Anyone for a 100 billion dollars?

Full marks for eBay entrepreneurs for stepping in where forex traders have lost count of the zeros being added to the Zim dollar every few days. How about paying US$83 for the new Z$100 billion bank note! Although the novelty value of the Zim note is surging, the sad truth is that the note is not worth enough to buy a loaf of bread.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/65w3uu

Interest rates.
Some time ago I was sure that the critical period of European growth (if any!) would force the ECB to reduce the rates. It wasn't so, and it's still difficult for me to believe that the ECB will raise again the rates. The focus of attention is always about US, banks and subprimes, but in the meanwhile the European export-oriented countries (Germany, and the club med) are suffering a lot, and the confidence indexes are really very low now. Maybe the fight against inflation will help Germany, because it can benefit by the fact that the strong Euro makes the inefficient club med (Italy and Spain) less competitive without the currency depreciation weapon. But it seems to me that now we are close to the limit of this policy for the strong Germany too. To me it looks like the European bonds could be a good investment waiting for the clear sky in the stock exchanges. What's more: if the Central Banks are successful in reducing the commodity prices, a real deflation can start, easing the worry about inflation, even if the high level of prices and the delocalization we had in Europe will make it difficult to start a real recovery of the economy for a long while I'm afraid.
And then about US: Roubini wrote that the agressive reduction of rates by the Fed will avoid that this recession turns into a depression. But, as far as I can see, the low rates and the low Libor do not result in really low rates for American loans and company debts, unlike what happens in Europe where the interest rates (for loans and company debts) are closer to the Euribor. So who is the real beneficiary of low rates in US: just the big banks and brokers? And what can this do to the real economy? Not to mention what it did to the commodities. I hope that you can help me to understand better what's happening. In an Italian blog I also read that maybe now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can make some more money, thanks to the bigger difference between the Fed rate and the rate of interest of loan. If it is so I suppose that saving them, the US taxpayers will pay, and the beneficiary is still someone else...

there must a way for the cara community to arrange a shipment of $100b notes to the US, where i will be happy to split the profits from selling them on ebay...of course, i will donate all of my profits to buying loaves of bread...(it's truly sad)...

Valgold and West High Yield
Would anyone be so kind as to give any updated detail about them?
I bought too early when the share was about 5 times higher than today. Then the share went down, and I didn't get out (I wasn't a good trader, but it was useful, I'm learning!). Reading their web sites, it seems to me that maybe Valgold has a lot of diluition with new shares, and both do not have any real important drill result. But if there is any 'geologist' there, maybe can be more informative. Thanks in advance.

Recognize these lines?

how newsletter writer's stand forever at the precipie of an explosion in the gold price, a bottoming of gold stocks relative to gold and the reasons why Jr. Gold stocks are underperforming:

GOLD:

gold will zoom if the ECB's mexican standoff against the dollar and Eurozone inflation results in an ECB rate increase.

gold got crushed by the ECB's attempt to cool markets with a rate increase, once the hollow nature of this inflation fighting stance is revealed for what it is, i expect gold to take off.

gold took it on the chin as lower oil prices dragged down the commodity sector

the focus on oil and its downward price spiral seems to be affecting gold which seasonally should be a strong period

jewlery demand will increase as indians and chineese realize that they will be unable to purchase gold below $900 for the remainder of the year if not for the rest of this commodity bull cycle.

asians are pouring money into gold...

asian central banks are secretly buying up gold as they attempt to lighten up on US treasuries...

mid-east soverign wealth funds are buying gold in exchange for oil...

iran is on the verge of creating a Euro-denominated oil bourse...

George Sorros says this is "insert cataclysmic reference here" the world has ever faced.

gold could go to $2000 on any collapse in the banking system by 2014...

gold prices to rise through 2009...

GOLD STOCKS:

how can you profit from these troublesome times? subscribe to the "insert generic gold-centric name" newsletter for our analysis of select gold stocks that stand to gain exponentially during the coming commodity bull market...

gold stocks should outperform gold over the long run as investors awaken to the reality that their currency is being destroyed and the only true value lies with reserves in the ground

gold stocks are at historic lows relative to the price of gold, (while we continually mock analysts who mistakenly call a bottom in financials) we are calling for a bottom in gold stocks here... again...

JR. GOLD STOCKS:

jr gold stocks are suffering from maniuplation and short seller's fraudulant schemes to scare investors out of their shares. (its too bad manipulation in every other market resulted in skyrocketing share prices intended to goad greater fools to invest, somehow constant underperformace seemed like a better way to bilk new investors out of their money...)

jr. gold stocks are suffering because of current credit conditions...

jr. gold stocks are suffering because of the high cost of crude oil..

jr. gold stocks are suffering because crude oil is falling taking the commodity space with it

jr. gold stocks are suffering because of gold-backed ETF's

jr. gold stock "A" is suffering because such and such newsletter writter issued a "sell" rating

paul vaneeden is an a$#hole for recommending Miranda gold so much on BNN...

Sprott really likes this stock, they know a thing or two about resources (Sprott precious metals fund down over %20 year to date, at 4 year lows, John Embry has stopped making specific stock recommendations in his monthy Investor's newsletter)

PDAC will highlight some up and coming gold producers on the brink of huge discoveries, write their information down using this Val Gold Sponsored pen, Baja Mining sponsored note pad and try some pound cake baked by one of the chesty E-Trade girls at our booth....

Zimbabwe - greedy management destroyed the bread basket of Africa. Wall street's con men are saints compared to Zim's ruling class.

sorry, re-posting to correct discourse:

David- re airlines:

moved to 60% on UAUA @ 7.20, and rounded out positions in airlines with DAL @ 7, both pre-market this morning..(fwiw) Standard and Poor ratings for UAUA/DAL upped to 3 stars/5 stars (buy/strong buy, target 7/12) on tuesday, which means nothing, but diversifying with at least positions is a good idea...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 25, 2008 8:38 AM [link]

with at least TWO positions...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 25, 2008 8:39 AM [link]

as always, keeping position sizes reasonable, and NOT recommending the excitement of trading the airlines to anyone...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 25, 2008 8:41 AM [link]

shark- so you want to be a fund manager? good choice, man..

http://tinyurl.com/3y2whm

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 25, 2008 8:44 AM [link]

UAUA- the pre-market 20% off the table at 8.30...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 25, 2008 9:34 AM [link]

USO down 1.5%...

UAUA- another 20% off at 8.49...

David- did you catch that? UAUA hit 8.81 before diving back to 8.20...DAL hit 7.73 before i had a chance to hit the sell button, back to 7.35...

My intuition says the spike down and reversal in the financials (banking index) means the selloff is over for now in these names. Banking index was down 2% a few minutes ago and is now even.

DJIA/XLF fake-out to the downside?

moab- we're on the same wavelength...

FRE @ 7.94...

USO down 1.8%...

UAUA- clearing out at 8.64...

USO down 2%...

USO down 2.4%...

airlines cleared for takeoff!

DAL off the table at 747..i mean 7.47...

TRIN just dropped like a rock, bullish...

Freddy off at 8.50...

eh, spoke too soon again.

vinod- back to 100% cash...send me an email when you're ready...

Cara 100 Update (Final):

Target Price Lowered:

ERTS - from $60 to $58 @ Kaufman Bros.

Target Price Raised:

ATVID - from $34 to $38 @ Kaufman Bros.
QCOM - from $60 to $ 65 @ AmTech Research

FWIW, High risk . . . Russian stocks

BP fiasco (CEO leaves Russia, threatens lawsuit) affects markets negatively.

VIP, WBD both down today.

From technical viewpoint (reference Bill's book, page 247) both have had 10 week avg slipping below 40 week avg. VIP slipped below back in May and WBD a few days ago. "very good sign to sell" per technicians.

No positions.

Bill,

I always dislike tax. Why do wealthy people seek tax heaven in the first place? because they feel they pay too much. if the government lower the tax, they don't have the incentive to seek tax heaven.

On the other hand, I always feel we are powerless. There is no counter balance against the government's power and the government is hijiked by politicians and special interest groups. And the power is abused. In US, parents even can not discipline their kids. And I always ask Americans how you expect your next generation grow up?

I don't really have the incentive to apply for my green card. I think keeping my Canadian passport should be good enough.

[Bill Cara note: There will always be an offshore business where (i) personal assets need to be protected from frivilous lawsuits or prying eyes (ii) mind and management of the asset manager is truly offshore--not just a nameplate offshore and managers in NY or CT (iii) (non-US) ex-pat's who pay tax on domicile, like British Commonwealth countries, for instance, where the ex-pats like to live/work in countries where no income tax is levied on locals or foreigners, individuals or corporations [government fiscal management is based on duties and other levies], (iv) other. There are many families in the world who have lived in new countries for generations without proper documentation for one reason or another, many of them having been persecuted by their former country, and these are also candidates for offshore assets. The issue that the US Senate is pursuing is the evasion of tax, which is a different issue. More tax is evaded inside the US than by Americans taking assets offshore and also failing to meet their filing responsibilities, but that's a different issue also. Another 'different' issue is how the US tax system helps foreigners avoid and/or evade taxes in other jurisdictions. The US Senate investigators ought to realize that they cannot have their cake and eat it too. But, beyond all the above, the concern by Americans ought to be, as I pointed out this morning, whether or not the US legislators are headed toward currency controls to help them pay for the govt deficits they are running up. How would anyone feel if they were told the IRS will get access to all credit card transactions, safety deposit boxes, and that you can spend up to but not more than say $10,000/year on a foreign vacation or on expenses to maintain a second home in a foreign country? Americans have to be concerned about their loss of liberty as legislators move to plug the dike that has so many holes (read Michael Panzner's books to get the big picture).]

buying more VLO.

Buy 200 Shares of UYG
etails Filled at $20.67

Seamus: AEMUK, that’s right 3 AEM puts (sell to open).

Thank you for your expanded thoughts. I know AEM fairly well and was fortunate to be able to sell it @69.58 earlier in the month. If the stock was put to me at 51.80 that would be fine as I would view the entry as favorable. I’m well capitalized for the trade, thank you for pointing that out.

I think that gold will not trade below 850 at worst, like Bill, and some other smart people I know their number is 810. For this number to hit they would really have to rally the dollar hard, possible.

In any event, if AEM rallies I may just sell (buy to close) for the appreciation.

If AEM is put to me, and the market looks very weak, maybe I would just sell 300 AEM and close trade. I have to see what the market is doing at the time.

AEM is now down -29%, down 7 of the last 9 trading days seems excessive. If put to me at 51.80 that would be -35.88%. From there I would say worst case scenario is -50% or 46.10. If it would drop to 40, I would be very uncomfortable and would most likely have sold well before.

Anyway this is a new territory for me and I would like to begin selling puts on stocks of interest and writing calls on stocks held for income and higher rate of return.

The market is very gnarly right now. At its current rate of decline it may be put to me tomorrow.

Thanks again for sharing.

Buy to Open Put 2 Contracts of -OEBTN
Filled at $7.30

Number2: One more example of the value of buying junk in a market like this: bought LEN yesterday at 7.2 and just sold at 7.85. Certainly not something I want to hold LT, but with the debate over the housing bill going on, there's bound to be volitility in the builders, with possible spike up once it gets thru Congress. Still hold HOV because it hasn't hit my sell limit.

Sorry, meant to write LEN bought @ 11.20 and sold at 11.85.

FWIW......There is some absolutely stunning short interest numbers for SWC.......almost 6 million shares sold short in the matter of a month!

short interest history

http://tinyurl.com/6abc4v

Settlement Date Short Interest
7/15/2008 11,182,597
6/30/2008 9,177,504
6/13/2008 6,837,558

Telestar3d

Thanks for the reply. Your comments indicate you fully understand the implications of the trade. That's why I posted the follow-up to clarify some of the risks. I know you have experience from prior posts, but as stated in the past we're all students in the game. Glad you have a plan; sounds similar to mine.

I follow and have traded AEM and realize its ups and downs. From a short term perspective, their overall production will be down per their recent press release. However, future years look very attractive. Costs of doing business and POG will be big drivers.

An attractive trade IMO would be SU puts that Bill has mentioned in the past. I've been looking at December over the last few days as SU has slipped. The window of opportunity may be short.

As always to everyone, please DOYDD.

Once again, UYG is acting as an ultra short instead of an ultra long. What's a 1% difference, really? But who's counting...

"Why do wealthy people seek tax heaven in the first place? because they feel they pay too much. if the government lower the tax, they don't have the incentive to seek tax heaven."

And how much is too much? It seems to me people will always feel they pay too much in tax.

What I find amazing is that people will claim the U.S. taxes the rich too much while our budget deficit sky-rockets. In the meantime, they have no problem with huge expenditures on military, which the U.S. undertakes for the primary benefit of moneyed interests.

So the rich find tax havens while the poor and middle class are left to suffer diminished social services and a disproportionate share of the tax burden.

cyderman, re. cara100 list at http://nexalogic.com/cara100.html. Scrolling seems to be another Vista issue.

If you are on Vista I am told that if you right click on the Firefox icon in tray, properties, choose compatibility with XP makes the scrolling work. Thx. to Charlie and miadhach on Skype.

I was flipping channels on the radio yesterday and I heard a John McCain sound clip where he criticized Obama's non-support of the gas tax holiday.

McCain declared that since Obama was not part of the solution that he was part of the problem.

I couldn't decide if I should laugh or cry. I truly hope that voters do not buy into this.....it is really a scary thought when highly regarded public officials are spewing this kind of rhetoric. I fear that McCain truly does not understand the seriousness of America's spending problem.

Correction: the icon should be on the desktop when clicked. Thx to miadhach again.

"So the rich find tax havens while the poor and middle class are left to suffer diminished social services and a disproportionate share of the tax burden."

Actually, I don't think poor people pay tax. They have all kinds of tax benefit.

The people in the worst situation are middle class. But if they elect what they vote, they just get what they deserve.

Believe it or not. No matter how the government claims they want to tax on rich people, change the tax code. Rich people always find a way to avoid it because they have resources. The one left to hold the bag is still middle class. That is the fact at least for me. So increasing the tax is not the right way to do.

Another point I want to make is what 's wrong to be rich? Why richer people get higher tax rate? From one perspective, is it discrimination? Right now, I have the sense that poor people have the right to tax the rich people. On what basis? because you are poorer? Since when, rich are shameful and poor have every right? And then rich get punished by higher taxes? Is that robbery in a sense?

if we tax on the consumption basis, like pay as you go, i think poor people consume more resources.

Please don't think I am rich and wealthy. I am just a normal guy and scratch for a living. but something I am confused about the tax system.

Speaking of taxes, sales tax in Cook County (Chicago), IL is 10.25% as of July 1, 2008. Believe it's the highest in the U.S.

Doesn't matter if it's a gallon of milk or a new car. 10.25%.

And don't think you can purchase that car elsewhere and avoid the tax. If you live in CC, you pay!

"Actually, I don't think poor people pay tax. They have all kinds of tax benefit."

Nonnsense. Unless the poor get their gasoline and food for nothing, they pay tax. And sales taxes are regressive.

"Actually, I don't think poor people pay tax. They have all kinds of tax benefit."
Posted by: apollo7 at July 25, 2008 11:38 AM

Doesn't matter what your class is in CC. Poor people pay 10.25% sales tax on a gallon of milk like everyone else.

Take it you are talking about income taxes, but there are more than just income taxes. As it is, rich have a few benefits too. Look at the hedge fund operators who complete short term trades and only pay 15% on gains while the rest of us pay minimum 28% and as much as 35%!

To meet ambitious hybrid production goals, Toyota and Honda depend upon the success of 4 small miners of rare-earth element "lananthanum" until lithium-ion batteries become feasible sometime after 2012.

BTW, the US automakers are toast!- In 2007, GM sold 9,000 hybrids. ALL were recalled for defective ni-hi batteries. NONE of Toyota's 250,000 hybrids sold that year suffered battery failure.

These are the conclusions of the EXCELLENT trade-press writer, Jack Lufton. Read this if you're interested in trading Toyota or rare earths:

http://tinyurl.com/65zgr2

Taxes:

I vote for a flat tax.

