Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

More rampant inflation...

"Dow Chemical Co. plans to raise the price of its products for the second time in a month to deal with what it calls the relentless rise in costs of energy and related raw materials.

The Midland-based chemical company said Tuesday it will raise prices by as much as 25 percent next month. That follows prices increases of up to 20 percent that took effect last month. It also plans a freight surcharge in North America.

The company also plans to temporarily idle or cut production at a number of manufacturing plants. Dow's automotive unit is cutting costs that include workers and plants in light of a North American sales decline.

Chairman and CEO Andrew Liveris says the steps are "extremely unwelcome but entirely unavoidable."

http://tinyurl.com/3swysw

Cara 100 Update:

New Coverage:

SNDK - Strong Buy @ Cowen & Co.

BC - Higher materials costs won't help the price of boats. Resin is necessary to make fiberglass.

BH- thanks for the SNDK info...which is having zero effect on the pre-market bid-> investors in this company are too jaded to care...(opened a small position yesterday at 21.19)...

sentiment-wise, still think this market goes up...but i'm wrong until i'm right...

2nd

"investors in this company are too jaded to care"

I thought this comment by Kass near the end of his article

Kass: Investors Have Lost Their Innocence

http://tinyurl.com/4ntnol

was similar to yours.........

"While, at some point (maybe sooner than later), the equity markets will rally from the current oversold readings, an extended period of investor disinterest and apathy seems likely to follow."

GLD +12 tons yesterday for a 30ton+ increase over the last 3wks

So Dow increases it's prices to reflect increasing input costs. I get that. So my naive question is, why don't the refiners do the same to alleviate the margin compression they are experiencing? It's not like consumers will cut back significantly or find substitutes if gas goes up another dime or quarter... am i missing something?

[Bill Cara note: The WSJ has just reported "The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 cities fell by 15.3% in April versus a year earlier, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. It marked the first time all 20 metro areas posted year-over-year declines. Month to month, April prices fell 1.4% from March, with Miami and Phoenix the worst performers, down more than 3%, though several cities showed gains."

The majority of Americans have no money--just debt, and houses they cannot sell unless they cut the price dramatically. Some have access to credit, but borrowing is tight. I think the consumer would revolt if gas costs jumped another 25 cents.]

2nd,

Sorry to read that your SNDK trade isn't bearing fruit as of yet.

I'm on the fence as to whether or not we see a near term rally before we continue dropping. The news is getting worse by the day and no-one seems to believe the Cinderella Spin anymore.

Sitting tight with SKF and QID.

Good luck, my friend.

Regards

whats up with KRY -- 1.12

[Bill Cara note: Now here is someone who didn't read today's comments!]

Bill, you wrote: "They hope to show an acceptable sales record for June. I think that sends the wrong message. Why not just cut the price?" I've been car-shopping for over a year now, holding out for better prices, etc, and have found no change in the attitude of sales people. They act as if they don't care if they sell you a car, or not. Maybe this is a sales tactic, but it's not working with me. They need to bring the price down for those of us with cash to spend, not offer us 0% financing, in hopes of selling us more car than we need, and of sucking us into the debt-economy. When will they ever get a clue?!

[Bill Cara note: GM is in dire straits, and their situation is unlikely to improve under current management. That's too bad because, with a few exceptions, I think they have some outstanding cars.]

It's starting to seem like high price commodities will really crush the economy much more completely than higher interest rates will.

That's why I'm leaning towards Ben hiking rates. Think about it, the option ARM mess doesn't really start until next year and the sub-prime resets are pretty much over. The banks and brokerages already have 500 Billion of our money so unless they're insolvent already they should do better with higher rates than higher commodities.

He has a 6 month window to drive commodities down and the dollar up. If he doesn't, and we're still at 140 Oil by the time these option ARM's start resetting then the game will really be over.

Then we'll run a 3 Trillion dollar deficit trying to bail out everyone at once that will collapse the whole system when foreigners stop buying our bonds.

Knowing what's coming, I just don't see how he could not raise rates tomorrow.

Rob.

8:12AM Crystallex and Ministry of Environment begin discussions; National Assembly Committee supports Las Cristinas (KRY) 0.66 : Co announces that on June 18, 2008, Crystallex was invited to a meeting by representatives of the Ministry of the Environment, led by Vice Minister of Environmental Planning and Administration, Merly Garcia. At this meeting, Crystallex was informed that MinAmb was instructed by the Government to reconsider issuance of the Las Cristinas Environmental Permit to Affect Natural Resources by discussing with Crystallex possible modifications of the Las Cristinas project, which could enable the Permit to be issued.

proudPapa- that's a good question...they're acting like they're between a rock and a hard place, when they should just raise prices to drop demand, and cut back on capacity...

american corporations have gone soft..airlines, refiners-> they should go back to the good old days and just stick it to the consumer ;)

Homage to George Carlin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMqJvhmD5Yg
In this clip he was spot on IMVHO.

How a Shady Citigroup Subsidiary Secretly Makes Billions in the Oil Market

Crude oil has risen 700 percent in seven years; the lack of oversight has allowed companies like Phibro to pull in huge and questionable profits.

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/88995/

testing 11750...

refiners and airlines re-testing lows...

What I've Learned: George Carlin

The first thing they teach kids is that there's a God -- an invisible man in the sky who is watching what they do and who is displeased with some of it. There's no mystery why they start that with kids, because if you can get someone to believe that, you can add on anything you want.

http://tinyurl.com/6h2pbf

is it about time for oil to drop?

MON earnings are tomorrow and should be a bellwether for the ag sector. Momentum has been great but I am skeptical that the outlook can be as good as the market would hope - but I have been wrong so far - holding a couple SMN 30 calls for july.

Bill I was away for a while

I have a lot of catching up to to do

Larry Kudlow, on Bubble Vision, just made the comment that if Ben raises interest rates a quarter point, the Dow will rally several thousand points in the next six months.

Are African Tribal Love Drugs legal in the U.S. ?

:^)

gonna try a taste of that 20.19 sndk -

adding to SNDK at 20.20...

adding to GE at 27.34...

adding to CAF...opening TTM at 11.10...

BH- do you think SKF is nearing a sell point, or are holding for another spike down in the financials...

Cara 100 Final Update:

New Coverage:

SNDK - Strong Buy listed earlier @ Cowen & Co. is now listed as Underperform. Please don't shoot the messenger.

Target Price Lowered:

PAYX - from $41 to 40 @ Lehman Bros.

Anyone done any research on the Platinum ETF (PTM) ? Haven't gotten around to perusing the prospectus yet - wondering if anyone beat me to it?

2nd,

Looking for a test and breakthrough of the highs. Following Bill's scenerio, when the Dow sinks to 10 grand I might think about selling SKF. In the meantime, QID has a long way to drop, IMHO.

Regards

Cara 100 DEO nearing 52 week low.

500 glw at 25.02

Craig, 2nd_ave,
Please take a look at the option activity on TSO. I'm watching tsogx(22.5 July expiration). What's it
telling? Dropping oil price?

8heir- since i'm at my day job, can't really do much in the way of research...all i can is days like this present extraordinary trading opportunities- volatility (and premiums) presumably high, and selling puts on TSO may yield a good return...

That is some very curious action on TSO July calls - Short positions being covered on the sly as to not incite a short covering rally?

I also just saw UYG make a u-turn from $22 to $22.70.

I am staring in disbelief at the reading of the TRIN index-.53!!! Does anyone else have a similar reading? If this is truly the reading long positions are toxic. Maybe it's a bad data-I'm heading to the sideline to stand aside.

URRE has done well today, sold at 3.8
Guess I wrote KRY off too early...
Almost got into MXC but my bid was too low. boohoo

Anyone got a feel for when nucular's gonna take off? It just seems too stagnant in the face of an incredible energy slope.
Although I hate batteries, We need electric cars with plenty O'nuclear juice to charge em.

Wow 35K July 22.50s on TSO today. Open interest is 16K.

Sumpin's up.

optionoracle: I have it at .46. Why does that make long positions toxic?

Are the interventionists back or is this just heavy support?

I see TRIN at .51 on stockcharts. Short positions would seem to be toxic at this reading, not long positions.

UYG approaching $23 - nice reversal. Short term market bottom just in?

BC possible double bottom on hourly chart.

Kaimu said, "Study this ... "many fortunes will be lost trading the markets successfully ..."

The fortunes lost is the "VIG."

Bought some TSO. Lots of volume this a.m. and options are telling me something.

Tight stop in case I'm wrong.

chickenpookie,

good call on MXC.

2nd_ave,
I had a hard time explaining the activities on that option. The security kept dropping and then all the sudden the premium on the option stopped dropping along with it and reversed itself. Thinking about what Bill said this morning about the TH keeping pressure on the oil market, if they drop the oil price from here, we'll get some relieve on the overall market regardless on what Ben will do/say tomorrow. That's probably their best option.
Just thinking out loud.

Well, something has to give and maybe it finally it is time for oil to retreat. The high price is just wrecking the global economy.

Anyway, that's what I'm thinking here. It can't be the FOMC, can it? I'd be shocked if they did anything other than the rates steady, which is the overwhelming consensus.

writersblock- if that number is correct a tremendous amount of buying power is being used up and the market is unable to rally. A reading that low usually corresponds to a 100+ Dow rally-this am the SPUs were down 9 points and this reading was .62. It doesn't mean the market cannot and will not rally-historically it means caution is warranted so any of my longs today will have very tight stops. Been wrong before and will be again.

days like this are how fortunes are started, right...may be surprised how quickly beaten-up schifosas (airlines, refiners, financials, GE, SNDK, Whatever) recover to find second careers as top-line performers...

[Bill Cara note: this rally attempt is a move by banks and broker-dealers to shore up their own stocks, as I see it.]

#2 - Bite your tongue!!!! Oil go down???? I got some tar & feathers here for that kinda talk!!!!! Why should anyone else but greaseballs have any fun?

One theory on why the TSO option price might rise while stock was down:

If a large short player wants to cover, they risk inciting an all out short cover. A potential strategy would be to concede that the entire short position could not be covered at the current market price.

So that short may go to the market maker and bid up calls at a higher price, knowing that this could slow the pace of the short covering. The options market maker, since they are selling the stock at a premium, does not need to cover on a
1-for-1 basis, i.e. they can carry some risk b/c they have already sold at a premium. So, they can cover that same position more slowly.

Then as TSO runs closer to the strike price, the purchaser of those 22.5 calls can sell out their call position (still at a premium to market) and cover with actual shares.

Seems like a logical exit strategy for a large short position? But, I am not a market making expert so maybe someone could run with this.....

Thanks for the explanation, optionoracle.

I can accept that another 25 cent hike on gas might incite a revolt by the consumer, but who are they going to revolt against? VLO/TSO/SUN? Most consumers don't even know these names. They might revolt against XOM and the like and we'd get the usual show of the oil execs being called in front of congress.

So why should the refiners care about the consumer? Are they worried about demand destruction? Can't imagine since demand is very inelastic. Are they feeling pressure from the administration? Seems like a no brainer that higher oil = higher gas prices, so I still don't get why refiners don't pass the costs through...

Maybe it's more than just gas. I don't know what % of profits are from gas and diesel, and how much is from other petrochemicals. Petrochemicals I could see being harder to pass costs through, but Dow is doing it.

Trust me, I'm not complaining, I'm happy to pay less at the pump. But if I was running a business and my input cost increases are the most media-covered issue of the day (POO), I don't know why I wouldn't pass those costs right on through.

Wonder how those writedowns work, I've got some YHOO to write down...

Proudpapa - I agree completely. There are a number of similar issues which I just can't believe. Where's the constant hum-drum about the bottom of the financial crisis?

Unless something positive happens but fast, John Q is gonna stuff what little money he's got right under his mattress.

Short on time, so I'll be brief.

Scottrade: No shares of USO available to short.
Make of that what you will. Shorted it in my retirement account (different broker) instead. Stop just above 113.

Still long CNSL, which is holding up well on big down days. Action points toward some institutional accumulation. Long GFI from 11. And yes, still long KRY with a basis slightly above $2. Being in the environmental permitting/engineering business myself, I'm all too familiar with drawn out enviro permitting drama...and with few exception, the permits get granted. Purely a speculative play based only on the quality of the resource and my personal experiences with permitting.

Rates: With the price hike news out from DOW, oil up 40% since April, how the good Professor can avoid hiking rates is beyond me...but he will. Biggest question to me is what does the ECB do.

Billysundance,
Thanks for the explaination.

Vinod,
what do you think about IBN at this price level 32.0x?

Alaskan Pete (and anyone else)
Which broker allows you to short in your IRA? I was under the impression it wasn't allowed.

ill indulge the pessimistic side again prior to the fed announcement tomorow.

i think too many people belive the fed is in a conundrum that they cannot escape. this appears to be predicated on the notion that somehow europe isnt facing the same difficulty.

while the US debt situation may be larger, the euro as a currency is still in its infancy and with ongoing concerns of weakness in mediterranian member states like italy and spain, the US dollar may not look as worthless as many seem to think in comparison.

a small part of me that is usually drowned out by the gold-bull inside is wondering if bernanke is in fact in the eye of a storm that may buy him several more quaters, with the right amount of jaw-boning and a pithy 1/4 increase that might have the psychological effect well beyond the material value of a 1/4 itself.

oil may correct, along w/ gold and other commodities, the broader markets may at least stop falling while the mass media joins the chant of bottom calling, and the recent injection by a soverign wealth fund to citi group may signal that major players are entering the market. (it may just be a rescue operation, but bloomberg was already speculating that this was in fact the "smart money" coming in when there was blood in the streets. spin spin spin)

we as market students correctly identify all this as jawboning, but it has worked by and large, and i dont believe it will not continue to do so for the next few quarters w/ respect to gold. jawboning w/ a promise of a 1/4 rate increase later this year may be enough to tip the scales against gold.

i hate to say this because most of my portfolio is still in gold, but i wonder more and more if bill's call about gold falling back towards the low $800's is more and more likely.

i do hope to see gold shoot up tomorrow after Benny B speaks, and i do hope a remedy for the ailing economy is in the works, but part of me thinks if they could engineer a multi-year boom in realestate, they can do the same in the dollar whle shorting commodities and gold for just long enough to balance some of their books and find a new way to address the fiscal imbalances.

it seems that all Ben need is to hint at a rate increase of a 1/4 point at some point, and markets take it quite far. do he guess that the damage a 1/4 increase could have on markets is less than the psychological effect of having the dollar continue its intermediate term uptrend and commodities cool off, mkaing the consumer happy and ready to start shopping again....

im not happy about market action lately, and as traders i know this isnt a popular comment to make, but it is what it is, and gold is my call, one that is testing my patience beyond all believe as of late.

good luck as tomorow may signal some big changes for the next few months.

ALOHA!!

Go to these charts on "energy" and study natural gas and gasoline and crude oil futures prices denominated in USD. On what month did the prices start to go parabolic?

Is it a coincidence that prices started blasting above resistance in the month of August 2007? Isn't that the month the entire banking sector was in trouble? And what did the US FED do? How many gazillions of US Pesos have been pumped into saving the US Banks since then?

Is this the time that a transfer from "false wealth" of paper assets went to the "real wealth" of hard assets? What would be the chances that all the big US Banks who took out all those "temp loans" from the FED put that money into commodities, mainly oil? I am just now reading about Citi and the offshore company they own(subsidiary) are making huge profits off the oil move. Was that a US FED "temp loan" from the discount window they used? Is this how the US Banks intend to plug their losses? Whats next? The US Taxpayer takes on US Banks worst performing worthless liabilities while they move into "real wealth" of hard assets! President Bush is already handing out "free money" with his stimulus package. Whose package is it that really gets stimulated? Its not mine and its not US Taxpayers either, even though you may think it is in the moment. WOW, I just realized I wrote about packages getting stimulated ... I could have sold that to the DAILY SHOW! HA!! Handing out free money at the FED's discount window and Bush's stimulus ... hummmmm ... If thats not a signal that hyper-inflation is being tested then I don't know what is! That is ... if I am seeing this right? Who knows maybe I am not, but the energy charts sure look suspicious! Of course the OPEC producers and Russia sure are loving it, even though they are pretending to be in sympathy with US consumers. Look US consumers will find a away to pay for what they feel is important in their lives. Somehow most of the Western countries like Europe and Australia find ways to afford gasoline that is nearly double what we pay here in the USA and in the midst of all those high gasoline prices they pay their currencies are appreciating while the country with the lowest gasoline prices(the USA)has its currency falling in comparative value. Still the pain is there isn't it?

Link to energy: http://tinyurl.com/5pnao5

8heir
Buy 300 Shares of IBN
Details Filled at $32.65
Buy 1,000 Shares of SONS
Filled at $3.79
Buy 200 Shares of TTM
Details Filled at $11.10

Buy 100 Shares of SUN
Details Filled at $38.25
Buy 100 Shares of VLO
details Filled at $42.30
Buy 100 Shares of GOL
Details Filled at $12.00
Buy to Open Put 3 Contracts of -OEBSR
Details Filled at $11.00
Sell to Close Put 3 Contracts of -OEBSR
Details Filled at $12.00

bailing out of UYG and this morning's SNDK...

dr.cosa

Interesting thoughts.

YHOO just went from $21 to $21.55 in blink of an eye

yhoo/msft deal back on

Craig where'd you hear that?

Like Shark yesterday I'm just scalping like a North American Aboriginal.....

Reuters
Microsoft, Yahoo buyout talks back on: report

http://tinyurl.com/5hm8x8

Russell 2000 has cracked and can not get positive today. It has been outperforming the SPX and is now underperforming.

just got KILLED going long YHOO...Definitely the worst trade I ever made. Usually I set stops but didn't have time in this case, then I entered an order and just could not get out.

Bloomberg....citing an online tech blog

Cyderman:

I should have been more clear, poor word choice on my part. By "retirement" account I mean to differentiate between it and my "trading" account, not to signify that it is an IRA. I keep them separate for discipline, performance review, and money mgmt reasons and to have access to multiple brokers (due to unexpected downtime or data feed problems, and to have access to more than one when trying to short something)

AFAIK, you are correct on not being able to short in an IRA because it would require a margin account.

If I get the $300 I lost Shark I'll buy you a drink....

I alsways use stops, right...This time I had JUST bought the goshdarn thing when it crashed, then I was messing around with limit orders when I shoulda used a market order. I am one torqued off hombre. I'm ready to go medieval.

Bu the way Craig, just for the record, did you actually read that the Microsoft deal is back on or was that something you made up?

Funny about MSoft trying for Yahoo again...

If Msoft buys Yahoo even at the lower costs it's a bad deal... Msoft is buying outdated tech, and bad management. All of Yahoos better employees already left. In fact Yahoo has to buy into Google now to make profits because its own setup is so outdated. Its all about public image and MSoft is trying to buy into the data market... which wont win it... Msoft needs to re-ivent their internal structure if it's to compete with Google. If they make this move, it just indicates long term MSoft is only now a average tech stock.

Google all the way is the winner of this deal

So play this one carefully, a good time to exit out of Yahoo stock in the hype again: good call on that sundance.

Either way its a losing situation: except if you time it very carefully.

My opinion.

Uh, no, otherwise I would have made a few bucks instead of losing $300. I got caught like you did.
Not only did I read it but they announced it and had the charts up which is why I answered the first post. Aholes.....

Here is the link to the Yahoo / Msoft story

http://tinyurl.com/3guwsf

I "only" lost half of what you did. But I feel like twice the schmuck.

Vinod,
What is the stock those calls are for?

Rob.

Trust me Shark, I can be way more the schmuck than you can....LOL!

On YHOO trade:

Guys, I haven't seen your entry points so can't comment on that naturally. On nuts and bolts of stopping out though: If you want out, get out. If market order is not to your liking, apply limit order in the following manner: click on the price BELOW current bid, click Sell. Forinstance, if YHOO drops fast, you want out when it hits 22.50, you click on 22.40 or so on level 2 in advance and hover your cursor over Sell button. Your stop trigger is hit, click it. This way you are protected from surprizes of market order, you won't sell lower than .40 and you will get all the available prices above it - most likely you'd be out at .45 - .50. If your broker has no such capability it's not suitable for fast day tradinbg.

Hope it helps.

Vad,

This was a classic case of buying into a rumor which was debunked about 11 milliseconds after I entered the trade. The first thing I always do is set a real stop, in this case the price crashed before I could and caught me with my pants down and my blue boxers hanging out.

mistakes I made were

a) getting interested in the bs rally because of Craig

b) buying into the stupid thing and finally

c) not exiting the trade in a timely fashion

Other than that, it was purrrfect.

By the way 2nd, how dumb were we to be looking long on DCR a few weeks ago when short DCR was where the money was.

Rob,

From Vinod's earlier posts, I believe he is buying puts on OEX or the S&P100.

Italian perspective on Fed cf ECB
http://tinyurl.com/3nh4yc

Wow ... TSO July 22.50 call vol up to 56K. 2nd, you still in this stock?

TSO/VLO/GE/SNDK-> these schifosas just turned into hot chicks and they're chasing after them...;)

n2s- yeah, like dating the ugly ducklings...

shark,

not seeing your entry I may be wrong but it seems like main mistake was buying into sharp spike. Long entry on parabolic upward move, Euphoria in terms of tape reading, is a classic entry error. News (rumor) in itself is just a reason to look, chart is ultimate answer. If a stock runs away from you, wait for pullback or pause with consolidation and subsequent break. (JBE setup).

Let me ilustrate with one of today's chart. ROYL, 1 minute intraday. 9:55 - 10:00 EST - any entry in this time interval would be a mistake, even though some of them would be profitable. Pullback back into $13 consitutes valid entry. 10:10 breakout of $13.25 - valid entry. Breakout of $13.70 at 10:41 - valid entry. Whole run after that up to 10:51 - error, even though most of those entries would be profitable.

craig- you'll need $300 to buy shark his drink...

Margaret Brennan has 2 significant advantages.

OIL:

“NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Speculators now account for about 70 per cent of all benchmark crude-oil trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from 37 per cent in 2000, according to congressional findings cited in a Wall Street Journal report Monday.

“I've seen this bad movie before. It's the Enron movie, which hit the West Coast power-markets like a bomb because the federal government was asleep at the switch. Now it's happening again with oil prices."

--Rep. Jay Inslee, D-WA

http://tinyurl.com/5865zz

I noticed that TLT moved up today even when all stock indices were up earlier (TLT should have been down, since money moves from bonds into stocks when stocks rise). Could it be because of the expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates tomorrow? Or that it will make a statement that inflation is not a problem?

DavidV

I didn't realize my arm reached clear to Shark's buy button.....I'll take responsibility for my dumbass error but it's hard to stop anyone else!

BTW, all I did was answer the first post with the reasoning provided by FETV. Live by the sword, die by the sword. It worked a lot better for BA and the upheld protest over air tankers.

Vad, when the bid/ask is a blur because it's falling so fast, you just hit the market order and get the hell out. If I took one second longer it would have been really ugly.

Then you sit and stew in your juices and LEARN.
Do Not Do THAT again.....

2nd: I figured it would take a large drink to hold a Shark....

Moab,

BC - Nice call on the double bottom

Why does this signify a buying opportunity?

A friend of mine owns a billiards store that sells brunswick tables....I know that's a very small piece of their business but I would imagine sales are terrible.

BTW, 2 seconds sooner I would have been up $150 and laughing at poor Sharkie. Bummer.

Craig

You have to quit hanging around the Westport library fooling around with the computer that has Shark's logon and passwords!

2nd

Looks like you TSO/SMN/DUG was "a brilliant move". Especially if they hold or raise rates tomorrow.

you-->your

Cara 100 IBN @ new 52 week low

BC -

Fundamentals and technicals are separate questions that often get confused here. If there is a buy signal and a double bottom then your risk is clearly defined and you are getting a better price than 99.9% of buyers of this stock when sellers are likely exhausted for the time being. Ride it up and decide on an exit without thought to the fundamentals, or get stopped out at a very small loss. Keeping your losses small is the key to success in the markets.

Fundamentals don't look good for BC, but then again stocks often recover before the fundamentals so it is foolish to wait for them to recover.

"when the bid/ask is a blur because it's falling so fast, you just hit the market order and get the hell out."

Yup. That's what I meant by "If you want out, get out".

QT- don't jinx it, man...

SMN taking off...

You got it Vad. I stupidly felt that based on the nature of the rumor (I feel like a schmuck even SAYING that, but) that, combined with the price action that I'd go long. It was breaking out of it's consolidation pattern. Then it crashed like a 1950's Soviet test-rocket. And I'm the stupid monkey in the nose cone.

shark,

something doesn't compute. YHOO's break out of consolidation pattern was at $21 break. After that it went up in a rocket-like manner. Any entry along that crazy almost 2 dollars spike was chasing, not buying break of consolidation.

Just want to keep definitions uniform lest our discussion adds confusion.

Good grief, a dog like RYL is up 7% today on a middling analyst's buy recommendation and the "good" news that Case Schiller was down only 15%, and not 16% as some were expecting?

Sheesh.

Now TSO's rise, well, that has merit. And that's because I went long this a.m. ;)

Thanks moab.....my first technical trading lesson.

KRY- close to 100% gain intraday...now i've seen everything...

Seamus....just call me stretch! LOL! I didn't know I could reach that far.....

2nd_ave:

KRY- close to 100% gain intraday...now i've seen everything...

People are now trading only on hope...
Soon it be upon a river of tears
As even hope drys up

Hope is always the last testement of
of those living in a ghost town to be.

Been in the southwest too long,
the afternoon rains coming now,
time to sit on the porch and watch the storm.

peace

At the close, a few block trades on GE including

4:00 p.m. 1,740,100

With end of quarter dressing up ending, think some institutionals loading up for next quarter and the future.
***************************

That's some coast to coast stretch Craig. And I thought Hood to coast was a long run!

ESLR - just released news of $300M convertible notes offering to fund expansion. Dropped $0.50 after hours on the news...

Kaimu - That's the conclusion I came to also, In fact I've mentioned it several times here. I don't see any evidence against it, so that's why I'm staying away from oil. It's my understanding oil is relatively small in comparison to HB&B, so that explains the gargantuan tumor (not a mere bubble) that continues to grow like cancer. Refiners are looking attractive though, and will be well stimulated in the event oil tumbles.

Now, I wonder if HB&B plans include dumping oil and moving somewhere else at some point, i.e. oil tanks in one day and HB&B emerges the next day smelling like a rose unscathed from the sub-prime debacle, with Paulson and Bernanke taking credit for rescuing the economy. Now there's an area for close monitoring.

Am I the only one who is just sick of seeing this oil speculator nonsense? Why is everyone so obsessed claiming that the oil run-up is due to "evil" speculators? When did we all decide that speculation was bad?

Everyone who owns stock in any public company is "speculating". They are all speculating that the value of the share they own in a company will deliver a higher return than all of the possible alternatives available to them.

Further, everyone in the world that drives a car or even takes the bus, every form of transportation besides walking, swimming, or riding a bicycle has a SHORT POSITION IN OIL! You all do, everyone who does not own physical oil reserves or oil futures is SHORT OIL!

This is how parablic moves happen. The oil market has moved is such a way that certain market participants, many of which were previously waiting for a better price, decide that they can no longer afford to wait. If they do not close their short position, they can no longer stay in business, get to work, produce what they produce, the list goes on.....

And the oil market will not top until the risk of being too long is greater than being short! Maybe that is now maybe it is not, no one knows exactly.

But I sure wish our Congress would quit wasting time trying to find the "evil" speculators and start getting to the root of the problems that began the speculative run - inflation caused by irresponsible behavior accompanied with a lack of economic value placed on finding oil alternatives.

Congress needs to get a clue!

(Billy steps down from the soapbox)

[Bill Cara note: I believe that some of the large hedge fund players are supporting the oil price, but I think the biggest problem is the politics behind trying to drill the heretofore environmentally protected areas of the US.]

Would not be surprised if fed raised 25 basis points. Big Ben needs some inflation fighting credibility pronto, and because of modest .25 %increase, could have desired effect to stem dollars decline.

BC vs YHOO for market leader!!!

Huh, surprised none of us caught this earlier. Mish just reported that apparently Vietnam suspended gold imports to try and fix trade balance and currency problems.

Here's an article dated yesterday, mentioning that 1st quarter imports were on the order of 60 tonnes (vs. 77.7 tonnes for all of '07). Maybe this is what caused the sharp drop in price?

What are thoughts on the performance of the coal sector?

Sector is up 73% YTD

JRCC, BRCO, PCX all up well into triple digits....good time to be short?

Billy - Do you believe HB&B has a hand in oil's climb, or is this phenomenon just a co-incidence? My understanding is oil has been leveraged to extremes, and I'd feel more comfortable knowing it wasn't done with my social security retirement.
Don't you smell a rat? I think I do...

ALOHA !!

ON LYM
I have held this stock for three years now only buying dips, and where it closed today at $0.60CDN(+43%)netted me close to a 500% return, with an average buy-in price of $0.125CDN. I also received about $70,000CDN worth of Lorraine Copper-LLC via the spin-off,(Tech Cominco and LYM JV)which Tech Cominco calls its number one base metals exploration project in North America. I have been buying LLC at the current range. The Quesnel Trough and the Duckling Creek Complex deposits have really paid off!

No official news on what the Australian connection is to LYM yet ... Somebody knows something and have been driving the price up for a month now!

My two top Canadian junior performers are now GIX and LYM!

Its "real money" in the ground! This kind of share price movement reminds me of the juniors in 2003, where you made money if you bought just about anything with the word "resources" in it!

Schleppy - Coal is up along with most all energy commodities. Primarily though, US coal has rocketed because of the falling dollar. Maybe soon coal will the largest US export?
Of course if the USD fundamentals improve and energy prices return to unity then coal should too.

Kaimu - I'll tell you what scares me most about LYM and you please tell me if it makes any sense...

I have a fear that LYM is a fly-by-night which might soon take off in a helicopter with everyone's cash only to never be seen or heard from again.

Here is a more reasonable look at the MSoft/Yahoo deal in the brew

http://tinyurl.com/66dk2d

from my experience this is closer to reality in what to expect.

MSoft is really after the search front end, the data and some the search resources to roll and meld into its own search/data capabilities.

However, in the end, is that data worth 1 billion dollars? Actually probably yes, but in the long term it will hurt Yahoo, since Yahoo really currently doesn't have a good business plan any more and it's selling its most valuable real estate to appease its internal critics, to buy itself some more time. In the tech business, when you see such sell offs, they almost never work for the company selling off its resources, since its losing what truly made it work.

Long term Yahoo is dust in my book. It didn't stick what it was good at and didn't evolve with the market place in a effective manner.

It might re-invent itself... but to do so will be a very painful long term process.

MSoft on the other hand will gain in credibility as it can use this to grab some more mind-share and to grab some additional resources it needs to help re-invent its search/data division. In reality this isn't a technical merger, its 70% public mind-share / 30% tech game right now.

Chickenpookie - does HB&B have their hand in contributing to the rise of oil prices? Sure. But I don't necessarily consider it criminal.

HB&B manages large pools of capital, capital that is chasing the greatest returns possible, wherever those returns may be - right now they are seeking returns in oil and commodities.

Its all commodities - coal, fertilizer, natural gas, uranium, metals - they have all had "phenomenal" gains. How is the rise in price of coal different from that of oil aside from the fact that you don't personally buy it at a filling station to heat your house? There is no difference at all except that the bill is not sent directly to you. You use them both (unless you are off the grid generating your own power)

But no one is claiming that HB&B is conspiring to increase the price of coal are they? natural gas? fertilizer? corn? Everyone is just obsessed with the "evil" oil speculators b/c it is what they SEE in front of them at the pump.

I personally would HOPE that HB&B was using my social security retirement to invest in the oil run - It would provide some real nice gains!

Also - I am not sure what you infer when you say that "oil has been leveraged to extremes". You need to define "extreme"? Referring back to my previous post, oil can only top when the risk of being long oil outweighs the risk of being short. If the leverage were that extreme no one would be buying it b/c they would already have it, right?

HB&B could use extreme leverage on any trading vehicle - why are they choosing commodities? B/c it is by the choosing of our sovereign nations that paper "money" will be in plentiful supply and there is a finite supply of commodities.

Foreign nations holding U.S. debt have leverage to print more of their own currency to buy oil and commodities with. So for them, why not shore up your oil/commodities reserves - sure beats the risk of holding funny money.

The real answer is to do whatever you can to decrease your own personal leverage to oil/commodities. CLOSE YOUR PERSONAL OIL SHORT by moving closer to work, carpooling, riding the bus instead of a car, I know it ain't that easy, but do what you can. The market can stay insolvent longer than we can stay solvent - so adjust your behavior accordingly.

Sticking the Congress dogs to find "evil" speculators is like leaving the fox in charge of the hen house - these were the same people voting for increased gov't spending repeatedly that led to the inflation in the first place! Someone needs to teach Congress some Macroeconomics 101.

About ESLR
http://preview.tinyurl.com/4v6eod

Casey Cochmer,
Were you commenting on what happened in Venezuela today and the dire straights of KRY? Was that a prediction on your part or was it an introduction to a literary novel about the Southwest--you paint beautiful images by-the-way.

Gus.

"Gone in 90 Seconds"

http://tinyurl.com/5ytozf

SFPD video showing how long it takes for someone to spot a laptop inside your parked car and make off with it...

Casey- I'm with Gus...let's hear the rest of the first chapter...

Vad,

The consolidation I'm talking about is the formation made between 1 and 1:30 between about $22 and $23. I bought on the 1 minute bar that wildly exceeded the top of that formation, soon to be body slammed like when a huge wave in the ocean hits you. Was it chasing? Absolutely. Was it dumb? Absolutely. I just couldn't comprehend how the price could be up as much as it was if there was nothing to the rumor. The fact that I checked news and couldn't find any made me even more inclined to go long, which I did with only 100 shares thank God, it was bad enuff as it was.

Thing was, if the rumors had held up or proven true even, this stock could have easily seen $26, $27 so there was maybe more left in the move, not that I'm in the rumor business. This whole thing as very un-typical, is not my style and I will be ever more the ready with the sell button the next time I do something F^&*@#% stupid, maybe tomorrow:)

ALOHA !!

CHINA GROUND REPORT
I am asking those of you who either live in China or do business there to verify the accuracy of this information I received at another site.

Tell me if you agree or disagree with it and the reasons. Thank you very much in advance!

READ ON:
CHINA BOOM OR KABOOM?

China is slowing down. It has nothing to do with the Olympics or the earthquake, which everyone agrees, are small events considering the sheer size of the Chinese economy. It started with the increase in interest rates and the “order” given by the central government to cool off the construction and the lending boom. So constructors’ don´t get the financing they need for new projects and buyers are having a tough time qualifying for reduced budgets at the lending institutions. Shenzhen hast seen prices drop 25-30%, Guangzhou 10-15% and the list goes on.

I have asked my providers how this year was going and they all agreed to say that growth had slowed down to 10-20%, while other years growth had been 30-40%. Nobody seemed very happy as commodities kept on rising this year and price increases are a guaranty sooner than later. Margins are dropping and the small guys are getting out of business.

Another factor influencing the economy has been the sudden interest/priority of the Chinese government to improve the air in the cities. Companies have been ordered to move to industrial parks in the outskirts of the cities and this has been devastating for small to medium businesses, which cannot afford such action. They will have to close. This is viewed by everyone as the chance for the big ones to get even bigger.

The falling stock market has affected the net worth of some of my wealthy providers, who drive BMW 750 or Mercedes 500. They are not as rich right now and are very distressed for the unrealized profits forgone and losses accumulated lately. These guys will spend and invest less.

Gasoline, on the other hand, still gets subsidized by the government. A litre costs 75 cents, while in Hong Kong it´s almost 3 times more expensive. I´ve heard that governments as Malaysia, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc will stop subsidizing soon as they cannot afford it anymore. Malaysia will spend 17 billion dollars this year doing that and that´s more that the army, health and education budgets put together!!!! Subsidies make the consumers keep spending money, but if subsidies are lifted it will impact directly on family budgets and I´m sure consumption will drop like a rock.

There is definitely a growth risk in Asia due to the high oil price. But consumers have been insulated from the sharp increases and therefore, tended to use as much or even more further reducing the supply and creating this spiral effect. Now as the subsidies will be eliminated one by one this will change. In India prices were increased between 10-17% last week and as you know India´s economy is a consumption driven economy – the increase in diesel and LPG will have a damaging effect on consumption.

Should China start eliminating subsidies after the Olympics (so they say) it will increase production costs dramatically and it will have a tremendous effect on their strongest pillar – export of goods.

Obviously these governments cannot eliminate all subsidies in one day as there would be so much social unrest that the governments would crumble, but at least they will start.

For the time being I see the inflation effect standing, but I definitely see commodities prices and especially oil starting to fall once the Asian governments start eliminating the oil subsidies and price controls. The economies of the U.S. and Europe will have a tough time, while Asia´s growth will be reduced. Once this reduction comes in place the demand for all commodities will drop making inflation go lower.

Is anybody buying into the Crystallex dream? I missed the morning rally as I was busy getting ready to be stupid with some Yahoo.

It seems weird that the VZ government would:

"the company said its Venezuelan government is willing to reconsider the cancellation of the environmental permit for the company's Las Cristinas gold project."

when they only just got through saying a few days ago that strip mining is like raping the land and no way are these kinds of exploitative mining practices to be allowed on The People's land?

But what if it is true? What if Crystallex happens after all? Gonna get on board the money train?...Choo Choo....

Got Nat Gas?

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The government released a short-term energy outlook last week, revising projections for natural-gas prices upward. According to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas will cost a whopping 52% more this year than last year.

Two months ago, the same forecast projected a 16.5% hike in the price of natural gas from last year, and last month, the projection was a 35% increase. Natural gas spot prices averaged $7.17 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2007 and are now expected to average more than $11 per Mcf in 2008 and 2009.

High oil prices, lower imports of liquid natural gas, growing consumption and a year-over-year decline in inventories are contributing to price increases, the government says. Factors such as an active hurricane season could alter projections even more, EIA reports, and conditions will likely continue to keep prices high.

Venezuela & GRZ - the latest on Gold Reserve

Doug Berlanger, GRZ President, was kind enough to talk at length with me today after what must have been a VERY busy day. Today, Venezuela's gov't announced reconsideration of GRZ's and KRY's denied environmental permits.

GRZ has been in VZ for 16 years; its las Brisas deposit in Bolivar State has compliant resources of 12M oz. M&I. GRZ has seemed more ready to accomodating VZ's requirements than their more heavily-promoted counterpart KRY (whose Las Cristinas deposit adjacent to Brisas has 21M compliant oz. M&I).

I understand GRZ agreed to gov't requests to process the copper in their deposit, and to share facilities with KRY. KRY is said to have been less forthcoming. GRZ had obtained their environmental permit, while KRY was still waiting for theirs.

Recently, KRY's permit was denied and GRZ's revoked. Now the VZ Environmental Ministry has been directed by the Gov't to reconsider KRY's and GRZ's environmental permits.

Meanwhile Russian-financed-and-managed Rusoro (RML.V) bought out Goldfields' and now Hecla's mines in Bolivar state, with $80M financing from Peter Hambros, Russia's 2nd largest gold miner. RML also announced its readiness to joint venture with CVG (VZ's state mining co.) initially on its newly acquired projects.

So, which way will VZ mining move? - towards allowing two Canadian-based miners to implement their long-standing plans, or towards a statist-JV model with an eager and rapidly expanding Russian partner?

Boulanger spoke in detail of GRZ's correctness on the environmental issues. The govt's recent banning of strip mining was based on an obsolete decree no longer in effect. Environmental damage in the area occurred before GRZ's watch. There are no illegal miners working on Las Brisas site. GRZ has done many good things for local communities, including a plan to employ local artisanal miners. GRZ's Venezuelan staff has prepared filings for the Environmental Ministry, and a hearing is forthcoming on the reconsideration of GRZ's (now-revoked) environmental permit.

Boulanger is a mining guy - with Gold Reserve 25 years since its days as a contractor, and was a founder of Pegasus Gold. However, he is not a political guy, and is not playing a high-level political game in VZ (as I imagine the Russians are).

It would seem that if the gov't judges the issues on their merits, GRZ would stand a good chance of reinstatement of their environmental permit. The company claims long-standing and cordial relations with key officials in both Environmental and Mining Ministries.

It's impossible to judge the outcome of such proceedings, even if you're right in the thick of it.

Boulanger cautioned against generalizations about today's VZ. Still, western investment in VZ has plummeted, while the list of expropriations (all compensated) grows to encompass the oil, cement, dairy, and ranching industries.

If the worst came to the worst, GRZ is said by Otto Rock, who seems to know his latin mining finance (incanews.blogspot.com) to have net assets of $2.12 per share (still perhaps a "safe buy" at 1.70). KRY is believed to be negative.

Whether by capitalism, or "21st Century Socialism", these huge deposits in Bolivar State won't likely go un-mined for long, in order to protect a forest preserve.

Possibly encompassing 40+M oz. of cheaply recoverable gold (on paved roads, near cheap hydro power, near a deep-water port, strip-mined where diesel costs $0.08/gallon) might be the biggest event in the gold mining industry in decades!

"ESLR - just released news of $300M convertible notes offering to fund expansion. Dropped $0.50 after hours on the news..."

And the funny thing is, this is not a big surprise. They said during their last earnings call, and again recently at their investor day presentation, that they would consider all options, including straight debt financing and an equity offering. A convertible debt offering was not their first choice, but the terms look favorable and, more importantly, it provides the necessary capital to complete their production facilities.

They also promised to fund future growth from cash flow. Given their large backlog, I have no doubt they will be able to deliver.

The short interest in this stock is extraordinary right now. And the drop tonite AH stinks of someone try to steal away shares from timid retail longs.

astral -

re: nat gas

storage injections of late starting to call into question whether inventories will be adequate to meet demand for winter withdrawals

there has been a marked decrease of lng imports as demand coming out of asia and lesser degree europe (spain) is driving up spot prices of cargos well beyond north america price levels

pertaining to north america s&d situation, partial offset with increase in domestic production from shale plays that have become economic with new drilling technology

all in all, fundamentals look more bullish for gas than for other hydrocarbons (with possible exception of coal where situation in china appears critical)

all a moot point if crude comes off hard as will likely take down rest of energy complex with it

GRgold:

Thanks

I have been in the southwest for 8 months and the ghost towns stuck me, as being similar to what we are facing now in the stock market, I wondered how before the last days of the town, how the people could cling to hope, but hope isn't enough to save the town.

KRY reminds me of that: hope of the permit. The overall market is on edge of falling: and here is this glimmer of hope and so many flock to it...

Hope is a dangerous commodity in these times. Bill is right: do you see any of the owners of KRY buying their own stock lately: when I looked today in the filings I didn't see any of them buying into this hope.

At the moment I wrote that post, I was sitting in Taos watching a storm come over our porch, lighting and rain coming down: except all the rain evaporated in mid air. Beautiful but no water in the end reaching me. Hope looks good that is for sure, but in this market, it's not good enough to live by.

peace

ALOHA !!

GEORGE CARLIN says this ...
"It's called the AMERICAN DREAM, because you have to be asleep to believe it!"

Link: http://tinyurl.com/6aud8p

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!

Billy - I agree with most all of your points, however I want to pose a question for your ponderance... If in fact HB&B IS speculating with money borrowed from the Federal Reserve (at negative interest in real terms), are you saying US taxpayers will benefit? What's in it for HB&B?

Gas, grass or ass - It's not acceptable to me if HB&B are allowed to speculate with taxpayer monies, driving up commodities (no matter how temporary), then making off with the proceeds to cover their sub-prime debt. If this is acceptable, then why shouldn't I/you be allowed the same opportunity, and why is this all going on under the table?

I smell a rat!!! Of course I must point out, I have no proof of the above, only a theory.

At this point I have a short story to tell, using my Andy Rooney voice...

Back in the early ninetys while having morning coffee, I received a telephone call out of the blue from a broker who proceeded to tell me how I should consider buying K-mart stock because it was a strong company and stock holders were going to see excellent returns from their investment. Additionally, he offered to arrange a purchase.

I promptly told the broker in my sometimes brash manner that "if I were considering a stock purchase, my choice would definitely be Wal-Mart, instead of K-Mart".

Upon my response, the broker practically hung up his phone to move on to the next sucker. I wondered at that moment how many fixed-income grandmothers bought K-Mart stock through him that day. When Enron folded a few years later, I wondered again about those same grandmothers.

Well, a few years later I discovered my own mother had been convinced by HB&B brokers to set up a portfolio for which they would act as her advisor.

It's needless to say how that business deal benefitted my mother over the years... So you see, Billy, I'm not prejudiced with respect to speculators or speculating, but I do have an adament position on speculating with other peoples money without full disclosure.

At this moment there is wide concern in the press about whether speculators have driven up oil prices, or if a true supply/demand issue exists. The concern is genuine, but misdirected in the focus on oil. In fact, the concern should be about energy commodities in whole, and an honest press would be reporting this honestly. These folks are asleep, having been dummied down ever since Mutual of Omaha's Wild Animal Kingdom went off air. They know somethings afowl, they just haven't raised their level of consciousness to a coherent level yet.

Yet, Billy, don't you wonder how those grandmothers are going to heat their homes this winter, and if they'll have to resort to eating dog food to keep from going hungry? While there really is no such thing as ethics, that still doesn't stop me from wondering about those grandmothers out there.

Good morning.

One Cara 100 ratings Change to report:

BMY - JP Morgan initiates coverage with a Neutral.

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Have a great day.