Not that anybody has actually proven that the Iranian nuclear programme is problematic, but Mr. Olmert says Israel or the US must stop that programme “by all possible means”. Given that Iraq under Saddam Hussein was deemed to be an equal problem, although never proven in that case either, the Americans have in the past seven years put their entire economic health and social framework at risk over this issue. So it goes without saying that the Olmert threat is a real one.

So-called “speculators” are just calling it like they see it. Where there’s smoke, we have been conditioned to look for a fire.

On the macro-economics front, while there may be a few positive comparable metrics in recent weeks, the overall situation is worsening. The US economy is slowing, unemployment hit worrisome numbers this week, and commodity prices are soaring out of control. Interest rates cannot fall, or inflation will simply soar higher, so central banks are between a rock and a hard place.

The impact that lower house prices and credit market squeezing is having on the average American is worrisome to bankers too. In one breath, the bankers are saying, with bravado, that they have seen the worst, yet in the next breath they go hat in hand to the owners of Sovereign Wealth Funds, soliciting their investment capital. The worst is yet to come, I feel.

Friday this week was particularly hard on the Bulls. Traders are wondering now if they were set up on Thursday, right before more depressing economic data was to be released. Traders had been led to believe that stronger banks, lower energy costs, better-than-expected monthly retail sales, booming technology markets and so forth, were just cause for Thursday’s huge gain of +214 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Not! It’s amazing how quickly this hype disappears under the pressure of selling waves.

On Friday, traders were hit with realities from Wall Street, macro-economics and commodity markets. That started the session off weak, growing more extreme as the day wore on, closing down just shy of -400 Dow points. A day to remember.

This equity market situation is not comparable to a rope-a-dope tactic of a young Mohammed Ali. The Dow index almost a year ago was 14022; it’s now at 12209. Investors who are bullish, including all pension funds and most hedge and mutual funds, have been beaten up. We’ve been laughing at the banks, but we should be thinking about ourselves.

By keeping the public hopeful and interested in buying stocks over this past year, can you imagine the huge positions these banks and other major market players have unloaded? It’s what I call a rolling Bear. Rather than take down all stocks at once, in a rotating market only a few groups are knocked down at any one time. This process is somewhat orchestrated by selective ratings downgrades and institutional sales calls. It’s a fact that banks are involved in front-running sales practices at such times.

At the conclusion, the point when the key inside players have offed the last of their over-priced positions, I believe they will stop supporting (ie, promoting) the market. At that point in the Bear, the high-rise elevators will be moving swiftly non-stop to the basement, where independent traders ought to realize that the market savvy bankers, with control over lending and investment, expect to have virtually unrestricted access to the best values in the market. I have seen this every cycle since the 1960’s.

But I think not this time around! Something is different. Independent traders have become savvy too. They have read Graham & Dodd, Edwards & McGee, Buffett, Pring, Murphy and that ilk. They now tune into informed blog commentaries. They are focused on the corporate and industry fundamentals, interest rates, commodity prices, technical indicators and similar metrics.

Just think how much more understanding that independent traders now have with respect to the nuances of RSI, Stochastics, MACD and short selling versus their general trading knowledge as recently as 2002.

The 2000-2002 Bear market smartened up independent traders to the process of what they thought was Wall Street analysis was actually just synthesis, ie, good old story-telling—even in Congressional testimony I might add.

The humungous banks and brokers have been saying to themselves, if you can get away with it, hey why not try. Everybody else seems to be getting theirs. Game on!

Sadly, life has taken that turn. Still, it’s up to the rest of us to be ready to take advantage of a market blow-off. I think we’ll see it, but possibly not until after the summer.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

ISM Manufacturing data for May. According to Econoday, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed that “momentum isn't yet building in this sector but conditions are at least stable, according to the index which rose 1 point in May to a near 50 level of 49.6 that indicates little change from April. New orders were little changed at 49.7 but up nicely from the 46.5 level in May that was indicating contraction. Exports are the main driver for orders, up 2 full points to a 59.5 level that easily leads all components... Employment remains weak, little changed at 45.5 to indicate yet further month-to-month contraction. Prices paid are astronomical, at 87.0 to indicate that the vast majority of purchasers are reporting month-to-month increases in the prices they pay for raw materials. Supply chain readings were stable with inventories on the thin side and deliveries still a bit slow.”

US Factory Orders data for April. March orders were higher than expected, and April proved the same. But there were problems. Econoday reported: “Boosted by a price-related +2.8% month-to-month jump for nondurable goods, factory orders rose +1.1% in April despite a -0.6% decline for durable goods. The Commerce Department said the gain in non-durables was tied to petroleum and coal products. (But) a look at separate durable components shows a 4.2 percent month-on-month decline for vehicles and a 25 percent decline for construction machinery, which is no surprise given the housing slump. Computers fell 23 percent, a group suffering constant price erosion.”

ISM non-manufacturing survey data for May.

US Jobs Report for May. Econoday says, “The May employment report showed a further declining labor sector but was mixed in terms of meeting expectations. The biggest surprise was a half a percentage point jump in the unemployment rate. Nonfarm payroll employment in May declined 49,000, following a decrease of 28,000 in April and a fall of 88,000 in March.”

On Thursday, both the Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) reported on their decision re monetary policy. As expected, the ECD kept its policy interest rate at 4% and the BoE stayed at 5%. I opined before these policy meetings, “My thinking is that there will be no further rate cuts this year on account of the inflationary pressures that policy generates.”

As stated a week ago, I believe that “the inflation and other macro-economic issues that Americans are struggling with are global in scope. High inflation rates will likely result in very few central bank rate cuts in the next couple years. If the global economy suffers further contraction, the monetary authorities can do very little at this point”.

Weekly International Economic Report .

So much for last week; for the most part, it was another bad one.

Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar, which is shaping up to be a not-so-quiet post-Memorial Day week:

US Economic Calendar.

US Pending Home Sales data for April.

US International Trade data for April. Huge deficits abound. As Econoday suggests, any drop in imports, which is normally a good sign, suggests that businesses are recognizing that the economy is weak.

ISM non-manufacturing survey data for May. The April data was borderline recessionary, and also a tad better than expected. Let’s see what information the latest data brings.

US Import and Export Price Report for May. Import prices were surging in April, up +1.8% in the month for a Y/Y gain of +15.4%. Price increases, stemming from the weak US Dollar plus the higher oil costs, even showed a huge +1.1% rise ex-petroleum, and the Y/Y rise was +6.2% -- the worst reading since the late 80s, according to Econoday. So let’s see what happened in May.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was bearish as 9 of 10 sectors dropped in price, and only 3 of 30 Dow components were up on the week. The DJIA index was down -3.4% W/W and -8.0% over the past year.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite lost -2.8% and -1.9% W/W, and are down by -7.3% and -6.7% over the past year.