The form would be as follows:

Income: $100,000

Tax rate @10% x.10

Taxes due: $10,000

Remit payment to U. S. Treasury.

CORRECTION: "Lanthanum" - the rare-earths have strange names we'll only get to know as the Chinese restrict their export. (China controls 95% of production of these elements used in high-tech batteries, motors, magnets, disk drives, flat screens, ipods, etc.)

"Take it you are talking about income taxes, but there are more than just income taxes. As it is, rich have a few benefits too. Look at the hedge fund operators who complete short term trades and only pay 15% on gains while the rest of us pay minimum 28% and as much as 35%!"

is that the way as I state that rich people always find a way to avoid tax or pay less tax? if you want to close the loophole, you just make tax code more complicated, which benefit lawyers and accountants.

So my point is that tax should be simple and low. Take the power from the government. Just my thinking.

Why kid ourselves? Many people will pretend, lie, cheat and steal to become wealthy and powerful. Should we be surprised that many wealthy and powerful people will pretend, lie, cheat and steal to grow still wealthier and more powerful?

Democratic republics succeed only to the extent that ordinary citizens stay abreast of developments, foster prudent policies and demand accountability of elected officials.

A majority of the American public has grown lazy in their indolence and picayune in their self-interests. "We the sheeple" deserve our current predicament and shall remain there until we demand better of ourselves and accountability of the shepherds.

The decision to spend is a decision to tax either a regressive tax (sales, etc), progressing (US income tax), or hidden (inflation).

The income tax is based on the ability to pay (rightfully so IMO). We may argue that the rates are to high or that we pay to much, but in the final analysis, we have to support the spending.

The problem is spending, a symptom of the problem is taxes

Offshore TAX Havens - No one sector of the US economy, no matter majority or minority, can be expected to shoulder the entire federal tax burden.

While I don't condone the use of waterboarding, and find it's reference both revealing and offensive, I do agree that many fundamental changes in US federal regulatory policies are long overdue.

I'm beginning to discover how extremely antiquated federal policies are, and I'm disappointed with Congress for having not performed the task of updating regulations to compensate for global economic expansion, inclusive of tax codes. Have they been purposefully limiting their activity only to porkbarrel and special interest groups? They'd better find some ways to clean up the regulatory process, toot-sweet, otherwise the grand ship will be going down!!!

Back to the subject of offshore tax havens, I tend to agree with shifting burden of proof from the IRS, to the business/trust/etc, and I'm taken aback to learn how the burden of proof currently rests upon the IRS. To my knowledge, and in all my experience in dealing with US based tax authorities, the burden of proof has always been upon the taxpayer. I'm very surprised to hear of the reverse.

IMO, a wide majority of US taxpaying citizens do expect federal regulation be structured in such a way that taxes be captured in a fair manner. There has always been the impression that the largess of tax evaders are the rich tax evadors, who can afford to hire accounting firms to navigate the loopholes. These loopholes are created by special interest groups.

SU is hanging in there despite drop in oil price.

Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEBTN
Details Filled at $8.40

Jock - How about the source of origin for extremely-rare-earth materials such as unobtanium?

SiO2
I'm running XP.
If I don't have Firefox full screen width, the scroll bar doesn't show (but I can still scroll using the scroll wheel). It is perhaps because I have an FF toolbar, multiple tabs, and the Navigation toolbar and the status bar, so limited real estate. Is your app designed for fixed window size?

I'm rethinking my position in TBT. It would seem more probable that interest rates will go up than down. This is due to the inflation drivers. Of course, there's a risk of deflation if the recession is serious. At this point, my TBT position has gone first up 4%, then down 7%, and I'm now down less than a percent. But each time the broad equities market drops, TBT tanks as people seek the safety of bonds.

So I am considering selling and thinking over this position a bit more. If we are going to go to Dow 10,000, then that's a huge drop for TBT looming. Obviously there is a slight decrease in inflation pressure due to the recent drop in commodity prices. I think I just convinced myself to put in a limit order to sell today and live with a less than 1% loss....

Any other thoughts on TBT lately?

AHOLA! (Aloha for those of us on islands where it's not tropical)....

I will answer for Kaimu as he seems busy.
The rich can move their assets into other forms of wealth, the poor get stuck with the mother of all taxes, INFLATION.

They have you guys looking under the couch for change again while the big shell game in taxes is FIAT INFLATION.

Come on people, wake up. You fight over a few percentage points of income tax while they take 25-30% of your ENTIRE NET WORTH valued in $USD funny money.

At least the rich know where the game is being played. Some here think it's about income tax.
WRONG. That's what they want you to look at.

It's a start, but let's see it for what it is.......you are fighting over the credit card payment while the rich see the outstanding BALANCE, and THAT is where the game is played.

Seamus: Try this one. Mom (you know the Mom situation) gave me her car. Drove it to WA where I had to pay use tax on the value of the car that was a gift to register it here. Almost $1000. It's what amounts to an interstate inheritance/gift tax.

May have time to respond later, off to California this AM, will be on the road.
My next post if I can will be from Yreka.

Best of luck to all.
I'm long CHSCP/CNSL/ESLR/TBT/WGW

allen
Bill has said many times that we may go to 10000
Also seasonal pattern call for Dow to go down
I do not know what will happen to TBT
I am waiting to buy it again

Craig:

In any valid, authentic attempt to answer for Kaimu, you must use the word,expletive,utterance (take your pick) "HA!" at least 3 times.

Vinod, my experience with TBT is that it goes down when the broad equity market goes down, and up when equities are up. For this period in the market, this effect seems to be stronger than the impact of inflation. I had originally expected that the inflation effect would cause a gradual net increase over this year. At any rate, I put in a limit sell order at 71.85. Probably won't reach that today, but I can live with holding a bit longer.

Of course, if I sell, it's guaranteed to shoot up to 75 or 80...

ALOHA!!

Bill ... Could it be that most wealthy Americans are now seeking to move funds to offshore banks because they just want a "safe bank"! Forget TAXES! It seems to me the US financial system is broken, so why leave all your funds in a failed banking system where no amount of FDIC or SIPC will ever make bank customers feel safe?

I am amazed daily at what Americans will put up with from politicians and bankers. Had I told IndyMac customers a year ago their bank would fail and they'd have to stand in long lines like photos from the Great Depression I would have been laughed at and called a "tin foil hat" nut! IndyMac was not even on the FDIC "Watch List"!

The US Congress will forever point fingers at everyone other than themselves! They have no shame ... they will even attack "speculators" and the worst of it all is that they have no qualms about declaring War on "NOUNS"! The "WAR ON TERROR" ... the "WAR ON DRUGS"! This is totally and utterly laughable. What would IKE or PATTON or WASHINGTON or GRANT say about these silly ass Wars we have now? These wars where trillions are spent but nobody other than soldiers sacrifice anything! All the while we are being led into these Wars by two Vietnam "draft dodgers"! This is a total disgrace and now we get OBAMA! This whole thing would be a GREAT Saturday Night skit! Isn't this where an awful lot of our tax dollars go?

The entire "US WAY OF LIFE MODEL" is BROKEN and the biggest failed policy of all is the US TAX SYSTEM MODEL!

Instead of debating here how much is too much taxes, why don't we debate why we still need "income taxes"? Why do we need an IRS? This country did fine for many hundreds of years "without an income tax"!

By debating wealthy people moving their money to the Caribbean and which class is paying too much taxes we fall into the trap of "accepting constant governmental abuses" where 53% taxes is seems fair now! Everyone here is paying 53% taxes on their income. Did you know that?

It is clear to me the entire US TAX SYSTEM is a failed system ... if we were in any college in the USA at an Economics 101 class and studied the US TAX SYSTEM "BUSINESS MODEL" that would be obvious. It is an antiquated system rife will abuses and totally inefficient.

When studying the US TAX SYSTEM the first question should be obvious ... Who knows better about how tax dollars should be spent? The local people who pay the taxes or some lame politician 1000 miles away in Washington DC who probably could not even spell the name of your town correct much less dictate to where your tax dollars will go? I mean, logistically it is a nightmare. We have a system that takes money from a hard working employee of Detroit, MI working at GM, which is failing also, and the US government asks US employers to set up a complex system for collecting payroll taxes from its employees where the employer has to purchase computers and software and hire numerous people to oversee and operate this mammoth payroll tax reporting system. Essentially if you think about it every company in the USA is being asked to set up a "mini IRS office" right inside their own organization. Nevermind that you started your business to make a profit and try to keep costs down so that you can provide honest employment to local people who otherwise without your company would be sitting on US WELFARE roles, clogging Social Security offices! Does anyone here see the lunacy in such a model?

Now we have all these "mini IRS offices"(tax collectors) sending money 1000 miles away to the BIG CENTRAL office of the IRS in Washington DC, where even more of our tax money is spent to hire huge amounts of people to run these huge computer systems to track and record "tax liabilities" throughout the USA and the World! I mean COME ON!!! Even with this HUGE APPARATUS in place that has done nothing but yell out for MORE and MORE money, while politicians on Capital Hill SPEND more and MORE ... WITH ALL THIS HUGE EXPENDITURE and these HUGE TAX REVENUES in the TRILLIONS our government STILL asks and demands MORE MONEY ... MORE TAXES! So now we have TRILLIONS of tax dollars coming in from all over the USA and what does our government do? They pass a bill to save FNM and FRE with provisions to raise the DEBT CEILING to over $10 TRIL dollars ... in other words there is NEVER ENOUGH!

Yet with all this BIG GOVERNMENT abuse for literally 90 years ... we will sit here and debate "how much taxes is too much"? We will NEVER question the broken model of a system that rendered us "bankrupt" and devastated us monetarily ... we will never QUESTION AUTHORITY that financially rapes and pillages us US TAXPAYERS and our families every year! NO-O-O!!

AMAZING !!! It's so AMAZING!!! Its been the BIGGEST CON JOB in human history but we just accept it as normal! Its normal that I have to work until frickin' JULY before I can start earning after tax income to support my family! TONY SOPRANO would be having a cream fest wet dream if he could run a RACKET like that! And if by some miracle he could run such a RACKET he would be thrown in jail for it! Yet we allow our elected officials to operate freely with NO repercussions at all. WHO IS THE BIGGER MAFIA HERE?

Okay ... lets debate how horrible these Caribbean banks are and how those wealthy Americans are so evil ... lets debate that and label that as criminal ... but lets allow the HUGE CRIMINAL EMPIRE that designed such a system to forever make our lives miserable all the way to the poor house!

GREAT STRATEGY CARAISTAS!

Why is it I am practically the only one here that QUESTIONS the US FED ... the US GOVERNMENT ... the IRS ... the entire frickin' global MONETARY SYSTEM on a daily basis and everyone else will just debate SYMPTOMS and try to TRADE their way to prosperity without even thinking one thought about what happens to your vast TRADING EMPIRES once you are forced to CASH OUT! Oh yes, there will come a day when you will not be able to TRADE any more ... then what? Eventually we no longer are able to work! When that day comes do you want to be at the mercy of the current political and tax system?

You guys forget that Americans lived very happy and fulfilled lives prior to the invention of the NYSE. They lived happy lives without the US FED or the IRS or BIG TAX SUCKING GOVERNMENT!

Try an experiment ... Seriously ... I do this often and it is practically euphoric! Sit down in a quiet room with no distractions and try to imagine what your life would be like without having to pay any income tax. NO 1040 forms! NO CPAs to deal with! NO payroll deductions from your paycheck! NO threats of IRS audits! YOU KEEP ALL YOUR MONEY! YOU EARNED YOUR MONEY ... YOU KEEP YOUR MONEY! Every blissful cent is yours ... IMAGINE that!!! Just IMAGINE!!! IMAGINE!!!

You cannot show me any time in human history where there was a worst and more repressive tax system than what we have now! This is the stuff our FOUNDING FATHERS fought and they DIED for! We, however, "treasure" and try to preserve our tax system just the way it is! We keep voting into power politicians who always promise they will make "it" better. Its still here!!

LETS DEBATE TAXES! Yeah ... goody! Poor Ben ... he is trying the best he can! George, he's basically a good man who "cares" but its just the times. And Hank ... he really has stepped up to the plate to help us hasn't he! OH GOODY ... I can't wait until OBAMA gets to be President because "he cares" and he has Oprah and the gals on THE VIEW on his side and things will really CHANGE! Yay ... we are all saved. Hummmmm???? Yay ...

SAVE YOURSELVES ... IT'S THE MONEY STUPID! IT'S THE M-O-N-E-Y STUPID!!!!!!

[Bill Cara note: Yes, kaimu, there are many Americans who no longer trust their banks, and for good reason. They seek banks that are not a part of the Federal Reserve System. After IndyMac, can anybody blame them? Why are the regulators protecting these failing or failed banks, and why are legislators so willing to save their shareholders and bondholders at the cost of the US taxpayer?

Someone sent me this piece on IndyMac. It ought to be an eye opener to people who trust all banks:
http://appraisersforum.com/showthread.php?t=141764 ]

ALOHA !!

While we are busy making fun of the ZIMBABWE DOLLAR try to think about Americans who were alive back in 1912 who would be laughing themselves silly at any idiot who would pay $30,000 for a car or $400,000 for a 500sq ft condo! Back then a new car was $300 and a new home was $1800! So who are the fools again?

Its all perspective and in the end there isn't a rat's ass difference between a Zim dollar and a US Peso ... they're both FIAT! Its all relative!

Criminals? Hummmm ... so our criminals are better than those Zimbabwe criminals? OKAY ...

ALOHA !!

To steal an AA saying ... "ALL YOUR BEST THINKING GOT YOU HERE!"

You are free to substitute the word "THINKING" for any word you care to use ... like "TRADING" or "VOTING" !!

Kaimu - "Sit down in a quiet room with no distractions and try to imagine what your life would be like without having to pay any income tax."

Would there be no taxation? How could we exist that way? No roads, no bridges, no services like schools, disaster relief, (place infinite list here).

There is too much waste and fraud in government today. Government must again learn to respect the money as if they had earned it themselves. Without respect, there can be no confidence.

Also, Americans must begin to live within their means. The last 20 years have brought a tremendous US consumer spending spree enabled by governmental policies that are relics of the distant past... I wonder how past "free trade" policies fit into the pieces of this puzzle.

It's not as simple as just getting rid of government. IMO that won't be an option, ever.

[Bill Cara note: Actually, rather than a quiet room, why not come to The Bahamas and sit with me on the beach where I'll tell you that there is no income tax act, for individuals or corporations, foreign or local. Nobody pays income tax, and yet the Bahamian Dollar is at par with the $USD and has been for years. It is freely exchangeable in the streets. You might even buy a Kalik with a B$ and get a USD$ for change. Now, the govt does need funds, but in Bahamas they get it from customs duties and transit taxes at the international airports and seaports, and the like. Yes, it's a burden on the poor, but there is a social system, including healthcare, that provides a measure of help. As for the US, why not go to the same system? Have a flat tax of say 10% on federal returns and 5% on state returns. Require balanced budgets for federal as well as state and municipal govts. For a legislator-approved war, legislate a war tax that stops as soon as the war is declared over. Allow offshore oil drilling everywhere with the contract between the company's shareholders and bondholders to maintain a pristine environment, which is to say if there is an accident that cannot be remedied by the company, the stakeholders may lose their company to the federal government, who would then sell it to another company and use the proceeds to remedy the problem. Let the free market determine if the stakeholders are prepared to take the risks. Why make these things so complicated? Lobbyists are killing America; that's why!]

cyderman, page is not designed for any specific size, anything over 800x700 will do.

Jaime Carrasco on BNN re. GE: "A global infrastructure mutual fund that pays you 4% for managing it."

Chickenpookie,

You cannot have respect for something created out of thin air. The member banks of the Fed gladly provide and endless supply to Congress who will never be satiated. The goal of the Member banks, eternal debt service by the taxpayer, is therefore achieved.

Posted by 2nd_ave: "David- did you catch that? UAUA hit 8.81 before diving back to 8.20...DAL hit 7.73 before i had a chance to hit the sell button, back to 7.35..."

