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June 7, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Jun 07, 2008
Markets Re-cap
The Bull was mauled on Friday. There is blood all over Wall Street and Main Street. The concept of 'surge' took on a new meaning following oil's second consecutive record intra-day price spike. At the same time there was massive jump in the unemployment rate.
All sectors of the market were hammered as the DJIA (-394.64 -3.13% to 12209.81), S&P 500 (-43.37 -3.09% to 1360.68), and NASDAQ Composite (-75.38 -2.96% to 2474.56) plunged as oil price concerns overwhelmed the equity market.
Middle East tension that was triggered by the Israeli Prime Minister who announced that Iran’s presumed nuclear programme will be stopped, likely by Israel’s nuclear power. Ehud Olmert said that Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped by what he termed “all possible means”. Subsequently, Crude oil jumped from $122.58 per barrel on Thursday morning to $138.54 at the close Friday for West Texas Intermediate near futures and $1.3769 for European Brent.
Libya's oil minister Shokri Ghanem told Bloomberg News, "I expect (oil) to reach $140 before the end of the month." He stated the market is well supplied with oil and added, interestingly, that “speculators” are to blame for the increase in oil prices. If Olmert was musing or speculating, the market was saying otherwise!
The US Dollar collapsed, falling -0.91% to 72.38 after the US Jobs Report reported that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5%, well above expectations, as new workers joined the work force and non-farm payrolls fell by -49000.
The 30-year Treasury Bond jumped +0.75% to 115.11 as yields plunged on the market’s safe haven move from riskier equities to risk-free bonds.
The Gold, Palladium, Platinum and Silver spot price at the close on Friday were: 901.35, 431.5, 2070, and 17.48 per ounce, respectively.
The Euro futures closed at 1.5759.
The DJIA near futures closed at 12214 and the NASDAQ 100 (non-financial) index futures closed at 1988.75.
The biggest loser of the Cara 100 equities was India’s HDFC Bank (HDB), which fell -7.4%. The gainers were all goldminers or oil related: Canada’s Goldcorp and Barrick goldminers (GG +4.5% and +4.1%) and EnCana +2.1%). Norwegian Statoil (STO) gained +2.7%.
If there was one sector that won on the day, it was the Energy sector. But XLE dropped -2.0% as traders knew that $138 oil is unsustainable, and if left unchecked for a week or two, would send the entire equity market into massive losses based on the Stagflation, which is a stagnant (or worse) economy tied to inflation.
Comments & Outlook
It was not so long ago that I opined that unemployment in the US would start to surge. A few of you doubted me. The Friday Jobs Report is proof of concept. This problem is now front burner. So-called “rebates” are not jobs. They are also not wage and salary increases.
With respect to the Middle East, if hot-headed politicians cannot resolve their differences on a diplomatic level, and choose more war, the real problem will be worse than inflation, recession/depression and stock market crash. The average person, and tax-payer, will start to revolt.
The people have had enough. If allowed to fester and unemployment levels build to where I anticipate, and oil prices stay at the $138 level or higher, I believe the West is headed for broad general strikes and internal strife that will include domestic bombing and burning.
Interesting to me that the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama, will now be headed for four or five months of intensely disrespectful dirty politics. The world, I think, is soon to witness a smear campaign in politics that will not make Americans look good in the eyes of others. Do they care? Probably not, but they should.
With regard to capital markets, investors who are locked by debt into long-term asset holdings are suffering and at risk of losing everything.
