Congratulations Bill, you must feel a deserved level of satisfaction with what you've done here. Thanks

Regarding Google-no surprise-last quarter's "outstanding" performance was masked by currency gain. The trends Google cited this report were already there.

Folks, I wanted to share a website with you:

http://www.gbn.com/

This is part of the Monitor Group, which I believe is the largest scenario planning consultancy in the world. It has it's roots in the work of Arie DeGeus from Shell and Peter Schwartz.

It's a source of mental stretching, since we're all human here (Kaimu excepted), we're likely to get up in group think at some point because, well, we are Caraistas, so how could we be wrong!
(There but for the grace of ...) Anyway, have a good day. Thanks again, Bill.

pre-market exit-> after reading bill's comments this morning:

"For long-term oriented traders, this is a nervous time. A rally of +485 points in the DJIA is unsustainable."

cleared off remaining positions in UYG, HBC, WFC, GE, SNDK, GFI, and the last half of ELSR around 9.50...still have 50% positions in BA, UPS, FDX, but may clear those off at the open as well...

95% cash moving towards 100%...catalyst for changing my mind was, of course, the rally in financials-> anyone with common sense would take money off after a move like that, no?

good luck today...

did i say ELSR- meant ESLR..

2nd,

What do you think evergreen does this morning? How bad was the bad news?

Congrats Bill! You deserve it.

Re: housing rebound.

Every day the media is full of items about an impending housing rebound, and there are various interests espousing theories on how best to put a support under the housing market.

I believe the McMansionville housing model is broken, but people may not recognize this for some time. In my research I found an interesting item. In 1950 there were 290 sq. ft. of house per occupant; by 2003 this had moved up to 893 sq. ft., 3 times more.

I didn't note the source, but the trend is what is important. There are signs that this trend is about to reverse, and those in the housing market, both builders and purhasers, who don't recognize it will suffer financially.

Americans' wages have not kept up with the cost of living. In general, their balance sheets are not in good shape, and are deteriorating. In addition they are on the hook for all the public debt run up by the governments so the economy would appear "strong and vibrant". And now, almost on a daily basis, the public are being saddled with bailing out the private sector. Energy costs are taking a larger share of families' incomes; some people are seeing heating oil quotes for this winter at twice last year's rate.

The end result is inevitable, a reduction in the ability of the public to finance big houses. New purchasers will opt for smaller, energy efficient units close to work and near public transport. McMansionville in the 'burbs is doomed; it will become Suburbislum. Poor people, expelled from inner city areas will live in the 'burbs, 3 or 4 families per residence. The inner cities will be converted to multi-family residences for the middle class.

Of course this won't take place overnight. But I already see signs of families returning to three generations under one roof, simply to keep costs down. This is the way some of us grew up, and it was considered normal. More and more people will be renting out part of their residence, either as self-contained suites or as room-and-board.

All of this adds up to a trend to fewer square feet per occupant. There is no pent-up housing demand as the NAR would have you believe; there is a pent-up housing supply.

Just my thoughts, and I would welcome comments.

Possibility of big Central Bank gold sales to help try and stabilise the dollar

The prospect of new Central Bank sales of gold to try and contribute to dollar stabilisation is likely to be under consideration. Will this happen, and, if it does, what will be the likely effect on the gold market?

http://tinyurl.com/5m3ejj

Cara 100 Update:

Target Price Lowered:

GOOG - $680 to $657 @ Kaufman Bros.
UTX - $85 to $80 @ Lehman Bros.

---------------------------------------------------

Note to Sharkie:

ESLR just got the BUY call @ Wedbush Morgan.

looking for Spot Gold to drift down today towards the $940 level if the rally in broad markets and weakness in oil continues.

the shares are acting very weak relative to gold once again, and the Venture exchange in particular is falling day after day, even during the run up in mid/large cap mining shares. it seems the only way has been down for the JR's for some time, approaching multi-year lows relative to gold.

w/ respect to geo-political tensions im not buying the Iran hype currently being peddled in the major US outlet's at the moment, it is imho a diversionary tactic. Iran has been back and forth suspending and initiating "talk" with various officials for years and the only threats we hear from both sides are of the "if you attack us we will attack you" variety that are moral equivilants of "i know you are but what am i" blather.

until crude disruptions take place in iranian territorial waters, massive outflow of their funds from US or Euro denominated assets, or increased hostilities in their pet-project of Hezbollah in Lebanon, im not buying into the hype.

pakistan is another story all together. the story posted earlier about riots at the Pakistani stock exchange are the tip of the iceberg in a state where the populace is without a stable government and its northern regions bordering on Afghanistan are virtually separate states outside of their control.

this will all make for an interesting remainder of 2008.

[Bill Cara note: I detect some CIA presence in the disruption at the Pakistani Exchange. When I read that the US is considering re-establishing normal relations with Iran, something tells me that they plan to start withdrawing forces in Iraq and shifting to a Pakistani-Afghan focus, and in particular the mountainous region between the two where bin Laden is reported to be. Call me a cynic, but I guess the war to control Iraqi oil has been won and now the US forces will be directed to focus on bin Laden as well as the Taliban powers in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Watch for increased conflict within Pakistan while DC tries to balance the picture with lessening conflict with Iran.]

Perhaps there are still hope - since some companies and government agencies are paying attention to the main street.

Thank you Bill for providing a venue which we could voice our view, and thank you for all your insights on a bigger picture we often miss.

On GOOG, it's interesting that GOOG's employment # is up NOT down. GOOG is one company that "innovates", not "status quo". If they seize to innovate, it's time to get out. The sales/earning will be down as the world economy is contracting. If they start cutting people and cost, that's a warning signal. That's my take. Yours?

shark- pre-market indications were at 8.85 until the 'buy-' took it to 9.50..i would be buying at an 8 handle, which was my entry point last month...

Shark, run a 6mo daily chart of ESLR and you will see what it does and where to get in and out. If it breaks the lower channel then all bets are off.

Nice move 2nd....you caught a break as I saw it just above 9 and thought it had come in quite a bit.....closer to the lower channel of the above chart!

I'm running Bill's game plane today.
Looks like today may be the day to re-enter SKF, am watching the XLF chart like a hawk for a reversal.

Will also be keeping a sharp eye on TBT/IEF for any possible turn of events as I'd like to keep my TBT profits.

Good luck everyone!

c3,

GOOG is still hiring but at a significantly slower pace than in previous periods. This certainly isn't good news.

