"We got another confirming Hindenburg Omen observation Tuesday, June 17th, the third since June 6th, and we continue to have an official Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signal on the clock. Getting a third does not make the risk of a crash any greater than had we just two, however it does drive home the point this remains an unhealthy market, and it is no aberration.

There is an approximate 25 percent probability that we will see a full blown stock market crash within the next 120 days, taking us into a risk zone through October 2008. This is significant as the odds of getting a stock market crash on any given random day is less than one-tenth of one percent. Further, we can tell you that there has not been a stock market crash over the past 25 years without a confirmed H.O. The odds of a significant stock market decline that is not a crash is higher than 25 percent. For those of you looking for more details, go to our Guest Articles section and read our last article on the H.O. NYSE New 52 week Highs were 107, with New Lows at 95, the lower of the two being 2.92 percent of total issues traded Tuesday, which were 3,244, above the 2.20 percent threshold. The first of these three observations was June 6th. The second was June 16th. This is the first confirmed H.O. since October 2007, which led to a mini-crash." -Robert McHugh,

http://headlinecharts.blog.com/

[Bill Cara note: Who is this and why publish the link here without commenting? It appears to everybody that it's just a plug for another site, and one that apparently excludes BillCara.com from its blogroll. This Community doesn't mind publishing whatever you think is good stuff, but do us the favor please of adding your own comments. Next time, I'll just delete an item like this because it's not Discourse. Same goes for the plug quoting of McHugh. If you happen to have a comment on McHugh's work, fine, but I think it's little more than over-the-top advertising, and more of the kind of noise in the market that I try to avoid. Sorry to be so harsh, but time is precious and I don't like to see others waste mine.]

kaimu - Thought you would be interested in this snip and link. Not just $US being rejected at various places currently.

" ... Ordinary Germans have begun to reject euro bank notes with serial numbers from Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, raising concerns that public support for monetary union may be waning in the eurozone's anchor country. ... "
http://tinyurl.com/42keok

People getting impatient...
http://tinyurl.com/44d7lr

Protests in Asia...and oil ticks higher this morning.

http://tinyurl.com/6ots4h

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/4083580.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2129281.stm

Sorry, those last 2 links were old. My apologies! But, I think that is what will soon happen again if not already!

WSJ online headlines:

Australia's prime minister said the government is ready to take emergency control over the nation's oil stocks to meet energy shortages in Western Australia caused by an explosion at a natural-gas plant. 4:23 a.m.

Asian markets ended mostly higher as Shanghai surged more than 5% on bargain-hunting, fueling gains in Hong Kong and Seoul. 6:49 a.m.

http://online.wsj.com/page/2_0004.html

Muddling through the fundamentals ... A shrinking economy bodes ill for corporate earnings and current indications are that the S&P 500 Index’s earnings could be down by as much as 30% to 40% in year-ago terms by the end of Q2 2008.

The key to assessing valuation levels, however, is to get a grip on the forward numbers. This post analyses this aspect and concludes that it would be irrational to bank on above-average returns from these valuation levels. A muddle-through outlook seems to be what the US stock market has in store.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/6l387v

Enjoy the read.

BOOMER615

Thanks for the link last night to the article

"RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert"

There are some scary times ahead!

Bill, thanks for the heads up and the pointer to the RBS article. I wonder how RBS, themselves, are doing, since they own Citizen's Bank here, in New England, and around the US. Found the last sentence in the article very interesting, "Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year." I hope we don't have to wait that long for oil to come down. Hope your leg is feeling better.

QT-

"scary times ahead" translates into trading opportunities...short oil/long china (short oil plays are actually long trades on refiners/airlines, someone even mentioned china's become a short oil play)-> that's how i'm positioned for the mid-term...plenty of powder ready for shorter-term plays on gold and interest rates...

Mr Cara

I just saw that you posted the same article [Party's Over] as BOONER615 did last night.
In future posts would it be possible for you to lay out some possible game plans on how we could protect our wealth from a future crash?

2nd

What you say is true if there are people buying. But in a crash aren't people just trying to get out. Afterwards may be a different story but I suspect there will be few buyers for some time.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrade:

INFY - to Neutral @ Susquehanna Financial

Target Price Raised:

RIMM - from $145 to $165 @ Lehman Bros.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

'few buyers' is exactly how those few are going to amass fortunes should a crash occur...of course, i don't think it's going to happen...but if you're going into total capital preservation mode, then searching the archives should provide plenty of advice...cash is good start, preferably in a swiss bank account...in the US, keep balances below FIDC/SIPC limits...

Options Auto Exercise changed. This is from my broker May or not apply to others.

As of June 2008, both the Canadian and U.S. Clearing Corporations have modified the Auto Exercise Limit for Canadian and U.S. based options which will decrease to $0.01 from the current level of $0.05 and will be effective with the June 2008 option expiry. All June 2008 option positions as at the close of trading on June 20, 2008 will have this limit applied for the option expiry cycle.

All option positions in the money by $0.01 or more will be automatically exercised by the exchange unless specific instructions to abandon a position are received by 3:30 p.m., the day before expiry.

Bill,

Thanks for the link to Bob Janjuah's comments. It's nice to see someone, besides yourself, not afraid to tell it like it is.

Regards

[Bill Cara note: The problems at HB&B are starting to show more each week. Increasingly analysts will have to report and opine or else they will lose all credibility. That negative reportage will tip the scales.

This morning WSJ has reported some alarming news, as follows:

Morgan Stanley reported a 60% decline in second-quarter net income as the Wall Street giant continued to struggle with difficult credit-market conditions. Fixed-income sales and trading net revenues were $414 million, down 85% from last year's second quarter. Morgan Stanley shares fell about 4% in premarket trade.

Separately, Fifth Third Bancorp said it plans to raise about $1 billion in an offering of convertible preferred stock, becoming the latest regional bank to take steps in boosting capital levels as credit losses continue to mount. Fifth Third shares fell more than 14% in premarket trading.

The developments, along with a gloomy outlook from FedEx, put early pressure on stock-index futures.]

...(as kaimu has pointed out, ultra-short ETFs provide no protection in that scenario, as they may go under as well...if you want to play a short strategy, i would short the actual securities you have in mind, which puts cash into accounts, right)...

into YOUR accounts...

(i also happen to think that in a complete crash scenario, your ingenuity and a clear head will be your most valuable asset...it would be entirely possible to compress a lifetime of earnings into a couple of years...)

