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June 3, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Jun 03, 2008

Markets Re-cap

There is a crisis of confidence on Wall Street. Shares of Lehman Brothers (LEH -7.9%), Merrill Lynch (MER -3.0%), and Morgan Stanley (MS -2.6%) were hammered after S&P hit the brokerages with downgrades. The US equity market plunged as a result.

The DJIA (-134.50 -1.06% to 12503.82), S&P 500 (-14.71 -1.05% to 1385.67) and NASDAQ Composite (-31.13 -1.23 to 2491.53) closed well down on the session, but also higher than the intra-day lows.

The sector leader was Energy (XLE +0.59%), which was the only sector that was up. The key losers were the financials (XLF -1.5%) and Technology (XLK -1.4%).

Natural Gas ($XNG +0.8%) was higher, while Computer Networking stocks ($NWK -4.0%) and Airlines ($XAL -3.1%) were weakest.

The higher stocks for the Cara 100 companies were China Telecom (CHA +5.0%), which rebounded off the hammering it took when the Chinese authorities announced a reorganization of the country’s telecommunications industry), Genentech (DNA +4.3%), and Garmin (GRMN +2.9%).

The Cara 100 losers were led by the two big private banks of India, ICICI (IBN -6.2%) and HDFC (HDB -5.4%). Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ -5.3%) and Perdigao (PDA -2.9%) were also weak.

The market General, General Electric (GE) hit a 52-week low of $30.18.

There was nothing of note yesterday on the earnings or M&A fronts.

On the macro-economics front, the Institute for Supply Management reported US manufacturing for May was modestly stronger M/M due to increasing prices, but output was still declining.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed up +$0.41/bbl to 127.76. This morning at 8am ET, the futures were down -$0.50 to 127.20. The European Brent was down -$0.87/bbl to 127.15.

In the morning spot market, at 8:03am ET, prices for precious metals are unremarkable. The Spot prices for Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver (vs yesterday in brackets) are: 892.92 (893.46); 429 (429); 2011 (2008); and 16.73 (16.86), respectively.

The Euro futures were trading a tad stronger early today at 1.5580, about the same as at this point yesterday.

The DJIA near futures are up slightly (+12) to 12516, but on the rise.


Comments & Outlook

In my Week In Review I had noted the over-bought price of PDA ($63.80). PDA dropped -2.9% yesterday. I anticipate more softness.

I also opined that Brunswick Corp (BC) might be nearing a Buy point, if extreme weakness set in, but the stock was down just -1.4% yesterday to $13.51. More weakness is required before I have any buying interest.

I suppose the precious metals rallied sharply at 8:30am yesterday after the banks and broker-dealers received ratings downgrades, leading traders to figure the Fed Head and the Treasury Secretary would come to their rescue with yet another liquidity pump.

Why are bankers forecasting a higher $USD? They know their situation is dire, which will require more central bank help and they know how that story ends.

Although I have opined that precious metals would come under pressure from a brief rally in the US Dollar, I have to admit that I figured on a longer time between when the banks first went to the well for capital and the second time.

Now, today we have Barclays bank (BCS -3.5% to $28.87) stating a need to raise capital. Tell me that the Barclays management didn’t know that back on May 7 when the stock was about $37.50. If you do, I won’t believe it.

What the market needs is for the Fed to state that the previous rescue plan was all she wrote. No mas! Let the weakest of these banks go down and the strongest buy whatever’s left. Isn’t that the essence of a free market?

Bring it on. It’s about time.