Regards

AURELIAN UPDATE ON ECUADORIAN MINING LAW AND POLITICAL PROCESS
Aurelian Resources Inc. has provided an update regarding Ecuador's draft mining law and expected political milestones over the coming months in response to shareholder requests.
On June 27, 2008 the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum (MMP) announced completion of work on a draft law. Preparation of the draft legislation involved an extensive consultation process with stakeholders such as communities, local governments, NGOs and mining companies, including Aurelian. The draft law was sent on the same day to President Rafael Correa, who is reviewing the document with his advisors. No update has been provided by the government as to when the final version of the draft law will be made public.
"An earlier version of the draft law posted on the MMP web site was reasonable," said Patrick F.N. Anderson, President and CEO. "We are confident that President Correa wants to see a responsible mining industry in Ecuador."
The potential passage of the new mining law would be part of a very full political calendar in Ecuador for the next year, including the following milestones as reported in the media:
- The new President of the Assembly, Fernando Cordero, stated that the Assembly will complete its work on July 25 and will deliver the proposed constitution to the Supreme Electoral Council. At this time the Assembly is to be dissolved and will probably be replaced by an interim legislative body, although details are still being debated regarding its start date, duration, composition, and legislative powers.
- Ecuadorean media have reported that the date for the referendum will be announced on August 21, and that this date will most likely be October 5 with final results to be published on October 21.
- Ecuadorean media have reported that the dates for general elections will be announced on November 6, followed by candidate inscriptions on December 10, elections on February 8, 2009 and results on March 10, 2009. If necessitated by a vote of less than 40% for the leading Presidential candidate, the second round of Presidential elections will occur on March 22, 2009, with final results on April 11, 2009. The newly elected legislative body will take office on April 26, 2009 and the new President will take office on May 3, 2009.
- All of these dates are projections made in Ecuadorean media. The official dates will be published by the relevant authorities

Bill, The SEC tripped at the finish line and let the abusers win this race again...they are proving in a very public forum how inept and how crooked they are. The SEC is fully aware that large hedge funds "rent out" the market maker exemption to avoid costs and to gain added leverage.

SEC Poised to Exempt Market-Makers From `Naked-Short' Sale Ban

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6vYdD7V5sB4&refer=home 

By Jesse Westbrook and Edgar Ortega

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to exempt market makers in stocks from an emergency rule aimed at preventing manipulation in shares of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 17 Wall Street firms.

The agency's staff, after conference calls to discuss the rule that limits the ability of traders to use abusive tactics when betting on a drop in share prices, agreed to requests by exchanges and brokerages to modify the terms.

Exchange officials had told regulators that without an exemption, market makers responsible for pairing off investor orders will struggle to keep transactions flowing and may raise costs for investors.

``The staff is recommending exceptions to the short-sale order for market makers of the 19 stocks and their derivatives from arranging to borrow in advance for short sales in their market-making and related hedging activities, to avoid constraining the market makers' provision of liquidity,'' SEC spokesman John Nester said in an e-mail from Washington. The full commission may vote as soon as today ...

David- in case you're wondering, TSO and VLO were swept off with the 50% of longs taken off yesterday-> oil down $16 and that's the best they could do, so i took it...will rebuild those positions after i clear my head on that trade...

shark- correction-> my last entry into ESLR was with a 9 handle...so 8 looks good...

SEC Trips at Finish Line; Fraud Wins

At the present time the SEC was in the process of engaging in unprecedented steps to insure that naked short selling does not damage the confidence of the banking industry and thus add additional burdens to our already fragile US Economy. The SEC had created an emergency order that was focused on preventing the abuses of naked short selling in the trading of our banking institutions by enforcing a pre-borrow requirement on all short sales executed.

In an editorial column published in Investors Business Daily SEC Chairman Chris Cox stated:

“Naked short selling can turbocharge these "distort and short" schemes. In a naked short, the usual process of short selling is circumvented, because the seller doesn't actually borrow the stock and simply fails to deliver it. For this reason, naked shorting can occur even when actual shares aren't available in the market. It allows manipulators to force prices down without regard to supply and demand.

Next week, the SEC will implement an emergency order designed to prevent naked short selling in the financial firms that the Federal Reserve Board has designated as eligible for access to its liquidity facilities. “

Read the rest here: http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/338

UPS/FDX off...

CAF! shoulda waited another day....
BA-> off...

shark, ESLR bad news? Good grief. They are executing their business plan. Moving from being a research stage company to full production. Nothing bad about that. Plenty bad about how everything they do is misinterpreted by an easily distracted market.

Don't panic.Some musings on the recent rally and what is one to do at the moment..
http://wallastoninvestments.com/the-most-incredible-spiral-of-gloom-nah-just-a-cycle-that-is-about-to-turn-sideways

SKF- trying a little at 141.07...

I find the topic of Iran very interesting.

The information flow about Iran in North America is so heavily skewed by the spin masters that you never really know what to believe. Iran is used as a scapegoat and attention diverting mechanism when in reality, nothing has changed for a decade with respect to their nuclear ambitions, bravado, and threats. In reality, they say "we know the only way you'll ever take us seriously is if we have nuclear power." It worked for North Korea and Pakistan. There's also sense to their civilian nuclear ambitions, since it's a country that needs to secure it's non-oil energy future without dependence on other states. It's a big country with sizable Uranium deposits.

In truth, Iran is partially collapsing under the weight of the bank related sanctions that are placed on the country. Trade and commerce are made difficult, and rampant inflation coupled with dropping quality of life are putting extreme internal pressures on the country. Meanwhile, the citizens in metropolitan Iran (which is half the population) have no choice but to continue living life in a dichotomous fashion where they ignore their dire situation in the hopes of seeking temporary happiness away from the eyes of the Revolutionary Guard while maintaining a facade in their public lives. Furthermore, the rich simply shy away from politics and enjoy the freedom they can purchase and live half their lives outside the country (in the US, Europe, and Dubai). Those with wealth and power have little to gain from war or serious international disturbances.

What's most interesting is that behind all the chest thumping on both sides, a lot of inconspicuous activities take place. Direct trade between the US and Iran rose 10x during the Bush Administration (nearing $150m), with tobacco products leading the way. Now we have this talk of setting up US diplomatic offices in Tehran to ease the process of getting Visas for travel to the US, and vice versa in NY.

In conclusion, the fear mongering about Iran, and the speculation surrounding Iran, is simply a method for shifting market sentiment when the HB&B need some help! That's not to say it's not possible that Israel may get super paranoid and launch and attack, but I think the whole world realizes that Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, and that an attack will have dire global consequences. As a final thought, consider that Russia, China, and India have much better relations with Iran than the West and an act of war against Iran could cause some serious rifts in the geopolitical map.

SKF- half off at 144...

Is DZZ and DGP easy to sell? Doesn't look like there is much activity for these 2 ETFs.

