The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is out, and it's ugly:

http://tinyurl.com/3gdo7l

Per Econoday, the consensus range was +2 to -8.0.

Good morning from Cape Town

The Electric Light Orchestra lyrics “... you took me ohh, higher and higher baby, it's a living thing, it's a terrible thing ...” have been mulling through my head over the past week as central bankers’ inflation-fighting rhetoric moved to centre stage.

A succession of hawkish comments from US policymakers persuaded pundits that the US rate-cutting cycle was over, resulting in a stronger US dollar, plummeting government bonds, predominantly lower global stock markets (with Asia seeing the most red), and non-agricultural commodities coming off the boil.

Read all about this in my weekly review, highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week.

Here is the link to the “Words from the Wise”: http://tinyurl.com/45hrgf

PS: My crystal ball shows that a stock market rally, possibly led by financials, is on the cards. Yeh, I know we're getting Lehman, Goldman and Morgan Stanley results this week.

What say you?

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

HDB - to Buy @ Citigroup
SNDK - to Market Perform @ JMP Securities

Downgrade:

GE - to Neutral @ JP Morgan

--------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

gold having a nice jump this morning,
did things not fare so well at the G8 meetings?

or is this a small blip as part of an ongoing correction?

Cara 100 Update:

RIMM -Target Price Raised from $165 to $205 @ AmTech Research

rally mode sounds right...

If there's a rally this week, it's getting off to a bad start. Oil is surging again and the Empire State Survey sent the futures into a tailspin.

You buying the open 2nd?

i'll be adding to CAF on weakness...

Does gold look rather like an antler then a rhino horn today!

DZZ at 28.89 for a trade...

refiners selling off (again)...buying opportunity (holding onto 80% exposure)...

Does it seem like there are fewer stupid people in the market now than there were a year ago...Fewer people in general?

n2s- paraphrasing from cara china:

a wall of worry is the ultimate bull platform, right...and if i'm not truly worried, then no one else is...so i always look forward to getting worried-> the discomfort comes in opening/holding a position in that state of mind...most people aren't going to do it, which is exactly where the potential for gains arise...if that's the strategy, you're always going to be early...

as soon as confidence starts to creep in, once again i have to assume everyone else has the same sentiment-> if you enter at this point, you'll be late...there's discomfort in being early or late-> which path one prefers depends on the individual..we're all designed a little differently...

entering shanghai now may be early, but in the larger context-> relative to opening at any other time in the past year, you have a pretty low basis...

Gold - Still in upward momentum, with black boxes working their fannies off.

2nd, I like the cut of your jib. ;)

Yours is a solid psychological approach to a market that trades with such volatility and in such a narrow range. Although, of course, the bias is decidedly bearish.

so in a way, no surprise that oil spikes in response to talk of increased production by the saudis and concern by the g8 over the weekend...question would be whether buying oil right now is the smart trade-> or might it be a manufactured selling opportunity...

Lehman conference call getting broadcast on Bloomberg. Fuld is a self-serving snake, imo. Until he is canned, Lehman is toxic.

No position.

clarification: just saying that anyone who expected oil to drop (knee jerk, right) was bound to be disappointed...let's see where it is by eod or end of week

Let's face it, the whole world is an enormous scam.

moving to 40% (of allocation) on GE....

shark- even if that were true, turning away in disgust is not going to help...the right move is finding a way to out-scam the system...

Dick Fuld "takes full responsibility". Huh?

This sounds like a refrain from a character in a Woody Allen's movies (I can't recall the name), an adulterer who says after being confronted time and again with his bad behavior, "I accept your condemnation."

It was great seeing Sullivan get canned this weekend, waiting for more liars to get "slapped" down..

short LEH 27.90 with a frog tight stop

shark- take a look at SUN...they're making money, and they have a product you use everyday...when sentiment changes from negative to positive (it always does), you'll see a mirror image in price movement...

Re: Yield Curve

Euro area yield curve very wonky now:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

stopped out on a $ trailer at a nice profit

Oil spiking? Didn't OPEC (http://tinyurl.com/4mucfy) decide to up its output? Correct me if I am wrong, but an increase in supply coupled with a reported overall decrease in demand should have prices coming down. The saber rattling over Iran can't put THAT much emotional pricing into it. What gives?

nicely done...

can you see oil at 60...it may get there for the same 'reason(s)' it got to 140...

I'll keep an eye on SUN, but I gotta tell you...I've got a new technique that's actually making me money. I'm sick of being a long, I've been doing better shorting rallys that peter out with a trailing stop taking small but really fast profits.

Oil at $60? Here's how, MAYBE!

http://tinyurl.com/4vyta9

From The Times
June 14, 2008
Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide 'renewable petroleum'

LOL- i've heard of oil-eating bacteria that excrete bio-friendly waste (used to help with oil spills)...so why not the opposite?

2nd,

Check out the P&F chart on GE.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GE,PETADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

I looked on the weekend and target was $19. Now it's $28.

Looks like an upgrade to me. :)

At the risk of jinxing a rally, ESLR is moving strongly this a.m. They are getting some wind from the sector, but they are also attracting buyers who paid attention to last week's presentation at the Weisel conference.

They also have an investor day this Thursday to introduce their bright, shiny and new manufacturing facility in Devens, MA.

I added to my position on last week's weakness. The stock will have trouble holding $10 imo, though, given the high call/put ratio during this op ex week.

wavesmash- significant insider buying as well...

Everyone knows that the Fed will not raise before the election. That was a jerk move to throw in some fake volatility and take profits. Oil is reacting appropriately. The euro/yen usd/yen carry is on in force however, and the markets are being held up. I am more surprised by the strenght of the euro, after Ireland opted out of the constitution. I do not think most traders appreciate how harmful that is to the euro. Nevertheless, with Japan charging half percent to trade, the euro temptation is overwhelming caution.

Didn't everyone "know" that China wouldn't tank before the olympics?

shark- not over till it's over...

Q: What does a blonde say when you blow in their ear?
A: "Thanks for the refill!"

Q: What does a blonde say when she gives birth?
A: Gee, Are you sure it's mine?

there are countless ways to get to the same place...beijing will do their best to profit in every conceivable way from its chosen path...they want an upbeat populace, they want lower oil prices, they want a strong dollar, they want sustainable (slower) growth...they'll do what they can to get there...JMO...

ALOHA !!

Hummmm ... Lysander-LYM:TSXV is up another 15% today to $0.47CDN, on modest volume. Nearly a 400% gain in a month or so! Nobody is selling! I presume nobody wants to sell until the news of a takeover by a major Australia coal/gold producer is announced. Thats what I hear from my network! All supposedly tied to the one Aussie director on the board ... I will call "around" today to see what's the latest.

I9 shoulda re-shorted LEH at the new high, but was faked out by the higher high. You can NEVER short this bad broker too much.

Anyone here ever date blondes? I have. That's why the jokes are so funny:)

Don't get me wrong...they're really really fun:)

The market on the computer screens and the US Open playoff on the TV; doesn't get any better!

"A British official says European Union nations have agreed in principle to freeze the assets of Iran's largest bank."

http://tinyurl.com/54gayg

sharkie - I'm hoping you're a blonde

Used to be a bleach-blonde, but then I grew up (some).

why in God's name is Bernanke speaking about health care costs and the need to address it? It is not his place to do so. Trying to shift the conversation from inflation?

I am eagerly awaiting the Lysander news. Talk about insider trading - this thing is up 400% on no news.

From Prieur's “Words from the Wise”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CNBC: Sex and the stimulus package – “More bang for the buck’?!

“It seems the down economy is hurting every business, even the oldest profession. The Moonlight BunnyRanch in Carson City, a legal brothel featured on HBO’s ‘Cathouse’, is offering the first 100 customers who show up with their stimulus rebate checks twice the ‘services’ for the same price.

“They’re calling it, (this is where I clear my throat uncomfortably), ‘more bang for your buck’. The BunnyRanch is a place Larry Flynt calls ‘America’s Hottest Cat House’, and he oughtta know.

“As for the stimulus offer, a guy who brings in an entire $1,200 check gets a special deal: three women and a bottle of bubbly. Anyone notice that a guy with a $1,200 check is married to qualify for that amount?

“But wait, there’s more! The legal bordello plans to have all 100 customers, plus some of the Bunnies, sign a thank you card and send it to President Bush. Oy.”

Source: Jane Wells, CNBC, June 12, 2008

Q:How do you know a blonde has been working at your computer?
A:There is white-out on the monitor.

Q: What do you call a brunette between two blondes?
A: Interpretor.

Q: What is the mating call of a Blonde?
A:"I'm so drunk...."

What really burns my butter is when these fed chairmen start talking about cutting entitlements, which they also do, and which is also totally out of the scope of their authority.

Q: Why did the blonde scale the glass wall?
A: To see what was on the other side.

taking DZZ off the table at 29.50...

Friends of Angelo” story :For weeks now, key major media outlets have been frothing at the mouth over alleged sweetheart deals given to various politicos and other key public figures by Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC: 5.13, +5.99%) CEO Angelo Mozilo. The frenzy began with a Wall Street Journal story on June 7 that suggested now-former adviser to Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign James Johnson had received a sweetheart loan from Mozilo directly; it didn’t take but a week for Obama to jettison the Democratic party powerhouse from his staff after the allegations came to light.

