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June 14, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Jun 14, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Declining oil prices, a so-called "in-line" inflation reading, and a US Dollar rally on Friday triggered a large advance in US equity prices. The Bulls were able to hold the technically important level of 12200 with a late afternoon push.
Basic materials (XLB) and consumer discretionary (XLY) sectors led the way north with gains of +2.49%. By the end of the session, the DJIA (+165.77 +1.37% to 12307.35), S&P 500 (+20.16 +1.50% to 1360.03) and NASDAQ Composite (+50.15 +2.09% to 2454.5) all closed quite strong.
The US Dollar, which has been firming up all week, strengthened substantially after Ireland voted against the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. Subsequently, the price of Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$1.91/bbl to 135.47. $GOLD managed to stay up though (+$1.10/oz) to 873.10.
The 30-year US Treasury Bond ($USB) continued to fall, from $115.11 a week ago to $112.55 at the close Friday, down -0.35% on the day.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up to 4.261 while the T-Bill yield dropped a bit to 1.93.
Consumer Staples were quiet Friday (+0.07%) as most traders were chasing the high beta stocks in the Basic Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. But this was a day where the Broker-Dealers ($XBD +5.12%) and Airline ($XAL +4.25%) industries energized the market. Surprisingly, the major banks did not as $BKX gained just +0.15% on the day.
Cara 100 winners were NTES +9.2%, GS +6.9%, UBS +6.8% and IBKR +5.4%. Losers were KO -3.0% and VCP -2.4%.
At the end of the week, the $USD futures closed at 74.05, with the Euro futures at 1.5350. Precious metal spot prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were: 870.20, 448, 2027, and 16.53.
Crude oil futures closed at 135.07 for West Texas Intermediate and 134.25 for European Brent..
The equity futures closed at 12300 for the DJIA.
The All Ordinaries equities index of Australia closed the week at 5802.8, down about -100 points on the week. Hong Kong closed at 22592.3, down a lot from 24402.2, while Japan’s Nikkei also dropped from 14489.4 to 13973.73.
Comments & Outlook
The Airlines ($XAL) look good to me on a value basis as I feel that oil prices are coming down. But that’s only for a short-term trade. The industry is in need of another round of reorganization and consolidation. But mostly the high fuel costs will mean that more fuel efficient planes are needed, which takes years to develop.
As for the Broker-Dealers ($XBD), I believe that trading volumes and corporate finance fees will decline over the summer months, and then the broad equity market will take its next tumble in September. So, I cannot buy into the notion that their problems are over. Why the group rallied +5.12% on Friday is beyond me. Bull trap maybe?
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| LEH | 25.810 | +3.110 | +13.7 | 82.4M |
| NTES | 22.990 | +1.940 | +9.2 | 1.3M |
| GS | 178.290 | +11.540 | +6.9 | 14.3M |
| UBS | 24.670 | +1.580 | +6.8 | 6.2M |
| IBKR | 34.420 | +1.760 | +5.4 | 468.6K |
| MICC | 115.880 | +4.970 | +4.5 | 523.7K |
| NUE | 77.060 | +3.140 | +4.2 | 5.3M |
| ADBE | 42.710 | +1.720 | +4.2 | 6.3M |
| IBN | 36.650 | +1.370 | +3.9 | 2.9M |
| BHP | 82.280 | +3.060 | +3.9 | 4.5M |
| KSS | 45.570 | +1.690 | +3.9 | 6.5M |
| AMAT | 20.090 | +0.730 | +3.8 | 37.4M |
| WHR | 68.520 | +2.380 | +3.6 | 1.5M |
| ORCL | 22.630 | +0.770 | +3.5 | 31.8M |
| CTSH | 35.750 | +1.180 | +3.4 | 5M |
| JCP | 39.470 | +1.290 | +3.4 | 4.8M |
| GOOG | 571.510 | +18.560 | +3.4 | 6.2M |
| OXPS | 24.130 | +0.780 | +3.3 | 768.2K |
| WBK | 104.110 | +3.360 | +3.3 | 41.7K |
| NKE | 68.990 | +2.210 | +3.3 | 3.4M |
| BBBY | 30.030 | +0.940 | +3.2 | 5.7M |
| COST | 70.320 | +2.120 | +3.1 | 6.9M |
| SWK | 48.340 | +1.450 | +3.1 | 571.8K |
| INTC | 22.660 | +0.610 | +2.8 | 43M |
| DELL | 24.420 | +0.640 | +2.7 | 25.9M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| KO | 55.420 | -1.720 | -3 | 30.2M |
| VCP | 31.610 | -0.770 | -2.4 | 363.5K |
| ABV | 68.820 | -1.180 | -1.7 | 1.4M |
| CHA | 58.160 | -0.970 | -1.6 | 195K |
| PDA | 58.760 | -0.920 | -1.5 | 368.9K |
| CEO | 167.700 | -1.910 | -1.1 | 357.2K |
| STO | 37.310 | -0.420 | -1.1 | 1.2M |
| SU | 63.930 | -0.650 | -1 | 3.1M |
| TOT | 80.440 | -0.630 | -0.8 | 4.2M |
| SLW | 13.400 | -0.100 | -0.7 | 1.3M |
| GRMN | 44.910 | -0.290 | -0.6 | 2.9M |
| IMO | 56.490 | -0.260 | -0.5 | 349K |
| PTR | 129.990 | -0.490 | -0.4 | 619.5K |
| CHL | 68.540 | -0.210 | -0.3 | 2M |
| YHOO | 23.470 | -0.050 | -0.2 | 118.1M |
| AET | 44.500 | -0.060 | -0.1 | 5.1M |
| TGP | 28.340 | -0.030 | -0.1 | 81K |
| ABX | 38.550 | -0.040 | -0.1 | 4.3M |
| DNA | 73.770 | -0.030 | -0 | 2M |
| PG | 66.450 | -0.010 | -0 | 10.9M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| QCOM | 50.000 | 49.990 | +1.010 | +2.06 | 25.82M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| GE | 28.490 | 29.150 | +0.100 | +0.34 | 115.74M |
| BC | 12.750 | 13.150 | +0.070 | +0.54 | 2.40M |
| GFI | 10.820 | 11.130 | +0.070 | +0.63 | 5.93M |
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| YHOO | 23.470 | -0.2 | 118.1M | +239 |
| KO | 55.420 | -3 | 30.2M | +179 |
| PDA | 58.760 | -1.5 | 368.9K | +122 |
| TOT | 80.440 | -0.8 | 4.2M | +100 |
| WBK | 104.110 | +3.3 | 41.7K | +90 |
| GE | 29.150 | +0.3 | 115.7M | +87 |
| AMAT | 20.090 | +3.8 | 37.4M | +67 |
| BDK | 60.270 | +1 | 1.2M | +60 |
| GS | 178.290 | +6.9 | 14.3M | +51 |
| BMY | 20.120 | +2.3 | 17.1M | +41 |
| GOOG | 571.510 | +3.4 | 6.2M | +41 |
| AET | 44.500 | -0.1 | 5.1M | +35 |
| LEH | 25.810 | +13.7 | 82.4M | +34 |
| WHR | 68.520 | +3.6 | 1.5M | +30 |
| DB | 96.350 | +1.4 | 708.1K | +25 |
| RIO | 34.570 | +0.1 | 33M | +21 |
| RY | 47.690 | +0.8 | 678.3K | +17 |
| COST | 70.320 | +3.1 | 6.9M | +14 |
| BBBY | 30.030 | +3.2 | 5.7M | +14 |
| ADBE | 42.710 | +4.2 | 6.3M | +14 |
| NOK | 26.080 | +1.2 | 20.2M | +14 |
| QCOM | 49.990 | +2.1 | 25.8M | +13 |
| HDB | 84.640 | +0.6 | 595K | +11 |
| HBC | 80.440 | +0 | 1.5M | +11 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| YHOO | Stifel Nicolaus | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Buy |
| YHOO | Soleil | --- |
|
--- | Sell |
|
Hold |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| YHOO | Gabelli | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Sell |
