Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change:

ADBE - Downgraded to Neutral @ Cowen & Co.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

http://tinyurl.com/3nhrux

Dinner for ONE in Zimbabwe ... Although humorous, this restaurant slip illustrates the harsh reality of a country in a huge mess and with an inflation rate going ballistic.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/4q37vt

craig- driving into work this morning i was listening to buffalo springfield and it took me back to the winter of '71-> i was 16, flew down to silver spring MD to visit a childhood friend...we were sitting in his family's basement, he was showing me the changes to Procol Harum's Whiter Shade of Pale on the piano (which i'm planning to teach the six-year old in another year or two), and we played two new albums on the turntable all weekend: Neil Young's After the Goldrush and Bob Dylan's New Morning...sat up all night talking about the draft, about school, about growing up, but mostly about music-> how does john densmore play the opening intro to break on through, how does hendrix get that feedback, how much pedal do you use when playing a ballad...that's exactly what this blog reminds me of-> a community of amateur traders learning how to play-> appreciate all the ideas/charts/patterns/thoughts and even the off-topic bull sessions...

btw-> as of last night, the port is up 19.8% YTD...(if i divide the gains by the maximum 50% of the port i allow myself to trade, then it's actually a 39.6% return on capital invested)...thank you to bill and the entire community-> nothing beats a year-round jam session that never stops...

today's gartman:

sell short gold at $875, add to short position if gold falls below $865

barf.

Congrats 2nd! "Something's happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear..."

I'm not in a wonderful place today...feeling some pain from GFI and I held a few shares of SKF overnight and slammed a finger in the door....if you know what I mean.

The short bonds are doing alright though...

I'll never forget when my best friend learned to do hammer-ons and had his guitar teacher show him "eruption" as best they could. In his room one night he turned his back away from me and played it and I thought...
This is *expletive deleted* amazing!

short gold is definitely the play. I TOLD you guys at 1000 and so did Bill C.

so you've been dzz'ing your way up?

When I started guitar lessons I was 10 years old and the song to learn was "Pipeline". Just a couple years later it was the feedback to "Foxy Lady". I still have the 65' Rickenbacher Jr. Guitar I learned on, but prefer an acoustic these days.

I used to play California Charvels thru Marshall 1/2 stacks. Almost got a record deal too back in the mid 90's (I know, me and the rest of humanity).

2nd...those are some outstanding returns in this market. fyi, you are in the top 5-10% or whatever of hedge fund managers.

january, man...that's what did it..the rest has been the daily grind we're all into...

zeroing in on QID/SMN...

1) BOE holds rates steady.
2) ECB holds rates steady.
3 US $ goes up.
seem odd to anybody else?

damn scottrade - anybody else having charting issues?

maybe the USD is up b/c expectations were for rate increases by BOE/ECB?

Bought DIA, maybe hold until tomorrow...

"seem odd to anybody else?"

Not me. There's a concerted push to prop up the dollar. See Bernanke comments among others, Saudis earlier this week or last confirming peg, etc. etc.

USD would have definitely weakened if they raised rates. They did U.S. a favor not raising.

Brazil's CB raised .50 points late yesterday. BZF (Long) at 26 this a.m.

2nd: let me know when you get into QID, I'll sell ROM....and join you.

2nd,

you adding to smn?

shark-> keeping an eye on DCR...if CT's scenario of an exhaustion spike plays out sooner rather than later-> piling into DCR at the right time would be the ultimate short oil trade...

I also have to congratulate you on selling your dcr yesterday as did I (twice)

Thinking of getting back in after the gas #?

2nd - are you worried that the NASDAQ is now trading above it's 200 DMA?

moving to 80% exposure in SMN/QID...however, there's probably a taoist parable that any move one makes the same day one announces his YTD returns will prove humbling..(i really believe that, so tread carefully)...

always worried...

i was stupid to wait..this things done great

hard to get used to the CAF/FXI divergence...

one day can make all the difference-> vinod and i sold the airlines tuesday and wednesday? so today oil's up and WTH?

To quote a guy who wrote a book so good I can't even mention the title,

"victory waits for it's captor in the shadow of uncetainty."

Anyone who knows the title and the author wins a prize from Bill:)

The yen carry trade is back on. The jpy/eur spike should be sold, forget ecb, the french will not tolerate the euro at 165, neither will the German unions. People are looking for a catalyst to ashakeout. This is where it will start. Southern Europe is in bad financial straits, and Germany will not be able to carry it any longer. The American indexes are up solely on the strength of the yen carry. The housing delinquncies are horrific and California is a month away from default.Sell the usd/yen on the spike.

It looks like Trichet's comments this morning stole a bit of the wind from Bernanke's jawboning show from Tuesday. Gold and silver have already rebounded this morning, which is rather difficult to accomplish in NY. Silver seems exceptionally buoyant lately and has tended to lead gold. The alleged illegal activity of the U.S. Mint by rationing 1 oz. Silver Eagle coins may have something to do with its recent strength...

"The law is clear that the silver coins must be supplied to the US public in "quantities sufficient to meet public demand" EVEN IF it means the US Mint drives up the price of silver bullion on the open market in order to obtain the silver needed to produce the US Silver Eagles. That rise in price should, theoretically, decrease the current voracious demand for US Silver Eagles and allow for the true price discovery of silver bullion. That's how our freely traded markets are supposed to function in order to determine the “fair market value” of any asset.

