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June 7, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Jun 07, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The Bull was mauled on Friday. There is blood all over Wall Street and Main Street. The concept of 'surge' took on a new meaning following oil's second consecutive record intra-day price spike. At the same time there was massive jump in the unemployment rate.

All sectors of the market were hammered as the DJIA (-394.64 -3.13% to 12209.81), S&P 500 (-43.37 -3.09% to 1360.68), and NASDAQ Composite (-75.38 -2.96% to 2474.56) plunged as oil price concerns overwhelmed the equity market.

Middle East tension that was triggered by the Israeli Prime Minister who announced that Iran’s presumed nuclear programme will be stopped, likely by Israel’s nuclear power. Ehud Olmert said that Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped by what he termed “all possible means”. Subsequently, Crude oil jumped from $122.58 per barrel on Thursday morning to $138.54 at the close Friday for West Texas Intermediate near futures and $1.3769 for European Brent.

Libya's oil minister Shokri Ghanem told Bloomberg News, "I expect (oil) to reach $140 before the end of the month." He stated the market is well supplied with oil and added, interestingly, that “speculators” are to blame for the increase in oil prices. If Olmert was musing or speculating, the market was saying otherwise!

The US Dollar collapsed, falling -0.91% to 72.38 after the US Jobs Report reported that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5%, well above expectations, as new workers joined the work force and non-farm payrolls fell by -49000.

The 30-year Treasury Bond jumped +0.75% to 115.11 as yields plunged on the market’s safe haven move from riskier equities to risk-free bonds.

The Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver spot price at the close on Friday were: 901.35, 431.5, 2070, and 17.48 per ounce, respectively.

The Euro futures closed at 1.5759.

The DJIA near futures closed at 12214 and the NASDAQ 100 (non-financial) index futures closed at 1988.75.

The biggest loser of the Cara 100 equities was India’s HDFC Bank (HDB), which fell -7.4%. The gainers were all goldminers or oil related: Canada’s Goldcorp and Barrick goldminers (GG +4.5% and +4.1%) and EnCana +2.1%). Norwegian Statoil (STO) gained +2.7%.

If there was one sector that won on the day, it was the Energy sector. But XLE dropped -2.0% as traders knew that $138 oil is unsustainable, and if left unchecked for a week or two, would send the entire equity market into massive losses based on the Stagflation, which is a stagnant (or worse) economy tied to inflation.


Comments & Outlook

It was not so long ago that I opined that unemployment in the US would start to surge. A few of you doubted me. The Friday Jobs Report is proof of concept. This problem is now front burner. So-called “rebates” are not jobs. They are also not wage and salary increases.

With respect to the Middle East, if hot-headed politicians cannot resolve their differences on a diplomatic level, and choose more war, the real problem will be worse than inflation, recession/depression and stock market crash. The average person, and tax-payer, will start to revolt.

The people have had enough. If allowed to fester and unemployment levels build to where I anticipate, and oil prices stay at the $138 level or higher, I believe the West is headed for broad general strikes and internal strife that will include domestic bombing and burning.

Interesting to me that the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama, will now be headed for four or five months of intensely disrespectful dirty politics. The world, I think, is soon to witness a smear campaign in politics that will not make Americans look good in the eyes of others. Do they care? Probably not, but they should.

With regard to capital markets, investors who are locked by debt into long-term asset holdings are suffering and at risk of losing everything.

