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June 13, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Jun 13, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Yesterday, an early pull-back in the oil price plus Morgan Stanley's financial sector upgrade, and a better-than-anticipated retail sales number for May, combined to zoom stocks about +120 DJIA points in about a half hour at the open. Later oil prices rebounded, and the DJIA plunged until 3:30, following which there was a +70 point mini-rally into the close.

The DJIA (+57.81 +0.48% to 12141.58), S&P 500 (+4.38 +0.33% to 1339.87), and Nasdaq Composite (+10.34 +0.43% to 2404.35) were lifted by Banks ($BKX) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD). Hospitals ($RXH +2.8%) were strong. The commodity-based sectors (XLE -1.52%) pulled the market down.

Cara 100 winners on the day were ABV +8.7%, Indian banks IBN +8.1% and HDB +4.4% and QCOM +5.8%. Losers were YHOO -10.1%, GFI -5.5%, SU -4.0% and SNDK -3.3%.

In M&A news, Yahoo (YHOO) announced Microsoft (MSFT) is no longer interested in pursuing a deal, and is now seeking help from Google, it’s main competitor. As reported yesterday, Inbev (ABV) made a $46.4 billion offer for Anheuser-Busch (BUD).

On the economics front, US May retail sales lifted +1.0% and sales ex-auto's grew +1.2%, beating expectations, but also rising with rebate checks underlying the strength in both figures. Import prices for May grew +2.3%. The US labor market continues to soften as jobless claims grew +25,000 last week to 384,000.

As some traders perceived this economics data to be positive, the US Dollar posted a broad-based advance against all currencies. The $USD closed up +0.81% to 73.85, while the Euro dropped -0.64% to 1.5436, the Yen -1.08% to 92.67, the British Pound -0.82% to 1.9469, and the Cdn Dollar -0.73% to 97.65.

US Treasury selling continued as the $USB dropped a further -1.04% to 112.94. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up to 4.225 and on the T-Bill it’s at 1.950.

By the end of the session, however, Crude Oil rebounded to close at $137.38, up +$1.00/bbl on news the Nigerian government will take over the operations of a Royal Dutch Shell joint venture.

With the higher oil prices, the US Airlines ($UAL) were hit again, falling -2.42%, and the Goldminers ($XAU) lost -2.43%, not liking the stronger $USD or the pounding of the $GOLD price (-$10.90/oz to 872.00).

This morning, the $USD futures are stronger again, with the Euro futures down to 1.5338. Precious metal prices are all over the board as palladium (449) is up sharply and platinum (2032) a bit stronger, while silver is a bit weaker (16.53) and gold is down to 866.93.

Crude oil prices are down -0.99/bbl to 135.75.

The equity futures are up +58 to 12214.


Comments & Outlook

This week is a tough one for independent traders. There seems to be an inordinate amount of intervention by central banks, pushing the $USD higher, trying to break the backs of the commodity players. That strength was incongruent with the higher inflation data that was reported yesterday, which makes me believe the Fed played a role in the opening rally.

But traders should note there have been a number of 52-week lows in the Cara 100, from General Electric (GE -2.6% to 29.05, hitting 28.89!) to some golds, food, drugs, and airlines, which is pretty much across the board, reflecting the fact this is a Bear market.

What appear to be on the lift are a few consumer discretionary spending stocks that have benefitted from the tax rebate in the US, which is the gift from Treasury.

As far as the move yesterday in the Financials, I’m not impressed. I figure this was one bank (Morgan Stanley) scratching the back of many of its peers.

