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June 13, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Jun 13, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Yesterday, an early pull-back in the oil price plus Morgan Stanley's financial sector upgrade, and a better-than-anticipated retail sales number for May, combined to zoom stocks about +120 DJIA points in about a half hour at the open. Later oil prices rebounded, and the DJIA plunged until 3:30, following which there was a +70 point mini-rally into the close.
The DJIA (+57.81 +0.48% to 12141.58), S&P 500 (+4.38 +0.33% to 1339.87), and Nasdaq Composite (+10.34 +0.43% to 2404.35) were lifted by Banks ($BKX) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD). Hospitals ($RXH +2.8%) were strong. The commodity-based sectors (XLE -1.52%) pulled the market down.
Cara 100 winners on the day were ABV +8.7%, Indian banks IBN +8.1% and HDB +4.4% and QCOM +5.8%. Losers were YHOO -10.1%, GFI -5.5%, SU -4.0% and SNDK -3.3%.
In M&A news, Yahoo (YHOO) announced Microsoft (MSFT) is no longer interested in pursuing a deal, and is now seeking help from Google, it’s main competitor. As reported yesterday, Inbev (ABV) made a $46.4 billion offer for Anheuser-Busch (BUD).
On the economics front, US May retail sales lifted +1.0% and sales ex-auto's grew +1.2%, beating expectations, but also rising with rebate checks underlying the strength in both figures. Import prices for May grew +2.3%. The US labor market continues to soften as jobless claims grew +25,000 last week to 384,000.
As some traders perceived this economics data to be positive, the US Dollar posted a broad-based advance against all currencies. The $USD closed up +0.81% to 73.85, while the Euro dropped -0.64% to 1.5436, the Yen -1.08% to 92.67, the British Pound -0.82% to 1.9469, and the Cdn Dollar -0.73% to 97.65.
US Treasury selling continued as the $USB dropped a further -1.04% to 112.94. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up to 4.225 and on the T-Bill it’s at 1.950.
By the end of the session, however, Crude Oil rebounded to close at $137.38, up +$1.00/bbl on news the Nigerian government will take over the operations of a Royal Dutch Shell joint venture.
With the higher oil prices, the US Airlines ($UAL) were hit again, falling -2.42%, and the Goldminers ($XAU) lost -2.43%, not liking the stronger $USD or the pounding of the $GOLD price (-$10.90/oz to 872.00).
This morning, the $USD futures are stronger again, with the Euro futures down to 1.5338. Precious metal prices are all over the board as palladium (449) is up sharply and platinum (2032) a bit stronger, while silver is a bit weaker (16.53) and gold is down to 866.93.
Crude oil prices are down -0.99/bbl to 135.75.
The equity futures are up +58 to 12214.
Comments & Outlook
This week is a tough one for independent traders. There seems to be an inordinate amount of intervention by central banks, pushing the $USD higher, trying to break the backs of the commodity players. That strength was incongruent with the higher inflation data that was reported yesterday, which makes me believe the Fed played a role in the opening rally.
But traders should note there have been a number of 52-week lows in the Cara 100, from General Electric (GE -2.6% to 29.05, hitting 28.89!) to some golds, food, drugs, and airlines, which is pretty much across the board, reflecting the fact this is a Bear market.
What appear to be on the lift are a few consumer discretionary spending stocks that have benefitted from the tax rebate in the US, which is the gift from Treasury.
As far as the move yesterday in the Financials, I’m not impressed. I figure this was one bank (Morgan Stanley) scratching the back of many of its peers.