The opening on Monday should be interesting. Choose your poison.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
GG 41.260 +1.770 +4.5 8.6M
ABX 42.070 +1.640 +4.1 12.5M
STO 38.430 +1.010 +2.7 2.1M
ECA 92.600 +1.910 +2.1 4M
NTES 23.450 +0.440 +1.9 1.6M
IMO 59.550 +0.920 +1.6 471.8K
SU 67.860 +0.730 +1.1 5.7M
TGP 29.350 +0.240 +0.8 148K
DNA 73.690 +0.580 +0.8 4.5M
SLW 14.520 +0.090 +0.6 2.2M
YHOO 26.440 +0.080 +0.3 37.7M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
HDB 86.580 -6.940 -7.4 823.7K
CHA 61.030 -3.890 -6 365.9K
IBKR 32.660 -2.060 -5.9 545K
UBS 23.910 -1.490 -5.9 7.6M
BC 13.370 -0.830 -5.8 3.2M
KSS 44.360 -2.570 -5.5 6.7M
CTSH 34.770 -2.010 -5.5 5.9M
CCL 37.230 -2.120 -5.4 5M
BA 73.160 -4.150 -5.4 12.7M
VIP 31.630 -1.710 -5.1 4.1M
JCP 38.570 -1.990 -4.9 6.3M
CHL 71.270 -3.560 -4.8 3.6M
CHRW 61.070 -2.980 -4.7 1.8M
LEH 32.290 -1.560 -4.6 45.2M
SBUX 17.670 -0.850 -4.6 12.2M
QCOM 47.140 -2.250 -4.6 25.3M
PTR 135.970 -6.320 -4.4 1.2M
DIS 33.010 -1.480 -4.3 16.5M
UTX 67.010 -2.960 -4.2 11.8M
BBBY 30.470 -1.340 -4.2 6.3M
ERJ 33.270 -1.440 -4.1 1.2M
WFMI 28.500 -1.230 -4.1 3.7M
IBN 35.450 -1.500 -4.1 4.8M
INTC 22.902 -0.968 -4.1 69.8M
GS 169.440 -7.160 -4.1 10.5M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
TS 65.780 64.650 -0.240 -0.37 3.80M
VCP 35.060 34.350 -0.580 -1.66 517.04K
GGB 52.420 50.540 -0.940 -1.83 2.98M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
BC 13.240 13.370 -0.830 -5.85 3.15M
ERJ 33.180 33.270 -1.440 -4.15 1.17M
GOL 13.860 14.110 -0.490 -3.36 957.19K
GE 30.000 30.020 -1.040 -3.35 69.34M
DB 100.070 100.070 -3.410 -3.30 624.04K
NOK 26.080 26.130 -0.650 -2.43 17.50M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
ABB 31.720 -3 10.2M +168
UTX 67.010 -4.2 11.8M +136
BA 73.160 -5.4 12.7M +125
TEF 82.400 -2.8 857.7K +121
PAYX 33.170 -2.4 7M +120
TOT 84.470 -1.6 3.5M +95
HDB 86.580 -7.4 823.7K +82
IBN 35.450 -4.1 4.8M +62
TS 64.650 -0.4 3.8M +59
HBC 82.360 -2.5 1.8M +57
BC 13.370 -5.8 3.2M +52
PG 65.370 -1.9 16.3M +51
CHL 71.270 -4.8 3.6M +49
CHA 61.030 -6 365.9K +49
ERJ 33.270 -4.1 1.2M +49
CEO 171.280 -1.6 777.1K +48
ABX 42.070 +4.1 12.5M +47
BBBY 30.470 -4.2 6.3M +46
ORCL 22.460 -3.1 41.3M +43
KB 61.000 -3.1 801.3K +42
JNJ 65.760 -1.8 14.2M +42
CSCO 26.540 -3.6 68.9M +42
EXC 87.410 -2.5 4.6M +41
AET 46.480 -2.1 4.8M +40
CVX 99.500 -0.5 18.5M +37

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Piper Jaffray --- --- Neutral Buy
CVX Cazenove --- --- In Line Outperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
UBS Societe General --- --- Hold Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ADBE SG Cowen --- --- Outperform Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
PBR68.0794.0563.4245.19
GGB50.5487.6291.4659.28Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, +1.92% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI34.0286.8483.3065.40Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $34.02, +0.00% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
ECA92.6082.6769.9659.16
SYT63.5280.0668.9861.17Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
WMT58.3778.8574.1957.48Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NUE78.2077.3064.8957.52
SU67.8677.1069.7253.63
PDA57.8076.7955.9135.75Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-02 at $63.80, -9.40% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
TS64.6575.1188.9672.27Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
BHP83.8274.4554.9638.74
ABB31.7274.2866.0038.55
STO38.4374.1265.1651.49
RIMM131.4173.9458.2537.19
NKE67.9373.8159.0353.87
EXC87.4172.1560.8947.51Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, -1.59% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
RIO37.4472.0248.5834.22
VCP34.3571.7163.8166.73
IMO59.5570.4960.6358.66
CVX99.5070.4469.8452.94
DELL23.7453.0478.4475.94
DNA73.6948.4856.1870.14

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
BC13.3721.2826.6927.95Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
UBS23.9121.7121.5732.84Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-05 at $25.40, -5.87% chg], after a 7 day AZ)
ERJ33.2721.7324.0116.23Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
GOL14.1124.7834.7332.02
WFMI28.5028.3232.4442.37Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, -0.66% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
SBUX17.6729.2851.4450.06
BMY20.8829.4434.3027.05
GSK42.3329.9937.6927.94
DB100.0731.8922.3616.02
GE30.0233.7223.7031.14
NOK26.1333.9030.1717.15
BA73.1635.1931.7212.55
WHR68.7435.3931.7427.27
IBN35.4536.8428.0430.66
PAYX33.1739.9834.9327.20
DEO77.4641.2929.1941.26
UTX67.0141.2929.0622.28
HDB86.5841.3928.7727.13
ABV66.3443.5930.1427.84
BBBY30.4744.0844.4327.68
CHA61.0345.4035.0225.47
DOW38.7846.2941.9727.46
CHL71.2750.4931.1928.30
TEF82.4053.4335.7028.57


