UK Times article on BIS:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4240993.ece

Casey:

Regarding your comment on predictions: I just find the parallels striking-that is considering I first heard about this in the early 90's. Hell, we hadn't even started the dot.bomb boom then.

When I click on Bill's link to the BIS article it takes me to Gmail. bbcmoney's link is fine.

[Bill Cara note: I corrected the link. Thanks.]

Excellent weekend discourse!

nemo, you posted last night:

"I first became aware of these "predictions" back in the early 90's, to which I said, "cool, now give me a beer." (Or was it vodka.) The crisis was to begin in 2007, with a crescendo in 2010 and the denouement in 2012."
I immediately thought of something I read in a Nat'l Geographic mag and at adishakti dot org about the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar on 12-21-2012.
Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But maybe these Mayans were on to something... ;^)

peace from SoFla

Stu

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

ERTS - to Buy @ Soleil

Downgrade:

WFMI - to Neutral @ UBS

--------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Stu:

That Mayan calendar stuff is just another parallel I heard about a couple of years ago. I'm no 7th Day Aventist-I just find it interesting that these metaphysical pronouncements seem to have some real world parallels. Time to get out the loin cloth. I live up north. Gotta' find a couple of bears so I can make a fur coat.

Greetings from Slovenia!

Renewed fears of inflation and slower growth caused by record energy costs played havoc with global stock markets last week, resulting in the Dow Jones Industrial Average being on track to record its worst June since the Great Depression. As stocks suffered, gold bullion surged and government bond yields dropped due to safe-haven buying.

Read all about this in my weekly review, highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week.

Here is the link to the “Words from the Wise”: http://tinyurl.com/4q4etf

A nasty week, but it’s best to remain cool and collected about these markets, and not take unnecessary risks in order to keep head above (the very murky) water.

What say you?

Hi Bill,I was talking to Dennis Gartman last week, and interviewed him about the markets...:)
http://wallastoninvestments.com/

I vote Casey's of 1:19 AM the best over-weekend post.

"Put predictions to the side and instead work towards what you would wish to happen" reminds me of oldie but goodie - "It's better to light up a candle than to curse the darkness".

nemo

If you would like to hear another line of thinking to your post last night let me know. I can either email it to you or post it later tonight when all trading is done.

Daily Options Report
by Adam Warne

this week will not provide a good test of the VIX/VXO and friends. If we rally the slightest, they both likely go into the tank.

Whatever data says, we do likely need a volatility spike to get some sort of meaningful bottom. The pattern in 2008 is that the market declines and volatility goes nowhere for a while, then starts to move and gets everyone bullish too soon, and then finally crests in the mid 30's and teaches everyone that's exactly when to load up long.

So bold prediction here. We either never get close to 35 VIX again, i.e. the market turns before that. Or, we get to 35 VIX and the market gets very ugly first before turning

Good morning to everyone.....great discourse from Friday and the weekend. I was busy getting our house ready for a realtor....yes I'm crazy enough to try and sell in this market....but was able to check the discourse now and then.

During a few minutes of downtime I came accross a show on Mojo HD channel called Bobby G Adventure Capitalist. I've not seen it before, are you familiar with him Bill? Nassau looks like the paradise that everyone says it is. Maybe if I would have sold the house last year I could have taken a vacation there on my huge windfall in profit:)

I found it funny that his company owns Clearly Canadian which is stock I watched for a while. I remember as a kid we had the flavored water in the house all the time. It should be another interesting week. Good trading to all.

vinod,

You bring up an interesting point.

I'm mystified how the market can drop so far, so fast, yet the VIX seems disconnected from the move.

I use the VIX to help determine entry/exit points....at least I used to. Now I'm thinking that everything I know is wrong.

Regards

Dear Vadym:

Not predicting, I just find the parallels striking. Where are you originally from?

Dear Zeto:

I'd love to hear it what's your email, I'll send you mine

With Japanese bonds getting an upgrade from Moody's, how will this impact the carry trade & equity prices in the US?

http://tinyurl.com/phk7d

Bill,
Despite the tax rebate, the ratio of (consumption) of Non-Durable to Durable Goods has continued to rise.
I have been pointing out for over a year, that as increases in food and energy prices took place, the drop in discretionary spending would
affect the economy negatively.

The market is held hostage by oil prices and will move inversely to it.
See
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2008/06/market-has-spoken.html

Quite a weekend discourse . . . wasn't able to due to other issues . . . heading out to PHX tomorrow where a close friend has turned for the worse at the Mayo clinic in Scottsdale. . . not much longer for him to be in this world . . .

