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June 21, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Jun 21, 2008

Markets Re-cap

On Friday, the jump in crude prices ($WTIC +$2.76/bbl to 135.36) hammered equities on a strong volume day. Autos ($DJUSAU -7.2%), Airliners ($XAL -7.2%), and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.9%) crushed stock prices.

The DJIA (-220.40 -1.83% to 11842.69), S&P 500 (-24.90 -1.85% to 1397.93), and NASDAQ Composite (-55.97 -2.27% to 2406.09) plunged for the third day in the past four. The major indexes are now at or close to 3-month lows.

The run-up in oil prices again Friday, stopped the Automakers ($DJUSAU -7.2%) and grounded the airlines (UAUA -11.7%, NWA -11.4%, and DAL -11.0%) with $XAL also falling -7.2%. Since the beginning of February, the US airline stocks have been crushed.

Ford Motor dropped -8.1% to $5.81 on news the company will cut Q3 and Q4 production by -25% and -14%, respectively. The US economy is in such bad shape that the automakers are unable to sell cars and trucks.

Financials were hurt after Moody's cut credit ratings of MBIA (MBI) and Ambak (ABK).

There was a safe-haven response to the falling equity prices as the 30-year US Treasury Bond ($USB) gained a bit (+0.18%) to 113.45. The T-Bill yield is now down to 1.800, which is a big drop in a few weeks as traders are becoming more concerned with central bankers and credit ratings agencies making ominous statements about the Financials.

Credit worries, oil prices and the tapped-out consumer are hitting the equity market from all sides. Equity in companies and in their stocks is in fact being quickly destroyed.

The US Dollar responded to the renewed speculation in oil prices. The $USD (-0.59% to 73.05) fell again against the Euro (+0.64% to 1.5604) and Yen (+0.70% to 93.25).

$GOLD, however, remained largely unchanged (-$0.50/oz to 903.70), but did have a bullish week after opening about $875 on Monday.

There were no winning industries of note on this sell-off day. There were plenty of losers other than those already noted. Retailers ($RLX -3.3%) were especially hard hit, as were the Papers (-3.3%).

Of the Cara 100 extreme performers, there were 8 winners, with goldminers GFI (+2.5%), GG (+1.3%) and ABX (+0.9%) ending with a small gain. Brazil’s aircraft maker ERJ recovered a bit (+2.2%). The key losers were SNDK (-9.7%) after a ratings downgrade, plus GGB -6.0%, IBN -5.7%, GOL -5.3%, UBS -5.1% and PTR -5.0%, all losing more than -5% on the day.

The DJIA futures closed the week at 12030, but the index is testing 12750, which technical analysts are saying is another crucial area of anticipated support.


Comments & Outlook

I’ll try to get the Week In Review completed by mid-day Sunday. The operative word is “try”.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
GFI 11.150 +0.270 +2.5 6.5M
ERJ 30.500 +0.650 +2.2 2.4M
GG 40.900 +0.530 +1.3 6.1M
ABX 40.430 +0.360 +0.9 8.9M
KO 53.660 +0.300 +0.6 16.6M
TOT 80.230 +0.410 +0.5 1.9M
CCJ 37.260 +0.190 +0.5 2.8M
TGP 27.380 +0.050 +0.2 79.9K