Unfortunately, the rationing of Silver Eagle coins greatly distort the fair market value of both the coins as well as the silver bullion used to make them. By rationing the coins, the US Treasury and US Mint are artificially suppressing the demand for silver bullion thus creating artificial downward pricing pressure on silver. The size of this artificial price/demand loss is unknown BUT given that the 1oz US Silver Eagle is by far the most popular silver coin in the world, I would suggest that the artificial suppression is significant. For example, when the Silver Eagle rationing program started in mid-March 2008, the price of silver bullion immediately dropped from $21/oz to $17/oz thus trimming 20% off its fair market value in only 4 days. Clearly the fair market value is being artificially distorted. As stated in section (f) above, the public is entitled to purchase US Silver Eagle coins at the "market value of [silver] bullion" plus costs associated with production. Currently, that is not the case. I expect you to end the rationing program immediately and fulfill your legal obligation to the people of the United States of America."

http://tinyurl.com/5gkpr7

Alrighty...out of ROM.
Small bite of shadow of uncertainty...QID.

shark- it's not passing the google test, man..

I know...this material isn't on google...it's too good for the GOOG..It comes from an expensive book about the stock market available from Traders Library.

correct response wins a copy?

or an autographed copy?

Jeff Cooper (excellent trader) was saying yesterday that gold is in a power surge formation - three lower highs (or higher lows). The expected surge would be down.

A prize from Bill.

hey 2nd you back in dcr or what?

Re. Euro and Bonds. It seems that now everyone has jumped on the short bond band wagon, common sense warns that if everyone is on the same side of a trade it is not possible to make money (as we discussed last weekend). And there is a Euro connection to this (Mauldin last week). Since the advent of the Euro some European countries can no longer print money at will. They could print local currency, but cannot print Euros. As a result, their deficits are ballooning out of control. In fact, countries may go bust because they issued debt in Euros, which they cannot print. For example, France's debt to GDP ratio has moved from 35% in Francs to 70% in Euros. These deficits are getting larger. Obviously this situation cannot last forever and something will break. This has also caused bigger spreads between the strong countries, such as Germany, and the not so strong such as France or Poland, causing all kinds of problems for the banks and puts pressure on their balance sheets. The debt of these countries used to be top notch on the assumption that... countries did not go bankrupt. This top notch rating is no more. So the big problem is for banks that invested in this debt, these loans were not marked to market. Something we have already seen across the pond.

These problems with the Euro may cause another flight to safety (and bonds?). So far the ECB has firmly insisted that the rampant inflation is one of its top priorities (yet has done nothing for over a year). If the politicians have their way, raising rates will not happen. The financial and liquidity crisis that affected the US may only starting in Europe, this time the problem is also caused by governments whose debts can no longer be considered at book value. Those shorting bonds should take this into consideration.

shark- not today, man...it'd be too easy to end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory..;)

another great expression...

Craig,

It's interesting that you anticipated your later activities as a trader by learning a "Ventures" tune on the guitar.

The first tune I learned on the bass (Big ol' Fender Precision. Wish it was still there, leaning on its stand in the corner.) was "Why don't we do it in the road". Also a precursor of my trading activities. :^)

Thanks again, everyone, for helping me learn how to move my trading out of the heavy traffic and into the fast lane.

Took profits on TBT for now.

I have to ask though....besides simple price action, what is the impetus for taking the other side of short bonds? Besides the flight to safety, does anyone think we'll see rate cuts with Ben trying to jawbone $usd?

Anyone care to comment?
Is this an example of a pennant or bull flag forming since May 12th on this chart of Phoscan- FOS.V?
See.....
Tiny url leads to ImageShack capture of StockCharts graph.
http://tiny.cc/VmqDs

Thanks in advance

Oh yeah....Gray....
Looked at that chart last night.
Kinda in-between...but the moving averages are strong.

Maybe look at it if it comes back to the 50DMA?

Each time it reaches for the 50 dma it looks like it bounces off nicely. It's not quit to it which is what makes me say it's in between.

It looks like it could get back to (from memory) 2.40 from 2.90...I think that's what I saw.
You'll know better than I.

BTW...the trendline looks like it goes back to the last touck of the 50DMA. I didn't run it on my chart program so I didn't actually draw a trendline, but you can see it. Strong up trend.

Thanks Craig, you are confirming what I an beginning to see. I would rather have it ready to pop right now so I could jump in and be a hero (at least in my own small universe) but, I don't think its ready yet. So now I have to get frosty in my decision making and decide to sell as it trends down or hold and hope.
Peace from Whidbey
Thanks to Bill and all who post

I think the moving averages are in your favor. If it goes down it won't be as a trend, but as a correction to the 50 DMA. Your trend is up! Depends if you can take that .50 down to the 50 DMA and still be comfortable....enough to add there and stop out if it breaks the MA.

Corn futures are being reported up on Bloomberg...Jim Rogers thinks that is a harbinger for commodities.

Craig

Planting season for corn delayed in a lot of areas due to weather--cool weather in Mar, lots of rain in Midwest Apr-May. Haven't seen a recent chart, but about 10 days ago figures showed only 51% of crop planted vs. average around 70-75% for that time of year. Seems like more rain since then. Weekend forecast also looks like some rain.

Recall reading soybean growing time a little shorter than corn so some farmers have the option of planting that in lieu of corn, which may also affect price.

Norton: Now that I learned surf music I need to stop being a goofy-footed hoedad.

Don't want to be out of Gold with another round of bank writeoffs coming. Weekly full STO show a bottom is in. Same with HUI.

Adding QID REW SKF SMN FXP. Doubling DIA puts. May add to DGP.

Rumor is Lehman secures $5.5B of equity at $25.50 per share.

LOL Seamus. Was just commenting to my wife last night how this was the warmest February we've had in a while..... I'd be surprised if we see local corn this year.

Speaking of wet weather, listened to the earnings conference call on LAYN (provides drilling and construction services and related products in two principal markets: water infrastructure and mineral exploration, as well as being a producer of unconventional natural gas) International company, overseas doing very well.

Backlog especially in U.S. where weather in Midwest(rain) and West (snow) affected (delayed) some projects. Yet they still beat expectations and the numbers looked good.

Posted on skype went long two days ago when initial reaction looked overdone. Looking as a swing trade. It does bounce around.

Company site should have a webcast of call. Please doydd.

"snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" - great quote. who was that who said it yesterday on CNBC? i thought that was a great line.

So what does the U.S. Agriculture Secretary have to say about rising food prices...

"We are anticipating this year an over 40 percent increase in food price inflation globally, 43 percent approximately. Of that we can identify two to three percent of that price increase that is driven by biofuels. A majority, of course, is energy and the second largest piece or about equal piece is the increase in consumption around the world, which is using up the production stocks, he said."

http://tinyurl.com/4af9ge

Out of 500 of the DIA CALL JUN 130 ($.11 bought today) sold $.16 (now $.18+) always too soon....

ALOHA!!

As you guys know I do not day trade. I buy mainly juniors, currencies and of course gold and silver, but I do own commodity related stocks like XOM, CVX(energy) and ESEA(shipping). I mainly will announce trades when I buy on dips and I do not offer daily updates on the share price movements or news.

Even during this Gold correction and US PESO rally my YTD ANTI US PESO portfolio is up 30.9% mainly on a few stock moves and gold and silver and currencies like the Swiss, Aussies, the Canuck. Best stock plays for me have been GIX, LYM/LLC, SLR, FMG and ESEA.

Some stocks I own have gone down or moderated like XOM, CVX, ECU, PMV, MOR and CNU mainly. I am now close to break even with ECU and PMV. I have a 60% loss with CNU, but CNU is not my biggest PESO position ... Hummmm???

Some "bread and butter" stocks I do not trade at all like XOM, CVX and ESEA. If anything I only buy on dips to mainly hold dividend income.

The winners outweigh the losers and once the junior market turns around and the US PESO games end I would not be surprised to see 50%+ quarterly gains!

Now let me say some words on the backside of my ANTI US PESO portfolio that hardly anyone here adresses yet will ultimately cause many here to abandon trading due to attrition ... DEBT and DOWNSIZING. I have no margin and no mortgage debt. I live very frugally and as I have mentioned before here many times my wife and I have a bedroom 10ft x 12ft and our house is around 1,200sq ft. We have no HUMMERS or HARLEYS or pools the size of the Caesar's Palace. We have no extravagant wardrobes and mainly wear shorts and t-shirts year round. We NEVER eat out or go to the movies and we hardly ever travel off the island. Needless to say I believe in living small! I only wish my government would adopt such a strategy of living "small" and "downsizing" and abandon this quest for the BIG EMPIRE. Trading success is only "part" of the equation for financial survival.

Shark:
Author initials O.V. and G.C.?

Title contains references to something that means something like "War-Proven Methods?"

Just guessing. I'd like a gift from Bill.

N2son

You mentioned a new Schwab Int'l equity fund recently (end of May?).

FWIW, Are you aware they also have a hedged equity fund based on their rating system--SWHEX (select) and SWHIX (investor shares)?

(No positions)

ALOHA !!

Oh yeah ... My first guitar songs I learned was House Of The Rising Sun, Norwegian Wood, and almost all of the songs off Dylan's HWY 61 REVISITED album! HA ... good times the 60's and 70's ... strange days back then when you think of times now and how stiff and staid and zombied-out the masses are! back then when I went to high school I didn't know from one day to the next if there would be an anti-War riot at the college next door! Every day was filled with the excitement of making the World change to a better place without War ... Where have our 60's souls gone? I guess we spent them all at the mall! Retail anesthia!

Kaimu, from Bill today on the USD:

"Today it’s still down almost -15%, and is called the US Peso, which is insulting to the peso."

http://tinyurl.com/43lsp7 (mentioned before). I am sure there are many readers from those countries here :-)

Sorry i just passed out for an hour. Yeah Mike, but that's not fair, I told you this already.

Auwe Kaimu!
You just threw me into a fit of nostalgia. When I was young and didn't know better, my father used to take me to anti-war rallies and marches in DC and Philadelphia. We were distrustful of authority, Martin Luther King was marching, Kids were being shot at Kent state. Back then, we suffered violence and even death for our beliefs in social equity.

Debt was really a 4 letter word back then. We were taught to avoid debt at all costs. Nowadays I see families celebrating their kids' first credit cards and needing instant gratification at any costs.

Ron

Shark,
No, you didn't.

I wouldn't cheat like that.

I just searched my mail and "shadow of uncertainty" yields zero hits.

We are going higher towards year end.

