Oh, it was painful and I’m not just referring to the fact we caught only two fish on Sunday and then I fell down while running at the Hash on Monday, spraining elbow and knee, which is still an issue. Yes, the market also fell and the Bear ate more than one snapper and one grouper.

The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite dropped -3.8%, -3.1% and -2.0%, respectively, this past week. Of the international equity indexes, the Sensex 30 of India was in worse shape, falling -4.1%. Only the closely located Hong Kong, Singapore and Philippines were up, although minimally.

This week, it appears that a selling wave has gained sufficient momentum to overwhelm the Interventionists aka the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). If the DJIA breaks below the narrow 11,700-11,750 range, and I think it will this week, there could a rapid drop to 11,000. That would likely be the end of the second major selling wave. A couple months later, the third and possibly last one could take the DJIA down to 10,000, which is what I predicted a couple years ago as the market was in the process of finding a cycle peak.

That peak, by the way, was extended by the man I call Mr. Moral Hazard, who pumped up equity prices after taking an interim job as US Treasury Secretary -- prior to his return as leader of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B).

This coming week we get to look at the plummeting US Consumer Confidence index. Check the chart and you’ll see that the month following the hiring of Secretary Henry Paulson in May-June 2006, the US retail sales index started to plunge, and a year later the Consumer Confidence index started to crash.

You have heard this from me before, but I say the People won’t be happy until he’s removed, which will be a day of considerable disappointment for his banker friends. You see, Mr. Paulson wants to set up all banks and brokers as a self regulatory organization under the Federal Reserve Bank of the US. I am confident in saying that the rest of the world’s regulators and governments have different ideas.

While I may have pulled his leg a bit, I’ve never said negative things about Prof. Bernanke, who rules the roost at the Fed and who will report on monetary policy this Wednesday at the usual 2:15pm time. At least you and I can understand what this Fed Head is saying, even if I don’t always agree. Besides, I love to watch the grilling he gets in Congress from Rep Dr. Ron Paul. You can tell the truth hurts by the expression on Bernanke’s face, and that’s the way it should be.

The Fed meets on Tuesday and reports on monetary policy on Wednesday. There is something like less than a 10 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates after their meeting, and if that do-nothing approach comes true, I suspect (after the FOMC traders try to make it look good) that the $USD will tumble a bit more, which ought to help gold. But here is where I think the precious metal boosters may get to be disappointed because there could be changes forthcoming in the margin requirements on global futures exchanges.

I don’t know this of course, but I can feel it in my injured knee.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Weekly International Economic Report .

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US Pending Home Sales data for April. Per Econoday, “The pending home sales index really snapped back in April, jumping 6.3% month-on-month and cutting the year-on-year decline to 13.1% to end five months of 20% declines.” These are sales contracts and not closings. If the market continues to weaken and/or mortgage money gets cheaper this month and next, I suspect many deals will not close.

US Housing Starts for May. Econoday reports, “Housing starts in May resumed a downward slide. Starts fell 3.3%, following a 2.0% rebound in April. The May pace of 0.975 million units annualized was down 32.1% year-on-year and was a little worse than the consensus forecast for 0.985 million units. The May decline was led by an 8.0% drop in multifamily starts as single-family starts fell another 1.0%.” The biggest weakness was in the mid-west.

US Producer Price Index for May. The Consensus is for a growth in PPI M/M of an astounding +1.0%. Econoday reports, “Producer price inflation in May surged at the headline level while the core rate remained moderate. The overall PPI jumped a red hot 1.4%, following a modest 0.2% rise in April. The May spike was well above the market projection for a 1.0% surge in the overall PPI.” The high price is a cost that will work itself through the manufacturing and shipping industries, and be soon passed along to consumers, which will zip the CPI.

US Industrial Production Report for May. Econoday reports, “Industrial production in May unexpectedly fell but the decline was primarily due to a drop in utilities output. But the bottom line still is that the manufacturing sector is flat.” It’s getting worse for industries like autos. This business cycle (aka the inventory cycle) has a way to go, I think, before the bottom is reached. Blame it on the banks, and for that you can blame it on the head honcho at the banks during the period of excessive and ridiculous credit expansion, the current Treasury Secretary himself, the man who wants the US Treasury to pay for the indiscretions of his colleagues and for the chief fox to rule the henhouse of all financial services companies. With leadership like this, US industrial production may go the way of the buggy whip. Come to think of it, with fuel costs rising to the extent they have under this Treasury Secretary’s watch, we may soon go back to use of horses and buggy whips!

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar. In addition to the US Consumer Confidence index and the Fed monetary policy decision being reported on Wednesday, there are some other key reports.

US Durable Goods data for May. The US auto industry is in tatters, which likely means the expensive household machines are not selling well either. While I’m not keen on buying the shares of any US auto manufacturer, I am looking closely at Whirlpool (WHR). $60 is a target, but even at the current $66, the stock’s PE is under 8.5 and the dividend yield above 2.6%. I happen to think Whirlpool is, if not the world’s best durable goods manufacturer, one of the best.

US New Home Sales for May. The consensus is for an annual rate of 515,000 units. Let’s check out the average selling price. BTW, if I’m interested in buying the shares of a US homebuilder, and I’m not, I would be looking only at the ones that didn’t self-finance their sales at the cycle peak. That problem is just like the banks’ problem, which is an explanation for why a year ago or more the bank analysts were telling us they loved the homebuilders group and we all laughed. So, unless you know with certainty the extent of a company’s liabilities, real and contingent, you ought to stay away! There are too many viable alternatives to get potentially stuck with (more) pain.

US Existing Home Sales for May. The consensus is for an annual rate of 5 million units, which if true would be a good bump. Let’s check out the average selling price here too.

US Personal Income and Spending for May. Let’s see if the big spenders in April have spent their so-called tax rebates.

U of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June. The question is how low will the index fall before bottoming.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was a bad one for the Bulls.

There were 10 of 10 sectors that dropped in price. There were 28 of 30 Dow components that were down.

Even without the big losses on Friday, only two of the ten sector ETF’s would have been up (XLE and XLU).

The DJIA index was down -3.8% W/W and -10.7% over the past year. The S&P 500 lost -3.1% W/W, and -10.2% over the past year.

Only Boeing (BA +0.95%) and United Technologies (UTX +0.35%) gained.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASAQ Composite dropped -2.0% W/W.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were no sectors up and all 10 down. On Friday the scoreboard also read all 10 sectors down. Volume increased.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	85.75	-0.88	-1.02%	-0.98%	-0.31%	-2.28%	7.86%	21.10%	10.65%	24.15%
XLU	40.72	-0.91	-2.19%	-1.38%	0.44%	-2.16%	-3.25%	8.73%	-5.83%	3.85%
SMH	31.10	-0.58	-1.83%	-2.11%	-3.15%	-3.72%	-0.83%	6.91%	-5.24%	-17.68%
IYH	61.47	-0.83	-1.33%	-2.21%	-3.21%	-3.89%	-12.31%	-2.57%	-13.98%	-12.44%
XLB	43.25	-1.20	-2.70%	-2.90%	-2.08%	-2.77%	4.72%	12.92%	4.04%	6.06%
XLI	35.92	-0.76	-2.07%	-2.97%	-2.95%	-6.24%	-6.73%	-1.94%	-8.02%	-8.60%
XLK	23.65	-0.60	-2.47%	-3.31%	-4.33%	-3.59%	-9.46%	5.63%	-11.62%	-7.94%
SPY	131.58	-2.85	-2.12%	-3.36%	-3.46%	-5.68%	-9.21%	-0.38%	-10.37%	-12.94%
XLP	27.03	-0.47	-1.71%	-3.88%	-3.29%	-4.22%	-4.79%	-2.14%	-6.66%	-0.33%
IYZ	24.49	-0.71	-2.82%	-4.49%	-8.55%	-6.81%	-16.04%	6.29%	-17.35%	-27.72%
XLY	29.88	-1.12	-3.61%	-5.80%	-4.41%	-7.35%	-7.20%	-4.38%	-9.86%	-24.77%
XLF	21.95	-0.79	-3.47%	-6.12%	-5.92%	-12.34%	-22.60%	-16.35%	-24.41%	-40.58%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SLB	104.10	-0.73	-0.70%	4.42%	2.12%	1.59%	3.50%	29.09%	14.67%	22.82%
PTR	133.48	-7.01	-4.99%	2.68%	-1.83%	-6.43%	-23.13%	8.92%	-23.29%	-9.26%
RIG	148.81	0.72	0.49%	1.92%	3.70%	-4.06%	1.96%	13.47%	8.71%	43.90%
TOT	80.23	0.41	0.51%	-0.26%	-5.02%	-10.40%	-3.66%	12.04%	0.96%	2.09%
STO	37.10	-0.47	-1.25%	-0.56%	-3.46%	-12.15%	18.76%	31.93%	28.86%	27.71%
ECA	89.19	-1.51	-1.66%	-2.05%	-3.68%	-5.43%	28.13%	24.13%	32.09%	37.94%
CVX	96.62	-0.24	-0.25%	-2.80%	-2.89%	-5.19%	3.38%	16.12%	4.96%	19.33%
IMO	55.05	-0.47	-0.85%	-3.03%	-7.56%	-8.90%	0.24%	9.40%	5.34%	17.73%
XOM	84.91	-0.88	-1.03%	-3.90%	-2.17%	-8.22%	-9.20%	-0.11%	-7.84%	2.52%
PBR	65.27	-1.38	-2.07%	-3.93%	-4.11%	-9.37%	-45.06%	-31.90%	-39.56%	8.03%
SU	60.94	-0.64	-1.04%	-4.68%	-10.20%	-15.16%	10.54%	30.19%	16.56%	36.91%
CEO	158.75	-4.45	-2.73%	-5.34%	-7.32%	-19.90%	-5.18%	17.81%	0.77%	37.15%

Crude Oil ($WTIC -$0.11/bbl W/W to 135.36) stayed close to the all-time record close of 138.54 that was set two weeks ago. Hedge fund speculators like Mr. Boone Pickens are trying to make a point! As I wrote here a week ago, the hedge funds are attributing the rally to “Peak Oil” and others are saying that the hedge funds are hoarding oil to squeeze the shorts. There is only so much fight in that dog.

This week, XLE lost -0.98%, thanks entirely to Friday’s loss of -1.02%.

Big Oil in the US, ie, XOM -3.90% W/W to $84.91 is sliding. When it was 94-95, I opined that XOM would sink, possibly to the high 70’s. That’s only $5.00 away.

Two weeks ago in this space, I opined “…which makes me believe that if Oil prices hold on Monday morning, then the oil stocks will rally a tad before getting hammered again. Ultimately, oil will be priced off the current supply and demand, not peak oil concepts or industry Talking Heads like Boone Pickens… If the economy stays weak, oil prices will likely drop from here. As I say, in time they will have to because critically important industries like the airlines cannot make profits when the price of oil is over $100, or anywhere close, even when they cut capacity… Suffice to say, this is a serious problem and oil prices will have to come down or we’ll all have to move to a small island. :-)”

Same old, same old. But let’s use common sense when reading the hype that comes from the world’s biggest political lobby group. And this bit about saving America, saving the world, from high oil prices by drilling in its most pristine shoreline regions is just such a crock. Remember the Exxon Valdez? How quickly people forget.

SLB and PTR were strong this week, and they were the only ones (in my list) that were up through Thursday, before Friday’s killer of a session. Most of the oils, drillers and oil service companies were soft all week, which goes to show that traders don’t think the high oil and gas prices we have today are going to stick.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	67.83	-0.55	-0.80%	8.41%	4.92%	10.80%	52.80%	50.47%	55.64%	42.05%
MT	100.35	-1.34	-1.32%	5.32%	-2.58%	1.56%	31.35%	35.44%	40.55%	52.95%
RTP	479.00	-0.50	-0.10%	3.67%	2.40%	-8.84%	14.13%	23.61%	18.37%	57.59%
BHP	83.62	-3.15	-3.63%	1.63%	-0.24%	-9.40%	18.76%	33.13%	22.07%	43.55%
RIO	34.81	-1.27	-3.52%	0.69%	-7.02%	-16.00%	6.42%	12.91%	7.24%	-22.64%
TCK	46.94	-1.60	-3.30%	0.28%	-3.34%	-6.68%	29.53%	24.97%	38.88%	4.66%
NUE	75.56	-1.75	-2.26%	-1.95%	-3.38%	1.44%	30.34%	9.57%	27.89%	22.74%
PKX	129.73	-6.07	-4.47%	-2.13%	-6.33%	-3.01%	-11.42%	15.94%	-11.99%	3.03%
DOW	37.58	-0.71	-1.85%	-3.76%	-3.09%	-9.71%	-3.02%	3.02%	-8.36%	-16.77%
AA	37.34	-1.78	-4.55%	-5.37%	-4.79%	-8.48%	3.35%	7.67%	5.51%	-7.23%
VCP	28.41	-0.90	-3.07%	-10.12%	-17.29%	-10.44%	-4.34%	1.46%	-7.46%	22.40%
GGB	24.22	-27.32	-53.01%	-50.14%	-52.08%	-51.38%	-15.61%	-20.67%	-14.36%	-1.58%

Basic Materials (XLB -2.90% closing at 43.25) was a loser this week thanks largely to Friday’s loss of -2.70%.

But then you knew it would be a tough week after the previous week’s big gain on Friday and I opined in the WIR that “Friday was a trap, I feel. Next week, there will be more losses in Basic Materials and Energy stocks as well. The G-8 ministers and central bankers are on the warpath. If commercial and investment banks want to continue to feed at the public trough, they had better march to the G-8 drummers. Ergo: don’t be long the commodity price beneficiaries for a while. That could be painful.”

Strictly speaking, the Oils were the strongest this week on a relative basis, but they also lost -1%. Let’s see what next week brings. Boone Pickens and his oil hedgie friends don’t have pockets deep enough to hold up the oil market forever. Once the oil price goes down, so too will the basic materials and many other commodities.

The economy is a great leveler.

