have to cut/Ken Lewis says she's wrong and div is "safe"--who do you believe? What would announcement of a cut--or of dilution from a "capital infusion"--do to the price? (rhetorical question) And would the subsequent (presumed) drop represent a buying opportunity? (not rhetorical)

Can't monitor positions today due to field work all day.

So I sold out my DUG at 29.07, basis was 26.77. I think it's got room to really run in the medium term but trimming exposure in this market environment is not a bad option either. 8.6% in a few days is acceptable for a short time frame trade.

Goes back to the discussion yesterday where Allen described his trading and identifying medium term macro trends and riding them with enough conviction to get through the drawdowns (this is how I played the homebuilders collapse with the positions being underwater many times until the ultimate collapse, I was right but it took almost a year for the endgame to finally come round).

I think demand destruction in oil is one of those medium term trends and hence DUG should perform well, but my time frame on the trade was intended much shorter (and hence I was trading much larger size with a tighter stop than I would for a longer term position that would need to potentially withstand large drawdowns).

Good luck to everyone on this truncated market day, and enjoy the long weekend to my fellow Americans. Apple Pie, Baseball, fireworks, oh my.

shark - More from Jesse:

"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"

shark "learning every day"

It's like life. The University you never graduate from. We're all there with you in the classroom.

Have to run; have a great day everyone!

I am starting to see where Ferrari's and nice houses come from boys, and it aint the long side.

Correction: I did scalp over $400 on SKF early on. Off'ed it when my spidey sense saaid jump, which was uncharacteristcally accurate for once.

Hope everyone is hanging in there, looks like we're limping back a bit....

craig- enjoy the scuba (actually, it's only sNuba at this point)...it's not like you jumped into the deep end last fall and are now getting pulled out by the rip tide...nothing wrong with a little underwater experience, IMO...

Good thing I'm just aiming for a Mazda, then...

Bill I would be very interested to know if and when The Euro/UK Cara 100 will be revealed.
Cheers, John.

Looks like the market was run down at the open to take out stops and will The Smart Money manage to cover shorts and run the market up nicely before days end?

Would seem a good strategy to cover a lot of shares and leave The Crowd chasing the subsequent counter/bear rally?

With some of the prices I am seeing it would seem pretty risky to leave profitable short positions on the table to bank for an immediate downward continuation next week.

shark- they don't come from the short side or the long side...they come from being part of the corrupt side, which also enjoys being called the right side...

Feedback on the Site Design:

Been participating in 'net forums of various kinds since the mid 90s usenet days.

On a site like this, I'd say no to the specialized/divided forums. Many times I pick up something reading through the entire discouse that I would not have if it was segregated into broad topical forums.

Ditching typekey is great. It is a horrible application. It sometimes functions here at work, never functions properly with my Mac at home.

Threaded comments is ok, but in longer threads people don't often re-read from the top (only wanting to see the new stuff) and will often miss replies to things they have written. And when it is set up for threaded and people are responding that way, if you choose to view it in chronological, sometimes the replies don't make as much sense because the writer is expecting the comment to appear directly below what they are replying to. So I would personally skip threaded comments if it were my design.

user contact forms: good.

image/file attachement: good.

RSS feed from other sites: clutter.

comment rating: not particularly useful or wanted IMO.

blog hosting for users: also not needed, plenty of free places for blog hosting and it unnecessarily ties the Cara name/brand to something you have little to no control over (i.e. the blog writer's content). But maybe that would keep "Priuer" from spamming the comments everyday with the blogwhoring.

gotta run.

Wonder if we get a retest of DJ 11400 today

2nd,

Email me I have more to tell you. Secret stuff.

anyone looking at natural gas plays? i've managed to do quite well on CHK calls the past few days. looking at them again as its coming back down.

shark - you can always reach me at evadn2[at]yahoo.com-> don't worry about sending secret stuff, i won't forward it to more than a few hundred people...;)

Shark: NSA/FBI monitors all your emails anyway

Regarding threads:

I actually prefer the current chronological ordering of comments and replies. The scattering of opinions in temporal sequence reads as if one is overhearing dispersed conversations in a large collection of traders with interacting views. I don't want an orderly progression of linear logic, but prefer the hovering cloud of challenges to my own often errant bias. Many times it has been a chance remark that might have gone unnoticed in a thread that caught my attention and nudged me to question my current predisposition. For me, the ready interplay of such diversely sincere opinions is the most valuable aspect of forum member postings.

This was not a boring day b4 a holiday. I'm gonna hit the practice green now. See you guys next week. And Bill, say hi to Cousey for me.

Bill, threads are ok. Ratings???....beginners and slow learners(me) might be embarassed and unwilling to comment. But, you do what YOU want. All I want is place to read your comments daily and those who willingly post as they trade.
Lately, I have been steadily and slowly losing money. Since mid March when I was up 7-8% on the year and oh so proud.
Thanks to Nexa for ZNN.V. I lean towards green and water stocks...so thanks
Peace from North Puget Sound

Bull Hunter-
Re: Dividend hunting

That's why SeaSpan SSW is on my watchlist.
Not a dry bulk shipping co, but a container ship owner that pulls in steady revenue streams from long term charterers.
The chart looks ugly to me.
This company has really nothing to do with the Baltic Dry Index, but maybe it's price trades sympathetically in these volatile times.
Also, it's growing by building more ships, which the major cargo carriers are doing as well. This may or may not put pressure on their ship leasing business model.

