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June 26, 2008

Daily Report for Thu, Jun 26, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Traders actually were more nervous after the do-nothing say-nothing FOMC decision yesterday afternoon. But after some whipsaw action, the Financials and the $USD got hammered and the commodities (oil and gold) started to lift.

At the end of the session, the DJIA (+4.40 +0.04% to 11811.80), S&P 500 (+7.68 +0.58% to 1321.97) and NASDAQ Composite (+32.98 +1.39% to 2401.26) all finished higher, but in, as I say, ‘nervous’ (but high-volume) trading.

The leading sectors were safe-haven plays Consumer Staples (XLP +2.3%) and Utilities (XLU +1.2%). The losers were the Boeing (-6.9%) and United Technologies (UTX -3.1%)-led Industrials (XLI -0.7%) and Financials (XLF -0.2%).

For the Cara 100, the leaders were NOK +5.8%, PBR +4.1% and VIP +3.7%. The losers were BA and UTX. Boeing ran into a dubious sell-side analyst’s downgrade.

The problems at (Cara 100) Gold Fields (GFI) continue. This is more bad stuff in what I think is a good company.

At the close yesterday, the long 30-yar US Bond ($USB) dropped a bit (-0.14%) to 113.97. The yield on the T-bills dropped to 1.760, which shows pressure in the credit market.

Yesterday, $GOLD closed down -$9.30/oz to 882.30, but the Fed has given them some ammunition in the afternoon and prices are on the rise. This morning (8:48am ET), the spot prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are flying: 909.32, 466.5, 2065, and 17.28 respectively.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) is up +$1.00/bbl to 135.55. It closed yesterday at 134.55, down -$2.45/bbl.

This morning the $USD has fallen hard to 72.955, and the DJIA futures are off -113 to 11694. Looks like a tough day ahead for the Bulls.

Overnight there was not much action either way in the Asia-Pacific equity markets. In Europe this morning there is a broad sell-off from -1.63% to -1.86% in the FTSE, CAC and DAX.

Research In Motion (RIMM), Oracle (ORCL) and Nike (NKE) were out with earnings reports following the close yesterday. Lots of action there. A real spin cycle.

India’s largest lender, the State Bank of India, now appears likely to raise lending rates by +50 basis points following the Reserve Bank of India’s move to increase the cash reserve ratio as well as the repo rate by +50 bp. These are reasons why the Indian Cara 100 banks, ICICI (IBN) and HDFC (HDB) have been hammered down since the beginning of May.


Comments & Outlook

In case you missed last weekend’s Week In Review #25 June 22. I wrote that “Value Line reported on Boeing, one of America’s top lobbyists in Washington.”
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

I like the company. Note that Boeing is in the Cara 100.

The company’s financial position is strengthening. Earnings are high and will go higher, as will the dividends. The cash flow is solid given that the production slots are 100% full and will be for a few years. What’s not to like?

The stock has come off its 52-week high last July 25 at $107.83, and from the lows on March 13 of $71.58 (where there was a Buy Alert) has crept back to its current close at $75.83. There is still a possibility the company will win the large USAF contract to build flying tankers.

I believe there will be lower prices ahead due mostly to the broad market decline and also to an event like the government still denying the USAF contract. But, this is a good company and if you buy the stock at the right time, your profits going forward will be large.

Yesterday, Boeing (BA) pulled down the DJIA. The stock closed at $69.64 after hitting a 52-week low of 69.16. That’s a price not seen since 4Q05, and represents a technical support level going back to the resistance at that level that held in 4Q00, and was broken in 4Q05.

I believe that the price in the 60’s is low enough to buy the stock. As there will be likely more tough days ahead for the Bulls in this cycle, there will also be lower prices ahead for BA, in all likelihood. But there is nothing wrong with taking a series of put writes with 60’s strike prices if you want to accumulate the stock.

Two factors come to mind: (i) the high oil prices will likely break down soon, which would benefit Boeing as sales contracts would then be under less pressure of being cancelled, (ii) I made a point recently that the strongest companies (ie, in terms of fundamental metrics) may be the first ones taken down by the smart hands so that during the ensuing market Bear those powerful gnomes are buying large blocks into weakness, and those are the first stocks that pop up in the next Bull, and (iii) the airplane manufacturing industry is hurting, not just Boeing. Yesterday, (Cara 100) Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) also hit a 52-week low ($28.21). Yes, planes are being mothballed, but those are the old fuel-inefficient ones. And the tight credit conditions are not going to affect the purchasers for more than a year or two. So the problems are not just Boeing’s, and they will revert to normal at some point anyway.