SKF- half back on at 142...

About GOOG,

I can say that I know that many people at Google are not enjoying this latest slide since stock options are a huge part of Google compensation and all these newly minted Googlers from the past year are simply seeing no possible return on their 1 year vesting stock options!

It's painful and it is evaporating the wealth of a lot of people, but at least Google is a company constantly innovating, and although their 20,000 employee size is going to slow them down and provide them with ample headaches, I think they're well poised to weather this storm and rebound as the markets turn.

On another note, I'm hanging on to my QLD until EOD to see if there is a small engineered rally to end the week (allowing me to dump the currently losing bet from yesterday at little cost).

can you believe C is up 8%?

C is up from 14.46 to 19.40 (a rise of 33%) in 3 days, all while posting $2.5B loss! This latest 8% is particularly baffling!

2nd,

And MER is only down 60 cents after reporting -$4.95 a share for the quarter.

Larry Kudlow must be smiling.

Regards

vinod- trying 3 -OEBTP @ 16.10...

taking a shot with a little eslr

2nd: you're a natural born killer on SKF. It will hone your daytrading skills like nothing else. Tricky today, I was in behind you and out at 144, then reloaded/sold a couple more times before seeing it pullback. Would like that mid 130's entry.

LOL..craig, if SKF hits 200 intraday i will fly out to seatac and buy you any drink you want at any bar i can find that plays seventies music...

Hmmm, I didn't see any wind power in Pickens' port post from yesterday. Or solar for that matter. But I do like his choice of MMR, it's doing well today....

SKF- adding at 139.33...

Fazeli - Great observation on GOOG innovating - That's how good companys become great companies.

No pain, no gain...

Truly amazing - platinum hitting multiweek lows and SWC going ballistic today with relentless buying.

I am just glad that I didn't get shaken out as it was a bit difficult to watch SWC/platinum sit out of the recent rally in gold/silver.

I added to the Uranium (U.TO) position again today. NYMEX U contracts have begun ticking up after being seemingly frozen for months. I am averaged in at $9.05.

well that obviously didnt work out took a ten cent stopout.

Anyone see that fat finger low on MON of 12.80?
Ouch!

ESLR - IMO, too much backlog here, 10lbs in 5lb sack.

SKF- so much for killer instinct...

shoulda followed charlie's plan and opened with 10 shares of SKF...

ESLR ... I'm holding, but I'd wait for the dust to settle before trying a trade.

Chicken, it is indeed ironic that a company that has more business than they can handle for the foreseeable future is getting beaten about the face and neck with such frequency. Great for traders, I suppose. And great for those with a long-term view and the patience to wait for opportunities to add to their positions and/or lower their cost basis via option selling.

BC - This one's a real brawler. Very resilient, nice surprise.

Well 2nd you know you can always go the other way if XLF takes out today's highs... I'd be surprised if it does- It just failed a retest of yesterday morning's high, looks like it's gonna try again.

If it breaks out to new highs today on on any kind of volume, I ain't standing in front of this train!! How many financial shorts have seen the insane moves we just saw & reloaded?

I meant to infer on the last sentence: that these new shorts (myself included) are prime squeeze meat.

2nd: I have found that patience is necessary for trading SKF. Most of my losses were from freaking out and not waiting (usually my fault for not using the same patience to enter)....but then it's your cash this time.....

Depending on how much fat you have in the fire, I would be watching the intraday high for the XLF as my line in the sand. (20.96) It's at 20.79-80 now with a weak 1 min chart.

Why wouldn't the market dump today? It is Friday in a bear market...

ESLR - maybe good for a trade on news, but when does the news stop coming? What other indicies can the day trader use here? Buy low, wait for news.... IMO.

Today is option expiration. As vinod said yesterday, all the puts bought recently were sold by HB&B. They want those to expire worthless, therefore, an 'up' day.

SKF - Don't fight the trend...., swim.

TG - Exactly, thks for spelling it out. Don't fight the FED(HB&B).

USO going down, UYG flying high.

I am down a few cents of FXP. If we get a good rally, I am going short over the weekend:

FXP,SKF,SRS - looking at these

closing in on a 3-day 600 point move in the DJIA...

Yeah, but meeting heavy resistance at the round number (11500), which seems to be resistance for the financials.

Some of the same profit taking we saw after mkt close last night, nervous Nellies? SKF up after hrs?

sentiment changes, man...never underestimate how fast they happen and how far they run...

anyone buying GOOG at 484?

SKF- you know, if i had followed charlie's plan, i could have bought 10 shares at 141, then backed up the truck at 134...real-time lesson...

Newbie here. So, wouldn't it be an obvious buy to buy some Aug puts on xlf? (wrt all the puts sold by HB&B)
I feel like I'm missing something.
Thanks.

Thanks 2nd
I took my chance with SKF
Buy 200 Shares of SKF
Details Filled at $135.0995
Sell 200 Shares of SKF
Details Filled at $137.1205
also did OEX
Buy to Open Put 5 Contracts of -OEBSP
Details Filled at $1.90
Sell to Close Put 5 Contracts of -OEBSP
Details Filled at $2.70

Oh well, got shaken out on the low volume head-fake of XLF above the day's highs. 11:11 AM on a 1-min chart. The BKX was breaking north into new daily highs, too so I exited.

GOOG PE is 34
it may at like MSFT
stock may stay where it is and PF come down to
around 25

2nd_ave: I am waiting for google to hit 440.

I will buy google long, but after the market takes it down. Bears must eat, let them feast some more on the choice stocks before loading up is my feeling.

Everyone here knows my feeling on Google, it's one of the best long term companies bar none to have. Its one of the few companies to truly understand it's market and business model. But we are in short term mode here and now. it will bounce about, So I will be patient as I play with my other more riskier options right now.

Hmm perhaps I should just go google now... nah must play :) to learn more first.

It will go down much lower eventually. The tide is going out after-all, more than enough time to wait for tide reversals.

Bill: congrats on the work work paying off! Now I wonder how much more careful we will have to be about trolls (especially as you tell it as it is with CIA playing financial politics...)

heh hey Kaimu you aren't really a clever plant for the evil fed forces?? :) *wink*

This market is so crazy I think it’s starting to make sense. I had a feeling GOOG would disappoint yesterday so I bought AMZN puts (a retailer) as a less expensive way to play the options!!

I also abandoned TSO this morning – should have got out yesterday, but was using it as a hedge incase the market jumped up today.

Almost all cash now except for small positions in –SQNM and MIVI.ob
Watching AFFX and CSIQ

Bill thanks for all your time and effort. You’re comments (including many others on this board) truly provide piece of mind in these volatile times.

2nd ave: I also invest like you in terms of long, and buying a bit too earlier because of that. I think this is an instance of that for your long term vision.

Jock - I know you follow Otto and was wondering what you thought of this post

http://tiny.cc/BXBMy

If all good why is ARU off .25 right now?

Thanks for everyone's help here.

Stv

Is it better to play in the fixed income arena more than equity during a sideways market?

Disregard that last post. 3/4 got cut off.

Alaskan Pete - good call on BA, thanks

Long Airtran AAI

2nd
Get a chance check out UAUA...what a difference a day makes.

UAUA upgraded to 'buy' by JPM, who thinks bankruptcy is farther away than indicated by the current price...sentiment shifts before you know it, and that's why they call it trading-> are LT investors going to jump in on a longer time frame for going bankrupt?

remember the investors who cashed out of mutual funds earlier in the week? what must they be thinking right now...the same media that blasted the black headlines are now going white...at +600 points are some of them placing buy orders...what a joke...

Since its a slow day, I thought some you might want to known San Francisco seeks to name a sewage treatment plant in honor or George W.
http://tinyurl.com/6krzte

2nd_ave, so did you exit VLO & TSO with a loss yesterday? I am asking because I want to learn when and how to take losses... I am still holding my short position in August VLO puts, and if those shares are put to me, my cost basis, after accounting for the premiums I received, would be around $34.2. I also purchased some VLO shares directly at $36, but then I bought/sold the same amount of shares a couple of times, and brought down my cost basis to $33.5, and I am still holding the original amount of shares with the new reduced cost basis. I still think the refineries should rise, as I think (hope) oil will keep going down. Alaska was opened for oil drilling, which, as I was saying before the July 4th weekend, was one of the goals that Bush had. Now that he has achieved his goal, they can start pushing the oil price down. I was afraid of buying airlines until there would be a clear sign of the trend reversal, and so I bought UAUA on Wednesday at $4.4, when it was up 40% from its low. But it still worked out fine, as UAUA is $5.63 and I am still holding. I think the current rally should last for several weeks, and UAUA should be higher at the end of the rally than it is now.

DavidV

David- yes, i took losses on VLO and TSO...in this case, the decision had little to do with the refiners-> i simply looked at the port a few minutes before the close, realized it was up 16% in 2 days (and also that the DJIA had moved 500 points in 2 days), and cut my entire long position(s) in half...i sold half the UYG, all of the FIDSX/FSAIX (mainly b/c they only trade EOD, and who knows what happens the next day), the entire position in CAF (thinking it was pricing in the rally, which would fizzle the next day), the entire position in refiners (thinking a $16 drop in oil would bounce the next day), kept a few of the stronger banks + FDX/UPS/BA/ESLR-> which, of course, i sold this morning...

iow, i just marked everything to market, and looked at the ending balance as the deciding factor...

David- btw, congrats on the Alaskan drilling call...

After observing the market sinking for the last 15 minutes, I think the profit taking will gain speed by the end of the day. So I sold my UAUA shares just now at $5.63. I'll place a buy stop limit order $0.1 above today's closing price for Monday, to pick them up again if they start moving up on Monday.

DavidV

Another 10% day on heavy volume for Novagold. I sure wish I knew what is going on with it, but I won't argue about it either.

so no one's buying GOOG for a bounce...if i stick to the plan, i should buy one share and wait for the next move-> limit order for 1 share at 465, good for the day...thanks, charlie ;)

The market held up rather well today considering the negative earnings report and gloomy outlook – so is it being held up because of options expiration or are we still in possible rally mode – do we go positive again on Monday?

2nd
"and looked at the ending balance as the deciding factor... "
this the only thing I look at and so far it is working

My feeling is we will closed up
2nd
your oex put will work on Monday

OK, so "marking portfolio to market" seems to be an important factor in deciding when to take a loss. My practice of sticking to losing positions and trying to reduce my cost basis by buying/selling more shares of the same stock at appropriate moments is better than just holding losing positions long term. But, an even more advanced skill is to rise above the fear of losing on a trade and re-allocate my money to other positions that seem to provide a better upside potential. I know this has been suggested many times on this blog before, but apparently I cannot just pick up this skill by listening to other people -- I need to suffer myself for a while before I actually appreciate it. Money is money, and it doesn't matter on which stock I make it. And the value of my portfolio marked to market should be the real driving force, rather than proving myself to be right on each position I take. Having said that, I often don't have any good trading ideas, and in that case it might be reasonable to keep my oversold underwater positions. But when I do see an opportunity, like it was on Wednesday morning, I should free my capital from losing positions and jump on the opportunity (I jumped in on Wednesday, but apparently not enough). I think Vadym wrote about this in his trader lessons -- investing more money in good opportunities and less or none at all when the trade is not clear.

DavidV

UBS - This witch hunt makes no sense, the US does not have jurisdiction over foreign banks.

Are US citizens holding offshore accounts in hopes of avoiding taxes on capital gains realized on investments originating in the US? Is UBS purposefully enabling this type of investment?

If UBS IS somehow at fault, surely a reciprocal situation exists within the United States. How can any bank, anywhere, be held responsible for failure of a citizen to pay their taxes?

Furthermore, the spirit of the law should only require US citizens to pay their fair share on taxable income based upon origin of the realized gains. Non-citizens should be required to pay those taxes (estimated) into a settlement (or escrow) account, at time of settlement.

For instance, if a US citizen owning investment assets in a foreign country realizes a gain on those assets, he should only have to pay taxes on that gain to the authority in who's country the gains were realized. Otherwise, the citizen would be exposed to double taxation. ie: It is the realized gain which should be taxed, by the authorities of the country of origin, no matter the origin of citizenship.

The bank in which the assets are held should not be held liable in any way, for the failure of the citizen to pay their fair share of taxes on realized gains. No matter where those gains were realized.

If UBS is responsible in any way, for US citizens paying their federal taxes, please answer the following question:

What's the difference between an orange?

Presumably, the answer would be: Telephone poles, cats don't fly!!!!

long nxg

david- the other question i ask myself is whether i would be taking a position in this stock at this time were i not already holding it...

Sold UYG

As a member in good standing of DENSA, I mistimed my entry and exit but still managed over 21% profit on a 5 day hold.

The prospect of being long financials ahead of BAC earnings on Monday and WB on Tuesday was too much to bear.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

they are trying to pin OEX at 580 and S&P at 1260

vinod- what happened to all the headlines about iran, missiles, israel, and lines at indymac? you have to respect the short attention spans of investors, as well as that of the media...LOL

BH- congrats, i know the ST move was a first for you...21%- i'll take that anytime...