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
HPQ 47.63 -0.88 -1.81% 1.21% 6.08% -2.91% -4.38% -0.31% -8.77% 3.48%
WMT 58.37 -1.43 -2.39% 1.09% 4.14% 2.12% 24.46% 16.79% 18.47% 15.01%
CVX 99.50 -0.49 -0.49% 0.35% -2.36% 2.11% 6.46% 13.33% 8.89% 21.65%
VZ 38.23 -0.73 -1.87% -0.62% 2.03% -0.05% -11.53% 8.36% -13.94% -10.93%
HD 27.18 -0.73 -2.62% -0.66% 1.00% -2.65% 4.10% 5.51% -7.83% -29.03%
PG 65.37 -1.30 -1.95% -1.03% -0.38% -0.83% -9.60% -1.71% -11.88% 3.45%
INTC 22.90 -0.97 -4.06% -1.20% -4.10% -2.13% -9.66% 15.26% -18.15% 6.57%
JNJ 65.76 -1.20 -1.79% -1.47% 0.54% -1.70% -0.23% 5.00% -3.72% 4.55%
DIS 33.01 -1.48 -4.29% -1.76% -1.79% -4.48% 3.67% 5.63% 0.89% -5.44%
XOM 86.79 -2.52 -2.82% -2.22% -6.18% -3.49% -7.19% 2.70% -5.09% 3.79%
GE 30.02 -1.04 -3.35% -2.28% -3.19% -7.89% -18.34% -8.64% -19.43% -19.50%
KO 55.80 -1.39 -2.43% -2.55% -4.24% -0.87% -8.66% -5.58% -11.53% 7.31%
MSFT 27.49 -0.81 -2.86% -2.93% -3.44% -6.08% -21.95% -0.29% -20.43% -9.24%
CAT 79.99 -2.74 -3.31% -3.21% -2.71% -2.95% 13.25% 13.06% 7.59% 1.66%
DD 46.32 -1.41 -2.95% -3.32% -4.36% -6.10% 5.90% -0.32% -1.97% -9.14%
AA 39.22 -0.86 -2.15% -3.38% -3.87% -1.08% 8.55% 2.22% 9.37% -1.58%
IBM 124.94 -3.53 -2.75% -3.46% 0.19% 0.02% 19.34% 11.04% 13.89% 22.00%
MMM 74.86 -2.64 -3.41% -3.48% -2.32% -2.72% -9.49% -3.96% -11.74% -13.58%
AXP 44.65 -2.78 -5.86% -3.67% -3.69% -8.60% -12.52% 8.14% -25.00% -29.95%
MRK 37.49 -1.40 -3.60% -3.77% -3.95% -4.09% -34.65% -11.56% -36.99% -26.14%
MCD 56.95 -1.10 -1.89% -4.00% -2.70% -4.72% -1.98% 7.37% -5.52% 12.46%
T 38.21 -1.25 -3.17% -4.24% -2.48% -1.67% -6.80% 9.11% -1.57% -5.37%
GM 16.22 -0.83 -4.87% -5.15% -11.99% -23.31% -33.55% -27.43% -43.31% -45.95%
UTX 67.01 -2.96 -4.23% -5.67% -6.72% -9.52% -10.90% -2.64% -14.08% -4.16%
AIG 33.93 -2.48 -6.81% -6.48% -10.26% -23.15% -39.73% -20.87% -44.69% -52.99%
JPM 40.09 -2.01 -4.77% -6.77% -6.88% -12.94% -4.93% 7.28% -13.24% -20.71%
PFE 17.96 -0.71 -3.80% -7.23% -9.20% -10.07% -21.61% -16.81% -25.69% -32.96%
C 20.06 -1.16 -5.47% -8.36% -7.64% -17.45% -30.64% -5.24% -41.60% -62.39%
BAC 30.50 -1.49 -4.66% -10.32% -12.18% -18.30% -24.80% -16.48% -33.64% -39.40%
BA 73.16 -4.15 -5.37% -11.61% -10.13% -13.69% -15.54% -7.99% -20.29% -25.57%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%