Don't outguess the fed. The fed is telling us the economy will get better 2nd half. The fed has indicated that they will support the dollar. The fed made no mention that they are killing the market. Trust me, when Bernanke decides to kill the market he will let us know. He is the most transparent fed chairman we've ever had. When the fed wants to kill the market, they will raise interest rates and he'll keep on raising it until the market dies. The initial rate increases you will continue to see the market going higher for a few more years until the fed finally gets very aggressive with the rate increase and eventually chokeholds the market for the fall.

Understand where we are now. Many bears are still trying to drive the market down, to keep on fighting the fed. The fed is essentially saying they are supporting the market and economy by having lowered interest rates so many times and very aggressively since the 2nd half of last year. So this process is the inverse of killing the market. Don't fight the fed. A huge bull market is coming.

ALOHA !!

Si02 ... Please with the PESO "politically correct" protest. It is a word that denotes Third World not First World much less Sovereign Credit Ratings of AAA ... That is all! Last I looked Mexico Sovereign Credit Rating was not AAA! I know for sure that the USSA is falling from First World status, so where does that leave the US money? All I mean is the US Dollar is more like a PESO. Is everyone's psyches here so delicate that we can't even use the word PESO now?

Should I not use USSA either? Or will that offend the Russians? What's next?

Shark,
Don't worry about it.

But I'd be happy to "show my work" if you want to know how I found it.

Mr Bean: What are you smokin'?

Anyone know why there was a big jump in the carry trade today?

http://tinyurl.com/2c86lw

2nd,

Is the bearishness in DCR enticing you?

ALOHA !!

rgr ... I can only assume that the vast majority of Americans see that there are no "real" issues worth fighting for and prefer the comfort of their flat screen, a beer and the sofa!

That surely is a sign of a decaying Empire ...

shark- still dealing with the Tao parable...i said i really believed it, and i should have trusted karma over the enticement of weakness...

...guess i should be thankful i unloaded the DUG position yesterday...if i had the entire DUG/SMN/QID position on today it would feel more like a Tao slap...

1.19 is not going to do it today...0.94 would do it...at 0.94 the oil bears will have capitulated...

I'm smelling a potential good deal on LLL. Historically, it has relatively short and sharp downtrends within it's general upward trend. It's possible that the prevailing economic conditions are somehow driving this drop differently than we've seen before, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

Currently long the following:

TRE
CRESY
DNA
CEF
IBB
LLY
RIG
MSFT
SLB
SWC
RJA
GBX

Many of these are oversold and reasonable buys.

Dumbass has a question: Why's the Dow still up so much with oil rallying over 4 clams?

I took a shot at 1.27 (I know it sounds dumb but at the time it made sense) and stopped out at 1.24

Now I don't know what the bejeezers to do, but I would load the boat in the .90's

last time 95 centavos turned out to be one heck of a buy

ABK MBI cut to AA.

Oils up over 5 bucks...Did we attack IRAN and nobody told me?

The regional banks like WM and Keycorp are really screwed. They could barely stay positive in today's tape and now lost the battle.

beanieville........please do tell us what sectors will be leading in this next phase of the bull market?

Everyone here loves a good logical debate but I think we'd appreciate some substance. The fact that the Fed is telling us everything is peachy is hardly an argument.

So any call on what companies, sectors, industries may lead this next bull run?

volume of 50 contracts today on the LEH july 2.50 puts..open interest 3586...

Kaimu:

I also live very frugally, rent a house with housemates, no debt of any kind, rarely go out to eat, etc. When I still lived in Alaska (up to late 2006) I was getting by on about $12k/year. And I was eating like a king...fresh salmon, trout, halibut, blueberries, currants, moose, caribou, morell mushrooms, all free for the taking with a little skill and free time.

But I do have a Harley! A 1963 panhead that was my undergrad graduation gift from my uncle. He rode it for about 15 years. I have pics of me as a 5yr old on the back of that bike, pics of me helping my uncle rebuild the engine in the living room (circa early 70s, avocado green, harvest gold, and autumn orange appliances and shag carpet, along with bad wood paneling in the duplex we shared at the time!) I know you were aiming that comment at the HELOC bandits who levered up the house to get the boat, jet ski, harley, and hummer.

The second happiest day of my life was when I paid off my last remaining debt (college loans). That was the point I felt truely "free".

Looks like GFI is turning the corner today. With more downside in gold a real possibility, and this noisy market I'll manage the stop on this one a little more actively than normal. Would have liked to sell some $12 puts as well, but timing didn't work out for me.

2nd I think we need to wonder if we want this at any price

SMN- if it wasn't for the daily resets, i would say we see the fifties within the next 6 months...with the resets, wth really knows...

shark- is the CT scenario playing out?

DUG-> back to 20% allocation @ 28.46...

shark- DUG is the safer play...

How am I gonna afford gas for my moped?

even DAL/NWA/UAUA dropping to more reasonable altitudes...

I just heard yesterday that the smart money works at the close, not the open, so you may want to check the Lehman put action then.

burnt orange appliances..now that takes me right back...

Bean makes a reasonable point, “Don't fight the fed.” I do not know if we will have a huge bull market, but a rising market is probable base on liquidity juicing. The hypotheses is rather simple, when money is easy, the stock market goes up.

Billy, why try to figure out what the new leading sectors will be and just try to get in gear with the current leading sectors. The leading sectors are energy, coal, steel, food and commodities. I think you know what the weak sectors are. Your insurance position is gold.