Stu

Re MLPs in IRA/401k
I think the issue was discussed once before. As I recall it depends on the amount of income from the MLP, and it's source. The tax people refer to it as "unrelated income" or somesuch term. I think if it exceeds $1000 p.a. then you've got problems. Not really a lot of benefit to putting MLPs in tax sheltered accounts anyway, as the MLP is keeping the tax low by, in effect, converting current income into long term capital (hopefully) gain by paying out as "return of capital" which then lowers your basis. Tricky to keep track of everything, especially if you average into a position. I'm not an accountant, so please get advice from someone who is before you put money at risk.

Re Site mods:

Alaskan Pete's comment about protecting the Cara brand is spot on. IMHO the first question should always be "Will this modification enhance, support or weaken the brand?"

I suggest that the KISS principle applies here, too.

Thanks, Stu.

I'll check 'em out.

Regards

RH,
Re: you taking up motorcycling again

Riding and living to ride again is a bit like risk management in trading. Here's how I survive:

-- My Norton is slow and simple, like me. The gas (investment) goes in here and the power (return) comes out there. (Many Caraistas seem to fully understand derivatives, options, and seemingly hundreds more trading permutations. I don’t… yet.)

-- Even though I’ve been riding most of my life, I still take riding courses from people who are more skilled than me. (Lessons from the Trader Wizard and this blog help me avoid crashing my portfolio).

-- I only ride when I’m calm and focused (see Bill’s many warnings about keeping one’s emotions in check when trading.)

-- I check every nut, bolt, screw and fitting (due diligence) before I ride.

-- I keep my bike out in the country and ride mostly on un-crowded back roads. (I can’t think of a trading metaphor for this one, but it’s been highly instrumental in keeping me alive.)

And remember, the most stable position for a motorcycle is lying on its side. I try not to be caught lying under it.

Cheers.

Wonder if there is forced liquidation in energy and or gold stocks by a hedge fund in trouble.

Crude has not "cracked" yet.

Make that:

"laying", not "lying"

I highly recommend Disque as well. I recommended this many months ago. It lends itself to having a direct conversation with someone. Anyone answering to you post will get an email. Also you are able to reply via email and a reply post is generated. Of course you can reply via a direct link on a posting as well. Again, highly recommended.

QT - I do understand McHugh and his charts. Just about anyone whom I've ever sent them to, can't. However his predictions as to what will happen over the very short term are not reliable and have cost me quite a lot. He will set you up with a projected wave count, and when it doesn't follow, it's "oh, then we are still in the ast wave count and it's consolidating". Backward looking methodology, but that the way this technique works. If I knew of a better source of this kind of projection, I would investigate. At least McHugh understands the only thing holding up the market from an all out crash, is the PPT.

Weiss has sent a crash warning with DOW target 7200.

Hi Bill,
My 2cp on the potential upgrades:

Register one time only here - YES!!
Specialized forums / tag all posts - I vote for tagging posts, as one of the great things about the current format IMHO is the flow of multiple subjects and thoughts.
Threaded comments - same as above. I think threading would dilute the "flow"
User contact forms - YES!!
Upload a picture of themselves/bio page - fun :-)
Ability to attach files/images to comments - yuppers
We could pass comments straight to SiO2’s Skype system - great idea!
Aggregating RSS feeds - this would be good, as it would create a "portal" aspect to the site as well as the discourse.
User Blogs - ditto as above

Bill,
For me, the richness of Cara Community comes from the "community". Therefore, in general, modifications which enable engagement and inclusiveness are good. Also, size does matter! I find that it is informative and entertaining to scan up to a couple hundred comments each day. If that number were to increase to 1,000 I would not want to read them. One enhancement could be to allow Cara Community members to link the url of their Facebook or MySpace profile as an alternative to linking a blog link or instead of creating a Cara Community bio page.

GFI - Trying hard to fill the gap from 12.045 on June 26th. Today's low (so far) 12.14; now 12.25.

Bill, I like your blog site much the way it is, I read most all the comments, especially the short, concise ones. I've learned a lot, and still soaking up the knowledge. IMO, everyone who blogs here has contributed tremendously.

g034 - I love your ideas for rating equities, I was contemplating this subject yesterday. Equities are dynamic, yet a line must be drawn in the sand somewhere. Again, thanks.

OG - Thanks for the 1pm heads-up!

Shark - Secret stuff? Had my curiosity going for an instant but I'm terrible about spilling the beans. I wan't to know, but you shouldn't tell me...

"link the url of their Facebook or MySpace profile" - I wouldn't touch either with a 10 foot pole. Sorry Fred, I'm not 20 anymore.

In all the chaos, I don't think this has been posted here yet. It probably account for the recent run (news of this PR was likely leaked, which is fairly annoying!). Anyways - sounds like operations are off and running at a good pace -

Wednesday July 2, 4:52 pm ET

Western Goldfields Second Quarter Production on Target

http://tinyurl.com/5xwvo6

Second Quarter and Year-to-Date Highlights
------------------------------------------
Gold production:

- Gold produced was 28,524 ounces, which is at the high end of the
forecasted range of 20,000 - 30,000 ounces of gold.
- Gold sold during the quarter was 22,760 ounces at an average price of
$893 per ounce.
- Total year-to-date gold production was 37,590 ounces and year-to-date
gold sales were 32,720 ounces at an average price of $905 per ounce.
- Gold production has increased to over 600 ounces daily and is
expected to remain at these levels for the remainder of 2008.

The Mesquite Mine has achieved the following:

- 1,926,738 tons of ore at an average grade of 0.037 ounces gold per
ton, containing 72,840 ounces of gold, were placed on the leach pad
during the second quarter.
- 3,195,474 tons of ore at an average grade of 0.029 ounces gold per
ton, containing 91,800 ounces of gold, were delivered to the leach
pad year-to-date.