There were no leaders this week.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Tech, including Semi-conductors, were gainers on the week.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there was 1 sector up and 9 down. On Friday the scoreboard read all 10 sectors down. Only Energy (XLE) managed to eke out a weekly gain—of just 2 cents to 86.02.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	86.02	-1.50	-1.71%	0.02%	-1.97%	1.28%	8.20%	13.41%	12.22%	24.92%
IYZ	26.78	-0.64	-2.33%	-0.41%	1.90%	3.80%	-8.19%	15.33%	-10.40%	-21.63%
XLB	44.17	-1.31	-2.88%	-0.76%	-0.70%	0.55%	6.95%	7.08%	3.64%	8.93%
SMH	32.11	-0.79	-2.40%	-1.65%	-0.59%	1.10%	2.39%	12.90%	-4.26%	-11.30%
IYH	63.51	-1.55	-2.38%	-1.86%	-0.71%	-0.10%	-9.41%	-1.14%	-13.22%	-11.14%
XLU	40.54	-1.15	-2.76%	-1.86%	-2.59%	1.45%	-3.68%	6.85%	-7.76%	0.72%
XLP	27.95	-0.70	-2.44%	-1.90%	-0.96%	-0.18%	-1.55%	2.76%	-4.12%	0.98%
XLK	24.72	-0.69	-2.72%	-2.49%	0.77%	0.28%	-5.36%	12.26%	-8.00%	-2.49%
SPY	136.29	-4.49	-3.19%	-2.89%	-2.31%	-2.06%	-5.96%	3.99%	-9.71%	-10.24%
XLY	31.26	-1.28	-3.93%	-3.25%	-3.07%	-3.49%	-2.92%	2.66%	-9.68%	-21.26%
XLI	37.01	-1.50	-3.90%	-4.71%	-3.39%	-3.82%	-3.90%	2.44%	-7.48%	-4.49%
XLF	23.33	-1.31	-5.32%	-5.78%	-6.83%	-10.27%	-17.74%	-3.52%	-26.22%	-37.65%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

I use XLK for the Tech sector for a total of ten (10) sectors, but also include Semiconductors (SMH) because it is my bellwether on the economy plus use SPY to see where each sector stands relative the broad market.

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	59.55	0.92	1.57%	2.58%	-1.46%	2.06%	8.43%	2.73%	16.06%	26.89%
ECA	92.60	1.91	2.11%	2.47%	-1.81%	7.95%	33.03%	19.48%	37.88%	45.25%
SLB	101.94	-3.05	-2.91%	0.80%	-0.52%	-3.43%	1.35%	16.29%	3.08%	27.78%
CVX	99.50	-0.49	-0.49%	0.35%	-2.36%	2.11%	6.46%	13.33%	8.89%	21.65%
SU	67.86	0.73	1.09%	-0.72%	-5.53%	9.47%	23.09%	24.70%	32.51%	53.98%
STO	38.43	1.01	2.70%	-1.84%	-9.00%	-1.31%	23.02%	25.38%	12.50%	39.34%
XOM	86.79	-2.52	-2.82%	-2.22%	-6.18%	-3.49%	-7.19%	2.70%	-5.09%	3.79%
TOT	84.47	-1.33	-1.55%	-3.20%	-5.66%	1.76%	1.43%	13.83%	0.93%	12.63%
CEO	171.28	-2.83	-1.63%	-3.39%	-13.58%	-5.20%	2.31%	13.51%	-9.71%	69.10%
PBR	68.07	-0.46	-0.67%	-3.45%	-5.48%	6.73%	-42.71%	-40.04%	-36.19%	24.35%
RIG	143.50	-3.97	-2.69%	-4.45%	-7.48%	-8.77%	-1.68%	3.66%	7.01%	44.89%
PTR	135.97	-6.32	-4.44%	-4.62%	-4.69%	-6.23%	-21.70%	-0.46%	-33.87%	2.03%

Crude Oil ($WTIC +$11.19/bbl +8.79% W/W) surged, closing at a new all-time record of 138.54. You can blame this on what is called an exogenous event, the Prime Minister of Israel Mr. Olmert saying that Iran’s nuclear programme would have to be stopped at all costs.

This week, however, XLE gained just 2 cents +0.02% to close at 86.02.

Except for the Canadians (IMO +2.6% and ECA +2.5%) being up, most oil stocks suffered a bad week, which makes me believe that if Oil prices hold on Monday morning, then the oil stocks will rally a tad before getting hammered again. Ultimately, oil will be priced off the current supply and demand, not peak oil concepts or industry Talking Heads like Boone Pickens.

If the economy stays weak, oil prices will likely drop from here. As I say, in time they will have to because critically important industries like the airlines cannot make profits when the price of oil is over $100, or anywhere close, even when they cut capacity. If they over cut capacity, new fuel efficient turbo-prop based carriers like Toronto’s Porter Airlines will pop up all over and that will really screw the majors. Suffice to say, this is a serious problem and oil prices will have to come down or we’ll all have to move to a small island. :-)

The oil stocks that got hit hard this week were: PetroChina -4.6%, PetroBrazil -3.5%, China National Offshore -3.4% and Total -3.2%. That is a lot of market capitalization lost, particularly when the price of oil jumped +4.58% in a week.

The key to the latter is that if Mr. Olmert keeps his mouth shut, the oil price doesn’t zoom +8.41% on Friday. So, the question is, will somebody pay him enough to keep the stuff going on Monday.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	64.65	-0.24	-0.37%	5.46%	5.60%	19.92%	45.64%	32.89%	38.88%	34.63%
NUE	78.20	-2.34	-2.91%	4.55%	4.98%	-4.48%	34.90%	14.16%	27.69%	16.63%
MT	103.01	-1.24	-1.19%	3.70%	4.25%	7.28%	34.83%	32.23%	41.48%	65.77%
VCP	34.35	-0.58	-1.66%	2.05%	8.29%	11.78%	15.66%	5.86%	-0.29%	62.80%
PKX	138.50	-8.55	-5.81%	1.35%	3.54%	7.62%	-5.43%	5.48%	-18.98%	14.51%
GGB	50.54	-0.94	-1.83%	1.16%	1.45%	18.81%	76.10%	60.24%	71.96%	117.47%
BHP	83.82	-0.38	-0.45%	-0.62%	-9.19%	-3.32%	19.05%	14.27%	8.53%	53.80%
TCK	48.56	-0.45	-0.92%	-2.00%	-3.46%	0.60%	34.00%	14.74%	28.98%	13.19%
RTP	467.78	-7.39	-1.56%	-3.15%	-10.98%	-8.85%	11.46%	1.63%	0.93%	66.03%
AA	39.22	-0.86	-2.15%	-3.38%	-3.87%	-1.08%	8.55%	2.22%	9.37%	-1.58%
DOW	38.78	-1.17	-2.93%	-4.01%	-6.82%	-6.03%	0.08%	4.70%	-7.97%	-15.48%
RIO	37.44	-1.27	-3.28%	-5.88%	-9.65%	-6.42%	14.46%	9.76%	2.52%	-17.02%

Basic Materials (XLB -0.76% closing at 44.17) was a loser this week. But Friday’s loss was -2.88%.