No, I didn't catch that, as I just woke up and reading this blog during my breakfast. Then I will take my son to day care, and only at about 11:30am PT I will come home and will be able to read through the full discourse. As I said, I am not a daytrader. If I am not sure about some stock being in an uptrend, or if I buy a second portion of a stock after it falls from my initial purchase, I just place a limit order and wait for it to get hit. I sold some of my TBT at $71 a few days ago, bought those shares back yesterday at 70.05, placed a new limit order on $71, and it got hit this morning once again. Also, this morning my SWC limit order at $9.99 was hit, for the shares I purchased yesterday at $9.1.

Since oil went down again today, I am not worried about UAUA. Once it reaches above $9, I will put a sell stop order on it at $9 and will be pulling it up.

DavidV

ALOHA !!

PLEASE-E-E-E ... I expected such comments from the sterile brainwashed statist students of the US Public School System ...

Ever see old photos from 1905 of San Francisco, CA? Then there was 1906 ... Then look at photos of San Francisco in 1910. WE HAD NO TAXES THEN!

Now look at photos of New Orleans right after Katrina and today! WE HAVE A HUGE VAST TAX EMPIRE NOW ... yet we cannot rebuild New Orleans and many of our bridges are collapsing and still have not been repaired!

There's a store for people who cling to and believe in the US TAX SYSTEM ... KLUS-R-US!

Hyperbole aside, how would you propose those bridge get rebuilt, kaimu?

Further:

Do you have respect for the water that comes out of the tap? Most folks, I dare say, do not. All one has to do is turn the spigot and out it flows, never ending. It's only when it suddenly slows to a trickle, or perhaps when the true cost is revealed that you begin to think about conservation. An endless supply of anything is abuse waiting to happen. Respect is earned and learned, and can neither be given nor bought, nor even stolen.

Aloha! Kaimu,

It's not that we don't subscribe to your point of view, although Chickenpookie's commentary is accurate, but what exactly do you do? I write my Congressmen...er...persons and my Senators. Then again I'm a Masshole from the People's Republic of Massachusetts, so you can understand the futility there. Revolution would be difficult. Whereas the sides were relatively evenly matched in weaponry during the Revolutionary War, today THEY have much better toys.

The Founding Fathers also discussed the possibility that this "experiment" of a representative democracy would be a failure. Tocqueville saw the rise of the bureaucracies as the eventual downfall of the country. Now, Wall Street, Government, and the Bureacracies are intertwined to the point of functional strangulation.

It's basically a given that the system will implode and it will be because the country has it's credit card denied. The system will be forced to change.

Interesting point made to me by a historian friend of mine: The average serf during feudal times only had to work 60 days a year for his lord. The rest was for he and his family.

kaimu
my first new car ford pinto cost me $2400

Pinto really held it's value.

http://tinyurl.com/5wguda

As a self employed tax payer, I am paying about 48% of my earnings and I feel it is way too much for what I am getting. The infrastructure in this country is a joke, bad roads, crumbling sewer systems, second rate schools. We should cut the frigging defense budget by two thirds among other things.

SKF off to the races again ...

Much more financial stress...

"The National Australia Bank's decision to write off 90 per cent of its US conduit loans will have dramatic repercussions around the world. Wall Street will be deeply shocked when they understand the repercussions of what NAB has done. It is clear global banks have nowhere near provided for their exposures to US housing loans which in the words of John Stewart are experiencing a “meltdown”.

We are now way beyond sub-prime. NAB says that it is suffering a 55 per cent loss on American housing loans – an event that has never happened in the history of a developed country in recent memory. This is an unprecedented event and means that the cost of bailing out the US financial system is now far beyond the highest estimates. A US recession is now locked in, but more alarmingly, 55 per cent loan losses point to the possibility of a depression.

The global banks have been marking to market the assets they held on their balance sheet, but the vast amounts held in so called 'conduit trust accounts' have not been written down because they were not marketable. NAB wrote them down when they saw the bad mortgages.

US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. But write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are on the cards."

http://tinyurl.com/5masre

ALOHA!!

Who did most of the rebuilding of San Francisco after 1906? The local people did and they used their own local UNTAXED money that was not sent 5000 miles away to Washington DC to run a gauntlet of special interests and criminal organizations. For every tax dollar you send to Washington DC only an average of $0.18 comes back to your local communities. The rest of that dollar went to IRAQ and the other 133 countries where we have military bases in our WORLD POLICE EMPIRE or paying the interest on the US DEBT and now it will be going to Wall Street and the CEOs and shareholders of FNM and FRE.

Forget rebuilding bridges! Rebuild government on all levels first. The bridges will not get rebuilt any way and if they do it will be the local people who do it not the IRS in Washington DC. The system is too inefficient to succeed. The entire system is built on DEBT and fraudulent money. Its destiny is failure ...

Don't try to fix the bridges ... FIX THE GOVERNMENT!

In actuality the current system will collapse on itself. You cannot show me one example in 5000 years of human history where a fiat monetary system survived! Please ... if you want to TRADE against all of human history be my guest! You can call that your ultimate CONTRARIAN play!!!

We US VOTERS have had our heads in the sand for so long that only a total monetary collapse can cleanse the current system ... Accountability will come then ... in spades!

Nemo -
What your historian friend neglected to tell you was that the 60 days the serf worked for his lord was the "harvest season". That way all the produce went to the lord and the serf and his family had the other 10 months of the year to scrape by on nothing!

TSO - Got out of the stock long OK around 18, but the options are killed. What a sorry price performer with oil up OR down. If the refiners can't make any money, I don't see how the oil infrastructure continues to function. I think crude goes up from here and the refiners look like boat anchors. Same for Sun and VLO. Adding positions in UNG; fingers bleeding.

ALOHA !!

"That way all the produce went to the lord and the serf and his family had the other 10 months of the year to scrape by on nothing!"

We Americans serve our LORDS for 180 days harvesting worthless paper that has no nutrition or life sustaining value and have only 6 months of the year to scrape by on nothing!

Welcome to the two party aristocracy!

Kaimu: offer to sell PMI and CUU for a small fee still stands... ;) That money is so dead you don't even have to whistle past it.

ALOHA !!

"As a self employed tax payer, I am paying about 48% of my earnings ..."

Does that include all the excise and sales taxes and property taxes? Try adding all that into the mix!

Don't get brainwashed into thinking your IRS 1040 tax rate you see in the tax tables is your REAL TAX RATE! It is not ... its the tip of the iceberg!

[Bill Cara note: Bill Laggner of Bearing Asset Management in Houston is pointing us to that iceberg! It's the Mortgage Bailout Bill. Here's his message:

All,

If this passes in current form get ready to print a fresh $1 trillion and in the process bailout Wall Street and the Chinese investors who own US mortgage backed securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More importantly, the rescue package leads to additional moral hazard. Please sign the online petition TODAY as the vote is set for the next 24 hours!
http://financialpetition.org/petition-bail.shtml

Enough destruction of the dollar!

/Bill Laggner ]

Kaimu -
And in your scenario what would you do with/about Multi-Nat Corporations? How would they be treated?

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... It's all relative ... I still own MONEY IN THE GROUND unlike most US CORPS who own DEBT IN THE BANK!

How dead is the money ENRON and BSC holds?

Just remember all FIAT MONEY IS DEAD!

:"It's all relative ... I still own MONEY IN THE GROUND unlike most US CORPS who own DEBT IN THE BANK!"

I own them too. In the ground dead and buried, needing a headstone like this one:

http://tinyurl.com/36pgwc

If the company goes bankrupt, your claim and mine on the money is gone. My selling only works if I dump ALL of the stock; sell half and they are still 3 feet under, pushing up orchids.

IBKR dumped today. Placing a stink bid to add a bit to my postion (have to leave till the end of the trading day).

ALOHA !!

If US CORPS paid no income tax then why should MULTI NATIONALL CORPS pay? Imagine the vast sums of foreign money and business that would flow into the USA creating manufacturing jobs again if our government announced no more income taxes for individuals ... US corps and Foreign Corps! Heck ... maybe even Haliburton would move back to the USA! The companies(US and foreign)operating in our communities "tax free" would build the roads, bridges and infrastructure to move their products not some group of spineless IRS and political agents who never earned an honest dollar in their life! Just so you guys know I was a PRP agent with the IRS for three years in the early 1980s so I know the IRS operation inside and out!

COME ON YOU GUYS???? Who built the first railroads in our country? BUSINESS DID! UNTAXED BUSINESSES!!! And what sprung up all along the railroad? Towns and more businesses with more jobs and not a single one was ever taxed into existence! We now TAX business into bankruptcy ... HOW SMART IS THAT? What happens to those employees of failed businesses? They go apply for unemployment, welfare and food stamps and become "wards of the State"!

Jeez, Bill posts everyday from an income tax free country and do you see the Bahamas collapsing? Somehow roads got built and hotels and jobs were created! I often wonder when will the Bahamas unpeg their currency from the US Peso?

Is this stuff so hard to figure out?

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... Go ahead and sell!

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... Go ahead and sell!

Kaimu: I'll sell when Paulson pulls out his bazooka he says he will never need and he fires a shaped charge with depleted uranium penetrator into the heart of the US Dollar. Paulson: "feel lucky punk...?"

Out for the day; done enough damage. Have a great weekend all.

Well, UAUA is now back down to the point where I bought it yesterday, and so I decided to double my position in it at $7.58. Now I am placing a sell limit order at $8.5 for 1/2 of my UAUA.

2nd_ave, I am just curious: what fraction of your portfolio would be a 100% position in UAUA? Do you allow a 100% position in a stock to be larger if that stock is less volatile? For example, what fraction of your portfolio would a 100% in TBT be? How about NOT.V?

Thanks,

David

Mexican Peso Plunges as Government Halts Daily Sales of Dollar

By Andrea Jaramillo

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's peso fell the most in more than four months after the central bank said it would suspend daily sales of the dollar beginning Aug. 1.

The central bank's announcement followed the government's decision today to purchase $8 billion from Banco de Mexico's foreign reserves.

Mexico's peso dropped the most since March 6, falling 0.7 percent to 10.1033 per dollar at 1:42 p.m. in New York, compared with 10.0335 yesterday. The currency traded near a six-year high before the announcement.

allen, I think you are being unfair to TBT. It is acting GREAT lately. It is now back to the place it was 2 days ago, but we had a 280 point drop in DOW and a 20 point rise! There seems to be a huge force pushing it up, as investors are willing to abandon the safety of bonds at the slightest chance of equities going up. The time to leave TBT would be when the summer rally would convincingly end, and I think TBT will continue going up a little longer than equities, as it happened in May.

DavidV

Well, if Wikipedia is to be believed on the Bahamas:
"Tourism is the primary economic activity, accounting for about two thirds of the gross domestic product (GDP). Offshore finance is the second largest industry, accounting for about 15 per cent of GDP."

Together that's four-fifths of GDP! I doubt the US could generate 66% of our GDP through tourism.

As for your contention that "business" built the first railroads, again from the jewel of Wiki:
"Authorized by the Pacific Railway Act of 1862 and heavily backed by the federal government, it was the culmination of a decades-long movement to build such a line and was one of the crowning achievements of the presidency of Abraham Lincoln, completed four years after his death. The building of the railway required enormous feats of engineering and labor in the crossing of plains and high mountains by the Union Pacific Railroad and Central Pacific Railroad, the two privately chartered federally backed enterprises that built the line westward and eastward respectively."

I'm not going to spend any time defending our current tax laws. I will say that, IMO, the last 8 years have clearly demonstrated what happens when government works for the corporations and special interests, and stops working for the people. I am of the belief that government can be a positive force for good in people's everyday lives. And I don't need to go back to the 19th century for examples of same.

Kaimu: When you ask

Why is it I am practically the only one here that QUESTIONS the US FED.

I think many people here don't ask the question since they already know and agree that it is broken.

I find much of what you say is true or pointing towards realities which are very very possible in becoming true.

I also know from 30 years of experimentation, and knowing various hidden players... That to say or to question this travesty we are within: isn't going to spark people into being awake. In fact the opposite is true, you actually will force more people to ignore the truth in this situation.

Never underestimate people's capacity to deny truth in favor of their own comfort!

Sadly your statements of truth will cause many people "discomfort" and force them more into hiding into false comfort.

Bill's blog is wonderful, as it is helping to teach others, one at a time, about conditions in the market. But it's only a start.

But here is the bigger turn key point. Knowing the truth is one thing.

But knowing the truth only pins you down to their game. IN a strange way, by decrying all the ills of the system, you also support that system in reflection. Since we as traders, support the very system in how we trade and make money within it.

The real trick, the real solution...

Changing the game.

Now that is what the people who control the system fear, The unexpected and unpredictable changes in how people live outside the system...

The more we tune out of it, the more we concentrate on family, helping each other here, being true in kindness, the less we "buy" into the current consumption cycle... the more we truly shift things to something better.

We can't beat this current system at its own game: That game is over and current winners are playing their piles of gains. So many others instead wait, knowing: It might fall, it might collapse, it might fail. In fact by all rules of logic is should break loose any second....

but you know something why wait?

I think it's easier to just slowly leave it, now. Sure use it for what you can now, but along the way to slowly also learn how not to use any of the prime fed systems etc...

I know many people who have told me: "You can't just leave the system" everything is too plugged in...I just smile at them and continue on my way :). It takes time, but if you live to your heart. I have "personally" found it's possible. Every day as I practice, I get better and the isses I am entangle with shrink and strangely I make a bigger difference in return.

I beg to differ about this being possible: as I been poking about and I think and have slowly been doing just that.

The funny thing is, as you chase the pigs, I know you are doing the same thing, in your own way.

One day in the mud you will laugh becuase you will know you have side stepped the whole bloody game!

:)

mojo - Then perhaps it's time to pull the plug. That might just be what we're witnessing now. Regardless, some changes are needed and those changes will be forced, if necessary.

Interesting income tax FACTS. Every last dime of personal income tax that US citizens pay goes to the FED to cover the interest on the money that we (US govt) have authorized them to loan to us. Is that not nuts? All other services provided by national, state, and local govts that we take for granted are provided for in business, import, excise etc. taxes.

For those really interested in rabit holes, constitutional scholars have verified (and this has been upheld in Federal courts), that the constitutional amendment authorizing income taxation, (amendment16?) was never lawfully ratified... it is treated as if it were law, but was never actually ratified by sufficient states to be enacted... Furthermore, the amendment provides for "voluntary servitude" which essentialy means that if you are a US citizen, income taxes are supossed to be voluntary. But dont try this at home folks. Opting out, even legally, has dire consequences; Just ask Wesley Snipes.

All of this is real and has been very well documented by numerous credentialed sources, and our congressional representatives and our judicial systems are awared of these issues. A good retrospective was produced by Aaron Russo (Grammy award winning producer of Trading Places produced retrospective entitled America; Freedom to Fascism).But imagine the liability to the Govt if any case substantially challenged current taxation practices... unthinkable. So everyone proceeds with business as usual.

As if this were not enough, the IRS has its own enforcement branch... THink about this: the IRS, a privately owned institution much like the Federal Reserve has de-facto authorization to carry guns, break down doors, sieze assests, etc. in the pursuit of its business mandate. The whole thing is a bit messy.

I am not a tax dodging nut case. I would not suggest that anyone avoid paying income tax as the results would be rather unpleasant. Being right does not provide immunity. But every US citizen should be educated to the nature of the problems this situation represents.

If I remember correctly, wasn't there an attempt in the 1860s to institute an income tax which was struck down as unconstitutional?

Last one out, shut off the lights...nevermind, they'll shut off the power because we couldn't pay the bills.

[Bill Cara note: Actually, rather than a quiet room, why not come to The Bahamas and sit with me on the beach where I'll tell you that there is no income tax act, for individuals or corporations, foreign or local. Nobody pays income tax, and yet the Bahamian Dollar is at par with the $USD and has been for years.

Unfortunately Bill, being indentured servants of the USA, we "citizens" are taxed on our incomes no matter where on Earth we domicile ourselves and with the future capital controls you've alluded to, movement of our 401K's & IRA's will be further restricted. So moving/living offshore and gaining access to our capital in the US to support ourselves will be made impossible. The current attacks on BVI havens along with the past attacks on Swiss, Liechtenstein & Andorran havens leave my future plans in a MESS. Any suggestions there would be appreciated. Once I reach 59.5 I'd prefer an offshore lifestyle, but to where and how to maintain control of my assets is a vexing issue right now.

I know Ag isn't popular anymore. FYI. CF is shaping up a cup-saucer formation on a 5-min & 10-min charts. They reports earning on Monday.

(disclosure - long CF)

David, maybe I am being unfair to TBT. I just watched my losses mount a few months ago. Now I'm about even, with a basis of 72. My limit at 71.90 didn't sell today, so I'm still a proud TBT owner. I'll rethink my position with your comments as another input. Thanks.

HNCadet:

Agreed I have pondered this also. Its very vexing

I have decided to just liquidate all my retirement out of the 401k over 6 years

to 1) pay for my children's education which doesn't get hit by the 10% fee

2) To work less so the money I take out doesn't get as heavily taxed. I can always work more later and if it all goes away before I retired whats the point of holding on to nothing?

3) Use it as a opportunity to switch rather as a time to get trapped into the same old BS system which as inflation and debt eat everything make it worthless anyways even if they don't steal it away...

Face it Most people will lose all retirement savings as a result of (1) badly managed fund (2) the rules are tightening to prevent any of it from going out which will hurt the poor even more later (3) Inflation , bear markets and tigers oh my!

In this credit crunch the feds and banks will rob all our little piggy banks for the pennies to save their arse and not ours.

The rules of trading apply to our 401 K as equally. I rather take a 10% lose over a 100% lose any day of the week. I am under no illusion at retirement time how much of my piggy bank will be around after this bunch of thieves take every penny possible.

Regarding taxes, instead of income taxes of any kind and various individual state sales taxes, why not a single national federalized sales tax collected within each state in which transactions occur, a prorated portion of which is kept by the state while the balance is forwarded on to the federal tax authority. States and municipalities would continue to levy property taxes and the like while the federal government would have customs duties, etc.

I consider the "progressive" versus "regressive" tax methods debate to be basically pointless in the financial morass of today's confused and counterproductive legacy systems.

johojo,
You'll never see reform like that because too many bureaucracies (Toqueville) would have to give up power.

Interestingly enough, the largest organized group lobbying against tax reform (flat tax)in the past were the tax attorneys and tax accountants who would see their multi-billion dollar industry dissapear overnight. NIMBY policy hard at work.

Taxpayer bill on housing bailout could reach $1.4 Trillion:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080725/25851253.html

That's *ONLY* $5,600 per person. Here comes higher taxes. Yay!

What the SEC Really Did on Short Selling
By CHRISTOPHER COX
http://tinyurl.com/6aemmw

wow I am licking my chops to join this debate.
Granted what I say may not be intelligent.

16 amendment was ratified in February of 1913. It took over 1300 days to be ratified after congress passed it. 10 months later after it was ratified they drafted your favourite act and created the fed in December.

Flat tax. Not going to happen. Well unless someone can debate otherwise. Currently the top 25% wage earners that bring home around 65% of the chedder pay 85% of the taxes. The bottom 50% earn under 15% and pay less than 5% of the taxes.
Yes inflation tax does hurt the lower wage earners.
What is amazing is that tax recepits collected since the "wealthy bush cuts" have actually inxreasedbto record levels. So this is a great argument for the supply siders because lower taxes have resulted more overall tax dollars collected. Our problem is someone forgot to tell washington to stop writing checks. The Keynesian economic theory loses a little clout as to increase gov and tax more. That is another debate.

Personally I would take a distribution from a retirement account until the age that the penalty goes away or you take a 72t distribution and avoid the 10%. Talk to a CPA. Best advice is diversify and put a horse in every lane. That is the only way to win the derby.

Now we must not forget how the us tax system works it is progressive. So we will take a motivated self employed young lad who is married and makes 75k (on their 1040 of course after all top line and schedule deductions)
First 16050 is taxed at 10% or 1605
Next up to 65100 is at 15% or 7357.5
Next 9900 (bracket is 65100 to 131450) is taxes at 25% or 2475 total us federal tax paid would be 11437.5
Real tax rate is 11437/75000 = 15.25%

Self employment tax. 15.3% of income and the ssi ceiling is 102000. 11475 in self tax.

75k married a year is about 30.55% plus a state income tax rate anywhere from 0% to 8.5% on a progressive scale.

125k marrieD w-2
Fed taxes 25550
FICA medi. 8136.5 medi does not phase out.
Total taxes 33686.5
Effective tax rate 33686.5/125000 = 26.05%
Hmmmmmmmmmm

Let's be real if the self employed bozo had good people he would have earned more than the w2 fellow.

Oh don't get me wrong I say we tax more.
This is my favourite.

You would really have a lot of explaining to convince me otherwise. Fiat money is the reason why and how we are able to blog here today. Of it wasn't for all that phony money placed on the system decades ago there would not have been the investment dollars purged onto the system For decades. It is not perfect but it did work. Two sides to the coin.
No paved roads, that great toilet, ooh costco and the classic 64 impala. Love and money make the world go around. Information is a close too.

Norm,

One of the many researchers who have spent considerable amounts of personal time and resource establishing an historical record trail on this issue.

Regarding 16th ratification.... he would definitely beg to differ with your statement.

http://tinyurl.com/khe8d

But how many historical "facts" now taken for granted are actually revisionist history for political expedience?

One of my favorites of all time is the Boston Tea Party..... The original tea party tax protest occured in the South.... Virginia possibly, I dont remember... But I do know how and why it we learned only about Boston. The South lost the Civil war, leading to the Feds mandating a rewrite of history books that systematically downplayed the role of Southern regions in the establishment of the original Union. Leadership in such important issues was deemed too historically substantial to attribute to those dastardly rebels...

Another in this vein involves the farce that Lincoln was in any way an abolitionist... I was just reading an abstract of a recently published book written by a black Harvard Sociologist substantiating this misconception and documenting the reasons for revisionism... I'll find the link if anyone is interested.

Norm: "Personally I would take a distribution from a retirement account until the age that the penalty goes away or you take a 72t distribution and avoid the 10%. Talk to a CPA. Best advice is diversify and put a horse in every lane. That is the only way to win the derby."

What I have done starting 7 years ago is convert 1/8 of my pre tax retirement (IRRA) to a Roth by paying the taxes. All moving "under cover" of Bush. Once the money that has ben converted has resided in the Roth 5 years, the principal (conv amount) can be withdrawn tax free. I started that and the flow is into metal bars and coins. The next step will be to get the bars out of the country. And I do not plan on retiring here.

There is always a method... I don't recommend mine, just chatting. The end game is obvious to me and all the short term noise is just Coriolis acceleration spinning you one way vs the other if long or short. USD still going down the drain.

oh... one more thing..

IT IS OK TO AVOID TAXES

but

IT IS NOT OK TO EVADE TAXES.

We have no leadership in this country as we are all lemmings. The blind leads the blind and no real vision exists. More or less the populace is lead by the populace. The pundits in washington all areas of leadership have no true belief, except the incentive to keep their jobs. We should have some sort of term limits set for those who represent the people. The people (we, us) do have beliefs but we as a social group are more prone to follow or be told what to do because we are to lazy to learn about government or real true current events. The sad part is we don't even elect leaders (wait, not a good word, PEOPLE): people who are holding a position that requires intelligence.

Unfortunately my skewed vision of the left and right are the following...
the left wants to control our freedom/liberties and make it so we are all quote on quote on a level playing field.
the right wants to take over the world and build nations.

IMO - both sides have fell off the tracks.

What is sad is that the media divides us.

What is even more sad is that the "conversation" of politics is practically forbidden.

What is even worst than that... is that individuals who are either democrat or republican (the true believers in "their party" won't even listen or consider to the what the other side has to say. They vote for only their party. That is ridiculous.

We all need a more open mind but we still need to stick our internal beliefs not what a party tells us too

Aurator,

That is definitely a legal way to to it. The current law does allow that. The traditional to roth conversion is a great way to get tax free growth and distribution down the road.

My question is why put your eggs in that basket?
The metals and coin basket.... is one looking for long term gains?

Is the USD going down the drain?? if so then the dollar loses king back status... as oil has appreciated over 250% against the USD and 140% against the EURO. If the EURO becomes the reserve currency (which i doubt that would ever happen), kiss your gold appreciation goodbye.

Besides... going in one asset class hasn't shown historically high rates of return. Your best bet as I said before is put a horse in ever lane so you are guaranteed to win. Every specific amount of time as one of your horse were to crescendo, take a profit and apply to a losing horse.
Long term and historically the only real winning method is diversify and readjust your gains to losing positions (sectors, assets) eventually those will win. One class of investing is putting to many eggs in one basket. The only basket I would ever load all my eggs to is my basket.
Individually, We are worth what we are willing to sacrifice.

that my friends is the best investment ever.

I think it is preposterous to believe that the dollar is going to be worthless. I know that I am the only one in that camp on this website but to me, more and more foreign investments seem to be pouring into this country. We are faced with a recession but I doubt a depression will ever take a hold.
Oh... Once the "voters" essentially force the drill drill drill... I could only imagine what that will do when the #3 producer of oil in the world becomes the #1,2 producer in the world 7-10 years from now. No peak oil, Peak credit will be barely avoided (lots more pain on its way as deflation starts but doesnt crest and crash).

This comment will not go over well.
Either way, as I read about gold and why to invest in gold. I have a much cheaper alternative to gold. to imagine that society crumbles and the batteries that some people have been buying along with canned food, in preparation for the times to change and precious metals will be "great".
Two words, earth and water... wait I mean....
Brass and Lead (+ survival instincts).

As I read the choices we all make, I realize that there are more than two sides to a coin and one may sound different because of their point of view. We all have a reason for our logic and our logic makes sense to others but not to others. As confusing as the last two sentences seem, that is how we take someone else's point of view out of context.

My advice is have a diversity or a horse in every lane of friends and family... Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Smile, make someone else smile, share a laugh and love everyday. All else fails, the sun will rise and set everyday.

MtnGntx,

Prior to Lincoln the states were not truly united.
They were under lincoln. We became one union. There were roughly one half million americans who lost their lives during that process more than any other battle in US history.

If I remember right...

Lets not forget the gentleman who lead the US to greatness as he was from the south. Virginia. His name was Cornel (Later to be promoted to General) George Washington. Which was our first commander in Chief as President of the USA.

So based on the evolution of our government and rule, we have essentially evolved from 13 colonies - to independent states that were later officially united around 85 years later. To the mess that is developing today. Wow havent the times changed....

The 16 amendment was drafted "around" 1909...

One could argue that arizona and new mexico were states in 1912 so when the amendment was drafted in 1909.... So they won't need 75% of the 48 states because 47 and 48 weren't states then. 75% of 46 would be 34.5 state... The oklahoma and california arguments have no factual true substance behind his argument on the tax law that never was....

everyone has an agenda...To me.... it seems like another website that is conspiracy...
Is Elvis dead? what about biggy and 2pac, what was up with 2pac and the clock that he raps and is in his videos, coincidentally he actually passed away at that same time... makes you think.
did we really land on the moon? was ms monroe killed by the secret service... was jfk killed by the fed?
name your conspiracy there are always those who make a choice to believe in it. Which is awesome because we don't have enough people believing in any choice.

Personally.... I find that if 1000s of people who choose to EVADE taxes get locked up and they have all the money in the world to buy the best lawyers and if Union Pacific rail way which was probably one of the BIGGEST companies during it's time when their case went to the supreme court.

Remember.... If history serves me right... Arizona was the last state to ratify the MLK January holiday in 2001.

DRILL DRILL DRILL, wind farm wind farm wind farm, More Palo verde power plants, diversify and have a well rounded energy policy.

Only way this country will get out of it's hole is to export energy. As there is only so much energy and matter in the world. Let the manufacturing jobs stay where it costs nothing to produce them. Let ford and gm die, Asia and Germany make more quality cars but they can buy our energy and technology.

Educate our kids and learn how conserve.

[Bill Cara note: Wow! You guys are terrific. Of course, not knowing the US tax system, I haven't much of a clue of what you are talking about. But I can sense the adrenalin flowing and the brains in gear. That's terrific.]

Norm: Great comments...

Looking to move only maybe 20% position to physical metals. Again, not all eggs in same basket. Au Ag Pt Pd Rhodium not practical.

Other consideratios: Roth (any) IRA requires a trustee. US Govt can order the trustee to do whatever they want... ie not allow Gold coins held in Roth IRA (or any other investment)to be delivered to "owner". So in general, if your money is in an IRA you are a guaranteed puppet of the USG.

The IRA, IRRA, 401(k), Roth IRA arena, is one of the LAST places the USG can pilfer your money. When they are totally out of ammo, sucking air, and disgraced, do you not think they will come for it? Paulson just asked for "unlimited tax dollars - we pay" and he may get it.

However, you can go bankrupt and still keep the Roth IRA. In my case I self insure for health, and that could happen. If that happens, I hope it's a couple months after I take delivery of the Supercharged LS9 Vette... ;) Everything is a gamble. My parking meter ticks. Some entertainment for y'all:
http://tinyurl.com/679jgh

Looking at the area around the South China Sea to retire and formulating plan. 2 or 3 hrs to Sydney (Perth) or Hong Kong. Singapore is too expensive unless something changes. My former side kick in business who retired as an interpreter for the UN was a gorgeous gal from KL, Malaysia, spoke 7 languages. We aren't cookin' biscuits in KY in this modern world and sending our kids to college. ;)

This isn't your Father's Oldsmo-bubble!
It's a tectonic paradigm shift.

David- in response to your question, i would never have more than 5% of the portfolio in the airline sector...so moving this morning to 60% in UAUA=3% of the portfolio, and rounding out the position with DAL moved both positions to 5% of the portfolio...of course, a combined move of maybe 10% this morning still leaves you with a 0.5% gain, which in this market is something i'm quite happy with for 90 minutes of play...

...TBT, on the other hand-> i've had as much as 25% of the portfolio in a combination of TBT/DXKSX, and willing to go even higher should i sense an imminent move in the right direction...

2nd: You are correct, just early.

I find myself doing the same thing...

Envision what is to unfold, be exactly correct, and fail to profit due to too early of plays.

Seems the norm lately, as I'm ready for USO and UNG to pop. Soon as I back out, they will.

What laws of the universe plague me like this? I want to know which set of parents to blame. ;)

Weekend reading:

In case you missed it, Jim Grant's "Why No Outrage?"

http://tinyurl.com/64k8hj

aurator-> it's the way the human psyche works...you'd have to go all the way back to adam and eve...so i'd blame eve (LOL)...i still like Vad's discomfort equation-> it no longer surprises me how often doing the exact opposite of what you feel comfortable/compelled to do is in fact the right (short-term) move...

Two questions for tax gurus:
1. What are the sales tax rules in the state of NJ regarding transactions on physical PM ? I know that some states have a sales tax exemption on physical PM purchase > $1k. I can not find any references for NJ on the net.
2. Is there a way to legally avoid federal taxable event when trading GLD for physical gold? Technically these are "substantially similar" investments and I wonder if the holding period can be somehow maintained. My basis in GLD is in the mid-50s so swapping GLD for GOLD may cause large tax liability this year.

"I have decided to just liquidate all my retirement out of the 401k over 6 years."

Casey- Don't do it, man...

You sold your home at the top, have the ability to work when you need to, and are now free to head off for the next destination? I've done something like that twice in my life- the first was a coming -of-age journey of self-discovery that lasted several months, the second time just a long post-grad school drive across the country when i had the time to stop anywhere as long i wanted, even if just to appreciate distant thunder and lightning on the nebraska plains...it's exhilarating, but the freedom also subtly clouds your common sense...what happens if your health goes downhill and you can't work? the bottom can fall out quickly...

