The bond market, however, is a different matter. The specter of inflation drove yields up and prices way down this week.

It appears to me now that the best timing exit out of bonds was a month or two ago—before all the central bankers started openly discussing something we already knew, which is that inflation is out of control, and interest rates will have to rise.

In any case, selling bonds is one half of the Trade of the Generation. Buying gold in the form of bullion or futures contracts is the other half. But, I am not quite ready to do the latter.

Market timer Ian Notley used to compare the market to an avocado. Avocado lovers know exactly what this means.

I suppose the same could be said about grilling fish. With an avocado, timing is best within hours, but standing over a bbq, I like to say “I nailed it; ten seconds or less to perfection!” Of course, perfection to me may be something quite different to the next person.

Speaking of food (or oil), the world is in crisis. The G-8 ministers say they are alarmed. They say they are going to do something about it. We shall see.

Soaring costs and a slowing global economy amounts to Stagflation, something I have warned about. I have also said that stagflation destroys stock and bond prices together. This is the process that is underway in the market presently.

No, it’s not a good time to be long the market, which is why traders have to learn how to be long or short.

It is a good time, however, to close shop and go fishing—something I plan to do in a few minutes. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Tomorrow we get back at the market. It ought to be an interesting week ahead. Painful for the Bulls, I think.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US Pending Home Sales data for April. Econoday reported: “The pending home sales index really snapped back in April, jumping 6.3 percent month-on-month and cutting the year-on-year decline to 13.1 percent to end five months of 20 percent declines. The dollar firmed in immediate reaction to the data which points, at least tentatively, to slowing rates of decline for home sales. Builders will post their monthly index next week.”

US International Trade data for April. Econoday reported: “The US trade balance in April widened sharply primarily due to a run up in oil prices. The overall U.S. trade gap widened to $60.9 billion from a revised $56.5 billion deficit in March and was marginally worse than the consensus forecast for a $59.5 billion deficit. In April, exports rebounded 3.3 percent but imports surged 4.5 percent…Today's report confirms recent trends for higher imported inflation, a slowing in imports outside of oil, and a resumption of exports…The gain in exports for April was broad-based but led by capital goods excluding autos. (A) major part of this was aircraft.”

US Treasury Budget. Econoday reported: “Tax stimulus checks added $48 billion to May's $165.9 billion Treasury deficit, an unwanted record and dwarfing last May's $67.7 billion deficit.” This is called having cake but not eating it too.

US Import and Export Price Report for May. Econoday reported: “Import/export prices have never shown this much pressure in more than 20 years of available data, at year-on-year rates of 17.8 percent for imports in May and 8.0 percent for exports. Month-on-month, import prices have posted several rare 2 and 3 percent jumps over the past half year including a 2.3 percent jump in May. Prices of non-petroleum imports rose 0.5 percent in the month, down from 1.3 and 1.2 percent spikes in prior months but are now at a record year-on-year pace of 6.6 percent.” Yes, the global inflation problem is now recognized and must be dealt with.

US Retail Sales Report for May. Econoday reported: “Consumers are a lot more willing to spend than consumer attitude surveys suggest as retail sales jumped in May - and it was not all higher gasoline prices.” I suppose $48 billion in so-called rebate checks will, for the most part, find its way to a cash register. The problem is that the goods and services acquired in return are not as valuable as they were just a few months ago.

US Consumer Price Inflation for May. Econoday reported: “The May CPI spurted 0.6 percent based on oil-related price increases, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before. The latest number was above the market forecast for a 0.5 percent gain. The core rate also firmed but not as much with a 0.2 percent boost, after a 0.1 percent uptick in April.” This report blames the majority of the problems on high energy costs. But, at times like this, those who have, hoard. Is that not a major problem? How long will hoarding, which is in effect a short squeeze, forcing prices of essential food and fuel stuff to move higher, be allowed to happen before the have-nots start to riot, not just in a few countries, but across the globe?

Weekly International Economic Report .

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Pending Home Sales data for April.

US Housing Starts for May.

US Producer Price Index for May. The Consensus is for a growth in PPI M/M of an astounding +1.0%.

US Industrial Production Report for May.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was mixed as a late session rally on Friday lifted the indexes and the sector components to small gains on the week.

There were 6 of 10 sectors that lifted in price, but one (XLI) moved up only +0.03%. There were 20 of 30 Dow components that were up on the week, thanks again to Friday afternoon.

The DJIA index was up +0.79% W/W and -7.2% over the past year. The S&P 500 lost -0.05% W/W, and -7.4% over the past year.

The leaders this week were Microsoft (MSFT +5.75) and McDonalds (MCD +5.27%).

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Tech ($BKX), including Semi-conductors ($SMH), were principal losers on the week, along with Telecom. The NASAQ Composite dropped -0.81% W/W despite a gain on Friday of +2.1%.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 6 sectors up and 4 down. On Friday the scoreboard read all 10 sectors up as bids showed up late in the session.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	41.29	0.37	0.90%	1.85%	-0.05%	2.00%	-1.90%	7.89%	-6.16%	3.41%
XLY	31.72	0.84	2.72%	1.47%	-1.83%	-5.79%	-1.49%	3.83%	-6.24%	-19.53%
XLB	44.54	1.06	2.44%	0.84%	0.07%	-1.79%	7.85%	7.77%	4.21%	10.00%
XLE	86.60	1.02	1.19%	0.67%	0.70%	0.91%	8.93%	13.90%	11.47%	25.60%
XLP	28.12	0.07	0.25%	0.61%	-1.30%	-1.33%	-0.95%	2.63%	-4.29%	2.03%
XLF	23.38	0.50	2.19%	0.21%	-5.57%	-11.77%	-17.56%	-5.38%	-22.09%	-37.79%
XLI	37.02	0.42	1.15%	0.03%	-4.69%	-5.99%	-3.87%	0.98%	-7.22%	-5.22%
SPY	136.15	1.69	1.26%	-0.10%	-2.99%	-4.48%	-6.06%	3.42%	-8.66%	-10.36%
IYH	62.86	0.72	1.16%	-1.02%	-2.86%	-1.26%	-10.33%	0.21%	-13.15%	-11.20%
XLK	24.46	0.26	1.07%	-1.05%	-3.51%	-3.81%	-6.36%	10.03%	-9.41%	-3.74%
SMH	31.77	1.02	3.32%	-1.06%	-2.70%	-4.16%	1.31%	8.39%	-4.22%	-14.37%
IYZ	25.64	0.40	1.58%	-4.26%	-4.65%	-4.22%	-12.10%	13.10%	-13.79%	-24.32%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

I use XLK for the Tech sector for a total of ten (10) sectors, but also include Semiconductors (SMH) because it is my bellwether on the economy. I added SPY to see where each sector stands relative the broad market.