In this sector, TS and MT had strong weeks, but VCP and AA did not. As you can see in my table, the source data for GGB does not recognize the share split.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FLR	191.55	1.68	0.88%	2.88%	5.35%	1.49%	32.65%	46.08%	36.33%	80.35%
ABB	30.38	-0.68	-2.19%	1.47%	-4.22%	-7.80%	6.08%	25.49%	12.48%	36.91%
BA	75.83	-1.12	-1.46%	0.95%	3.65%	-6.85%	-12.46%	1.38%	-13.03%	-21.08%
UTX	68.80	-0.02	-0.03%	0.35%	2.67%	-4.23%	-8.52%	-0.30%	-9.95%	-4.22%
UPS	66.37	-0.47	-0.70%	-2.84%	-3.24%	-4.30%	-4.03%	-7.38%	-7.30%	-8.97%
CAT	79.08	-0.40	-0.50%	-2.97%	-1.14%	-3.82%	11.96%	7.07%	10.59%	-2.83%
ERJ	30.50	0.65	2.18%	-3.33%	-8.33%	-20.01%	-32.42%	-23.75%	-33.62%	-38.90%
HON	54.20	-1.15	-2.08%	-4.05%	0.35%	-8.71%	-9.52%	-0.17%	-10.69%	-4.16%
MMM	73.02	-1.10	-1.48%	-4.07%	-2.46%	-4.72%	-11.72%	-6.36%	-13.58%	-16.15%
GE	27.38	-0.53	-1.90%	-6.07%	-8.79%	-11.71%	-25.52%	-26.97%	-25.03%	-29.92%
FDX	80.54	-1.19	-1.46%	-6.33%	-9.36%	-9.33%	-6.52%	-7.44%	-13.98%	-26.65%
TXT	51.66	-1.08	-2.05%	-11.21%	-12.37%	-16.03%	-22.68%	-3.55%	-25.09%	-7.62%

The Industrials (XLI -2.97% W/W) had a tough week, largely due to the loss (-2.07%) on Friday. The close was 35.92.

FLR and ABB were strong but TXT, FDX and GE were not.

Interesting comparison between the styles of the FDX and GE CEO’s. The Fedex guy says business is terrible and not looking good for the foreseeable period, while Jeff Immelt at GE is always saying things are coming up roses. His stock, however, dropped -6.1% and is down -25.5% YTD and -29.9% over the past year. Yes, I think the company is better managed since Jack Welch retired, and it’s financially stronger and better positioned in the marketplace, but losing -30% in a year (and the Bear has just begun) is not going to endear Immelt to his Board.

For the most part, the Value Line report of April 11 on GE was a time and money waster. Shortly after publishing the report, calling GE a market outperformer at $38.43, the stock plummeted to 30 and is now down to 27.38, and falling. That’s what happens to companies with substantial financial operations, and a CEO who will only look on the bright side. The rest of the company looks healthy.

Nevertheless, the data shows that GE is sound overall and should be a core holding when entering new positions at or close to the broad market cycle bottom.

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

Like GE, I think that CEOs ought to be paid to hype their company. They’re leaders and leadership requires positive thinking and talking. It’s why I believe that corporate CFOs should be the only ones that deliver financial results.

Fedex (FDX) lost -6.3% this week and -3.24% a week ago. That’s a signal that the Industrial Production data coming this week is likely to be severe.

A week ago in this space I wrote, “Honeywell (HON +4.6%) was the leader and ABB (ABB) -5.6% was hammered. Next week, HON may dance to a different tune. The stock has support at $54. The low this week was 54.01. It then bounced to 57 after a rally on Thursday and Friday. But the 200day MA is about 58 and dropping, so there will be resistance ahead.”

This week, HON dropped -4.1% to $54.20. The support at $54 held for now.

And ABB was up +1.5%.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GOL	12.79	-0.72	-5.33%	2.32%	-9.36%	-13.23%	-46.69%	-20.71%	-48.39%	-62.39%
EBAY	28.17	-1.00	-3.43%	-0.74%	-3.73%	-7.79%	-13.30%	-1.50%	-15.58%	-9.48%
BDK	58.50	-1.16	-1.94%	-2.94%	-5.81%	-8.42%	-16.34%	-12.91%	-16.93%	-34.08%
NKE	66.73	-1.11	-1.64%	-3.28%	-1.77%	2.65%	5.45%	-0.80%	1.09%	24.43%
WHR	66.00	-0.90	-1.35%	-3.68%	-3.99%	-8.83%	-17.38%	-25.63%	-19.07%	-42.41%
BBBY	28.81	-0.87	-2.93%	-4.06%	-5.45%	-8.42%	1.59%	-7.54%	-1.13%	-23.13%
CCL	35.47	-1.37	-3.72%	-4.11%	-4.73%	-6.53%	-18.76%	-13.26%	-19.40%	-28.18%
TM	97.71	-4.44	-4.35%	-4.87%	-4.80%	-2.76%	-8.22%	-5.28%	-7.70%	-21.01%
DIS	31.94	-0.95	-2.89%	-5.87%	-3.24%	-4.97%	0.31%	0.13%	-1.21%	-6.58%
JCP	36.88	-0.37	-0.99%	-6.56%	-4.38%	-8.96%	-11.45%	-12.44%	-15.22%	-50.24%
TGT	49.98	-1.82	-3.51%	-6.65%	-4.84%	-5.72%	0.95%	-4.53%	-0.46%	-22.21%
BC	11.87	-0.58	-4.66%	-9.73%	-11.22%	-21.08%	-29.85%	-31.82%	-33.46%	-64.68%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -5.80% closing at 29.88) was next to Financials (XLF -6.1%) the worst sector performer. The loss on Friday was -3.61%.

The big Cara 100 loser here was Brunswick (BC -9.73% W/W and -4.7% on Friday). At the close Friday, Brunswick was removed from the S&P 500 index due to its small capital size now. BC was added to the S&P SmallCap 600.

The US Retailers had a bad day Friday. I suspect they will have more days like that before the Bear hibernates. A check of my Retailer monitor shows a list of those that dropped -4% or more on Friday. Here is the closing price, $ change on Friday, % change:

Pacific Sunwear of California [PSUN] 9.18 -0.69 (-6.99%)
The Dress Barn, Inc. [DBRN] 14.52 -1.03 (-6.62%)
Coldwater Creek Inc. [CWTR] 5.71 -0.38 (-6.24%)
Dollar Tree, Inc. [DLTR] 35.25 -1.83 (-4.94%)
Dillard's, Inc. [DDS] 13.10 -0.65 (-4.73%)
Barnes & Noble, Inc. [BKS] 26.00 -1.28 (-4.69%)
RadioShack Corporation [RSH] 13.16 -0.60 (-4.36%)
99 Cents Only Stores [NDN] 7.20 -0.32 (-4.26%)
Starbucks Corporation [SBUX] 17.23 -0.76 (-4.22%)
Cache, Inc. [CACH] 12.55 -0.55 (-4.20%)
Pier 1 Imports, Inc. [PIR] 4.80 -0.21 (-4.19%)
Fred's, Inc. [FRED] 12.19 -0.53 (-4.17%)
Limited Brands, Inc. [LTD] 18.21 -0.76 (-4.01%)
Kohl's Corporation [KSS] 43.39 -1.81 (-4.00%)

As a chart watcher, I like to look at the ones that started their Bear ahead of the others, and look for similar patterns among a group of them. Typically the selling comes from ‘smart hands’ ie, insiders and large, sophisticated traders. What happens is that these traders are locking in profits, but thinking long-term to when they can get back in. Then it’s ‘first in- first out’ again in the next cycle. Most traders think the opposite is happening when they see the stocks of good companies tank ahead of the peer group, but I know better.