"to 1) pay for my children's education which doesn't get hit by the 10% fee"

i consider your retirement savings a higher priority than your children's education-> let them work while in school/take out student loans...the last thing they need is to be taking care of their parents just as they're hitting their stride in their careers and raising their own kids...

"2) To work less so the money I take out doesn't get as heavily taxed. I can always work more later and if it all goes away before I retired whats the point of holding on to nothing?"

no guarantees in life, but the odds heavily favor those who save...can you count on always working more later?

"3) Use it as a opportunity to switch rather as a time to get trapped into the same old BS system which as inflation and debt eat everything make it worthless anyways even if they don't steal it away..."

it may be a bullshit system, but it's what we have to work with...have some faith in your ability to manage your money...

"Face it Most people will lose all retirement savings as a result of (1) badly managed fund (2) the rules are tightening to prevent any of it from going out which will hurt the poor even more later (3) Inflation , bear markets and tigers oh my!

In this credit crunch the feds and banks will rob all our little piggy banks for the pennies to save their arse and not ours.

The rules of trading apply to our 401 K as equally. I rather take a 10% lose over a 100% lose any day of the week. I am under no illusion at retirement time how much of my piggy bank will be around after this bunch of thieves take every penny possible."

do you really believe that? many, if not most people have in fact managed to retire comfortably due to working diligently towards financial independence...don't confuse financial independence (which IMO is real independence) with the independence of being free to roam in your younger years...

spend some time pondering the other side of your decision...

best wishes..

Hints of a recovery?

Northern Trust perspective on Housing.

http://tinyurl.com/5vhrce

Casey Kochmer
I have always sailed against the wind. There is more fun in it
One gets best out of himself

Aurator,

YOU! YOU!

Good for you!

Do me a favor. Make it happen!!

I could only imagine about having that opportunity as that down the road.

Get some! Make it happen in the pacific!

that is fantastic.

2nd :

:) thanks for the love man!

You bring up good points many I have went over: while many could construe what I am doing as a tossing away of constraints, seemingly as dash for freedom.

It isn't, it's a extremely slow process of working towards various very long term projects of mine.

As a Taoist I don't think nor plan in western terms. I only had the various jobs and life I did have, so I could understand western culture better. For me western culture was the alien lifestyle to learn.

Along the way a 401K happened. To me it is to use for retirement, I have retired from western culture so I am cashing it out accordingly for that purpose. I think its silly for a government to define a retirement age! it pre-defines so many peoples lives in such a constricted way.

Reducing my 401K to my children's education is worth it for me within the path of kindness to my children. A promise I made to someone long ago, to make happen.

Slowly reducing my 401K towards various side projects: also worth it for long term investment of working towards starting a more permanent temple, rather than only teaching on the road.

My Taoist Teaching, is my retirement. Just helping others. I have been doing this so long and now its nice to shift into primarily doing this, rather than the hermit in my practice using western jobs as a cover to remain hidden within.
To invest now in what I am, rather just saving towards a western lifestyle I never had any faith within.

All futures are rooted now, so this is all just part my taking the right steps now.

While you are correct, what I am doing isn't right for everyone, (Kids don't do this at home unless you are ... )

I needed to make the point that for some people, it is the right step: if done with purpose and towards their true nature: The rules are changing now, so dare to think differently since now is the most flexible time to do so: (before the Fed restrict the rules against the average person more)

This is advice you would never hear from a financial adviser since it isn't correct from purely a finance point of view, but for myself it is correct for who I am.

That's the most difficult step I think in any practice, blending it towards supporting your life truly, rather than just being an expert in the practice for the practices sake.

This is true for finance also, the trick of blending the financial flows to properly support your lifestyle accordingly. Not to dreams, but to reality of now and one's personal purpose.

I so appreciate your advice 2nd! Just letting you know this is not something done on a whim. It's flow is very much part of my style of living.

casey- OK, man...go to it!

"FDIC takes over 28 branches of 1st National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank"

http://tinyurl.com/54rowe

"CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) -- Twenty-eight branches of 1st National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank, operating in Nevada, Arizona and California, were closed Friday by federal regulators.

The banks, owned by Scottsdale, Ariz.-based First National Bank Holding Co., were scheduled to reopen on Monday as Mutual of Omaha Bank branches, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said."

ALOHA !!

"were scheduled to reopen on Monday as Mutual of Omaha Bank branches,"

This will date me but ... Where's Marlen Perkins and does the Wild Kingdom get any banks? Maybe the Disney Channel will take over a bank or two? HA!! Isn't Mutual Of Omaha an insurance company? It used to be ...

It is getting to the point where you need to withdraw all your savings and checking over the weekend to be safe, like going to cash every Friday to avoid a stock market crash!

Seriously, how long can this go on for and pass for "civilization"?

ALOHA !!

Today I got a letter from Ron Paul to join his LIBERTY PAC ... where Ron Paul types of politicians are placed throughout federal and state level governments, even at levels such as School Boards and Mayors ...

Here is a list of Ron Paul candidates running for office in September and November at various levels of federal and state governments. I urge that you support these politicians so that we can proliferate and grow our already strong grassroots drive to restore honest money and honest government ...

FEDERAL
John Wallace - New York, 20th Congressional District
http://www.johnwallaceforcongress.com/

B.J. Lawson - North Carolina, 4th Congressional District
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/

Steven Vasquez - New York, 21st Congressional District
http://www.stevenforcongress.com/

Paul Broun - Georgia, 10th Congressional District
http://www.paulbroun.com/

Congressman Walter Jones - North Carolina, 3rd Congressional District
http://www.walterjonesforcongress.com/

Congressman Doug Lamborn - Colorado, 5th Congressional District
http://www.lambornforcongress.org/

Congresman Roscoe Bartlett - Maryland, 6th Congressional District
http://www.bartlettforcongress.org/

Collins Bailey - Maryland, 5th Congressional District
http://www.baileyforuscongress.com/

Virgil Goode - Virginia, 5th Congressional District
http://www.virgilgoode.com/

Congressman Denny Rehberg, Montana, Single District
http://www.rehbergforcongress.com/

George Morovich - Texas, 25th Congressional District
http://www.morovich.com/

Linda Goldthorpe - Michigan, 1st Congressional District
http://www.goldthorpeforcongress.com/

George Lilly - Colorado, 1st Congressional District
http://www.georgelillyforcongress.com/

Barb Davis White - Minnesota, 5th Congressional District
http://www.barbdaviswhiteforcongress.com/

Michael Delavar - Washington, 3rd Congressional District
http://www.delavarforcongress.com/

Congressman Scott Garrett - New Jersey, 5th Congressional District
http://www.garrettforcongress.com/

STATE
Jeremy Cady - Missouri, 138th District - State Representative
http://www.jeremycady.com/

Joe Dumas - Tennessee, 2nd District - Hamilton County School Board
http://www.joedumas.com/

Gregg Juster - Tennessee, 4th District - Hamilton County School Board
http://www.juster08.com/

Grant Cermak - Minnesota, 58-A District - State Representative
http://www.grantcermak.com/

Felix Montez - Minnesota, 59-A District - State Representative
http://felixforhouse.vpweb.com/

Eric Plourde - Michigan, City of Ann Arbor - Candidate for Mayor
http://www.epforaa.com/

R. Kenneth Lindell - Maine, 41st District - State Representative
http://www.reelectlindell.org/

This is how we can start to change the way AMERICA is run so that at least our kids have a fair chance to succeed.

I already mentioned that government needs to change before bridges and cities can get rebuilt well here is one way! Now you can effect change in not only your own region of America but in other as well. I would urge those here who understand what is happening to America and are passionate to make REAL CHANGES ... not OBAMA CHANGES ... to go to this link for LIBERTY PAC. I have been engaged in this LIBERTY process since ROSS PEROT days. It is very odd that Ross Perot and his platform and predictions for America are all coming true while his opponents of extremely limited vision turned out to be nothing but "part of the problem"! What kind of America are you willing to leave to your kids?

STEP UP TO THE PLATE ...

Link: http://www.libertypac.net/index.html

ALOHA !!

Casey ... You remind me of my friend who studied martial arts and majored in Asian Studies in college back in the 1970s who spent his entire life traveling through Asia teaching English in places like China and Vietnam. He could speak five languages fluently and would often take jobs at restaurants that catered to cultures where he knew the language. He spoke Italian fluently and took a job as a waiter at an Italian restaurant and he would make a fortune on tips bringing home(he was my roommate for a year)as much as $400 a night! Back in the 1970s that was good tips! He was a chameleon and influenced me greatly in many ways ... Of course that is how I was exposed to Asian based philosophies and religions and martial arts!

Farming is a spiritual path unto itself and I am constantly learning lessons of "life and death" from my occupation, even on the level of an ant or gecko! Gordon Gecko ... but I do have a gecko pal here that is smart, fat and aggressive and is always on my window at night hunting unsuspecting moths that are attracted to the light. I named him GORDON ... I am looking at him right now as I type! HA!

Mah sei lok dei haang ... Journey on !!!

ALOHA !!

As a Hawaiian Miles(Hawaiian Airlines)member I got this e-mail about high oil prices! Perhaps npw that oil is down $20 Congress isn't interested in "speculators" any more!

Even the CEO of Hawaiian Airlines does not GET IT!

READ ON:
Aloha STEPHEN,

Several weeks ago, my colleagues and I wrote to you about the sharp economic downturn caused by skyrocketing oil and fuel prices and the impact that those rising fuel prices are having on your quality of life. We urged you to get involved by learning more about the problem and to contact your members of Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com.

You heard us and you acted. Millions of messages flooded the Congress, resulting in dozens of bills being introduced to address the need for increased energy supplies, conservation, and the problems caused by poorly regulated market speculation.

Unfortunately, action on these critical measures is stalled in Congress due to partisan bickering and we need to jump-start the process.

Time is running out for Congress to act before its planned five-week recess beginning in August. Therefore, I am asking you once again to take a few minutes to tell your Members of Congress to put aside party politics and help our economy get back on track – BEFORE they leave for August recess.

During the next few days, it is critical for Congress to work together on a comprehensive solution to bring down oil prices. You can do something about this by sending another important message before Congress departs for its summer vacation.

As we all know too well, the price of fuel at the pump is battering family budgets and dragging down our entire national economy. While there is no single, magic bullet that will solve this crisis, it is critical to attain the proper balance between limiting excessive speculation, increasing the domestic supply of energy in an environmentally sound manner, developing alternatives, and improving efficiency and conservation. Congress can and must act now to address the energy crises facing all Americans.

Tell Congress not to leave Washington without addressing and resolving the energy crisis. Let us work together to help this country begin the process of restoring the health of our economy.

Sincerely,

Mark Dunkerley
President & CEO

I have moved this week from Knysna, South Africa to Ladismith, South Africa and am awaiting my ADSL connection, hence curtailed posting.

I had one escrow complete this week and another on a different property fail the next day; fortunately, I was able to joke that I am the only person in South Africa happy NOT to sell my house.

I did receive a report on Friday from a friend in California that WAMU is limiting to $5000 cash withdrawals. I had previously given him a sharp warning to get his bank balance below $100K.

Hey Casey,

What's your Taoist name? If you start a temple, are you able to open eyes?

Ahola Kaimu!

Gotta' question. By the way, I'm investing more of my money in Vodka. Anyway, the financial markets are full of counterparty risk, as you have so vehemently, eloquently,adroitly, and accurately enumerated. Given the level of these integrations, the PPT rationalized the need to embark on rescues. Which begs the question, remember-I am a DENSA member, can the world afford to let perhaps the greatest counterparty risk of all, the USSA, go under?

I realize, from a strategic point of view perhaps Putin and his puppets (Chavez included)would like to put their boot on the throat, but is it more in their best interest to knock us back a peg or two instead of crushing us? China, while it's middle class is growing, can it afford not to have the US market right now, or basically lose further value in it's reserves.

You pointed out Mexico's peso value yesterday and how it dropped when they stated they would not sell more dollars.

Well, by selling dollars countries put themselves in a "catch 22" of crushing the value of their reserves. Not selling, keeps them undiversified and the concomitant risks are still there. However, it makes me wonder, if other countries stop selling the $, and their currencies fall, doesn't that make the $ relatively stronger. Isn't relativism among currencies the name of the game? Even if the "investors" see lack of returns in economies at the moment, fleeing to commodities works until you've driven the price of those commodities to the point where economic activity and the demand for those commodities fall because people simply cannot afford them. There will be much suffering of course, but it seems suffering is a big part of life.

The reason I ask this question is Bill, if I remember correctly, has some level of faith in Central Banking and has not necessarily hewn to your position.

The wonderful thing about the gold standard is the fiscal discipline it imposes on governments, but Central Banking, in a sense, gives more power to governments-why would they ever give that up unless taken from them?

http://tinyurl.com/6ccz5l

Saturday AM Coffee: Think.................

vox clamatis in deserto?

Teekay LNG is a Cara100 list member and is involved with marine transport of liquified natural gas.

StockCharts has it first charted about 3 years ago at a price ~$18, it then rose to ~$37 [possibly because of actual and/or potential LNG shipments to China], and is now at ~$24. All 3 RSI's are currently below 30.

Although its current dividend yield is about 8%, it has negative earnings, but what I have read is that because it owns its fleet of LNG tankers, its depreciation charges hide its actual earnings to some degree. Sounds reasonable to me, bwdik.

The reason I am posting all this info [disclosure: I neither own/short LNG stock] is because its Annual Report is just now available [in pdf format] at the link below. I hope that someone who is gifted in reading such statements will take a look at it and comment.

tia

[Bill Cara note: I support LNG as well as Teekay LNG shipping. While I seldom agree with the editorial views expressed by this organization, here is one today that I do agree with:
http://www.nassauinstitute.org/articles/article735.php ]

Kaimu : Thanks for the compliment

God I miss the anoles in the Bahamas! One thing I am looking forward to in Hawaii are the Geckos! Boars and Geckos both great choices on Animal guides!

Nemo:

The Taoist name I took many years ago were two

Airen: (Hebrew) mountain of strength... but it also has a few other interesting Chinese references towards spirit and in history.

The other half is a symbol which doesn't translate with English keys but comes closest to "quest" or "question"

I didn't take these names knowing the meaning till later which was interesting.

On opening "eyes". We should never open eyes for another, instead it is a gentle process of guidance to help people just be themselves, and discover their form of acceptance. That guidance come in many forms of presence, awareness and heart. My practice is not traditional on purpose in order to match to our times rather than trying to match people to a practice. So I am bit of a rebel ;)

Nemo

Airen also translated as Love Person...

When I was a little boy, and first heard of mutual funds, I was very impressed. Spread the risk - what an idea! Many years later, I was rudely awoken by the fact of Big/Cheap Oil being the basis of all economic development in North America (and now, with the "Tar Sands" - for the next 50 years at least). The environmental cost - inestimable.

Germany can go it alone, energy-wise renewably and at insignificant cost. But equally if not more important is diversification. Spread the risk will be not just a marketing jingle.

Supporting Links:
Conservation International - The True Wealth of Nations
http://www.conservation.org/FMG/Articles/Pages/wealth_of_nations_costa_rica.aspx

http://www.kombikraftwerk.de/index.php?id=27 (In English.)

And many more on my website (some not listed).

Casey:

So you took the name, it wasn't given? I meant open the eyes of the deities you'd have in your temple.

Casey:

"Airen" kinda' like phonetically "Ayun" is that like "breath of Tao" or "fire of Tao"

*** Must Listen ***

Here is Don Coxe's latest in which he discusses Oil, Gold, Grains, Banks, and American/Alberta politics.

He favorably mentions several stocks that are on the Cara100 list.

Warning: Don Coxe doesn't mind voicing his opinions about Gore, "Greenies", and Pelosi - which might be offensive to some and welcomed by others.

http://tinyurl.com/2htvq3

I heard an interesting comment from a close friend of my wife who owns and runs an IT business in Beijing. She works with a wide range of companies on IT security systems. She noted that a large number of company owners are shutting down production lately because they are losing money due to squeezed margins and some decline in sales volume. I'm not sure how widespread the trend is, but it's worth looking into for those who are interested in emerging market stocks & the Chinese economy.