Quite the comedy team on Bubble Vision today:

Larry Kudlow vs. Robert Reich

Perhaps Monday will bring Mike Tyson vs. Stephen Hawking?

:^)

For anyone new to the site--if you are searching for a site offering free realtime quotes and charts on US and Canadian stocks, check out VantageWire.com.

hey ok,

back from mexico last night,
my travel from the resort back to toronto reminded me of "the longest day", the 1950's remake of the Normandy invasion's first 24 hours.

12:30 shuttle to cancun airport took 2 hours,
2 hour wait before a 3 hour flight to charolette,
2 hour wait for a 2 hour flight to buffallo, after a delay with mechanical problems w/ the plane a wait through customs and 1 hour waiting for bags, rush through the border into canada and a 1.5 hour ride home in the rain, dropped off my travel buddy before a 30 minute drive to my place.

finally got in some 16 hours later when i first left and had the best 9 hours sleep ever.

glad to be back and seeing gold make its move.

im also glad to see so many comments on the site, i have so much info to go through but i really like the proposed changes bill has in the works.
this site keeps getting better all the time, im grateful to have joined when i did to see it take shape.

back to business now,

Mini-crash in canroys and other oil/ng trusts todays.

Aurator

Thanks for you take on McHugh.

Oil Up........Dow Up

Fee Fi Fo Fum....I smell the Plunge Protection Team.

Bill, I like seeing all comments. I can scroll past any. I would like being able to rate the comments as just to have an easy way to express my point of view as the 'liked this comment? yes no' deal that is seen other places. The idea of responces being linked is interesting, but as I come back and forth during the day, the top down method works better for me. Thanks to all who post. Thanks to all who make it possible.
Best Regards. and to the usa residents, happy revolution day.
PS your book is great. a fine read, and reread, and underline.beginners like me can learn a lot from it.

Again smell forced liquidation. Not like we are going to stop using massive energy any time soon.
Strange activity lately tells me something big is going to happen...

If it aint broke, don't fix it. Even Typekey, once you're signed in and if you're using a PC isn't good or bad, I hardly notice it.

I am not much for conspiracy theories ('cept for the single bullet theory, roswell and government complicity in 911, not to mention the possiblity that Jesse Livermore may actually be the reincarnation of Genghis Kahn and that there re little green men living in my closet) but I do sense the hand of the good 'ol PPT today. It's hard to believe everyone's dyong to own stocks going into a bear market summer holiday weekend, isn't it?

And if this one's true to form, the bear market and the recession (which is really a depression) will officially be deemed retroactively to have been over before they began. I love democracy.

Assured Guarantee AGO (bond insurer) is crumbling today. If this rally gets going I don't think it will last long. There are too many stocks with downward momentum.

Shark said he has made most of his money on the short side. Me too.

ECB raises rates, US releases phony job statistics, USD up... Makes no sense. I think the move in the dollar and the dive in gold were engineered. I'm paring many positions and loading up on the double inverses again. Going to keep faith in the PM miners, and doubled CEF.

Could the Euro be weakening because this rate hike threatens European economic growth as well as the monetary union itself? If so, the Euro may actually trade inverse to the ECB rate.

The market was beaten senseless for the last couple weeks - so the Smart Money backed weak hands against the wall yesterday. Its genius - everyone is leaving for their holidays early and won't be watching the market closely. They set stops or just plain sold out at yesterdays close out of fear of Black Thursday.

Today the MM crashes stocks at the open (on less volume than they would need on a regular market day) to take out remaining stops and then covers remaining shorts and drives the market back up.

Come Monday, this leaves The Crowd w/o any stock (it has been stopped out and taken) and chasing the subsequent rally.

I just wish I'd gotten my hands on the pre-release copy of this work of genius.........

Perhaps the next chapter is the oil fallout and subsequent "reason" for a market rally?

Birth/Death model added 177,000, half of those in Leisure and Hospitality. Without the adjustments, the job losses would have been 239,000!

Would love the ability to rate posts and/or to filter out posters. Once a poster makes inappropriate comments, be them racist, sexist or simply containing vulgar language, then it's too late and a flurry of other responses follow from different authors, it becomes too difficult to skip. IMO, these should not posted in the first place as the site that is read by thousands of all colors and religions and nationalities. I currently use my own software to filter out these posters today.

The "in at stock XYZ at $x.y" without explanation add no intellectual value, but every time someone asks to move them elsewhere they are shut down.

Gov't stats are so warped...

Got out of UYG & into SKF while XLF was meandering for a while. Earned back some of my losses by the end of the day, and then took half a position back in UYG, as neither the DJI nor the XLF have cracked yet. We'll see what Monday brings...

To all, have a great weekend!

ALOHA !!

ON POG
My take on today's POG hit was first said yesterday, since today is the official FRIDAY TAKE DOWN, since July 4th is a holiday. Fuel got added to that fire when the ECB raised rates but then issued a statement that they were "neutral" on further rate hikes, which totally negated a measly 25 basis point hike ... 25 basis points is a drop in the bucket and the FOREX focused on the "NO FUTURE RATE HIKE" part. Right now the Euro and POG trade in parallel ... totally misplaced ... but they do. So Euro goes down ... its Friday ... plus US jobs(BLS data minus the "L")! Presto Changeo ... POG DOWN! At some point the Euro/POG link will break ... Does anyone really believe the USA added any jobs? Please-e-e-e !!!!

What we now see in plain sight, thanks to the ECB statement, is that none of the global central banks are tough on inflation! I mean come on ... WHATS 25 BASIS POINTS???? Its laughable!!!