Thoughts not really on the markets, but I recall vinod's earlier post about market erosion with a mild VIX. Sense that may happen.

Few munis maturing today, but will leave them in cash for future opportunities. Godd luck out there gang!

UYG @ 20.71...

nemo

Zeto1[at]yahoo[dot]com

jumped back in

PMV: 21,000 shares at .20
How could I not like orchids and gold mixed together

Valgold: 48,000 shares at .11

I feel both Valgold and PMV are at lows, both have strong management buy in to the stock recently. I am long these two

DVAX: 6,000 shares at 1.57

this is a tricky one. I will ride it up a bump, sell it and when goes back down re-buy.

I dont recommend this as a short term, I am also long on this stock. Strong internal ownership, good partnerships and good potential... but its very risky also.

There is a good chance I will miss the bump up guess and the market can keep this one down right now, however, if that happens I will sit quietly and go long then and wait.

My feelings are classic to buy low sell high. Buy the companies I feel are strong in various ways and are at their lows.

Keeping my fingers crossed and forgetting everything now for a week as the market sorts itself out . The craps dice have been thrown (my parents were professional craps gamblers... Hell of a training for a boy taught to play craps by grandpa at 5)

Cara 100 Update (Final):

TGT - Price Target Lowered from $58 to $53 @ UBS

Call me a fool but I added a 3rd truck load of DUG [@ 26.77-26.85]. Brought my cost basis down to 27.30. Will unload the one truck with a trail stop order once it clears 27.5. Then I'll ride the other semi[s] into the sunset [hopefully]. Maybe tomorrow the hedge funds will start taking profits.

Look like money if moving back the other way now.....sell financials/buy commodities

Casey,

I'm already in on Valgold. But I cannot get a quote for PMV on Ameritrade. What is the symbol used in the US markets?

Bull Hunter
Beside VIX I also pay attention and follow BIll's RSI system (rsi7/14/30)

QT, I'm with you. Still in DUG with a 26.77 basis and ready to add on the first breakdown in oil.

BA date of record for the employee stock trust bonus program is today. Could see some continued weakness in the next month or two as the 196,000 people eligible receive and potentially sell the stock.

Seattle Times wrote on this and the Goldman downgrade(after my own comments here, IIRC).

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008017857_boeing26.html

Good trading to all.

You need quite an appetite for risk to bet against higher oil right now. Dennis Gartman was on Bloomberg earlier today and he made the very salient point that we remain in a bull for commodities, and that there's plenty of time to go short once this thing turns around. But for now a short play is not wise.

I agree.

nemo,

xUSSR... Canada is home since 1996

UYG- to 40% at 20.12...

Casey,

I was struck that you bought Valgold. I've been very discouraged by this one after having bought at .26. I was wondering if they were affected by the same problem as KRY and GRZ--permits in Venezuela being revoked. What are you looking for in terms of appreciation potential and timeframe, if you don't mind my asking?

I recall that Kaimu was enthusiastic about PMV but the stock seemed to go nowhere for month after month so I did not buy in. Also I heard recently that there is some kind of moritorium on mining in Ghana.

I would also be interested if anyone could hazard a guess as to why GIX is not increasing with the gold price. Perhaps this is one of those stocks subject to naked short-selling?

Thanks in advance for any response--sometimes I cannot get back to my computer in time to thank people for their responses.

oversold bounces in TSO/VLO/SUN...

Berkshire's class B below $4k.

Vadym. Sorry, should have been more specific...where in the USSR? I assumed it was Russia from your name and grammatical syntax. Would your last name indicate a more western Russian family origin?

Re: PMI Gold

Trading halted pending news . . .

Aucourant: On both Val and PMV I have no time frame, I am totally long on those two. I don't think we will see any action in the short term unless we get some positive news on drilling results.

The thing about Val is it has huge land in Guyana and strong management. It was I think being hyped earlier in the year because of the Venezuela assets and lost value because of that. However, even there from what I heard it has strong relationships in Venezuela and even that can be sorted out in time. However, I am buying because of the Guyana tracts.

Total gamble, hedged slightly since I think each company has decent foresight and patience shown in their actions and statements. Patience is part of the key I am looking for in companies right now. The miners seem to be overly manipulated and these two companies don't seem to be reacting in the same knee jerk reactions, but instead patiently moving ahead in their plans. But that's hard to quantify isn't it? So I look towards management buy in, how they interact with the locals, how they invest in the land... I like these two for those reasons.

I am no expert in this field that's for sure, I am sharing more because its how our community works and between all of our informed guesses its helpful to the navigate this mess.

2nd
finaly this damm maket looks like it is going to closed up today?

HB&B Analists "sell" - HA!!! I thought traders bought dips....

robbie fields: its PMI GOLD CORP, I am not sure of the American symbol since I got it on the canadian side... but looks like its a mute issue now

Jagvocate: do you have a link? looks like the dice are rolling against me...

My father never invested in the market, he felt it was too rigged and craps was the only honestly rigged game in town since you knew precisely how the odds were stacked...

nemo,

I'm not speaking for Vad, but given the political climate in Russia now, does he really need you knowing where his family is over there? For what? To satisfy your curiosity? There are extortionists who would love to know where his family is, and I don't think we ought to press him on specifics, location-wise. What, were you gonna go visit his family? He's the great Russian, from the land of The Romanovs, Lenin, Stalin. They have big bears over there, and lots of nukes pointed at your house. Ok...Go to eastern Poland, go another 5000 miles and head north, it's the third house on the left:)

DUG has been getting support in the 26.40/26.50 range...let's see if it holds today?

To answer my own question :

PMV = PMVGF

vinod- i don't know the answer to your question, but i agree with the "damn market" part of your post...

Sorry shark, Having lived in various places in Europe I have an interest in names and accents. Greifer makes me think it may have originated more towards Germany or the Prussian empire, even though he is "Russian." In accents, it's always interested me how as one moves around geographically, accents move closer or farther to a specific pole. IE: Berlin area as one pole Muscovite as another, and how Ukranian accents blend the two. Berlin and Muenchen and how Schwarzwaelders also blend although they have a sing/song characteristic unlike either. I mean no disrespect, nor agitated prying. I do not expect an answer if anyone is uncomfortable with the question. Again I apologize if I've made either you or Vadym uncomfortable. It was not my intention.

nemo,

it's Ukraine... but at the time of my exit it didn't really matter, breakdown of USSR wasn't cemented yet and it still felt more like single state. Can't say much about earlier origins... unfortunately it wasn't really easy to track one's roots in that country, a lot of families felt it safer to keep genealogy under wraps.

Shark... lol, I suppose if KGB gets interested in me (can't imagine why though) they will have no troubles finding me in, umm, Yellow Pages

Maybe they'll go to your website and learn how to daytrade.

it's down for maintenance at the moment, LOL

Nibbled some more DUG @ 26.52

Man, XLF is really struggling to break yesterday's intra-day low of 20.35. If it manages to climb over that, then maybe this party really gets started...

ALOHA !!

PMI GOLD(PMV) is halted due to news on funding. It will not trade again until the end of the week.

There is no moratorium on mining in Ghana unless you are mining illegally, known in Africa as "glamsey"! But there again enforcement is not easy.

ON KGB
I always laugh about that scene in the movie "Moscow On The Hudson" with Robin Williams where some guy follows him around and then confronts him in a dark doorway ...

Q: Why are you following me? KGB? CIA? FBI?
A: No ... G-A-Y !!

Thank you. I used to spend some significant time with both Muscovites and Ukranians (never call them Russians :)). As a matter of fact it's because of those associations and my subsequen affinity for vodka my liver sets off metal detectors. So, shark, again sorry, but the Ukranian origin fits my curiosity of a more western etymology (probably using that wrong)to the name.

Oh Shark...was that a right or a left at Poland???

Thanks Kaimu

I used to help a Slovakian girl with her homework......

Good morning Kaimu,

Gotta' question, Why would oil break down? You provide the strongest argument for it to stay strong.

1. It's a great weapon, where the littlest producer can jack the price by jawboning.

2. Supply seems to be a ?

2. Be damned if I can see a situation where the $, eh, US PESO, can strengthen for any amount of time.

3. The maniacle aversion to solving the energy problem in the U.S. (moratorium on solar farms, no nuclear, no drilling,)

4. Both the fiscal and current accounts strait jacket the country is in (how much does oil add to that CA deficit...)Collapse of the consumer, etc.

5. And of course........the coming Apocalypse:)

anyone thinking about getting long gold?

hey b0ss, you expressed interest in UYG @ 20.09 back on Thurs, you could've picked some up this morning @ that price...

Good morning,
I was just curious if anyone here has any experience or can offer some advice about the Cpmgroup's newsletters? I'm sepecifically talking about the weekly and monthly ones. I'm looking at purchasing the weekly report.

Gold is down $15/oz

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

This on the Fundmymutualfund.com site this morning regarding Brunswick:

* Brunswick Corporation (NYSE: BC - News) announced today a set of comprehensive actions to resize the company to improve profitability during the current downturn in the U.S. marine market, including actions to reduce its fixed-cost structure by $300 million versus 2007 spending levels.
* "Retail unit sales of power boats in the United States have been in decline since late 2005; however, the rate of decline has been accelerating," McCoy added. "Industry retail unit sales were down 13 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 and down 21 percent in the first quarter of 2008 compared with the respective year-ago quarters. Further, these reductions were recorded off of an already low base. Total unit sales of power boats in the United States in 2007 were at their lowest in more than 40 years."
* "An uncertain economy, high fuel and food prices, slumping home sales and values, rising unemployment and other factors continue to erode U.S. consumers' confidence and are reducing their ability and desire to purchase discretionary items such as boats, and billiards tables and fitness equipment for their homes.
* Brunswick stated that its $300 million cost savings target will be achieved in part by further shrinking its North American manufacturing footprint. The company plans to have 17 or fewer boat plants by the end of 2009, compared with the 29 it had in 2007. (read: job losses) This will require the closure of four plants in addition to eight plant closures already completed or announced.
* A reduction in production rates also results, unfortunately, in the need for fewer workers." The company said that it had notified employees today that it would be reducing its hourly and salaried work force at certain of its marine plants by 1,000. Further work force reductions of approximately 1,000 hourly and 700 salaried employees across the company's marine business units and staff functions are contemplated as additional plant closures and consolidations and other cost-cutting measures are completed. (that's 1000 newly minted Walmart/Costco/Big Lots workers, with another 1700 coming)

FattyArbuckle,

I have been looking at UYG today. I think I will wait until tomorrow or so. I do have a little XLF, but I will sell that and switch to UYG when I think the time is right.

Just watching this free fall in AIG....traders must be expecting the worst for Q2 numbers.

Waiting is something I should do much more of...

And jeez, Wachovia down 7% today... woof.

Think patience is important here.

Last day of the month, first day tomorrow.

Thinking some funds that dropped/lowered positions in big losers may grab a position in a beaten down company (for example GE) tomorrow. Observing some of the activity, thinking some are moving already as they closed the quarter’s books a couple of days ago (3 days clearance).

Speaking of patience, refiners sure test that. TSO (sold puts @ 20) and HOC (long).

BTW, apologies for typos/omission in prior 9:29 a.m. post.
Should have been “wasn’t able to participate” and “Good luck”.

DUG - Would have placed a limit bid @ 26.52 this morning, and then sold this afternoon, but I have to wait for some of my other trades to close...
boo-hooo!

dear gang,

have been in mexico´s mayan rivera for the past week at a friends wedding,

the internet is shaky at best in the area im in, but its been a treat to see gold taking off the past while, i needed a break from chart watching for a while, but cant wait to dive back into things when i get back with recharged batteries.

i realize while on vacation how much i work to eventually have more moments like this, and yet i find myself missing the hustle bustle of the big city and the markets.

trading stocks in a vacation environment may no be so bad after all|

good luck,

These FETV people are funny...

"Oops, we've slipped into a bear market."
"Ok, the Dow's only down 10 points, we're out of the bear market."
"Look at that, we're back in bear market territory."

Surely this is a misuse of the meaning of bear market, no?

BC - I can tell you from first-hand experience that pleasure boat sales are in the crapper (except perhaps Yacht sales). There was no one out on the lake this weekend and that's a bad sign. The marina here is dead. The last few years sales has been minimal, but this year worse even, with gasoline being so high.

dr.cosa - Have a DOS EQUIIS for me, or would that be a gringo beverage down there?

As we suggested in a few posts a week or so ago, the U.S. equity market became technically very weak and that suggested the upside was capped and the downside was in play. The market then proceeded to roll over and move down hard after the FOMC meeting.

Now we have month-end trading and the upcoming holiday providing a short-term boost to the market. Next week those factors will have dissipated and we expect the market to move down again. In the meantime, the ECB looks like it will now hike its short-term interest rate on Thursday which could provide a negative jolt to the U.S. dollar and the equity markets.

p.s. The prices of MBIA and Ambac are trading like they will declare bankruptcy any week now. Expect muni yields to rise as a result, as more paper hits the Street from additional monoline insurer downgrades by the rating agencies.