Casey- no coincidence you've found a home on this blog!...it takes a discriminating audience to recognize a voice that challenges conventions and helps one to perceive life differently...(cannot imagine your comments surviving in a mainstream financial blog, my friend-> here they are appreciated)...

trading, like anything else in life, does not occur in isolation...the more one integrates lessons from life as a whole (and of course, to do that, you HAVE to listen to voices outside your comfort zone), the more successful one becomes at all things...

vinod is another voice that offers sharp insights in his deceptively terse style-> my favorite of the week:

["kaimu
We outsource very thing else How about outsourcing California State Prisons
To some other country and we will save lots of money?"

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 21, 2008 7:07 PM]

how many times have vinod's comments been amplified by fortuitous TIMING:

["The confidence vote, set for late Tuesday and apparently extremely tight, centers on India’s deepening strategic and commercial ties with the United States. It is the first time in the history of independent India that a foreign policy disagreement has threatened to bring down a democratically elected government."

IBN may be good to buy, After vote,indian stock market will rally?

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 21, 2008 9:49 PM]

agree with last night's comment:

["I have always sailed against the wind. There is more fun in it
One gets best out of himself

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2008 10:40 PM ]

if you're always following the crowd, how the hell are you going to outperform?

as usual, Colin Twiggs picks headlines well:

"Dead Cat Bounce"

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

also expects crude to test the lower channel:

"Brent crude is headed for a test of the lower trend channel. Expect medium-term support at $120/barrel, and again at $110 if needed."

will have airlines/refiners on the radar for a bounce, OEX puts/TBT for an entry...

btw, mistakenly commented i went back into 100% cash friday morning...still holding WGW and looking to add to it and other junior miners...

make that "add to it, as well as open positions in other junior miners..."

2nd, why are you adding junior minors at this point?

(a) if the juniors went down any more, they'd be penny stocks

(b) gold has been off the (media) radar

is anyone talking about buying the miners? that's pretty much it...

I have to agree with that sentiment on the juniors. I hold Geologix and Noront and have seen them decline steadily for months, until this past week with NOT. It was odd, because I got this impulse to buy NOT at 2.86 and loaded up 10k shares. It seems to me that building a reasonable position in the juniors is not a bad idea at this point. Thanks for your thoughts.

BTW, I've done well with the volitility lately, mainly just trend trading on 2% positions. It's worked so far with IBKR, NADQ, LEN, FRP, FRE.

Wow - a busy weekend for US Congress watchers. First the oil speculation bill gets shelved, now the big housing bill is passed.
Any ideas as to how the markets (forex, equities, Treasuries) might react on Monday?

i had the same impulse re NOT.v, but hesitated...the quick and the dead was the name of this week's movie...

Nemo:

Its a bit more complicated. I have been given many names over the years.

The Taoist name I gave you wasn't given or taken. Instead it out of the whims of a dream and I just started using it for no reason other than it me smile 10 years ago. It is as good as any other name and I enjoyed the mountain reference so I kept it. Its as a good of a Taoist name for myself as any other.

Upon deities :) (and Taoism is very varied on this topic indeed) I am exceedingly careful on that subject due to how others react to it and the open approach I have. It's too easy to misunderstand or misrepresent beliefs in terms of higher spirit so I save that for inner practice and only relative to each person, so I can use the correct personal terms. More of an offline topic of conversation as a result.

2nd: agreed, but then I wouldn't just comment on any blog :) this is a special place indeed!

to others: apologies about the side topic...

2nd, I've been thinking more about how I deal with impluses to buy or sell. THis blog has helped me thing this thru, but given that we are condemned to day trading lately, I'm also reading a couple of books on ST trading.

Now I set a much higher bar for my "impulse" buys or sells, and I've set my position sizes much smaller, down to between .5% and 2% of my stock portfolio.

I now try to formulate a macro or fundamental reason for a trade, often writing it down in short hand, like Soros did in Alchemy of Finance (remember all those arrows?). Then I take a guess as to the relative probability of an upside move or a downside move given the recent market sentiment and action. It's been working on most trades lately.

I'm sure Vad would not approve of this technique, but I guess we all are moving up (hopefully..) some kind of learning curve and we each may have a slightly different trading style. (For example, I still don't use stops, and have no plan for now to experiment with them. I don't like being stopped out of positions by the big boys, and am able to recover losses in most cases, except when I was wrong on the fundamentals (and occasionally with a bankruptcy situation...).

Credit Cards:

Ron Paul was right. Sort of?

First link will take you to a PDF of the Housing Bill. Go to pg 620.
Subpart B of part III of subchapter
6 A of chapter 61 is a reference to IRS Code which can be found in the second link.

http://tinyurl.com/5oe2k9

http://tinyurl.com/6lne82

For example, This means that Visa will have to report to IRS that retailerX(payee) has received X gross revenue dollars in settlement payments from Visa(payor). Visa of course gets its payments from the cardholder via the monthly billing process. Visa will have to report any entity(payee that accepts Visa) if that entity accepts over 200 transactions or $10,000 per year. It therefore does not monitor individual citizen transactions but rather the gross yearly transactions of retailers and the like. Its intent is to raise over $9.8 billion over 10 years by trying to dissuade under reporting of revenue. It thus has similarities to an employer reporting employee wages to IRS so IRS can accurately assess tax. Thus Visa will send a form 1090W??? to IRS and a corresponding 1090W??? to retailerX who will then include it in their tax return.

ALOHA !!

ON IRS
The IRS had its beginnings in 1862 via Lincoln's creation of the Revenue Act of 1862, which in turn spawned the Bureau Of Internal Revenue whose only charter was to collect tax revenues from tariffs and duties in order to help pay for the cost of the Civil War. As it ALWAY HAPPENS when you give government an inch they take it ALL THE WAY!!! Now that one simple act of collecting tariffs and duties has morphed into what we now have today where each US citizen is under the thumb of a goose-stepping Nazi like regime we call the IRS and its enforcement branch known as the CID(Criminal Investigation Dept)and as a prior poster correctly said has broad authority to essentially be an IRS SWAT TEAM who can BUNKER BUSTER their way into your home any time day or night without warrants. This is unprecedented power not in the least CONSTITUTIONAL!

The IRS is NOT a private entity like the US Federal Reserve Bank is but in 2006 the IRS did start to subcontract out tax collection to private firms. If you will recall the IRS was in the hot seat back then because of their abusive ways of attacking taxpayers and was forced by Congressional hearings to reduce staff of over zealous tax collectors(IRS AGENTS). I believe even 60 Minutes did a ... WOW ... US CONGRESS you're TUFF on that mean old IRS! HA!! What a load of GRANDSTANDING that was since all the IRS did was go behind Congress's back and outsource to private firms and I am sure their staff layoffs probably found work over at these private firms with pay raises! This is the same cowardly acts the Bush administration took to avoid an official DRAFT for their WAR ON TERROR, they instead outsourced the DRAFT to private companies like BLACKWATER, which the US TAXPAYER picks up the tab for at a 400% increased cost over using regular ARMY/MARINE soldiers. YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK!!

So the upshot is as the US government so grows the US DEBT and in order to keep this debt ever expanding then tax revenues have to expand and as tax revenues expand you can bet your bottom peso that the IRS will expand in size and power. Once again the US TAXPAYER is the victim ... What will our MASTERS do when we US TAXPAYERS are totally and completely TAPPED OUT? The PRINTING will rise in exponential increments and the US government will unleash the worst tax of all ... the hidden tax of inflation!

It all ties into honest money and we don't have any...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY !!!

ALOHA !!

MORE BANKS FAILED OVER THE WEEKEND ...

READ ON:
Regulators Close Two More National Banks
By Alison Vekshin
Bloomberg News
Saturday, July 26, 2008; D01

First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank were closed by U.S. regulators yesterday, the first institutions to fail since regulators seized IndyMac Bancorp two weeks ago following a run by depositors.

First National Bank of Nevada, with $3.4 billion in assets, and California-based First Heritage Bank, which had $254 million in assets,were under capitalized, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said last night in a statement. Mutual of Omaha Bank acquired their deposits, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which was named the receiver.

"All depositors, including those with deposits in excess of the FDIC's insurance limits, will automatically become depositors of Mutual of Omaha Bank for the full amount of their deposits," the FDIC said.

The banks, owned by First National Bank Holding Co. of Scottsdale, Ariz., are the sixth and seventh to fail this year as the financial-services industry grapples with failed loans stemming from the worst housing slump since the Depression.

Regulators closed IndyMac Bancorp, a California mortgage lender with more than $19 billion in deposits, on July 11, in the third-largest federal seizure of a financial company.

Mutual of Omaha Bank will assume all deposits and some assets of both banks, and their 28 offices in Arizona, California and Nevada will open Monday as branches of the Omaha bank, the FDIC said.

First Heritage, a national bank chartered in 2005, had three branches and mainly served corporations. First National Bank of Nevada, chartered in 1987, also operated as First National Bank of Arizona with 25 branches, the regulators said.

Lenders on the FDIC's "problem list" grew to 90in the first quarter from 76 in the fourth quarter of 2007, the FDIC said in May. The FDIC insures deposits at 8,494 institutions with $13.4 trillion in assets. The OCC is an agency of the Treasury Department that regulates national banks.

U.S.bank regulators closed First Integrity Bank, based in Minnesota, and ANB Financial in Arkansas in May; Hume Bank in Missouri in March; and Douglass National Bank in Missouri in January. The four lenders had $2.2 billion in assets and losses estimated at $225 million.END

To fund all this US treasury 10-year auctions will be stepped up from quarterly to monthly. More DEBT please!

READ ON:
US Treasury to boost 10-year note sales as fiscal deficit swells

WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - Faced with a swelling federal budget deficit as a slowing economy saps tax revenues, the U.S. Treasury is expected to boost the frequency of 10-year note sales and offer more 30-year bonds next month.

Analysts estimate the Treasury will announce plans to sell $15 billion to $16 billion in 10-year notes and $9 billion to $10 billion in long bonds at its refunding announcement on Wednesday.

"There's a realization that these higher deficits are going to be with us for a while because the outlook for growth in the second half and into next year has deteriorated," said Lou

Analysts widely anticipate that the 10-year note auctions will move from quarterly to monthly, with new issues and reopenings every other month. It sold $15 billion 10-year-notes and $6.0 billion in 30-year bonds in the last quarter…END

Housing bill - There must be some doubt?

So, with the anticipated approval and passing of the housing bill, conventional wisdom indicates financials would greatly benefit beginning Monday (or before?). I can understand the drop in financials with the dissapointing existing home sales report, but this should've been old news to our ears...

There still remains no doubt in my mind that the bill will in fact be ratified, except for market indicators seeming to indicate otherwise: Financials were thrashed, even into after hours.

after hours-
SKF - up
UGY/FRE/FNM - all dn

duh, what am I overlooking?

The rising bank failures maybe?

ALOHA !!

So much for a STRONG DOLLAR POLICY!!! We have now put foreign holders of US DEBT on notice that we will devalue our dollar to the lowest levels possible in order to bailout every failed financial entity in the USA. I will translate for you ... "We politicians passed this HOUSING BILL because if we didn't we would no longer be in power!"

ADIOS SENOR US PESO ...

But, never forget the massive interventions that will come on Sunday when markets open in Australia and Asia to convince the World that the US PESO can have its cake and eat it too! These interventions will fail in the long run ...

Okay we've bailed out the $6tril housing market, what about all the retiring baby boomers? Will we also be able to afford a $45tril bailout for Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds that are running on fumes? I smell a massive renege coming!!!

None of this makes any fiscal sense whatsoever, so now you know why the GAO-US COMPTROLLER GENERAL quit so fast and now you know why Goldman Sachs is covering massive gold short positions on the TOCOM! It's CYA time!

READ ON:
Senate passes landmark housing bill
Controversial measure aims to help borrowers, bolster the housing market and provide a fail-safe for Fannie and Freddie. Bush is likely to sign it soon.

* How housing rescue bill can help you
* Problem banks: What you need to know
* Senate passes landmark housing bill
* Mortgage industry grilled in Washington

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Senate on Saturday overwhelmingly passed a landmark housing bill that will offer up to $300 billion in loans for troubled homeowners and establish a government rescue plan for mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The House passed the bill on Wednesday just hours after President Bush reversed his long-standing vow to veto the bill. Bush is expected to sign it soon.

The legislation, one of the most far-reaching on housing in decades, marks the centerpiece of Washington's efforts to address the nation's housing meltdown.

"This legislation won't perform miracles. But as others have said, it's a step - and I hope an important step - to putting our nation on the road to economic recovery," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and a principal author of the bill.

Following the vote, Dodd said he will meet on Tuesday with representatives from the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and the Department of Housing and Urban Development to discuss how the legislation can be implemented as quickly as possible. "I'm not going to tolerate a slow walk," he said.

Though the Senate vote was 72 to 13, the bill was not without its staunch opponents.

Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, the leading Republican taxwriter, had supported earlier versions of the legislation but objected to the rescue plan for Fannie and Freddie. "This bill has fallen prey to the special interests on Wall Street and K Street at an unjustifiable expense to taxpayers and homeowners on Main Street," Grassley said.

The White House also objected to parts of the bill, including aid to states to buy foreclosed properties. But White House Press Secretary Tony Fratto said the measures concerning Fannie and Freddie are "urgently needed now ... President Bush will sign this bill when he receives it, despite our concerns with some provisions." MORE

ALOHA !!

More of this will be coming ...

It is amazing that the home auction took place while the dead body was still in the house! How do these people that run these scams sleep at night?

I prefer to hear stories about bankers driving off collapsed bridges that the US government can't afford to repair!

My bet is the oil companies CEOs are at fault for this!

READ ON:
Foreclosure leads to woman’s suicide
Taunton wife and mother takes her own life as mortgage company plans to auction house

A 53-year-old wife and mother fatally shot herself soon after faxing a letter to her mortgage company saying that by the time they foreclosed on her house that day, she would be dead.

Police in Taunton said Carlene Balderrama used her husband's high-powered rifle to kill herself Wednesday afternoon, after faxing the letter at 2:30 p.m.

The mortgage company called police, who found Balderrama's body at 3:30 p.m. in her brown-shingled raised ranch house.

The auction was scheduled to start at 5 p.m. and interested buyers arrived at the property in Taunton, about 35 miles south Boston, while Balderrama’s body was still inside, according to police chief Raymond O'Berg.

Police did not immediately release the name of the mortgage company. O’Berg said Balderrama’s fax read, in part, “By the time you foreclose on my house I'll be dead.”

O’Berg also said a suicide note found next to Balderrama told her husband, John, and 24-year-old son to “take the [life] insurance money and pay for the house.”

Joe Whitney, who works with Balderrama’s husband, a plumber, said Balderrama handled the bills and her husband did not know about the impending foreclosure.

“John didn't even know about it, that's the surprise,” Whitney said told The Boston Globe. “It’s just one of those awful, awful tragic events.”

Neighbors on this forested side street said Balderrama had lived in the two-story, brown-shingled, raised ranch for about four years with her husband, John, who is a plumber, and their 24-year-old son. END

Re jr golds

Looks like a change in trend is in the works from base metals and oil to gold stocks that were out of favour per djuspm:gold A money flow thing? Maybe I am not so sure.
http://tinyurl.com/5l4w84

kaimu - you are absolutely right about most all your points!!!! And I agree. I think even the most objective must also agree. So why is it government just keeps on balooning? For all the wrong reasons, that's why.... The federal government is a great big battle ship with too much momentum.

Have you ever stood on the shores of Chesapeake bay or San Francisco bay and observed ship traffic? I have, many times. Every US citizen should take the opportunity...you will witness container ships arriving stacked full with cargo and departing nearly empty. Oil tankers arrive with waves licking their gunwhales, while military ships and submarines coming and going, litter the bay, disrupting mamillian sea life with their powerful sonar.

It's been this way since I was a child, and still, when I'm standing on shore I watch in amazement. The situation is really sad. The most effective vote Americans have ever had, is with their wallets and pocket books. Now perhaps, they will have only one choice in their vote.