Imagine that: $GOLD jumped +2.68% on Friday but the Basic Materials sold off like they did. The writing is on the wall.

The big loser was Dow Chemicals (DOW -4.0%).

Rio Tinto base metals (RTP +5.9% recovered a bit from the prior week loss of -8.1%, and the one (-9.0%) the week before that.

As I opined two weeks ago, “These stocks had been very strong, so traders will be looking closely at the upcoming trading patterns. Typically, a global economic slow-down is expected to produce a cyclical bear phase in these stocks.” I have no interest in buying over-priced stocks.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GE	30.02	-1.04	-3.35%	-2.28%	-3.19%	-7.89%	-18.34%	-8.64%	-19.43%	-19.50%
ABB	31.72	-0.97	-2.97%	-2.34%	-3.73%	1.31%	10.75%	25.13%	7.45%	48.85%
FLR	181.83	-7.19	-3.80%	-2.52%	-3.66%	9.00%	25.92%	26.01%	16.30%	74.30%
FDX	88.86	-4.83	-5.16%	-3.11%	0.03%	-4.67%	3.13%	0.01%	-9.78%	-18.69%
CAT	79.99	-2.74	-3.31%	-3.21%	-2.71%	-2.95%	13.25%	13.06%	7.59%	1.66%
UPS	68.59	-2.46	-3.46%	-3.42%	-1.10%	-3.49%	-0.82%	-4.79%	-7.10%	-4.23%
MMM	74.86	-2.64	-3.41%	-3.48%	-2.32%	-2.72%	-9.49%	-3.96%	-11.74%	-13.58%
UTX	67.01	-2.96	-4.23%	-5.67%	-6.72%	-9.52%	-10.90%	-2.64%	-14.08%	-4.16%
TXT	58.95	-2.18	-3.57%	-5.76%	-4.18%	-4.12%	-11.76%	6.95%	-18.30%	10.95%
HON	54.01	-2.69	-4.74%	-9.41%	-9.03%	-9.01%	-9.83%	-6.04%	-7.25%	-5.81%
ERJ	33.27	-1.44	-4.15%	-11.33%	-12.75%	-17.73%	-26.28%	-21.66%	-29.71%	-30.62%
BA	73.16	-4.15	-5.37%	-11.61%	-10.13%	-13.69%	-15.54%	-7.99%	-20.29%	-25.57%

The Industrials (XLI -4.71% W/W), closing at 37.01, were almost as weak as the Financials.

A week ago, I reported, “There was some blue sky seen in the US economic data that was used to jack up the prices of UPS (UPS +2.41%) and Fedex (FDX +3.24%)”. I am not surprised that was a Bull trap as this week, the Industrial conglomerates were hammered, despite a falling $USD, which should be a help.

GE was best on the week and it lost -2.3%. Boeing (BA) plunged -11.6%. Embraer (ERJ) lost -11.3%.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TM	102.64	-4.10	-3.84%	0.58%	2.15%	2.07%	-3.59%	-1.70%	-9.50%	-16.80%
NKE	67.93	-2.14	-3.05%	-0.64%	4.49%	4.83%	7.35%	14.01%	3.85%	21.94%
TGT	52.52	-2.11	-3.86%	-1.57%	-0.92%	0.34%	6.08%	0.48%	-5.49%	-18.07%
DIS	33.01	-1.48	-4.29%	-1.76%	-1.79%	-4.48%	3.67%	5.63%	0.89%	-5.44%
BC	13.37	-0.83	-5.85%	-2.41%	-11.10%	-17.57%	-20.98%	-14.18%	-34.94%	-60.70%
EBAY	29.26	-0.80	-2.66%	-2.50%	-4.22%	-3.11%	-9.94%	11.98%	-13.36%	-6.13%
BDK	62.11	-1.75	-2.74%	-4.00%	-2.77%	-8.19%	-11.18%	-5.06%	-24.90%	-33.71%
JCP	38.57	-1.99	-4.91%	-4.15%	-4.79%	-10.18%	-7.39%	-9.82%	-13.98%	-52.49%
BBBY	30.47	-1.34	-4.21%	-4.36%	-3.15%	-5.17%	7.44%	9.56%	-5.40%	-19.56%
WHR	68.74	-2.27	-3.20%	-6.70%	-5.04%	-4.30%	-13.95%	-16.56%	-19.75%	-38.50%
CCL	37.23	-2.12	-5.39%	-7.06%	-1.90%	-7.98%	-14.73%	-3.40%	-17.74%	-25.81%
GOL	14.11	-0.49	-3.36%	-8.14%	-4.27%	-12.85%	-41.18%	-13.44%	-45.14%	-55.18%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -3.25% closing at 31.26) were next weakest after Industrials. The loss on Friday was -3.93%, and on the prior Friday was -1.71%.

The leader-board had Toyota up +0.6%, probably due to the utter disaster of sales in the US manufacturers reported this week.

The Cara 100 losers were due to the rising oil price: GOL Airlines (-8.1%) and Carnival Cruise (CCL -7.1%). At $138 oil, Carnival may have to forget their long cruises through the Caribbean and settle on Bahamas. :-)

A week ago, I mentioned Brunswick (BC), which had been down -18.3% over 2 weeks. I opined that it would take oil prices to fall well under $100/bbl before customers return to Brunswick’s pleasure boats (Sea Ray) and marine engines businesses, but since the stock was almost $17 two weeks earlier and then just $13.70, I had been looking at the RSI-7 M-W-D of just 13.90/28.30/11.97 and had been in the Accumulation Zone for two days. I said I would look but not buy. Alternatively, I wrote, “On further weakness (last week), I would consider writing a short put, say the Sep-12.50’s at +0.95, taking my cost basis to 11.55 if the stock is put to me this summer. If I could get $0.25 for the 10’s, I’d take that too… And if, as and when a Buy Alert is set off as the Daily RSI-7 hits 30 and rising, then I might be persuaded to also buy the stock, although I know this is a Bear market, so I am reluctant to take long equity positions over and above long-biased options positions.” But clearly the rocketing oil price this week put a stop to those ideas.

The stock did drop to 13.37 at the close Friday, and the Sept 12.50 puts closed at $0.80, up to +0.95 during the week, and offered at 0.95 Friday. The Sept 10 puts closed at 0.20, but traded up to 0.25, where they are offered. So, despite a horrible market environment the price points I set were reasonable.