Peer group studies are very important in my assessment of the market.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BUD	60.67	-0.38	-0.62%	-0.74%	5.92%	15.39%	17.51%	31.83%	14.62%	14.93%
PDA	57.34	-1.71	-2.90%	-2.42%	-0.80%	-2.73%	19.14%	14.61%	15.63%	61.29%
KR	26.90	0.41	1.55%	-2.54%	-1.47%	-1.14%	4.79%	5.91%	1.09%	-10.93%
WFMI	26.32	-0.25	-0.94%	-3.09%	-7.65%	-6.00%	-33.80%	-19.39%	-36.97%	-32.58%
KO	53.66	0.30	0.56%	-3.18%	-3.84%	-7.91%	-12.16%	-12.09%	-13.84%	4.21%
WAG	35.07	-0.37	-1.04%	-3.28%	-1.29%	-1.71%	-6.08%	-4.65%	-3.26%	-19.67%
PEP	65.08	-0.81	-1.23%	-3.64%	-0.67%	-4.83%	-13.56%	-8.58%	-14.92%	-0.67%
DEO	73.20	-0.11	-0.15%	-4.03%	-5.50%	-6.63%	-13.94%	-8.91%	-14.37%	-13.88%
ABV	65.57	-1.49	-2.22%	-4.72%	-1.16%	-10.99%	-9.53%	-14.71%	-8.41%	-8.04%
WMT	56.26	-1.43	-2.48%	-4.93%	-3.61%	0.37%	19.96%	5.69%	17.58%	15.79%
PG	63.16	-1.74	-2.68%	-4.95%	-3.38%	-3.75%	-12.65%	-8.95%	-13.70%	1.97%
SBUX	17.23	-0.76	-4.22%	-5.17%	-2.49%	0.82%	-10.77%	-1.71%	-16.07%	-36.93%

Consumer Staples (XLP -3.88% W/W) closed at 27.03.

Most of the leaders had a tough week: SBUX -5.2%, PG -5.0% and WMT -4.9%. That’s what happens to good companies in Bear markets. Trader have to learn how to sell and sell short, which brings to mind the write-up I did this week for Dr. Alex Elder’s new book. Buy it. Then we’ll discuss it in the Discourse, and Dr. Elder himself might wish to participate for a day. :-) (smiley goes here because I haven’t asked him.) But he did let me publish a brief excerpt, which starts with the timeless notion from the Book of Ecclesiastes. [You’ll find me write about it down under Time Series Analysis at this link.]

Sell & Sell Short
There is a time to grow and a time to decline. A time to plant and a time to reap.

That cute puppy bouncing up and down in your living room will some day become an old decrepit dog whom you will have to drive to the vet’s office to put out of its misery.

That stock you bought with such great hopes and which you enjoyed watching grow has now rolled over and is cutting into your capital instead of increasing it. It is time to shoot the puppy.

This is a book about selling.

Buying is fun. It grows out of hope, great expectations, a chest full of air. Selling is a hard unsmiling business, like driving that poor old dog to the vet for its final injection. But sell you must. And that’s what this book is about.

And once you and I talk about selling – that hard cold reality at the end of almost every trade – we will not stop. We will talk about selling short. Amateurs don’t know how to short and are afraid of it, but professionals love shorting and profit from declines.

Stocks go down much faster than they rise, and a trader who knows how to short doubles his or her opportunities. But before you sell short you must learn to sell and sell well.

So let us take off those rose-colored glasses and learn to sell.

Why Sell

We buy when we feel optimistic – or are afraid of missing a good thing. Perhaps you read a story about a new product or heard rumors of a merger. Maybe you ran a technical scan or found a promising chart pattern on the screen. You had some money in your account and called your broker or went on-line to place a buy order.

You’ve received a confirmation – now you own this stock. That’s when the stress begins.

If the stock stays flat and goes nowhere you feel restless. Did you pick a wrong one again?! Others are going up – should you sell yours?

If your stock begins to rise, it creates a different kind of anxiety. Should you take profits now, add to your position, or do nothing? Doing nothing is hard, especially for men, who are trained from childhood on ‘don’t just stand there, do something!’

When your stock drops, the anxiety becomes mixed with pain –‘I’ll sell as soon as it comes back to even.’

Amazingly, the most psychologically comfortable position for most traders is a slight decline in their stock. It is not sharp enough to be painful, and with the stock near your entry price there is probably not much reason to sell. With no action required, you have a perfect excuse to sit back and do nothing. It feels good not to have to make any decisions! That is how a small loss can gradually become bigger and badder.

If you throw a frog into a pot of hot water, it will jump, but if you heat it slowly, you can cook it alive. Traders with no clear selling plans can end up boiled alive.

The worst time for making any decision, including the one to sell, is when you feel under the gun. This is the reason why I urge you to write down a trading plan, as shown below, before you put on a trade (see How to Document Your Trading Plan). A good plan must outline your reasons for entering a trade, define your entry price, a protective stop, and a profit target. Setting stop and target levels means making a decision to sell. Making those decisions before you enter a trade allows you to use your brain instead of jumping in response to heat like some poor frog.

Psychologists have proven that the quality of decisions we make under stress is lower than those we make in a peaceful and relaxed frame of mind. You are likely to make better decisions, increase your profits, and reduce your losses if you write down your selling plan before you buy that stock.

A written trading plan accomplishes an amazing feat – it increases your profits and reduces losses!

So, why not do it?

Two reasons. First of all, most traders have never been taught what you have just read. Beginners and outsiders simply do not have the knowledge.

The other reason is that people like to dream. A written plan cuts into their sweet day-dreaming business. It feels nice to lean back and drift into a vague fantasy of riches. Sitting up straight on a hard-back chair and writing down your specific goals as well as a contingency plan robs you of that vague day-dream.

We all like to day-dream, but since you have picked up this book I will assume that you have chosen the pleasure of real money over that of day-dreaming. You probably want to learn how to sell, so that you can make more money while risking less.

In that case, we are on the same page. But before you write down your selling plan, let us review some of the key principles of buying. We also need to discuss the two key factors that separate winners from losers – money management and record-keeping. Armed with this knowledge, we will be ready to turn our attention to selling and then to shorting.

The book is from Wiley Trading and is available at Amazon.com.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVO	63.52	-0.65	-1.01%	3.35%	-5.66%	-4.54%	-0.44%	-4.65%	-2.13%	-37.13%
NVS	51.64	0.89	1.75%	3.09%	-1.45%	-2.20%	-5.37%	5.28%	-4.67%	-6.99%
GSK	43.32	-0.32	-0.73%	3.04%	2.34%	-3.41%	-13.65%	3.17%	-14.61%	-17.33%
AMGN	45.17	0.31	0.69%	2.73%	2.10%	5.61%	-3.07%	12.62%	-5.03%	-21.72%
DNA	74.76	-0.30	-0.40%	1.34%	1.45%	8.52%	10.92%	-5.68%	10.01%	-0.85%
MDT	50.87	-0.52	-1.01%	-1.30%	0.99%	0.26%	2.77%	4.82%	1.96%	-1.32%
BMY	19.57	-0.35	-1.76%	-2.73%	-6.27%	-10.84%	-25.11%	-8.81%	-29.83%	-37.34%
JNJ	64.06	-0.56	-0.87%	-3.33%	-2.59%	-2.06%	-2.81%	-2.02%	-4.86%	3.26%
PFE	17.33	-0.44	-2.48%	-3.67%	-3.51%	-12.39%	-24.36%	-15.83%	-25.37%	-32.59%
AET	40.95	-0.90	-2.15%	-7.98%	-11.90%	-12.18%	-27.70%	-4.97%	-29.51%	-17.24%
WLP	48.30	-0.98	-1.99%	-10.24%	-12.88%	-12.89%	-44.48%	5.37%	-45.42%	-39.88%
UNH	27.12	-0.77	-2.76%	-11.78%	-17.89%	-23.17%	-52.14%	-23.22%	-53.33%	-47.34%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) lost -2.21% W/W to close at 61.47.

This sector was split this week with the non-financially oriented ones (like Big Pharma) on the plus side and stocks like UNH (-11.8%), WLP (-10.2%) and AET (-8.0%) getting smoked.

The leaders on my list are NVO (+3.4%), NVS (+3.1%) and GSK (+3.0%).

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	183.77	-3.16	-1.69%	3.07%	8.46%	3.71%	-11.48%	2.30%	-9.33%	-18.65%
HBC	78.97	-1.13	-1.41%	-1.83%	-4.12%	-6.70%	-4.21%	-1.78%	-5.20%	-15.09%
BBD	21.41	-0.60	-2.73%	-2.95%	-5.43%	-5.77%	-29.64%	-23.64%	-31.99%	-13.63%
JPM	37.86	-0.79	-2.04%	-4.35%	-5.56%	-12.06%	-10.22%	-17.70%	-12.62%	-23.45%
CS	45.83	-1.17	-2.49%	-5.07%	-6.45%	-12.20%	-23.21%	-7.38%	-21.85%	-38.10%
MER	35.95	-1.74	-4.62%	-5.39%	-7.87%	-19.21%	-31.86%	-22.69%	-34.04%	-59.00%
DB	91.09	-3.87	-4.08%	-5.46%	-8.97%	-21.62%	-29.42%	-18.86%	-27.37%	-39.45%
MS	38.68	-1.51	-3.76%	-5.75%	-5.22%	-9.94%	-24.08%	-22.50%	-24.70%	-55.70%
C	19.30	-0.87	-4.31%	-5.76%	-3.79%	-11.14%	-33.26%	-14.22%	-35.43%	-63.88%
LEH	24.20	-0.26	-1.06%	-6.24%	-25.05%	-37.14%	-61.09%	-50.26%	-61.17%	-69.69%
IBN	33.54	-2.03	-5.71%	-8.49%	-5.39%	-18.02%	-46.03%	-6.70%	-42.57%	-30.47%
UBS	21.90	-1.17	-5.07%	-11.23%	-8.41%	-26.78%	-52.17%	-23.18%	-51.67%	-64.52%

What I wrote in this space last week may have saved some traders from losing more money to Wall Street predators:

Although I continue to believe that the Financials (XLF) will drag the market down, apparently the Morgan Stanley broker-dealer analyst thinks otherwise, upgrading them Thursday from “under-perform” to “neutral”. (hah!)

This week XLF plunged -6.12% to 21.95. Eleven month ago, the XLF hit a high of $37.05. Morgan Stanley must be in desperate shape to be publishing what they did.

Do you recall what happened the day after the Morgan Stanley stuff hit the fan? I wrote: “UBS (UBS +3.2% W/W) gained +6.8% on Friday. Goldman Sachs (GS +5.2% W/W and +6.9% on Friday) was even stronger. Hmm, I don’t think that’s sustainable but I won’t give any cheap shot. It’s all trading. Citi (C +2.1% W/W) gained +3.0% on Friday. And Lehman (LEH) which gained +13.7% on Friday still ended up losing -20.1% W/W and I won’t quote their 52-week loss it’s so bad. So what happened Friday other than a helping hand from the Fed [and MS] and a bit of a short squeeze. I don’t think the problems have been resolved by a long shot.”

We’ll, this week the losers were UBS -11.2%, IBN -8.5%, LEH -6.2%, C -5.8%, MS -5.8% and DB -5.5%. The market will see much more blood on Wall Street before this Bear gets tired.

These bankers still have not come clean about the garbage that sits on their books at phony prices, and apparently their auditors are frightened enough to not take action. I can imagine the lawyers working 7x24 to cover everybody’s backside.

The problems, however, will simply be made to go away after a forthcoming round of mergers and acquisitions, following which management will take massive write-offs, and then massive pre-retirement bonuses before exiting stage right.

Honesty cannot be legislated. Neither will it be enforced by Self Regulatory Organizations like the one run by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B).

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIMM	144.56	-2.99	-2.03%	8.72%	10.01%	10.78%	27.13%	37.75%	35.12%	157.22%
AAPL	175.27	-5.63	-3.11%	1.68%	-5.59%	-1.01%	-10.04%	31.51%	-6.38%	44.20%
INTC	22.37	-0.48	-2.10%	-1.28%	-2.31%	-6.32%	-11.76%	2.85%	-15.30%	-6.56%
CTSH	34.97	-1.74	-4.74%	-2.18%	0.58%	12.81%	8.50%	20.54%	-0.40%	-8.65%
ORCL	22.10	-0.60	-2.64%	-2.34%	-1.60%	-0.94%	-1.73%	10.06%	0.00%	13.16%
SAP	51.70	-0.94	-1.79%	-2.82%	-3.45%	-1.95%	1.91%	4.87%	0.78%	2.38%
QCOM	48.53	-1.83	-3.63%	-2.92%	2.95%	5.80%	26.41%	26.81%	24.05%	12.68%
ADSK	36.88	-1.92	-4.95%	-4.31%	-8.96%	-6.44%	-23.55%	15.25%	-26.97%	-20.93%
ADBE	40.55	-1.45	-3.45%	-5.06%	-4.14%	-2.05%	-2.78%	17.71%	-3.84%	-1.98%
INFY	44.31	-2.05	-4.42%	-6.36%	-6.66%	0.23%	-0.27%	30.79%	-0.23%	-14.29%
CSCO	24.64	-0.88	-3.45%	-6.56%	-7.16%	-3.67%	-7.16%	-0.52%	-12.87%	-9.41%
SNDK	21.16	-2.28	-9.73%	-11.91%	-23.33%	-26.40%	-36.21%	2.97%	-41.37%	-54.45%

Tech (XLK -3.31% W/W closing at 23.65) was a weak performer again this week, mostly due to Friday’s loss of -2.47%.

The Semi-conductors (SMH -2.11% W/W) were also losers, also because of the loss on Friday of -1.83%. Friday was just a tough one all around for the die-hard Bulls.

SanDisk (SNDK -11.9%) actually lost less than the previous week (-13.0%). The put buyers and short sellers have been cleaning up—mostly from the pensions of Mom & Pop that are being managed by incompetent persons. Thanks to more superb results, Research was in Motion as RIMM gained +8.7%.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -4.49% W/W, closing at 24.49) had another tough week. A week ago, IYZ lost -4.26% and was the worst performer among the ten sector ETF’s.