Have a good day. Hopefully superstition (Friday the 13th) won’t affect your trading.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
ABV 70.000 +5.600 +8.7 5.9M
IBN 35.280 +2.650 +8.1 4.8M
QCOM 48.980 +2.670 +5.8 42.8M
HDB 84.110 +3.560 +4.4 753.3K
INFY 46.430 +1.540 +3.4 3.2M
AMAT 19.360 +0.630 +3.4 43.6M
BBD 21.930 +0.690 +3.2 10.6M
KSS 43.880 +1.290 +3 6.2M
MBT 83.050 +2.200 +2.7 1.4M
GS 166.750 +4.350 +2.7 11.8M
CHA 59.130 +1.450 +2.5 310.2K
PDA 59.680 +1.440 +2.5 366.9K
CHL 68.750 +1.650 +2.5 3.1M
UBS 23.090 +0.470 +2.1 6.3M
ATVI 33.880 +0.680 +2 2.3M
JCP 38.180 +0.750 +2 4.3M
IBKR 32.660 +0.630 +2 526.5K
UTX 67.920 +1.270 +1.9 8M
OXPS 23.350 +0.390 +1.7 705K
SBUX 17.820 +0.250 +1.4 8.6M
GOOG 552.950 +7.750 +1.4 5.5M
DELL 23.780 +0.330 +1.4 29M
SWK 46.890 +0.590 +1.3 487.4K
WHR 66.140 +0.820 +1.3 1M
CTSH 34.570 +0.420 +1.2 3.5M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
YHOO 23.520 -2.630 -10.1 121.8M
GFI 11.060 -0.640 -5.5 10.3M
LEH 22.700 -1.050 -4.4 173M
SU 64.580 -2.700 -4 5M
SNDK 23.680 -0.800 -3.3 10.5M
TOT 81.070 -2.480 -3 3.4M
GE 29.050 -0.780 -2.6 95M
IMO 56.750 -1.520 -2.6 269.4K
ABX 38.590 -1.020 -2.6 6.9M
WBK 100.750 -2.260 -2.2 22.1K
GG 38.460 -0.840 -2.1 7.1M
DEO 75.020 -1.610 -2.1 3.5M
ECA 89.640 -1.700 -1.9 3.6M
XOM 87.060 -1.550 -1.7 32.2M
RIMM 129.590 -2.200 -1.7 15.3M
TGP 28.370 -0.460 -1.6 62.7K
NTES 21.050 -0.330 -1.5 694.6K
BHP 79.220 -1.130 -1.4 4.5M
CVX 98.060 -1.360 -1.4 13.2M
SLW 13.500 -0.180 -1.3 1.8M
BMY 19.670 -0.260 -1.3 13.1M
MFC 36.820 -0.370 -1 1.1M
NKE 66.780 -0.660 -1 3M
COST 68.200 -0.670 -1 8.4M
ORCL 21.860 -0.210 -1 35.1M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GFI 10.970 11.060 -0.640 -5.47 10.31M
GE 28.890 29.050 -0.780 -2.61 95.02M
BMY 19.559 19.670 -0.260 -1.30 13.12M
WFMI 26.710 26.740 -0.080 -0.30 8.45M
GOL 12.080 12.220 +0.000 +0.00 791.46K

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
ABV 70.000 +8.7 5.9M +466
DEO 75.020 -2.1 3.5M +328
YHOO 23.520 -10.1 121.8M +282
LEH 22.700 -4.4 173M +222
PDA 59.680 +2.5 366.9K +141
QCOM 48.980 +5.8 42.8M +99
AMAT 19.360 +3.4 43.6M +95
GFI 11.060 -5.5 10.3M +83
TOT 81.070 -3 3.4M +71
HBC 80.420 +0.5 2.2M +70
GE 29.050 -2.6 95M +62
WFMI 26.740 -0.3 8.4M +61
BA 74.120 +1.1 9.6M +50
PTR 130.480 +0.8 1.6M +49
IBN 35.280 +8.1 4.8M +46
HDB 84.110 +4.4 753.3K +46
COST 68.200 -1 8.4M +45
BBBY 29.090 +0.6 7M +45
UTX 67.920 +1.9 8M +40
GS 166.750 +2.7 11.8M +29
GOOG 552.950 +1.4 5.5M +27
RIO 34.520 +0.2 33.8M +26
CHA 59.130 +2.5 310.2K +26
TEF 81.560 +0.5 597K +25
BBD 21.930 +3.2 10.6M +21

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ATVI Wedbush Morgan --- --- Buy Strong Buy
CCJ UBS Securities --- --- Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
ABV CSFB --- --- Outperform Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
LEH Merrill Lynch --- --- Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
GGB48.3891.2572.8944.16
SYT61.6590.6658.5945.87Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, -2.94% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI33.8887.1080.3855.33Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $33.80, +0.24% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PBR66.5184.6056.1140.66
ECA89.6483.4164.9744.64
WMT59.1178.3268.4857.86Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +1.27% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
SU64.5878.0260.8337.99
NKE66.7878.0052.7843.02
EXC87.7077.4161.1648.05
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
PDA59.6875.5365.1151.29
TS62.5573.5773.7453.01Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $63.23, -1.08% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
QCOM48.9873.3781.2860.76
STO37.7373.1165.2647.06
RIMM129.5972.0356.7434.83
CVX98.0670.4960.3743.71
DELL23.7853.7977.0265.96