JW
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Seamus: No apologies/worries. Best Wishes to your friend, hoping for the most favorable outcome.

You are right.....patience being tested by TSO/GE/TAN/TBT/MON. Keeping it small and will add on any coming weakness.

Makes one appreciate Cenex.

MER - how this isn't at least 30 is beyond me

Went to breakfast at the lake over the weekend with my wife. Temps here in the mid 90's and the lake was like glass....only a few boats, all fishing. Usually it would be choppy and waterskiers all over the place. Lots of jetskis for sale (noticed two trailers full on the way to town). It seems to be that gallons per mile thing....

Boating - In times like these (and my usual style) I recommend that boaters pick an "out of the way" place to stop and spend the day, rather than just ride around burning gasoline. This will make a huge difference in your recreational expenses.

Craig

Thank you.

Hope your mother is doing well also; and your follow-up work responsibility has lessened.

Re Cenex, nice dividend check issued today after the close ;0)

Ran into a Mercedes Dealer over the weekend who claimed the high end vehicle business was doing well as Europeans were purchasing expensive vehicle models unavailable in Europe. Euro price has allegedly made them bargains for those with the euro cash. Led to believe a number of those sales were completed via the internet. BTW, no sign of Americans.

Perhaps BC needs to target this group, but I don’t think the Europeans will park those boats in the Alps. They'll need the little cove in the Bahamas first.

Lehman just fell off a cliff. This rally may be awfully short.

Moab,

Last time Lehman was this low was the turn of the century.

Seamus: Not yet....mom is like a deer in the headlights...fight or flight.....

Apparently aging took her by surprise, which might be amusing if it weren't for how difficult it makes my job. Wants to go kicking and screaming....sure makes me realize that planning now will make it much easier for my Daughter.
Looking around thinking about how all this "stuff" is really a burden and keeps one from being free. Starting now to lighten the load and free myself to enjoy a bit more.

Anyone want to buy a boat? LOL!

Yeah, it looks like the second Lehman fell under the June lows 0f 21.44 it was viciously sold, so it looks like it was not news related by technical selling, in which case perhaps this rally can recover for another day or two.

Hmmm.... the gold train could be leaving the station. Dollar up a little, but inflation expectations could overcome all else and we could see the dollar slowly edge lower.

With the BKX here, arguably gold should be much higher. We may just stay level even if we do get a knock in down in oil.

Heads up for your next shopping trip...

This month, Kellogg's started shipping Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn Pops, Froot Loops and Honey Smacks containing an average of 2.4 fewer ounces per box.

Tropicana orange juice containers are shrinking from 96 ounces to 89; Wrigley's is dropping its the 17-stick PlenTPak in favor of the 15-stick Slim Pack; Dial soap bars now weigh half an ounce less, and that's even before they melt in the shower. Containers of Country Crock spread, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Edy's and Breyer's ice cream have all slimmed down as well

Costco (Kirkland) dog food 40 lbs still....was $17.49, then $20.49, then $23.69, now $25.39 (as of yesterday).

Meats are still in liquidation mode, baby back ribs still 3.99 lbs, Tenderloin/Filet Mignon still 8.95. Same for other types/cuts except salmon which is way up (supply/demand). Adding to freezer. It won't last once farmers/ranchers/feedlots are done lowering stocks as a result of feed prices, then they will fly sky high like everything else.

QT....your post reminded me of an investment thesis that my wife had a little while ago. She has no interest in finance, stocks, markets etc. and it isn't a topic of conversation very much.

For awhile now she has stopped buying several name brand items at the store and replacing them with generic or store brand items. e.g...she started buying Kroger shredded cheese instead of Kraft(a few $$$'s difference). So her question was would a stock like Kroger do well because of this possible increase in revenue and would companies like Kraft, PG, Kellogg, be hurt by this customer behavior?

Looking at some of the charts such as Kroger and Kraft maybe I should have listened more intently. Obviously this is more of a fundemantal analysis and I have not done any DD on these mentioned here. Just food (no pun intended) for thought and wondered what other may think of this.

I read an article similar to this about Coors and Miller beer benefiting from the decline in micro/imported beer sales because of price.

Schleppy

"maybe I should have listened more intently"

NEVER...NEVER...NEVER... admit this to her. Trust me...too many men have ALREADY done their DD on this topic. Learn from them! :-)

QT......that tought never crossed my mind.

She would fancy herself the next Hetty Green if I told her she had a good investment idea.

"The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised downward U.S. April oil demand by 863,000 barrels per day to 19.77 million bpd -- 3.9 percent below year-ago levels -- as surging fuel costs erode demand in the world's top consumer.

The revision showed April demand was the lowest for the month since April 2002, and came even before prices scaled to new highs in June.

This revision of the U.S. oil demand for April has certainly put pressure on crude futures. This is demand destruction before our very eyes," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading. "This is a huge revision, and it happened when (fuel) prices were still lower, so you can expect that there could be more future downgrades in demand data."

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080630/markets_oil.html

SUN-> partial profits into the 9% move today...VLO/TSO also looking good...large volume bids always occur at the least likely times, maybe due to short-covering?

...or should i say being ready to throw in the towel on refiners over the weekend clearly indicated a near-term bottom?

Sold my VLO and ESLR this morning, VLO for a 3% profit since Friday's close, ESLR -- no change. Even though I believe these stocks will rise long term (thanks, 2nd_ave, for your take on ESLR last night), I think a better entry would be when either VIX gets above 30 or when offshore drilling will be allowed and the oil price turns around. In either case, I will be able to SEE those events in real time and will get a clear signal that it is time to buy. For now, why try to guess the bottom or ride a dangerous oversold bounce, that can turn around at any moment?

DavidV

Canwest is down 7% today... nobody likes Canadian media anymore?

Wow, what an ugly close.

[Bill Cara note: The Financials continue to weigh. But one look at the junior precious metals miners tells me the Bulls in this segment of the market are going to be sadly disappointed. The gold and silver price may pop a few dollars every time a newsletter writer like Harry Shultz issues an All Points Bulletin or whatever, but I don't think the pog is going anywhere. I even think a lot of these newsletter writers are trying to get off their stock or accept money to help others do that. Buyer beware.]

I thought it was beautiful!

Of course, I'm short.

number2son: yep on close... rolled my dice wrong on Friday, guess it's time to sit and be patient for a bit :)

yay just got bill's book today, now to begin learning about shorts...

[Bill Cara note: I now own the publisher's rights to my own book. ISI Publishing is still making books available for sale in Canada, but if you have difficulty getting one, write me and I'll make the arrangements myself. With no further promotion (than here), we sold 40 books in the US last week through Amazon.com. I'm surprised they wouldn't ship to Canada or that ISI has not stocked Amazon.ca. If you like the book, tell your friends.]

Big day for Cameco (CCJ) today - the uranium trade looks like it may have bottomed/reversed. I don't have any CCJ but I took a position today (last night) in ASX miner Energy Resources Australia (ERA.AX - 68% owned by Rio Tinto). ERA owns the 2nd largest U mine in the world (Ranger Mine) in N. Australia. They supply 10% of the worlds uranium.

It's easy Casey...you just play the dark side!

I was in and out of shorting MON for the last few days, mainly scalping to offset/hedge my small long position. Made way more shorting it.

If you are going to short in day trade mode it may as well be something that has some good multi $$$ moves and volatility. How's your heart? I suspect you are in good shape. You'll need it shorting unless you are shorting off a rally and eyeing Bill's 10000 call.

Looked to buy some CCJ but will wait and see if it pulls back. Did buy USU and PKN last week and they look good too.

Added TBT and some MR, calls on SKF and RTN, Calls on VIX. Call ob SUN came out of the red today and I hope it flies.

Re: OIL DEMAND REVISED

So the USEIA reduces April demand for oil by 863,000 barrels. Since the government is known for its highly accurate stats (hehe), it makes one wonder if the Energy Dept. is jawboning the oil market, trying to drive the price down by manipulation of the demand numbers?

Demand Creation and Supply Destruction

China is adding 25,000 cars per month to the road. Indian growth in motor vehicles....ditto.
Lots of fresh demand coming from emerging nations around the world.

Current production levels are fragile and are becoming difficult to maintain. A 400,000 bpd rig was shut down last week in Nigeria. Mexico's production is falling,Libya is threatening to take anti-American action related to their oil production.Iraq production is questionable. Indonesia no longer exports oil. Labor issues and inflationary components are also restraining production. Toss in the behavior of Congress and a cornucopia of oil seems remote.