My remarks in the WIR hold water. This is a powerful and well-managed company that has all its production slots filled for several years. The stock is one you want to be buying here in the 60’s, not back in July 2007 ($107.83 high) when HB&B were all over you to buy it from them.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
NOK 26.100 +1.440 +5.8 26.8M
PBR 68.830 +2.690 +4.1 21.9M
VIP 30.820 +1.110 +3.7 2.8M
MBT 80.810 +2.770 +3.5 1.3M
SBUX 17.110 +0.540 +3.3 12.2M
GGB 23.900 +0.740 +3.2 5.5M
UBS 22.730 +0.700 +3.2 8.6M
AMAT 20.610 +0.630 +3.2 23.8M
CCL 35.530 +1.050 +3 5.9M
CHA 57.560 +1.680 +3 282.2K
BC 12.050 +0.350 +3 3M
WBK 98.860 +2.820 +2.9 13.9K
NTES 21.410 +0.600 +2.9 1.3M
GFI 11.600 +0.320 +2.8 8.3M
RIO 36.680 +1.010 +2.8 29.3M
PTR 135.440 +3.670 +2.8 1.3M
IBN 32.670 +0.820 +2.6 5.4M
MFC 36.670 +0.920 +2.6 1.2M
COST 70.890 +1.630 +2.4 7.7M
ADBE 42.340 +0.960 +2.3 6M
TEF 80.840 +1.820 +2.3 463.4K
KSS 42.050 +0.940 +2.3 7.1M
BDK 60.320 +1.340 +2.3 1M
CEO 171.000 +3.710 +2.2 771.5K
DELL 23.550 +0.510 +2.2 20.9M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
BA 69.640 -5.150 -6.9 21M
UTX 66.020 -2.140 -3.1 10.9M
BHP 83.070 -1.980 -2.3 5.1M
SU 59.650 -1.200 -2 7.7M
ECA 88.460 -1.640 -1.8 4.1M
STO 36.280 -0.490 -1.3 3M
ABX 40.460 -0.490 -1.2 6.8M
SLW 12.890 -0.150 -1.2 3M
CCJ 38.540 -0.350 -0.9 2.2M
EXC 90.160 -0.760 -0.8 3.8M
ERTS 45.830 -0.310 -0.7 3.7M
ABB 29.650 -0.190 -0.6 9.8M
ERJ 28.940 -0.170 -0.6 1.9M
TGP 26.820 -0.150 -0.6 62.7K
MICC 112.420 -0.170 -0.2 786.6K
YHOO 22.010 -0.030 -0.1 19.5M
GG 41.620 -0.050 -0.1 8.2M
WAG 33.950 -0.040 -0.1 8.4M
IMO 54.520 -0.050 -0.1 417.5K

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
BA 69.160 69.640 -5.150 -6.89 20.98M
ERJ 28.210 28.940 -0.170 -0.58 1.91M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
BA 69.640 -6.9 21M +213
STO 36.280 -1.3 3M +118
ABB 29.650 -0.6 9.8M +102
RIMM 142.336 +1.3 30.5M +93
ORCL 22.550 +1.4 60.8M +83
UTX 66.020 -3.1 10.9M +79
HDB 77.000 +1.6 1.1M +78
SU 59.650 -2 7.7M +65
BBBY 28.570 +1 8.2M +48
GFI 11.600 +2.8 8.3M +45
PBR 68.830 +4.1 21.9M +44
IBN 32.670 +2.6 5.4M +42
CEO 171.000 +2.2 771.5K +41
RY 46.510 +1.1 968.7K +40
NOK 26.100 +5.8 26.8M +40
WAG 33.950 -0.1 8.4M +39
SLW 12.890 -1.2 3M +38
JCP 37.680 +2.2 7.4M +36
ERJ 28.940 -0.6 1.9M +36
BBD 21.420 +1.9 12M +36
NKE 65.970 +0 4.6M +36
MICC 112.420 -0.2 786.6K +35
GG 41.620 -0.1 8.2M +34
COST 70.890 +2.4 7.7M +30
CHRW 57.380 +0.7 2.3M +27

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Canaccord Adams --- 23.00 Sell Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ADBE Morgan Stanley --- --- Equal-weight Overweight

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
BA Goldman Sachs --- 60.00 Neutral Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
YHOO Thomas Weisel --- --- Market Weight Underweight


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ATVI35.4382.3378.9553.39Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $35.85, -1.17% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
SYT63.0082.1757.2145.26Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $65.11, -3.24% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ECA88.4680.6653.7639.62
TS68.3880.2081.7673.18Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
GGB23.9079.5061.6143.21
WMT58.1278.4467.9153.59
RIMM142.3477.8468.0756.59Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $144.56, -1.54% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
EXC90.1675.4571.7755.63
PBR68.8373.2560.4057.85
NUE77.1870.1361.7353.80
DELL23.5551.8570.3850.36

