Do you recall what happened 12 weeks ago (WIR#14 April 6)? I wrote:

This was a week spurred by a single day record gain, April 1, the biggest move since April 1, 2038, signaling the end of the Great Depression. How ironic that some people are saying this April Fool’s Day joke is signaling just the opposite. On that I am not so certain, but I am wary nonetheless.…But, really, the week was all about Tuesday, probably a forerunner to the testimony in the Congressional meetings over the next couple days in which it would become clear that Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had not only received a govt guarantee of some $29 billion of Bear Stearns illiquid and possibly dubious assets, but that the two had received a like amount in short-term (hopefully) borrowings from the Fed.

As I see it, HB&B made their move immediately before this testimony became apparent. In fact, all testimony to Congressional committees is supposed to be submitted days in advance and the chairs complained that these docs had been submitted (held?) to the last minute. Clearly, the TV shots showed these Congressmen reading the docs intently and pointing with one another to particular items of interest. But isn’t that another example of how Wall Street is purposeful in hiding transparency. If that wasn’t enough, the complicated responses they gave to the simplest questions only showed me that obfuscation was the name of their game.

So, here we are up on average +4.2% W/W, with the Financials (XLF) up +7.0%, but I don’t think the public feels elated.

XLF closed that week (April 6) at 26.36. Today it is just 20.60, which is a drop of -22% in 12 weeks. Considering the losses reported and all, that’s appropriate. But going back to that week in April, in reviewing the winners, there lays the evidence of manipulation and the nonsense that has gone on in this Financial sector. The strongest stocks that week were UBS +21.1%, LEH +16.3%, MER +15.8% and, yes, C +15.6%. These were the banks that have had the biggest write-downs and needed the biggest capital infusions, but when the Fed was in helping them, and lying to us and to Congress, we were told that those share price increases were believable, that the write-downs would be partially recovered in the future, and that no further capital was required, etc.

For more of what I call proof of concept, which is why I write this blog, let’s see what I wrote about HB&B in that WIR#14:

This week, the Financials (XLF +6.94% W/W following the previous Friday’s gain of +6.02%) were far and away the leaders of the rally.

And why not? Henry Paulson, the People’s keeper of the Treasury, has ensured his Friends & Family on Wall Street are well treated. You know who’s paying for all this, right?

The volatility in this sector is even greater than Mom & Pop’s retailers. But I’ll tell you, XLF is not Mom & Pop’s bankers.

This week, can you say, without smiling, that UBS can write down $19 billion in dubious assets they own and tell the public they have to quickly raise $12 billion in new equity (because the ECB isn’t as friendly as the Fed), and the stock still rockets +21.2% W/W. Image that; these are the free markets that price the value of assets. (LOL)

What happened here is that the Fed has now become the world’s banker, just like I suppose the US military has become… (you know). Incredible as it might seem, there will be no major international bank go under because that would be a counter-party risk management issue that couldn’t be managed. It would bring down the whole system because JP Morgan, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and the rest of Wall Street lends and borrows every day from UBS. Ergo: the Fed to the rescue of a Swiss bank that a long time ago stopped being Swiss, in the ‘prudent’ sense of the word.

Did you take note of the (other) biggest gains W/W on Wall Street. Yes, you might have guessed, they were the biggest problems: Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, which were up +16.3%, +15.8%, and +15.6% W/W respectively (but not respectfully I might add).

Did you check out the comments I made in the Saturday Report? The world is illiquid and in fear of shutting down, but the banks are rocking and rolling. Mr. Moral Hazard has really pulled one over on America… Oh, I forgot: the new reality (illiquidity) vs 1-800-HOPE… Donald Trump casting is looking for actors for his new Apprentice Show. We saw several auditions in Congress this week. The world was watching… Getting practice for the Summer Olympics, I was rating the nonsense… Dimon 9.9, Geithner 9.6, Bernanke 9.2, Cox 10.0,… It doesn’t get better than the awesome performance of the simplest questions… Mr. Cox, do you know what city this is? How many fingers am I holding up?...

Well, maybe I was a little tough on Mr. Cox that week, but the rest of the nonsense I had figured out at the time. That was the week the bond market started selling off. TLT was about 96 and two months later was under 89. And why not? We discovered that week that the Treasury Secretary went off to the other side of the world so he wouldn’t have to perjure himself in what was to be the most important testimony of any Treasury Secretary since oh maybe the Great Depression.

Did Paulson want to admit that he conned the Fed into saving every failing major Broker-Dealer in the world after the Bear Stearns collapse? Anyway, I saw what was going on, and it stinks.

Imagine that Henry Paulson was over in China chastising the Chinese government for not letting his so-called free market forces determine their monetary policy decisions. The gall of this man seems to have no bounds.

In fact, I’ll say this about him; since he took control of the US Treasury, the capital markets of the world have never come under such intense manipulation by the PPT, which goes to figure since, in private business, he was the chairman of the PPT, as I showed in documents I published here.

The question now, everybody should be asking, is to what extent are the current policies of the US Treasury and Fed and their anticipated impact on capital markets contrived to bring about enough economic slowing, regardless of damage to Mom & Pop, to arrest the inflation that was started by (i) the US government’s forays into the Middle East and (ii) the greediness of HB&B in the international housing industry.

I even believe that the housing industry boom (and its inflation) was contrived in order to generate wealth and taxes needed to pay for the so-called war on terrorism (or move to control the oil market, however you see it). How many times did the President go on TV to urge home ownership, and how many General Motors Ditech Mortgage commercials could be crammed into a single hour at Financial Entertainment TV before calling FETV a flat-out infomercial for vested interests?

We all know the problems; the Bear market, the deficits, the loss of consumer and business confidence, the crashing US Dollar, failing banks and airlines, inflation, credit squeezes, etc. The point I am making is that today’s results are the direct result of crucially important market-related decisions that were made, with intent, seven years ago, and today’s losers, anticipated by the vested interests who made those decisions in September 2001, were exploited to the fullest during the long Bull market run.

Now I am asking, why shouldn’t we believe that current events (ie, the Bear market, deficits, loss of consumer and business confidence, weak US Dollar, failing corporations, credit squeezes, etc) are not being similarly managed, with just two new names, Paulson and Bernanke, serving as Talking Heads for the same vested interests? To the winners go the spoils. That would be things like (i) the right to drill offshore in US environmentally protected regions, (ii) control of the international financial services industry by the private US Federal Reserve System, (iii) a weakened SEC, (iv) corporate takeovers of once viable competitors, and (v) whatever else can be had from the political and financial system these people control.

How long can this go before the public just says enough is enough?

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Weekly International Economic Report .

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar. In addition to the US Consumer Confidence index and the Fed monetary policy decision being reported on Wednesday, there are some other key reports.

US Durable Goods data for May. Econoday reported: “May's overall number matched market forecasts for no change. However, excluding the transportation component, new orders fell back -0.9%, following a +1.9% surge in April.”

US New Home Sales for May. Econoday reported: “The latest bad news comes from the new homes sales report which shows a 2.5% month-on-month decline in May to an annual adjusted unit sales rate of only 512,000. Sales levels were this low back in the early 90s and during the recessions of the 80s and 70s (note that the latest comparison is against smaller populations). The year-on-year decline remains in the 40% column at 40.3%.

US Existing Home Sales for May. Econoday reported: “Sales of existing homes rose 2.0% in the month to a 4.990 million annual rate, the best rate since February and the second best rate since November. The year-on-year contraction eased more than 1 percentage point to 15.9%, much better than the 40% contraction for new home sales (data released Wednesday). Supply remains badly swollen but a little less so in May at 10.8 months vs. 11.2 months in April. Price readings were positive especially given the size of supply. Both the median and average prices showed solid low single digit month-to-month gains with year-on-year contraction easing more than 1 percentage point to 6.3% for the median ($208,600) and 6.5% for the average ($253,100).” I don’t think the data was nearly as positive as the media made it out to be. Moreover, some improvement had been expected.

US Personal Income and Spending for May. Econoday reported: “Personal income got another huge spike from income tax rebate checks and a sizeable portion of those checks appears to be going into spending - even if for higher priced gasoline. Headline inflation has heated up more but core inflation is staying cool. Personal income in May jumped 1.9%, following a 0.3% rise in April. The boost in May topped the consensus forecast for a 0.4% gain. While the huge gain from income tax checks is important, a rebound in wages and salaries actually should be more comforting. The wages and salaries component rebounded 0.3%, following a 0.1% dip the month before. On the spending side, personal consumption soared 0.8% in May after rising 0.4% in April. The market had forecast an increase of 0.7% for personal spending. But spending was led by a 1.2% boost in nondurables which includes gasoline. Durables slipped 0.2% while services posted a 0.7% gain.”