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SNDK 21.160 -2.280 -9.7 20.8M
GGB 24.220 -1.550 -6 6.3M
IBN 33.540 -2.030 -5.7 4.4M
GOL 12.790 -0.720 -5.3 719.3K
UBS 21.900 -1.170 -5.1 7.6M
PTR 133.480 -7.010 -5 2M
NTES 21.940 -1.110 -4.8 2.4M
CTSH 34.970 -1.740 -4.7 8.5M
BC 11.870 -0.580 -4.7 12.8M
INFY 44.310 -2.050 -4.4 4.3M
HDB 79.770 -3.690 -4.4 1.1M
TM 97.710 -4.440 -4.3 872.9K
SBUX 17.230 -0.760 -4.2 13.1M
DB 91.090 -3.870 -4.1 749K
KSS 43.390 -1.810 -4 8M
CHRW 58.880 -2.420 -3.9 2.7M
ATVI 35.850 -1.450 -3.9 4.7M
DELL 23.400 -0.940 -3.9 37.7M
OXPS 23.040 -0.900 -3.8 864.4K
CCL 35.470 -1.370 -3.7 9.5M
QCOM 48.530 -1.830 -3.6 37.5M
BHP 83.620 -3.150 -3.6 2.9M
RIO 34.810 -1.270 -3.5 24.8M
WBK 97.100 -3.540 -3.5 18.8K
TGT 49.980 -1.820 -3.5 15M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
TS 70.690 67.830 -0.550 -0.80 7.27M
EXC 91.320 89.570 -0.880 -0.97 4.38M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
BC 11.250 11.870 -0.580 -4.66 12.83M
DB 90.700 91.090 -3.870 -4.08 748.99K
GE 27.268 27.380 -0.530 -1.90 89.67M
BMY 19.430 19.570 -0.350 -1.76 14.63M
NOK 23.610 24.290 -0.150 -0.61 26.42M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
BC 11.870 -4.7 12.8M +365
TS 67.830 -0.8 7.3M +182
SNDK 21.160 -9.7 20.8M +152
NTES 21.940 -4.8 2.4M +110
GGB 24.220 -6 6.3M +95
HDB 79.770 -4.4 1.1M +93
PG 63.160 -2.7 21.5M +90
CCL 35.470 -3.7 9.5M +79
CTSH 34.970 -4.7 8.5M +76
DIS 31.940 -2.9 21.3M +72
PTR 133.480 -5 2M +71
ORCL 22.100 -2.6 52.6M +69
WAG 35.070 -1 9M +69
CHRW 58.880 -3.9 2.7M +68
ERJ 30.500 +2.2 2.4M +67
QCOM 48.530 -3.6 37.5M +65
JNJ 64.060 -0.9 16.4M +61
RY 46.800 -2.8 964.6K +59
ERTS 46.940 -3.1 5.2M +57
TGT 49.980 -3.5 15M +55
CHA 55.810 -2.7 407.9K +51
AET 40.950 -2.2 6.6M +49
UTX 68.800 -0 8.8M +48
ADBE 40.550 -3.5 8.4M +48
HBC 78.970 -1.4 2.2M +47

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
TOT Goldman Sachs --- --- Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
TS Smith Barney --- --- Hold Sell
CTSH Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral
SNDK Smith Barney 35.00 27.00 Buy Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
UBS CSFB --- --- Outperform Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ATVI35.8589.9187.4757.81Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $35.85, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
RIMM144.5683.9369.5765.18Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $144.56, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
SYT64.5882.1066.0256.87Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $65.11, -0.81% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
TS67.8378.3083.0974.22Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
WMT56.2677.4351.7428.72
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
PDA57.3474.6453.6937.37
ECA89.1974.0360.5740.38
COST68.7372.8546.4439.96
EXC89.5771.0966.2255.18
NUE75.5670.2154.9545.09

At least one RSI value <30:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
BC11.8718.5419.6923.81Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
SBUX17.2319.2446.1137.05
UBS21.9019.4320.7427.71Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
WFMI26.3220.4125.7035.42Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $26.57, -0.94% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GOL12.7922.0230.9039.42Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-16 at $12.78, +0.08% chg], after a 4 day AZ)
JCP36.8823.2933.8933.64Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $37.25, -0.99% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BDK58.5024.0923.4535.34Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $59.66, -1.94% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BMY19.5724.3825.9526.14Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
KSS43.3924.5039.6942.70
DB91.0924.6515.9016.72Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
ERJ30.5026.2819.4726.67Accumulation Zone (for 14 days)
GE27.3827.3415.8613.28Accumulation Zone (for 7 days)
GFI11.1527.6624.9132.03Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $11.15, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
CCL35.4727.9431.6439.44
SNDK21.1629.5627.9517.51Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
WHR66.0031.6427.5839.17
IBN33.5431.9927.2932.42
HDB79.7734.8924.2225.92
TM97.7135.1536.8927.76
AET40.9535.6930.4614.64
NOK24.2935.7224.2620.30
DEO73.2036.4517.8223.92
WBK97.1038.1030.9226.57
YHOO21.9938.5320.6110.01
TGP27.3840.8034.4725.78
CSCO24.6441.0439.4728.67
PG63.1641.0628.7019.50
CHA55.8142.2227.9324.55
KO53.6642.4824.9732.12
DOW37.5843.7435.0125.47
GGB24.2244.0223.6810.66
HBC78.9745.0533.8920.00
RY46.8045.3338.7127.22
CHL67.0146.5925.7626.00
TEF79.0847.5027.9422.70
DIS31.9448.7941.6027.08
JNJ64.0650.7238.3028.00
LLTC32.8151.5640.1828.78
VCP28.4152.3036.5714.85
VIP30.2152.9439.8928.49
CEO158.7553.6039.4824.15
IMO55.0557.9744.5027.61
WMT56.2677.4351.7428.72