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	88.36	1.30	1.49%	1.81%	-0.45%	-3.22%	-5.51%	1.50%	-4.70%	6.01%
RIG	146.00	1.52	1.05%	1.74%	-2.79%	-6.05%	0.03%	4.81%	5.45%	45.30%
CVX	99.40	1.34	1.37%	-0.10%	0.25%	0.92%	6.36%	14.20%	6.79%	22.49%
PBR	67.94	1.43	2.15%	-0.19%	-3.63%	-0.48%	-42.82%	-39.27%	-38.57%	17.99%
ECA	91.06	1.42	1.58%	-1.66%	0.76%	-0.82%	30.81%	15.40%	34.72%	44.47%
CEO	167.70	-1.91	-1.13%	-2.09%	-5.41%	-13.42%	0.17%	1.48%	3.17%	61.25%
SLB	99.69	0.87	0.88%	-2.21%	-1.42%	-3.63%	-0.88%	17.06%	3.18%	21.63%
STO	37.31	-0.42	-1.11%	-2.91%	-4.70%	-6.42%	19.43%	20.35%	22.49%	35.67%
PTR	129.99	-0.49	-0.38%	-4.40%	-8.81%	-10.58%	-25.14%	-2.37%	-30.69%	-4.24%
IMO	56.77	-0.03	-0.05%	-4.67%	-2.20%	-0.21%	3.37%	1.39%	9.96%	22.01%
TOT	80.44	-0.63	-0.78%	-4.77%	-7.82%	-5.68%	-3.41%	6.04%	-1.23%	7.17%
SU	63.93	-0.65	-1.01%	-5.79%	-6.47%	-1.24%	15.96%	18.08%	24.04%	46.97%

Crude Oil ($WTIC -$3.07/bbl -2.22% W/W) pulled back from the prior week’s all-time record close of 138.54 to close Friday at 135.47. Presently there is a war of hype underway between the hedge funds attributing the rally to “Peak Oil” and others who opine that the hedge funds are hoarding oil to squeeze the shorts. Some heads of government like Australia, for instance, opine that the issue is mostly the fault of OPEC.

This week, XLE gained +0.67% to close at 86.60, thanks largely to Friday’s gain of +1.19%.

Except for Big Oil in the US being up, ie, XOM +1.81% (+1.49% on Fri.), most oil stocks suffered a bad week.

A week ago in this space, I had opined “…which makes me believe that if Oil prices hold on Monday morning, then the oil stocks will rally a tad before getting hammered again. Ultimately, oil will be priced off the current supply and demand, not peak oil concepts or industry Talking Heads like Boone Pickens… If the economy stays weak, oil prices will likely drop from here. As I say, in time they will have to because critically important industries like the airlines cannot make profits when the price of oil is over $100, or anywhere close, even when they cut capacity… Suffice to say, this is a serious problem and oil prices will have to come down or we’ll all have to move to a small island. :-)”

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DOW	39.05	0.60	1.56%	0.70%	-3.34%	-8.12%	0.77%	4.33%	-12.03%	-13.20%
AA	39.46	1.72	4.56%	0.61%	-2.78%	-7.67%	9.22%	2.57%	8.62%	-2.52%
RTP	462.05	17.60	3.96%	-1.22%	-4.34%	-15.45%	10.09%	3.55%	5.49%	56.53%
NUE	77.06	3.14	4.25%	-1.46%	3.02%	-5.38%	32.93%	6.33%	26.83%	25.34%
BHP	82.28	3.06	3.86%	-1.84%	-2.44%	-11.92%	16.86%	17.53%	10.68%	44.35%
TS	62.57	0.02	0.03%	-3.22%	2.07%	8.10%	40.96%	25.42%	36.23%	32.48%
TCK	46.81	0.34	0.73%	-3.60%	-5.53%	-6.72%	29.17%	7.61%	31.38%	4.32%
GGB	48.58	0.20	0.41%	-3.88%	-2.76%	5.63%	69.27%	45.71%	72.58%	102.50%
PKX	132.56	0.90	0.68%	-4.29%	-2.99%	-7.88%	-9.49%	9.74%	-19.27%	6.82%
MT	95.28	2.12	2.28%	-7.50%	-4.08%	-5.27%	24.71%	21.76%	29.04%	50.78%
RIO	34.57	0.05	0.14%	-7.67%	-13.10%	-18.02%	5.69%	1.14%	2.92%	-22.78%
VCP	31.61	-0.77	-2.38%	-7.98%	-6.09%	-4.65%	6.43%	7.92%	-2.01%	43.29%

Basic Materials (XLB +0.84% closing at 44.54) was a winner this week thanks to Friday’s huge gain of +2.44%.

Dow Chemicals (DOW +0.70%) was a small winner (on the rebound) and so was Alcoa (AA +0.61%), but the rest of my list suffered. VCP -8.0%, RIO -7.7% and MT -7.5% were the worst hit by profit-taking.