As per Bill's suggested possible improvements I quite like the tagging idea (although consistency will be reqd) or an enhanced search. Great to find all the posts of someone you know is interested in the same stock as you and can find their discussions over a longer period of time. Also being able to find all the posts on a given company would help tremendously as well.

Thanks again Bill (and Bill's team) for all you do to make this a great resource for us LG&G (little guys and gals). Not to mention all the fantastic contributors. Thanks.

Stv

Warning issued by World Bank...

World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick has called on leaders of the G8 as well as the major oil producers to act now to deal with surging food and energy prices, warning that the world is now "entering a danger zone."

"What we are witnessing is not a natural disaster -- a silent tsunami or a perfect storm: It is a man-made catastrophe, and as such must be fixed by people," Zoellick said in the letter made available to Xinhua on Wednesday.

"I urge the Group of Eight countries, in concert with major oil producers, to act now to address this crisis. This is a test of the global system to help the most vulnerable, and it cannot afford to fail," said the World Bank chief.

"For 41 countries, the combined impact of high food, fuel and other commodity prices since January 2007 represents a negative shock to GDP of between 3 and 10 percent," he said. "These numbers translate into broken lives, and stunted potential. For the most vulnerable, especially poor children, they mean malnutrition, reduced resistance to disease, and too often death."

"Record oil prices and high and rising food costs threaten a growing number of countries with rising poverty and social instability. Already we have seen food riots in over 30 countries, and unrest over high fuel prices is spreading. The urban poor are especially affected by the double hit of food and fuel," he warned.

http://tinyurl.com/53mnzr

ALOHA !!

A serious central bank rate hike that would make the World take notice and blow a hole right through all this fake US government CPI BS would be a 200 basis point rate hike! THAT WOULD END THE DEBATES!

Will something like that ever happen? I doubt it!

None of the global governments now in power can afford to stop "spending". That is the only way they maintain their power and that is the basis of FIAT! I can only see one way that spending will stop. A monetary collapse!

A few comments on the new site.

* Disqus - I looked at this service, and while it is nice, there are a few issues. One is that if we want to have user accounts for features other than just commenting, Disqus has it's own user registration. So people might have to register twice. You can only view comments threaded, and we've already seen a few people comment that they prefer flat comments. Also, while we can download them, we don't store the comments on our servers...which makes it so we can't integrate them with the website (such as a search system that searches both comments and Bill's articles). Basically, I think it's a good system if we just wanted a quick way to support comments, but it gets in our way if we want to do something complicated.

* Threads - So far, it looks like we have more people against threaded comments than for them. I'll keep an eye on the discussion as it goes further. Since some people like the idea of threads, I may make it an option but off by default. FYI, when you have an account, by default the system will mark "new" posts in the threaded view so they are easier to pick out. Hopefully anyone who uses threads will realize that it isn't the default and therefore will be careful to indicate what they are replying to (if not, I can disable threading or maybe find some way to indicate what comment it is a reply to, even in a flat system).

* Profiles - Looks like people like this idea. I'll make sure people can post URLs in case people want to link to a MySpace/LinkedIn/Facebook/whatever profile, or to a personal blog or whatever. Probably I'll just support URLs in a "About Me" text area, since that would provide maximum flexibility.

* Comment rating - Sounds like most people don't care for this. Maybe we'll implement a simple system just so that we can have a page listing the highest ranked comments over the last week or two that people can visit to make sure they haven't missed out on any real gems.

* Forums - So far, it sounds like people prefer to have all the comments on the posts. On the other hand, if we increase the number of comments much, we may have to use forums so the list of comments isn't too overwhelming.

To be clear, all the ideas are very much flexible at this point. I'll keep reading your suggestions, and hopefully after a few days we'll put together a more cohesive view of how everything will work.

- Jeff

ALOHA !!

Oh Please-e-e ... Since when has the World Bank or any bank ever been concerned about "poor children"? What a great "stand-up" act Zoellick has going. Where did he perform at the IMPROV?

The WORLD BANK and all BANKS ... ARE ... the problem!!!! Its not a "man made" disaster it is a BANK MADE disaster!!! Mainly CENTRAL BANK made ...

Some people in the USA are beginning to take notice of "government"! I heard on the radio that FOX BIZ did a poll and an overwhelming 53% of those polled said that high gas prices were caused by the "US government"!

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!!

In last night web broadcast, Peter Schiff commented that the rate of economic unraveling and collapse of the US Dollar is even faster than he had envisioned when he wrote his book, Crash Proof.

He predicts the DOW and the POG will probably attain a ratio of 1:1 or worst case 2:1. Dow 7500, Gold 7500... he says he does not know the level, just that they will meet. 2:1 seems like a slam dunk to me.

He advises owning foreign dividend paying stocks that do not earn their income in US Dollars. Also advises some energy and gold and mining stocks, but not a 100% allocation in any one sector. Some of the callers have gone 100% gold.

If you have software that can filter out posters on Bill's blog today, you know way more about computers than I do my friend. Also, it sounds like, at least for you, whatever problem there may be is being addressed. One thing though...

I'm a white dude. If I were to take offense every time some black guy makes a joke about white people (Eddie Murphy, Chris Rock) or to get escited everytime popular culture spoofs my ethnicity (White Men Can't Jump, Spike Lee, etc...) Where would I be? I'd be living in a cocoon of my own creation, wouldn't I. I like to think that Spike's Jungle Fever somehow enriched my understanding and appreciation of the world around me. I think Chris Rock serves a useful purpose, showing us white dudes another perspective right? So I guess the fact that you already have software that filters out posters demonstrates something about you, doesn't it?

Question authority? I don't even RECOGNIZE any authority, negating fully the need to question the little gerbils.

shark,

>If it aint broke, don't fix it. Even Typekey, once you're signed in and if you're using a PC isn't good or bad, I hardly notice it.