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
UBS23.0919.9819.3034.34Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $23.09, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
ERJ31.4520.7913.0911.10Accumulation Zone (for 8 days)
BC13.0822.6423.2930.87Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $13.08, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BDK59.6823.3723.5128.61Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
BMY19.6724.0828.3715.67Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
GE29.0524.8521.8223.18Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
GOL12.2225.8520.8615.53Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
WFMI26.7427.8025.7726.82Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
DB95.0328.0412.5015.52Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
SBUX17.8228.7850.8753.36
SNDK23.6832.1534.6818.56
GSK41.6032.8933.7626.75
WHR66.1433.3927.9227.51
GFI11.0634.0922.4712.33
KB59.0334.1438.6827.52
NOK25.7735.3424.5927.82
DEO75.0235.7320.0527.77
BA74.1236.4531.9727.31
IBN35.2837.0322.0044.14
YHOO23.5237.9126.7415.16
ERTS45.9938.3328.9124.13
HDB84.1140.7522.2133.42
BBBY29.0941.0736.2623.86
CHA59.1345.3234.1628.85
RY47.3147.4641.4023.46
HBC80.4247.7140.1225.12
CHL68.7548.1428.5530.53
VIP30.5854.5040.5028.49
NTES21.0555.0344.8127.75
LLTC33.5555.2846.6120.88
RIO34.5259.0935.0622.54
CHRW58.8259.4544.0325.59
BHP79.2261.5846.5123.51
ABB29.6764.1248.7722.83


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MCD 59.34 0.59 1.00% 2.22% -0.24% -1.82% 2.13% 10.50% -3.76% 15.27%
KO 57.14 0.00 0.00% -0.09% -1.26% 1.06% -6.47% -3.46% -10.40% 11.73%
MSFT 28.24 1.12 4.13% -0.21% -0.25% -5.65% -19.82% -1.36% -18.07% -5.39%
PG 66.46 0.26 0.39% -0.31% 1.51% 1.47% -8.09% -0.87% -11.00% 6.92%
WMT 59.11 0.59 1.01% -1.15% 2.02% 2.89% 26.03% 17.54% 22.56% 20.85%
JNJ 65.69 0.49 0.75% -1.90% -1.10% -1.68% -0.33% 5.02% -2.97% 6.24%
CVX 98.06 -1.36 -1.37% -1.93% -0.81% 0.35% 4.92% 13.06% 6.84% 21.72%
MMM 75.55 0.28 0.37% -2.52% -2.84% -2.80% -8.66% -3.66% -12.82% -11.16%
XOM 87.06 -1.55 -1.75% -2.52% -2.56% -3.17% -6.90% 1.27% -5.29% 6.17%
CAT 80.50 1.57 1.99% -2.70% -2.75% -2.72% 13.97% 6.98% 9.05% 3.10%
UTX 67.92 1.27 1.91% -2.93% -3.29% -9.63% -9.69% -0.41% -11.54% -2.51%
DD 46.31 0.42 0.92% -2.98% -3.12% -6.60% 5.88% -0.58% 1.00% -7.58%
HPQ 46.97 0.49 1.05% -3.17% 0.13% 2.91% -5.70% -0.63% -8.85% 4.24%
IBM 123.85 0.60 0.49% -3.60% -4.52% -2.88% 18.30% 5.79% 14.18% 21.02%
DIS 33.24 -0.03 -0.09% -3.62% -1.69% -4.48% 4.40% 5.83% 2.97% -0.95%
BA 74.12 0.81 1.10% -4.13% -9.73% -13.50% -14.43% 2.31% -14.73% -23.18%
PFE 17.73 0.18 1.03% -5.03% -8.61% -11.62% -22.61% -16.68% -25.54% -32.09%
HD 26.48 0.57 2.20% -5.12% -4.44% -9.07% 1.42% 1.34% -7.06% -29.12%
AA 37.74 -1.58 -4.02% -5.84% -6.45% -10.14% 4.46% -0.13% 2.33% -4.07%
VZ 36.63 -0.04 -0.11% -5.98% -4.53% -5.96% -15.23% 5.93% -18.49% -14.97%
C 19.89 0.68 3.54% -6.27% -9.75% -14.45% -31.22% -6.22% -36.80% -62.19%
GE 29.05 -0.78 -2.61% -6.47% -5.19% -10.64% -20.97% -14.46% -22.01% -21.59%
AIG 33.68 0.42 1.26% -7.50% -4.70% -14.60% -40.18% -22.84% -42.14% -52.92%
GM 15.76 -0.36 -2.23% -7.57% -9.32% -21.94% -35.44% -24.70% -42.40% -49.86%
INTC 22.05 0.24 1.10% -7.62% -4.71% -7.51% -13.02% 4.40% -19.17% -0.68%
T 36.39 0.25 0.69% -7.78% -9.48% -8.13% -11.24% 3.03% -12.75% -6.88%
BAC 29.44 0.60 2.08% -7.97% -14.91% -20.00% -27.42% -20.50% -32.21% -40.72%
AXP 43.42 0.83