Friday was a trap, I feel. Next week, there will be more losses in Basic Materials and Energy stocks as well. The G-8 ministers and central bankers are on the warpath. If commercial and investment banks want to continue to feed at the public trough, they had better march to the G-8 drummers. Ergo: don’t be long the commodity price beneficiaries for a while. That could be painful.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	56.49	0.87	1.56%	4.59%	-5.25%	-9.51%	-5.69%	-0.37%	-6.86%	-1.84%
BA	75.12	1.00	1.35%	2.68%	-9.24%	-12.19%	-13.28%	1.27%	-15.17%	-23.71%
FLR	186.18	8.51	4.79%	2.39%	-0.19%	-2.85%	28.93%	32.39%	26.26%	75.34%
UTX	68.56	0.64	0.94%	2.31%	-3.49%	-7.71%	-8.84%	0.07%	-11.66%	-3.07%
CAT	81.50	1.00	1.24%	1.89%	-1.38%	-2.40%	15.39%	7.70%	9.81%	1.96%
MMM	76.12	0.57	0.75%	1.68%	-1.86%	-2.23%	-7.97%	-3.74%	-12.43%	-12.70%
UPS	68.31	0.02	0.03%	-0.41%	-3.82%	-4.27%	-1.23%	-3.42%	-7.59%	-5.31%
TXT	58.18	0.76	1.32%	-1.31%	-6.99%	-9.43%	-12.92%	7.38%	-18.01%	8.87%
GE	29.15	0.10	0.34%	-2.90%	-5.11%	-9.95%	-20.70%	-14.89%	-22.43%	-22.56%
FDX	85.98	-1.46	-1.67%	-3.24%	-6.25%	-5.37%	-0.21%	-1.25%	-11.53%	-20.99%
ERJ	31.55	0.10	0.32%	-5.17%	-15.91%	-24.59%	-30.09%	-24.50%	-32.61%	-36.86%
ABB	29.94	0.27	0.91%	-5.61%	-7.82%	-7.71%	4.54%	14.67%	5.53%	38.16%

The Industrials (XLI +0.03% W/W), which is a gain of a penny, closed at 37.01, thanks to Friday’s gain of +1.15%.

Fedex (FDX -3.24%) gave back the gain from a week ago. GE hit a 52-week low late in the week, but gained a small amount (+0.34% on Friday to close at 29.15, down -2.90% W/W. There is no leadership here anymore it appears.

I could also say that GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt, who sits on the Board of Directors o the New York Fed is probably aware of the stance this central banker has taken. He might even discover the truth from his colleague director, the head of Lehman Brothers. I’d love to be a fly on the wall.

Honeywell (HON +4.6%) was the leader and ABB (ABB) -5.6% was hammered. Next week, HON may dance to a different tune. The stock has support at $54. The low this week was 54.01. It then bounced to 57 after a rally on Thursday and Friday. But the 200day MA is about 58 and dropping, so there will be resistance ahead.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DIS	33.93	0.69	2.08%	2.79%	0.98%	-3.03%	6.56%	8.30%	3.57%	1.59%
JCP	39.47	1.29	3.38%	2.33%	-1.91%	-14.79%	-5.23%	-0.53%	-9.45%	-48.67%
TGT	53.54	1.33	2.55%	1.94%	0.34%	-2.83%	8.14%	5.89%	1.98%	-15.65%
NKE	68.99	2.21	3.31%	1.56%	0.91%	1.43%	9.02%	13.04%	6.20%	29.00%
TM	102.71	1.90	1.88%	0.07%	0.65%	-1.35%	-3.52%	-2.18%	-6.99%	-17.04%
WHR	68.52	2.38	3.60%	-0.32%	-7.00%	-9.71%	-14.22%	-19.37%	-17.88%	-38.90%
CCL	36.99	0.34	0.93%	-0.64%	-7.66%	-8.35%	-15.28%	-5.71%	-17.41%	-25.84%
BBBY	30.03	0.94	3.23%	-1.44%	-5.74%	-13.18%	5.89%	5.18%	-1.09%	-20.26%
BC	13.15	0.07	0.54%	-1.65%	-4.01%	-21.54%	-22.28%	-16.88%	-29.87%	-61.36%
BDK	60.27	0.59	0.99%	-2.96%	-6.85%	-11.86%	-13.81%	-8.99%	-24.78%	-32.54%
EBAY	28.38	0.30	1.07%	-3.01%	-5.43%	-11.12%	-12.65%	6.29%	-16.75%	-9.85%
GOL	12.50	0.28	2.29%	-11.41%	-18.62%	-24.33%	-47.89%	-17.76%	-48.98%	-60.94%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY +1.47% closing at 31.72) enjoyed a gain of +2.72% on Friday, which made the week for the Bulls. But, remember, the loss on the previous Friday was -3.93%.

Disney (DIS +2.8%) was the leader. JC Penny (JCP +2.3%) was also strong, but then whenever Financials (XLF +0.21% W/W but +2.19% on Fri.) and Goldman Sachs (GS +5.2% W/W and +6.9% on Fri.) are strong, so too is JCP. I figure that Goldman traders must all have accounts there.

The Cara 100 losers were GOL Airlines (-11.4% W/W after losing -8.1% the previous week) and Ebay (EBAY -3.0%).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BUD	61.12	-0.28	-0.46%	6.70%	6.37%	17.97%	18.38%	31.24%	14.26%	13.42%
ABV	68.82	-1.18	-1.69%	3.74%	0.22%	-12.57%	-5.05%	-13.92%	-7.24%	-3.83%
PEP	67.54	-0.41	-0.60%	3.08%	-1.11%	-0.78%	-10.29%	-2.46%	-14.17%	1.73%
SBUX	18.17	0.35	1.96%	2.83%	-0.11%	13.07%	-5.90%	3.06%	-15.49%	-34.57%
WAG	36.26	0.81	2.28%	2.05%	0.67%	-0.82%	-2.89%	-0.74%	-1.06%	-17.59%
PDA	58.76	-0.92	-1.54%	1.66%	-10.56%	-1.33%	22.09%	16.36%	14.45%	68.61%
PG	66.45	-0.01	-0.02%	1.65%	0.61%	0.14%	-8.10%	-1.35%	-10.69%	6.54%
WMT	59.18	0.07	0.12%	1.39%	2.49%	3.61%	26.18%	16.96%	22.45%	19.56%
KR	27.60	0.09	0.33%	1.10%	-0.14%	2.26%	7.52%	10.40%	5.30%	-8.12%
KO	55.42	-1.72	-3.01%	-0.68%	-3.21%	-2.79%	-9.28%	-5.96%	-13.53%	7.90%
DEO	76.27	1.25	1.67%	-1.54%	-2.99%	-4.47%	-10.33%	-7.60%	-11.84%	-9.64%
WFMI	27.16	0.42	1.57%	-4.70%	-6.34%	-6.73%	-31.69%	-14.81%	-34.55%	-30.36%

Consumer Staples (XLP +0.61% W/W) closed at 28.12.

The InBev (ABV +3.7%) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD +6.4%) were strong on the potential marriage between Stella and Bud. Amazing how most of this action started a few years ago with the takeover of Canada’s Labatts.

As for me, I like the occasional Becks, Guinness and Kalik.

Whole Foods Market (WFMI -4.7%) had a tough week.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MDT	51.54	0.71	1.40%	2.32%	1.72%	9.50%	4.12%	7.29%	2.87%	-0.75%
JNJ	66.27	0.58	0.88%	0.78%	-0.70%	-0.61%	0.55%	5.51%	-2.36%	6.58%
PFE	17.99	0.26	1.47%	0.17%	-7.08%	-10.41%	-21.48%	-15.18%	-23.90%	-31.73%
DNA	73.77	-0.03	-0.04%	0.11%	4.09%	7.18%	9.45%	-9.41%	5.78%	-3.42%
AMGN	43.97	0.75	1.74%	-0.61%	-0.14%	4.57%	-5.64%	-6.80%	-11.03%	-24.37%
GSK	42.04	0.44	1.06%	-0.69%	-5.59%	-4.43%	-16.20%	1.45%	-22.05%	-19.73%
WLP	53.81	1.35	2.57%	-2.94%	-3.60%	7.88%	-38.15%	13.38%	-37.89%	-33.87%
BMY	20.12	0.45	2.29%	-3.64%	-11.72%	-8.42%	-23.00%	-6.03%	-30.16%	-32.35%
AET	44.50	-0.06	-0.13%	-4.26%	-5.64%	3.95%	-21.43%	-0.40%	-23.21%	-13.49%
NVS	50.09	-0.26	-0.52%	-4.41%	-4.32%	-2.15%	-8.21%	3.28%	-10.95%	-8.59%
UNH	30.74	-0.27	-0.87%	-6.93%	-10.14%	-3.03%	-45.76%	-19.70%	-46.10%	-42.12%
NVO	61.46	-1.27	-2.02%	-8.72%	-5.88%	-9.20%	-3.67%	-10.53%	-52.26%	-40.01%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) lost -1.02% W/W to close at 62.86. The gain on Friday was +1.16%.

Medtronic (MDT +2.3%) was a leader but Novo Nordisk (NVO -8.7%) and United Health (UNH -6.9%) were not. There actually were many losers on my healthcare list this week.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	178.29	11.54	6.92%	5.22%	0.75%	-5.48%	-14.12%	7.77%	-14.48%	-23.69%
IBN	36.65	1.37	3.88%	3.39%	-2.86%	-18.05%	-41.03%	-13.23%	-42.45%	-21.18%
UBS	24.67	1.58	6.84%	3.18%	4.27%	-20.68%	-46.12%	-18.55%	-48.85%	-59.79%
C	20.48	0.59	2.97%	2.09%	-6.44%	-13.70%	-29.18%	-2.80%	-33.96%	-61.85%
MS	41.04	2.66	6.93%	0.56%	-7.21%	-13.98%	-19.45%	-1.35%	-18.25%	-53.98%
JPM	39.58	1.57	4.13%	-1.27%	-7.95%	-15.82%	-6.14%	3.86%	-13.51%	-21.30%
CS	48.28	1.65	3.54%	-1.45%	-5.13%	-11.98%	-19.10%	-5.05%	-21.73%	-33.27%
HBC	80.44	0.02	0.02%	-2.33%	-4.48%	-7.60%	-2.43%	1.06%	-6.01%	-12.97%
BBD	22.06	0.13	0.59%	-2.56%	-8.12%	-4.38%	-27.51%	-28.79%	-31.43%	-9.29%
MER	38.00	1.72	4.74%	-2.61%	-13.48%	-23.95%	-27.98%	-17.86%	-34.29%	-57.68%
DB	96.35	1.32	1.39%	-3.72%	-9.51%	-18.77%	-25.34%	-14.23%	-26.71%	-33.59%
LEH	25.81	3.11	13.70%	-20.07%	-29.88%	-42.35%	-58.50%	-43.88%	-57.94%	-66.86%

Although I continue to believe that the Financials (XLF) will drag the market down, apparently the Morgan Stanley broker-dealer analyst thinks otherwise, upgrading them Thursday from “under-perform” to “neutral”. (hah!)

Anyway, this week XLF gained +0.21% owing to the end of the week gain, including Friday’s rally of +2.19%. That doesn’t quite make up for the previous week’s loss of -5.78%.

UBS (UBS +3.2% W/W) gained +6.8% on Friday. Goldman Sachs (GS +5.2% W/W and +6.9% on Friday) was even stronger.

Hmm, I don’t think that’s sustainable but I won’t give any cheap shot. It’s all trading.

Citi (C +2.1% W/W) gained +3.0% on Friday. And Lehman (LEH) which gained +13.7% on Friday still ended up losing -20.1% W/W and I won’t quote their 52-week loss it’s so bad.

