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June 14, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Jun 14, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Declining oil prices, a so-called "in-line" inflation reading, and a US Dollar rally on Friday triggered a large advance in US equity prices. The Bulls were able to hold the technically important level of 12200 with a late afternoon push.

Basic materials (XLB) and consumer discretionary (XLY) sectors led the way north with gains of +2.49%. By the end of the session, the DJIA (+165.77 +1.37% to 12307.35), S&P 500 (+20.16 +1.50% to 1360.03) and NASDAQ Composite (+50.15 +2.09% to 2454.5) all closed quite strong.

The US Dollar, which has been firming up all week, strengthened substantially after Ireland voted against the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. Subsequently, the price of Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$1.91/bbl to 135.47. $GOLD managed to stay up though (+$1.10/oz) to 873.10.

The 30-year US Treasury Bond ($USB) continued to fall, from $115.11 a week ago to $112.55 at the close Friday, down -0.35% on the day.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up to 4.261 while the T-Bill yield dropped a bit to 1.93.

Consumer Staples were quiet Friday (+0.07%) as most traders were chasing the high beta stocks in the Basic Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. But this was a day where the Broker-Dealers ($XBD +5.12%) and Airline ($XAL +4.25%) industries energized the market. Surprisingly, the major banks did not as $BKX gained just +0.15% on the day.

Cara 100 winners were NTES +9.2%, GS +6.9%, UBS +6.8% and IBKR +5.4%. Losers were KO -3.0% and VCP -2.4%.

At the end of the week, the $USD futures closed at 74.05, with the Euro futures at 1.5350. Precious metal spot prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were: 870.20, 448, 2027, and 16.53.

Crude oil futures closed at 135.07 for West Texas Intermediate and 134.25 for European Brent..

The equity futures closed at 12300 for the DJIA.

The All Ordinaries equities index of Australia closed the week at 5802.8, down about -100 points on the week. Hong Kong closed at 22592.3, down a lot from 24402.2, while Japan’s Nikkei also dropped from 14489.4 to 13973.73.


Comments & Outlook

The Airlines ($XAL) look good to me on a value basis as I feel that oil prices are coming down. But that’s only for a short-term trade. The industry is in need of another round of reorganization and consolidation. But mostly the high fuel costs will mean that more fuel efficient planes are needed, which takes years to develop.

As for the Broker-Dealers ($XBD), I believe that trading volumes and corporate finance fees will decline over the summer months, and then the broad equity market will take its next tumble in September. So, I cannot buy into the notion that their problems are over. Why the group rallied +5.12% on Friday is beyond me. Bull trap maybe?