Btw, LEH is no longer in the Cara 100 list, but the Knobias data service still includes it in the portfolio. I need to inform them of the change I made some months ago.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CHA 71.160 +3.360 +5 0K
DNA 73.950 +3.080 +4.3 8.9M
GRMN 50.570 +1.920 +3.9 2.9M
IMO 59.480 +1.430 +2.5 431K
BHP 85.550 +1.210 +1.4 3.3M
PBR 71.350 +0.850 +1.2 11.7M
GG 40.580 +0.440 +1.1 6.9M
PTR 144.100 +1.550 +1.1 1.2M
TCK 50.010 +0.460 +0.9 767.7K
CHL 74.460 +0.670 +0.9 2.2M
TGP 29.450 +0.200 +0.7 80.9K
SLW 14.580 +0.080 +0.6 2.2M
CCJ 41.160 +0.210 +0.5 3.7M
TM 102.510 +0.460 +0.5 424K
SU 68.560 +0.270 +0.4 3.6M
RIO 39.930 +0.150 +0.4 22.2M
ECA 90.650 +0.280 +0.3 3.2M
CEO 177.810 +0.520 +0.3 513.4K
WAG 36.110 +0.090 +0.2 6M
CVX 99.370 +0.220 +0.2 11.6M
NUE 74.880 +0.080 +0.1 5.2M
INTC 23.200 +0.020 +0.1 50.6M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
LEH 33.830 -2.980 -8.1 39.7M
IBN 35.390 -2.340 -6.2 6.5M
HDB 94.370 -5.380 -5.4 855.2K
ERJ 35.520 -2.000 -5.3 814.8K
WBK 106.590 -4.910 -4.4 19.2K
AET 45.340 -1.820 -3.9 4.6M
NTES 21.880 -0.870 -3.8 1.2M
BMY 21.980 -0.810 -3.6 13.4M
SNDK 27.340 -0.970 -3.4 5.7M
GOL 14.880 -0.480 -3.1 552.3K
WHR 71.390 -2.290 -3.1 1.3M
PDA 63.800 -1.900 -2.9 83.1K
INFY 47.770 -1.340 -2.7 4.4M
UBS 23.040 -0.620 -2.6 10.9M
BDK 63.060 -1.640 -2.5 876K
OXPS 22.270 -0.570 -2.5 718.2K
ERTS 49.030 -1.170 -2.3 3.4M
GS 172.340 -4.070 -2.3 9.8M
PAYX 33.790 -0.760 -2.2 4.2M
BBD 23.490 -0.520 -2.2 7.4M
TEF 84.170 -1.860 -2.2 410.6K
CTSH 34.520 -0.760 -2.2 5.3M
DEO 77.030 -1.590 -2 753K
CHRW 63.210 -1.290 -2 1.6M
GSK 43.650 -0.880 -2 1.3M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ATVI 34.000 33.570 -0.180 -0.53 2.77M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ERJ 35.360 35.520 -2.000 -5.33 814.77K
BC 13.351 13.510 -0.190 -1.39 3.02M
GE 30.180 30.410 -0.310 -1.01 50.50M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
DNA 73.950 +4.3 8.9M +179
IBN 35.390 -6.2 6.5M +148
HDB 94.370 -5.4 855.2K +121
LEH 33.830 -8.1 39.7M +95
UBS 23.040 -2.6 10.9M +85
BC 13.510 -1.4 3M +77
PAYX 33.790 -2.2 4.2M +47
COST 70.330 -1.4 7.1M +45
INFY 47.770 -2.7 4.4M +45
AET 45.340 -3.9 4.6M +43
DELL 22.790 -1.2 37.5M +38
KB 61.800 -1 765.4K +35
BDK 63.060 -2.5 876K +35
GS 172.340 -2.3 9.8M +34
CCL 39.280 -1.9 5.7M +33
CCJ 41.160 +0.5 3.7M +32
WAG 36.110 +0.2 6M +28
DB 104.500 -1.9 622K +24
SWK 47.460 -1.7 708K +19
TS 61.140 -0.3 2.4M +18
TEF 84.170 -2.2 410.6K +15
CSCO 26.350 -1.4 59M +14
IMO 59.480 +2.5 431K +13
TT 46.230 -0.4 2.6M +13
ERJ 35.520 -5.3 814.8K +12

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
GS Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Buy
CTSH Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
DELL Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Buy
PBR Goldman Sachs --- --- Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
GGB Morgan Stanley --- --- Overweight Equal-weight
LEH Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Underperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
COST Piper Jaffray --- 77.00 Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT61.4292.5161.6053.90
ECA90.6588.8865.9548.01Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $94.31, -3.88% chg], after a 8 day DZ)
GGB49.6685.6288.2559.92Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, +0.14% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PBR71.3584.5574.4254.73Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $72.02, -0.93% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
ATVI33.5780.0386.4670.42Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
RIO39.9379.7958.1042.69Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-21 at $41.78, -4.43% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
PDA63.8079.6470.4063.39Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-02 at $63.80, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
RIMM137.0278.9066.8353.83
ABB32.2578.1073.6348.85Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-23 at $32.76, -1.56% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
WMT57.2078.0469.7554.73
SU68.5677.1472.3055.70Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $68.68, -0.17% chg], after a 12 day DZ)
EXC87.2876.8064.0347.20Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, -1.73% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NUE74.8875.1155.8545.49
VCP33.4174.9164.8165.12
STO38.4874.3966.4945.38Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $39.07, -1.51% chg], after a 7 day DZ)
TS61.1473.2178.6066.30Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $59.21, +3.26% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
CVX99.3773.0472.7849.20Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-23 at $100.73, -1.35% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
TT46.2372.9957.9743.90
QCOM47.7072.8976.5356.51Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-30 at $48.54, -1.73% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NKE67.1472.5955.5651.94
BHP85.5572.0957.8740.56
TOT86.5170.3866.6947.24Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $87.15, -0.73% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
LLTC36.6365.7670.3055.30
ORCL22.6865.1571.2162.54
ADBE43.4659.6273.3167.50
DNA73.9547.8654.9577.32
DELL22.7946.4871.1476.37
GRMN50.5735.4745.9971.25