I wrote at the time, “Verizon (VZ) -2.35% W/W and AT&T (T) -4.00% W/W were both hammered. That’s two major losing weeks in a row for T. Next week, I suspect VZ will be the relative under-performer.” I was wrong on that because VZ only lost -5.2% this week, while T dropped -6.1%.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -1.38% W/W), including a loss on Friday of -2.19%, was second best performer, after being #1 a week ago. The loss over three weeks is still serious.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.79	1.83	1.91	1.79
6 Month	2.16	2.20	2.22	1.84
2 Year	2.88	2.94	3.02	2.39
3 Year	2.88	2.93	3.00	2.38
5 Year	3.59	3.65	3.72	3.07
10 Year	4.17	4.21	4.25	3.80
30 Year	4.72	4.76	4.78	4.54

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.57	2.46	2.45	2.27
2yr AAA	2.45	2.44	2.33	2.24
2yr A	2.86	2.98	2.73	2.44
5yr AAA	3.29	3.26	3.14	2.82
5yr AA	3.32	3.26	3.13	2.91
5yr A	3.37	3.39	3.33	3.36
10yr AAA	3.90	3.85	3.79	3.58
10yr AA	3.89	3.84	3.80	3.52
10yr A	3.98	3.94	3.90	3.53
20yr AAA	4.70	4.66	4.65	4.32
20yr AA	4.69	4.63	4.63	4.39
20yr A	4.54	4.60	4.63	4.30

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.39	4.46	4.56	4.02
2yr A	4.60	4.67	4.85	3.94
5yr AAA	5.11	5.14	5.19	4.51
5yr AA	5.45	5.63	5.59	4.77
5yr A	5.74	5.81	5.71	4.79
10yr AAA	5.76	5.76	5.86	5.27
10yr AA	6.33	6.33	6.37	5.90
10yr A	6.04	6.12	6.14	5.42
20yr AAA	6.33	6.42	6.50	6.07
20yr AA	6.31	6.39	6.47	5.95
20yr A	6.59	6.67	6.75	6.33

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Bond prices managed to make some gains this week as part of a safe-haven move from equities to bonds.

A week ago I wrote: “At the close of the week, yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) rocketed higher by +65 basis points, +55bp, +34bp, and +16bp. That is mind-boggling, but I suppose the People like their “rebates”. These yields are now, respectively, at 3.02, 3.72, 4.25 (concerns here) and 4.78.”

This week, the same yields closed lower at 2.88, 3.59, 4.17 and 4.72.

The 20-year TLT closed up +1.06% to 89.81 and the TIP gained +0.77% to 105.60.

Yes, there was a point where rising bond yields would skim capital off the equity market in search of higher yields with much less risk. Despite inflation, traders are more concerned with cash flow.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	89.81	0.52	0.58%	1.06%	-1.05%	-1.71%	-4.84%	-7.58%	-3.46%	7.40%
IEF	86.61	0.41	0.48%	0.78%	-1.53%	-1.71%	-1.16%	-6.40%	-0.39%	7.84%
TIP	105.60	0.33	0.31%	0.77%	-1.05%	-2.29%	-0.98%	-4.37%	-0.13%	7.63%
NLY	16.25	-0.27	-1.63%	0.74%	-5.52%	-7.62%	-10.22%	-5.03%	-7.62%	13.80%
AGG	99.87	0.31	0.31%	0.67%	-1.10%	-1.66%	-1.76%	-3.44%	-1.30%	1.93%
SHY	82.44	0.15	0.18%	0.34%	-0.60%	-0.55%	0.12%	-2.09%	0.12%	3.22%
CFC	4.7300	-0.1000	-2.07%	-2.27%	-5.96%	0.85%	-47.44%	-18.17%	-46.07%	-87.30%
FNM	23.81	-1.19	-4.76%	-3.88%	-7.39%	-14.66%	-36.44%	-30.58%	-33.21%	-64.35%
DRE	22.80	-0.47	-2.02%	-4.12%	-7.32%	-10.97%	-11.01%	-0.44%	-12.54%	-36.88%
FRE	21.82	-1.83	-7.74%	-5.17%	-8.93%	-17.00%	-33.35%	-33.50%	-30.69%	-65.07%
EQR	40.35	-1.26	-3.03%	-5.30%	-5.17%	-3.33%	10.76%	-4.45%	12.02%	-11.90%
AVB	92.69	-3.73	-3.87%	-5.86%	-6.52%	-6.99%	1.47%	-11.11%	-1.05%	-24.61%

The big three of the mortgage suppliers, CFC, FNM and FRE, were hammered yet again this week, down -2.27%, -3.88% and -5.17% respectively to 4.73, 23.81, and 21.82.

To repeat, do you recall: “Not even with your ten-foot pole would I touch these stocks”? Aren’t you glad I stayed away from them at much, much higher prices?

Basically, these companies are toast, particularly so if the mortgage costs rise, and the US economy sinks to levels forecast by some analysts.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB gained +2.13% W/W to close at 455.38.

On Friday, there was a gain of +1.39%.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lost just -$0.11/bbl to close this week at 135.36.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 124.79 (amazing!!), and the 200d MA is 100.96!

A week ago I wrote, “Just remember there is a reversion to the mean price, often. The G-8 ministers and central bankers have said this weekend in Japan that they will try to make it happen. Let’s see if speculators decide to pay attention.” Apparently, not much.

But, give it time.

Here is the e-miNY Aug-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD gained +30.60 (+3.50%) to 903.70. The phones at the gold bug offices must be jammed.

A week earlier, $GOLD dropped -25.90/oz from 899.00 to 873.10. So, really, not much has happened over two weeks.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 895.31, down from 906.35 three weeks ago, and the 200d MA is 860.16.

“I think there will be a thorough test of the 50-day MA, and until trading can prove the support will hold I believe there is no reason to jump on the bullish bandwagon… I do think the cycle bottom for gold will be $800 or lower, which is to say I don’t think the 850 technical support will hold, but I also agree with traders who opine that long-term the purchases at this level will be very profitable. Trading is a function of your time horizon… My point here is that I am not going to make a decision to buy gold until the stars are aligned, which means I first have to see a spike higher in the $USD, which should shoot the gold price south, and then the start of a reversal. The next cycle high for gold, I believe, will set a record.”

There is no change in my strategy. I think the goldminer stocks are foretelling the future move down for gold. This index ($XAU), while up a bit this week (+1.79% to 178.60), has been hammered from a close of 188.10 four weeks ago.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.84/oz or +5.05%. A week ago the loss was -0.87/oz and -4.99%, so not much has gone on over two weeks. The close Friday was 17.40.

Long term, I think $SILVER will trade well above $21.44, which is the cycle high. As I say, “But not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.”

There was a loss of -0.42% on Friday.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.17, which is down yet again, and the 200d MA is 16.11.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT gained +25.00/oz (+1.22%) to close at 2068.90, but a week earlier there was a loss of -$41.40.

The 50-day MA is 2040.60 and the 200-day MA is 1743.15.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM has been on a two-week roll. The contracts gained +24.75/oz (+5.45%) to 479.20. A week ago, there was a gain of +20.65/oz.

As I said two weeks ago, right before the palladium rally, “I don’t see it as an indicator, like silver and platinum or the $USD/Euro.” And surprise, surprise, the rally did not occur in the other precious metals over those two weeks.

The 50-day MA is now 448.71 and the 200-day MA is 415.38.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +23.95 (+6.67%), closing at 383.05. I find that strange, but don’t have any thoughts to share.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 375.71 and the 200-day MA is 351.80.

Like most of these metals, the 50-day MA is on the decline. That’s not a good sign for the metal Bulls.