Sittin' on the dock of the bay....

I missed this tidbit last week. At least someone in Congress still know how to have a good time......

Stones keyboardist Leavell jams with House members

http://tinyurl.com/663e76

Its encouraging to see all the learning, sharing, and caring going on on this blog........a jam session of the minds........

Nemo - must be...

2nd
Let the market go up and at the same time check VIX. Market is high and VIX is low at this time one wants to buy OEX PUT. Premium will be low because of low VIX
Always make sure expire date is more than 6 week away
So, one has OEX put
Now when market goes down VIX goes up, so premium of put goes up more than if VIX stay constant
You get about six chance a year to get setup like this and at that tie go for the kill
Also I keep note of OEX and premium of 3 put and 3 call for every day from beginning of new option month. So, I have better idea if premium they are asking makes the sense?
When market is going up buy OEX PUT and when market is going down but OEX call

For day trading in OEX I stick to 2 or 3 contract and intension is to make few hundred bucks a day
Trader here does not hold my hand. They usually will say buy some OEX put you will do well
That’s all
And waiting for next perfect setup, and hope I am right like last two time

2nd
here is first paragraph

OEX trade where I had 30 contract couple of time is base on few things. I will try to put it here and that is from trader here
Market goes up and down around 5% around every 8 week

2nd
If you look at action on Friday
-OEBTN premium was bouncing around 7.20 to 8. 80
And market was going nowhere
I like this situating for day trade. Should have made 3 to 4 trip around 7.20 to 8.20
Buy, because of job it is hard to do

Because of change in necked short rules, when people with necked short start to cover it financial started move higher that force other short to cover it and financial move even higher.
Now these other short gave this stock back to HB&B from where they borrow it to short
So, HB&B now have this financial stock they do not want and they dump them on Thursday and market went down with it.
How much more of these financial are left with BH&B? They want to get rid off.

Media is advising to buy bank stock, they are at bottom. What a game?
Even these big banks do not know how much write down them going to have next quarter and next quarter. They are setting ever large amount as reserve against default every quarter. Is like patient does not know if he is well or sick in this case how is a
Doctor is going to diagnose him? This bank does not know about their financial position
Because it changes day to day

"Great-googly Moogly" . . .

Australia has written down the toxic off-balance sheet financial crud . . .

Will this force Wall St. to face the music?

http://tinyurl.com/5gh6uw

vinod- i have no idea how much banks will end up writing off (as you point out, they may not even know themselves)...these are indeed 'interesting times,' but should either the US or global economy collapse into a protracted depression, keep in mind that during and after every catastrophe in history (financial or otherwise) those who kept their heads came out ahead, sometimes way ahead...

BP - Good article. Advice about raising equity certainly has validity.

2nd - Case in point, many fine folk fell victim to French guillotines.

In the event some of you are not aware of this fellow. He's a financial, forensic, proctologist.

This on Goldman Sachs:

http://boombustblog.com/content/view/485/34/

Kaimu,

Sorry for not responding sooner regarding the pedigree of the IRS. This is really not my field, and as I mentioned, the whole thing is a bit messy by design. There are numerous researchers out there much better versed in these issues than I.

Link of pertinent references followed by the first three points addressed by the link:

http://tinyurl.com/e4xmv

1. Is the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) an organization within the U.S. Department of the Treasury?

Answer: No. The IRS is not an organization within the United States Department of the Treasury. The U.S. Department of the Treasury was organized by statutes now codified in Title 31 of the United States Code, abbreviated “31 U.S.C.” The only mention of the IRS anywhere in 31 U.S.C. §§ 301‑310 is an authorization for the President to appoint an Assistant General Counsel in the U.S. Department of the Treasury to be the Chief Counsel for the IRS. See 31 U.S.C. 301(f)(2).

At footnote 23 in the case of Chrysler Corp. v. Brown, 441 U.S. 281 (1979), the U.S. Supreme Court admitted that no organic Act for the IRS could be found, after they searched for such an Act all the way back to the Civil War, which ended in the year 1865 A.D. The Guarantee Clause in the U.S. Constitution guarantees the Rule of Law to all Americans (we are to be governed by Law and not by arbitrary bureaucrats). See Article IV, Section 4. Since there was no organic Act creating it, IRS is not a lawful organization.

2. If not an organization within the U.S. Department of the Treasury, then what exactly is the IRS?

Answer: The IRS appears to be a collection agency working for foreign banks and operating out of Puerto Rico under color of the Federal Alcohol Administration (“FAA”). But the FAA was promptly declared unconstitutional inside the 50 States by the U.S. Supreme Court in the case of U.S. v. Constantine, 296 U.S. 287 (1935), because Prohibition had already been repealed.

In 1998, the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit identified a second “Secretary of the Treasury” as a man by the name of Manual Díaz-Saldaña. See the definitions of “Secretary” and “Secretary or his delegate” at 27 CFR 26.11 (formerly 27 CFR 250.11), and the published decision in Used Tire International, Inc. v. Manual Díaz-Saldaña, court docket number 97‑2348, September 11, 1998. Both definitions mention Puerto Rico.

When all the evidence is examined objectively, IRS appears to be a money laundry, extortion racket, and conspiracy to engage in a pattern of racketeering activity, in violation of 18 U.S.C. 1951 and 1961 et seq. (“RICO”). Think of Puerto RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act); in other words, it is an organized crime syndicate operating under false and fraudulent pretenses. See also the Sherman Act and the Lanham Act.

3. By what legal authority, if any, has the IRS established offices inside the 50 States of the Union?

Answer: After much diligent research, several investigators have concluded that there is no known Act of Congress, nor any Executive Order, giving IRS lawful jurisdiction to operate within any of the 50 States of the Union.

Their presence within the 50 States appears to stem from certain Agreements on Coordination of Tax Administration (“ACTA”), which officials in those States have consummated with the Commissioner of Internal Revenue. A template for ACTA agreements can be found at the IRS Internet website and in the Supreme Law Library on the Internet.

However, those ACTA agreements are demonstrably fraudulent, for example, by expressly defining “IRS” as a lawful bureau within the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (See Answer to Question 1 above.) Moreover, those ACTA agreements also appear to violate State laws requiring competitive bidding before such a service contract can be awarded by a State government to any subcontractor. There is no evidence to indicate that ACTA agreements were reached after competitive bidding processes; on the contrary, the IRS is adamant about maintaining a monopoly syndicate.

Kaimu,

Sorry for not responding sooner regarding the pedigree of the IRS. This is really not my field, and as I mentioned, the whole thing is a bit messy by design. There are numerous researchers out there much better versed in these issues than I.

Link of pertinent references followed by the first three points addressed by the link:

http://tinyurl.com/e4xmv

1. Is the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) an organization within the U.S. Department of the Treasury?

Answer: No. The IRS is not an organization within the United States Department of the Treasury. The U.S. Department of the Treasury was organized by statutes now codified in Title 31 of the United States Code, abbreviated “31 U.S.C.” The only mention of the IRS anywhere in 31 U.S.C. §§ 301‑310 is an authorization for the President to appoint an Assistant General Counsel in the U.S. Department of the Treasury to be the Chief Counsel for the IRS. See 31 U.S.C. 301(f)(2).

At footnote 23 in the case of Chrysler Corp. v. Brown, 441 U.S. 281 (1979), the U.S. Supreme Court admitted that no organic Act for the IRS could be found, after they searched for such an Act all the way back to the Civil War, which ended in the year 1865 A.D. The Guarantee Clause in the U.S. Constitution guarantees the Rule of Law to all Americans (we are to be governed by Law and not by arbitrary bureaucrats). See Article IV, Section 4. Since there was no organic Act creating it, IRS is not a lawful organization.

2. If not an organization within the U.S. Department of the Treasury, then what exactly is the IRS?

Answer: The IRS appears to be a collection agency working for foreign banks and operating out of Puerto Rico under color of the Federal Alcohol Administration (“FAA”). But the FAA was promptly declared unconstitutional inside the 50 States by the U.S. Supreme Court in the case of U.S. v. Constantine, 296 U.S. 287 (1935), because Prohibition had already been repealed.

In 1998, the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit identified a second “Secretary of the Treasury” as a man by the name of Manual Díaz-Saldaña. See the definitions of “Secretary” and “Secretary or his delegate” at 27 CFR 26.11 (formerly 27 CFR 250.11), and the published decision in Used Tire International, Inc. v. Manual Díaz-Saldaña, court docket number 97‑2348, September 11, 1998. Both definitions mention Puerto Rico.

When all the evidence is examined objectively, IRS appears to be a money laundry, extortion racket, and conspiracy to engage in a pattern of racketeering activity, in violation of 18 U.S.C. 1951 and 1961 et seq. (“RICO”). Think of Puerto RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act); in other words, it is an organized crime syndicate operating under false and fraudulent pretenses. See also the Sherman Act and the Lanham Act.

3. By what legal authority, if any, has the IRS established offices inside the 50 States of the Union?

Answer: After much diligent research, several investigators have concluded that there is no known Act of Congress, nor any Executive Order, giving IRS lawful jurisdiction to operate within any of the 50 States of the Union.

Their presence within the 50 States appears to stem from certain Agreements on Coordination of Tax Administration (“ACTA”), which officials in those States have consummated with the Commissioner of Internal Revenue. A template for ACTA agreements can be found at the IRS Internet website and in the Supreme Law Library on the Internet.

However, those ACTA agreements are demonstrably fraudulent, for example, by expressly defining “IRS” as a lawful bureau within the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (See Answer to Question 1 above.) Moreover, those ACTA agreements also appear to violate State laws requiring competitive bidding before such a service contract can be awarded by a State government to any subcontractor. There is no evidence to indicate that ACTA agreements were reached after competitive bidding processes; on the contrary, the IRS is adamant about maintaining a monopoly syndicate.

Aurelian - more on the sellout of shareholders

Another good think piece from S.America-based banker/blogger Otto Rock. He gives good reasons for his conclusions:

"Just as one example, the Haywood analyst covering ARU calls the Kinross offer "reasonable", when that same firm blatantly manipulated the market back in April by issuing a sell recommendation and a $1.40 share price target on ARU, then on the very same day buying blocks of shares from those that panicked at $3.50. Does Haywood seriously think its opinion counts any more?

As said, just one example of the BS noise and chatter around ARU now. But my previously stated belief that ARU has chickened out and accepted a lower-than-lowball bid as friendly due to sheer cowardice has only been strengthened today by the obvious doublespeak from its CEO. As mentioned previously, I do think a counter bid is possible. Not probable, but possible. However, if it comes it will not be due to the skills of Aurelian management, in fact quite the contrary. Any counter offer would come despite the total stupidity shown by the board of directors at Aurelian."

worth reading the whole post: http://tinyurl.com/5a6fy5

2 more banks bite the dust

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/26/fdic.banks.ap/index.html?eref=rss_latest

ALOHA !!

MtnGtx ... I am not sure you can trust Paul Andrew Mitchell as a "court tested" authority on the IRS. Just exactly what is a PRIVATE ATTORNEY GENERAL anyway, which is a seemingly self imposed title he has awarded himself?

As a "movant" in several high profile cases before the US District Court(California) he has gotten numerous high profile "tax protester" types put in jail. Noted failures of his are:

WE THE PEOPLE, the leader of the operation, Lynne Meredith, 55, of Sunset Beach, was sentenced yesterday to 121 months in prison. A federal jury last year convicted Meredith of conspiracy, four counts of mail fraud, two counts of using a false social security number, making a false statement in a passport application and five counts of failing to file a tax return.

*

Gayle Bybee, 57, of Sunset Beach, who received a prison sentence of 60 months. Bybee was convicted of conspiracy and three counts of failing to file a tax return.
*

Gregory Paul Karl, 55, of Solana Beach, who was sentenced to 20 months in prison. Karl, a former CPA, was convicted of conspiracy and four counts of mail fraud.
*

Teresa Manharth Giordano, 42, of Murrieta, who was sentenced to 40 months in prison. Giordano was convicted of conspiracy, four counts of mail fraud and two counts of failing to file a tax return.
*

Willie Watts, 46, of Murrieta, who was sentenced to 36 months in prison. Watts, a former CPA, was convicted of conspiracy, three counts of mail fraud and three counts of failing to file a tax return.

I would be cautious of these types and their legal claims and research. While not a defendant he didn't help five tax protesters stay out of prison! I was suspicious of his claims that the IRS was a private mafia type company with money laundering operations based in Puerto Rico.

If anyone here is ever thinking of "protesting" their taxes I would really consider the consequences as the IRS goes all out to ruin your life. Some people prevail in certain instances but most do not and even those that prevail must pony-up substantial legal funds for defense. Weigh your options ... I would not recommend it. As some prior Caraista posted "avoiding taxes is legal but evading taxes is illegal"! Exercise extreme caution in both instances because tax law is so complex and even my experience at the IRS showed my that even the IRS changes their own interpretation of tax law from time-to-time. The US Tax Code is like the Bible ... 100 people can read it and come up with 100 different interpretations and if you add in the IRS that makes it 101!

Its such an unfair and corrupt tax system which mirrors the US government and its money. Its extremely difficult for any one individual taxpayer to prevail against such powerful entities. The beginnings of this power came from corrupt politicians of 11913 who allowed the US Federal Reserve Bank system to exist.

How did I find this info? I went to Google and typed in the following search words "Supreme Law Firm Paul Mitchell Fraud" ...

Here is a link to one of his cases before the US District Court where the above five defendants ended up in jail. If what he cited was true and valid then it did not stand the test of a US District Court much less a US Supreme Court.

Link: http://www.supremelaw.org/cc/meredith/intervention.htm

ALOHA !!

Speaking of 1913, this is what the famous aviator Charles Lindberg said of the US Federal Reserve Act, passed in 1913:

READ ON:
Representative Charles Lindbergh Sr. called the Act “the worst legislative crime of the ages.” He warned prophetically:

“[The Federal Reserve Board] can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling

market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by greater rate variation, and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down.

“This is the strangest, most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. . . . The financial system has been turned over to . . . a purely profiteering group. The system is private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people’s money.END

This is how the private banks came to power ...

READ ON:
A major bank panic in 1907 led to a bill called the Aldrich Plan, which would have delivered control of the banking system to the Wall Street bankers. However, the alert opposition, led by William Jennings Bryan, saw through it and soundly defeated it. Bryan said he would not support any bill that resulted in private money being issued by private banks. Federal Reserve Notes must be Treasury currency, issued and guaranteed by the government; and the governing body must be appointed by the President and approved by the Senate.

To get their bill past the opposition in Congress, the Wall Street faction changed its name to the Federal Reserve Act and brought it three days before Christmas, when Congress was preoccupied with departure for the holidays. The bill was so obscurely worded that no one really understood its provisions. Its backers knew it would not pass without Bryan’s support, so in a spirit of apparent compromise, they made a show of acquiescing to his demands. Bryan said happily, “The right of the government to issue money is not surrendered to the banks; the control over the money so issued is not relinquished by the government . . . .”

That was what he thought; but while the national money supply would be printed by the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, it would be issued as an obligation or debt of the government to a private central bank. The Federal Reserve is wholly owned by a consortium of private banks; it is controlled by bankers; and it protects their interests. It issues Federal Reserve Notes (dollar bills) for the cost of printing them (or, more often, for the cost of entering numbers on a computer screen). This privately-issued money is then lent to the government, and it is owed back to the private Federal Reserve with interest. The interest is eventually refunded to the government, but only after the Fed deducts its operating expenses and a 6 percent guaranteed return for its bank shareholders. END

http://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&v=210&o=name

The WSJ kept adding new industries to their industry report, that I couldn't keep up. Nevertheless, I found something even better (more graphical and most of all not requiring any of my time!). See the link above.

FINVIZ is an extraordinary site. I'm told that they are working on real time data. If you've not seen the site or taken their 'guided tour' I promise you it will be worth your time---particularly for those of you (like me) that combine fundamental and technical analysis.

If you like what you see, be sure to give them feedback.

Kaimu - If the Federal reserve IS owned by a consortium of private banks, then it appears GS is the majority owner, correct?

CP- LOL...there are those who keep their heads, and those who keep their tails...

2nd - Yes, and HB&B are feasting on those lost heads and tails as we speak. Judging from history, my feeling is they will emerge as the winners when all is said and done.

"Let's talk about specific stocks.

This is a market where you want dominant companies with good balance sheets and that aren't dependent on financial intermediaries to fund their growth. There are plenty of dominant companies out there that are selling at attractive multiples.

Step back and think about Corning. There are thousands and thousands and thousands of retailers that sell flat-screen TVs. There are roughly 50 companies that make the panels. There are only three guys that make the glass. Typical U.S. companies are earning 14% or 15% on equity; Corning earns 27%. If you put in the recent numbers, it is higher than that. The stock sells at 10 times what we think they will earn next year, compared with about 13 times for the S&P. At the beginning of the year, the consensus for this year's earnings was $1.70 a share. Now it's $1.92. Next year, they were supposed to earn $1.84 and now it's up to $1.99. We think they'll do better than that. They're a world-class company in a growing industry. They claim -- and I just visited the company -- that just 10% of the market opportunity in flat-screen TVs has been penetrated."
Yahoo message board-GLW

stock up 3% friday. will report earning on 7/31/2008
May be good to trade for a week?
I have 2000 in my IRA

vinod - GLW Good catch! I was thinking the same thing. Almost bought in early June as a long.

GLW looks good on the chart, but all significant insider activity has been on the sell side, (a lot of it was from exercise of options). I suspect their numbers will be fine, but that's history. What'll they say about the future?

This may be a good week, except for GM on Tues and 5.5% unemployment Friday. 5.5% is getting up there...

"Earnings - Verizon Communications on Monday, General Motors Corp. on Tuesday, Walt Disney Co. on Wednesday, followed by oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. Thursday and Chevron Corp. Friday.

Meanwhile, the employment report on Friday is expected to show that the economy lost another 70,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 5.6% from 5.5%.

Ahead of this, investors will also monitor a survey of private-sector employment due Wednesday and weekly jobless numbers on Thursday.

Also on Thursday, the GDP report is expected to show the economy still grew 2.1% in second quarter, with a slumping dollar helping to boost exports."

GLW - considering purchase after GM earnings.

from barron
Bear markets eventually get to all equity sectors, notes Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at broker BTIG. After housing, retail, financials -- and energy last week -- have been hit, technology might be next for a further mauling, given the poor trading action and recent disappointing news out of Apple (ticker: AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT), he says

"I now try to formulate a macro or fundamental reason for a trade... Then I take a guess as to the relative probability of an upside move or a downside move given the recent market sentiment and action. It's been working on most trades lately.

I'm sure Vad would not approve of this technique
"

I am afraid you misconstrue my approach. I see nothing wrong with what you describe. It's a bit too broad stroke to discuss details of course but in general, if what you say means combining fundamental approach to define the sector/direction and technical to define timing - I am all for it. Now, not using stops is not my cup of tea, that's true.

I also take sever umnbrage (just kidding of course) with "we are CONDEMNED to day trading" part. If daytrading is some kind of hell sinninbg traders are being condemned to, then I need to look for horns on my balding top, because I am so very comfortable there.

OK, that was a joke but seriously... there is no good or bad timeframe, it's purely a matter of personal preferences and risk tolerance. If a market's volastility forces traders into shorter timeframe right now - it happened before, clean long-standing trends are rather rarity. Adapt and roll with punches is the name of the game

Vad, thanks for your calm response. I didn't mean to be critical. Short term trading is relatively new to me, so I'm on a steep learning curve. I appreciate your comments and think about them. I know I'm my worst enemy, so it's important to have experienced POVs like yours.

"Condemned to day trading" was a joke. I actually like it, but I sure have made a heck a lot more by picking medium and LT positions. I've been a bit freaked out lately, because my last 10 trades have all been very profitable, and they've been a mix of longs and shorts. It convinces me that hubris is setting in and I'd better reexamine my ideas.

I've been mainly "trend" trading lately, and not trying to predict the short term (one week?) trend, but observing it and getting on the profitable side of it. I'm also avoiding getting into positions that don't follow my plan. I do hold one odd residual position from last week: 2000 shares of HOV that I bought expecting a bounce in HB due to the passage of the housing bill. It didn't sell at my limit, so I held rather than taking a small loss. I actually like the company and would like to try to pick the bottom (which $7 is probably not), so I don't mind waiting til the president announces he will sign the housing bill (Monday?) to sell.

You know, over the years, I've found that as 2nd says, positions that make one uncomfortable are often the good ones. It's really just the old "buy when there's blood in the streets." You're right that there is no good or bad timeframe.

BTW, in case you are curious, so far this year I'm up only about 4% overall, which is my worst first 6 months since 1998 and the Asian meltdown.

"It's really just the old "buy when there's blood in the streets."...

...and on the sell side, "sell the peanuts when the circus is in town because when circus leaves who are you going to sell peanuts to" :)

"I sure have made a heck a lot more by picking medium and LT positions"

You know, it's a very interesting question - is size of winnings a function of a timeframe or merely of how good one is at what he does. Of course there are inherent limitations to shorter time frame... but on the other side of equation is a limited risk, right? I tend to think, one's skill has more impact on how much can be made in one's chosen timeframe. After all, there are people making money in day trading and in long term trading, and there are people losing money in either, right? I am open to other opinions though

Portfolio Madness: Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide

http://tinyurl.com/643n5y

CLSA's Greed and Fear June newsletter can be found here, well worth the read.

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/files/gf080619f_445.pdf

Re: Decline In Oil Prices

The decline in oil prices are an important development in the collapse of the credit markets, because the growth in collatoralized debt obligations depends on constant, chronic inflation in oil prices.

As long as money flows into counterparty credit derivative swaps during price declines, then the sum total of notional off balance sheet paper is kept in balance. High oil prices are as a result of speculation in the banking/brokerage sector, not as a function of supply/demand or speculation in the energy markets exactly.

It goes without saying that oil price inflation is directly in step with foreign interventionism in the interest of securing large supplies for dominant players in the industry.

The part where it gets interesting is when oil prices don't stop correcting, that's when the real trouble emerges.

Compare precious metals markets, where much of the credit involved in that space is held in short interest, and the futures chains are in a healthy contango. I would say that the awareness that gold will differentiate itself particularily from oil price collapses will grow in the ensuing weeks.

That tossing in gold with oil as a commodity won't be that simple, since more currency dislocations are likely to occur. Oil is moving past its seasonal high, but gold is just moving into a long seasonal uptrend with a peak sometime in October and later once again in April.

If Oil prices are meant to correct very sincerly, they could capitulate well below $100 to near the 89-week EMA. I would be looking for the crossover of the 13-week EMA and the 34-week EMA. Since this might mean at the same time that banks/brokerages might not be providing growing amounts of derivatives in trade, then liquidity sources for trade in oil futures will dry up as well.

Re: Gold Junior

Aside from that, I had speculated some time ago that if you took a fibonnaci overlay of a junior gold stock and set the extreme at the bottom to a theoretical limit of zero, you could come up with the price where the stock is likely to correct. Of course, it would be different for mania stocks, as many of these are. ICI.TO worked out well and serves as an example of price expections in the junior gold sector:

stockcharts.com ICI.TO

http://tinyurl.com/6bsmu9

[Bill Cara note: ICI.TO is one of my favorites among all the junior mining exploration plays. Their head geologist Gerth Pierce is a good friend.]

"..positions that make one uncomfortable are often the good ones. It's really just the old "buy when there's blood in the streets."

i would break it down further:

(a) in the ST, think there's a sound psychological basis to "uncomfortable" positions playing out-> assuming your emotional response to the position matches that of most investors, then by actively moving into a "discomfort zone" you have taken a contrarian position...and contrarian positions play out for the usual reasons...

(b) however, they don't ALWAYS play out, which is why the investing lexicon (IMO) is filled with contradictory phrases: buying when there's blood in the streets pays off, except when it doesn't (and then you can fall back on never catching a falling knife, which also works until it doesn't)...

(c) although discomfort plays out in the ST, i think in the LONG TERM the crowd tends to be right (o/w, analysis would never make sense)...which is why a fundamentally good trade will eventually pay off...

(d) once the LT position pays off, you then have to make the decision to SELL...if you don't, then you fall into the trap of buy-and-hold-> any position held long enough runs into the problem of "nothing lasts forever-"... things change, and even good companies go through business cycles, or out of business altogether...

so I would say Vad is right-> size of winnings depends more on how well you manage positions within various time frames, and not on the time frame itself...

I'm really looking forward to the Cara Global 20 report. It's too bad we won't have reports like the GG one some months ago, because it would be interesting to see an update in light of an outlook of continued pressure on gold.

[Bill Cara note: I have been spending the past several months getting prepared for client services. The good news is that after we commence Sept 1, I'll be more specific in my blog and in the reports.]

Alzheimer's:

http://tinyurl.com/6958om

"Currently, the prognosis for patients with Alzheimer's is bleak. The Alzheimer's treatment market is small, led by Pfizer Inc.'s Aricept, Forest Laboratories Inc.'s Namenda, Razadyne from Johnson & Johnson and Shire Ltd., Novartis AG's Exelon and Sciele Pharma Inc.'s Cognex. But while those drugs fight Alzheimer's symptoms, they can't stop its ultimate progress.

Wyeth and Elan Corp. are currently developing a new kind of Alzheimer's treatment, bapineuzumab, which is designed to actually slow progress of the disease. In June, study data showed that drug was shown to benefit Alzheimer's patients who lacked a certain gene."

in the sixties silver bullets in the form of second-generation penicillins and first-generation cephalosporins rendered the treatment of many bacterial infectious diseases routine...in the seventies treatment regimens for cancer became standardized, and gave us cool-sounding acronyms like CHOP...in the eighties receptor-blockade took off, giving us the H2 blockers (Zantac/Pepcid) and non-sedating H1 blockers (Claritin/Zyrtec) you buy off the shelf today...nineties-> HIV research and development built many of today's biotechnology powerhouses...

boomers will not be heading off into the sunset easily-> investing in companies at the forefront of neurological disorders may pay off big...

...keep in mind also that "technology," "biotechnology," "information technology," ad infinitum are NOT in reality separate fiefdoms...the ultimate goal is to enable a person to DO something easier/faster/safer at a fraction of the cost of older technologies...do you have a type of cancer endemic in Guangodng province? Buy a ticket to Guangzhou and find an oncologist and nurses who know exactly how to take of you...

...not your cup of tea? someone is out there has/can translate results of controlled studies in Southern China into English (which are, of course, not possible in the US due to lack of subjects)...

2nd, my wife is from Beijing. I'm curious about how the country responds to a global slowdown. And how the stock market responds. My hunch is that a short on the China market works over the 6 months following the Olympics.

BTW we skipped a trip to China this year due to the Olympics. We'll spend July 2009 there.

allen- athletes began moving into the olympic village today...should be a very interesting month...beijing will not fail to deliver on the games- that, IMO, is a given...

the SSEC? still on its way up, IMO, but who am i to tell beijing what makes sense ...there is more to the world's view of "china" than the state of its stock market, after all-> one of the world's oldest and most advanced cultures is not about to bend to my very narrow view of things...

if you don't already know why the opening date is 8/8/08, your wife will ;)

speaking of the olympics, my 6-year-old completed his first swim team time trials this weekend (LOL)...how the world has changed...i recall taking a few lessons in competitive swimming one summer in menlo park when i was 15-> the only thing i remember is the instructor, a beautiful teacher who taught at one of the local high schools in the area (sequoia, i think)->she convinced me i should try out for team my junior year, but that's the summer my dad lost his job and we moved to the mid-west...

Re Chinese market - the link posted by dr.cosa earlier http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/07/bill_caras_community_chat_fri_14.html#c64517
is worth reading. Fairly positive, based on fundamentals.

allen- my mom was born and raised in beijing...war broke out while she was studying the States and unable to visit her family again until 1977...both of my uncles retired from beijing university within the last ten years...

Banks - Perhaps another aspect (concerning financials) to keep in mind is that while some banks remain destined to fail, those with good revenue streams (retail banks) are likely to survive the storm.

Is anyone besides me thinking SSO at this point?

CP- this blog is what switched me into a global view of the markets-> my short list of banks would include DB, HBC, IBN (all in the Cara 100)...WFC is the only US bank i'm 100% positive on (wife used to work for them, and is very confident of their mgmt team)...

SSO? vinod has me weaned off the ultrahorts, and turned on to OEX options..LOL

SSEC balancing along the 2900 line...my bet is it takes off before the close...

2nd
I hope I did not disturb your trading system
I my self heard about OEX about 4 month ago.
I still do not know what stock is in OEX
My intension is to make money using whatever works

vinod- wrong word, man...you 'enhanced' my trading system...;)

2nd - Banks such as BAC and WFC are the type I was referencing. Those whom have revenue streams in parallel with realestate.

I have been considering foreign markets also, and at this point I believe there's better opportunity for gain in India than China... Just getting started on this train of thought though...

Gains are gains... some larger than others.

components of the OEX:

http://tinyurl.com/62u3je

This is kind of amusing

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2009438#post2009438

2nd
I have intention to buy CAF/FXI
I do thinks that because Olympic, they may try to pump up market

MES - how about this one for foreign investment? LOL...

^OEX - A great list of components, should do well. SSO is the broader and double S&P500.

procol - Ha! The frontal lobe sheen comes from having to say OH S**T and palm the forehead too many times!!!

Bill,

Enjoyed your WIR. A question about Palladium. If it is entering "bear country" as you suggest then does that presage somehow a bear in the other precious metals? Is gold making a kind of a double top on the weekly chart?

vinod- wondering if anyone has studied the performance of host stock market indexes pre- and post-games...

in the year leading up to the games:

1984 United States S&P up 17 percent

1988 Korea Kospi up 90 percent

1992 Spain IBEX up 33 percent *

1996 United States S&P 500 up 33 percent

2000 Australia ASX 200 up 14 percent

2004 Greece ASE up 29 percent

so china is DOWN 32%...what do you expect with a country that reads from right to left and marks gains in red/losses in green? it's going up AFTER the olympics, right?

CP- no, that's paulson getting ready to salute the real boss...

Yea, Paulson's gonna get a new boss alright!!!

..that or Mom wants him to cut the racket in the basement and come up for dinner...

Wonder when momma's coming to clean up his mess??

shark - you can take off the tin hat now...

CALM- is not what CALM shorts are experiencing this morning...about to get squeezed to a new 52-wk high...

Interesting story on Paulson:

http://tinyurl.com/5cr8bb

I found this quote somewhat contra-indicative, or pure PR:

"While Mr. Paulson’s weak communication skills make him a notoriously hobbled public speaker, in private he still can be a good listener. “He lacks the fluidity of a Bob Rubin, but he can be very persuasive,” Mr. Dodd says.

For his part, Mr. Paulson has the confidence and self-awareness to cop to some of these faults.

“I’m not an inspirational leader,” he told the Dartmouth Alumni Magazine in 2003. “I’m just not.”

IF Mr. Paulson, 62, has been something of a fish out of water in Washington, he was sometimes that way on Wall Street as well.

At Goldman Sachs he didn’t golf or drink, and he often left dinners with senior executives at 8:45 p.m. so he could go to bed. He shunned the Hamptons scene, spending free weekends in Barrington, Ill., where he and his wife, Wendy, built a house in 1974, down the road from his mother, Marianna.

He has impeccable Republican credentials and raised funds for George W. Bush. Friends are quick to point out that both he and Wendy, a Democrat, are ardent bird watchers and environmentalists. (Mr. Paulson, who wanted to be a forest ranger before he chose a financial career, was chairman of the Nature Conservancy until he took the Treasury job.)

He shuns the trappings of great wealth in other ways as well. He donated $100 million of his Goldman stock to a family foundation dedicated to conservation and environmental education and has said he would give the remainder of his fortune, which stood at about $500 million in 2006, to charity when he dies. He told one reporter that he loved his children too much to leave them money."