So what happened Friday other than a helping hand from the Fed and a bit of a short squeeze. I don’t think the problems have been resolved by a long shot.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	49.99	1.01	2.06%	6.05%	2.99%	11.09%	30.22%	24.20%	25.41%	17.35%
CTSH	35.75	1.18	3.41%	2.82%	1.33%	13.03%	10.92%	24.61%	6.59%	-9.42%
RIMM	132.96	3.37	2.60%	1.18%	-4.26%	-5.51%	16.93%	25.85%	27.48%	133.55%
ADBE	42.71	1.72	4.20%	0.97%	-3.06%	1.69%	2.40%	28.26%	-2.69%	-3.17%
ORCL	22.63	0.77	3.52%	0.76%	-0.92%	3.48%	0.62%	14.06%	4.72%	17.25%
INFY	47.32	0.89	1.92%	-0.32%	-3.64%	1.59%	6.50%	35.47%	10.30%	-8.65%
CSCO	26.37	0.41	1.58%	-0.64%	-1.31%	-0.49%	-0.64%	5.69%	-9.26%	-0.60%
SAP	53.20	0.40	0.76%	-0.65%	-2.56%	4.83%	4.87%	5.98%	1.16%	9.62%
INTC	22.66	0.61	2.77%	-1.05%	-2.24%	-9.25%	-10.61%	6.48%	-16.57%	-0.04%
ADSK	38.54	0.46	1.21%	-4.86%	-6.37%	-5.86%	-20.11%	11.61%	-23.43%	-18.07%
AAPL	172.37	-0.89	-0.51%	-7.15%	-8.68%	-9.15%	-11.53%	34.73%	-10.14%	46.70%
SNDK	24.02	0.34	1.44%	-12.97%	-15.15%	-27.43%	-27.59%	4.43%	-35.84%	-45.63%

Tech (XLK -1.05% W/W closing at 24.46) was a weak performer again this week, despite Friday’s gain of +1.07%.

The Semi-conductors (SMH -1.06% W/W) were also losers, but there was a monster gain of +3.32% on Friday.

SanDisk (SNDK -13.0%) and Apple (AAPL -7.2%) were really hammered, but, thanks to China calling for Qualcomm, the QCOM gained +6.1%.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -4.26% W/W, closing at 25.64) was the worst performer this week among the ten sector ETF’s.

Verizon (VZ) -2.35% W/W and AT&T (T) -4.00% W/W were both hammered. That’s two major losing weeks in a row for T. Next week, I suspect VZ will be the relative under-performer.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU +1.85% W/W), including a gain of +0.90% on Friday, was the best performer, but the loss of two weeks is still serious.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.91	1.92	1.78	1.82
6 Month	2.22	2.21	1.91	1.89
2 Year	3.02	3.03	2.37	2.53
3 Year	3.00	3.01	2.34	2.54
5 Year	3.72	3.69	3.17	3.22
10 Year	4.25	4.21	3.91	3.92
30 Year	4.78	4.76	4.62	4.63

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.45	2.41	2.34	2.29
2yr AAA	2.33	2.31	2.34	2.27
2yr A	2.73	2.62	2.65	2.57
5yr AAA	3.14	3.03	2.98	2.87
5yr AA	3.13	3.07	2.98	2.94
5yr A	3.33	3.33	3.19	3.36
10yr AAA	3.79	3.73	3.66	3.60
10yr AA	3.80	3.71	3.66	3.64
10yr A	3.90	3.88	3.69	3.75
20yr AAA	4.65	4.51	4.40	4.52
20yr AA	4.63	4.51	4.27	4.33
20yr A	4.63	4.59	4.46	4.44

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.56	4.53	3.89	4.22
2yr A	4.85	4.89	4.19	3.94
5yr AAA	5.19	5.13	4.58	4.77
5yr AA	5.59	5.62	4.99	4.79
5yr A	5.71	5.64	5.12	5.10
10yr AAA	5.86	5.80	5.55	5.13
10yr AA	6.37	6.34	6.12	6.00
10yr A	6.14	6.09	5.78	5.67
20yr AAA	6.50	6.44	6.23	6.14
20yr AA	6.47	6.42	6.20	6.13
20yr A	6.75	6.70	6.48	6.39

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Bond prices were hammered down this week. Inflation is now the talk of central bankers worldwide. Maybe governments ought to stop running such huge Treasury deficits. The -$10 billion deficit this past month for the US was remarkable, enhanced of course by the so-called tax rebate program.

At the close of the week, yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) rocketed higher by +65 basis points, +55bp, +34bp, and +16bp. That is mind-boggling, but I suppose the People like their “rebates”.

These yields are now, respectively, at 3.02, 3.72, 4.25 (concerns here) and 4.78.

Last week, I used incorrect data in this space (again), which happens when I try to do a 10-hour review in 7 hours.

The 20-year TLT closed down -2.08% to 88.87 and the TIP lost -1.81% to 104.79.

The turn in the bond market can be traced to the Bear Stearns debacle in mid-March. Traders smarter than I were quick to realize that the Fed would open the liquidity floodgates, which would be accompanied by higher rates and tighter borrowing requirements, which would move yields higher and bond prices down. In fact, they spiked down at that point.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EQR	42.61	0.96	2.30%	0.14%	0.76%	-3.71%	16.96%	10.27%	18.46%	-11.16%
AVB	98.46	2.19	2.27%	-0.70%	-2.71%	-6.44%	7.78%	2.57%	2.31%	-23.65%
SHY	82.16	0.09	0.11%	-0.94%	-0.90%	-1.00%	-0.22%	-2.27%	0.10%	3.09%
AGG	99.20	-0.33	-0.33%	-1.76%	-1.76%	-2.90%	-2.41%	-2.78%	-1.45%	1.90%
TIP	104.79	-0.01	-0.01%	-1.81%	-1.86%	-2.72%	-1.73%	-5.41%	0.31%	7.27%
TLT	88.87	-0.19	-0.21%	-2.08%	-1.56%	-3.63%	-5.84%	-5.30%	-2.37%	6.80%
IEF	85.94	-0.20	-0.23%	-2.30%	-1.57%	-3.00%	-1.93%	-5.32%	-0.03%	7.69%
DRE	23.78	0.44	1.89%	-3.33%	-7.40%	-10.09%	-7.18%	6.88%	-9.17%	-37.49%
FNM	24.77	-0.12	-0.48%	-3.66%	-8.33%	-18.06%	-33.88%	7.84%	-28.74%	-64.03%
CFC	4.8400	0.0500	1.04%	-3.78%	-7.98%	-2.62%	-46.22%	1.47%	-51.98%	-87.23%
FRE	23.01	0.52	2.31%	-3.96%	-9.48%	-15.62%	-29.72%	8.03%	-29.11%	-65.33%
NLY	16.13	0.15	0.94%	-6.22%	-9.43%	-5.89%	-10.88%	4.88%	-9.13%	15.38%

The big three of the mortgage suppliers, CFC, FNM and FRE, were hammered again this week, down -3.78%, -3.66% and -3.96% respectively to 4.84, 24.77, and 23.01.

Do you recall: “Not even with your ten-foot pole would I touch these stocks”? Aren’t you glad I stayed away from them at much, much higher prices?

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

Despite a gain in the $USD (+2.42% W/W) and a pullback in the price of oil (-2.2%) and gold (-2.9%), the $CRB still gained +0.99% W/W to close at 445.87.

Even Friday, when Crude Oil dropped -1.39%, the $CRB gained +0.14%.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lost -$3.07/bbl to close this week down -2.22% from 138.54 to 135.47. But it is still higher than the price of 127.35 two weeks ago.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 122.17 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 99.46.

Just remember there is a reversion to the mean price, often. The G-8 ministers and central bankers have said this weekend in Japan that they will try to make it happen. Let’s see if speculators decide to pay attention.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Two weeks ago, $GOLD lost -34.30/oz, and then one week ago gained “amid blaring trumpets and fanfare from the gold bugs”, just $7.50. This week $GOLD dropped -25.90/oz from 899.00 to 873.10.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 898.36, down from 906.35 two weeks ago, and the 200d MA is 855.00.

I think there will be a thorough test of the 50-day MA, and until trading can prove the support will hold I believe there is no reason to jump on the bullish bandwagon.

Three weeks ago I wrote in this space, “The trend is clearly up. But here is where I think that the gold-bugs are going to get trapped. I’m watching the $USD for timing of the next trade.”

Ergo, two weeks ago, “the $USD started rallying, and gold came under pressure”.

One week ago, the $USD was up from Monday through Thursday and then the Israeli PM spoke about stopping Iran “at any cost”. Ergo, the price of gold jumped, but I warned this was likely a one-off event, and that central bankers seem intent on rallying the $USD.

I do think the cycle bottom for gold will be $800 or lower, which is to say I don’t think the 850 technical support will hold, but I also agree with traders who opine that long-term the purchases at this level will be very profitable.

Trading is a function of your time horizon.

My point here is that I am not going to make a decision to buy gold until the stars are aligned, which means I first have to see a spike higher in the $USD, which should shoot the gold price south, and then the start of a reversal.

The next cycle high for gold, I believe, will set a record.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -0.87/oz or -4.99% to close at 16.56. A week ago it gained +0.57/oz or +3.35% to close at 17.43, and the “silver crazies” were abuzz.

I’m not the enemy. Basically, I’m just trading the $USD. Longer term, I think $SILVER will trade well above $21.44, which is the cycle high.

As I say, “But not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.” I will add, this weekend, that the G-8 ministers and central bankers are also on the anti-inflation bandwagon. For now at least.

There was a gain of +0.45% on Friday.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.23, which is down again, and the 200d MA is 15.99.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT lost -$41.40 (not quite the prior week’s gain of +69.10/oz) to close at 2043.90/oz.

The 50-day MA is 2037.36 and the 200-day MA is 1723.10.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM may have lost -5.20/oz a week ago, but this week there was a gain of +20.65/oz (+4.76%) to 454.45.

As I said a week ago, “I don’t see it as an indicator, like silver and platinum or the $USD/Euro.”

The 50-day MA is now 447.74 and the 200-day MA is 412.02.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER lost -3.20 (-0.88%), closing at 359.10.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 377.87 and the 200-day MA is 350.78.

Like most of these metals, the 50-day MA is on the decline. That’s not a good sign for the metal Bulls.

I now think the 200d MA is the new battleground for traders.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NEM	47.01	0.36	0.77%	-2.71%	-1.09%	0.60%	-10.27%	-12.59%	-3.71%	18.35%
LIHR	27.38	0.88	3.32%	-6.49%	-4.60%	-6.14%	-17.46%	-29.81%	-14.09%	4.78%
GG	38.46	0.00	0.00%	-6.79%	-4.19%	-4.59%	4.97%	-14.25%	17.87%	59.45%
EGO	8.060	-0.090	-1.10%	-6.82%	-0.37%	8.92%	30.00%	10.87%	46.28%	44.19%
HMY	11.11	0.07	0.63%	-7.42%	-6.64%	-11.97%	3.35%	-20.98%	9.46%	-17.52%
AUY	14.00	0.06	0.43%	-8.20%	-8.38%	-3.91%	0.94%	-25.97%	8.53%	11.73%
ABX	38.55	-0.04	-0.10%	-8.37%	-3.79%	-1.56%	-16.23%	-27.33%	0.86%	36.51%
AU	31.96	-0.17	-0.53%	-8.74%	-8.13%	-18.57%	-30.31%	-8.95%	-26.76%	-20.66%
AEM	63.26	0.00	0.00%	-9.15%	-10.51%	-5.46%	11.92%	-18.14%	31.19%	77.90%
KGC	18.09	-0.17	-0.93%	-9.32%	-9.41%	-9.73%	-10.22%	-31.45%	1.40%	44.26%
BVN	62.03	1.07	1.76%	-11.16%	-5.73%	-2.01%	1.89%	-22.80%	11.20%	80.06%
GFI	11.13	0.07	0.63%	-11.39%	-13.92%	-19.93%	-27.73%	-32.26%	-27.30%	-29.65%

The $XAU Goldminers index dropped -8.24 (-4.49%) to 175.46, which is a free fall from the level (187.87) of three weeks ago.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 181.07, and the 200d MA is 178.08, so the technical support is no longer there. As I warned a week ago, “This week was a test, until Friday’s exogenous event. Next week will also be a test of support.”

For the goldminers, the best of the performers was Newmont (NEM) and it took a loss of -2.7% W/W. Gold Fields (GFI) was the worst at -11.4% W/W.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD gained +2.42% W/W to 74.13 in one of the strongest weekly moves we’ve seen for a while.

Isn’t it remarkable that most of the international central bankers are onside the move to boost the US Dollar? Are they acknowledging that inflation must be beaten in America first because the price of commodities are denominated in $USD? Every country has inflation issues!

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -2.45% W/W, closing at 1.5387.

The 50day MA is 1.5631 and the 200day MA is 1.4878.

The question is how far will the ECB head stay with the program ie, a strong $USD policy? I’m suggesting not that long.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -1.11% W/W, closing at 1.9484.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9701 and 2.0021, respectively.

But there is no question that the Pound is in a Bear.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -3.00%, closing at 92.46. That was a very significant crushing of the Yen.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 96.06 and the 200-day MA is 92.34. The current price is sitting right on the 200-day MA. Time for a straddle?

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost -0.92% W/W, closing at 97.23. There was a loss of -0.43% on Friday.

Traders are wondering why the Bank of Canada didn’t lower rates. Too much influence from ex-Goldman colleague Henry Paulson perhaps?

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.17 and 99.96 respectively, which means the current price (97.23) is bearish, ie, below both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

I should be tracking the China Yuan (CNY). http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cny

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International Equity Markets Review

The international equities were all weak this week.

UK FTSE down -1.8% to 5802.8 (-10.1% over 52-weeks)
German DAX down -0.6% to 6765.3 (-16.1% over 52-weeks)
Aussie All-Ords down -3.7% to 5479.6 (-14.7% over 52-weeks)
Shanghai Composite down -13.8% (wow!) to 2868.8 (-45.5%!! over 52-weeks)
HK Heng Seng down -7.4% to 22592.3! (-18.8% over 52-weeks)
India’s BSE 30 down -2.5% to 15189.6 (-25.1% over 52-weeks)
Japan’s Nikkei 225 down -3.6% to 13973.7 (-8.7% over 52-weeks)

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	42.22	0.90	2.18%	0.17%	-8.18%	-14.72%	-31.79%	-8.24%	-35.94%	3.23%
TRF	61.15	0.40	0.66%	-1.86%	-6.36%	-9.07%	-16.79%	1.59%	-21.49%	-7.75%
EWC	33.97	0.25	0.74%	-1.99%	-2.97%	-2.58%	4.85%	7.36%	8.01%	13.99%
EWU	21.72	0.20	0.93%	-2.07%	-4.70%	-6.18%	-9.05%	-1.50%	-14.92%	-14.01%
EWS	12.79	0.05	0.39%	-2.37%	-6.91%	-6.37%	-5.19%	7.48%	-10.12%	-6.30%
EWG	31.61	0.36	1.15%	-2.38%	-5.73%	-5.81%	-10.68%	1.35%	-12.22%	-0.82%
EWH	18.19	-0.01	-0.05%	-2.57%	-6.29%	-8.73%	-16.52%	2.77%	-18.06%	8.53%
EWJ	12.98	0.13	1.01%	-2.70%	-4.14%	-4.35%	-1.89%	5.10%	-5.94%	-10.42%
EWA	27.09	0.44	1.65%	-3.32%	-7.45%	-9.34%	-5.87%	4.72%	-14.46%	-3.32%
EWQ	34.70	0.16	0.47%	-3.82%	-7.46%	-7.16%	-8.53%	1.38%	-10.70%	-8.05%
EWZ	90.82	-0.01	-0.01%	-4.20%	-8.48%	-6.84%	12.19%	11.37%	10.22%	52.87%

All international ETF’s had a bad week except for India (IFN), which gained +0.17% to 42.22.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-3.4%), the S&P 500 (-2.8%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.7%) all had bad weeks, but particularly due to Friday’s sell-off.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MSFT	29.07	0.83	2.94%	5.75%	2.65%	-4.53%	-17.46%	1.57%	-17.46%	-4.34%
MCD	59.95	0.61	1.03%	5.27%	1.06%	-1.50%	3.18%	9.22%	-2.54%	14.87%
DIS	33.93	0.69	2.08%	2.79%	0.98%	-3.03%	6.56%	8.30%	3.57%	1.59%
BA	75.12	1.00	1.35%	2.68%	-9.24%	-12.19%	-13.28%	1.27%	-15.17%	-23.71%
UTX	68.56	0.64	0.94%	2.31%	-3.49%	-7.71%	-8.84%	0.07%	-11.66%	-3.07%
C	20.48	0.59	2.97%	2.09%	-6.44%	-13.70%	-29.18%	-2.80%	-33.96%	-61.85%
DD	47.20	0.89	1.92%	1.90%	-1.48%	-4.68%	7.91%	-0.23%	2.12%	-7.31%
CAT	81.50	1.00	1.24%	1.89%	-1.38%	-2.40%	15.39%	7.70%	9.81%	1.96%
XOM	88.36	1.30	1.49%	1.81%	-0.45%	-3.22%	-5.51%	1.50%	-4.70%	6.01%
MMM	76.12	0.57	0.75%	1.68%	-1.86%	-2.23%	-7.97%	-3.74%	-12.43%	-12.70%
PG	66.45	-0.01	-0.02%	1.65%	0.61%	0.14%	-8.10%	-1.35%	-10.69%	6.54%
GM	16.45	0.69	4.38%	1.42%	-3.80%	-21.03%	-32.61%	-19.01%	-38.96%	-48.75%
WMT	59.18	0.07	0.12%	1.39%	2.49%	3.61%	26.18%	16.96%	22.45%	19.56%
HD	27.53	1.05	3.97%	1.29%	0.62%	-6.77%	5.44%	3.97%	-0.40%	-27.03%
IBM	126.15	2.30	1.86%	0.97%	-2.53%	-1.80%	20.50%	8.83%	16.61%	22.33%
JNJ	66.27	0.58	0.88%	0.78%	-0.70%	-0.61%	0.55%	5.51%	-2.36%	6.58%
AIG	34.18	0.50	1.48%	0.74%	-5.79%	-13.62%	-39.29%	-19.54%	-40.09%	-52.86%
AA	39.46	1.72	4.56%	0.61%	-2.78%	-7.67%	9.22%	2.57%	8.62%	-2.52%
PFE	17.99	0.26	1.47%	0.17%	-7.08%	-10.41%	-21.48%	-15.18%	-23.90%	-31.73%
AXP	44.66	1.24	2.86%	0.02%	-3.65%	-10.43%	-12.50%	4.59%	-17.05%	-29.28%
CVX	99.40	1.34	1.37%	-0.10%	0.25%	0.92%	6.36%	14.20%	6.79%	22.49%
HPQ	47.45	0.48	1.02%	-0.38%	0.83%	1.54%	-4.74%	0.91%	-9.39%	4.29%
KO	55.42	-1.72	-3.01%	-0.68%	-3.21%	-2.79%	-9.28%	-5.96%	-13.53%	7.90%
INTC	22.66	0.61	2.77%	-1.05%	-2.24%	-9.25%	-10.61%	6.48%	-16.57%	-0.04%
JPM	39.58	1.57	4.13%	-1.27%	-7.95%	-15.82%	-6.14%	3.86%	-13.51%	-21.30%
VZ	37.33	0.70	1.91%	-2.35%	-2.96%	-4.04%	-13.61%	7.67%	-17.08%	-12.98%
BAC	29.78	0.34	1.15%	-2.36%	-12.44%	-18.88%	-26.58%	-19.82%	-30.82%	-40.87%
GE	29.15	0.10	0.34%	-2.90%	-5.11%	-9.95%	-20.70%	-14.89%	-22.43%	-22.56%
T	36.68	0.29	0.80%	-4.00%	-8.07%	-7.98%	-10.54%	3.32%	-12.25%	-8.25%
MRK	35.53	0.13	0.37%	-5.23%	-8.80%	-11.18%	-38.07%	-15.26%	-40.58%	-29.88%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on the two Big Oil companies in the Dow 30: Chevron Corp and ExxonMobil.

Note that Exxon is in the Cara 100.

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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In my view, Exxon is a superior company to Chevron, proven by the operating, balance sheet and stock trading metrics. For that reason, Exxon is a Cara 100 company.

The Return on Equity, Operating Margin and Net Profit Margin figures for Exxon are: 27.5%, 18.5% and 9.7%, while for Chevron they are: 22.5%, 17.0% and 6.3%. Traders recognize the quality of XOM, giving it a higher P/E (current and TTM) than CVX: 9.8 and 11.1 vs 9.6 and 10.8, respectively.

Also, while the CVX dividend is expected to grow this year (Y/Y) by +11.95% from 2.26/share to 2.53, the XOM dividend will likely grow +13.14% from 1.37/sh to 1.55. Moreover, while both dividends are quite safe, the XOM dividend as a % of Net Profit is just 18% vs 30% for CVX.

Both companies are rated A++ for balance sheet strength. Value Line, however, rates the Price Growth Persistence and Earnings Predictability factors as 100% and 65% respectfully for XOM, but 90% and 15% for CVX. And they rate the Annual Total Return (Capital Appreciation plus dividends) through 2011-13 at a high of +15% and a low of +10% for XOM but just +12% and +7% for CVX.

So, you can see why I have Exxon and not Chevron as a Cara 100 component.

There are also negatives. This is a Bear market, where the risk of share prices falling from here is high. My experience tells me that oil stocks of this kind will usually bottom out in the stock cycle at about 6 times cash flow. Right now XOM and CVX are trading at a multiple of 7.58x and 6.88x cash flow. At 6x cash flow, XOM could drop from a present 88.36 to 70 and CVX from 99.40 to 86.70 on that basis.

But I doubt that the price of XOM will fall to 70. At 8.75/share in earnings (Value Line estimate) for 2008, a 70 handle would put the PE at just 8.0, which is too low.

Many traders are thinking that the PE may soon get adjusted upwards anyway. If Crude Oil stays in the vicinity of $130/barrel, and NatGas prices stay high, that notion of a higher PE is believable. As you know, I think that Crude Oil is over-priced today and likely to fall well under $100, to perhaps $80 before stabilizing. My basis for that is that world tensions, hoarding by hedge funds, and inventory financing and storage costs are going to change in ways that will pull down the oil price. Alternatives like solar, wind, biomass fuels are being promoted by governments. Recession is also having an impact.

In fact, production levels at the Big Oil companies are already on the decline. Moreover, production and delivery costs are soaring. Traders are not ignoring these points. There are also conscious of the large share buy-back and shareholder dividend programs, which many traders feel are financial engineering tools.

At the end of the day, I stick to my Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 tool for help in determining Accumulation and Distribution Zones. The last times we saw any Accumulation in XOM for instance was in 2003, back in the low 30’s. The stock has tripled since then. At mid-cycle for Big Oil stocks, I prefer to devote my time set aside for analysis to stocks that are in the Accumulation and Distribution Zones, looking for reversals where trades could be put on. That’s better use of my time as well as going fishing or island hopping of course.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Wrap up:

I thoroughly enjoyed last Sunday’s outing to Harbour Island. Here are the Google images link. For walkers, Dunmore Town would be a terrific place to spend a week, but we flew over for the day, which requires a golf cart rental.
After touring historic Dunmore Town, we swam in the Atlantic nearby Coral Sands Resort where we lunched overlooking Pink Sands Beach. Later we swam down the ocean near popular Sip Sip restaurant, however we decided to pass on afternoon snacks there in favor of Runaway Hill Club, owned by NHL Hall of Famer Mark Messier. Then we found the kitchen was closed on Sunday at that delightful spot, so we decided to move to Valentine’s Resort on the bay side where we snacked, swam in the huge pool and had drinks at the marina bar. Then back to the Skymaster and a 40-minute flight to Nassau. What a marvelous break from my usual routine. (Smiley goes here.)

Next stop will probably be Andros, Treasure Cay or Marsh Harbour/Elbow Cay.

Now I’m rushing this WIR because I am about to go fishing—deep-water fishing for snapper—just off Paradise Island. The weather is perfect. In fact, the picture is perfect.

Enjoy your day. Hopefully, I'll return with dinner.

I will say to all, this place is good for the psyche.

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