U of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June. Last week I stated, “The question is how low will the index fall before bottoming.” After the report, Econoday reported: “There may not be a recession but it feels like one -- and a very deep one -- to the consumer. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slipped further in the final June report, to 56.4… This is the third lowest reading … all the way back to 1952 (lowest readings are 52.7 April 1980 and 51.7 May 1980).”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar. In addition to the US Consumer Confidence index and the Fed monetary policy decision being reported on Wednesday, there are some other key reports.

US Manufacturing data for June. Conditions stabilized in May, but employment levels were down and prices paid for materials had soared. A positive report for June will help rally the $USD, and vice versa.

US Factory Orders for May. The question is how bad was it for vehicles and construction machinery. The auto manufacturers reported that sales hit the wall to begin June, but I think the seriousness of the latest pullback was felt in May. I only look at Brunswick Corp to see the layoffs and plant closings in this segment.

On Thursday morning ET, the European Central Bank will release its decision on monetary policy. There is a growing expectation that the benchmark lending rate will be lifted, which will put pressure on the USD$ and on the Fed to take a similar action.

US employment report for June. In last month’s report, the biggest surprise was a half percentage point jump in the unemployment rate to 5.5% vs an expected 5.1% rate. Nonfarm payroll employment in May declined 49,000, following a decrease of 28,000 in April and a fall of 88,000 in March. These numbers are estimates, but with layoffs growing more widespread, I think the report will not be a good one.

US Non-Manufacturing Business index for June. The ISM's composite non-manufacturing index came in at 51.7 for May, down 3 tenths from April.

Friday is the Independence Holiday day in the US. All capital markets are closed there.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was another bad one for the Bulls.

There were 9 of 10 sectors that dropped in price. There were 26 of 30 Dow components that were down, just slight improvement over the previous week. While the DJIA index was actually down more this week, the overall market loss was about the same as the previous week.

The DJIA index was down -4.2% (vs -3.8% the week before). The S&P 500 lost -3.00% (vs -3.1% the prior week).

Only Merck (MRK +5.3%), Exxon (XOM +1.9%), Chevron (CHV +1.2%) and Wal-Mart (WMT +0.07%) gained.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite dropped -3.76% W/W vs the prior week’s loss of -2.0%, but the extra losses were generated in stocks like RIMM (-16.3% W/W).

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there was 1 sector up (Energy XLE +1.7%) and 9 down, which was 1 better than a week earlier. On Friday the scoreboard read 3 up and 7 down. Volume increased.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	87.18	0.69	0.80%	1.67%	0.67%	1.37%	9.66%	18.26%	9.41%	26.81%
IYH	61.07	0.23	0.38%	-0.65%	-2.85%	-5.63%	-12.88%	-3.46%	-14.32%	-12.94%
XLP	26.57	-0.18	-0.67%	-1.70%	-5.51%	-6.74%	-6.41%	-4.70%	-8.13%	-1.85%
XLU	39.84	-0.23	-0.57%	-2.16%	-3.51%	-3.56%	-5.35%	4.62%	-6.48%	1.25%
XLK	23.04	-0.04	-0.17%	-2.58%	-5.81%	-9.11%	-11.79%	2.49%	-14.41%	-10.00%
SPY	127.68	-0.55	-0.43%	-2.96%	-6.22%	-9.03%	-11.90%	-3.84%	-13.54%	-15.15%
XLB	41.82	0.25	0.60%	-3.31%	-6.11%	-6.04%	1.26%	3.34%	-0.55%	4.29%
IYZ	23.68	-0.23	-0.96%	-3.31%	-7.64%	-11.94%	-18.82%	1.72%	-20.70%	-29.77%
SMH	29.89	-0.11	-0.37%	-3.89%	-5.92%	-8.45%	-4.69%	3.43%	-8.70%	-22.54%
XLY	28.60	-0.11	-0.38%	-4.28%	-9.84%	-11.48%	-11.18%	-8.13%	-13.23%	-27.34%
XLI	33.84	-0.08	-0.24%	-5.79%	-8.59%	-12.87%	-12.13%	-8.34%	-14.07%	-13.19%
XLF	20.60	-0.24	-1.15%	-6.15%	-11.89%	-16.80%	-27.36%	-18.03%	-28.99%	-43.47%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	69.23	0.91	1.33%	6.07%	1.90%	-1.80%	-41.73%	-32.03%	-40.30%	14.89%
CEO	166.62	-1.07	-0.64%	4.96%	-0.64%	-6.02%	-0.48%	15.74%	1.14%	52.16%
TOT	83.43	1.79	2.19%	3.99%	3.72%	-4.39%	0.18%	13.23%	1.64%	7.25%
RIG	152.50	1.22	0.81%	2.48%	4.45%	1.54%	4.49%	13.73%	3.81%	41.94%
XOM	86.55	0.14	0.16%	1.93%	-2.05%	-2.49%	-7.44%	0.41%	-7.60%	3.68%
SLB	105.90	0.89	0.85%	1.73%	6.23%	4.72%	5.29%	24.03%	8.78%	21.77%
CVX	97.80	0.39	0.40%	1.22%	-1.61%	-1.36%	4.64%	15.88%	4.32%	16.58%
ECA	89.07	0.15	0.17%	-0.13%	-2.19%	-1.44%	27.96%	17.68%	30.14%	43.31%
IMO	54.53	0.20	0.37%	-0.94%	-3.95%	-6.06%	-0.71%	2.21%	-1.99%	19.22%
STO	36.70	0.85	2.37%	-1.08%	-1.63%	-6.26%	17.48%	23.15%	20.92%	24.15%
SU	58.93	-0.77	-1.29%	-3.30%	-7.82%	-13.78%	6.89%	20.41%	9.05%	34.82%
PTR	127.94	-1.02	-0.79%	-4.15%	-1.58%	-10.25%	-26.32%	5.10%	-28.49%	-12.55%

Crude Oil ($WTIC +4.85/bbl W/W to 140.21) set a new all-time record weekly close.
Accordingly, XLE gained +1.67% to close at 87.18.

While none of us knows the future, I believe that, ultimately, oil will be priced off the current supply and demand, not peak oil concepts or industry Talking Heads like Boone Pickens. If the economy stays weak, oil prices will likely drop from here. I think the economy is being squeezed by central bank policy in most countries in a joint effort to force oil prices lower.

The winners this week were PBR (+6.7%), CEO (+5.0%) and TOT (+4.0%). PTR (-4.2%) was a loser.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	72.29	3.26	4.72%	6.58%	15.53%	17.93%	62.85%	49.30%	62.63%	48.14%
RIO	35.48	-0.05	-0.14%	1.92%	2.63%	-10.81%	8.47%	3.47%	5.56%	-20.09%
TCK	47.50	0.20	0.42%	1.19%	1.47%	-4.14%	31.07%	14.43%	30.21%	10.59%
BHP	82.91	1.80	2.22%	-0.85%	0.77%	-1.70%	17.75%	27.44%	16.48%	43.29%
NUE	74.88	1.01	1.37%	-0.90%	-2.83%	0.11%	29.17%	8.19%	23.69%	29.80%
MT	99.36	0.96	0.98%	-0.99%	4.28%	0.03%	30.05%	26.01%	30.36%	60.47%
PKX	126.00	1.12	0.90%	-2.88%	-4.95%	-7.79%	-13.97%	5.51%	-16.75%	6.31%
RTP	457.69	4.01	0.88%	-4.45%	-0.94%	-5.24%	9.05%	13.04%	7.34%	52.87%
GGB	23.12	-0.02	-0.09%	-4.54%	-52.41%	-53.72%	-19.44%	-25.08%	-22.02%	-7.22%
VCP	27.04	0.36	1.35%	-4.82%	-14.46%	-19.67%	-8.96%	-5.92%	-10.99%	18.44%
AA	35.38	0.08	0.23%	-5.25%	-10.34%	-12.84%	-2.08%	0.00%	-4.35%	-9.21%
DOW	34.83	-0.27	-0.77%	-7.32%	-10.81%	-13.79%	-10.12%	-5.56%	-13.51%	-21.84%

Basic Materials (XLB -3.31% closing at 41.82) was a loser this week, even more so than the prior week’s loss of -2.90%.

The economy is a great leveler. For the past couple weeks, the Papers and Chemicals have fared badly.

In this sector, TS (+6.6%) had another strong week, but AA again did not, and Dow Chemical lost -7.3% this week.

As you can see in my table, the source data for GGB does not recognize the share split.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FLR	184.38	0.91	0.50%	-3.74%	-0.97%	-1.16%	27.69%	33.23%	27.26%	77.08%
FDX	77.25	-0.84	-1.08%	-4.08%	-10.15%	-15.77%	-10.34%	-15.78%	-15.94%	-30.78%
GE	26.26	-0.27	-1.02%	-4.09%	-9.91%	-14.52%	-28.56%	-28.70%	-29.39%	-31.00%
MMM	69.51	-0.75	-1.07%	-4.81%	-8.68%	-10.38%	-15.96%	-10.72%	-18.61%	-20.22%
ABB	28.77	0.56	1.99%	-5.30%	-3.91%	-11.42%	0.45%	9.06%	-0.10%	29.59%
CAT	73.75	-0.53	-0.71%	-6.74%	-9.51%	-10.76%	4.42%	-4.26%	1.40%	-7.24%
TXT	47.93	0.20	0.42%	-7.22%	-17.62%	-23.37%	-28.26%	-11.65%	-32.64%	-12.55%
UPS	60.36	0.48	0.80%	-9.06%	-11.64%	-15.01%	-12.72%	-17.12%	-16.05%	-17.94%
HON	49.23	0.09	0.18%	-9.17%	-12.85%	-17.43%	-17.81%	-10.49%	-19.55%	-12.57%
UTX	61.15	-1.64	-2.61%	-11.12%	-10.81%	-13.92%	-18.69%	-11.90%	-20.42%	-14.48%
BA	66.92	-1.29	-1.89%	-11.75%	-10.92%	-19.15%	-22.74%	-9.84%	-24.71%	-29.30%
ERJ	26.84	-1.07	-3.83%	-12.00%	-14.93%	-28.46%	-40.53%	-32.83%	-42.82%	-44.88%

The Industrials (XLI -5.79% W/W) had another tough week, closing at 33.84. The prior week’s loss was -2.97%.

FLR was relatively the strongest again this week, but this week there was a loss of 3.74% in the stock. The biggest losers were: ERJ (-12%), BA (-11.8%), UTX (-11.1%), HON (-9.2%) and UPS (-9.1%).

As I opined last week, “Interesting comparison between the styles of the FDX and GE CEO’s. The Fedex guy says business is terrible and not looking good for the foreseeable period, while Jeff Immelt at GE is always saying things are coming up roses.” This week, UPS takes a big hit.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BBBY	29.06	-0.73	-2.45%	0.87%	-3.23%	-8.79%	2.47%	-3.52%	0.07%	-22.63%
JCP	36.83	0.85	2.36%	-0.14%	-6.69%	-8.47%	-11.57%	-9.11%	-14.86%	-48.67%
BDK	58.41	-0.33	-0.56%	-0.15%	-3.09%	-9.72%	-16.47%	-11.35%	-16.09%	-34.38%
DIS	31.57	0.04	0.13%	-1.16%	-6.96%	-6.04%	-0.85%	0.61%	-2.65%	-7.88%
EBAY	27.61	0.02	0.07%	-1.99%	-2.71%	-8.00%	-15.02%	-10.18%	-17.95%	-13.93%
WHR	63.77	-2.48	-3.74%	-3.38%	-6.93%	-13.45%	-20.17%	-25.41%	-21.74%	-43.39%
TM	94.33	-0.17	-0.18%	-3.46%	-8.16%	-7.56%	-11.39%	-7.75%	-12.27%	-23.84%
TGT	47.87	0.23	0.48%	-4.22%	-10.59%	-10.29%	-3.31%	-6.10%	-5.47%	-24.91%
BC	11.25	-0.31	-2.68%	-5.22%	-14.45%	-17.88%	-33.51%	-33.04%	-35.49%	-65.80%
CCL	32.93	-0.54	-1.61%	-7.16%	-10.98%	-17.80%	-24.58%	-19.23%	-25.98%	-32.10%
NKE	60.34	0.84	1.41%	-9.58%	-12.54%	-11.74%	-4.65%	-8.55%	-7.17%	3.52%
GOL	11.26	-0.05	-0.44%	-11.96%	-9.92%	-26.69%	-53.06%	-32.17%	-55.91%	-65.71%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -4.28% closing at 28.60) was a big loser. Even with the rebates, the US consumer is not putting more cash in the register than the cost of goods sold is being impacted by material and delivery costs. A week earlier, XLY lost -5.80%, but the loss that Friday was -3.61%, so the loss over six days is -7.9%, which is slightly better than the six day loss for XLI (also -7.9%), which is almost as bad as the six-day loss of -9.7% in the Financials (XLF).

The big Cara 100 losers here were GOL (-12.0%), NKE (-9.6%) and CCL (-7.2%).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KR	28.65	0.04	0.14%	6.51%	3.80%	3.65%	11.61%	15.76%	6.55%	1.42%
BUD	62.26	0.91	1.48%	2.62%	1.87%	8.35%	20.59%	29.74%	17.56%	20.94%
WMT	56.30	-0.53	-0.93%	0.07%	-4.87%	-2.49%	20.04%	7.50%	17.86%	16.18%
DEO	72.70	-1.11	-1.50%	-0.68%	-4.68%	-7.53%	-14.53%	-12.73%	-15.83%	-14.59%
PEP	63.93	-0.84	-1.30%	-1.77%	-5.34%	-6.40%	-15.09%	-10.20%	-16.65%	-1.90%
KO	51.84	-1.38	-2.59%	-3.39%	-6.46%	-9.47%	-15.14%	-15.45%	-16.79%	-1.14%
ABV	63.25	-0.61	-0.96%	-3.54%	-8.09%	-7.89%	-12.73%	-18.99%	-12.66%	-7.41%
PG	60.49	-1.76	-2.83%	-4.23%	-8.97%	-8.42%	-16.35%	-12.85%	-18.14%	-1.53%
PDA	54.78	1.17	2.18%	-4.46%	-6.77%	-16.62%	13.82%	13.91%	10.15%	39.11%
SBUX	16.35	0.07	0.43%	-5.11%	-10.02%	-10.12%	-15.33%	-7.21%	-20.09%	-37.43%
WAG	32.97	0.09	0.27%	-5.99%	-9.07%	-8.47%	-11.70%	-11.51%	-14.10%	-25.19%
WFMI	24.65	-0.45	-1.79%	-6.34%	-9.24%	-15.00%	-38.00%	-25.69%	-40.39%	-36.55%

If Consumer Discretionary stocks have been hammered so badly the past six sessions, you might think the same was true for the other two consumer-oriented sectors (ie, Staples and Healthcare), but that wasn’t the case. This week, Consumer Staples (XLP -1.70% W/W) closed at 26.57, and Healthcare was down just 0.65%. And the previous Friday also wasn’t that bad. So, what’s happening here in the broad market is that, besides the Energy play, traders are taking a safest-haven move into Staples and Healthcare.

KR (+6.5%) was the Consumer Staples winner on the week. The losers were WFMI (-6.3%) and WAG (-6.0%).

As an aside, when I reviewed the backtesting results of my ‘simple little’ RSI system, the worst results by far were in the Staples and Healthcare sectors. Geoff reported that, for our most basic models, over the period from October 1, 2003 through June 17, 2008, the S&P 500 returned +28% vs a portfolio of leading Cara 100 stocks (ex-Staples & Healthcare) where the portfolio returned +441%. Due to the sampling methods, our study results are not useful for apples to apples comparison, but can be used for conceptual discussion. In any case, our objective is to build decision-support systems, ie, for guidance only, not decision-making systems. At the end of the day, we make our own buy and sell decisions.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVO	66.00	-1.85	-2.73%	3.90%	7.39%	1.07%	3.45%	-1.95%	1.34%	-37.99%
BMY	20.30	0.63	3.20%	3.73%	0.89%	-10.93%	-22.31%	-4.69%	-25.89%	-36.66%
NVS