| YHOO | Needham | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| ABV | CSFB | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Neutral |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECA | 91.06 | 89.50 | 66.48 | 51.77 | |
| ATVI | 34.37 | 87.64 | 84.17 | 61.59 | Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $33.80, +1.69% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| GGB | 48.58 | 87.16 | 77.18 | 45.71 | |
| PBR | 67.94 | 83.50 | 62.93 | 49.11 | |
| SU | 63.93 | 83.17 | 57.72 | 35.64 | |
| SYT | 60.75 | 82.62 | 54.15 | 40.21 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, -4.36% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| PDA | 58.76 | 80.12 | 57.86 | 46.31 | |
| RIMM | 132.96 | 78.91 | 59.77 | 47.86 | |
| WMT | 59.18 | 78.36 | 77.32 | 58.44 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +1.39% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| EXC | 89.75 | 77.39 | 67.00 | 61.03 | |
| TT | 46.49 | 76.65 | 65.62 | 56.92 | |
| NKE | 68.99 | 74.94 | 62.56 | 59.43 | |
| STO | 37.31 | 73.26 | 58.94 | 43.41 | |
| IMO | 56.77 | 72.73 | 50.05 | 37.97 | |
| TS | 62.57 | 72.56 | 75.86 | 53.16 | Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $63.23, -1.04% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| CVX | 99.40 | 71.26 | 69.34 | 51.43 | |
| QCOM | 49.99 | 71.10 | 76.50 | 65.82 | |
| DELL | 24.42 | 55.46 | 81.04 | 73.46 | |
| OXPS | 24.13 | 48.14 | 61.42 | 71.20 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERJ | 31.55 | 20.69 | 21.09 | 13.52 | Accumulation Zone (for 9 days) |
| GE | 29.15 | 24.14 | 20.34 | 26.32 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| BC | 13.15 | 24.38 | 25.59 | 33.54 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $13.08, +0.54% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| UBS | 24.67 | 24.58 | 26.22 | 50.89 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $23.09, +6.84% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| GOL | 12.50 | 28.00 | 27.98 | 24.63 | Accumulation Zone (for 4 days) |
| WFMI | 27.16 | 28.60 | 28.22 | 34.68 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $27.16, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| BMY | 20.12 | 28.83 | 29.32 | 31.72 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $20.12, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| BDK | 60.27 | 28.98 | 27.29 | 37.10 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $59.68, +0.99% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| DB | 96.35 | 30.13 | 19.52 | 25.00 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-13 at $96.35, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| SNDK | 24.02 | 33.84 | 34.77 | 23.70 | |
| GFI | 11.13 | 33.85 | 24.50 | 15.66 | |
| NOK | 26.08 | 36.40 | 29.98 | 35.86 | |
| DEO | 76.27 | 38.34 | 25.14 | 40.48 | |
| YHOO | 23.47 | 38.89 | 25.40 | 15.00 | |
| TGP | 28.26 | 39.44 | 42.54 | 28.59 | |
| HDB | 84.64 | 41.07 | 27.44 | 35.42 | |
| CHA | 58.16 | 45.39 | 31.11 | 26.07 | |
| HBC | 80.44 | 48.13 | 39.31 | 25.59 | |
| CHL | 68.54 | 48.27 | 27.57 | 29.59 | |
| TOT | 80.44 | 57.71 | 47.00 | 29.58 | |
| RIO | 34.57 | 58.88 | 37.74 | 23.32 | |
| ABB | 29.94 | 64.75 | 49.89 | 29.35 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day< |