Have a good day. Hopefully superstition (Friday the 13th) won’t affect your trading.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| ABV | 70.000 | +5.600 | +8.7 | 5.9M |
| IBN | 35.280 | +2.650 | +8.1 | 4.8M |
| QCOM | 48.980 | +2.670 | +5.8 | 42.8M |
| HDB | 84.110 | +3.560 | +4.4 | 753.3K |
| INFY | 46.430 | +1.540 | +3.4 | 3.2M |
| AMAT | 19.360 | +0.630 | +3.4 | 43.6M |
| BBD | 21.930 | +0.690 | +3.2 | 10.6M |
| KSS | 43.880 | +1.290 | +3 | 6.2M |
| MBT | 83.050 | +2.200 | +2.7 | 1.4M |
| GS | 166.750 | +4.350 | +2.7 | 11.8M |
| CHA | 59.130 | +1.450 | +2.5 | 310.2K |
| PDA | 59.680 | +1.440 | +2.5 | 366.9K |
| CHL | 68.750 | +1.650 | +2.5 | 3.1M |
| UBS | 23.090 | +0.470 | +2.1 | 6.3M |
| ATVI | 33.880 | +0.680 | +2 | 2.3M |
| JCP | 38.180 | +0.750 | +2 | 4.3M |
| IBKR | 32.660 | +0.630 | +2 | 526.5K |
| UTX | 67.920 | +1.270 | +1.9 | 8M |
| OXPS | 23.350 | +0.390 | +1.7 | 705K |
| SBUX | 17.820 | +0.250 | +1.4 | 8.6M |
| GOOG | 552.950 | +7.750 | +1.4 | 5.5M |
| DELL | 23.780 | +0.330 | +1.4 | 29M |
| SWK | 46.890 | +0.590 | +1.3 | 487.4K |
| WHR | 66.140 | +0.820 | +1.3 | 1M |
| CTSH | 34.570 | +0.420 | +1.2 | 3.5M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| YHOO | 23.520 | -2.630 | -10.1 | 121.8M |
| GFI | 11.060 | -0.640 | -5.5 | 10.3M |
| LEH | 22.700 | -1.050 | -4.4 | 173M |
| SU | 64.580 | -2.700 | -4 | 5M |
| SNDK | 23.680 | -0.800 | -3.3 | 10.5M |
| TOT | 81.070 | -2.480 | -3 | 3.4M |
| GE | 29.050 | -0.780 | -2.6 | 95M |
| IMO | 56.750 | -1.520 | -2.6 | 269.4K |
| ABX | 38.590 | -1.020 | -2.6 | 6.9M |
| WBK | 100.750 | -2.260 | -2.2 | 22.1K |
| GG | 38.460 | -0.840 | -2.1 | 7.1M |
| DEO | 75.020 | -1.610 | -2.1 | 3.5M |
| ECA | 89.640 | -1.700 | -1.9 | 3.6M |
| XOM | 87.060 | -1.550 | -1.7 | 32.2M |
| RIMM | 129.590 | -2.200 | -1.7 | 15.3M |
| TGP | 28.370 | -0.460 | -1.6 | 62.7K |
| NTES | 21.050 | -0.330 | -1.5 | 694.6K |
| BHP | 79.220 | -1.130 | -1.4 | 4.5M |
| CVX | 98.060 | -1.360 | -1.4 | 13.2M |
| SLW | 13.500 | -0.180 | -1.3 | 1.8M |
| BMY | 19.670 | -0.260 | -1.3 | 13.1M |
| MFC | 36.820 | -0.370 | -1 | 1.1M |
| NKE | 66.780 | -0.660 | -1 | 3M |
| COST | 68.200 | -0.670 | -1 | 8.4M |
| ORCL | 21.860 | -0.210 | -1 | 35.1M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| GFI | 10.970 | 11.060 | -0.640 | -5.47 | 10.31M |
| GE | 28.890 | 29.050 | -0.780 | -2.61 | 95.02M |
| BMY | 19.559 | 19.670 | -0.260 | -1.30 | 13.12M |
| WFMI | 26.710 | 26.740 | -0.080 | -0.30 | 8.45M |
| GOL | 12.080 | 12.220 | +0.000 | +0.00 | 791.46K |
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| ABV | 70.000 | +8.7 | 5.9M | +466 |
| DEO | 75.020 | -2.1 | 3.5M | +328 |
| YHOO | 23.520 | -10.1 | 121.8M | +282 |
| LEH | 22.700 | -4.4 | 173M | +222 |
| PDA | 59.680 | +2.5 | 366.9K | +141 |
| QCOM | 48.980 | +5.8 | 42.8M | +99 |
| AMAT | 19.360 | +3.4 | 43.6M | +95 |
| GFI | 11.060 | -5.5 | 10.3M | +83 |
| TOT | 81.070 | -3 | 3.4M | +71 |
| HBC | 80.420 | +0.5 | 2.2M | +70 |
| GE | 29.050 | -2.6 | 95M | +62 |
| WFMI | 26.740 | -0.3 | 8.4M | +61 |
| BA | 74.120 | +1.1 | 9.6M | +50 |
| PTR | 130.480 | +0.8 | 1.6M | +49 |
| IBN | 35.280 | +8.1 | 4.8M | +46 |
| HDB | 84.110 | +4.4 | 753.3K | +46 |
| COST | 68.200 | -1 | 8.4M | +45 |
| BBBY | 29.090 | +0.6 | 7M | +45 |
| UTX | 67.920 | +1.9 | 8M | +40 |
| GS | 166.750 | +2.7 | 11.8M | +29 |
| GOOG | 552.950 | +1.4 | 5.5M | +27 |
| RIO | 34.520 | +0.2 | 33.8M | +26 |
| CHA | 59.130 | +2.5 | 310.2K | +26 |
| TEF | 81.560 | +0.5 | 597K | +25 |
| BBD | 21.930 | +3.2 | 10.6M | +21 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| ATVI | Wedbush Morgan | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Strong Buy |
