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June 6, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Jun 06, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Despite the spike in Crude Oil prices ($WTIC +$5.49 to 127.79), which was said to be caused by a short squeeze, plus S&P downgrades to Ambac and MBIA, the DJIA (+213.97 +1.73% to 12604.45), S&P 500 (+26.83 +1.95% to 1404.05), and NASDAQ Composite (+46.80 +1.87% to 2549.94) were very bullish on the day.

Commodity-linked sectors (XLE +5.2%) (XLB +3.4%), Technology (XLK +2.1%), and Financials (XLF +2.0%) pulled the US equity market higher. The weakest sector was Industrials (XLI), but there was a substantial gain there.

Probably the major impetus for the session rally was the better-than-expected monthly retail sales data in the US. Retailers reported mostly strong chain store sales for May. Wal-Mart (WMT), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and Costco (COST) had strong reports, thanks to the so-called tax rebate program.

Of the industry groups that were strongest, the Airlines ($XAL +6.3%), Oil Services ($OSX +4.8%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +4.3%) led the pack. There were no negative industry groups.

For the Cara 100 companies, Tenaris (TS +9.5%), which produces steel pipe for the oil producers and drillers, Nucor Steel (NUE +8.6%), Gerdau Steel (GGB +7.2%) and UBS (UBS +6.9%) were strong. The weakest were Garmin (GRMN -2.3%) and Yahoo (YHOO -1.8%). Only six of the 100 were down.

On the economics front, the weekly jobless claims fell 18K to 357K, which was a positive. The Canadian unemployment is reported as being 6.1% of the work force.

On the M&A front, Verizon (VZ) announced it will purchase Alltel (AT) for $28.1 billion in cash and stock.

The US Dollar plunged following hawkish inflation comments from ECB President Trichet. The $USD dropped -0.61% to 73.04. The Euro gained +1.0%.

Yields on US Treasuries lifted by +1.0% to 4.73 on the 30-year, by 2.2% to 4.025 on the 10-year. The 30-year bond closed down -0.87% to 114.25.

$GOLD futures dropped -$8.30/oz to 875.50. This morning, in the spot market, gold is up to 885.24 from yesterday morning’s 870.27. Palladium, platinum and silver are at 429, 2052, and 17.20 respectively.

The Euro is at 1.5584 today compared to just 1.5385 at this time yesterday. The Crude Oil futures are even stronger than yesterday’s close, at 129.60/bbl compared to 122.58 yesterday morning.

The DJIA futures are modestly higher (+4) to 12622.

Overnight in Asia-Pacific equity markets, the Aussie All-Ords jumped +1.02%, and the Nikkei of Japan was up +1.03%. Hong Kong was also up a bit, while shanghai and India were down -0.66% and -1.25% respectively.


Comments & Outlook

Every time the market looks nervous, there seems to be an undue focus on one of the key economic reports. Today is US Jobs Friday. Regardless of the data, there will be spin in the air.

The $USD is weak, so gold prices are up.


The KINGZ/Cara managed forex account performance has been updated. This net, net return on invested capital for the client is excellent.

The performance for May-08 was +4.93%; resulting in a 3 month simple return=11.21% (11.62% compounded), and 12-month simple return=43.61% (53.24% compounded).

The performance for Apr-08 was +3.79%; resulting in a 3 month simple return=10.11% (10.45% compounded), and 12-month simple return=39.68% (47.50% compounded).

Hopefully, the chart on the website sidebar will be updated today.


Finally, the table of Cara 100 M-W-D RSI-7 studies done by korvus are now correct and can be accessed here. Just hit go!

In time, we will increase the sophistication of this tool.

Have a great day. Mine is a public holiday. I’m off to the beach. I’m told I need the time off!

I feel so guilty. :-)


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
TS 64.890 +5.640 +9.5 4.4M
NUE 80.540 +6.400 +8.6 12.7M
LEH 33.850 +2.450 +7.8 74.6M
GGB 51.480 +3.480 +7.2 3.3M
UBS 25.400 +1.630 +6.9 15.1M
IBKR 34.720 +1.980 +6 789.6K
INFY 49.370 +2.680 +5.7 5.8M
IBN 36.950 +1.930 +5.5 3.2M
HDB 93.520 +4.430 +5 749.2K
VCP 34.930 +1.600 +4.8 567.5K
PBR 68.530 +3.130 +4.8 14.9M
TOT 85.800 +3.680 +4.5 2.1M
STO 37.420 +1.500 +4.2 1.7M
XOM 89.310 +3.560 +4.2 29.4M
CVX 99.990 +3.950 +4.1 13.9M
RIO 38.710 +1.480 +4 27.8M
OXPS 23.610 +0.880 +3.9 990.5K
ABX 40.430 +1.480 +3.8 8.3M
COST 73.500 +2.690 +3.8 6.1M
CEO 174.110 +6.370 +3.8 683.3K
SU 67.130 +2.420 +3.7 5.4M
KSS 46.930 +1.690 +3.7 8.8M
WMT 59.800 +2.120 +3.7 34.9M
MBT 88.110 +3.110 +3.7 1.7M
CHA 64.920 +2.290 +3.7 238.4K

