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June 4, 2008

Daily Report for Wed, Jun 04, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Despite a pullback of -$3.45/bbl in Crude Oil ($WTIC) as well as improved US manufacturing data, yesterday saw more steep losses in the equity market. The automakers were largely to blame.

The DJIA (-100.97 -0.81% to 12402.85), S&P 500 (-8.02 -0.58% to 1377.65) and NASDAQ Composite (-11.05 -0.44% to 2480.48) closed down on the session, but also higher than the intra-day lows, where the DJIA hit 12342.

Automakers reported very downbeat April sales data, with the other General, General Motors (GM) GM announcing a -29% decline; Chrysler a -26% decline, which put it into 5th position in North America; Ford down -16%; and even fuel-efficient car manufacturer Toyota down -4.3%. The aggregate sales result was alarming to the Bulls.

The sector leaders were Healthcare (XLV +0.66%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.53%), whereas Energy (XLE -2.15%) reversed track from the previous day’s leadership and led the market lower.

Airlines ($XAL +2.9%) liked the lower oil price, while Goldminers ($XAU) and Oil Services ($OSX) were down -1.9%.

The higher stocks for the Cara 100 companies were SanDisk (SNDK +5.5%), Garmin (GRMN +4.5%, which followed the prior day’s gain of +2.9%), Target (TGT +4.1% and Brunswick Corp (+3.6%).

The Cara 100 losers were China Telecom (CHA -11.4%), which reversed the previous day’s leading gain of +5.0%, PetroBrazil (PBR -4.6%) and India’s HDFC Bank (HDB -3.9%). HDB had lost -5.4% the previous day as well as the India stock market continues to sink.

On the earnings front, house-builder Toll Brothers (TOL) reverted to a Q2 loss of -$93.7 million (-$0.59 cents a share) versus earnings of +$36.7 million a year ago.

Crude Oil lost -$3.45/bbl to close at 124.31. In futures trading early today, the price is down to $123.70. Comments by Fed Head Bernanke and moves by India and Malaysia to cut fuel subsidies weakened the oil price, and firmed up the US Dollar ($USD +0.46% to 73.29).

With the stronger $USD, precious metal prices tumbled. $GOLD futures dropped -$11.50/oz to close yesterday at 885.50.

The US Treasury market firmed during the day, especially after 1:45pm ET when equities started falling quickly. At the close the long bond ($USB) closed up +0.73% to 115.89. The T-Bill yield is at 1.81 percent.

In the morning spot market, prices for precious metals are a tad lower (with prices compared in brackets to the previous day) for Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver: 878.52 (892.92); 426 (429); 1986 (2011); and 16.64 (16.73), respectively.

The Euro futures are trading a tad stronger early today at 1.5463, but still down from early yesterday’s 1.5580. Crude Oil futures are soft, down -0.61/bbl to 123.70. The DJIA near futures are down -38 to 12366.