Prediction: UYG dives in after hours.

2nd
all weremore
today they had rumore
Freeport-McMoRan - RIO-will buy Freeport
just to play their position in option?

all were rumore correction

Going on Vinod & 2nd's lead:

Bought 10 OEBTP $14.30

Thanks, 2nd.

After months of watching you and others in here operate, I'm trying to add ST trades to my arsenal.

Many thanks to all who share their investment moves and opinions in CaraistaLand.

Regards

today's market was option related
we will see true color on Monday?

Boss
I will not buy 10
it is very risky and most I will bet is 5k
unless I have solid advise from expert
oex option is not for everyone. one can lose fast

b0ss- nice move, man...here's to the twenties sometime in the next 4 weeks...

Just curious....why is the IRS worried about investment income in foreign countries for individuals while corporations can establish a phoney POB in the Caymans and all is well.

I also noticed that entire manufacturing factories were moved to various cheap labor countries a few years back and there wasn't any mention of taxing those resources like we see from Charlie Rangel's recent brainstorm for those of us smart enough to think of getting out of Dodge.

Boss

most of my oex trade was advise by derivative trader here and i learn from them

"Prediction: UYG dives in after hours."

Posted by: Chickenpookie at July 18, 2008 3:58 PM

right on, man...

Absolutely bizarre move in CVP today. Up nearly 45% on no news.

I missed out on getting in SKF and SRS by just a few pennies in the last 20 minutes of trading.

Vinod - I was wanting to short something for next week. I have never bought OEX before, but I am sure it follows the market like everything else. If you find out that everyone is getting out, tell me so I won't be doubling down if we continue with the summer rally!

Have a good weekend...

Bull Hunter, I'd be willing to bet there's news, it's just that we (outsiders) don't know it yet. ;-)

To me it does not appear that this rally finished today. By my observation it has enough momemtum to continue for 1-3 more days.

I will wait for turn around Tuesday before opening new short positions.

I bought and sold 100 SKF today- bought at 135.2 sold at 138.3. It doesn't feel like a worthwhile trade. It feels like I just picked up a quarter in the roadway and did not get hit by traffic.

lessmore - I agree, looks like there's more left in this rally, that's why I'm holding my longs.

SKF - Will be dropping more, of course. Might get a chance to pick some up at considerably lower prices.
UYG - Still not too late to buy for a short play. (I'll be looking at this Monday).

Wow did anyone else see the massive decline on Overstock (OSTK) today? Down 41% today on a bad earnings/outlook. Geesh...

My Dear Friends,

What a good week it turned out to be. This cowboy found that he wa able to giddiyup and ride some, there was a modicum of measured bullishness. This may be a recognition of the effects of inflation, or just an overdue rally. I won't be around, because I'm spending the next week in Chatham, Ma. I'll be going to the beach every day, eating fabulous seafood, drinking and just enjoying summer. It was nice finishing up the day with a REAL nice NXG daytrade. This is my pick for a good rally next week if gold doesn't collapse.

Sianara, Cowboys! I tip my sombrero to you!!
Senore tequila says adios!

CVP Mystery Explained:

"Centerplate, the concessionaire serving fans at this week's MLB All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium, could be sold to a competitor by the end of July, sources representing Aramark and Comcast-Spectacor's Ovations Food Services said. Those firms, as well as Delaware North Sportservice, are evaluating Centerplate's deals at 22 big league facilities. UBS Investment Bank, hired by Centerplate in May to explore strategic options that include selling the company, recently circulated a book listing the publicly-traded firm's assets and liabilities. Delaware North, rumored to be the front-runner, issued a statement that it is "actively looking for potential acquisition candidates that would enable us to maintain and grow our global reputation and market share in our respective industries." Aramark and Ovations officials declined to speak publicly. Centerplate Dir of Communications Gael Doar said, "I'm not going to comment on a rumor." Centerplate's stock, an income deposit security that combines common stock and a bond, has fallen to about $2 a share today on the American Stock Exchange, compared with $17 in mid-July '07. The company stopped paying monthly dividends in June. Centerplate's contract at Yankee Stadium expires after the '08 season; that deal represents about 18% of the company's cash flow. The Yankees have formed their own food and retail firm, Legends Hospitality Management, for their new ballpark opening next spring. A sale of Centerplate would be subject to SEC approval."

http://tinyurl.com/5j3pp5

This one might bear watching as a day/ST trade. Rumors are that the buyout could be in excess of $10 per share.

can someone please expand on the story which was on msn money regarding

"the tier one capital ratio"

I did some research online and found that most banks are only required to have a capital ratio of 6% to be deemed well capitalized and marginally capitalized at 4%.

these numbers look really small to me..

I went a little further and looked at indymac which had a Tier 1 capital ratio of 8% in march and 11 % of tier 1 and tier 2.

They went bust in 11 days

I went and did a little more research and looked at Citi's situation

Dec, 07 vs Mar 08

Equity capital to assets 7.93% 7.45%
Core capital (leverage) ratio 6.65% 6.09%
Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio 8.98% 8.59%
Total risk-based capital ratio 13.33% 12.88%

So does this really mean that a bank only needs 8cents on the dollar to be effectively funded??

Is this the measure by which fdic measure bank performance.. there were some banks which had a capitalization of like 1% which means they were leveraged to the point of having 1% capital ??

I suppose any bank can have a bank run scenario and the press this last week were trying desparately to keep the cat in the bag by reaffirming the U.S. people that their money is safe but as everyone has already stated the FDIC backup plan only has 53 billion in capital itself.. of which could be distroyed if a run occured at Citi or BofA.

I'd like to know some of your thought as to where one would put your money if your on the side lines....

forgot the link

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/CouldYourBankBeTheNextToFail.aspx?page=1

bhui -

No bank can survive a bank run, period. The capital is not there. That is why I have been saying that CONfidence is the key to the entire financial system, and it is clearly slipping away. How many American's understand fractional reserve lending? 1 out of 1000?

What I think happened with IndyMac is that when Schumer's letter to regulators was publicized it caused a bank run that IndyMac itself claims was 1% of deposits. That run probably kept on going for the next week until regulators took it over.

BillySundance - "Wow did anyone else see the massive decline on Overstock (OSTK) today? Down 41% today on a bad earnings/outlook. Geesh..."

I bet it was fueled in part by a last hurrah party from the naked short sellers of overstock that Patrick Byrne has so vehemently tried to expose.

Something I think is quite interesting too is that Sam Antar, the notorious CFO from the Crazy Eddies fiasco in the 80's has been on a rampage against Overstock for what he believes were/are intentional and fraudulent accounting practices and he's not shy about telling everyone either. It appears that he's done a lot of research, but considering Sam's background, it makes one wonder what his real motivation here is.

http://tinyurl.com/6n9ovl

Then again, it's hard to know who to believe and this market seems spooked by anything.