It seemed that might be the end of the issue, but as with most things on Capitol Hill, if someone keeps pulling a thread, it eventually becomes clear just how much sweater was really knit. Doing the thread-pulling in this case was Portfolio.com, which unloaded a doozy last week, claiming that Senators Christopher Dodd (D-CT), chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, as well as Kent Conrad (D-ND), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee and a member of the Finance Committee, were both beneficiaries of the same hush-hush VIP lending program.

It’s enough to make you wonder if Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), who has publicly blasted Countrywide’s executives and even helped purge at least one senior executive from Bank of America’s post-merger management plans, had at one time used the red phone to dial up a deal on his own mortgage.

While Dodd has issued a public denial to the claims he received preferential treatment, Conrad got nervous enough that he admitted receiving preferential treatment over this past weekend and said he will refinance his mortgages, giving $10,500 to charity as well in a clear attempt to make this issue go away.

When an issue is able to make Senators uneasy enough that they begin nervously defensive maneuvers, experience suggests that there is yet more pulling of the proverbial thread to be done.

http://tinyurl.com/4en533

how about switching to market-related jokes...

PCLN->

Q: What does the USS Enterprise have in common with toilet paper?

A: They both circle Uranus looking for Kling-ons...

On hydrogen power: Two water molecules walking down the street in opposite directions bumped into each other. The first molecule asked the second "Excuse me! Are you alright?" The second said "Yes, I just lost an electron." The first asked: "Are you sure?" The second replied: "Yes, I'm positive."

Chickenpookie

LOL..... that was good!

Q: Why did God create stock analysts ?
A: In order to make weather forecasters look good.

How many investment brokers does it take to screw in a lightbulb ?

- "My god, it burnt out ! Sell all my general electric stock, NOW !!!"

How many CEOs does it take to screw their investors?
Just one.

Excellent market valuation analysis by Bennett Sedacca:

http://tinyurl.com/4h2ggt

He thinks the overall market is overvalued by 60%!

FRO - up big today with a nice uptrend this year. Anyone here into shipping?

shipping? i heard fedex and ups were joining forces, to be called....fedup.

Yea, soon to be FED down the crapper...

A guy walks into his psychiatrists office wearing nothing but saran wrap.

The psychiatrist says: "I can clearly see your nuts"

[Bill Cara note: My Dad told me that one a few months before he passed away.

The day he died, which had been expected for the previous year, my brother found him to be particularly alert. He asked Dad how come he got all the pretty attending nurses, and Dad smiled and said, "Because I ask for them."

I guess it's "Don't ask, don't get."]

How do you know you've found a good tax accountant?
He has a loophole named after him.

A blonde was standing in front of a soda machine outside of a local store. After putting in sixty cents, a root beer pops out of the machine. She set it on the ground, puts sixty more cents into the machine, and pushes another button; suddenly, a coke comes out the machine!

She continued to do this until a man waiting to use the machine became impatient. "Excuse me, can I get my soda and then you can go back to whatever stupid thing you are doing?"

The blonde turns around and says, "Yeah right! I'm not giving up this machine while I'm still winning!"

Cracking up Papa.... found that one particularly humorous.

Kaimu - Have you heard any more re: LYM? I don't have that one yet...

Moab,
Re: health care.
Your right he shouldn't be however he should because per Dallas fed chief speech about a month ago Medicare costs will me in the trillions (40 T?, not sure as info is not accessible).

Those costs must be addressed as the rely on Medicaid reimbursement schedules. So healthcser is not a free market. I believe the costs are way to inflated. If they are not addressed eventually it will be the fed's problem years from now.

Moab,
Re: health care.
Your right he shouldn't be however he should because per Dallas fed chief speech about a month ago Medicare costs will me in the trillions (40 T?, not sure as info is not accessible).

Those costs must be addressed as the rely on Medicaid reimbursement schedules. So healthcser is not a free market. I believe the costs are way to inflated. If they are not addressed eventually it will be the fed's problem years from now.

Moab,
Re: health care.
Your right he shouldn't be however he should because per Dallas fed chief speech about a month ago Medicare costs will me in the trillions (40 T?, not sure as info is not accessible).

Those costs must be addressed as the rely on Medicaid reimbursement schedules. So healthcser is not a free market. I believe the costs are way to inflated. If they are not addressed eventually it will be the fed's problem years from now.

Physicians in North America enjoy the highest salaries in the world. Medical professionals in China do not enjoy the high salaries. Insourcing physicians from elsewhere and outsourcing some procedures ( medical tourism) may be the answer for govts, HMO's and insurance providers.

chickenpookie asked "Anyone here into shipping?"

I've been known to dabble in maritime shipping...

Watermelon - How do you feel about FRO/DRYS right now? My feeling is dry bulk will take a hit soon from failing crops, but steel and coal will be up. Tanker will continue to be strong.

You're right bullseye....We've got to get control of these freaking doctors and these insane insurance companies...

We need to "make" MANY more doctors and to perhaps have certain patients seen by medical people who aren't fully licenced doctors, along the lines of paralegals. Insurance companies such as they are presently need to be put out of business. There are many things that can be done purely for profit, such as manufacturing Ferrari's and running juice bars in the Bahamas. But for certain essential services, the so-called free market doesn't get the job done. I would like a Ferrari, though:)

the number of health insurance plans + the people needed to administer them-> that amount of time, effort and money could be used instead to include the un-/under-insured in a national health-care program...

If you trust Microsoft to honor their promotion, and don't mind using Ebay and Paypal, you can get up to 3 oz of gold for about $750 or less per ounce. Or something like 3 rolls of silver eagles for about $16 each coin. This promotion can end any time and will probably end very soon. No questions or promises by me, do your own diligence.

Microsoft is promoting their Live Search, I'm assuming to compete against Google. If you run a search on that site http://search.live.com/ for what you want, for example silver American eagle, you will see an ad link to Ebay with 35% off. Click on the ad, and it takes you to Ebay with only Paypal and Buy It Now items. You buy the item, pay with Paypal, get an Ebay message "You've earned cashback" about 15 minutes later, and click through that Ebay message to create a Live Search cashback account. Microsoft says it could take a couple of days the cashback amount will post to your account, so print each screen in case something goes wrong.

The catches:
-Have to click through Live Search and buy the item within 60 minutes;
-Limited to 3 purchases;
-Max $250 back each purchase;
-Won't get money from Microsoft for 60 days;
-You have to request Microsoft to put the cash back into your Paypal account.

Terms and conditions http://tinyurl.com/4nke69
Discussion forum http://tinyurl.com/4ty4rb

My new Dr does not accept any insurance. They will give paperwork if you want to file. I've had to self insure after moving to a new state. Paying with cash now is far cheaper than what I paid before the move, when I had Anthem insurance. (I mean what I pay in full by telling them I carry no insurance is less than my co-pays and out of pocket were when I had insurance.) They tried to quadruple my rate just for moving with no health change. The whole model is broken and will soon implode.

Hulbert: are stocks a good hedge against inflation?

http://tinyurl.com/4bhnd8

" Perhaps the most famous illustration of being a contrarian about inflation and stocks came during the high-inflation era of the 1970s. Because of money illusion at that time, investors had beaten the stock market's P/E down to single digits. That was unreasonable, according to a now-classic 1979 article by finance professors Franco Modigliani and Richard Cohn, since it meant that investors had failed to appreciate that stocks really are a good inflation hedge.
The bull market of the 1980s and 1990s vindicated their argument that stocks therefore were significantly undervalued. In 1985, Modigliani won the Nobel Prize in economics."

On with the Kevlar.

Confirming Hindenburg Omen on Monday. 25% prob of a crash now till October.

ALOHA !!

Spent most of the day in Hilo ... Gas is $4.29USD per gallon! It went up since last week! Last week I bought at $4.17USD per gallon ... Oh well, what I am I going to do start my own oil company and drill in my pasture?

I will make another attempt tomorrow, Tuesday, to contact Lysander-LYM(TSXV) regarding an update.

Remember shares outstanding are around 23mil and management owns some 30% ...

The Fed and the strong dollar policy....
Henry C K Liu

http://tinyurl.com/477bc3

Quote..
Despite the enormous damage the credit crisis of 2007 has done to the US economy, the potential harm of a sustained weak dollar can make the credit crisis look like a minor storm.

http://tinyurl.com/5em67m

Bernanke's Bluff.

Have a good one.

Where can I view the updated/current cara 100 list in its entirety?
TIA

They used to be able to dismiss the CPI numbers because the numbers were truly volatile month to month. Food and energy aren't volatile anymore. Now they're just high and staying high - probably going higher.

They used to be able to dismiss the CPI numbers because the numbers were truly volatile month to month. Food and energy aren't volatile anymore. Now they're just high and staying high - probably going higher.

small exerpt from today's Gartman letter, he has returned to a bullish stance on gold:

"it is time to return to the bullish side of the ledger, buying small periods of inter-day weakness so long as the spot holds above $860...

from a purely technical consideration, the risk to the downside from here is $25/dollars; the risk for a rush to the upside is to new highs, or $150... and the odds favour the latter being tested now that the former has already been put to test, and has held."

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrade:

ADBE - to Hold @ Kaufman Bros.

Coverage Resumed:

SU - Outperform @ RBC

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.