In any case, if I can position myself to buy the stock with a potential 12-month gain of say 70% to 100%, then I’m in, and my leveraged options trades will take me there faster if my timing is good.

As I wrote, “if you can line up 10 trades like this, I believe at least 8 will be winners. Your Job #1 is to have more winners than losers and to keep the losses smaller percentage wise than the winners. But you need to be patient, and stand by with a plan in hand.”

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	58.37	-1.43	-2.39%	1.09%	4.14%	2.12%	24.46%	16.79%	18.47%	15.01%
BUD	57.28	-0.47	-0.81%	-0.31%	8.94%	12.05%	10.94%	24.28%	8.69%	7.85%
PG	65.37	-1.30	-1.95%	-1.03%	-0.38%	-0.83%	-9.60%	-1.71%	-11.88%	3.45%
KR	27.30	-1.10	-3.87%	-1.23%	0.33%	3.06%	6.35%	8.42%	-2.95%	-8.70%
WAG	35.53	-1.17	-3.19%	-1.36%	-0.42%	1.02%	-4.85%	-0.31%	-2.90%	-19.78%
DEO	77.46	-2.14	-2.69%	-1.48%	-1.20%	-4.19%	-8.93%	-4.79%	-11.28%	-8.69%
WFMI	28.50	-1.23	-4.14%	-1.72%	1.79%	-15.38%	-28.32%	-17.65%	-33.61%	-27.39%
KO	55.80	-1.39	-2.43%	-2.55%	-4.24%	-0.87%	-8.66%	-5.58%	-11.53%	7.31%
SBUX	17.67	-0.85	-4.59%	-2.86%	3.39%	11.48%	-8.49%	0.40%	-22.67%	-37.23%
ABV	66.34	-2.02	-2.95%	-3.39%	-9.95%	-12.16%	-8.47%	-16.46%	-13.57%	-3.95%
PEP	65.52	-1.77	-2.63%	-4.07%	-4.18%	-2.99%	-12.98%	-6.56%	-14.94%	-2.30%
PDA	57.80	-2.12	-3.54%	-12.02%	-1.95%	3.96%	20.09%	18.37%	13.60%	65.47%

Consumer Staples (XLP -1.90% W/W) was forced into a losing week because of the -2.44% loss on Friday, closing at 27.95.

A week ago, I gave some pretty good advice on Cara 100 Brazilian Perdigao (PDA), which had soared +11.45% that week, hitting a record $66.11, closing at 65.70. With a RSI-7 at 80.15/84.10/75.81 for the M-W-D, I opined the stock had been in the Distribution Zone for 3 days and that “a Sell Alert will be made as the Daily RSI-7 falls below 70. If the Weekly RSI-7 also falls below 70, then I would off the stock”.

Perdigao was added to the Cara 100 on Jan-08 this year at $47.42. At a week ago Friday’s close of 65.70, that was a 5-month gain of about +38.5%, which I joked was up near my usual Buffett-type performance (LOL).

[Actually, when I add or subtract companies to/from the Cara 100 there is zero consideration for the stock price or the technical analysis metrics I use.]

I said “I’m not interested in holding PDA in the high 60’s, particularly a food processor with a Forward P/E of 34 and almost no dividend. When the M-W-D RSI-7 reaches numbers in the 80’s, I’ll buy my hot dogs somewhere else, thank you. Now, rather than write a covered call, I would not hesitate to sell the stock. I feel strongly I could buy this one back at under $60 in a year’s time. My objective is to protect capital, not sit with amazement while Chinese traders buy up stocks on the Sao Paulo Bovespa with the capital handed to them by Wal-Mart USA customers.”

I hope you got the point because PDA closed this week at $57.80. A covered call would have meant nothing but a tad less aggravation (ie, smaller loss). I nailed the trade because the M-W-D RSI-7 at the close this week fell to 62.9/54.0/35.8. When you sell a stock at 65.70 and it falls exactly a week later to 57.80, that’s a one-week gain of +12.0%, using the weekly closing prices.

As you get into the nuances of trading equities and options, you will (hopefully) come to see that timing is not easy, but if you look to trade the extreme cases, and don’t get greedy, you make a dollar here, a dollar there. You start to realize that trading is (i) risk management, and (ii) position (or some people call it money) management. You never look for the big score; you try to make it one trade at a time.

In that context, I have been reading a lot about this Talking Head or Newsletter Writer’s Trading Rules. In my book, I call them guidelines. I’m not interested in rules. I’m interested in learning how to trade, which requires an application of protocols based on inter-market relationships and a feeling for the nuances. Trading requires skill, not rules.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	73.69	0.58	0.79%	3.98%	6.97%	7.86%	9.33%	-7.30%	10.70%	-2.91%
NVO	67.33	1.33	2.02%	3.11%	1.19%	-0.41%	5.53%	-2.76%	-49.07%	-35.27%
AMGN	44.24	-0.69	-1.54%	0.48%	3.44%	5.28%	-5.06%	0.00%	-19.78%	-22.78%
NVS	52.40	-0.61	-1.15%	0.10%	-0.76%	2.34%	-3.98%	9.78%	-7.70%	-6.56%
MDT	50.37	-1.26	-2.44%	-0.59%	-0.73%	5.22%	1.76%	4.16%	-0.79%	-4.15%
WLP	55.44	-1.04	-1.84%	-0.68%	-0.02%	5.58%	-36.28%	-19.87%	-35.62%	-31.93%
AET	46.48	-1.01	-2.13%	-1.44%	-0.32%	6.78%	-17.94%	-4.42%	-20.52%	-9.43%
JNJ	65.76	-1.20	-1.79%	-1.47%	0.54%	-1.70%	-0.23%	5.00%	-3.72%	4.55%
UNH	33.03	-0.91	-2.68%	-3.45%	-6.43%	0.09%	-41.72%	-27.90%	-41.00%	-38.80%
GSK	42.33	-0.89	-2.06%	-4.94%	-5.62%	-4.64%	-15.63%	0.52%	-19.91%	-17.74%
PFE	17.96	-0.71	-3.80%	-7.23%	-9.20%	-10.07%	-21.61%	-16.81%	-25.69%	-32.96%
BMY	20.88	-0.79	-3.65%	-8.38%	-4.87%	-8.38%	-20.09%	-4.09%	-28.20%	-30.79%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) lost -1.86% W/W to close at 63.51. The loss on Friday was -2.44%.

Genentech (DNA) gained +4.0% W/W, including an impressive +0.8% on Friday. Novo Nordisk (diabetes and biopharma maker) was up +3.1% W/W, including +2.0% on Friday.

Bristol Myers (BMY), which had been the leader the week before, took a hit of -8.2% and Pfizer (PFE) dropped -7.2%.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UBS	23.91	-1.49	-5.87%	1.06%	-20.06%	-23.00%	-47.78%	-19.00%	-52.75%	-62.11%
HBC	82.36	-2.15	-2.54%	-2.20%	-2.69%	-4.30%	-0.10%	7.65%	-4.53%	-11.01%
CS	48.99	-1.59	-3.14%	-3.73%	-6.15%	-9.50%	-17.91%	2.66%	-20.54%	-34.38%
GS	169.44	-7.16	-4.05%	-4.25%	-4.38%	-9.74%	-18.38%	6.80%	-23.85%	-25.47%
BBD	22.64	-0.82	-3.50%	-5.71%	-0.35%	-0.61%	-25.60%	-26.54%	-33.88%	-8.23%
DB	100.07	-3.41	-3.30%	-6.01%	-13.89%	-15.64%	-22.46%	-7.89%	-24.37%	-31.64%
IBN	35.45	-1.50	-4.06%	-6.04%	-13.35%	-17.67%	-42.96%	-21.88%	-43.77%	-24.22%
JPM	40.09	-2.01	-4.77%	-6.77%	-6.88%	-12.94%	-4.93%	7.28%	-13.24%	-20.71%
MS	40.81	-3.78	-8.48%	-7.73%	-4.98%	-12.20%	-19.90%	2.87%	-20.88%	-52.52%
C	20.06	-1.16	-5.47%	-8.36%	-7.64%	-17.45%	-30.64%	-5.24%	-41.60%	-62.39%
MER	39.02	-1.94	-4.74%	-11.16%	-12.31%	-18.61%	-26.04%	-14.91%	-36.38%	-56.80%
LEH	32.29	-1.56	-4.61%	-12.28%	-16.13%	-24.78%	-48.08%	-29.85%	-48.86%	-56.49%

I continue to believe that the Financials (XLF) will drag the market down. This week, XLF was worst performing sector, down -5.78% to 23.33. The loss on Friday was -5.32%.

UBS (UBS +1.1% W/W) lost -5.9% on Friday. The previous week, UBS plunged -20.9%. The stock continues to get hammered for management’s miscues. Why they are not all turfed is beyond me.

As explained a week ago, “one of the problems for the market is the notion of crowding out. The central banks of the world need to keep printing Dollars or Euros or whatever so that the banks can quickly find them when searching for capital as they write down their dubious assets. Otherwise, the equity market dies an illiquid death. So blame this inflation curse on your banker as well as on those politicians who bring about war rather than diplomacy.”

Mr. Olmert, you take the prize this week for the second point. What bothers me is that I think these people are paid to say what they say, when they say it. If it could be proved, there would no longer be a capital market, so really I hope it’s not true. Maybe these people are just ignorant of capital markets? Do you think?

Lehman (LEH) plunged -12.3% W/W and is now down -56.5% over 52-weeks. For that impressive track record, the powers that be at Lehman took home maybe a billion dollars in year-end bonuses.

Same with Merrill Lynch, which plunged -11.2% this week and is down -56.8% over the past year. Ask how many millions CEO John Thain ripped off the shareholders for his token appearances last December, a holiday month.

Citigroup dropped -8.4% W/W and -62.4% over the past year. I think the Saudi billionaire prince isn’t complaining with his $138/bbl oil revenues. That’s quite a hedge. Did he learn that at Syracuse U?

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSCO	26.54	-1.00	-3.63%	-0.67%	3.75%	3.27%	0.00%	10.86%	-4.50%	-0.23%
INTC	22.90	-0.97	-4.06%	-1.20%	-4.10%	-2.13%	-9.66%	15.26%	-18.15%	6.57%
CTSH	34.77	-2.01	-5.46%	-1.45%	12.16%	16.52%	7.88%	18.31%	9.48%	-9.66%
ADSK	40.51	-0.98	-2.36%	-1.58%	2.77%	4.33%	-16.02%	29.84%	-15.76%	-9.07%
AAPL	185.64	-3.79	-2.00%	-1.65%	4.85%	0.31%	-4.72%	53.51%	-2.27%	50.15%
ORCL	22.46	-0.72	-3.11%	-1.66%	0.67%	6.45%	-0.13%	16.80%	4.86%	16.07%
SAP	53.55	-0.75	-1.38%	-1.92%	1.56%	9.22%	5.56%	11.70%	1.94%	9.64%
SNDK	27.60	-1.11	-3.87%	-2.51%	-4.00%	-5.48%	-16.79%	25.51%	-29.88%	-36.81%
QCOM	47.14	-2.25	-4.56%	-2.88%	2.77%	6.89%	22.79%	16.60%	16.65%	11.63%
INFY	47.47	-1.90	-3.85%	-3.34%	7.37%	10.83%	6.84%	28.19%	9.45%	-2.35%
ADBE	42.30	-1.59	-3.62%	-3.99%	2.17%	5.75%	1.41%	30.27%	-5.03%	-3.07%
RIMM	131.41	-4.18	-3.08%	-5.37%	0.71%	0.18%	15.57%	34.20%	26.50%	139.23%

Tech (XLK -2.40% W/W closing at 24.72) was a week performer this week, with a loss of -2.72% on Friday. The Semi-conductors (SMH -1.65%) industry was a tad stronger.

Cisco (CSCO) dropped only -0.7% this week, while Research In Motion (RIMM) was in reverse, losing -5.4%.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -0.41% W/W, closing at 26.78) was second best performer again this week among the ten sector ETF’s.

Verizon (VZ) -0.62% W/W and AT&T (T) -4.24% W/W were marching to different drummers. On Friday, VZ lost -1.87% and T -3.17%

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -1.86% W/W), including a loss of -2.76% on Friday, was also weak.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.78	1.79	1.83	1.59
6 Month	1.91	1.93	1.94	1.68
2 Year	2.37	2.49	2.64	2.30
3 Year	2.34	2.47	2.60	2.23
5 Year	3.17	3.32	3.42	3.07
10 Year	3.91	4.04	4.06	3.84
30 Year	4.62	4.73	4.72	4.60

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.34	2.31	2.37	2.39
2yr AAA	2.34	2.25	2.39	2.47
2yr A	2.65	2.63	3.00	2.75
5yr AAA	2.98	2.91	2.99	3.06
5yr AA	2.98	3.01	3.03	3.13
5yr A	3.19	3.44	3.34	3.47
10yr AAA	3.66	3.68	3.69	3.70
10yr AA	3.66	3.70	3.63	3.74
10yr A	3.69	3.84	3.73	3.88
20yr AAA	4.40	4.45	4.49	4.63
20yr AA	4.27	4.33	4.47	4.43
20yr A	4.46	4.47	4.49	4.53

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.89	4.04	4.15	4.11
2yr A	4.19	4.26	4.10	3.76
5yr AAA	4.58	4.70	4.44	4.57
5yr AA	4.99	5.07	5.06	4.71
5yr A	5.12	5.22	5.15	4.96
10yr AAA	5.55	5.60	5.34	5.43
10yr AA	6.12	6.09	6.04	5.89
10yr A	5.78	5.83	5.72	5.57
20yr AAA	6.23	6.33	6.28	6.12
20yr AA	6.20	6.30	6.25	5.89
20yr A	6.48	6.58	6.53	6.37

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Two weeks ago I reported that:

“Basically, the yields have lifted in the past two weeks, which has knocked down bond prices, but not so much that traders want to sell blindly. That means my “(paired) trade of the generation” is not yet ready... Stagflation hurts bond prices like it hurts equity prices. Inflation requires higher interest rates to snuff out the speculator’s desire to borrow money in order to chase rising prices. Higher interest rates of course knock down the price of bonds… Importantly, just so you understand where I am coming from; higher gold prices can go hand in glove with higher interest rates, so the paired trade is to sell bonds and buy gold—at the appropriate time.”

This is a challenge to discuss market timing on a blog that is read by so many different people with so many different interests, resources, and degrees of knowledge. But my belief is that the rush from equities into bonds will drive down yields one more time at least, which rallies the bond prices, and on any extreme trade where bonds hit a high price –even a lower high in a bond Bear—that is the time to sell the bonds. Simultaneously, I anticipate a stronger $USD, which would drive down $GOLD, presenting an opportunity for long-term oriented traders to buy.

Over the long run, I am simply looking to be positioned on the right side of trend. So, my ‘Trade of the Generation’ would require me to sell bonds and buy gold, at the right time.

If I’m just looking for a good trade, I will say with confidence I will call it. But this Trade of the Generation notion, which admittedly is of my doing, is a real challenge.

In 1982, I got it right within a month, calling the purchase of bonds and the sale of gold. This was published as a 5000 word article (an investment round table done at the Toronto Press Club) by my writing mentor Frank Kaplan. Just in the securities industry as a rookie of some 16 months, I had been invited by the publisher of “Canadian Doctor” to participate along with the head of a securities firm who had been Ontario Energy Minister, I think, plus the Executive Vice President and CFO of one of the global natural resources giants, who had also been a professor of finance at University of Toronto. I picked my spot and then called the Trade of the Generation, which did in fact turn out to be that. At the time, I thought it was an easy call. Canada Bonds were yielding 15% in a retirement savings plan. I said buy them and sell gold, which had peaked in 1980, then after dropping rallied one more (and final) time. I nailed it.

At the close of the week, yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) closed own -7, -25, -15 and -10 basis points, respectively to 2.37, 3.17, 3.91, and 4.22.

Last week, I used an incorrect yield figure or the 2-year Treasury note. Sorry, but I rattle this stuff off as fast as possible and don’t do any review or edit checks.

The 20-year TLT closed up +0.53% to 90.76 and the TIP lost -0.06% to 106.72.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IEF	87.96	0.76	0.87%	0.74%	-0.18%	-1.08%	0.38%	-2.49%	1.20%	8.51%
EQR	42.55	-1.61	-3.65%	0.61%	1.94%	1.67%	16.80%	15.91%	6.61%	-14.08%
TLT	90.76	1.31	1.46%	0.53%	-0.67%	-1.52%	-3.84%	-1.47%	-2.19%	6.28%
SHY	82.94	0.11	0.13%	0.04%	0.05%	-0.37%	0.73%	-1.51%	0.83%	3.99%
AGG	100.98	0.56	0.56%	0.00%	-0.56%	-1.18%	-0.66%	-0.31%	-0.71%	2.51%
TIP	106.72	1.29	1.22%	-0.06%	-1.25%	-0.76%	0.08%	-3.23%	1.65%	7.98%
AVB	99.15	-5.94	-5.65%	-2.03%	-0.51%	-0.72%	8.54%	9.26%	-4.81%	-21.92%
NLY	17.20	-0.35	-1.99%	-3.43%	-2.22%	4.50%	-4.97%	8.72%	-1.21%	18.62%
DRE	24.60	-1.32	-5.09%	-4.21%	-3.94%	-5.20%	-3.98%	15.06%	-11.13%	-36.79%
CFC	5.030	-0.260	-4.91%	-4.37%	7.25%	-0.20%	-44.11%	-3.27%	-58.43%	-87.11%
FNM	25.71	-1.88	-6.81%	-4.85%	-7.85%	-6.95%	-31.37%	18.48%	-33.63%	-59.86%
FRE	23.96	-1.33	-5.26%	-5.74%	-8.86%	-5.78%	-26.82%	18.97%	-35.42%	-64.06%

The big three of the mortgage suppliers, CFC, FNM and FRE, were hammered this week, down -4.37%, -4.85% and -5.74% respectively.

Congress is going to permit smaller down-payments, which is the same problem the housing market had in the past couple years. The softness for these GSA companies is likely because traders don’t care for the loosening policies.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

On the basis of the price surge in oil, the $CRB jumped +4.58% W/W to close at 441.51, up from 422.07. Friday’s gain in Oil was +8.41% and that boosted the $CRB +3.60% on Friday. Work that back to the lips of Ehud Olmert. Then guess what the man will say for Monday!

Tell me that the gold bugs know! Not!

But isn’t it interesting that the gold bugs have their own take on things? Problem is they have the same take on anything, and they will tell the already converted and the newbies that the commodity prices moved up on supply vs demand, or because newsletter writer Mr X called it two weeks ago—something about the sunspots or the Moon over Paramour or something like that.

You know I josh, but there is only so much crapola a sane person can take from these marketing wizards…

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +11.19/bbl to close this week up +8.79% from 127.35 to 138.54. There was a high water mark of 139.12 on Friday.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

Actually, forget about the rally on Friday, how many of you remember when the Saudi’s couldn’t get more than $11.19 for the whole barrel of oil?

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 119.01 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 97.88. Just remember there is a reversion to the mean price, often.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD lost -34.30/oz a week ago, and this week gained, amid blaring trumpets and fanfare from the gold bugs, just $7.50. The close on Friday was 899.00.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 901.53, down from 906.35 a week ago, and the 200d MA is 849.87.

So the current price is still below the 50-day MA, and there is no reason to jump on the bandwagon. In fact of the $7.50/oz (+0.84%) gain on the week, please appreciate that +2.68% was on Friday due to Mr. Olmert, and the rest of the week was a big loser.

Two weeks ago I wrote in this space, “The trend is clearly up. But here is where I think that the gold-bugs are going to get trapped. I’m watching the $USD for timing of the next trade.” Ergo, a week ago, “the $USD gained +1.26%, including a move of +1.50% from Monday through Thursday. The gold Bulls got hammered despite all their jive talk.” This week, the $USD was up from Monday through Thursday and then the Israeli PM spoke about stopping Iran “at any cost”. Ergo, the price jumped. That’s what I love about trading; you never know when people are going to say market shaking words.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.57/oz or +3.35% to close at 17.43. A week ago the price was 16.86, but the “silver crazies” would like you to believe it’s going back to $21.44 or much higher. At some point, yes. But not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.

There was a gain of +1.51% on Friday.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.30, which is down, and the 200d MA is 15.87.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT gained +69.10/oz (+3.43%), which is impressive until you see that the previous week’s loss was -157.50/oz (-7.25%).

The current price of 2085.30 is nowhere close to the record high of 2299. There was a gain on Friday of +3.41, which matches the gain on the week.

The 50-day MA is 2033.64 and the 200-day MA is 1703.41.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM didn’t gain this week. There was a loss of -5.20/oz -1.18% to 433.80, despite the gain on Friday of +1.50%.

The prior week’s loss was -22.25/oz or -4.82% W/W, closing at 439.00. There had been a gain the previous week of +4.05/oz. So palladium seems to be going nowhere. Anyway, I don’t see it as an indicator, like silver and platinum or the $USD/Euro.

The 50-day MA is now 449.14 and the 200-day MA is 409.41.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +1.70 (+0.47%), closing at 362.30. A week ago there was a loss of -13.00 (-3.48%), closing at 360.60. The prior week’s loss was -9.05 (-2.37%). There was a gain of +2.26% on Friday.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 380.60 (the current price is lower) and the 200-day MA is 350.15.

Like most of these metals, the 50-day MA is on the decline. That’s not a good sign for the metal Bulls.

“I still think the 50d MA is a battleground for traders.” I’ll add that I don’t foresee copper heading back over it any time soon.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EGO	8.650	0.220	2.61%	6.92%	6.00%	19.97%	39.52%	13.22%	49.40%	42.74%
BVN	69.82	1.63	2.39%	6.11%	5.37%	5.95%	14.68%	-10.82%	25.06%	105.72%
ABX	42.07	1.64	4.06%	4.99%	-1.15%	4.55%	-8.58%	-18.66%	4.50%	46.38%
GG	41.26	1.77	4.48%	2.79%	-1.67%	3.43%	12.61%	-7.32%	23.53%	66.57%
LIHR	29.28	0.27	0.93%	2.02%	-7.72%	-0.10%	-11.73%	-22.64%	-12.39%	7.45%
NEM	48.32	0.42	0.88%	1.66%	-1.37%	3.87%	-7.77%	-5.11%	-4.35%	17.74%
HMY	12.00	0.11	0.93%	0.84%	-8.33%	-3.23%	11.63%	-10.98%	9.39%	-15.49%
AU	35.02	0.17	0.49%	0.66%	-10.09%	-11.12%	-23.64%	-5.30%	-24.54%	-17.35%
KGC	19.95	0.45	2.31%	-0.10%	-4.22%	-0.70%	-0.99%	-24.17%	9.62%	48.55%
AUY	15.25	0.32	2.14%	-0.20%	-4.27%	3.95%	9.95%	-19.86%	16.15%	10.83%
AEM	69.63	2.90	4.35%	-1.50%	-2.48%	5.56%	23.20%	-6.47%	41.75%	87.38%
GFI	12.56	0.00	0.00%	-2.86%	-11.36%	-9.64%	-18.44%	-20.25%	-23.13%	-24.34%

The $XAU Goldminers index lifted +2.6 +1.5% to 183.70, significantly below the level (187.87) of two weeks ago. If it were not for a gain of +1.73% on Friday, this index would also have fallen W/W.

There were some good moves among gold stocks on Friday, but over the course of the week, the results were mixed.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 181.13, and the 200d MA is 177.05, so the technical support is there, but barely. This week was a test, until Friday’s exogenous event. Next week will also be a test of support.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD lost -0.91% on Friday, carrying the US Dollar to a loss of -0.67% W/W, closing at 72.38.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) gained +1.39% W/W, closing at 1.5773, thanks largely to Friday’s gain of +1.14%.

This week, the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England were unchanged as to monetary policy.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -0.59% W/W, closing at 1.9703 despite a gain of +0.61% on Friday.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9731 and 2.0032, respectively.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.57%, closing at 95.32 thanks to Friday’s gain of +0.99%.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 96.62 and the 200-day MA is 92.17.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost -2.55% W/W, closing at 98.13. There was a very small loss (-0.13%) on Friday.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.22 and 99.88 respectively, which means the current price (99.13) is slightly below both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

I should be tracking the China Yuan (CNY). http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cny

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International Equity Markets Review

Except for Japan and Canada, international equities were weak this week. India’s Sensex index dropped the most, -5.1%, and is down -23.2% in the past year.

UK FTSE down -2.4% to 5906.8 (-8.5% over 52-weeks)
German DAX down -4.1% to 6803.81 (-15.7% over 52-weeks)
Aussie All-Ords -1.4% to 5691.2 (-11.4% over 52-weeks)
Shanghai Composite down -3.0% to 3329.7 (-36.7% over 52-weeks)
HK Heng Seng down -0.5% to 24402.2 (-12.3% over 52-weeks)
India’s BSE 30 down -5.1% to 15572.2 (-23.2% over 52-weeks)
Japan’s Nikkei 225 up +1.1% to 14489.4 (-5.3% over 52-weeks)

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWC	34.66	-0.23	-0.66%	-1.00%	-2.12%	2.70%	6.98%	10.49%	8.52%	15.42%
EWJ	13.34	-0.49	-3.54%	-1.48%	-0.67%	0.00%	0.83%	9.43%	-7.23%	-8.94%
EWU	22.18	-0.54	-2.38%	-2.68%	-4.44%	-4.36%	-7.12%	2.12%	-14.03%	-11.60%
EWG	32.38	-0.78	-2.35%	-3.43%	-4.34%	-2.09%	-8.51%	5.40%	-5.79%	0.56%
EWQ	36.08	-0.97	-2.62%	-3.79%	-4.12%	-1.47%	-4.90%	7.54%	-8.84%	-5.15%
EWH	18.67	-0.79	-4.06%	-3.81%	-1.84%	-4.55%	-14.32%	4.83%	-21.85%	11.93%
EWA	28.02	-0.58	-2.03%	-4.27%	-5.47%	-2.10%	-2.64%	8.56%	-7.19%	-0.28%
EWZ	94.80	-2.55	-2.62%	-4.47%	-2.75%	2.60%	17.11%	14.98%	10.88%	61.97%
TRF	62.31	-1.31	-2.06%	-4.58%	-5.19%	0.31%	-15.21%	5.59%	-12.99%	-3.62%
EWS	13.10	-0.39	-2.89%	-4.66%	-3.11%	-3.18%	-2.89%	10.36%	-11.90%	-2.96%
IFN	42.15	-2.12	-4.79%	-8.33%	-9.39%	-13.13%	-31.91%	-9.16%	-35.65%	0.05%

All international ETF’s had a bad week.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-3.4%), the S&P 500 (-2.8%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.7%) all had bad weeks, but particularly due to Friday’s sell-off.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HPQ	47.63	-0.88	-1.81%	1.21%	6.08%	-2.91%	-4.38%	-0.31%	-8.77%	3.48%
WMT	58.37	-1.43	-2.39%	1.09%	4.14%	2.12%	24.46%	16.79%	18.47%	15.01%
CVX	99.50	-0.49	-0.49%	0.35%	-2.36%	2.11%	6.46%	13.33%	8.89%	21.65%
VZ	38.23	-0.73	-1.87%	-0.62%	2.03%	-0.05%	-11.53%	8.36%	-13.94%	-10.93%
HD	27.18	-0.73	-2.62%	-0.66%	1.00%	-2.65%	4.10%	5.51%	-7.83%	-29.03%
PG	65.37	-1.30	-1.95%	-1.03%	-0.38%	-0.83%	-9.60%	-1.71%	-11.88%	3.45%
INTC	22.90	-0.97	-4.06%	-1.20%	-4.10%	-2.13%	-9.66%	15.26%	-18.15%	6.57%
JNJ	65.76	-1.20	-1.79%	-1.47%	0.54%	-1.70%	-0.23%	5.00%	-3.72%	4.55%
DIS	33.01	-1.48	-4.29%	-1.76%	-1.79%	-4.48%	3.67%	5.63%	0.89%	-5.44%
XOM	86.79	-2.52	-2.82%	-2.22%	-6.18%	-3.49%	-7.19%	2.70%	-5.09%	3.79%
GE	30.02	-1.04	-3.35%	-2.28%	-3.19%	-7.89%	-18.34%	-8.64%	-19.43%	-19.50%
KO	55.80	-1.39	-2.43%	-2.55%	-4.24%	-0.87%	-8.66%	-5.58%	-11.53%	7.31%
MSFT	27.49	-0.81	-2.86%	-2.93%	-3.44%	-6.08%	-21.95%	-0.29%	-20.43%	-9.24%
CAT	79.99	-2.74	-3.31%	-3.21%	-2.71%	-2.95%	13.25%	13.06%	7.59%	1.66%
DD	46.32	-1.41	-2.95%	-3.32%	-4.36%	-6.10%	5.90%	-0.32%	-1.97%	-9.14%
AA	39.22	-0.86	-2.15%	-3.38%	-3.87%	-1.08%	8.55%	2.22%	9.37%	-1.58%
IBM	124.94	-3.53	-2.75%	-3.46%	0.19%	0.02%	19.34%	11.04%	13.89%	22.00%
MMM	74.86	-2.64	-3.41%	-3.48%	-2.32%	-2.72%	-9.49%	-3.96%	-11.74%	-13.58%
AXP	44.65	-2.78	-5.86%	-3.67%	-3.69%	-8.60%	-12.52%	8.14%	-25.00%	-29.95%
MRK	37.49	-1.40	-3.60%	-3.77%	-3.95%	-4.09%	-34.65%	-11.56%	-36.99%	-26.14%
MCD	56.95	-1.10	-1.89%	-4.00%	-2.70%	-4.72%	-1.98%	7.37%	-5.52%	12.46%
T	38.21	-1.25	-3.17%	-4.24%	-2.48%	-1.67%	-6.80%	9.11%	-1.57%	-5.37%
GM	16.22	-0.83	-4.87%	-5.15%	-11.99%	-23.31%	-33.55%	-27.43%	-43.31%	-45.95%
UTX	67.01	-2.96	-4.23%	-5.67%	-6.72%	-9.52%	-10.90%	-2.64%	-14.08%	-4.16%
AIG	33.93	-2.48	-6.81%	-6.48%	-10.26%	-23.15%	-39.73%	-20.87%	-44.69%	-52.99%
JPM	40.09	-2.01	-4.77%	-6.77%	-6.88%	-12.94%	-4.93%	7.28%	-13.24%	-20.71%
PFE	17.96	-0.71	-3.80%	-7.23%	-9.20%	-10.07%	-21.61%	-16.81%	-25.69%	-32.96%
C	20.06	-1.16	-5.47%	-8.36%	-7.64%	-17.45%	-30.64%	-5.24%	-41.60%	-62.39%
BAC	30.50	-1.49	-4.66%	-10.32%	-12.18%	-18.30%	-24.80%	-16.48%	-33.64%	-39.40%
BA	73.16	-4.15	-5.37%	-11.61%	-10.13%	-13.69%	-15.54%	-7.99%	-20.29%	-25.57%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on one Dow 30 company: McDonalds [GICS 30].

Overall, I am impressed that McDonalds management has caught the trends in the fast-food market and has performed well.

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McDonalds [GICS 25, Dow 30]

(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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With regard to McDonalds, the Value Line analyst seems to be enamoured with the ramp up in earnings this year as he has forecasted growth from $2.91/share to $3.40/share, which is a +17% growth, more than double the normal growth range for this company.

Still, he says, “the shares offer below-average capital appreciation potential 3 to 5 years hence.” The good news is that MCD is “a good pick for value-conscious investors” he says.

I can’t argue either way. What I do feel is that the metrics are good enough now for inclusion of the company in the Cara 100, and I have been giving some thought to that.

As you know, there is a difference between a company and its share price. This company is well managed. But the stock has had a big run from $12 in 1Q03 to its present $56.95. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of performance again for a while.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

---

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

---

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

---

McDonalds [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Wrap up:

I intend to make a statement on Wednesday of this week regarding the availability and shipping of my book “Lessons from the Trader Wizard”.

As Team Cara prepares to deliver discretionary portfolio management services for clients, one of the members, Pascal Willain, has sent me a copy of his new book, "Value in Time: Better Trading Through Effective Volume" that was published this week by John Wiley & Sons. I hope you buy it.

Pascal has developed trading programs that zero in on volume nuances of institutional trading in over 250 stocks in order to determine accumulation or distribution patterns. He also produces a Money Flow calculation for the S&P500 and publishes this figure daily on his web site: http://www.effectivevolume.com. He says that the large players on Wall Street have been selling into the price bounce that has occurred since the middle of March.

I’ll be writing more about Pascal’s book and my own later this week. Have a great one.

I am now off in the Skymaster for the day to Harbour Island, prettiest town in The Bahamas. Except for buzzing the place from the sky a couple weeks ago, I haven’t been there on the ground for 12 years, so I’m sure there are many new developments. I plan to take photos, but here is the Google images link.

Wish you all were here. Wish I had more time to edit. Please ignore the typos.

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