Does anybody else find it peculiar that shark_attack is going to the same beaches this summer where police chief Martin Brody had to battle a giant Great White that completely ruined the town's tourist season back in '75? Even weirder is that just a few minutes ago I turned on the TV and Jaws was on....spooky.

You don't suppose he's actually a real sha...ah nevermind...probably just my own paranoia kicking in.

Have fun in MA shark, say Hi to Chief Brody if you get into town and don't use that bpgus candygram scam on the tourists either while you're there.

Well, it was actually filmed on the Vineyard, and Shark better be careful, I think the shark tournament is this weekend.

Anyone here have thoughts or feelings about short-term short sale on a miner like Agnico-Eagle? 50 day MA appears to be cresting, it has been tested twice, and the MACD cross over downwards is following through so far.

I assess the risk of it continuing to rise as less than the chance of it finding demand at $64 or even $60 or so. But Lord knows I've been wrong before.

Am interested in any perspectives regarding good shorts once this little uppity-up rally wanes . . .

Good night all--

Interesting NYTimes article on state of economy, comparison to other economies in times of crisis, etc.

http://tinyurl.com/6g6wly

http://tinyurl.com/6s9j6e

Saturday Morning Coffee: A Plethora of Choices, for Some

Maybe only the last paragraph is really important.

Everyone should read Peter Schiff's 7/18/08 Economic Commentary at www.europac.net.

It is not pretty.

“Regardless of the myths about living close to the land, cities are where human beings have the lowest ecological footprint. It takes less energy, wood, material, and food to provide a good life for a person in a city than in the country. Rather than perceive the city as an ecological sink sucking up the resources of the countryside, which it can do, the city can also be a kind of ecological ark, the place where humanity gathers while we peak in population and develop ecological intelligence for a new civilization. Re:vision understands that we must build urban arks that are equipped to navigate the uncertainties and demands of the coming decades; cities will need to be redesigned, re-imagined, and reconsidered. The sustainable city is a place that interacts with its region and resources and creates the conditions that are conducive to a humane and honorable existence.”

As quoted from Paul Hawken's slot on this page -
http://www.urbanrevision.com/revisionaries.php

http://www.urbanrevision.com/revisionaries.php
Paul Hawken

“Regardless of the myths about living close to the land, cities are where human beings have the lowest ecological footprint. It takes less energy, wood, material, and food to provide a good life for a person in a city than in the country. Rather than perceive the city as an ecological sink sucking up the resources of the countryside, which it can do, the city can also be a kind of ecological ark, the place where humanity gathers while we peak in population and develop ecological intelligence for a new civilization. Re:vision understands that we must build urban arks that are equipped to navigate the uncertainties and demands of the coming decades; cities will need to be redesigned, re-imagined, and reconsidered. The sustainable city is a place that interacts with its region and resources and creates the conditions that are conducive to a humane and honorable existence.”

bhui - Your question is extremely broad. You cannot ever be "on the sidelines" with your assets. No one knows which way the various markets, banking sectors, and world currencies will trend for sure. There are infinite ways and places to store wealth, just as there are infinite ways of gaining or destruction of same.

If you are storing in USD and in a bank, then it might be wise to spread it out amongst various institutions, with total deposits in each institution not exceeding the insured limits.

There are infinite other options as well, such as bonds, foreign currencies, realestate, and precious metals. Each of these are subject to market performance.

It might help you by thinking in terms of what your goals are. If your intent to "be on the sidelines" means preservation of wealth, diversification might be the wise choice. Diversification has it's drawbacks, as does concentration. Spreading your wealth too broad adds complexity to managing your portfolio, while concentration exposes more of your assets to positive and negative swings.

sustain ability
I live in the country and couldn't disagree more. Just not having access to sushi reduces my footprint. And I don't see how rebuilding, say New York, would reduce any footprint. Throughout history most people lived off the land in small villages. Very large cities were rare due to impact on the land. Cities are fun, not sustainable.

"sidelined" "assets"-

agree with CP...assets also include intangibles-> knowledge, education, peace of mind, tranquility...you would never think of "sidelining" these, right? continuing education (formal or informal), learning new skills, taking care of yourself, mental preparation-> maybe plowing sidelined cash to furthering the pursuit of intangible assets would give you the best return on investment (certainly true for anyone out of a job right now)...

Great video link on FED bail-outs...

http://tinyurl.com/5a85j3

Tigermaple:

In the (previous) era of cheap oil, it was a Cold War strategy to "grow" the Car Culture and its twin sister/brother Suburbia.

In olden times, cities (i.e. cathedrals, hospitals, universities, markets, specialist labour and services - anything that became not just cheaper but merely viable) were storehouses of wealth in all its manifestations.

"The overwhelming majority of banks in this country are safe and sound." according to Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which insures bank deposits. "The chance that your own bank will be taken over by the FDIC is extremely remote."

That may be, however, it was not long before the banking sector dove to unprecidented lows and Indy failed, we were told that the worst was over and the mortgage crisis bottom was in. How about the upcoming ARM resets? What's being done about that?

I hope these folks realize they're eventually going to have to back up the wordsmithing with meaningful action and real data. Still in a reactionary mode? It's not too late for the think-tank to adopt a proactive strategic approach.

Look into the future - ask yourselves "What could go wrong", make a list, develop some theories, take appropriate action, document and publish the results for review. Show us the Bazooka!!! This would be the prudent approach.

Tigermaple - Excellent point, look at what happend to the Aztecs. Their great impirical cities crashed into oblivian because of massive environmental destruction. These cities actually choked themselves and died from the inside-out.

The big difference from then and now however, is that transportation technologies have overcome some of this.

A quote from a fair and wise-guy:

"The solution to pollution is dilution"

Chickenpookie,

Proactive stance requires admitting potential problems exist. Publishing those potential problems makes the masses aware. If a fraction of the masses then acts to protect themselves, worst case scenarios can become self-fullfilling prophecies.

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree with you and wish they would do it, just to fix the system so we could all move on in a better world. But I suspect the above is the reason it won't happen.

That's basically what happened with Indy. That one guy (congressman? Fed banker? can't remember) opined that Indymac was in trouble. Couple of weeks later, poof!

"The overwhelming majority of banks in this country are safe and sound." according to Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

CP- in my experience, the 'overwhelming majority' of corporate/political managers in this country are good at carefully-crafted public statements. NO ONE interested in keeping their job or furthering their career (with the possible exception of David Walker, who in any case probably first secured his financial future and also a position as CEO of a think tank) is going to be candid about how BAD things are. You really have to be a fly on the wall to know.

Krugman's latest NYT column talks of Obama's election as a virtual certainty. That's ,La-la land ...

Republican operatives know they have a lame old candidate, but there's LOTS of time for:

- "fear and smear";
- OK'ing an Israeli strike against Iran;
- having Obama taken out, if all else fails?

I hope I'm wrong, but Texans (Rove, Baker)play rough!

Maybe Republicans SHOULD clean up the mess! Obama would be a more mature, seasoned candidate in 2012.

Let the Campaigning begin.

http://tinyurl.com/5wewhe

Bill, smart move to remove GFI. Sinclair gave heads up many months ago about the infrastructure problems, and the South African gold miners have been off my watch list ever since. By the way, Sinclair is super bullish on gold right now, so price action will confirm for me where to put my money.

[Bill Cara note: Yes, I was too slow on this, but I have been very busy. I also noted previously in the blog where South Africa had power problems. Anyway, the C100 is just a monitor list and I have been out of GFI for a long time. As for people being bullish on gold, they obviously don't think oil prices will continue south or the $USD north. I think there will be a shake-out in gold before the next major leg up. I'll be there at that point.]

If you haven't seen The Daily Show's sendup of Bush/Bernanke speaking at the same time:

http://tinyurl.com/5fhqor

The 8 minute clip also features Freddie, Fannie and IndyMac.

IMHO, very worthwhile watching.

Prowdpapa, 2nd - I can understand your point that if the real truth were known, all confidence and support might be lost in an instant. However, at the risk of splitting hairs, I'd like to broaden the scope of thought a bit by considering additional aspects of the origin of confidence.

My point is that respect, credibility, and confidence are not the same things. My belief is that from respect comes credibility. Credibility creats confidence. Confidence is the bottom line.

Respect is something earned, not granted.

Respect:
Respect is one of the most (if not the most) important attributes for society to maintain, yet it is hard to define. On its broadest level respect is the acknowledgment that someone has value. They may be rich, work very hard, or may simply treat everyone in a way that gives them value. The importance on this value is that it changes peoples reactions towards you, usually in a positive way. A person is more likely to treat you with respect if you do what is asked of you instead of arguing with them. It is the value you earned while doing what you were told that has lead the person to respect you and therefore treat you nicely.

Credibility:
Credibility is the objective and subjective components of the believability of a source or message. Traditionally, credibility is composed of two primary dimensions: trustworthiness and expertise, which have both objective and subjective components. That is, trustworthiness is a receiver judgment based on subjective factors. Expertise can be similarly subjectively perceived but includes relatively objective characteristics of the source or message as well (e.g., source credentials or information quality). Some secondary dimensions include source dynamism (charisma) and physical attractiveness, for example.

Confidence:
Confidence is generally described as a state of being certain, either that a hypothesis or prediction is correct, or that a chosen course of action is the best or most effective given the circumstances. Confidence can be described as a subjective, emotional state of mind, but is also represented statistically as a confidence level within which one may be certain that a hypothesis will either be rejected or deemed plausible.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. A simple reminder that lying can, and often does, backfire.

"[Bill Cara note: Yes, I was too slow on this, but I have been very busy. I also noted previously in the blog where South Africa had power problems. Anyway, the C100 is just a monitor list and I have been out of GFI for a long time. As for people being bullish on gold, they obviously don't think oil prices will continue south or the $USD north. I think there will be a shake-out in gold before the next major leg up. I'll be there at that point.] "

Bill comments about OIL and $USD is what trader here are talking about and they agree about it
Friday at lunch time I heart about it

http://tinyurl.com/5k4a56

vinod - This is the new breeze coming for energy and the USD. I began to feel this way yesterday.

An article reflecting on the reasoning for the Iraq war that I like to review from time to time.

http://www.harrybrowne.org/articles/FoolMeOnce.htm

Gazprom - deals with Libya, Iran

3rd story down in the EXCELLENT blog on mid-east wars/politics http://juancole.com/

summarizes Russian press commentary on how these deals enhance Gazprom's power vrs. Europe, and move closer the goal of creating a "GAS-OPEC" for LNG.

Given a Shovel, Digging Deeper Into Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/business/20debt.html?ref=business#

Jock, unfortunately I think we've just seen what the republicans call "cleaning up" for the past 7 and 1/2 years. They've certainly polished all the brass off my balls.

think we have inflation problems? check out zimbabwe's 2.2 million % inflation:

http://tinyurl.com/6zu53k

killer whale - well put, the republicans certainly do have brass ones !

Thirsty. Then Sunday Morning Coffee is for you.

http://tinyurl.com/5l8du5

What's really eating Gilbert Grape (Ben Bernanke), the credit market responds, and some links worth clicking

Here is something to be noted. Several iShare etf/etn's are to be split on July 21. For example, the one for Silver will split ten for one.

If you own any iShare etf's, you might want to check the list and avoid an early morning heart attack.

http://tinyurl.com/6ocuuc

Re: Politics

One thing that is remarkable about democracy is that it represents a form of totalitarianism, we refer to it as the "tyranny of democracy." What is being attempted now, since the debut of a rather one-sided asymetrical conflict and foreign interventionism, is the "tyranny of the tyranny of democracy."

:0

Looks like the USD might be a good hedge on the Z-Dollar. Or is it?

Its important to note that last weeks rally was led by financials and that the rally coincides with the SEC's new rule affecting the shorts in Fannie, Freddie and 17 Wall Street firms that are primary dealers with access to the Federal Reserve's discount window, such as Citigroup Inc. Since Wall street is lobbying the SEC to extend the rule to the stock of all banks the rally in financials could continue 2-3 more days.

I totally missed the relaunch of this way to play oil up or down.

Perhaps you did too?

OUY & DOY

http://tinyurl.com/66vtgz

OUY/DOY Announcement link from Aurator's post July 2nd:

http://tinyurl.com/62ghaf

And please don't forget about DZZ/DGP

Kathleen Pender of the SF Chronicle with her usual well-written and well-balanced view of where things stand right now with regard to FRE/FNM/financials:

http://tinyurl.com/5bbdek

Yeah, except Pender forgot to mention, or didn't know Naked short-selling is illegal anyway.

Hello Chickie,
Small correction in your post, see article:

likely you meant:

UOY ---------- not OUY
DOY

http://tinyurl.com/62ghaf

i shares silver trust SLV splitting 10/1 @179.68 tomorrow I think. Does this seem to be a good buy?