| CCJ | UBS Securities | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Buy |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| ABV | CSFB | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Neutral |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| LEH | Merrill Lynch | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GGB | 48.38 | 91.25 | 72.89 | 44.16 | |
| SYT | 61.65 | 90.66 | 58.59 | 45.87 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $63.52, -2.94% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| ATVI | 33.88 | 87.10 | 80.38 | 55.33 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $33.80, +0.24% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| PBR | 66.51 | 84.60 | 56.11 | 40.66 | |
| ECA | 89.64 | 83.41 | 64.97 | 44.64 | |
| WMT | 59.11 | 78.32 | 68.48 | 57.86 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-06 at $58.37, +1.27% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| SU | 64.58 | 78.02 | 60.83 | 37.99 | |
| NKE | 66.78 | 78.00 | 52.78 | 43.02 | |
| EXC | 87.70 | 77.41 | 61.16 | 48.05 | |
| TT | 46.49 | 76.65 | 65.62 | 56.92 | |
| PDA | 59.68 | 75.53 | 65.11 | 51.29 | |
| TS | 62.55 | 73.57 | 73.74 | 53.01 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-10 at $63.23, -1.08% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| QCOM | 48.98 | 73.37 | 81.28 | 60.76 | |
| STO | 37.73 | 73.11 | 65.26 | 47.06 | |
| RIMM | 129.59 | 72.03 | 56.74 | 34.83 | |
| CVX | 98.06 | 70.49 | 60.37 | 43.71 | |
| DELL | 23.78 | 53.79 | 77.02 | 65.96 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 23.09 | 19.98 | 19.30 | 34.34 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $23.09, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| ERJ | 31.45 | 20.79 | 13.09 | 11.10 | Accumulation Zone (for 8 days) |
| BC | 13.08 | 22.64 | 23.29 | 30.87 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-12 at $13.08, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| BDK | 59.68 | 23.37 | 23.51 | 28.61 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| BMY | 19.67 | 24.08 | 28.37 | 15.67 | Accumulation Zone (for 3 days) |
| GE | 29.05 | 24.85 | 21.82 | 23.18 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| GOL | 12.22 | 25.85 | 20.86 | 15.53 | Accumulation Zone (for 3 days) |
| WFMI | 26.74 | 27.80 | 25.77 | 26.82 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| DB | 95.03 | 28.04 | 12.50 | 15.52 | Accumulation Zone (for 3 days) |
| SBUX | 17.82 | 28.78 | 50.87 | 53.36 | |
| SNDK | 23.68 | 32.15 | 34.68 | 18.56 | |
| GSK | 41.60 | 32.89 | 33.76 | 26.75 | |
| WHR | 66.14 | 33.39 | 27.92 | 27.51 | |
| GFI | 11.06 | 34.09 | 22.47 | 12.33 | |
| KB | 59.03 | 34.14 | 38.68 | 27.52 | |
| NOK | 25.77 | 35.34 | 24.59 | 27.82 | |
| DEO | 75.02 | 35.73 | 20.05 | 27.77 | |
| BA | 74.12 | 36.45 | 31.97 | 27.31 | |
| IBN | 35.28 | 37.03 | 22.00 | 44.14 | |
| YHOO | 23.52 | 37.91 | 26.74 | 15.16 | |
| ERTS | 45.99 | 38.33 | 28.91 | 24.13 | |
| HDB | 84.11 | 40.75 | 22.21 | 33.42 | |
| BBBY | 29.09 | 41.07 | 36.26 | 23.86 | |
| CHA | 59.13 | 45.32 | 34.16 | 28.85 | |
| RY | 47.31 | 47.46 | 41.40 | 23.46 | |
| HBC | 80.42 | 47.71 | 40.12 | 25.12 | |
| CHL | 68.75 | 48.14 | 28.55 | 30.53 | |
| VIP | 30.58 | 54.50 | 40.50 | 28.49 | |
| NTES | 21.05 | 55.03 | 44.81 | 27.75 | |
| LLTC | 33.55 | 55.28 | 46.61 | 20.88 | |
| RIO | 34.52 | 59.09 | 35.06 | 22.54 | |
| CHRW | 58.82 | 59.45 | 44.03 | 25.59 | |
| BHP | 79.22 | 61.58 | 46.51 | 23.51 | |
| ABB | 29.67 | 64.12 | 48.77 | 22.83 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