[Bill Cara note: Agreed. Common sense says there is nothing wrong with holding cash (despite the erosion of inflation) while waiting out a storm. I think when the market has reached the Accumulation Zone and Buy alerts are starting to pop up, this community will have the ammunition ready to make some serious gains. The problem with the 2000-2002 Bear was that when the market was ready to pop, most people had been wiped out and couldn't participate in the rally that followed (ie, the Bull that started in the US in 4Q02).]

assetS..

SiO2,

You might be interested in this news item regarding Arctic Glacier, if you haven't seen it:

http://tinyurl.com/5rmzu6

Regards

XLF headed for a test of the march 17th low...(ditto for UYG)...

Kaimu provides excellent advice in yesterday's discourse.

Do consider buying materials that will be more expensive later. I have a sling of T-111 I bought in the 80's that has more than tripled in value waiting for my new building. I'm also holding timber, uh, on the root (hoof?)in live trees and acreage. Bought a 10,000lbs dump trailer that won't get cheaper and I always buy additional wire, pipe, fittings, screws, nails, etc. since those items are always in short supply on the farm and I don't want to blow the budget driving to town for a silly fitting or box of screws.
I bought my chest freezer in the last inflationary recession and it comes in handy if you find bargains on food that freezes.

I did drive mom's Subaru outback back here from Califoria as she won't be driving anymore and it got over 31 mpg at 80mph in the central valley.
Californians are still pushing pretty hard on the old gas pedal....you gotta keep up.

craig- congrats on making it through the central valley at 80mph with 4.50/gal gas and before new speeding laws take effect july 1...

Bought SRS, AUY, and looking to buy some QID.

Crash scenario extra:
John Paulson, founder of hedge fund Paulson & Co., said global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion, exceeding the International Monetary Fund's $945 billion estimate.

``We're only about a third of the way through the writedowns,'' Paulson, 52, told the GAIM International hedge fund conference in Monaco today. ``There are a lot of problems out there and it will continue to be felt through the year. We don't see any signs of stabilizing.''
http://tinyurl.com/5allvk

2nd - what are the new speeding laws - careful though I am, those tickets always seem to find me.

craig- make that new 'fines,' here's what i have:

New Driving Fines for 2008 for State of California
1. Carpool lane - 1st time $1068.50 starting 7/1/08 (The $271 posted on
the highway is old). Don't do it again because 2nd time is going to be
double. 3rd time triple, and 4th time license suspended.

2. Incorrect lane change - $380. Don't cross the lane on solid lines or
intersections.

3. Block intersection - $485

4. Driving on the shoulder - $450

5. Cell phone use in the construction zone. - Double fine as of
07/01/08. Cell phone use must be "hands free" while driving.

6. Passengers over 18 not in their seatbelts - both passengers and
drivers get tickets.

7. Speeders can only drive 3 miles above the limit.

8. DUI = JAIL (Stays on your driving record for 10 years!)

9. As of 07/01/08 cell phone use must be "hands free" while driving.
Ticket is $285.

(hope the above is not another one of those 'urban legend' postings-> it was emailed to me by a colleague...)

If only we could buy stock in the CHP

But officer, I was just keeping with the flow of traffic.....

What else is there to do between Grapevine and Sacramento but hurry? LOL.

BullH, thx a lot. Doesn't read like good news. I am still holding it though, +22% and it keeps going up, $10 today.

Cara 100 Update:

GS - Target Price Raised from $185 to $190 @ UBS

Craig you might want to start loading that freezer now because it looks like meat, fowl prices will rise next fall.

Recall recently ranchers are driving cattle, hogs to market because of the high cost of feed. Canada also had a program to pay hog farmers for slaughtering their stock. Result are short term lower prices, but look out later this year! The Labor Day BBQ may be more expensive.

Heard somewhere this a.m. a levee north of Quincy, IL broke along the Misissippi and something like another 33,000 corn acres flooded and crop lost. Just another drop in the bucket!

2nd, thx for the update on CA traffic violations . . . will have to slow it down on next visit ;)

Opened CAF at 39.90 - surprised it didn't open higher considering the Shanghai move last night.

Continuing to hold SWC which is trying to make a turnaround this morning - Platinum/Palladium have been bouncing the last few days.

If CHP were a company it might worry you.
I saw maybe three from So. CA to the Oregon border. I saw five Oregon State Patrol at an accident that completely blocked SB I-5, but none from there to Portland and not one WSP from the bridge at Portland until I drove in my driveway. Most enforcement seems to be in the air. Those levels may change July 1st though and my brother is busy getting his bluetooth device all configured for hands free.

CAF- at a minimum, would need to be at 50 by august to put a smile on J6P in china...i think they can do it...

(if one were to be cynical, might even say beijing took the SSEC down to 2700 to 'reset' expectations-> now 4000 sounds good)...

(would bet at least one old-timer on the olympics committee suggested that rather than try to manufacture a rally from 3600 to 5000, why not manufacture a drop to 2700 and then take it up to 4000)...

CAF: I'm with you 2nd. Not a large position, but if it get's rolling I'll be adding.

TSO: coming to us...0.40 above the 52 wk low.

Just tried to go short lehman again, NO SHARES AVAILABLE FOR SHORTING...God I hate that.

Funny Erin Burnett quotes

"A lot of people like to say, uh, scaremonger about China, right? A lot of politicians, and I know you talk about that issue all the time. I think people should be careful what they wish for on China. Ya know, if China were to revalue it’s currency or China is to start making say, toys that don’t have lead in them or food that isn’t poisonous, their costs of production are going to go up and that means prices at Wal-Mart here in the United States are going to go up too. So, I would say China is our greatest friend right now, they’re keeping prices low and they’re keeping the prices for mortgages low, too.”

"Guys can unlock my heart by giving me round-trip, business-class tickets to Australia and New Zealand, sending a yoga instructor and personal chef to my apartment, and treating me and my sisters to a long-weekend spa"

shark- if there are no shares available for shorting you may want to trade the other way...

burnett- those are ridiculous comments, and that's not her heart they're unlocking...

So Erin has established her job, now we're down to dickering over price?

That's a new one..."hey sweety, you can unlock my, er, heart, for the right price, want a date?
How about with my sister?"

Be careful, that would be across state lines and we have seen how that ends....

It's not that there are no shares available because Lehman is a GOOD company 2nd, it's that everyone's shorted every share they can get their hands on because it's a war between truth (the shorts) and the scammer-jammers at Lehman. By way of illustration, there were also no shares avail a couple days ago when LEH was $27..Would you have liked to go long there?

I get your point though. And Erin is a charmer, isn't she?

There were shares of Lehman available to short yesterday at Schwab. There are also some decimated bank stocks that are available to short.

I found shares to short yesterday too.

By the way, you don't buy stocks in a downtrend. You only sell stocks in a downtrend. You buy stocks in an uptrend, it's the most basic principle of trading.

except in the case of a drop so severe that price recovery is both inevitable and palpable, as is occasionally your style.

Erin is a typical New York professional gal/guy. Mercenary to the core.

And the comment about warning of the "risk" of China not producing harmful products is one for the ages.

Bush really calmes the nation's nerves when he speaks about oil doesn't he? Hey I have an idea. Let's drill for oil on Bush's ranch in Texas and on his dad's place in Maine, and see what's under there.

Lets drill for oil on the Crawford ranch.

"Well the next thing you know 'ol shrubs a billionaire, kin folk said ""let's move away from there!...""

basic principles (and rules) are funny things->a lot rides on how you interpret and apply them...the most basic is to buy low and sell high-> to maximize the gains requires betting on a recovery at some point while it's still low...once an uptrend is established, then you're usually buying quite a bit higher...so that's a different trading style...

diversification is another basic principle...IMO, how much it helps you depends a lot on when you apply it...at age 65, it's a great idea...at age 25, it might set you back a few years...

i hope you picked up a little TSO today, craig...in a few months, i don't think you'll be disappointed...

The deadlock in Washington to extend tax credit for alternative energy made front page news in today's SF Chron.

The politics of this are just nauseating. Here is one of the most promising emerging industries, and the partisans in congress are doing their best to kill it. Especially awful given the state of the overall economy, increasing unemployment, and rocketing oil prices.

2nd......FWIW, I found this stock Calumet Specialty Products (ticker CLMT) while doing some research. A refiner of industrial solvents/chemicals (as opposed to fuels). The stock has been beaten senseless over the last 6-8 months due to crude prices of course. Insiders have made a number of purchases in the 2 months.

I'm certainly not saying its a buy right now - but I am putting it on my watch list. Still need to do some research, but looks interesting. Had paid a solid dividend in the good times but looks like it may have been reduced at a glance of yahoo divy data.

For everyone.....

If the report from RBS turns out to be true or even partial true what effect will it have on the ultra-short funds? Will they also go down
or will they sky rocket?

Craig,

Thanks for the response on the other day's chat. I totally have MAD respect for you and everyone else who contributes to this board with their open opinions.

I don't work for Exxon or any other oil conglomerate. Nor would I want too...
Besides why punish OUR big oil companies when private oil global enterprises only control 7% of the global supply as 93% is controlled by state owned companies...
It doesn't seem right to punish the minority when the majority by an overwhelming amount is who to blame.
link
http://tinyurl.com/4jdlor

Should we drill here?
IBD article about crude (warning - this rhetoric is a little to the right, but I am more interested in the facts and numbers of the article) What makes this a little more interesting is that all of this land is "federal land"

http://tinyurl.com/3r4bdz

Back to me...
If fact I would say I am a "true" republican not some crazied neocon conservative. I believe more of Paul's rhetoric. To add further light, I would say a lot of YOUR posts have opened my eye to the dichotomy of this world. The glass is half full and half empty and everyone has their agenda. (totally divided on who to vote for in this election, they both stink but the donkey seem to be getting an edge over the elephant)

Just want the facts that but from "presocratics"... appearance or perception is reality.

RE: Global warming with all of this "evidence" supporting either side of it.
What is the agenda?

More on Gore - remember He flies in a private jet everywhere he goes and i doubt that leaves a small carbon footprint.

http://tinyurl.com/49n53w

weather channel founder discussion about global warming.
Good and interesting

http://tinyurl.com/4mahjc

2nd,

When it comes to "this thing of ours", I always have complete respect for you...I'd kiss you on both cheeks if I could.

You are the Don of this family my friend. You never eat alone, you are no jamook. Many traders are mezza morta, but not you. You are a man of taste and distinction, and would never have a schifosa for your goomah. Anyone who stands in our way gets a Moe Green special(a shot in the eye). Many traders are Oobatz, not us my friend. To show my appreciation, I will bring you out for a sfogliatelle, or if you prefer, gabagool with vinegar peppers.

Comehere...lemme give you a kiss......

(ok i admit it this post is really "whacked")

by the way my lehman short woulda worked out good if i'd gotten the shares

Kaimu,

Blast from past....
Do you remember the article that you posted about Bush and the aquifer in Paraguay that they bought in 2005/6?

Was it 99k acres?

I cant find that article but i did read it a couple years ago..

sundance- thanks for bringing CLMT to our attention...half a million shares purchased by insiders...

shark- i have no idea what you're talking about, but thank you..

shark- btw, inviting you to buy SUN again...

Crawford ranch... why not drill the Whitehouse lawn? Maybe ol shrub will disclose what the Bush/Cheney energy policy was and why it appears to be a collossal failure... instead of more toothless political rethoric shifting blame...

It amazes me that people still try to discredit the overwhelming evidence of global warming by attacking its most visible spokesman.

And Ron Paul's refusal to acknowledge this issue with the same "head in the sand" libertarian denial lost him my consideration as a serious presidential candidate.

SUN is going down. All due respect, why do I want to buy a stock that's going down?

The richest one percent of this country owns half our country's wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It's bull#$%^. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own. We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price per paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of the hat while everybody sits out there wondering how the hell we did it. Now you're not naive enough to think we're living in a democracy, are you buddy? It's the free market. And you're a part of it. You've got that killer instinct. Stick around pal, I've still got a lot to teach you.

[Bill Cara note: Geez sharkie, and to think you used to spend your days in the library whining that TypeKey wouldn't work on your pc...]

Thank you Norm. I can respect a true Republican, I think we ultimately all want the same outcome, we may differ on the route slightly, but we all love this place and the planet.

I've been in that "perception is reality" position before and it is true. The trouble is when partisans twist that perception into something it isn't. I know Gore is a target as a result of his notoriety and his stand against some powerful foes, I just don't expect he is going to move into a 2200 SF stick house in the burbs, right?

And if he suggested downsizing to the degree that he did, then they would attack him as proposing we "go back to the stone age" as they have with others in the past. Remember the last time when Carter suggested lowering the thermostat and wearing a sweater? It's hard to make progress in that type of environment.

I just wanted to add some perspective.
I'm really glad you aren't employed by the oil barrons. I know they have their place and business to run, and it isn't in a vaccuum, they have many state run and subsidized enterprises to compete with. I agree with Kaimu's view that we will be hearing "drill" more than ever.
I can't say I think it's honest. They knew where this was going. All I do is follow the money and we all see where that is going.

I'm a realist and I'm done with the parties, they both pretty much dance to the same tune to cover their sorry butts. If they would both look at the other side of the ledger and be responsible stewards of the people's money we would all be better off.

My best to you.

Someone mentioned that yesterday's comment by Kaimu was worth reading.

I went back to read it. Thank you for pointing it out.

For the rest of you, you might look for it. It's near the end of yesterday's comments.

BTW, used to subscribe to IBD but couldn't stomach the ultra-conservative political bent.
I know what we do includes politics, but I'm looking to keep it to a low roar. :>)
I don't take WSJ anymore either for much the same reason. I'm a Sargeant Friday kind of guy..."just the facts ma'am."

shark- what did you put in your coffee, my man...i have to try some...

refiners-> topping off here...at 100% of allocation in SUN/VLO/TSO...(CAF @ 60%, airlines @ 40%, SMN @ 80%)...

anyone looking at UYG for a trade?

Shark- Are you sure you didn't go to Bonnaroo and try the shrooms with me?

I shorted GM back when it was around $23, then got out around $20...I knew I should of held on to that one...under $15 now!

Just holding on to DIA puts, FXP. Awaiting for the market to continue to fall.

2nd: I think it's a nice Italian espresso with a little nip of brandy, judging by the accent.

Hey,
I'm back after having lost phone and DSL from Friday until yesterday at 4:30. The downside to living in the country for sure. Today's posts are great form everyone.

Especially Bill's comments. It's amazing how much can happen in a few days.

Does anyone think that as many people are starting to call for a market crash or dislocation coming soon that the opposite could happen first?

Right now we seem to be really squeezing the longs that jumped on board since March.

I could easily see that train switching tracks for a couple of months soon.

Rob.

that's what i like about you, Rob...always looking for a change in the weather-> market's pretty fair..trapped bulls today, trapped bears tomorrow...

FWIW.....all day and every day there are 10K + shares of LEH available to short at Fidelity . I've checked nearly every day since Feb .

You might be right Rob, we seemed to bounce off support at approx. 12,000 (12024.98). We all probably expected to see that at the round number before we dig through on the way to the ground floor.
Now we're on contact with the 50DMA...let's see what happens.....

I see I'm going to get another shot at the SKF....it was a good trade this AM. SRS worked pretty good overnight now I'm out waiting for another chance.

2nd: TSO...made a new 52 wk low. Your style trade, against the grain. Fugly chart, a bit if a gamble, but I'm in.
Good luck to everyone.

My thoughts on gold & oil...

Once again my system is signaling a short-term buy on gold. Last time this popped up was late April with a call from 400 to 450 on the HUI. Looking for a similar move here over the next couple weeks. Going long via DGP (double long gold eft) around 21.

I am also personally pairing this trade with a long DUG (short oil services). Last time I got stopped out on the DUG portion for a small loss, hoping the pair works better this time. The timing system I use has DUG moving up to around 30 or so.

As always, think first.

Karl

Gabagool: (capo cuoll) something to eat.

Goomah (sometimes pronounced "goomar"): a Mafia mistress; also comare.

Jamook: idiot, loser, lamebrained, you know, a jamook.

Mezza morta: half-dead.

Schifosa: ugly woman.

Sfogliatelle: an Italian pastry.

shark- thank you, my man...

ALOHA !!

Ron Paul has his priorities right ... You can't do a damn thing about Terrorism, poverty or Social Security or GLOBAL WARMING if your currency is worthless!

We have to fix our money first otherwise nothing else matters ... I am amazed people do not understand this simple fact!

In a monetary crisis you can't even go to "cash"!

Erin who? I have no TV out here!

GFI - 52-week low @ 10.78

Karl - Perhaps you've done so in prior posts, but if not, would you mind outlining your system for our collective benefit?

"South Africa's Eskom tariff hike fuels inflation fears"
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKL1827998220080618

GFI - For the record, Fidelity shows a 100-share pre-market trade at 10.72 on June 13th.

RE:GFI

Just about every miner I follow w/ operations anywhere in Africa is just getting beaten senseless.

The continent of Africa is obviously very short of coal and considering that one of the U.S.'s most commonly exported grades of coal 12,500 MMBtu, 1.2# sulfur Appalchian coal is up close to 300% YoY, it is a scary situation as far as operational reliability is concerned for African miners.

On that note - the rise in Western PRB 8800 MMBtu, #0.8 which is a cheaper coal due to location and energy content per volume has been RELATIVELY tame compared to eastern US coal. THis would seem to bode RELATIVELY well for miners operating in the Western US. (I.E. the outlook for power prices is RELATIVELY stable)

I cannot stress the RELATIVELY part enough as the outlook for power costs is rising across the board for all miners all over the world.

On that note I am attracted to LIHR gold due to their ownership of a fairly large geothermal power producing plant.

Crash scenario extra#2
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has continued to warn of a possible second Great Depression. The Bank for International Settlements, the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s. In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.

2nd and Craig,
Thanks. I'm still holding my DUG calls, thinking oil will crack soon. We're flirting with a lower low on the DOW than last week's 12070. But not too close to the S&P 1331 low of last week yet.

I'm trying to figure out what most people are thinking to gauge how to place my next trades so I don't make the mistake of being on the crowd's side again.

I'm starting to think most people expect the market to keep crashing and maybe even dislocate. What we have to ask ourselves is how much does it have to run down to get enough people on the short side to fuel another run to 12800 or 13K?

Or what could the catalysts be to turn the market up again? The 300 Billion housing bailout passed by the senate could be one. If Congress changes their mind about off-shore drilling for oil because of public pressure, that could be another. Of course, the upcoming election being one is a given.

So which side are most people lined up on is still the main question we need answered to plan a successful strategy.

Rob.

Kaimu,
They're talking about the former?? CFO of Lehman.

You're dead on with the currency being the most important aspect of everything. I still think the media and power centers shut down Ron Paul because they weren't ready to end the spending binge. I still think the only way we'll end the spending binge is by having our credit cut off as individuals and as a country.

Overspending, especially if it's other people's money, is too powerful of an intoxicant for many people to give up easily.

They've lived above their means for so long they don't know how to budget and save.

We know a family who went bankrupt and were still ordering pizza and going out to dinner as their house was being foreclosed on and their wages were being garnished for taxes owed.

I also know many other people who claim that it's not their fault they're so far in debt. They say the banks should not have given them such easy access to so much money.

Many of those people I just want to start slapping until they get it.

Rob.

Crude is down 1.2% and USO is nearly even.

Is this another instrument that doesn't follow it's intended index because of resets or something else?

Rob.

Geez 2nd, are we going to see TSO in the teens?
A bit if a sharp falling object at this point.
Keeping it small.

OldGoat,

I use a combination of cycles and industry breadth to determine whether there is a buy, sell, in, or out of market. Basically I have a few spreadsheets that will oscillate giving buy and sell signals. I have put conditions on these so that I am generally not trying to pick tops or bottoms, as there are many here that do that better than I. My ideal holding time runs from 3 weeks to 3 months. Further, I use fairly tight stops on losing positions both time and % change, as I feel that I had obviously made a mistake if what I think should be happening doesn't. Later tonight I will post a few charts of my spreadsheets so you can see what I am looking at.

Karl

MRK and PFE are leading the gainers on the DJIA (only 4 gainers, the other two being BA and UTX)...rotation out of basic materials and energy would be a positive, IMO...

It is the height of arrogance to assume that human beings are the primary drivers of global warming... the data DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS! None of it does. I have commented extensively on this in the past. That is not to say that green house gases cant have very negative repercussions on our environment. They can and do. Nor would I suggest that it is not in our best interest to move toward eliminating their use. However, it is ignorant and arrogant for us to assume that we can alter the current course of global warming by changing something in our behaviour that has demonstrably little to no effect on it in the first place..... does anyone teach logic anymore? I suggest that all of you consider the real reason someone has put all that lipstick on this pig. I'll give you some hints: POWER, CONTROL, WEALTH.

There is very ample evidence supporting the perspective (don those tinfoil hats now guys)that humans have already discovered and developed far more efficient, cost-effective, and polution-free forms of energy production. These technologies are not permitted to be used for the benefit of the masses. In infamous words spoken to Tesla by JP Morgan (paraphrasing here)..."WHat do you mean I cant put a meter on it and charge you for it?... are you telling me you've discovered FREE energy and you want to give this knowledge to humanity?!!?!?!?! I will DESTROY you before I allow that to happen." ...And so he did. The policy Morgan established lives on to this day in our oil-based society.

The hidden accomplishments and abilities of mankind are miraculous in scope even if unacknowledged.... I have often wondered when we will be allowed to benefit from this awesome ingenuity. Unfortuneately, I have come to the conclusion that only when mankind decides to stand up, in unison, demanding that the tired veil of control be removed from our eyes will we see real change and true enlightenment. Not before then. Current odds of this happening anytime in the near future are very long. It would be as if the cows suddenly revolted and stampeded at the front door of the slaughterhouse. I just don't see it...so back to sleep we go.

Have a good day all.

craig- if you bought TSO today, your basis is lower than that of anyone who bought in the past three years..you'd have to go back to june '05 for a better entry...

BA in at 74.40

for VLO, it'd be july '05..for SUN, december '04...

BA- i see Boeing is moving on news the GAO is saying the Air Force should make new decisions on tankers...

nice entry on BA...now at 76.16...

"You can't do a damn thing about Terrorism, poverty or Social Security or GLOBAL WARMING if your currency is worthless!"

sorry, but that argument means nothing if you DON'T FIRST ACCEPT GLOBAL WARMING IS A PROBLEM!!!

Ron Paul is in denial along with many other otherwise intelligent and insightful people.

Finger Lakes

I am also holding DUG [long]. What I can figure out, who is left out there who hasn't already bought into the run of of the oil sector. With the market starting to turn down, you would think there would be some profit taking in the oil sector thus driving DUG up.

should be: can't [not can]

Funny, I think it's the height of arrogance to assume the opposite. That's like saying yeast doesn't cause alcohol.

Either all the Universities are insane, the computer models broken, and the laws of thermodynamics is now quite the reverse, or someone is asserting their dominance for the reasons above....metering power.

If greenhouse gasses don't warm the planet, then the basis of my double poly greenhouses is based on bullshit. Me thinks not.
Same for all that money apparently wasted on studying soil levels of carbon (the highest in the history of the earth) and of course all that wasted science on insulators with air space as the primary insulator, like all of the poly and acrylic greenhouse glazings I use daily.
About 70% of the cold weather vegetables grown in BC count on atmospheric gas insulation to survive. Same for covered row crops.

How about we try to stay with science?
Adding morgan's greed simply supports the case.

Try this....lock yourself in your enclosed car in the sun and tell us greenhouse warming doesn't happen. It's hardly rocket science.

Guys,

No offense but could someone please offer me one real, actual reason a single guy with no kids should care about global warming to the degree that it would force me to change light bulbs or worse yet, cost me money? I fear the social engineers are scheming to assess the so-called "cost" of global warming one me, the most abused generation to come down the pike. My attitude is, move inland or learn to swim, and if that offends any of you, I apologize in advance.

Bailed on BA at 76. That was fun. TV pays today......

Global Warming: Last time I spoke with a friend who knows more than I, he told me the latest data shows cooling, and the data has been suppressed by the Warming Camp because of the big money involved in carbon credits.

Prior to that conversation, he told me scientists had measured similar temperature changes on the other planets, and the warming effect was due to variations in solar output.

Does anyone really think Al Gore earned a Nobel by doing real science? Where is his scientific PhD from?
The man is an utter joke IMHO. But then again, I haven't won the prize.

Karl - Many thanks! I (and perhaps others) look forward to getting a peek. ~OG

Why don't you look at the other side of the trade Shark? Besides the moral component of extincting the largest organisms on earth that provide us all food, like the Great Barrier Reef, you could turn a profit and get low cost clean power that you produce and the meter runs backwards making you some cash.

There's two reasons, one of which I'll bet you can clearly understand and make $ on.

The one thing I have never understood in the debate over global warming is why it really matters if it is a true phenomenon or not?

Can't we all agree that releasing an abundance of toxic chemicals into the Earth has real costs for us RIGHT NOW? If the phenomenon of global warming was disproven, would that the make it okay to release the toxic materials into the Earth en masse? Of course not.

So why don't we all concentrate on making the Earth a cleaner and healthier place to live and breathe, because the real problem is NOW. If we can prove that the polar ice caps melting is just part of natural evolution and not global warming, would we then decide it was just fine to repeal emissions standards and blast toxic gases at a more rapid rate? NO.

So whether global warming is real or not, should the debate really change how we as humans treat our environment?

Unless you are championing to allow more pollution in our environment, what is the point of the debate? We all know that a cleaner environment is more beneficial to our health in the long run.

The correlation between earth warming and solar intensity breaks down after 1980.

Why care about climate change? It will reduce the amount of arable land and fresh water on the planet.

The sun provides more than enough of our energy needs, we just need to put half the resources we put into the Iraq war to developing solar energy. This will hopefully solve the warming and the energy problem at once. But the current energy vendors reap huge profits off their infrastructure so they will resist change and further investment.

I also posted here a while ago regarding heat mining - geothermal energy. I still think this is the way to go. Drill 10km down and use the earth's heat indefinitely.

Craig,

Many good books about the insanity of Universities... designed to eliminate creative thinking... systematically crushes individuality to mold social beings.... etc, etc. For my part, I've learned to navigate the insanity but it requires me to keep my opinions to myself and I often parrot BS in order to obtain the necessary grade.

The computer models are broken. Again, there is more than ample evidence, even in mainstream sources that the current models are not working. The physics are too incomplete for accuracy.

ANd regarding the laws of thermodynamics, those too are incomplete leading to inaccurate modeling. So much info out there on this problem lately that it often makes my head spin trying to keep up with it all... this "law" is up for some major revisions.

So your telling me that you are pumping car exhaust into your greenhouse? More likely you are utilizing radiant heat to warm trapped gases. Hmm, now there is a thought... the sun warming gasses creating higher temps. Of course this doesnt account for the inexplicable increase in ground temperatures on other atmosphere-less bodies in our solar system so we are back to physics revisions and remodeling.

And yes, I agree with you. Back to sound science. As a PhD card-carrying scientist, I always fall back on this avenue myself.

Here is the latest example of "modeling problems":
http://tinyurl.com/5bhkmy

SOrry couldnt resist the quote:
"the absence of viable theories which can be tested, or in this case any theory at all, leaves us uncomfortably in doubt as to our basic ability to understand even gross features of planetary atmospheric circulations."

MF Global is down nearly 40% today. Failure of this firm would have large repercussions. We got a peak at this when Bear Sterns failed and MF Global took its first hit.

Anyone have a read on the systemic risks here?

Aur,

Read this article it supports what your friend said.

http://tinyurl.com/4mahjc

To piggy back on what you said, (total opinionated statement follows).
The whole phenomenon might have some weight to it but it could be big money carbon credits, cap and trade, ways to limit developing nations from pursuing what 1st world countries have already done in the past 50 years, maybe the Rockefellers idea of one world - as the family just put pressure on exxon to come up with green ideas.... Essentially it is big money. Social Responsible investing will be the next thing... Companies have been positioning themselves for the flood of money that will go their way. Go green because it is the way of the future....

Shark!

Always look out for number one, until it is against the law to do so. So who cares save your money, use whatever lightbulbs you please to use.... until the ROW is the the bandwagon, make your life convenient, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Stupid statement: what one individual does will not matter to the rest of us....
Of course if EVERYONE were to do something something would get done.

EXK is on a tear. Nibbled GFI.

Oh sure, the carbon credit profits are going to be compared to oil company profit motive and someone is gullible enough to believe that?

That's like believeing Gore is making more than Tillson. You're joking, right?

My German friends are right...Even God himself can't help stupid. Common guys, the VP didn't call the scientific community to the Whitehouse to determine the energy policy resulting in $140 oil. They can't sell or meter power.

If we are going to use profit as the motive, then we have about 100 years of proof as to who has played that card and Iraq is about WMD.

One wonders what will cost more, lightbulbs that save you money, or Katrina/Iowa 500 year floods/tropical storms/rebuilding infrastructure and lost human lives and productivity internationally.

I didn't think anyone here was that short-sighted or lacking in math skills.

Anyone from So. Cal? Ever experience the inversion layer there? I was raised there, in the San Fernando Valley for the first 20 years of my life. The inversion layer is greenhouse gas in action. It holds in both heat and pollution. The difference between that, your enclosed car, my greenhouses and the atmosphere is scale. They all hold atmospheric gasses and are heated by the sun.

The planet wasn't set-up to host a gazillion humans with one car per person constantly pumping out auto exhaust and their animal food farms pumping out methane at an even greater rate than their cities. Do you have any idea how much waste cattle emit? A LOT more than a human...hence the waste water pollution problems of the central valley of CA and the thick air.
It sure isn't the vegetables spewing methane.

The scale of our gas generation is staggering.

"The scale of our gas generation is staggering."

No argument there.

How'd you know I have bad gas?

(childish attempt to lighten the mood)

Norm -

The article you posted is ridiculous. The author claims that because CO2 is such as small part of the atmosphere that it can't possibly be the problem. The illogic of that idea is simply amazing. And he claims to have read thousands of climate change papers to come up with that argument!

Just went thru my whole PM miners list and they are looking good in the face of a solid overall market sell off.

It would seem US market weakness or even a crash would continue to weaken the US Dollar, thus boosting the miners and PM bullion.

Concerned oil falling might take Gold and PM with it. Which force will win out? I have no reason to believe the USD will strengthen. And the meddling to limit oil futures trading will drive oil pricing to other currencies, firther weakening the USD. Add in the European bankers...

Gold, Silver, food, water, and ammo.

"My German friends are right...Even God himself can't help stupid."

Their god must not be very powerful then. Mine could.

To help reduce global warming, Quebec has just approved the sale of the Zenn electric car inside Quebec. So far it was only approved in the US.

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=596984

Still prefer the water car.

A crash will take everything into the hole for at least a few days as profitable positions are sold to meet margin calls. Gold and miners especially took a hit in '87 but bounced back strongly. With GLD now the metal will probably take a bigger hit than in '87.

ditto no argument there..

one point,
pollution is a big problem but i am not totally convinced that global warming truly exists...

but define a greenhouse gas.... Car emissions pollute but do they cause global warming?

volcano in the Philippines(1990s) and st helens polluted the whole globe and in one natural event emit more gas and ask than the entire population over a given period of time.

ALOHA !!

The simple truth is that the US Economy and the US Peso is based on debt, which far outnumbers any carbon credits we may possess as a Nation. To study GLOBAL WARMING costs pesos ... to solve the problem would require more pesos ... to maintain current levels of pollution control requires ever greater amounts of pesos. The pesos are not there and those who allow us to survive on loans have run out of patience. The USA is a Third World country stuck in a make-believe First World mentality. We can't even afford to repair New Orleans or repair all the bridges in the USA. We can't afford our own debt and the guy in charge of tracking all that debt quit last year(David Walker head of GAO and Comptroller General). Thats like having the CEO of Enron quit unexpectedly!! We have squandered our future in Iraq and McMansions, because we have squandered our votes on the two party aristocracy(Dems and Reps)for too long! Its that simple ... In the end we'll be lucky if we can even afford a Great Depression! This is Empire crumbling as Empires historically all do! Worse than that though this is the first 100% FIAT empire crumbling in a 100% FIAT WORLD!! We are in an unprecedented global situation ... uncharted waters!!!

Electric cars will cause an Ozone crisis. Not to mention a huge lithium and cadmium poisioning issue.

http://tinyurl.com/6zsgfp

moab,

Really....

simple version below and complex below that... i found it very surprising. perception is reality.

http://tinyurl.com/52a52k

Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.9% argon, and 0.03% carbon dioxide with very small percentages of other elements. Our atmosphere also contains water vapor. In addition, Earth's atmosphere contains traces of dust particles, pollen, plant grains and other solid particles

This link has tons more detail... go about half way down for more specific detail about the atmosphere.

http://tinyurl.com/36e7p

keep in mind that nature has a balance that one would think can be stretched one way or another, not broken but just bent....

No sir, radiant heat is light, it doesn't heat gas.

How on earth am I supposed to debate this topic with someone that doesn't understand what radiant heat is or how it works?

Let's apply a little physics, shall we?

Heat transfer
For your exams you need to know the three kinds of energy transfer called heat transfer.

Thermal energy (heat energy) moves from one place to another because of the difference in temperature between them. The energy transfer is always from *hot to cold* and it can happen in three ways:

Conduction
In conduction energy is passed from atom to atom. It is the most important type of heat transfer in *solids*.

Convection
In convection, energy is carried around by atoms or molecules - so it only happens in liquids and gases.

Radiation
In radiation, radiant energy (infra-red) is given off by a hot object and absorbed by another object. You know, like a planetary body.

Since the law works equally well in both directions, the air spaces in greenhouse glazings insulate both heat and cold, like the windows of your house. You know, those double windows filled with argon gas to insulate your house? You know, it lets radiant heat through and uses gas insulation to keep it there. Hence south facing greenhouses and homes. Or is all that engineering a waste and based on BS?

I would think a PhD would have a grasp of basic high school physics.

Craig,

blast from past.... good to know!

Yes Craig,
The three forms of heat trnasfer are basic and ubiquitous. Gas is comprised of molecules. Photons from sun hit gas molecules causing them to absorb energy, becoming more agitated...thermal measurement is an analysis of this agitation state.

Sorry gotta go do some PhD stuff. Maybe we can continue another day.

Always good to challenge one another to keep the cobwebs out of the brain.

Thanks Craig.

The argon in thermal panes is to prevent moisture intrusion, and I presume to be an inert filling if there is a vapor deposited coating.

A dual walled container that is not thermally conductive uses a vacuum between the layers. ie thermos bottle.

I am aware that CO2 is a tiny part of the atmosphere. Anyone who took high school physics should be aware of that.

To make the argument that because CO2 is a small proportion of the atmosphere it can't possibly be the cause of climate change is the most ludicrous argument I have ever heard. Why even bother collecting data! It can't possibly be!

That is like saying a small amount of Uranium 238 can't possibly release a large amount of energy.

And by the way, there are other gases linked to climate change, such as methane. It is not a CO2 only problem.

Re "uncharted waters"; am I the only one who is struck by the incorrect reference to "unchartered territory" in an oil company commercial that's been running of late on the idiot box?

Methane... Exactly. And why is there no big move to restrict methane, like a cat converter on every cow's arse? There are huge undersea methane deposits that release enormous methane quantities when there is seismic action. There always has been and there always will be.

If I'm not mistaken, water vapor is the greenhouse gas that is most responsible for the thermal effects. They act by absorbing solar energy reflected off the earth's surface and prevent some of it from being radiated back into space. CO2 is just the most profitable to scam.

U238 comparison involves e=mc2 and is irrelavent, as there is nothing in the greenhouse gas argument that involves changing mass to energy.

Then they could just as easily (and more cheaply) use dried conditoned atmospheric air like I do for scuba.
They use argon because Argon is transparent to IR.

On the other hand, Water vapor, Carbon Dioxide, and Methane all absorb IR.

One of the big misunderstandings is the role water vapor plays. At night it holds in heat as clouds, during the day it bounces light back and keeps the atmosphere cooler. However, as the atmosphere warms we get up to 4% water vapor in the atmosphere, and this percentage has far more effect then CO2.

The deal with CO2 is what it does to the basic carbon levels of our soils, which has increased substantially and then causes other problems with soil chemistry resulting in vegetative changes....increasing CO2 even more.
It isn't so much the gas, it's the carbon itself...the result of combustion, which we are freeing at an alarming rate. If it only released two oxygen molecules (dioxide) it probably wouldn't be as big a problem.

This is why the topic is so complex.
A largely ingnored problem is water vapor (think clouds/steam) which is lost in the hoopla.

So mtnGtnx is half right. Not all the gas molecules are heated by IR. The important ones are Water vapor, Carbon Dioxide, and Methane, the gasses we emit in our daily activities.

moab,

the author is the founder of the weather channel.

i did not watch any of gore's movies or his doc... so i only have one side of the story.

however it seems that gore's ideas of his phenomena is on the basis of CO2 which the author of the story tries to rebuttal.

I totally agree that there are most likely other gases that can contribute but perhaps gore's argument has been based on co2

while 31k scientists is a large amount of researchers to say gore is wrong but who cares....

bear sterns was run by a smart group of people right?

timeout from polemics - for trading opportunities in mining!

Otto Rock, the US banker/blogger in Lima has interesting items today on CSI.V and PCU.

Colusus is the infamous Serra Pelada mine in Brazil, newly in modern hands and showing massive grades of PM's. The price spiked, and now it's pulling back, allowing entry.

PCU has dipped due to local and national strike conditions in Peru.

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/

Otto is buying both; I (currently) have no positions; do your own DD.

LOL! The battle to get us to eat less meat and thereby reduce methane and water vapor from vast cities of feedlot cattle is a longer term fight....right?

Here we grow all this corn using giant quantities of water, then we feed the corn to cattle that fart and crap it out like 25 humans, then we top it off with even more water used by the cattle, then the methane from the crap.

The air of the central valley of California (where the dairies and feedlots live) was discusting when I drove through on Saturday.
You couldn't see the hills just a short distance away for the smog. This is farmland. There isn't a population of anything out there great enough to cause smog but cattle. Cotton and vegetables don't emit smog, they emit oxygen (at least during the day).

It wasn't that smoggy when I was a kid.

Now they have the central valley air quality control monitoring cattle populations to control the emission of gasses. It's impossible to start a dairy there now without massive expense for pollution control on all levels, water, air, manure, etc.

adding some smn

Little bit OT for today's discourse, but along the lines of "when its on the cover or Time" today I heard Blanchard advertising gold eagles on the radio - KCBS - large coverage AM station in SF Bay Area.

I don't care who he is, his argument is sophmoric (that is generous). I am open to any good arguments against global warming but the ones I have seen are unscientific and disingenuous. The famous anti-global warming documentary from Great Britain used rigged charts, deceived their interviewees, and used selective editing. There have been warming periods in the earth's history but none at the current accelerated rate. And there is a direct positive correlation between CO2 levels and the average climate temperature going back millions of years. I have not seen a credible critique of this data, except to claim that there is correlation but not causation. That is possible but the science behind the causation theory has also not been credibly refuted.

----

I am hunting Collosus but not at these prices.

Speaking of electricity, anyone paying attention to GE? Is this a good buying opportunity for the Cara 100, or a time to take it off the list and put MF on there?

Very amusing discourse today. Makes me wonder how silly a scientific person such as myself must sound sometimes when talking about markets. People like to think that science is based on hard cold facts that are beyond question. Fact is on a daily basis old “facts” are proven wrong as more knowledge is gained, a good example being Newtonian physics versus quantum physics. It seems to me the “greenhouse theory” is more like the uncertainty of the market where a very complex system can be influenced by an infinite number of variables that can be difficult to measure or quantify let alone know the effects.

Craig - I respect you as a very intelligent person, but I have to say some of your ideas are riddled with questionable “facts”. The inversions in Cal., the enclosed car, greenhouse and atmosphere are not just a different scale of the same phenomena. They are all independent systems that are being influenced by a different set of variables. They may have some similarities in behavior which leads you to the conclusion that the scientific phenomena controlling the behavior is the same, but what is similar is they are all heat transfer problems however the independent variables that influence each is very different.

As an example, let’s talk about inversions as that is one example where I have some first hand reliable data. Salt Lake City, Utah has a similar inversion problem to southern Cal. which I have observed over many years. I am not positive the two locations are exactly the same but I suspect that what I observe in SLC is similar to Ca. The inversion is primarily caused by the local topography of the area, specifically a basin or valley that has mountains on one or more sides. Then, add to this the local atmospheric conditions such as a dome of high pressure over the area. Then, in the case of SLC, I think snow on the ground tends to enhance the inversion effect by creating cold ground temperatures. This all creates the effect of a “lid” over the valley that traps gases in the basin area resulting in increased pollution and decreased visibility as the gases continue to “fill the container“. This example is drastically different than the other examples you describe. The fact that I observe is that the air temperature in the trapped basin is colder than the air above. This is observed by going up into the mountains above the inversion and noticing the air is warmer. It has to be by the “laws of physics” that we believe to be true. That is hot air rises. How does hot air in the San Fernando valley stay trapped below colder air above?

My understanding of the dominant phenomena creating global warming is that the “greenhouse gases” act as an insulating layer in the atmosphere that traps in the heat that is being radiated from the earth’s surface. This heat is generated by two factors, heat from the core of the earth and heat generated on the earth’s surface from the sun, either through reflection or photon excitation as described by MtnGntx. Additionally, the greenhouse gases aren’t behaving like your double paned windows which insulate by decreasing thermal conduction, rather greenhouse gases tend to reflect the heat back to the earth effectively acting like a radiation shield for the heat energy being radiated from the earth’s surface.

My personal opinion on the issue of global warming is very similar to the view presented by BillySundance although I do believe he is a little confused on what is a “toxic gas”. In my opinion carbon dioxide and methane (main greenhouse gases) are not toxic gases, however, they may be related to global warming. However, the idea of minimizing the emission of toxic gases of which there are thousands is just plain good sense.

(Disclosure: I left the world of science about 1 year ago to focus on the markets so my comments on both topics probably sound silly to the well informed.)

"A man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest ... " Paul Simon, The Boxer

A little "bubble bursting" comic relief:

http://tinyurl.com/5y4pva

We need a female FED chair.

ALOHA !!

I just read Doug Casey comment on EBay and selling silver. He is totally off the mark. The premium he mentions of some 50% is not there due to shortages but due to bidding. If you cannot afford to make the minimum purchase required by many online PM dealers of $2,000USD or more or the PMCP minimum of $10,000USD then you have no choice but to bid against others at EBay for one single coin! I have seen this premium at Ebay for years. It is also a case-by-case basis as sometimes you get a nut case who just bids up the price due to ego and sometimes its a collector or just due to rarity. I do not think you can say that the premium is there strictly from a silver shortage! If you buy one coin at a time because thats all you can afford it always costs more!

He did mention something that I have said all along, which is more people are buying silver(poor mans gold)because they cannot afford gold. As more middle class working types realize the fiat issue is real they will want to spend their money on "money insurance", which is gold and silver. If you have $1,000USD to spend would you rather buy a one ounce gold coin or 50 one ounce silver coins? All Americans will go down the path of MORE BANG FOR YOUR BUCK and buy the 50 silver coins! That way they will "feel" richer ...

Anyone here ever buy coins or bullion bars off of EBay?

Here is a link to a chart of the greenhouse gas absorption spectrum posted at Iowa State University: http://www.geology.iastate.edu/gccourse/forcing/spectrum.html

So, apparently gases do a little more than just "let radiant heat through."

- SPX hit the 23.6% retracement of the Oct high and March low and closed off it's lows (and fib support). You can clearly see how this level has provided support and resistance before. We'll have to see what happens moving forward.

- There sure is a lot of negative sentiment on this blog....maybe I should shut my eyes and push the green buy button ;-)

- Global Warming; I don't think anyone is arguing that the temperatures have increased, I think the argument is how much we have contributed to the increase. Throughout history, there have been times of temperature increases that exceed what we are experiencing now and those times were before the industrial revolution. I would like someone to explain to me how that happened without the human element. If you can explain that to me, then I would like a scientifically calculated estimate of how much we are contributing in percentage terms to Global Warming. If you can't answer my first question, I personally would like to see the debate end on this blog. Btw, I am a fiscally conservative tree hugger. Thanks.