The problem here is that TypeKey is broken. :) In general, once a month or so we get a complaint from someone who simply can't log in. Or can only log in from certain computers. Things like that. I don't know if you've noticed, but Bill's last comment was on 2/12 (ever since then he's been just adding his comments as an edit to other comments). He didn't change because he liked the style -- it's because HE can't log in. When the blog author can't log in to post a comment, and I can't do anything about it because the authentication system is external, it's a real problem.

It's possible that it's a problem on our side, but I can't find anything and we'd have to pay for support just to find out if it is. I'd much prefer to just go to our own system so if there is a problem I have the full power to find it and fix it.

- Jeff

ALOHA !!

Jeff ... If you and Bill keep this blog the way it is I would be okay with it. If you want to make changes then fine so long as you make changes that you think will improve the readership. I am no BLOG expert ... I mainly just show up and post a bit and read then leave ... I'm not here 24/7!!

Hawaiian style ... IF CAN CAN IF NO CAN NO CAN!

Bruddah ...

The World Bank is there for ADM and other big corp buddies, nothing else. Their way of stopping countries from growing their own food by selling cheaper food there for a few years, thereby putting the locals out of business, then raising prices on food is exactly the drug dealers model of taking over an area by offering lower prices for a while....They are not nice people. To see them talk about the 'starvin children' would be laughable, but it is just sad that so many people will eat it up....

ALOHA !!

shark ... You have been DOMINATED by "AUTHORITY" your entire life and you do not even know it. Look in your wallet and you will see your life long master! HA!!!

Jeff,

I'm sure that I'm not alone in the opinion that you're doing a great job here.

BTW, your RSI Calculator is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Have a great weekend.

Regards

Guess I'll throw my 2 cents in about censoring, in any fashion, blogger's comments. I'm for free speech up to a point. When a person is young, they might try to push the envelope in discourse, ala George Carlin many years ago (who I loved). As you get older you realize what's the point when less colorful words, done in an artful way, can still get the point across.

You can't yell "fire" just for the heck of it in a crowded theatre, even though it would be a form of free speech. Likewise, it seems there should be some control on public weblogs in the areas of crudeness or just plain bad taste. All you have to do is go to a stock message boards, to see way out of control speech and how awful it can be.

This board is run very, very well...jmo

Aloha Brother,

It's a never ending struggle of course, but surprising as it may sound, I am actually not ruled by the almighty peso. I avoid materialism for the most part, have tried to avoid going into debt and most important, I never married a shopaholic Stepford wife (The Stepford Wives was written in my hometown about the women of my hometown). Looking in my wallet btw will yield disappointing results typically. Most of my money's tied up in mortgage backed securities and other auction-rate investments sold to me by some nice guy on the phone, said he was from UBS, says my money's safe:)

Jeff,

I am willing to bet that Bill can't log in on his Macintosh, right? I had the same problem, I got rid of it and got a pc and it's all working fine now. Somehow Typekey and Mac's don't get along.

G034:

Great boatload of analysis on future earnings.
I'd like to learn to do this myself - would you share with us where you found the data on forward earnings and P/E estimates.

Toby

I like the blog pretty much the way it is.
I simply scroll past items that don't interest me or where I find the content lacking in my concept of good taste.
Tags could be useful - perhaps with a set menu (that could include a fill in box labeled "other" to cover the OT that enriches the blog) which would also be a way of providing threading.
Overall, just very happy to be here. Once again, thanks to Bill and all contributors.

SiO2
"The "in at stock XYZ at $x.y" without explanation add no intellectual value"

I do this some time. will not post like that again

I like threaded comments; makes it so easy to follow the original comment & all comments adding to it.

And, bio pics are good - if most do it then I would, too. Not crazy about avatars (I think that's the right word).

Ratings are good, too.

vinod- hold on...personally, i have no problem with your posts, even it they occur after market close listing your entries/exits for the day...i would disagree that they add no intellectual value- to the contrary, i am able to read between the lines and glean a great deal from them-> there can be a million reasons to take a position, the main point of interest is that you have taken a position...granted, the addition of a 'reason' might be helpful, but reasons are often not immediately 'accessible' to the conscious mind..moreover, in the rush to post a reason one may actually end up posting something misleading...not everyone has the time to reflect and explain-> i'd rather see vinod's market activity in print than have no knowledge of them...JMO...

Not to shut down discussion of the "in at XYZ" posts, but some of us not only use TA and fundamentals, but in day trading mode we use a bit of gut/sentiment, which only makes it to a really fast chart and which is harder to catch.
2nd is well known for using his gut for entries and exits and while some may not find this useful, some of us have made good money on our gut/feel of sentiment. I don't think it is accurate to say they add no value, especially in the day trading environment we have been in. I find them helpful and if not used on the fly they give me a chance to bring up a chart and see what that entry/exit looks like technically, esp. if it's a well known/sound company.

One man's trash is another's treasure.

one example: vinod posts a buy for 100 shares of ESLR at 8.76...granted, if vinod were a stranger, that post would be of no value to me...but i know vinod's history of posts on this blog, i know his past history of trades, and i know he has local knowledge of the company-> i don't expect him to post all of that as an addendum to a one-liner...on the other hand, i learn a great deal from his decision to buy (again)...

another example: cosell reports staubach goes with an onside kick with the cowboys down by 6 and 1 minute remaining...what does that tell you, even with no commentary whatsoever from cosell? it tells you everything...if vinod buys ESLR @ 8.76 earlier today, then based on what i know about ESLR and about vinod, it tells me something, and i'd like to know if/when it happens...

vinod - +1 to 2nd comment above! I find real value in your (& his) postings. Keep 'em coming! ~ OG

Jeff - If you want to add threads, that's fine, just as long as I can continue to get a flat "stream of consciousness" view of all remarks. I scan all postings (every one!), ignoring those which are not of interest to me.

When in skype, I use the settings feature to hightlight postings I know are likely to be of interest--e.g., those by 2nd_Ave EEMtrader Craig bOss evadn2 Bill Cara" vinod, et al. Perhaps if there was a similar feature in the blog itself those who want to pick & choose could do so.

As to a separate section for day-trade postings, I'd oppose it; I like things the way they are. I'd be afraid of missing all the other good stuff if I spent all my time there. For example, I posted a remark yesterday (or day before) re GFI encountering resistance as it touched the bottom of it's descending triangle on daily chart. This remark was based on a 5-month or so chart pattern, which happened to hit a key point a day ago. Another poster (Craig?) chose to take action based on my remark to close a position he'd opened that morning for a 3.8% intraday profit. Since then, the stock has dropped from 13 to 12.11. So....where should I have posted my remark--in the day-trade section (I was not day trading the stock) or in the long-term section (where Craig might have missed it)?

Ditto also to Craig's remark above!

and without comparing vinod to soros (i don't want to insult vinod here;), who would have a problem with knowing soros went in on ESLR @ 8.76?

Where's all the money going?

http://tinyurl.com/54g63w

Who's trying to get it back?

http://tinyurl.com/5xxxgd

And my hearty Thanks to OG for posting that little jewel! I was not on the GFI chart that day as I knew I had a good entry but OG's knowledge tipped me off to resistance. I brought up the chart, drew the trendline and saw immediately it was time to go just like OG said.
He also added that he thought it would fill the gap near 12, and guess what it was doing today?

Ditto for Vinod and ESLR. He posted his entry and it pulled back to $7 something which I knew was a REALLY good entry when I saw the LT chart.
In the next couple days it went to around $12 where I cashed in my chips....then it pulled back to $8.30 where I reloaded. That was where quite a few Caraistas got on board and it ran up again. BTW, take a look at about 6 mos of ESLR.
Notice that range trade? I got in again last night AH at $8.75. Without Vinod's post, we all likely would have missed those trades.

Same for Seamus posting CHSCP, and (please forgive me) someone posted CNSL (it may have been OG here too) and I loaded up on the monster div from the previous 52 wk low ($13.82) down to 13.45, then it ran to the upper 15's where I stepped off, and now is getting back to reload territory (low 14's today).

Some of us keep track of these little details in our noggins and use them to our advantage, or at least add them to our watch lists for another day.

Remember not too long ago 2nd and I were catching overnight drops in GFI and scalped the bejesus out of it on Premarket entries alone.

This may not fit everyone's style, but even the buy and holders could have added to their gains if they had time to keep an eye on them and were open to hearing about it.

I'm not listing all of them either. 2nd's upper $17 entries on SNDK before it went to $30 something is another. Almost all of those were one liner "adding (or scaling into) to whatever at $0.00" posts. I wouldn;t say those added no value, they sure did for me.

just to add,

if there was a way to add a feature that showed your profile w/ current positions, noting the day and price of entry, and you could update it with your sell price,

if the system could keep track of your trades it would help viewers know the kind of trader you are.

J

Really Vin,

Why on earth would you change what you're doing because 1 person mentioned he didn't like it? Who do you trust more? Him or you? Who's opinion is more important? His or yours? If all it took was 1 person to veto any idea, nothing would ever get done anywhere. Take me for example...If I took public opinion into account I would have already jumped off a cliff about 50 times already:)

shark- cat only has nine lives...so you're one cool dude...

My 2-pesos re: The "in at stock XYZ at $x.y" without explanation " I very much appreciate this kind of post, in addition to a majority of the others.

The street talk, explicatives, TLA's (three letter acronyms) shorthand, etc. helps me stay alert, learn and interpret the "roadsigns" realtime. These are all undeniably valuable inputs.

Even a 60hz signwave contains vital intelligence, think of where we'd be without that for cryin' out loud.

Shark...not to mention public opinion would have been against jumping, unless it was into a large enough drink to hold a Shark....

Bankers....gotta love these crooks.
BofA is informing my wife that her purchase protection is good for $50 limit, and the travel/car rental coverage is discontinued.

I got this one today....can you see where they care for me SO much? LOL!

"Dear Craig,
Customer Number: XXXXXXXXXX

ING DIRECT is committed to helping
you save your money.

We noticed you have not been actively saving your money with us and we want to help. Here are some great ways to make savings a habit for the long term:

Pay yourself first with an Automatic Savings Plan. You can have a fixed amount of money regularly transferred from your external, linked checking account to your Orange Savings Account. Simply login to your account at ingdirect.com and click on the 'Automatic Savings Plan' icon. Choose the amount you want transferred, how often you'd like it moved, and the start date.

Direct Deposit part of your paycheck into your Orange Savings Account and watch how fast your funds will grow. Just provide your employer with your account number and the ING DIRECT routing number: XXXXXXXXX. Or, print and complete the Direct Deposit Form, which you can access by logging into your account at ingdirect.com and selecting your Orange Savings Account.
We plan to review your account again in about 30 days. If you haven't started to take advantage of the great ways we can help you save, we will close your account. At that time, your account balance, plus any interest earned, will be transferred back to your external linked checking account.

If you have any questions, please call us at 1-888-464-0727 from 8 AM to 8 PM, 7 days a week.

Thanks,

Jim Kelly
Chief Operating Officer
ING DIRECT"

Dear Jim,
Ki$$ my sorry &%#! When you pay at least the rate of inflation and say 3.5% let's talk, otherwise send me any remaining funds in my acct. and kiss me goodbye. You couldn't keep up with Emigrant Direct when I was using online savings, what makes you think I give a hoot about your bank? I expect to see you and the rest of the losers from BofA, Citi, and probably WAMU at my local freeway offramp with signs saying, "will work for food, please help recapitalize my bank so I can keep my plush job that I don't deserve".

Bankers...can't live with em' and can't kill em.

Thanks to 2nd Craig and everyone

I have list of CARA stock that is under buy alert
I also have list of local company stock
And DOW stock
I play around them, since I do not have TA knowledge (learning) I do look at short position/put/call ratio/years high-low etc.
But I usually follow my gut feeling about my trading.
If a stock or option is mention in this Bog by someone I do check it out and some time trades them. Like GFI/TER etc.

I used to post my monthly result but after receiving email from some one I stop it

Since I started trading inform February 2008. I am up a lot, and I am also confused, is it easy like this to make money in stock or is it pure luck.
This weekend I am going to spend lots of time finding out how this happen

But, I must say I got inspiration from 2nd and Craig also people at work do enjoy shark attack post

Bill,

You have done so much already that it would be difficult for me to make a suggestion box drop and I'm an IT director! I really like the blog as it is and would still welcome changes no matter what they were. I know that isn't helpful, but keep in mind that the real asset here (aside from you and your team of course) is the loyal readership and contributors you've already attracted. My only suggestion is to make the changes such (slowly) that there isn't too much disruption in the daily discourse.

You've already got the best stock blog on the web IMHO.

"It matters little the color of the cat, so long as it catches mice."
--Deng Xiaoping 鄧小平

Pretty brutal sell off in the last two sessions in the winning sectors....gold,oil,oil service,nat gas,canroys,Brazil,etc.

Manipulation,profit taking, forced selling to cover losses in other sectors,foreign interests selling and repatriating currency? Could be one or multiple reasons. We can only guess. Definitely strange with oil hitting record highs and gold ramping up until today.

My guess is either plain old profit taking or selling winners to cover losers. Fundamental story still intact.

It does seem though that many are sensing an unkown impending doom both within and outside the investment community....by those not afflicted with chronic bozone.

A good holiday weekend to all

Thanks Bill

Book just came in.
Will finish reading this weekend
This is the first book you wrote and this will be first book ever I will be studying about market

Craig - Can't take credit for CNSL. But thanks for the props re GFI! I've still gotta find my copy of Edward & Magee. Gonna go look now.

Coming in late to a discussion as usual, but I don't mind it when someone posts a trade in real time. Especially when it is from someone I know.

Indeed, given my history I rather think I should do this more often as it would be of great value to anyone contemplating an entry or exit -- they would have a reliable, low risk, real-time signal to profitably take the other side of that trade.

vinod - Once you finish Bill's book, grab yourself a copy of Edwin Lefèvre's "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", the thinly disguised biography of Jesse Livermore. Written in 1923 but remains in print; large parts still relevant today. Plus, it's an easy and fun read. Make sure you have a highlighter handy--in fact, you may use up two or three before you reach the end.

http://tinyurl.com/6c5lh5

Re: Deng Xiopeng

Do y'all feel like cat food?

:0

Ah! Seems some of us (me) need to learn how to use the blog tools we already have.....

Here's how those little one liners work: CNSL
Thank You BH!

"Craig,
Any opinion on rural telecom, CNSL ?
Looking mighty cheap today with huge divy.

Regards

Posted by: Bull Hunter at February 22, 2008 11:14 AM [link]"

It's always a good idea to bend the spines of a few trading books prior to throwing large amounts of cash at the stock market. However, I liken reading about trading, which I did a lot of prior to actually trading, to looking at a map of Vietnam prior to getting dropped out of a Huey with an M16 into the middle of the jungle. It's the map, not the territory.

Bush Tours America To Survey Damage Caused By His Disastrous Presidency

http://tinyurl.com/5ooplv

Happy 4th weekend all - enjoy

can we depend on J6P's inTAXication with 1200 US pesos to revive a mezza morta economy run by HB&B jamooks?

Allow me to throw a few suggestions, somewhat reluctantly (I mean gotta mess with good thing very carefully if at all).

1. Flat vs threaded. There was a mention earlier of dpreview.com forums (yeah, I am a photography buff too). They have option for a participant to toggle between flat and threaded views. Bill indicated that "This can be turned off, for those who like the current system" so why not. It can even be useful for a single user - if he just browses day's content he goes by flat view, and when he wants to track certain topic discussed or post answered - he switches to threaded.

2. Break forums by topics. I will have to join "do not break" camp. I for one wouldn't be able to determine where I should post general trading concepts and thoughts. My personal timeframe is mostly intraday but most things I've got to say about trading are not time frame ddependent at all. As long as in a course of discussion of a particular stock a poster indicates his outlook (minutes? months?), shouldn't be a problem.
2a) Maybe, just maybe... the only separation worth considering in my view is separation between capital markets discussion and social equity discussion. They are often go hand in hand so even that is questionable. I personally enjoy having it all in one bowl but if majority prefers having "nuts and bolts of trading" separated from "let's go to barricades", this is the only breakdown I would bother with. Even with that I would observe for a month whether things remain fluid and natural, ready to roll it back if separation makes things feel labored.

3. Idea wit tags/ratings probably should be given serious consideration. Unlike forums where each thread has title and is devoted to certain topic, this blog goes day by day, not topic by topic. Even with those forums moderators often make most important threads "sticky", so they do not sink into oblivion over time. I mean, someone posts description of an interesting method, approach, technique, or answers a question that is getting asked regularly. Obviously it's something that is worth keeping easily accessible and searchable. How to save interesting and useful posts from being lost - not sure of exact mechanics but tags and ratings will probably provide the foundation.

So, you're a young cugine trying to make your mark. Don't be a cafone your whole life! Oh, che bruta when your trading losses pile up! So you got clipped on a couple thousand shares of BSC earlier this year, and more recently, you thought ABK was a buyout candidate instead of a candidate for the morgue. And the commissions you're paying make the local shylock look like he's running a charity operation. Well my friend, take heart. It's time to do a little spring cleaning (mainly so your wife don't find out!). You needn't spend your whole life as a poverett. Don't be a mortadella. Get smart. Read Bill's book or else. If you don't, you will truly go gira diment trying to figure out this market. To do anything else would be oobatz. And don't forget to give me my taste.

shark- how many different ways are there to put someone down in italian? true connoisseurs, the sicilians...the chinese, of course, have a different way of doing it-> they invite you to a banquet and say good things about you...LOL

I have no idea, I'm only half Italian, but half's better than nothing!

"True connoisseurs, the sicilians...the chinese, of course, have a different way of doing it-> they invite you to a banquet and say good things about you...LOL"

Yeah, but the problem is the food poisoning if your "taster" isn't along or the ride home where they want to fill your ear with lead.....the offer you can't refuse. :>)

I like Shark....I don't care what everybody else says.

craig- no, they kill you with kind words and endless "gan bei"s (http://tinyurl.com/5lobcp)...chinese alcohol torture- by the time the evening ends, you've spilled everything you know and don't want anyone to know, and they have you by the cojones...

Rev. Shark said after Tuesday's "important" bottom.

Of course, as soon as we bounced, we had the inevitable rush to declare that the worst is over and the bottom is in. Many on Wall Street love to play that game, but the real question you need to ask is whether they are helping you make money. Have they helped you navigate the market successfully with these timing calls? How many times have they made incorrect bottom calls already? Do you jump in and out with each one of these flamboyant predictions? Is that really a good market approach?

I plan to join trial subscription of few sites. Will post here as soon as I do it
My first choice is to look at Jim Cramer’s auction alert portfolio and find out what he is unto

Old Goat- re Jesse Livermore, i can't get away from the fact that he made AND LOST several fortunes...makes me wonder if speculators in his vein require a certain kind of personality to make it work, and whether you would consider him a successful speculator if you look at the whole picture...(his suicide...well, who knows whether that has any relevance or relationship to trading)...

I really surprised no one mentioned this

Nymex Raises Margins for Comex Gold-Futures Contracts by 15%
NEW YORK, N.Y., July 2, 2008 -- The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. announced today that it will change margins for its gold futures contracts, effective at the close of business tomorrow.
http://tinyurl.com/58wxun

...or this:

"NEW YORK, N.Y., July 1, 2008 -- The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its crude oil and related futures contracts, beginning at the close of business tomorrow.

Margins for the August to December 2008 crude oil, crude oil calendar swap, and crude oil financial futures contracts will increase to $9,250 from $8,750 for clearing members, to $10,175 from $9,625 for members, and to $12,488 from $11,813 for customers. Margins for all other months will increase to $8,750 from $8,500 for clearing members, to $9,625 from $9,350 for members, and to $11,813 from $11,475 for customers.

The margins for the August through December NYMEX miNYTM crude oil futures contracts will increase to $4,625 from $4,375 for clearing members, to $5,088 from $4,813 for members, and to $6,244 from $5,906 for customers. Margins for all other months will increase to $4,375 from $4,250 for clearing members, to $4,813 from $4,675 for members, and to $5,906 from $5,738 for customers.

The margins for the NYMEX MACI index futures contract will increase to $1,817 from $1,742 for clearing members, to $1,999 from $1,916 for members, and to $2,453 from $2,352 for customers."

I read couple more of books on Jesse, aside from Reminiscences. While it's hard to tell the truth from myths, a lot of facts are well known. My impression is his suicide had nothing to do with trading, nor did he die broke as some myths say. As far as I understand he left a 5 mil worth of estate which in today's money is, ummm... a lot... He did have dark periods of mental ilness, depressions, and some personal turns of his life were quite hard to handle. Trading wise, he probably had a troubles refraining from trading when he needed to - too much love for the process itself with some carelessness sprinkled on top..

Nonetheless, his trading ideas were very sound.

2nd, the only alcohol torture I've endured was Mexican tequila torture....but I spilled everything I had for several hours where you normally hang your cajones.
And still didn't want anyone to know....but that was long ago.

I think shifting the timestamp and "posted by: --- " to the top of the post from its current position at the bottom can help those who like to skim or speed read the long web page at the end of the day. Especially for long posts, it's nice to know who's talking as you start to read, rather than having to scroll down to see. Adds colour/tone, rather than being an absolute filter.

European Markets down 1% , help we need the PPT.

http://tinyurl.com/59hojo

Saturday Morning Coffee: Focus on Market Dynamics

A brief review of sentiment, my proprietary bullishness index, miscellaneous charts, and so on. At least you gotta watch the video.

Look at how these posts are all numbered....

This makes referencing & follow up so mych easier

http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/06/30/monday-morning-%c2%bfque-tal/

http://tinyurl.com/57ax2a

Ron...I know it feels like Saturday, but it's actually Friday. Coffee tastes even better on this day.

lol on that video. "on my deathbed I will receive total consiousness...so I got that going for me."

Happy fourth US Caraistas!

Jeez, it IS Friday.