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
UBS23.0416.0219.328.71Accumulation Zone (for 5 days)
BC13.5120.1128.4710.87Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
WFMI28.4823.7534.2036.97Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, -0.73% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
JCP39.8425.4742.2932.79
SBUX17.9326.9753.8366.10
BDK63.0627.3134.2734.23
KSS44.3127.8444.8536.10
GOL14.8828.9238.3740.38
GFI12.8830.8835.4428.37
ERJ35.5231.8425.2823.81
DB104.5032.0227.8110.88
GE30.4133.3028.5624.04
IBN35.3936.3629.3713.40
SWK47.4638.0943.4429.19
DEO77.0339.0429.0028.30
GS172.3441.6141.4525.45
PAYX33.7941.9341.0328.09
HDB94.3744.5335.0627.90
ABV67.8646.6136.2014.77
DOW39.8448.9150.0429.51
CHL74.4651.9937.6528.38
TEF84.1756.8841.3225.19
XOM87.8157.0045.7127.78
NTES21.8859.8052.9028.98


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
T 39.90 0.00 0.00% 3.56% -0.42% -0.57% -2.68% 14.56% 4.42% -1.55%
HPQ 46.25 -0.81 -1.72% 2.87% -2.20% -4.36% -7.15% -3.18% -9.60% 0.96%
WMT 57.20 -0.54 -0.94% 2.60% 0.28% -0.52% 21.96% 15.35% 19.42% 15.63%
IBM 127.36 -2.06 -1.59% 2.54% -0.36% 3.39% 21.65% 11.86% 21.09% 19.54%
JNJ 66.51 -0.23 -0.34% 2.45% -0.25% -2.56% 0.91% 7.34% -1.82% 4.89%
VZ 37.86 -0.61 -1.59% 2.10% -2.35% -4.37% -12.38% 4.24% -12.38% -11.97%
C 21.46 -0.43 -1.96% 1.61% -7.18% -18.68% -25.80% -9.49% -35.56% -60.63%
HD 27.16 -0.20 -0.73% 1.46% -6.67% -9.83% 4.02% 2.30% -4.90% -30.73%
MCD 58.55 -0.77 -1.30% 1.42% -3.27% -3.94% 0.77% 8.21% 0.14% 14.92%
UTX 70.73 -0.31 -0.44% 1.03% -4.37% -5.82% -5.96% 0.31% -5.40% -0.07%
CAT 82.33 -0.31 -0.38% 0.96% -1.64% -0.57% 16.57% 13.83% 14.51% 5.36%
AA 40.63 0.04 0.10% 0.94% -5.84% 12.52% 12.46% 9.40% 11.71% -2.00%
MMM 76.25 -1.31 -1.69% 0.58% -3.06% -2.93% -7.81% -2.74% -8.42% -13.77%
DIS 33.30 -0.30 -0.89% 0.21% -4.61% -0.57% 4.59% 2.75% 0.45% -5.51%
PG 65.36 -0.69 -1.04% 0.14% -2.08% -2.16% -9.61% -1.24% -11.68% 2.96%
GE 30.41 -0.31 -1.01% -0.07% -5.35% -8.79% -17.27% -8.24% -20.58% -18.80%
JPM 42.15 -0.85 -1.98% -0.40% -9.41% -13.38% -0.05% 3.69% -7.61% -18.79%
BA 81.15 -1.62 -1.96% -0.41% -4.72% -5.30% -6.31% -1.98% -12.31% -18.71%
AXP 45.25 -1.10 -2.37% -0.44% -7.05% -10.22% -11.34% 6.97% -23.28% -30.46%
MSFT 27.80 -0.52 -1.84% -0.89% -7.30% -4.92% -21.07% 2.21% -17.26% -9.12%
INTC 23.20 0.02 0.09% -0.90% -7.20% -1.61% -8.48% 16.17% -11.04% 3.76%
GM 17.44 0.34 1.99% -0.91% -15.67% -24.83% -28.55% -25.09% -41.54% -42.82%
BAC 33.58 -0.43 -1.26% -1.03% -7.16% -15.61% -17.21% -15.50% -27.21% -33.87%
DD 47.04 -0.87 -1.82% -1.22% -5.22% -5.66% 7.54% 1.34% 1.93% -11.41%
CVX 99.37 0.22 0.22% -1.35% -1.01% 4.25% 6.32% 14.67% 13.22% 20.84%
MRK 38.17 -0.79 -2.03% -1.47% -4.58% -3.05% -33.47% -13.84% -35.70% -26.79%
PFE 19.18 -0.18 -0.93%