Wilbur Ross said today "the US consumer is tapped out and psyched out" All I can say is just wait 6 months.

nothing like music to take your mind off the markets...like a rolling stone always takes me straight back to falls/winters at college, weekend road trips with 2-3 carloads to chicago or toronto, when life was simpler-> the next exam, the next pacino film, the friday night dance, the girl you met last weekend...pizza at the brown jug, blues at mr. flood's, used LPs for sale/trade all over town...kojak/police story/mean joe greene and franco harris on sundays...how about tom rush/leonard cohen/judy collins at hill auditorium...sometimes the markets just recede...

Check this out!

Excerpts from Terry Savage article:

"While everyone in the media is focused on keeping aliens out of America, Congress has voted to lock its citizens -- or at least a good portion of their assets -- into -- America!"

"You probably didn't notice this little provision inserted into the Heroes Act of 2008, passed by Congress on June 17.

But Richard Kohan of Price WaterhouseCoopers drew my attention to one section of the act -- the portion that states anyone voluntarily giving up his or her citizenship will be taxed on ALL of his assets as if he or she had sold them -- paying capital gains on assets that have increased in value, even though they have not been sold!"

http://tinyurl.com/6pctkw
(Thought Kaimu may have been a contributor)

Craig: thanks

I suspect shorting is going to take a shift in mindset for me, we will see after a spend some time reading Bill's book. (thanks Bill)

Seamus:

From what I understand it already was extremely hard to give up citizenship. Even if you did so, the US government has a habit of then telling people. Sorry you can't do that. Or at least I have heard stories to that effect. However, socially very few people would be able to give up their home nation due to family and social ties. Think back to how many people left Germany before WWII.. Proportionally not many could due to the social reasons.

What index or group of stocks are people using as a proxy for junior precious metals shares performance? Thanks in advance.

Peter Schiff Interview:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121460948834112305.html?mod=googlenews_barrons&page=sp

Shorting definitely involves a shift in mindset. Once that shift is fully accomplished, you MAY never want to go long again. The agile shortist has so many advantages over the long side player it isn't even funny. Paramount among these is perhaps the simple notion that by playing the short side, once distances onesself as far as is possible from the rank of the amateur. In addition, it takes lots of buying to raise share prices, but stocks can fall for pretty much no reason at all and often do. And ulike our great and fearless leader Bill, I don't anticipate a new bull market beginning anytime soon. So have at it mate. But it will take some practice and some getting used to. Maybe it's the bear market, but the only money I've ever really made in the stock market has been by going short. Good luck, and lemme know how it goes.

I agree with shark re:shorting; and, with Bill on the market. Don't worry though, as a fair and wise-guy once said: "What goes down, must come out" Taoist?

I don't like seeing so much red in my portfolio and compensating that red has been a chore. I'm ready for things to turn around now...

Kaimu is slacking off today...

CP- that's exactly the kind of fatigue that once embraced by the market gestalt leads to a change in direction, IMO...i was intrigued by the sustained bid for refiners (SUN/TSO/VLO) today that seemed to come out of nowhere...all of your positions, if i recall correctly, were purchased during sustained pullbacks...do you recall the angst of FXP and SKF holders in early May? it took just six weeks for the pendulum to swing so far the other way it turned into the agony of deciding when to sell...> maybe it's easier to trust you bought them at a good time and forget about them for awhile?

2nd

Before I head out I thought you might find this interesting. Think there is a trade in this? ;-)

http://tinyurl.com/3v3wh6

See you tomorrow at the opening bell.

Casey—“From what I understand it already was extremely hard to give up citizenship.”

From what I understand it is extremely hard to get it back once you relinquish it. Thinking of the changes since 9/11 and depending on your new country citizenship, you may have to be fingerprinted before being allowed back in the country.

Your points I agree with . . . posted story as other posters here have occasionally opined about moving elsewhere, although the Bahamas sure look nice ;)

I have been very impressed with the recent more "doom and gloom"-like forecasts that have been issued by International Banks. Because it comports with my worldview, it seems like, *finally*, some truth is being spoken.

Then, all of a sudden, the cynic in me wonders if these cats are making a bid for American HB&B's and are trying to drop their cost-basis.

Soverign wealth funds that try to bail out the HBBs are going to have their heads handed to them. Don't be surprised if there are suicides or traders arrested for squandering their wealth.

The credit bubble expanded as far as it could, and there is no stopping a collapse of a bubble caused by excess credit. Von Mises proclaimed this.