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
LEH 25.810 +3.110 +13.7 82.4M
NTES 22.990 +1.940 +9.2 1.3M
GS 178.290 +11.540 +6.9 14.3M
UBS 24.670 +1.580 +6.8 6.2M
IBKR 34.420 +1.760 +5.4 468.6K
MICC 115.880 +4.970 +4.5 523.7K
NUE 77.060 +3.140 +4.2 5.3M
ADBE 42.710 +1.720 +4.2 6.3M
IBN 36.650 +1.370 +3.9 2.9M
BHP 82.280 +3.060 +3.9 4.5M
KSS 45.570 +1.690 +3.9 6.5M
AMAT 20.090 +0.730 +3.8 37.4M
WHR 68.520 +2.380 +3.6 1.5M
ORCL 22.630 +0.770 +3.5 31.8M
CTSH 35.750 +1.180 +3.4 5M
JCP 39.470 +1.290 +3.4 4.8M
GOOG 571.510 +18.560 +3.4 6.2M
OXPS 24.130 +0.780 +3.3 768.2K
WBK 104.110 +3.360 +3.3 41.7K
NKE 68.990 +2.210 +3.3 3.4M
BBBY 30.030 +0.940 +3.2 5.7M
COST 70.320 +2.120 +3.1 6.9M
SWK 48.340 +1.450 +3.1 571.8K
INTC 22.660 +0.610 +2.8 43M
DELL 24.420 +0.640 +2.7 25.9M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
KO 55.420 -1.720 -3 30.2M
VCP 31.610 -0.770 -2.4 363.5K
ABV 68.820 -1.180 -1.7 1.4M
CHA 58.160 -0.970 -1.6 195K
PDA 58.760 -0.920 -1.5 368.9K
CEO 167.700 -1.910 -1.1 357.2K
STO 37.310 -0.420 -1.1 1.2M
SU 63.930 -0.650 -1 3.1M
TOT 80.440 -0.630 -0.8 4.2M
SLW 13.400 -0.100 -0.7 1.3M
GRMN 44.910 -0.290 -0.6 2.9M
IMO 56.490 -0.260 -0.5 349K
PTR 129.990 -0.490 -0.4 619.5K
CHL 68.540 -0.210 -0.3 2M
YHOO 23.470 -0.050 -0.2 118.1M
AET 44.500 -0.060 -0.1 5.1M
TGP 28.340 -0.030 -0.1 81K
ABX 38.550 -0.040 -0.1 4.3M
DNA 73.770 -0.030 -0 2M
PG 66.450 -0.010 -0 10.9M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
QCOM 50.000 49.990 +1.010 +2.06 25.82M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GE 28.490 29.150 +0.100 +0.34 115.74M
BC 12.750 13.150 +0.070 +0.54 2.40M
GFI 10.820 11.130 +0.070 +0.63 5.93M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
YHOO 23.470 -0.2 118.1M +239
KO 55.420 -3 30.2M +179
PDA 58.760 -1.5 368.9K +122
TOT 80.440 -0.8 4.2M +100
WBK 104.110 +3.3 41.7K +90
GE 29.150 +0.3 115.7M +87
AMAT 20.090 +3.8 37.4M +67
BDK 60.270 +1 1.2M +60
GS 178.290 +6.9 14.3M +51
BMY 20.120 +2.3 17.1M +41
GOOG 571.510 +3.4 6.2M +41
AET 44.500 -0.1 5.1M +35
LEH 25.810 +13.7 82.4M +34
WHR 68.520 +3.6 1.5M +30
DB 96.350 +1.4 708.1K +25
RIO 34.570 +0.1 33M +21
RY 47.690 +0.8 678.3K +17
COST 70.320 +3.1 6.9M +14
BBBY 30.030 +3.2 5.7M +14
ADBE 42.710 +4.2 6.3M +14
NOK 26.080 +1.2 20.2M +14
QCOM 49.990 +2.1 25.8M +13
HDB 84.640 +0.6 595K +11
HBC 80.440 +0 1.5M +11

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Stifel Nicolaus --- --- Hold Buy
YHOO Soleil --- --- Sell Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Gabelli --- --- Hold Sell
YHOO Needham --- --- Buy Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ABV CSFB --- --- Outperform Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ECA91.0689.5066.4851.77
ATVI34.3787.6484.1761.59Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $33.80, +1.69% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
GGB48.5887.1677.1845.71
PBR67.9483.5062.9349.11
SU63.9383.1757.7235.64
SYT60.7582.6254.1540.21Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, -4.36% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PDA58.7680.1257.8646.31
RIMM132.9678.9159.7747.86
WMT59.1878.3677.3258.44Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +1.39% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
EXC89.7577.3967.0061.03
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
NKE68.9974.9462.5659.43
STO37.3173.2658.9443.41
IMO56.7772.7350.0537.97
TS62.5772.5675.8653.16Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $63.23, -1.04% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
CVX99.4071.2669.3451.43
QCOM49.9971.1076.5065.82
DELL24.4255.4681.0473.46
OXPS24.1348.1461.4271.20

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ERJ31.5520.6921.0913.52Accumulation Zone (for 9 days)
GE29.1524.1420.3426.32Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
BC13.1524.3825.5933.54Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $13.08, +0.54% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS24.6724.5826.2250.89Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $23.09, +6.84% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GOL12.5028.0027.9824.63Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
WFMI27.1628.6028.2234.68Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $27.16, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BMY20.1228.8329.3231.72Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $20.12, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
BDK60.2728.9827.2937.10Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $59.68, +0.99% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
DB96.3530.1319.5225.00Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $96.35, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
SNDK24.0233.8434.7723.70
GFI11.1333.8524.5015.66
NOK26.0836.4029.9835.86
DEO76.2738.3425.1440.48
YHOO23.4738.8925.4015.00
TGP28.2639.4442.5428.59
HDB84.6441.0727.4435.42
CHA58.1645.3931.1126.07
HBC80.4448.1339.3125.59
CHL68.5448.2727.5729.59
TOT80.4457.7147.0029.58
RIO34.5758.8837.7423.32
ABB29.9464.7549.8929.35