At least one RSI value <30:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
BC12.058.4320.5638.60Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-25 at $12.05, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
GOL12.5719.8830.2238.65Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-06-16 at $12.78, -1.64% chg], after a 4 day AZ)
UBS22.7320.5725.2645.57Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-24 at $22.03, +3.18% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
WFMI25.8922.3122.4535.83Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-25 at $25.89, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BDK60.3223.2435.0354.05Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $59.66, +1.11% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
SBUX17.1123.9343.4744.68
DB91.5324.5019.6731.40Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-25 at $91.53, +0.00% chg], after a 6 day AZ)
GE27.9925.5022.8537.74Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-25 at $27.99, +0.00% chg], after a 9 day AZ)
BMY20.3225.7536.7052.27Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-23 at $19.70, +3.15% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
CCL35.5327.0930.7945.41
GFI11.6027.9832.8553.67Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $11.15, +4.04% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
ERJ28.9428.8616.3318.03Accumulation Zone (for 17 days)
SNDK20.9929.0024.7319.90Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
JCP37.6829.3835.5046.23Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $37.25, +1.15% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WAG33.9529.6533.3223.93
WHR65.5830.9323.4939.57
AET40.5232.0629.6315.60
DEO73.8734.2221.5439.64
BA69.6434.7125.8720.43
HDB77.0034.7126.8525.98
PAYX32.0935.2227.4738.25
YHOO22.0136.5323.2524.24
TGP26.8237.2831.4023.13
UTX66.0238.2631.2824.97
DOW36.7739.3432.6623.33
SLW12.8940.1233.3224.18
PG63.4941.3729.9732.56
VCP27.3549.3129.8212.74


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MRK 36.98 -0.05 -0.14% 6.08% 3.50% -4.35% -35.54% -17.22% -38.10% -23.50%
KO 54.10 0.73 1.37% 1.77% -5.32% -5.81% -11.44% -11.90% -14.41% 4.50%
INTC 22.65 0.24 1.07% 1.66% 3.85% -3.49% -10.65% 1.71% -17.06% -3.53%
JNJ 65.28 0.56 0.87% 1.30% 0.12% 0.62% -0.96% 1.13% -3.82% 6.82%
WMT 58.12 0.80 1.40% 0.78% -0.68% 1.80% 23.92% 9.56% 19.24% 21.54%
PFE 17.88 0.19 1.07% 0.62% 1.88% -7.36% -21.96% -13.96% -23.36% -29.61%
IBM 124.58 1.12 0.91% 0.34% 1.08% -3.83% 19.00% 5.60% 11.58% 18.53%
CVX 99.36 0.72 0.73% 0.10% -0.06% -1.06% 6.31% 17.68% 5.17% 19.78%
XOM 87.60 0.68 0.78% -0.26% -1.14% -3.13% -6.32% 2.82% -6.47% 6.35%
MCD 58.05 1.03 1.81% -0.27% -1.19% -1.09% -0.09% 3.29% -3.75% 13.16%
MSFT 28.35 0.62 2.24% -0.39% 4.54% 0.60% -19.51% -2.71% -22.50% -3.87%
GE 27.99 0.40 1.45% -0.78% -6.17% -8.38% -23.86% -24.84% -25.42% -26.75%
VZ 35.59 0.18 0.51% -1.08% -2.95% -5.77% -17.63% -3.55% -20.54% -14.24%
DIS 32.49 0.27 0.84% -1.40% -2.34% -4.05% 2.04% 1.28% -2.26% -4.61%
HPQ 45.60 0.56 1.24% -2.12% -1.89% -1.98% -8.45% -5.51% -12.84% 1.47%
JPM 37.91 0.19 0.50% -2.14% 2.10% -11.55% -10.10% -17.69% -15.44% -21.61%
T 34.47 0.20 0.58% -2.21% -4.62% -12.76% -15.93% -9.29% -16.94% -11.80%
PG 63.49 0.63 1.00% -2.32% -4.09% -2.13% -12.20% -8.70% -14.13% 3.95%
MMM 72.57 0.14 0.19% -2.33% -3.59% -5.63% -12.26% -8.12% -15.87% -15.86%
UTX 66.02 -2.14 -3.14% -3.01% -0.95% -5.99% -12.22% -5.90% -15.55% -7.37%
AXP 40.94 -1.16 -2.76% -3.49% -3.87% -11.29% -19.79% -13.83% -23.10% -33.75%
CAT 76.58 -0.06 -0.08% -3.91% -2.98% -7.95% 8.42% -0.08% 5.34% -5.11%
HD 25.47 0.16 0.63% -4.07% -1.70% -7.15% -2.45% -11.44% -5.70% -34.99%
DD 44.11 0.15 0.34% -5.38% -3.88% -7.39% 0.85% -6.74% -2.48% -14.27%
AA 36.94 0.05 0.14% -5.52% -6.05% -11.14% 2.24% 3.36% -0.19% -6.60%
AIG 29.74 -0.09 -0.30% -5.65% -10.58% -14.81% -47.18% -35.08% -50.42% -58.18%
BAC 26.61 -0.01 -0.04% -6.20% -7.73% -21.43% -34.39% -35.05% -37.06% -45.53%
BA 69.64 -5.15 -6.89% -6.71% -5.01% -15.21% -19.60% -8.25% -22.64% -27.13%
C 18.85 0.00 0.00% -7.60% -1.87% -12.73% -34.82% -19.51% -39.15% -63.53%
GM 12.81 -0.38 -2.88% -13.97% -20.53% -25.31% -47.52% -37.05% -51.73% -64.68%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover t