bill- you should stick with the drinking...when you add a running problem, something like that's bound to happen ;)

airlines-> pulled out of their nosedive and soaring this morning...

refiners trying to reverse yesterday's losses...SMN, however, hits a new 52-wk low...

CAF-> adding here...

short ubs short leh baby!!!!!!!!

New ETN that employs a 130/30 strategy.

The portfolio invests 100% of assets in a stock set, and then short-sells the 30% of the stocks with the worst rankings. The cash proceeds from the short sales (30%) are added to the 100% long portfolio. Thus the fund is 130% long and 30% short.

Marketwatch: http://tinyurl.com/5cfwxc

Digging into some DUG...

SiO2- 130/30 (or any other split number) might work with the Cara 100, if you were to short those in the DZ and use proceeds to invest further in those in the AZ...so you could have a 'floating' split, more like a (AZ+longs)/(DZ+shorts) going at any particular time?

shark- SUN up 3.7%...can't turn down invitations like that...

Where can I view the updated/current cara 100 list in its entirety?
TIA

[Bill Cara note: The Cara 100 Global list is in the top nav bar menu.]

Bill,

Here's a list of a few other things not to do while drinking other than running.

Offer to give your car to anyone who can do more push-ups than you.

Explain the sheer genius of Scientology to those thick-skulled morons at the biker bar.

Teach the baby her ABCs.

Confess to your buddies that whenever you say "Carmen Electra," you secretly mean Joy Behar.

and the Number 1 Thing Not to Do While Drinking...

Demonstrate to your kids the importance of mowing your pool

Bill, So only one member of the group was able to validate the running problem claim?

[Bill Cara note: Actually two of us fell in the same place, but I was the injured one. The embankment was about 6 ft high and was muddy with rocks. I jumped down on a rock that moved. Drinking or no drinking, I would not have kept my balance. For the record, we run or walk first, and drink afterwards to celebrate. In my case, from the doctor's orders to my ears, it was to kill the pain.]

short solarfun

thx to whomever posted that Henry K Liu article, informative as always.

if gold can make a strong move above $900 in the next few sessions and stay above $900 on any sharp pullbacks, i will be loading back up to go long for the road to $1100 and beyond.

until then its waiting and watching for me.

2nd, yes, that would be the CARA100 Hedge fund/ETN. Should be a great winner. Need to back test it.

[Bill Cara note: I assembled a research, modelling and trading team from this Community and will soon be offering a Cara 100 ETN, plus one for Income and another for Precious Metal Miners & Explorers. The team is back-testing various models. At the end of the day though, the models help with guidance, but the traders have to skillfully work the positions. This is the service I was referring to when I discussed requiring SEC registration before offering managed account services (particularly to Americans, but also internationally wherever Interactive Brokers is registered to trade.) If there is adequate demand, then we will offer a Fund via IPO. But you have to appreciate that securities rules are complex, and principally built for HB&B--not to protect the public as the regulators like to say, although clearly there is an element of that required as well.]

SiO2- keep us posted...i would actually invest in something like that if the numbers turn out the way i suspect they might...

Well the solarfun short didnt work out, too ballsy. The other 2 worked out though.

where is everybody? what are you doing? anyone have any good ideas?

2nd...SUN is in WAY too much of a downtrend for me to buy... might short the rally though:)

shark, i'm selling july bmy 20 puts at 0.80. Looking at bdk, but don't like the bid/ask spread.

DIA JUL puts, SKF call, VIX call, SMN call.

jragusa,

I am not much of an options player at this point, I'm still trying to learn how to hustle stock. I looked at the chart though, and other than that it's in a downtrend, nothing's really screaming at me. We all have our own styles and techniques though, so let me know how it goes, I just don't really have any input for you. My friend Mike_nyc might have a few ideas.

shark- OK (was referring to my invitation yesterday to buy the, in which case you could be selling today)...refiners are a longer-term play for me...

meant to say 'buy the sell-off'...

2nd,

I don't believe in long term plays. I believe what's here today is gone tomorrow, and I believe in having a different girl for each night of the week (still working on mon-wed). By the way, did you tell me that you are a lawyer?

Curious on opinions of SRS? In at 116 and 101.

SRS - long term hold.

shark -no

nothing wrong with having different time horizons for different positions...

I also believe there are many ways to make money and even more ways to lose, I believe in free love, cereal killers (I have it in for Cheerio's,)cute kitty cats, and I believe in drinking heavily before running. I don't believe in ufo's, global warming, nor do I suggest standing in an open field under klieg lights at night covered in honey.

Somebody liking the results of the Bell court hearings...

I was at the Bonnaroo music festival for the last 3 days in Tennessee, taking a break. I should have got out of FXP when it was $80+ like several told me, but I just bought it at $78 last week. I have DIA puts, but mostly cash right now. I will have more time to trade starting tomorrow.

Wave, no results yet, straddle was the obvious play.

bOss,

I hope you learned all about the different kinds of mushrooms....

RTN thru the 30 daily RSI 7 today on contract news. We'll see if it stays and finishes above the 30 RSI7. (Long)

Linear DOW decline headed for 12100 by end of day. That's the catastrophic plunge point if broken.

USO- ST support (to an untrained eye) appears to be in the 106-108 range...is anyone able to narrow that down...

USO ST support is 108.36, then down to 102.47, then 99.80. Then down to 86.59 - 87.76. Hope it helps.

Seamus: Keeping my eye on Cenex.

craig- thanks...welcome back

Sorry to hear about that nasty spill Bill.
I hope you're feeling better today.

I used to bounce like a rubber ball, now it seems something always gets knocked out of place and takes longer to feel right.

If you have a little time maybe a hair of the dog will get you over the hump. At least you will be relaxed....

[Bill Cara note: I have a running problem; not a drinking problem. I'm hoping to be back to normal by Thursday afternoon--not for running mind you, but for...whatever.]

Arrgghh....GLAD to be back 2nd. The level of suport here is beyond quantifying.

For a view of my grindstone, look-up Benson's Syndrome or PCA. That's what Mom is up against.
My job is to handle all her biz plus her LT care.

And maintain a healthy level of stress.....
Wish me luck!

Craig

Know you're following the price of oil re Cenex. CHSCP overall stock price seems to always dip on the ex-dividend date which was 6/12. People want that big check the end of the month ;) Ag products still in play and a steady supplier of biofuel and mandated ethanol.

BTW Bill.....as soon as this part of the crisis with my Mom is over and she has 24 hr care I'm up for a working vacation to invest her resources for her LT care.

I'm emphasizing the vacation component....

Looks like the timing may be about right to dovetail with your efforts.

LEH rolling over (again).

Wonder why every stock I anticipate buying just keeps rising until the moment the order is closed...

Shark - If I buy FRO, will you short it for me?

LAYN showing some strength today . . . took profits @ 49.31 in my wife's IRA . . still retaining some in regular account.

LEH - This shouldn't drop, considering they outperformed market expectation...right!!! (notice the use of a very dangerous word "should")

The Anheuser-Busch buyout is troubling. Almost as troubling as the Cheney-Bush buyout by the Cartel.

Was I crazy to spot an ascending triangle reversal on the .dji last night? Was thinking we were headed about 225 points up over next few days based on depth, but here we go down again.....

Gold -

Seasonal weakness in gold is found in the summer months. If the May 2nd lows hold, which they might, the bottom may be in.

Here is a chart of things I am looking at:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96993160488&a=143001592

If the MACD and Stoch cross (that I note) is confirmed and the downtrend line is broken to the upside, I think we will have a pretty good probability of testing the $960 level. Then looking at inverted h&s (bullish) with a neckline break and upside target near all time highs.

As far as support; it is clear that the $850 and 50% retracement will serve.

I have mentioned many times here that fib works with gold, you can clearly see that it does.

I heard on CNBC that the story of the fed raising rates (rally in $USD) is probably wrong due to latest data. Duh! Whoever fell for that story wasn't thinking straight. Bernanke wouldn't raise rates at a significant pace during economic weakness in an election year. There is so much bs out there it makes one laugh (or get sick).

I am long gold, but don't take this post as a recommendation - things change quickly and you need to do your own dd. We need to see a few confirmations for guidance.

Craig

Saddened to read about your mother. Just a guess, but you're also probably the oldest one among the children. Been thru some issues myself handling family aging and estate matters. Best of luck to you!

..."The Industrials fell 38.27 points Monday, in choppy trading, closing at 12,269.08. Our top count considers wave 3 down of {iii} down of {3} down has started, a sharp decline. There is the alternate possibility that higher degree micro wave 1 down, within wave iii down, just completed, and wave 2 up is occurring into our June 20th +/- phi mate turn. In either case, we believe prices could be headed for the 11,500ish area over the next month, with 9,750 a strong possibility should prices drop decisively below 12,000. Short-term, we see a Rising Bearish Wedge has formed over the past few days, suggesting a top is close. The 30 minute Full Stochastics also suggest a short-term top is close" - McHugh

Since we have had two Hindenburg Omens recently, those without a technical data service can get a 30 day trial of McHugh here:

http://tinyurl.com/hbvko

If you don't believe in Elliot Waves and Fibbonaci series forecasting, don't bother.

Follow up to g034 gold presentation.

Seasonally, the early summer months are not normally a strong time for gold. It tends to top out in May, move lower into June or July and then stabilize as it builds a base before moving higher in August and continuing to move higher into the end of the year. The best way to use such seasonal tendencies is to see whether or not a market is following its normal pattern or is moving in a contrary fashion. Any market that refuses to move lower during a period in which it historically tends to move lower is by definition a strong market. Contrarily, any market which does not move higher during a period in which it tends to move higher is by definition a weak market. If gold can hold above major support near $850 and maintain that level or higher for the next 6 weeks or so, it will prove to be most revealing. If it does not and moves down below that level, it will only be doing what seasonally it normally does anyway. Those who therefore predict the end of the bull market in gold during a period of seasonal weakness are betraying a great deal of ignorance about markets in general. Either that or they are too damned lazy to study price patterns.

These comments per Dan Norcini, a commodities pro.

A trader can believe in Fib but not Elliot Wave.

IMO, Fib exists, EW is mostly hindsight.

Tstar - thanks, I meant to mention that.

When did Bill say the book would be available on Amazon?

[Bill Cara note: I figure about Monday. The books were shipped yesterday and upon receipt it takes about 72 hours according to Amazon before their website inventory is updated.]

Should've mentioned it was on the hourlies....

EW is all hindsight, but the patterns repeat consistently. Therefore after you identify past patterns to date, you can take a guess at where you "are" on the cycle.

Elliot Wave is truly the way to madness....

There's blood in the Dow waters.

I will short your momma and ship her c.o.d.

SWC filled a gap today at $10.45 that was created on Feb 1 (when it gapped an ran to $22). It hit as low as $10.27 this morning and has reversed up to $10.65 right now. I'll be watching the last hour to see if volume indicates covering en masse.

Could be a nice short term bottom if it closes green (above 10.84).

I am currently averaged in at 11.56 and wanting to add but am sitting on my hands for some confirmation of a bottom. Warning to those who don't follow it - this stock is heavily manipulated.

I sold my bullion at yesterday's peak in anticipation of $850.... That's ~ where I'll re-enter

"IMO, Fib exists, EW is mostly hindsight."

Opps... I have a feeling go34 won't approve of my preferred method of reading tea leaves... :(

Vad, you're an Elliot Waver?

I wouldn't tell Elliot Wave from funnel cloud, shark. Me is simple creature

g034 and Telestar3d:

I appreciate your commentary.

thanks.

joey

Seamus: You nailed it.
The eldest of three sons so you know where it all falls.
Thank you....I'm going to need a little luck.

Here we go. 12200 did not hold.

Vad,

I gotta tell you I spent a lot of time on your website last night. I particularly enjoyed the video interview of you as well as the first chapter of your book where you describe life in the Soviet Union and coming to North America. Many times while trading I ask myself "What would Vad do?" I'm also the guy who called and bothered you at home asking about holding positions overnight a week or 2 ago, and you were very kind to answer my question.

Haaa! Good one Shark!!!

Pooh, that was you... :)

I heard the name wrong. Anyway, thank you for good words.

That chapter is badly written... need to find time and polish it a bit

Reversal in Apex - SIL

ALOHA!!

ON LYM
There will be a series of four news releases starting within the next two weeks outlining the changes that will occur. It seems that Lysander, via the Aussie Director, will own a large deposit of coal, but I do not know yet what country. I assume Australia since the Director has ties to a large ASX listed gold and coal producer. Understand that I do not have all the complete info as those in charge will not divulge all the details until the news release is out.

More later ...

ON LLC
Teck Cominco is still very upbeat about the JaJay and Lorraine properties. One of my sources was onsite talking to the lead geologist for Cominco saying they definitely believe there is a mine there and went further to say the Pinchi property should have never been returned to LYM by Cominco. For what thats worth ... Apparently there was a bit of a disconnect on that subject between management and the geologists at Cominco!

I do own shares of LYM and LLC ...

found these links on another blog..

http://tinyurl.com/4dn7wp

http://tinyurl.com/43lbdo

fact or fiction?

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Congrats on your problems of running with drunks! I used to run with drunks! HA!!! Only it wasn't a "sporting club" in the Bahamas ... Judging from some of those photos are the runners actually stopping during the race to drink beer or are they warming up before the race? Or is that "root beer"? I'll have to start training ... where's my Fosters!

Agriculture.

Beyond the human tragedy, the flooding in Iowa and other parts of the Midwest may also lead to higher food prices and lower exports.

Corn harvest could be down 10-12% this year.

http://tinyurl.com/4ojyj9

For those who survived, they hope July and August is not hot and dry. For those who lost crop, farmers have a choice. Can file claims with insurance and wait 'till next year. Or replant with more fertilizer. (Some may try both. Depending on policy, may encounter legal problems with claim if second planting successful)

Kaimu -

Thanks for the info on LYM and LLC.

Do you have any promising ASX juniors you'd like to share?

BUstudent - Ellen Brown seems to be correct, from my understanding of the subject. Only I believe Stearns' balance sheet was incredibly weak, as I fear most of HB&B are, due to the housing debacle. IMO - Theirs was a plan to raid the Federal Reserve... Now let's see if the money is returned at no cost to US Citizens....

Is toronto looking a bit toppy? Looks like a triple top to this untrained eye, and I think that's important...

http://tinyurl.com/643cjw

Hi,

I have been away for personal reasons, but sometimes I do give a peak.

Today's post by Go34 is, IMO, absolutely correct.

Currently I do not have the patience to build another chart, but I have made one last weekend, which tells a similar story.

http://tinyurl.com/6pdb3z

I am long gold here, expecting a breakout or breakdown to occur in the very near future, ie, tomorrow or by as late as Thursday.

Please do not trade on this. This is not an advice. Please DYODD.

Cheers,

iran's Ahmadinejad:

http://tinyurl.com/3rz2h9

"The market is full of oil and the rising price trend is "fake and imposed," Iran's president said on Tuesday, partly blaming a weak U.S. dollar which he said was being pushed lower on purpose."

I cannot believe that Cardima may have gotten off the mat again. This company is like a cat with 9 lives. The company seems to have finally hired people to get more market share (Europe, Britain, China), and thus generate more sorely needed cash. It seems like a 10% owner cannot get enough shares, buying daily on the open market. Cardima develops micro catheters for cardiac arrhythmias. Cardima seems to be working out of someones basement (shoestring budget). My guess is that they may try to get FDA approval for a third time. It seems in the past, they were denied not because of the device, but because of the lack of proper testing (due to lack of cash). The stock has now doubled in the last month. There just seems to be a positive vibe about this stock recently. Don't get me wrong, this is a crapshoot, but the new CEO seems to be doing the right things. For a much safer stock pick, I am and will be very postive about USU (uranium).

ALOHA !!

moab ... currently I own two, Perilya-PEM and Silver Lakes-SLR.

ON PEM
Perilya will soon own all of the famous BROKEN HILL mine that gave BHP its start. This will be the first time since BHP sold out that that the entire BROKEN HILL mine will be under the control of one miner. In Jan 2008 I toured BROKEN HILL and I have to say it is a massive mine in a very mining friendly region. The town of Broken Hill has been close to mining for many decades now and in fact the mine goes right underground of the town. I also toured outside Broken Hill and there are very promising base metals surrounding the known mine. Ian Plimer, a reknown geologist in Australia, has moved to Broken Hill because he believes at depth the mine has another 65 years left with better grades.

Perilya will merge with CBH in July. I believe the merger is a good fit since both comanies have some very impressive deposits in gold, silver and base metals. Perilya's Mt. Oxide has some very impressive copper grades running around 9% Cu ... Perilya is currently a producer and pays a dividend. The share price has adjusted down to an five year low under $1AUD. Going forward I believe it is a good buy once they integrate CBH.

ON SLR
In Perth in Jan 2008 I met with investors who told me about SLR. I did some due diligence and saw that many of management originated from WMC Resources a company that was bought out a few years ago and these guys decided to throw in with Silver Lakes, so we have a successful group of managers and Directors involved. Some 72% of shares issued are in the control of management, other miners and top ten shareholders. Perilya owns nearly 10% of SLR.

Already with 1.1mil au ounces and a 300t/d mill ready to bump up production as well as promising properties nearby that could move reserves up to 2-5mil.

Well, he has a point. The weak dollar is largely to blame, the "shortage" is largely one created by our fearless leaders, and the dollar is being pushed lower on purpose, so i guess the guy has a point.

Oil,

Guys, when I look at the chart of $WTIC I notice an upper shadow a day or 2 ago combined with what appear to be negative divergences in both the macd and the slow stochastic. Anyone else care to take a look? Mike?

how can we blame the dollar? Oil has essentially doubled in the first rate cut in October when the dollar was just below 80 and now it is above 72 which is roughly a 10% decline which has caused a 100% rise to crude prices?

Sounds like rhetoric to me, What Ahmadinejad meant to say... please don't freeze our assets and make our country go thirsty...

By the way Ahmadinejad is the one who will has IRAN's oil sitting on tankers outside of their waters because no one wants to pay SWEET/BRENT price for IRANS SOUR CRUDE.

Everyone has an agenda to get across.

Not to steal Kaimu coined phrase but we could go a little further that... People are only as honest as their money or GDP.

Al Gore's home uses more electricty in one year than 250 average homes do...

What a fraud... share this with friends and family... It shows....
the point that everyone has an agenda..

http://tinyurl.com/6guudd

nergy Guzzled by Al Gore’s Home in Past Year Could Power 232 U.S. Homes for a Month
Gore’s personal electricity consumption up 10%, despite “energy-efficient” home renovations

NASHVILLE - In the year since Al Gore took steps to make his home more energy-efficient, the former Vice President’s home energy use surged more than 10%, according to the Tennessee Center for Policy Research.

“A man’s commitment to his beliefs is best measured by what he does behind the closed doors of his own home,” said Drew Johnson, President of the Tennessee Center for Policy Research. “Al Gore is a hypocrite and a fraud when it comes to his commitment to the environment, judging by his home energy consumption.”

In the past year, Gore’s home burned through 213,210 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, enough to power 232 average American households for a month.

In February 2007, An Inconvenient Truth, a film based on a climate change speech developed by Gore, won an Academy Award for best documentary feature. The next day, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research uncovered that Gore’s Nashville home guzzled 20 times more electricity than the average American household.

After the Tennessee Center for Policy Research exposed Gore’s massive home energy use, the former Vice President scurried to make his home more energy-efficient. Despite adding solar panels, installing a geothermal system, replacing existing light bulbs with more efficient models, and overhauling the home’s windows and ductwork, Gore now consumes more electricity than before the “green” overhaul.

Since taking steps to make his home more environmentally-friendly last June, Gore devours an average of 17,768 kWh per month –1,638 kWh more energy per month than before the renovations – at a cost of $16,533. By comparison, the average American household consumes 11,040 kWh in an entire year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

In the wake of becoming the most well-known global warming alarmist, Gore won an Oscar, a Grammy and the Nobel Peace Prize. In addition, Gore saw his personal wealth increase by an estimated $100 million thanks largely to speaking fees and investments related to global warming hysteria.

“Actions speak louder than words, and Gore’s actions prove that he views climate change not as a serious problem, but as a money-making opportunity,” Johnson said. “Gore is exploiting the public’s concern about the environment to line his pockets and enhance his profile.”

The Tennessee Center for Policy Research, a Nashville-based free market think tank and watchdog organization, obtained information about Gore’s home energy use through a public records request to the Nashville Electric Service.

The Tennessee Center for Policy Research is an independent, nonprofit and nonpartisan research organization committed to achieving a freer, more prosperous Tennessee through the ideas of liberty. Visit TCPR online at: www.tennesseepolicy.org.

Another confirming Hindenburg Omen Tuesday.

A green contrarian view that adds up
http://tinyurl.com/3tgjyw

When g034 speaks, I listen.

Re gold, senior gold stocks are looking weak. I'd want to see something like GDX or $HUI break the March downtrend as confirmation of a gold breakout.

Re DBA, after it broke out of its downtrend, it launched like a rocket. Trendlines are your friend, use them. Those hot on grains and food would've made a lot. There are confusing tax issues with DB funds so I stay away.

A very uneven market right now, as evidenced by multiple Hindenburg Omens, which are only possible with a large amount of both new highs and new lows.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

You may recall I once postulated the HBB's would spalt on the canyon floor like Wile E. Coyote, and that Uncle Ben could paint a tunnel on the side of a mountain that Banking Buddies could pass through but the Angry Consumer would be flattened. (Buy ACME)

Here are the economic Cartoon Laws:

http://tinyurl.com/4p5efd

Actually, according to the Associated Press, Al Gore's house and business (he and Tipper work from home, so you all have to ADD your business electrical use to compare) uses *twelve* times the average American home buit in 2006. However it is also older than the average American home and is four times larger. The Gore's home uses the same average amount of power that other homes of comparable size use in the same area. Remember....this is a neighborhood of large homes/mansions of wealthy owners, hardly average Americans. One must wonder what someone like Bill Gates' power use might be for his electronic mansion on Lake Washington that is substantially larger then Gores mansion....it IS a mansion afterall.

They also pay a rather large premium on their power because they buy green power which is a bit more costly, but renders them a zero carbon footprint. Where's that information in this *unbiased* non-partisan smear article?
Are "guzzled", "hypocrite", "hysteria" and "fraud" independent, nonpartisan neutral terms? Only a dupe could think so.

If my home was four times larger I would be using about half of Al Gores use and I use as many energy saving devices as possible.
It would still be smaller than Gore's place by a considerable margin.

I do question the source, as power use is a private matter and not subject to public records requests. I know for sure those records are constitutionally protected in my state, so we won't be getting Bill Gates energy use from Seattle City Light public records as they are private, not public, anymore than we can know each others phone bill, numbers called or bank records. That rings of bullshit.
I couldn't make a public request for private power bills without my utility laughing at me anymore than I could get your bank statements.

If you have an axe to grind you can make anything you want of numbers. It doesn't make it true.

It is true he uses 12 times the average American home uses but if he is an average American I want to know where all my money, influence and square footage went. Do Tennesseans use the average amount of power? How would we know by this supposedly independent hack job?
This is an apples to oranges comparison.
Most Americans don't work at home, don't have a mansion, and don't use green power due to the added cost. Most Americans don't live in large southern mansions.

How about we use the average of those in his income bracket, home size and local weather conditions. Then let's see what the numbers say.

And what would be the "agenda"?

And yours Norm? Do you work for Exxon? Cheney?
Another of the oil conglomerates?
Judging from the inflammatory and judgemental language of the article, it is nearly impossible to recognize anything non-partisan, neutral, or simply informative about it. Sounds like Exxon to me.

I suppose those satellite photos of Antarctica, Alaska and Greenland disappearing are part of Gores vast green conspiracy. Afterall, he must have more conflict of interest than the oil companies.
They couldn't possibly be lining their pockets or spending billions on public relations/propaganda campaign, right? Not a TV watcher or newspaper reader, eh?
As they used to say in those old cartoons with the gullible doofy wolf...."Uh, that sounds logical".

Political urban legends....

http://tinyurl.com/23deus

Excellent rebuttal Craig, there really are two sides to every coin.