Details on bean506 post about SLV split.

http://tinyurl.com/6qhn6s

Naked short-selling is illegal only if you are trying to manipulate the price of the stock down. If you are doing it just to speculate that the price will go down, it is perfectly legal. The market makers do this every day. Herny Paulson was interviewed by Erin Burnett last week about this. They might allow the market makers to continue to naked short sell next week on the bank stocks to improve order flow. As usual, Jim Cramer said that Hank didn't know what he was saying and that it was Illegal...

Opps! It was SEC Chairman Chris Cox not Herny Paulson. "Naked short selling is not illegal"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=795065904

re the safety of money market funds...despite the headline: "Most money-market funds safe from financial meltdown," read further and make up your own mind...

what bothers me, of course, is the word "Most" in the headline, and the fact that the article points to management "embarrassment" as your safety net should NAV fall below a dollar:

http://tinyurl.com/6sakph

" Consumers are not being completely irrational with their fears because of the way money-market mutual funds work. Unlike ordinary mutual funds, money-market funds maintain a constant price of $1. Each day, a fund's holdings are "marked to market," meaning the current market value of its holdings is checked.
If a fund has a big holding in an issue that goes kaflooey, the share price might "break the buck" and fall below $1. This dire money-losing scenario has never happened to a big retail fund, but that's no guarantee. And, unlike money-market bank deposits, there's also no federal deposit insurance."

"And if circumstances put a money fund into break-the-buck territory, industry watchers say management will bail it out. No fund firm that wants to stay in business would suffer the embarrassment -- or resulting rush for the exits in its other funds -- from having a money fund fail. There are countless cases over the last 15 years of firms buying back troubled paper from their money funds to ensure that retail shareholders avoid a loss."

bbcmoney - You're correct, UOY/DOY. Thanks for pointing out the typo.

C - CITI reports 2.5B losses for quarter, losses should peak in another 2-4 quarters....

Financial sector writes down 400B to date, another 800-900B remaining...

FRE - CEO Richard Syron received 20M compensation in 07, FRE stock lost 50% of value in the period.

Earnings reports for Monday:
MRK, SGP, BAC

ESLR - This was published after hours Thursday:

LOS ANGELES, July 17 (Reuters) - Evergreen Solar Inc (ESLR.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Thursday reported a wider quarterly loss due to costs for the opening of a new production facility and forecast third-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street estimates, sending shares down more than 11 percent.

The solar power company also warned that gross margins would be hurt for the rest of the year due to costs for bringing its new plant online, such as for training employees.

Right now, it's 5lbs in a 10lb sack....

That should be: it's 10lbs in a 5lb sack....

Banks reporting earnings next week

Company *Q2 08 EPS estimate / Q2 07 EPS Actual

Bank of America 54 cents / 23 cents
Wachovia Corp (43 cents) / (21 cents)
Regions Financial 42 cents / 48 cents
SunTrust $1.43 / 81 cents
Fifth Third ( 9 cents) / 55 cents
KeyCorp ($2.40) / 54
Washington Mutual (-$1.30) / ($1.40)
Sovereign 16 cents / 20 cents
National City (26 cents) / (27 cents)
Synovus 15 cents / 24 cents

* Fully reported basis

ALOHA !!

I'm in Kona, Hawaii for R&R ... sort of!!! With a sixteen year old in tow R&R rarely happens! HA!!

Here is a long term chart of oil prices from 1920 to 2005. Please note what happened to oil prices soon after Nixon removed the World from the gold standard in 1971. Also look at how little oil prices changed from 1920 to 1971, compared to post 1971 virtually none, even right through the Great Depression and WW1 and WW2! Those were the years when global currencies had gold backing them, now we have nothing backing global currency.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/627obo

Now look at this chart showing the relation between M3(money supply) and oil prices from 1998 to 2008. Oil prices rise and eventually keep pace with M3.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/5ccluq

While the US government drives up money supply and oil prices who profits most from oil? Is it speculators and oil CEOs or is those who want to blame speculators and oil CEOs? Who has been driving up the price of oil since 1971 ... speculators and oil CEOs? It looks to me it has been the US government all along ... and now we want the US government to fix the mess they created by a multi-decade long socialist policy of spend and print? We need to get US government out of our lives not in it!
Link: http://tinyurl.com/5v6vgh

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY !!

ALOHA !!

I have not committed one cent to a retirement fund since 2000. Instead I paid off debts like(home and business)and bought gold and silver and art. Paying off debt is one of the best retirement plans you can have!

Many friends and family thought that was dumb, but look what happened to those who held onto debt since 2000 instead of paying it off. With inflationary costs driving up the cost of living(like gas and food)these people now have less net income to pay off debts they decided to hold onto. In some cases they now cannot maintain their lifestyles and many are defaulting on mortgages. Paying off debt was a better investment than buying the DOW or NASDAQ if you factor in the lost purchasing power of the US Peso! Sometimes known as the devaluation of the US Dollar. You know who devalued the dollar, since its the same ones touting a Strong Dollar Policy now!

Mogambo Guru reports on the latest craze for debtors ... "401k debit cards"!

READ ON:
There is still one, last, pitiful source of money that could be used to support more spending. He writes, "Among the most awful pitches is something that's being touted as an employee benefit: the 401(k) debit card. This allows you to treat your retirement fund as a cash account to withdraw money."

But before I could put any plan into effect, he says it is not about me at all! Instead, the caution is because "Debited withdrawals are treated as loans, subject to interest and fees and must be paid back within five years", and the money (of course) has to be with "after-tax dollars in those five years."

Then he adds (as if he is reading my mind), "What happens if you don't pay back these funds?" Well, I am sorry to report that the news gets pretty ugly at that point, and all my planning seems for naught, as he says, "Unlike a checking account-linked debit card, you will owe income taxes plus a 10 percent penalty if you are younger than 59 1/2."

Being naturally argumentative, here is my thinking: You gotta pay the taxes anyway, whether you get the money now or later, and so by NOT taking the money out of the 401(k) right now, you are betting that the retirement plan will go up in price, AND go up enough to offset the loss in the buying power of the dollar!

And to that I bellow a Loud Mogambo Honker (LMH) of a laugh "Hahahaha!"

Hell, the dollar has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 lousy years! And you are probably sitting on a year-over-year 20% loss in your 401(k) to boot! Hahaha!

The ten percent penalty, however, is quite a haircut, I will admit. But if you are now sitting on 20% year-to-date losses in your 401(k), compounded by a massive loss in the buying power of the dollar, you would have been better off - far better off! - taking the money out of the 401(k) at the beginning of the year, paying the 10% penalty, paying the tax and putting the money into gold like you know you should have, but didn't! Hahaha! (more)

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/07/wamu-refusing-i.html