The FED is totally screwed, and it will be interesting watching which one of their own booby traps they fall into next.

The FED has discovered that creating unlimited money and credit shows up in exploding commodity and oil prices. Their model must not have shown this. The exploding commodity prices will crush the economy faster then their bailout money eases the pain. Continuing with these same mistakes, will put us in a depression.

Nice dissertation, Ben.

What do people here think about the recent John Mauldin’s “Outside the Box” titled “The end of inflation scare” [http://tinyurl.com/3kwyco]? Here are some quotes from it:
- While the Fed did print money aggressively between 2002 and 2005 (M1 annual growth was above +5% and sometimes close to +10%), in recent years, the pace of monetary creation has by and large been tame. So the ‘excess money' had to come from somewhere else.
- So we are now in a situation where a) The Fed is not printing money and b) US financials are de-leveraging rapidly. Thus, if inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon", one may conclude that what we are now seeing in the inflation numbers is the echo of the 2003-2007 credit boom, but that looking ahead, the inflation picture should start improving rather dramatically. But such a conclusion would miss out on the other big contributor to global liquidity growth, namely the US current account deficit.
- We would thus argue that the US current account deficit has been a double inflationary force for the world at large. First, the US current account deficit has pushed a number of countries towards reflation, and secondly, the large US current account deficit has helped propagate the belief that the US$ could only fall, and thus encouraged large borrowings of US$ outside of the US.
- Will an ever growing US trade deficit continue to force other countries to reflate and lead to an ever lower US$? We tend to believe that the answer to that question is a very firm "no". And, this for several reasons: ...

The dollar is toast due to the current policies. Until you see a reversal of the policies, it will continue to decline, IMHO.

A policy reversal, say Fed funds rate to 8%, would crush the economy of the US.

Therefore they are in an impossible position.

They either destroy us with with appropriate rates, or the commodity prices rising due to declines in the USD will from another side. It's going to be one or the other.

2nd - You're absolutely correct, I do believe these past two weeks presented some very good buying opportunities, I'm just going to have to get used to the color red for a while.

Anyway, my belief is we'll see $150 oil within the next for weeks, with a fade back to $140 range by 4th qtr. end.

If this is the case, the magical reality will perhaps come via bounces along the yellow brick roadway...

Thinking out loud....

If Americans want to move out of the country and take resources with them, how would/could that be done considering electronic transfers of monetary resources world wide....and if not through electronic transfer, does anyone think that interdiction efforts would be anymore effective than say the war on drugs? If smugglers can bring in bales of whatever with relative impunity, I'm curious as to how they would stop the cash that is already leaving our borders to pay for peruvian marching powder and Shark's herbal medications. Doesn't cash have to make it to Columbia and Peru already?

Not that I would ever need to consider such things, but seriously, what would it take? Maybe the reverse of Halliburton's Cayman Island PO Box, a lot of American Express Traveler's checks, a little more room in some cruiser's outbound hull, a small space in a 40' container, or maybe some Cubans making the escape in reverse?
I have some old acquaintences with rather large holdings in the Phillipines which had/has limits on how much could/can leave the country, and it wasn't very effective. As someone close to this blog said, you can carry quite a lot of gold in a suit jacket. Only politicians could come up with such useless (and ultimately uninforceable)concepts. It's a crazy world.

How to get the Gold and Silver (and other PM) bars out of the country and to what safe haven, is a key issue for me. I don't want any more "qualified investor" BS. No doubt they have it figured out already. You can't get Gold in a suit past x-ray.

Before I commit to any more hard PMs, I need to know the safe haven, and it's definately not in the USA. I have a Kukaburra coming as a conversation piece. ;)

..."Amazing. We got yet another Hindenburg Omen Monday, June 30th, the last day of the quarter, the sixth observation of this cluster, and of this month. This warns that the stock market remains unhealthy. New Highs were 79, New Lows at 477, the lesser of the two 2.40 percent of total issues traded, which were 3,287. The McClellan Oscillator remained negative. Since the Hindenburg Omen was confirmed on June 16th, the Industrials have fallen nearly one thousand points, 981 to be exact, or 8.0 percent, and counting." - McHugh

Major decline in Europe right now.
INO.com is showing Dow Futures down over 106.

FTSE down over 2.3%

Sure you can...by the truckload. Ever been through the US/CDN border? A suit would be on a very small scale....try a camper. Think they check outbound cruising sailers? The Bahamas are a day sail from Florida as are the Caymans, etc.