The opening on Monday should be interesting. Choose your poison.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| GG | 41.260 | +1.770 | +4.5 | 8.6M |
| ABX | 42.070 | +1.640 | +4.1 | 12.5M |
| STO | 38.430 | +1.010 | +2.7 | 2.1M |
| ECA | 92.600 | +1.910 | +2.1 | 4M |
| NTES | 23.450 | +0.440 | +1.9 | 1.6M |
| IMO | 59.550 | +0.920 | +1.6 | 471.8K |
| SU | 67.860 | +0.730 | +1.1 | 5.7M |
| TGP | 29.350 | +0.240 | +0.8 | 148K |
| DNA | 73.690 | +0.580 | +0.8 | 4.5M |
| SLW | 14.520 | +0.090 | +0.6 | 2.2M |
| YHOO | 26.440 | +0.080 | +0.3 | 37.7M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| HDB | 86.580 | -6.940 | -7.4 | 823.7K |
| CHA | 61.030 | -3.890 | -6 | 365.9K |
| IBKR | 32.660 | -2.060 | -5.9 | 545K |
| UBS | 23.910 | -1.490 | -5.9 | 7.6M |
| BC | 13.370 | -0.830 | -5.8 | 3.2M |
| KSS | 44.360 | -2.570 | -5.5 | 6.7M |
| CTSH | 34.770 | -2.010 | -5.5 | 5.9M |
| CCL | 37.230 | -2.120 | -5.4 | 5M |
| BA | 73.160 | -4.150 | -5.4 | 12.7M |
| VIP | 31.630 | -1.710 | -5.1 | 4.1M |
| JCP | 38.570 | -1.990 | -4.9 | 6.3M |
| CHL | 71.270 | -3.560 | -4.8 | 3.6M |
| CHRW | 61.070 | -2.980 | -4.7 | 1.8M |
| LEH | 32.290 | -1.560 | -4.6 | 45.2M |
| SBUX | 17.670 | -0.850 | -4.6 | 12.2M |
| QCOM | 47.140 | -2.250 | -4.6 | 25.3M |
| PTR | 135.970 | -6.320 | -4.4 | 1.2M |
| DIS | 33.010 | -1.480 | -4.3 | 16.5M |
| UTX | 67.010 | -2.960 | -4.2 | 11.8M |
| BBBY | 30.470 | -1.340 | -4.2 | 6.3M |
| ERJ | 33.270 | -1.440 | -4.1 | 1.2M |
| WFMI | 28.500 | -1.230 | -4.1 | 3.7M |
| IBN | 35.450 | -1.500 | -4.1 | 4.8M |
| INTC | 22.902 | -0.968 | -4.1 | 69.8M |
| GS | 169.440 | -7.160 | -4.1 | 10.5M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| TS | 65.780 | 64.650 | -0.240 | -0.37 | 3.80M |
| VCP | 35.060 | 34.350 | -0.580 | -1.66 | 517.04K |
| GGB | 52.420 | 50.540 | -0.940 | -1.83 | 2.98M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| BC | 13.240 | 13.370 | -0.830 | -5.85 | 3.15M |
| ERJ | 33.180 | 33.270 | -1.440 | -4.15 | 1.17M |
| GOL | 13.860 | 14.110 | -0.490 | -3.36 | 957.19K |
| GE | 30.000 | 30.020 | -1.040 | -3.35 | 69.34M |
| DB | 100.070 | 100.070 | -3.410 | -3.30 | 624.04K |
| NOK | 26.080 | 26.130 | -0.650 | -2.43 | 17.50M |
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| ABB | 31.720 | -3 | 10.2M | +168 |
| UTX | 67.010 | -4.2 | 11.8M | +136 |
| BA | 73.160 | -5.4 | 12.7M | +125 |
| TEF | 82.400 | -2.8 | 857.7K | +121 |
| PAYX | 33.170 | -2.4 | 7M | +120 |
| TOT | 84.470 | -1.6 | 3.5M | +95 |
| HDB | 86.580 | -7.4 | 823.7K | +82 |
| IBN | 35.450 | -4.1 | 4.8M | +62 |
| TS | 64.650 | -0.4 | 3.8M | +59 |
| HBC | 82.360 | -2.5 | 1.8M | +57 |
| BC | 13.370 | -5.8 | 3.2M | +52 |
| PG | 65.370 | -1.9 | 16.3M | +51 |
| CHL | 71.270 | -4.8 | 3.6M | +49 |
| CHA | 61.030 | -6 | 365.9K | +49 |
| ERJ | 33.270 | -4.1 | 1.2M | +49 |
| CEO | 171.280 | -1.6 | 777.1K | +48 |
| ABX | 42.070 | +4.1 | 12.5M | +47 |
| BBBY | 30.470 | -4.2 | 6.3M | +46 |
| ORCL | 22.460 | -3.1 | 41.3M | +43 |
| KB | 61.000 | -3.1 | 801.3K | +42 |
| JNJ | 65.760 | -1.8 | 14.2M | +42 |
| CSCO | 26.540 | -3.6 | 68.9M | +42 |
| EXC | 87.410 | -2.5 | 4.6M | +41 |
| AET | 46.480 | -2.1 | 4.8M | +40 |
| CVX | 99.500 | -0.5 | 18.5M | +37 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| YHOO | Piper Jaffray | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| CVX | Cazenove | --- |