I still think the 200d MA is the new battleground for traders.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	19.61	0.34	1.76%	8.40%	-1.70%	-5.86%	-2.68%	-9.25%	19.65%	53.68%
LIHR	29.18	-0.15	-0.51%	6.57%	-0.34%	-8.04%	-12.03%	-7.57%	6.50%	11.76%
GG	40.90	0.53	1.31%	6.34%	-0.87%	-2.53%	11.63%	9.62%	31.77%	69.57%
AUY	14.72	0.24	1.66%	5.14%	-3.48%	-7.60%	6.13%	-7.54%	27.01%	16.64%
ABX	40.43	0.36	0.90%	4.88%	-3.90%	-5.00%	-12.15%	-3.74%	7.76%	37.85%
NEM	48.95	0.26	0.53%	4.13%	1.30%	-0.08%	-6.57%	6.48%	3.29%	22.59%
AEM	64.94	0.94	1.47%	2.66%	-6.74%	-9.05%	14.90%	-3.35%	34.31%	78.75%
GFI	11.15	0.27	2.48%	0.18%	-11.23%	-21.31%	-27.60%	-25.07%	-18.07%	-32.34%
HMY	11.10	-0.17	-1.51%	-0.09%	-7.50%	-15.20%	3.26%	-6.64%	16.60%	-23.45%
BVN	61.39	-0.38	-0.62%	-1.03%	-12.07%	-7.35%	0.84%	-8.96%	15.79%	72.40%
EGO	7.760	-0.320	-3.96%	-3.72%	-10.29%	-4.90%	25.16%	19.02%	42.65%	29.77%
AU	29.96	-0.74	-2.41%	-6.26%	-14.45%	-23.08%	-34.67%	-5.28%	-26.15%	-24.69%

The $XAU Goldminers index gained +3.14 (+1.79%) to 178.60, which is still quite a bit down from the level (187.87) of four weeks ago.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 180.46, and the 200d MA is 179.03, which means that the technical support is no longer there.

For the goldminers, the best of the performers was KGC (+8.4%), possibly on Russian money, LIHR (+6.6%), and GG (+6.3%), while there were some big losers too. AU dropped -6.3% W/W and -14.5% over two weeks. EGO lost -3.7% W/W and -10.3% over two weeks.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD lost -1.45% W/W to 73.05, which was some profit taking after “one of the strongest weekly moves we’ve seen for a while.”

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) gained +1.41% W/W, closing at 1.5604. It is still down over two weeks.

Last week following a huge loss in the Euro, I asked: “The question is how far will the ECB head stay with the program ie, a strong $USD policy? I’m suggesting not that long.”

Bingo.

The 50day MA is 1.5609 (and falling) and the 200day MA is 1.4925.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound gained +1.41% W/W, closing at 1.9759.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9687 (and falling) and 2.0009 (and falling), respectively.

“But there is no question that the Pound is in a Bear.”

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.85%, closing at 93.25. That follows “a very significant crushing of the Yen” (-3.00%) in the prior week.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 95.53 and the 200-day MA is 92.50. The current price is sitting just above the 200-day MA.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +1.27% W/W, closing at 98.46.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.14 and 100.05 respectively, which means the current price (98.46) is still bearish, ie, below both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

Except for the small gains made this week at Hong Kong, Singapore and Philippines, the international equities were all weak again. India was down -4.1% and the FTSE -3.1%, while the CAC dropped -3.7%.

UK FTSE down -3.1% to 5620.8 (-12.9% over 52-weeks)
German DAX down -2.8% to 6578.44 (-18.5% over 52-weeks)
Aussie All-Ords down -1.2% to 5411.8 (-15.7% over 52-weeks)
Shanghai Composite down from 2868.8 to 2831.7 (and almost -50% over 52-weeks)
HK Heng Seng up +0.7% to 22745.6 (but still down -18.8% over 52-weeks)
India’s BSE 30 down -4.1% to 14571.3 (-28.2% over 52-weeks)
Japan’s Nikkei 225 down -0.2% to 13942.1 (-8.9% over 52-weeks)

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform and get away from MT and TypeKey, which drives me nuts.

As I say, “the world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.” So this week, I am harping on the fact that international regulators will not easily accept the notion that the Fed is the top level global regulator of banks and brokers, which is a silly notion being promoted by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson while he still works at the White House.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWC	33.81	-0.58	-1.69%	-0.47%	-2.45%	-4.52%	4.35%	16.51%	8.02%	12.78%
TRF	60.57	-1.47	-2.37%	-0.95%	-2.79%	-7.84%	-17.58%	8.12%	-15.25%	-11.71%
EWG	31.17	-0.98	-3.05%	-1.39%	-3.74%	-7.92%	-11.92%	4.07%	-10.43%	-5.32%
EWA	26.63	-0.76	-2.77%	-1.70%	-4.96%	-10.16%	-7.47%	7.21%	-4.72%	-8.01%
EWU	21.33	-0.37	-1.71%	-1.80%	-3.83%	-8.10%	-10.68%	2.16%	-13.82%	-15.69%
EWZ	89.10	-2.90	-3.15%	-1.89%	-6.01%	-8.60%	10.07%	18.80%	12.47%	45.42%
EWS	12.54	-0.25	-1.95%	-1.95%	-4.27%	-7.25%	-7.04%	3.38%	-4.86%	-9.13%
EWQ	33.81	-0.75	-2.17%	-2.56%	-6.29%	-10.15%	-10.89%	1.87%	-8.77%	-11.31%
EWH	17.63	-0.46	-2.54%	-3.08%	-5.57%	-7.31%	-19.09%	2.80%	-18.57%	4.01%
EWJ	12.58	-0.42	-3.23%	-3.08%	-5.70%	-6.33%	-4.91%	4.40%	-4.84%	-13.24%
IFN	40.14	-2.02	-4.79%	-4.93%	-4.77%	-13.71%	-35.15%	-7.08%	-36.69%	-4.09%

All international ETF’s had a bad week. The worst was India (IFN), which dropped -4.93% to 40.14.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A week ago I wrote, “The DJIA (-3.4%), the S&P 500 (-2.8%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.7%) all had bad weeks, but particularly due to Friday’s sell-off.” The sell-off continued, particularly so for three of the past four days. This week, the DJIA (-3.8%), the S&P 500 (-3.1%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-2.0%) were big losers as capital is being removed from the market. Volume was up too, which is not a good sign in a sliding market if you are a perma-bull, like a mutual fund for instance.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	75.83	-1.12	-1.46%	0.95%	3.65%	-6.85%	-12.46%	1.38%	-13.03%	-21.08%
UTX	68.80	-0.02	-0.03%	0.35%	2.67%	-4.23%	-8.52%	-0.30%	-9.95%	-4.22%
MRK	35.13	-0.47	-1.32%	-1.13%	-6.30%	-9.99%	-38.77%	-18.98%	-39.99%	-28.68%
INTC	22.37	-0.48	-2.10%	-1.28%	-2.31%	-6.32%	-11.76%	2.85%	-15.30%	-6.56%
DD	46.23	-1.17	-2.47%	-2.06%	-0.19%	-4.54%	5.69%	1.72%	4.62%	-11.37%
IBM	122.74	-2.28	-1.82%	-2.70%	-1.76%	-1.57%	17.24%	3.73%	12.77%	15.79%
CVX	96.62	-0.24	-0.25%	-2.80%	-2.89%	-5.19%	3.38%	16.12%	4.96%	19.33%
MSFT	28.23	-0.70	-2.42%	-2.89%	2.69%	-0.84%	-19.85%	-3.26%	-20.52%	-5.93%
CAT	79.08	-0.40	-0.50%	-2.97%	-1.14%	-3.82%	11.96%	7.07%	10.59%	-2.83%
KO	53.66	0.30	0.56%	-3.18%	-3.84%	-7.91%	-12.16%	-12.09%	-13.84%	4.21%
JNJ	64.06	-0.56	-0.87%	-3.33%	-2.59%	-2.06%	-2.81%	-2.02%	-4.86%	3.26%
PFE	17.33	-0.44	-2.48%	-3.67%	-3.51%	-12.39%	-24.36%	-15.83%	-25.37%	-32.59%
HPQ	45.64	-0.95	-2.04%	-3.81%	-4.18%	1.65%	-8.37%	-1.85%	-10.79%	1.33%
XOM	84.91	-0.88	-1.03%	-3.90%	-2.17%	-8.22%	-9.20%	-0.11%	-7.84%	2.52%
MMM	73.02	-1.10	-1.48%	-4.07%	-2.46%	-4.72%	-11.72%	-6.36%	-13.58%	-16.15%
MCD	57.40	-1.19	-2.03%	-4.25%	0.79%	-1.93%	-1.20%	5.48%	-2.36%	11.83%
JPM	37.86	-0.79	-2.04%	-4.35%	-5.56%	-12.06%	-10.22%	-17.70%	-12.62%	-23.45%
HD	26.25	-0.93	-3.42%	-4.65%	-3.42%	-2.45%	0.54%	-6.45%	-0.08%	-34.42%
WMT	56.26	-1.43	-2.48%	-4.93%	-3.61%	0.37%	19.96%	5.69%	17.58%	15.79%
PG	63.16	-1.74	-2.68%	-4.95%	-3.38%	-3.75%	-12.65%	-8.95%	-13.70%	1.97%
VZ	35.38	-1.12	-3.07%	-5.22%	-7.45%	-5.58%	-18.12%	-2.05%	-19.26%	-16.83%
AA	37.34	-1.78	-4.55%	-5.37%	-4.79%	-8.48%	3.35%	7.67%	5.51%	-7.23%
C	19.30	-0.87	-4.31%	-5.76%	-3.79%	-11.14%	-33.26%	-14.22%	-35.43%	-63.88%
DIS	31.94	-0.95	-2.89%	-5.87%	-3.24%	-4.97%	0.31%	0.13%	-1.21%	-6.58%
GE	27.38	-0.53	-1.90%	-6.07%	-8.79%	-11.71%	-25.52%	-26.97%	-25.03%	-29.92%
AIG	32.10	-0.97	-2.93%	-6.09%	-5.39%	-15.10%	-42.98%	-28.70%	-43.43%	-55.43%
T	34.43	-0.72	-2.05%	-6.13%	-9.89%	-12.12%	-16.02%	-6.57%	-14.48%	-12.90%
AXP	41.18	-1.45	-3.40%	-7.79%	-7.77%	-11.17%	-19.32%	-10.44%	-19.30%	-33.63%
BAC	27.10	-1.04	-3.70%	-9.00%	-11.15%	-21.97%	-33.19%	-33.61%	-34.56%	-45.78%
GM	13.79	-1.00	-6.76%	-16.17%	-14.98%	-25.18%	-43.51%	-29.28%	-47.92%	-60.98%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on Boeing, one of America’s top lobbyists in Washington.

I like the company. Note that Boeing is in the Cara 100.

The company’s financial position is strengthening. Earnings are high and will go higher, as will the dividends. The cash flow is solid given that the production slots are 100% full and will be for a few years. What’s not to like?

The stock has come off its 52-week high last July 25 at $107.83, and from the lows on March 13 of $71.58 (where there was a Buy Alert) has crept back to its current close at $75.83. There is still a possibility the company will win the large USAF contract to build flying tankers.

I believe there will be lower prices ahead due mostly to the broad market decline and also to an event like the government still denying the USAF contract. But, this is a good company and if you buy the stock at the right time, your profits going forward will be large.

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30, and Cara 100]

(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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Wrap up:

As many of you know, my associate Jim Watt has taken control of my book “Lessons from the Trader Wizard,” which was just put up on Amazon.com. So far so good; we sold 8 books on Friday. I have yet to promote it, other than on these pages.

Jim is the founder and former CEO of QA Training Ltd, the world-renowned IT training company recognized for its highest quality standards and awards. Jim, an entrepreneur, is an experienced high-growth business manager who knows The Bahamas well, having lived in Nassau for the past six years, and having gotten out to many of the Family Islands in his boat and airplane.

I wrote about his house last August 27, and the place still has not sold, but he is willing to drop the price, recognizing that it is a buyer’s market. Here is what I wrote last year.

His house here in The Bahamas is a mere 10-bedroom, 10-bathroom, 10,000 square foot single level home on a large 61,000 s.f. lot in a prestige area. "Long Bay" was once the home of the Prime Minister Lynden Pindling, who was the PM who engineered independence for the country.

My friend lives there by himself, but would now like to sell it in order to take off for a long Bahamas Out Island journey via his plane and boat. He has people to see, places to go.

It’s a fine house as you’ll see via the photo’s.

Situated on the highest point of land in New Providence/Nassau, he likes to say that his friends throw all the beach parties and he does the hurricane parties. He has enough oil in storage to last out almost a year’s emergency.

I love the place, but let's be practical. It needs an owner who either has a large family (it sleeps 19) or uses it as a corporate retreat or business of some kind. It would be perfect for Bed N Breakfast, for weddings or for an exclusive spa. I also think a specialized offshore medical therapy center would be a good fit.

…For $1.8 million, somebody in the Cara Community will have an interest or know somebody who might have an interest.

As I say, there will be a price reduction in order for him to move on with his life as a newly married man. In March, Jim married Lyn, whom he met in Philippines at New Year’s after being introduced by her sister, who he’s known for a couple years. The classic line, “Do you have a sister?” really did work this time.

Also, Sir Lynden Pindling named the house Long Bay when he took the country to its present independent, sovereign status on July 10, 1973. The name represents a new beginning. It was the first body of water in The Bahamas that Christopher Columbus sailed into in 1492.

Columbus first sailed to the Canary Islands, which were owned by Castile, where he restocked the provisions and made repairs, and on September 6, he started what turned out to be a five-week voyage across the ocean.

Land was sighted at 2 a.m. on October 12, 1492, by a sailor named Rodrigo de Triana (also known as Juan Rodríguez Bermejo) aboard Pinta.[14] Columbus called the island (in what is now The Bahamas) San Salvador, although the natives called it Guanahani.

There is a lot of history here -- and, very good value. To replicate the house and landscaping on this size a lot would cost possibly twice what Jim will sell it for. Obviously, it’s a buyer’s market.

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Front view

Driveway

Aerial view

Front views

Kitchen

Kitchen view

Dining room

Lounge

Living room

Living room

Master Bedroom

Master bath

Bedroom 2

Bedroom 3

Bedroom 4

Bedroom 5

Bedroom 6

Cabana

Cabana Bedroom

Sauna

Pool

Pool

Backyard

Backyard

Cottage

BBQ

BBQ

Aerial view

Aerial view

I was hoping to finish this WIR by noon, but I got started a bit late. Anyway, hope you like it. It’s fun to do.

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