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
GRMN 52.680 -1.260 -2.3 3.6M
YHOO 26.360 -0.490 -1.8 30.1M
NOK 26.780 -0.330 -1.2 23.8M
BA 77.310 -0.710 -0.9 5.8M
ADBE 43.890 -0.360 -0.8 7.2M
PDA 59.920 -0.180 -0.3 183.9K

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
TS 65.010 64.890 +5.640 +9.52 4.45M
VCP 35.000 34.930 +1.600 +4.80 567.46K
WMT 59.900 59.800 +2.120 +3.68 34.86M
ATVI 34.570 34.500 +0.380 +1.11 2.20M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NOK 26.360 26.780 -0.330 -1.22 23.82M
ERJ 34.340 34.710 +0.100 +0.29 609.49K
GFI 12.080 12.560 +0.300 +2.45 6.01M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
TT 46.490 +0 6.3M +161
LEH 33.850 +7.8 74.6M +129
UBS 25.400 +6.9 15.1M +113
WMT 59.800 +3.7 34.9M +92
TS 64.890 +9.5 4.4M +91
NUE 80.540 +8.6 12.7M +88
HDB 93.520 +5 749.2K +73
INFY 49.370 +5.7 5.8M +73
CSCO 27.540 +2.9 78M +58
TM 106.740 +2 899K +53
NKE 70.070 +3.5 4.9M +51
BC 14.200 +2.6 2.9M +47
KSS 46.930 +3.7 8.8M +44
PAYX 34.000 +1.2 4.4M +43
NOK 26.780 -1.2 23.8M +41
ABB 32.690 +1.6 5.3M +40
GOL 14.600 +1.4 1M +40
OXPS 23.610 +3.9 990.5K +40
ADBE 43.890 -0.8 7.2M +38
JCP 40.560 +3 6.4M +36
CEO 174.110 +3.8 683.3K +29
IBKR 34.720 +6 789.6K +27
GS 176.600 +2.6 9.7M +24
WAG 36.700 +1 5.9M +23
AET 47.490 +2.1 4.1M +22

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
GFI Matrix --- --- Sell Hold
GSK Matrix --- --- Hold Buy
LEH Merrill Lynch --- --- Underperform Buy
WFMI FTN Midwest Res --- 38.00 Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
ADBE SG Cowen --- --- Outperform Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
BMY SG Cowen --- --- Outperform Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
PBR68.5390.1761.5346.83
GGB51.4888.4191.8466.44Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, +3.81% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI34.5087.5689.0280.45Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
SYT64.6584.5375.4373.63Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
NUE80.5482.9367.6669.06
PDA59.9280.3866.2044.37Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-06-02 at $63.80, -6.08% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
ECA90.6980.2967.0651.49
WMT59.8080.2973.5776.40Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
NKE70.0778.1968.5872.40
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
EXC89.6976.4174.0563.13Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, +0.98% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
TS64.8976.2986.6474.27Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
RIMM135.5976.1367.9050.57
VCP34.9375.9167.0979.35
ABB32.6975.8484.6859.70
QCOM49.3974.4586.1167.22Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-30 at $48.54, +1.75% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
SU67.1373.1369.5450.01Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $68.68, -2.26% chg], after a 12 day DZ)
STO37.4272.3564.1743.82Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $39.07, -4.22% chg], after a 7 day DZ)
BBD23.4672.2576.3155.27
COST73.5071.9864.9563.42
BHP84.2071.5357.7940.34
RIO38.7171.4755.7941.83
CVX99.9971.1067.9155.95
ORCL23.1869.0573.2474.25
IBKR34.7267.4466.7278.61
LLTC36.4466.3479.6851.92
INFY49.3762.4379.1471.19
ADBE43.8960.3282.0967.00
CTSH36.7856.9073.2780.00
CSCO27.5455.6572.4275.22
DELL24.0253.7680.4484.35
OXPS23.6145.4061.5973.18
TM106.7445.0860.3373.32
WAG36.7042.5056.2571.86
SBUX18.5232.8559.3473.49