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MSFT 29.07 0.83 2.94% 5.75% 2.65% -4.53% -17.46% 1.57% -17.46% -4.34%
MCD 59.95 0.61 1.03% 5.27% 1.06% -1.50% 3.18% 9.22% -2.54% 14.87%
DIS 33.93 0.69 2.08% 2.79% 0.98% -3.03% 6.56% 8.30% 3.57% 1.59%
BA 75.12 1.00 1.35% 2.68% -9.24% -12.19% -13.28% 1.27% -15.17% -23.71%
UTX 68.56 0.64 0.94% 2.31% -3.49% -7.71% -8.84% 0.07% -11.66% -3.07%
C 20.48 0.59 2.97% 2.09% -6.44% -13.70% -29.18% -2.80% -33.96% -61.85%
DD 47.20 0.89 1.92% 1.90% -1.48% -4.68% 7.91% -0.23% 2.12% -7.31%
CAT 81.50 1.00 1.24% 1.89% -1.38% -2.40% 15.39% 7.70% 9.81% 1.96%
XOM 88.36 1.30 1.49% 1.81% -0.45% -3.22% -5.51% 1.50% -4.70% 6.01%
MMM 76.12 0.57 0.75% 1.68% -1.86% -2.23% -7.97% -3.74% -12.43% -12.70%
PG 66.45 -0.01 -0.02% 1.65% 0.61% 0.14% -8.10% -1.35% -10.69% 6.54%
GM 16.45 0.69 4.38% 1.42% -3.80% -21.03% -32.61% -19.01% -38.96% -48.75%
WMT 59.18 0.07 0.12% 1.39% 2.49% 3.61% 26.18% 16.96% 22.45% 19.56%
HD 27.53 1.05 3.97% 1.29% 0.62% -6.77% 5.44% 3.97% -0.40% -27.03%
IBM 126.15 2.30 1.86% 0.97% -2.53% -1.80% 20.50% 8.83% 16.61% 22.33%
JNJ 66.27 0.58 0.88% 0.78% -0.70% -0.61% 0.55% 5.51% -2.36% 6.58%
AIG 34.18 0.50 1.48% 0.74% -5.79% -13.62% -39.29% -19.54% -40.09% -52.86%
AA 39.46 1.72 4.56% 0.61% -2.78% -7.67% 9.22% 2.57% 8.62% -2.52%
PFE 17.99 0.26 1.47% 0.17% -7.08% -10.41% -21.48% -15.18% -23.90% -31.73%
AXP 44.66 1.24 2.86% 0.02% -3.65% -10.43% -12.50% 4.59% -17.05% -29.28%
CVX 99.40 1.34 1.37% -0.10% 0.25% 0.92% 6.36% 14.20% 6.79% 22.49%
HPQ 47.45 0.48 1.02% -0.38% 0.83% 1.54% -4.74% 0.91% -9.39% 4.29%
KO 55.42 -1.72 -3.01% -0.68% -3.21% -2.79% -9.28% -5.96% -13.53% 7.90%
INTC 22.66 0.61 2.77% -1.05% -2.24% -9.25% -10.61% 6.48% -16.57% -0.04%
JPM 39.58 1.57 4.13% -1.27% -7.95% -15.82% -6.14% 3.86% -13.51% -21.30%
VZ 37.33 0.70 1.91% -2.35% -2.96% -4.04% -13.61% 7.67% -17.08% -12.98%
BAC 29.78 0.34 1.15% -2.36% -12.44% -18.88% -26.58% -19.82% -30.82% -40.87%
GE 29.15 0.10 0.34% -2.90% -5.11% -9.95% -20.70% -14.89% -22.43% -22.56%
T 36.68 0.29 0.80% -4.00% -8.07% -7.98% -10.54% 3.32% -12.25% -8.25%
MRK 35.53 0.13 0.37% -5.23% -8.80% -11.18% -38.07% -15.26% -40.58% -29.88%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day<