Comments & Outlook

There is a question about how far north the $USD can travel. My opinion is only as far as the Price of Gold can be knocked down.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SNDK 28.850 +1.510 +5.5 11M
GRMN 52.870 +2.300 +4.5 6.7M
TGT 55.000 +2.180 +4.1 19M
BC 14.000 +0.490 +3.6 3.8M
DELL 23.470 +0.680 +3 42.9M
UBS 23.600 +0.560 +2.4 13.7M
MICC 114.790 +1.200 +1.1 610.9K
ORCL 22.910 +0.230 +1 50.9M
CTSH 34.870 +0.350 +1 4M
WMT 57.770 +0.570 +1 17M
KSS 44.740 +0.430 +1 5M
OXPS 22.460 +0.190 +0.9 1.4M
AET 45.650 +0.310 +0.7 3M
ABB 32.470 +0.220 +0.7 5.8M
WAG 36.340 +0.230 +0.6 7.5M
NTES 22.000 +0.120 +0.5 800.1K
ATVI 33.740 +0.170 +0.5 4.5M
JNJ 66.760 +0.250 +0.4 11.3M
DEO 77.240 +0.210 +0.3 698K
TT 46.350 +0.120 +0.3 1.8M
GE 30.460 +0.050 +0.2 52.2M
ADBE 43.530 +0.070 +0.2 5.4M
TEF 84.300 +0.130 +0.2 684.3K
GSK 43.710 +0.060 +0.1 973.3K
PG 65.410 +0.050 +0.1 11M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CHA 63.030 -8.130 -11.4 649.9K
LEH 30.610 -3.220 -9.5 135.5M
PBR 68.070 -3.280 -4.6 16.6M
HDB 90.680 -3.690 -3.9 777.7K
BA 78.120 -3.030 -3.7 10.2M
GOL 14.330 -0.550 -3.7 660.4K
RIO 38.520 -1.410 -3.5 30.8M
SU 66.220 -2.340 -3.4 4.1M
VIP 33.900 -1.170 -3.3 3M
WBK 103.460 -3.130 -2.9 31.4K
IMO 57.680 -1.710 -2.9 488.3K
GFI 12.510 -0.370 -2.9 4.5M
STO 37.380 -1.100 -2.9 1.7M
PDA 62.010 -1.790 -2.8 145.9K
PTR 140.180 -3.920 -2.7 1.2M
CCL 38.230 -1.050 -2.7 5.9M
GG 39.500 -1.080 -2.7 6.2M
BHP 83.330 -2.220 -2.6 4.1M
AMAT 18.950 -0.500 -2.6 22.4M
RIMM 133.510 -3.510 -2.6 17M
XOM 85.710 -2.100 -2.4 30.4M
ABV 66.320 -1.540 -2.3 820.6K
SLW 14.270 -0.310 -2.1 1.9M
INFY 46.770 -1.000 -2.1 5.1M
CHL 72.970 -1.490 -2 2.6M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ORCL 23.570 22.910 +0.230 +1.01 50.88M
TS 62.770 60.950 -0.190 -0.31 3.12M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GFI 12.510 12.510 -0.370 -2.87 4.53M
DB 102.100 102.770 -1.730 -1.66 518.12K
ERJ 34.410 34.980 -0.540 -1.52 1.15M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
LEH 30.610 -9.5 135.5M +530
GRMN 52.870 +4.5 6.7M +119
UBS 23.600 +2.4 13.7M +118
BC 14.000 +3.6 3.8M +113
TGT 55.000 +4.1 19M +113
OXPS 22.460 +0.9 1.4M +111
HDB 90.680 -3.9 777.7K +96
BA 78.120 -3.7 10.2M +94
TEF 84.300 +0.2 684.3K +92
ORCL 22.910 +1 50.9M +81
GS 170.580 -1 13.2M +80
HBC 83.400 -0.3 1.9M +68
BBBY 31.730 -0.3 7M +65
INFY 46.770 -2.1 5.1M +65
ABB 32.470 +0.7 5.8M +62
WAG 36.340 +0.6 7.5M +61
ERJ 34.980 -1.5 1.2M +56
DELL 23.470 +3 42.9M +54
UTX 69.760 -1.4 6.9M +53
BDK 62.340 -1.1 1M +52
IBN 34.960 -1.2 4.1M +49
PAYX 33.630 -0.5 4.4M +48
TS 60.950 -0.3 3.1M +46
RIO 38.520 -3.5 30.8M +41
CCL 38.230 -2.7 5.9M +36

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
WMT Morgan Keegan --- --- Mkt Perform Outperform
ABX CIBC --- --- Sector Perform Sector Outperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
GS Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Buy
CTSH Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
LLTC UBS Securities --- 38.00 Buy Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
GGB Morgan Stanley --- --- Overweight Equal-weight
LEH Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Underperform


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT63.0090.6864.7364.93
GGB49.0088.3080.4954.06Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, -1.19% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PBR68.0787.0863.6740.69Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $72.02, -5.48% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
ECA89.8384.4463.6943.69Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $94.31, -4.75% chg], after a 8 day DZ)
ATVI33.7482.8089.4872.55Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
PDA62.0182.3974.9453.77Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-02 at $63.80, -2.81% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
EXC86.8078.4560.3344.18Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, -2.27% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
WMT57.7778.1074.2661.29
ABB32.4777.4976.4755.30Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-23 at $32.76, -0.89% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
VCP33.3877.0266.3364.44
RIMM133.5176.2063.7142.19
NUE74.4575.7954.4443.66
TT46.3574.3861.1450.38
RIO38.5273.9253.0932.35
TS60.9573.8775.1263.85Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $59.21, +2.94% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
SU66.2273.5769.7041.93Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $68.68, -3.58% chg], after a 13 day DZ)
STO37.3873.3366.1037.58Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $39.07, -4.33% chg], after a 7 day DZ)
CVX97.8671.5865.6638.02Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-23 at $100.73, -2.85% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
BHP83.3371.3954.5933.94
TOT85.1270.1565.5736.78Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $87.15, -2.33% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
QCOM46.9970.1568.7049.28Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-30 at $48.54, -3.19% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ORCL22.9164.5073.5168.26
ADBE43.5359.4176.8768.34
INFY46.7756.1570.1160.17
CTSH34.8751.6364.7071.69
DELL23.4749.8275.1281.21
GRMN52.8737.1951.3277.99

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
UBS23.6018.6321.5417.81Accumulation Zone (for 6 days)
BC14.0022.2529.8231.01Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-03 at $14.00, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
WFMI28.1024.7530.0732.73Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, -2.06% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
SBUX17.7525.9852.5960.04
GOL14.3327.3435.6532.48
ERJ34.9827.7822.1221.72Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
BDK62.3427.8832.0630.11
GFI12.5129.2533.6221.96
DB102.7730.5025.209.52
WHR70.7532.0729.1734.76
GE30.4632.4229.1727.47
IBN34.9636.2630.3912.65
SWK47.1838.4342.0926.54
DEO77.2439.0728.0331.72
BA78.1239.4339.6523.31
GS170.5841.2040.8822.58
PAYX33.6341.3137.8126.70
ABV66.3242.6329.0211.83
HDB90.6842.8733.8122.52
WBK103.4643.3938.8328.62
CHA63.0346.0338.5920.44
DOW39.3746.2947.8225.00
CHL72.9750.0537.0624.48
XOM85.7151.9441.3120.30
TEF84.3056.3240.7827.36


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
JNJ 66.76 0.25 0.38% 2.47% 0.20% -1.68% 1.29% 7.28% -1.40% 5.28%
WMT 57.77 0.57 1.00% 2.43% 2.43% 1.40% 23.18% 15.79% 20.68% 16.78%
HPQ 46.24 -0.01 -0.02% 1.18% -1.01% -4.23% -7.17% -2.86% -8.33% 0.94%
CAT 82.42 0.09 0.11% 1.13% -2.21% -0.40% 16.69% 12.60% 14.38% 5.48%
GM 17.58 0.14 0.80% 0.92% -15.76% -21.38% -27.98% -24.22% -38.55% -42.36%
PG 65.41 0.05 0.08% 0.52% -2.17% -1.86% -9.54% -1.42% -11.03% 3.04%
IBM 127.84 0.48 0.38% 0.41% 1.07% 4.76% 22.11% 11.91% 20.80% 19.99%
GE 30.46 0.05 0.16% 0.20% -5.99% -8.20% -17.14% -8.80% -17.52% -18.66%
MMM 76.23 -0.02 -0.03% 0.08% -3.57% -1.70% -7.83% -2.88% -7.27% -13.80%
VZ 37.36 -0.50 -1.32% -0.05% -4.45% -3.96% -13.54% 2.95% -13.30% -13.14%
T 38.78 -1.12 -2.81% -0.13% -4.27% -2.69% -5.41% 10.61% 1.31% -4.32%
HD 27.09 -0.07 -0.26% -0.70% -6.17% -7.76% 3.75% 0.00% -4.91% -30.91%
MRK 38.35 0.18 0.47% -0.70% -4.17% -1.62% -33.15% -12.96% -34.75% -26.45%
DD 46.64 -0.40 -0.85% -0.77% -5.78% -6.16% 6.63% -0.09% -0.47% -12.17%
MCD 57.56 -0.99 -1.69% -0.95% -4.78% -5.44% -0.93% 8.28% -3.79% 12.97%
C 21.42 -0.04 -0.19% -1.11% -6.83% -16.82% -25.93% -7.23% -35.21% -60.70%
DIS 33.18 -0.12 -0.36% -1.37% -4.44% -0.33% 4.21% 2.38% 0.42% -5.85%
UTX 69.76 -0.97 -1.37% -1.47% -6.19% -6.51% -7.25% 0.52% -6.90% -1.44%
PFE 19.01 -0.17 -0.89% -1.66% -6.03% -7.36% -17.02% -14.56% -19.28% -31.32%
AIG 36.01 0.14 0.39% -1.67% -7.55% -24.01% -36.04% -22.87% -36.71% -50.43%
CVX 97.86 -1.51 -1.52% -1.73% -4.25% 2.34% 4.71% 12.22% 11.41% 19.01%
AA 39.60 -1.03 -2.54% -1.93% -11.19% 7.35% 9.60% 3.34% 11.58% -4.49%
BAC 33.31 -0.27 -0.80% -2.52% -7.73% -14.52% -17.87% -14.98% -26.74% -34.40%
JPM 41.89 -0.26 -0.62% -2.60% -8.91% -12.73% -0.66% 5.20% -7.34% -19.29%
INTC 22.94 -0.26 -1.12% -2.80% -7.80% -1.33% -9.51% 14.64% -12.61% 2.59%
AXP 44.31 -0.94 -2.08% -3.