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
UBS25.4020.7723.4542.46Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-05 at $25.40, +0.00% chg], after a 7 day AZ)
ERJ34.7121.1818.1822.03Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
BC14.2022.8329.8840.97Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-05 at $14.20, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WFMI29.7325.9935.7458.42Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, +3.62% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
GOL14.6027.1432.9140.15
DB103.4833.7418.3021.65
NOK26.7834.3428.0722.76
IBN36.9536.9825.0438.96
BA77.3139.2838.5520.92


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
HPQ 48.51 1.70 3.63% 3.41% 8.28% -0.29% -2.61% 0.41% -6.10% 5.64%
WMT 59.80 2.12 3.68% 3.21% 8.27% 5.23% 27.51% 20.69% 22.29% 18.37%
INTC 23.87 0.39 1.66% 3.15% 0.89% 3.02% -5.84% 18.17% -12.31% 8.70%
AIG 36.41 0.69 1.93% 3.03% -2.80% -19.23% -35.33% -18.38% -37.39% -49.65%
DIS 34.49 0.14 0.41% 2.01% 2.47% -0.61% 8.32% 9.01% 5.31% -2.21%
PG 66.67 0.22 0.33% 1.83% 2.30% 1.32% -7.80% -0.04% -9.67% 5.06%
VZ 38.96 1.98 5.35% 1.54% 4.67% 1.78% -9.84% 8.37% -12.49% -8.89%
AXP 47.43 1.79 3.92% 1.45% 4.29% -2.61% -7.07% 12.31% -18.13% -26.79%
GE 31.06 0.61 2.00% 1.37% 0.10% -4.64% -15.51% -7.75% -15.39% -16.95%
CVX 99.99 3.95 4.11% 1.14% -2.94% 4.94% 6.99% 12.61% 11.97% 20.86%
JNJ 66.96 0.41 0.62% 0.81% 1.87% 0.07% 1.59% 6.07% -1.83% 5.77%
HD 27.91 0.73 2.69% 0.72% 3.64% -2.28% 6.89% 4.30% -3.66% -28.18%
MSFT 28.30 0.76 2.76% -0.04% 0.18% -3.12% -19.65% 0.64% -17.13% -7.46%
XOM 89.31 3.56 4.15% -0.04% -4.65% 0.55% -4.49% 2.43% -0.68% 5.99%
CAT 82.73 0.27 0.33% -0.06% -0.80% 1.35% 17.13% 15.14% 13.78% 5.19%
MRK 38.89 0.72 1.89% -0.08% -0.61% -0.31% -32.21% -10.08% -34.53% -24.40%
DD 47.73 0.96 2.05% -0.15% -1.59% -1.67% 9.12% 0.91% 2.21% -8.63%
MMM 77.50 1.14 1.49% -0.33% 1.81% 1.07% -6.30% -1.81% -7.47% -11.39%
UTX 69.97 0.71 1.03% -0.37% -2.85% -4.19% -6.97% 0.34% -8.95% -1.10%
AA 40.08 1.18 3.03% -0.64% -3.88% 5.22% 10.93% 3.54% 12.55% -1.26%
IBM 128.47 0.92 0.72% -0.96% 4.04% 3.49% 22.71% 11.34% 18.78% 21.38%
KO 57.19 0.49 0.86% -1.18% 0.95% 0.28% -6.38% -4.17% -9.29% 9.31%
T 39.46 0.96 2.49% -1.84% 1.47% 1.65% -3.76% 11.31% 2.71% -2.54%
GM 17.05 0.04 0.24% -1.90% -10.83% -20.33% -30.15% -25.77% -39.32% -43.43%
MCD 58.05 0.07 0.12% -2.40% -1.24% -2.24% -0.09% 7.62% -2.45% 14.16%
JPM 42.10 0.47 1.13% -3.37% -0.87% -9.60% -0.17% 8.67% -6.24% -17.81%
C 21.22 0.14 0.66% -3.72% 0.76% -13.32% -26.63% -4.20% -37.01% -60.63%
PFE 18.67 -0.13 -0.69% -3.76% -5.37% -6.28% -18.51% -15.33% -22.14% -31.56%
BA 77.31 -0.71 -0.91% -5.85% -4.78% -8.56% -10.75% -4.21% -14.76% -22.30%
BAC 31.99 0.00 0.00% -7.54% -8.18% -15.82% -21.13% -14.81% -29.27% -36.85%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLB 45.48 1.60 3.65% 2.90% 1.79% 5.38% 10.12% 9.51% 8.54% 10.71%
XLE 87.52 4.13 4.95% 2.82% -1.72% 5.12% 10.09% 13.07%