All this liquidity has to go somewhere and it’s going to the leading sectors.

That being said, I trade short-term and opportunistically. I tend to buy strong sectors on pullbacks, or buy down stocks whose trend lines are being broken to the upside and sometimes I will buy breakouts an eclectic approach to the market that works for me.

Beanie's just reproducing a blog post of his to try to drive traffic to his blog. Compare his 'analysis' with Bill's.

bull trap alert? honestly, i think anyone going long here is in for some serious discomfort...JMHO...

in dcr at 1.13 with a prayer

shark- dcr casts a pretty long shadow...good luck...

it will either work or it wont..willing to hold this overnight...it's not an enormous size.

and of course as always my stoperoonie is in place

guess what else casts a long shadow.....?

Someone posted this here, I forget who:

"Its not the news that counts: It's how the markets react to the news!!!!!"

The S&P cash is bouncing of the 50 dma with this reaction being fully contained by the 89 dma.

What's this mean?

beanievile,

I appreciate your optimism.... Help me or help us understand how and why/how we will have "A huge bull market is coming".

oh by the way i can agree to disagree with you about not fighting the fed. however sometimes we all can be monday morning quarterbacks or armchair quarterbacks - our ideas are thoughtful but we would probably never truly understand the effects if they were implimented and came into play.

Please explain how or why....

Korvus,

L3 Comm or Lulemon? :)

Everybody into financials... there's a bull market a'comin'

I should have learned from Barrick that you don't hedge. My GE position is recovering. Should have doubled down.

Anybody for Canadian banks? CAD is tanking (or USD recovering) over the last few days.

twilight zone?
**theme song playing**
We are in a time when the whole breadth of the market up.... oil up, commidities up, dollar down and gold down....

how is this possible and where is the money coming from?

I am starting to think that the way to live would be with the people who were just discovered in the amazon... only corruption would be from the witch doctor.

Bull Hunter,

being practical one, want to illustrate the concept we discussed yesterday :)

Take a look at QTWW overnihgt from Jun 2 to 3; SQNM, VVUS and ZIXI from yesterday to today; finally, have a look at IVAN as of now and let's see how it plays out tomorrow.

Shark: A guess - that wouldn't be "LESSONS", would it?
Aurator: Bit a little GLW anyway, sitting at ~ 50%PM related portfolio. Holding cause it will work out nicely.
Kaimu: I'm also debt-free, and live like a church mouse but not in a tropical paradise. Here, we wear medium jackets and heat our houses about 6 mos./yr.

Vad just listed five gangbuster stocks. No bear action in these puppies.

Telestar,

not to confuse anyone... we talked about criteria I use for overnight holdings. Being mostly an intraday trader, I keep those fairly strict :)

I have some longs I want to get rid of, but will hold off until tomorrow mornin'. Since Europe closed mixed to lower, I suspect they will want to catch up tomorrow morning, giving a boost to US futures and resulting in a higher US open. Probably get a better price then. Have'nt heard any explanation on today's bizzaro action with oil up 5%, but then again, it not like rational investors are running the show any longer...

Vad, thanks for the clarification, but for everyone of those stocks except ZIXI each one has one of the following charactristics:

QTWW, broke the downtrend line and bottomed in JAN

SQNM, broke the downtrend line and bottomed in APR

VVUS, breakout @ 6.5

IVAN, broke the downtrend line and bottomed in FEB and breakout @ 2.45 ish

All winning characteristic.

XLF is testing 24.6 for like the fifth time today. it's looking like it's running out of gas again.

Looking at daily, all true Telestar... I just wanted to provide context to avoid any wrong interpretation. In trading world, better be careful naming symbols lest I cause harm by misinterpretation :)

Saudi parliment order the cut the oil production. So I heard.

thinking abou loading up on smn

SMN, on the basis of what, breaking out to new lows?

If Pres. McCain reinstitutes the draft, people will be off of the couch, out of the mall and into the streets once again!

If not, America will remain fat, dumb and happy ...

Wavesmash,

L-3 Communications -- I often forget that the readership here is only about two-thirds US. :)

Of course, it looks like they've both had a recent drop, but I know nothing about Lululemon so I can't comment there.

Jeff

Prieur

Great Post....1.243 billion Zimbabwe dollars for diner for one. Incredible. This is what happens when corrupt politicians rule. Considering the 61 trillion plus US debt, this is why Kaimu is constantly railing against fiat currency.

Anyone wondering what hyperinflation looks like here's a look. Talk about loping off a few zeros on your currency....wow !

Zimbabwean SuperMax Hyperinflation.

USD Zimbabwe Dollar

6/1/03 1 = 814
2/28/04 3,990
8/03/05 101,347
8/3/06 250
9/11/07 253
9/12/07 30,625
5/9/08 30.002
5/10/08 190,000,000
5/26/08 413,192,290
5/27/08 414
6/5/08 591

historical data from Oanda.com

Remember....the Baby Boomers were in the streets.....the largest mass of youth possible, and no worries about funds. We all used the thumb and crash pads.

Now we're fity-somethings and we have responsibilities...read "we're check mailers".

We also were into the environment and overpopulation so our "boom" didn't replace our numbers. Add that to no draft and there doesn't seem to be a political backlash. The problem with that plan is EVERYONE notices what it costs to have a war without a draft. Once they feel their wallets under attack the "check mailers" come under pressure and we'll head to the streets...and polls. It just takes longer for the less than aware to notice.

Does anyone recall the first subject of Obama's nomination acceptance speach?

Kaimu: On US PESO - We realize you're serious about what's happening to USSR currency. The objection is actually a joke. i.e. - comparing the Dollar to PESO really might in the future (assuming the Dollar drops below the PESO) be insulting ...

ALOHA !!

astral25 ... Thats what I mean when I say that, "Many fortunes will be lost trading the markets successfully"! There are people who trade the Zimbabwe stock market(ZSE) successfully like there were during the Weimar Republic, but when a loaf of bread is $1.5milZWE who has won?

I have posted this before and it expalins "beanville" and his/her post today about the US markets going up! Thats where the money spigot is but it does not have anything to do with the power of the US Economy or our "growth rate"! It has more to do with a failed fiat monetary system and elected leaders who will not correct their past multiple decades of fiscal abuses helped along by the all too accomodating US FED policy, which Bill spoke to with regards to Goldman Sachs owning the US Treasury! Where else would the billions of dollars of monetary injections go to as long as Goldman Sachs owns the US Treasury? Its just the Rothschild's Playbook at work in the USA!!!

There is but one BIG question mark for the DOW and the "consumer/interest rate based" companies that proliferate ... what about the derivatives?

Please read this link to explain why the Zimbabwe stock market is so successful and you will get an insight into where the DOW is headed over the long run as the US government spends its way out of Iraq and lousy GDP growth and job losses and entitlements. Who isn't getting paid by the US government please raise your hand?

Link: http://tinyurl.com/42vqdo

Crude is flying today, especially after the large inventory builds yesterday. The last time crude ramped with such force the USD got pulverized within days. We shall see this time.

ATTN Kaimu

Thanks for sharing the info on the Perth Mint.
Are you considering a dealership?

Your reminders of our root problems all falling back to fiat money are well appreciated.The Fed needs to go away and the Gambino Sachs control of world banking needs to be exposed.(as Bill mentioned)

SiO2 discussed the problems in Euroland today...
The ECB has exhibited restraint in the last few years but there are problems ahead. It is unknown how they will deal them while rapidly adding new members to their alliance. Members are still soverign countries and only bound by a currency agreement. They are not bound together by a constitution. Yet.

As the political debate is about to heat up, let's see how much time the candidates spend on fiat currency creation and the insolvency of our country. Congress is so pathetic and disgusting, I can't bear to watch more than a few minutes of CSpan... we need term limits now more than ever.

Here's one of Congress's latest:

Leave the USA, Pay an "Exit Tax"

Congress has now once again amended these "anti-expatriation" provisions in a new bill. Both houses approved the bill unanimously, and sent it to President Bush for his signature.

The primary purpose of the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 is to provide a range of tax breaks for veterans. But the law also imposes the first-ever "exit tax" on even moderately wealthy expatriates.

Details of the bill @

http://www.sovereignsociety.com/offshore2668.html

PIGS—(Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) versus BRIC (Brazil,Russia,....)
The ECB may worry less about politics than the Fed, since its independence is enshrined in the Maastricht treaty. But if the social costs of capping inflation rise, the ECB will have an equally hard time making the case for price stability.
http://tinyurl.com/6e99o6

Minera Andes - MAI

US banker/blogger based in Lima tells more about why he likes MAI, of which McEwan owns a sizeable piece.

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/

He expects Hochschild to buy MAI out of one project, which will finance development of another.

I have no position in MAI.

Reloaded the DIA puts for June and July 100%.
Reloaded DCP.

Will be either very happy or rather miffed over the next few days. There are lots of things going wrong, on lots of fronts. I just don't see the Dow moving much higher.

Minera Andes - MNEAF

Sold recently because it was more dead money.

Take a look at this fancy crowd:

Craig J. Nelsen
President, CEO, and Director

Currently serves as the Chairman and a Director of Metallica Resources Inc. (since 1994).

Mr. Nelsen served as the Executive Vice-President, Exploration, for Gold Fields Limited (from 1999 to June 2007)


Peter D. Barnes
Director

The founder, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (from 2004 to 2006) of Silver Wheaton Corp.

Mr. Barnes was previously Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer of Goldcorp Inc. (from 2005 to 2006) and Chief Financial Officer (from 2003 to 2005) of Wheaton River Minerals Inc., which merged with Goldcorp Inc.

Robert Cross
Director
Chairman and a Director of Bankers Petroleum Ltd. (since 2004), a public company listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. He was the Chairman and a Director of Northern Orion Resources Inc. (from 2001 to 2007), prior to it being acquired by Yamana Gold Inc.

Advisory board:
R. Edward Flood
Mr. Flood is Managing Director, Investment Banking, for Haywood Securities (UK) Ltd., a subsidiary of one of Canada's leading independent investment dealers. He served as Deputy Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (1999-2007)

And finally

Pierre Lassonde - no comments!

All the same - Avanti Mining Inc $0.28 CAD

ALOHA !!

Chickenpookie posted ... "... about what's happening to USSR currency."

Actually I am not concerned about the Ruble at all. I am more concerned about the Russian people than I am about Putin or the Ruble!

"The objection is actually a joke. i.e...."

So in your mind its all a JOKE, eh? And Bill Cara and Si02 have both communicated this to you?

Anyone else seen this article yet?

Broadcom co-founder faces drug, securities charges

http://tinyurl.com/5hjcd2

"Broadcom Corp. co-founder Henry T. Nicholas III was in custody Thursday on charges that he slipped ecstasy into the drinks of technology executives, maintained a warehouse to store cocaine and tried to conceal his illegal conduct with bribes and death threats."

Jim Sinclair sees it like I do in June 5 commentary:

http://www.jsmineset.com/

ALOHA !!

Has anyone here ever been "homeless"? For a week or a month or a year or ten years?

I was homeless for about four months back in 1974 when I was in my 20's. I lived out of my VW bug and camped out on beaches, mostly at Doheny State Beach in California.

When I look back at it I really didn't mind too much.

What about "unemployed"? Anyone here ever been "unemployed" to the point where you get unemployment checks?

I was unemployed for about two months back in 1986 and I collected unemployment checks for one month. The rest of my working life I have been employed!

Being unemployed to me was worse than being homeless! I have never really ever cared much about my housing ... my crib ... my digs! I have lived in some real "rat traps" before! Many of my close friends can attest to that ...

My email has this quote
"The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.”

2nd
what happen? oil up airline up
look like market is crazy?
got in EXP/DUG and some oex july 640 put

nor EXP but FXP

vinod- that's right...the market is making fools of us all...i don't mind, really-> i think to a large extent that's how opportunities arise...(i will admit to using much stronger language than you did scrolling through the the airline tickers)...

Kaimu,

I had a pretty good thing going back in the '90's I was living with my parents. I would have these really daff telemarking jobs from which I would, predictably be FIRED not for cause. I would then receive state unemployment checks, usually for the full term allowable by law. I didn't really keep count, but between '90 and 2002 I think, including presedential extentions which I received from both Bush's and Bill Clinton I was on state unemployment....maybe 8 or 9 times:)

it's spelled pres-i-dential

Ratings for sale - and the beat goes on. NY's Cuomo spins a solution:

"New York sets rating agency fee reforms"

http://tinyurl.com/6ew8kk

Kaimu,
I have been working in a beach front million+ dollar home for the last two days on Beach Road in sight of Doheny and next to "hole in the fence".

Viso - Avanti Mining

thanks for mentioning this. A most interessting biz model as well:

- buying streams of moly from copper producers (who in fact are the largest moly producers)a la Silver Wheaton !

- acquisitions of moly juniors and, they suggest, a "rollup"

- other opportunistic moves.

Sounds as if this crowd could make something out of a biz model that flexible. AND they listed (inexpensively)on CNQ, whose stocks don't even appear on bigcharts, or stockcharts.(check stockhouse.ca) Maybe it's their way of saying that WE don't have to impress anyone!

Went public at .40, and rose, then fell to .28. So, the big boys are underwater, except for their warrants, and who knows what other insider perks ...

This is worth more study ! - Jock

bigpicture.com flags a review of a new book on the Fed:

Some of the conflict was baked into the Fed cake from the beginning. Commercial bankers elect two-thirds of the directors at the Fed banks, as required by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The upshot?

``The Fed is regulating the very people charged with regulating it,'' Auerbach writes.

kaimu- hard to compare being homeless/unemployed by choice (as many of us were in the 70s) to being homeless/unemployed by circumstance...

speaking of which, what happens if the employment numbers tomorrow disappoint?

"what happens if the employment numbers tomorrow disappoint?"

Excellent analysis here:
http://tinyurl.com/56w34z

Kaimu - My feeling is perhaps you're not comprehending how the comparison of US dollar to PESO might be considered insulting to the PESO. When the dollar tanks, then the comparison could be considered insulting to the PESO, as the PESO would be the preferable currency.

This is my interpretation of Bill's comment, without explanation from Bill or Silicon Dioxide.

BTW - I've been unemployed - for about a day. Never homeless though.

2nd,

The market goes down, (i mean up). Who knows how it will be spun.

my bet is the bulls will have another day in the black and then back to 12000 give or take until earnings and the effects of the pity $600 stimulus checks go straight back to either credit card interest or for imported goods and services.

Some Thursday night considerations--not always what you expect.

•Decline in Household Net Worth Raises Many Questions

•Household Borrowing Shows Sharp Downward Trend

•Jobless Claims - Upward Trend Remains in Place

•European Central Bank Sounds Hawkish Tone at Its Ten-Year Anniversary

http://tinyurl.com/655xqq

kaimu...just a short story of mine about being unemployed.
Unemployed, married with 3 small children, renting an uninsulated farmhouse in northern illinois. In laws came for Christmas holidays. I had forgotten to check the oil tanks- was out of heating oil, drove a pickup to town to buy heating oil from dealer who opened the store, paid cash and I drove on icy roads with 10 or so 5 gallon buckets (drywall mud buckets used to be free on the jobsite) in the back of the truck. My father in law held the funnel while I poured heating oil into the infill spout.
Tough times pass. If I lose the job I now have, I will find other work to pay my bills. But, first and foremost it is a blow to your self esteem. And some just cant continue when it happens over and over.
Peace from North Puget Sound

Not trying to offend anyone (I had my own share of misery) but I couldn't resist associating today's discussion with Monty Python "Four Yorkshiremen" ;-)
http://tinyurl.com/cdhw

Thanks OC, my wife wonders what the heck I'm laughing at

OT: Hendrix at Woodstock

http://tinyurl.com/4d6rhy

Kaimu:

I have been unemployed 5 times, twice collecting unemployment checks.