|
--- | In Line |
|
Outperform |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| UBS | Societe General | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Sell |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| ADBE | SG Cowen | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Neutral |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 68.07 | 94.05 | 63.42 | 45.19 | |
| GGB | 50.54 | 87.62 | 91.46 | 59.28 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, +1.92% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| ATVI | 34.02 | 86.84 | 83.30 | 65.40 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $34.02, +0.00% chg], after a 6 day DZ) |
| ECA | 92.60 | 82.67 | 69.96 | 59.16 | |
| SYT | 63.52 | 80.06 | 68.98 | 61.17 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| WMT | 58.37 | 78.85 | 74.19 | 57.48 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| NUE | 78.20 | 77.30 | 64.89 | 57.52 | |
| SU | 67.86 | 77.10 | 69.72 | 53.63 | |
| PDA | 57.80 | 76.79 | 55.91 | 35.75 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-02 at $63.80, -9.40% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| TT | 46.49 | 76.65 | 65.62 | 56.92 | |
| TS | 64.65 | 75.11 | 88.96 | 72.27 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| BHP | 83.82 | 74.45 | 54.96 | 38.74 | |
| ABB | 31.72 | 74.28 | 66.00 | 38.55 | |
| STO | 38.43 | 74.12 | 65.16 | 51.49 | |
| RIMM | 131.41 | 73.94 | 58.25 | 37.19 | |
| NKE | 67.93 | 73.81 | 59.03 | 53.87 | |
| EXC | 87.41 | 72.15 | 60.89 | 47.51 | Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, -1.59% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| RIO | 37.44 | 72.02 | 48.58 | 34.22 | |
| VCP | 34.35 | 71.71 | 63.81 | 66.73 | |
| IMO | 59.55 | 70.49 | 60.63 | 58.66 | |
| CVX | 99.50 | 70.44 | 69.84 | 52.94 | |
| DELL | 23.74 | 53.04 | 78.44 | 75.94 | |
| DNA | 73.69 | 48.48 | 56.18 | 70.14 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 13.37 | 21.28 | 26.69 | 27.95 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| UBS | 23.91 | 21.71 | 21.57 | 32.84 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-05 at $25.40, -5.87% chg], after a 7 day AZ) |
| ERJ | 33.27 | 21.73 | 24.01 | 16.23 | Accumulation Zone (for 4 days) |
| GOL | 14.11 | 24.78 | 34.73 | 32.02 | |
| WFMI | 28.50 | 28.32 | 32.44 | 42.37 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, -0.66% chg], after a 5 day AZ) |
| SBUX | 17.67 | 29.28 | 51.44 | 50.06 | |
| BMY | 20.88 | 29.44 | 34.30 | 27.05 | |
| GSK | 42.33 | 29.99 | 37.69 | 27.94 | |
| DB | 100.07 | 31.89 | 22.36 | 16.02 | |
| GE | 30.02 | 33.72 | 23.70 | 31.14 | |
| NOK | 26.13 | 33.90 | 30.17 | 17.15 | |
| BA | 73.16 | 35.19 | 31.72 | 12.55 | |
| WHR | 68.74 | 35.39 | 31.74 | 27.27 | |
| IBN | 35.45 | 36.84 | 28.04 | 30.66 | |
| PAYX | 33.17 | 39.98 | 34.93 | 27.20 | |
| DEO | 77.46 | 41.29 | 29.19 | 41.26 | |
| UTX | 67.01 | 41.29 | 29.06 | 22.28 | |
| HDB | 86.58 | 41.39 | 28.77 | 27.13 | |
| ABV | 66.34 | 43.59 | 30.14 | 27.84 | |
| BBBY | 30.47 | 44.08 | 44.43 | 27.68 | |
| CHA | 61.03 | 45.40 | 35.02 | 25.47 | |
| DOW | 38.78 | 46.29 | 41.97 | 27.46 | |
| CHL | 71.27 | 50.49 | 31.19 | 28.30 | |
| TEF | 82.40 | 53.43 | 35.70 | 28.57 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD % |