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BA 75.83 -1.12 -1.46% 0.95% 3.65% -6.85% -12.46% 1.38% -13.03% -21.08%
UTX 68.80 -0.02 -0.03% 0.35% 2.67% -4.23% -8.52% -0.30% -9.95% -4.22%
MRK 35.13 -0.47 -1.32% -1.13% -6.30% -9.99% -38.77% -18.98% -39.99% -28.68%
INTC 22.37 -0.48 -2.10% -1.28% -2.31% -6.32% -11.76% 2.85% -15.30% -6.56%
DD 46.23 -1.17 -2.47% -2.06% -0.19% -4.54% 5.69% 1.72% 4.62% -11.37%
IBM 122.74 -2.28 -1.82% -2.70% -1.76% -1.57% 17.24% 3.73% 12.77% 15.79%
CVX 96.62 -0.24 -0.25% -2.80% -2.89% -5.19% 3.38% 16.12% 4.96% 19.33%
MSFT 28.23 -0.70 -2.42% -2.89% 2.69% -0.84% -19.85% -3.26% -20.52% -5.93%
CAT 79.08 -0.40 -0.50% -2.97% -1.14% -3.82% 11.96% 7.07% 10.59% -2.83%
KO 53.66 0.30 0.56% -3.18% -3.84% -7.91% -12.16% -12.09% -13.84% 4.21%
JNJ 64.06 -0.56 -0.87% -3.33% -2.59% -2.06% -2.81% -2.02% -4.86% 3.26%
PFE 17.33 -0.44 -2.48% -3.67% -3.51% -12.39% -24.36% -15.83% -25.37% -32.59%
HPQ 45.64 -0.95 -2.04% -3.81% -4.18% 1.65% -8.37% -1.85% -10.79% 1.33%
XOM 84.91 -0.88 -1.03% -3.90% -2.17% -8.22% -9.20% -0.11% -7.84% 2.52%
MMM 73.02 -1.10 -1.48% -4.07% -2.46% -4.72% -11.72% -6.36% -13.58% -16.15%
MCD 57.40 -1.19 -2.03% -4.25% 0.79% -1.93% -1.20% 5.48% -2.36% 11.83%
JPM 37.86 -0.79 -2.04% -4.35% -5.56% -12.06% -10.22% -17.70% -12.62% -23.45%
HD 26.25 -0.93 -3.42% -4.65% -3.42% -2.45% 0.54% -6.45% -0.08% -34.42%
WMT 56.26 -1.43 -2.48% -4.93% -3.61% 0.37% 19.96% 5.69% 17.58% 15.79%
PG 63.16 -1.74 -2.68% -4.95% -3.38% -3.75% -12.65% -8.95% -13.70% 1.97%
VZ 35.38 -1.12 -3.07% -5.22% -7.45% -5.58% -18.12% -2.05% -19.26% -16.83%
AA 37.34 -1.78 -4.55% -5.37% -4.79% -8.48% 3.35% 7.67% 5.51% -7.23%
C 19.30 -0.87 -4.31% -5.76% -3.79% -11.14% -33.26% -14.22% -35.43% -63.88%
DIS 31.94 -0.95 -2.89% -5.87% -3.24% -4.97% 0.31% 0.13% -1.21% -6.58%
GE 27.38 -0.53 -1.90% -6.07% -8.79% -11.71% -25.52% -26.97% -25.03% -29.92%
AIG 32.10 -0.97 -2.93% -6.09% -5.39% -15.10% -42.98% -28.70% -43.43% -55.43%
T 34.43 -0.72 -2.05% -6.13% -9.89% -12.12% -16.02% -6.57% -14.48% -12.90%
AXP 41.18 -1.45 -3.40% -7.79% -7.77% -11.17% -19.32% -10.44% -19.30% -33.63%
BAC 27.10 -1.04 -3.70% -9.00% -11.15% -21.97% -33.19% -33.61% -34.56% -45.78%
GM 13.79 -1.00 -6.76% -16.17% -14.98% -25.18% -43.51% -29.28% -47.92% -60.98%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

<
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLE 85.75 -0.88 -1.02% -0.98% -0.31% -2.28% 7.86% 21.10% 10.65% 24.15%
XLU