ALOHA !!

norm ... Its not the USDX you need to look at but the rate of money supply and velocity. The USDX is just a weighted measure like the US CPI. Some 75% of the USDX is the Euro. What would happen if the USDX was re-weighted with less Euro and more Pound and Yen? At some point I guarantee the USDX will be re-weighted just like Goldman re-weighted the GSCI some three years ago to suppress the price of oil. I am wondering when such tactics like that will be tried again? Now would be a good time! Also no would be a good time to repatriate US Pesos like the US Treasury did a few years ago. To make them temporarily "mo bedda"!

This is Mises reporting what is happening today over sixty years ago. This was posted today(6/17)at the Cunning Realist website. Isn't it amazing that in the land of the free and the home of the brave those who are responsible and productive always are forced to take care of those who are irresponsible and unproductive. I won't get into the definition of who is what, since I believe my past posts address that, but one hint is "we keep re-electing these useless unproductive louts"!

Hummmmmm ... the problem with building and planning for the future with the basis of those plans in a fiat monetary system is that there is no future for those who cling to fiat. Its like building on shifting sands by the ocean ... There never is stability.

The basis of all our problems ... even social equity ... is the "quality" of our money, period!

READ ON:
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
From The Frying Pan To The Fire

Ludwig von Mises in The Theory of Money and Credit:

In normal times, that is in periods in which the government does not tamper with the monetary standard, people do not bother about monetary problems. Quite naively they take it for granted that the monetary unit's purchasing power is "stable." They pay attention to changes occurring in the money prices of the various commodities. They know very well that the exchange ratios between different commodities vary. But they are not conscious of the fact that the exchange ratio between money on the one side and all commodities and services on the other side is variable too. When the inevitable consequences of inflation appear and prices soar, they think that commodities are becoming dearer and fail to see that money is getting cheaper. In the early stages of an inflation only a few people discern what is going on, manage their business affairs in accordance with this insight, and deliberately aim at reaping inflation gains. The overwhelming majority are too dull to grasp a correct interpretation of the situation. They go on in the routine they acquired in noninflationary periods. Filled with indignation, they attack those who are quicker to apprehend the real causes of the agitation of the market as "profiteers" and lay the blame for their own plight on them. This ignorance of the public is the indispensable basis of the inflationary policy. Inflation works as long as the housewife thinks: "I need a new frying pan badly. But prices are too high today; I shall wait until they drop again." It comes to an abrupt end when people discover that the inflation will continue, that it causes the rise in prices, and that therefore prices will skyrocket infinitely. The critical stage begins when the housewife thinks: "I don't need a new frying pan today; I may need one in a year or two. But I'll buy it today because it will be much more expensive later." Then the catastrophic end of the inflation is close. In its last stage the housewife thinks: "I don't need another table; I shall never need one. But it's wiser to buy a table than keep these scraps of paper that the government calls money, one minute longer."

Human nature doesn't change; while Mises wrote The Theory of Money and Credit long before the phrase "peak oil" became fashionable, the first sentence I highlighted indicates he wouldn't have been surprised at the urgency with which the word "drill" is spoken today. And substitute "speculators" for Mises's "profiteers." Sound familiar? Similarly, inflation's basic dynamic is always the same. But various inflationary periods, both in the U.S. and elsewhere, have played out differently. If our current one matches Mises's classic life cycle of inflation, and today's housewife hasn't yet bought that new frying pan (drivers filling cars a quarter-tank at a time hoping for lower prices next week, etc.) then expediency's best days are still to come.

posted by The Cunning Realist

ALOHA !!

I have been that "housewife" ... GUILTY ... the one that Mises speaks of! I have been buying some items I feel will cost too much later on. Items like ...

- 2008 Scion XD(good gas milage)
- 2006 Honda Ruckus(75mpg)
- PVC pipe and fittings
- Lumber
- Gravel
- Supplemental canned food
- Fishing tackle
- Tarps
- Light bulbs
- Batteries
- Generators
- Spare gas(enough for Kona or airport)
- Guns and ammo

In my "Boy Scout" mind prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Prepare to live off the "grid"! Living in Hawaii provides the "basics" free and clean from Mother Nature, like water and fresh fruit and fish. The above purchases I view as just "supplemental" like supplemental Medicare insurance!!!!

Prudence is not to be overlooked in these times ...