I have been down to my last 100.00 twice in my life and at other times doing better than average. I don't care about money, never truly have, I work enough to cover bills and family needs as they might happen. The rest covers itself. Work is more of an excuse to go out and help others hidden in the ranks while getting paid to do so.

From first hand experience I know the corruption the runs the current system and purposely walked away from that when I was 18. I have witnessed both extremes of our culture, having been on the streets helping homeless and being in the homes of the richest. Literally seen those in power break the most serious laws and then bending the system to their own rules, while the poorest get kicked to death by police for only falling down at the wrong spot...This is what I have lived, not something read or told by others.

It sucks being poor and without money. The system neither works nor is kind. It could be worse and it could be better. But it is, what it is so I work with what I am in it. It's not about improving the system, it's about improving ourselves. A fine distinction, but a very important one, since the only difference in the end that lasts is within our expression to be human: how to experience life working within kindness.

Preaching, social reform, hot air, wishes, belief ... none of those truly work.

Note faith does work, but belief is different than faith: faith is acceptance of life vs belief which is wishing for it to be a certain way... a very fine but dangerous distinction in the end.

The reason I rambled this far is for this reason: when a person gets unemployed enough: they lose faith in themselves: that is a dangerous path as it leads to blind belief and wishes which often end in a very lonely place in the gutter for too many people.

Sympathize with the others, as I've been crushed into a pinpoint of neutrons during my life, several times.

~~~

Long ago I was told the ideal broker would have the following traits:

Gray hair to give him that distinguished look.

Hemorrhoids to provide that concerned look.

After the amount of Jalapeños we killed tonight, thinking of circulating some resumes.

Clip: "Thursday's rally had the stench of Plunge Protection Team intervention, which means hyperinflation and a rising cost of living to Main Street, possessing all the trademark signs we look for in intervention rallies. Up sharply from the open, out of the blue, on the same day bad news was scheduled to come out. What bad news you say? Yes, the bad news was held in check by the financial media, but an event we have been warning about for months which could be catastrophic for markets happened Thursday. S&P downgraded bond insurers AMBAC and MBIA. These insurers are no longer AAA rated. What does this mean? It means that trillions of bonds insured by these companies, that relied upon the AAA rating of these companies for their own AAA rating, including municipal bonds, are now worth far less than they were yesterday. That means banks, insurance companies, and other major financial institutions have to write these bonds already in their portfolios down to new lower market values, jeopardizing regulatory capital levels, impeding allowable lending limits. This means the bonds in their portfolios are now less liquid than yesterday. This means it will be incredibly difficult for many municipalities to issue new bonds to raise capital. This means access to loans will be constrained. This is a disaster. The Plunge Protection Team knew this, so made sure it did a slight of hand, taking away the focus, driving stocks higher at the open, handing the baton to shorts forced to cover, to continue the rally deep into the day. It is all a farce of course. This patient has cancer and the doctor is not going to let him know. Thursday's huge stock rally came on a day when oil rose 6 bucks, the Dollar fell half a buck, and home foreclosures hit a record high, as if those were good things. Think about that.
...
Sometimes these intervention rallies scare the shorts into generating a multi-session rally. This may be a good time to stand aside until the dust clears. Technically, there is some room for more upside short-term. ..." McHugh

http://tinyurl.com/52p77m

Aurator: news recently over the wires - early hours US time - fits your posting:

National City Is Under U.S. Scrutiny
Memorandum Agreement With Regulators
Effectively Puts Banking Unit on Probation
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121271764588650947.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

SEC, Justice Scrutinize
AIG on Swaps Accounting
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121271786552550939.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

UBS, Credit Suisse cut to sell at Societe Generale

Standard Life cut to sell at Deutsche Bank

Perhaps Friday is the day the banks come clean - seems an awful lot 'down' news on financials and the day hasn't started.

"From The TimesJune 6, 2008

UK House Prices have fallen twice as fast in the past five months as in the same period in 1992, during the most recent property crash, when they fell by only 3.3 per cent, based on Halifax figures. The decline in prices this year is the biggest five-month fall since records began in 1991. If the deterioration in house prices continues at its present pace, the value of a home will slump by more in six months this year than in the whole of 1992, when prices fell by a total of 7.2 per cent. Some economists forecast that prices could fall by up to 12 per cent this year, followed by further declines next year."

Expect similar news from Australia during this quarter - I guess with all this good news around its not surprising that the market is heading higher...

OC its one of Monty Pythons most famous sketches,I like it of course as I am a Yorkshireman after all:)

Good morning guys,

SO you know I helod DCR overnight and got my hot dog scorched for it. Well I'm here to tell you I don't mind. I'd prefer that it didn't happen but I will sell the position, take my loss and move on. And bear this in mind...There's a very strong element of Murphy's Law in this thing. If you find 3 stocks and buy 2 it'll be the 3rd that goes up. Make no mistake about it...Had I NOT bought DCR yesterday and merely watchedit, It would have gone up a lot yesterday and oil would be DOWN 2 bucks this morning and DCR would be trading in the pre-market over 1.20...Guaranteed.

Re: unemployment...I never felt that being unemployed affected my self esteem. What negatively affecdts MY self esteem is being trapped in a BS job.

And I just sold the crap for a 5 cent per share loss on a mere 500 shares...not even enough to fill up my goshdarn Corolla...Now I'm going back to bed. Adios amigos.