Cara 100 Target Price Changes:

CSCO - raised from $27 to $29 @ RBC

ABX - lowered from $51 to $48 @ RBC

Oil down and gold up? You don't see that very often.

And thanks for the Nasdaq pre-market tip, Bill.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is among the top pre-market advancers while FSL, SOLF and CSUN are among the biggest losers.

Goldfields (GFI) is trading at lows not seen since fall of 2005.

vinod- picking up DAL at 6.11...

Wow, positive news and an negative market response. Haven't seen that in a while.

Kaimu,

I watched all 7 of those videos. Thanks for posting them.

Very nice morning for TSO - refiners TSO and HOC upgraded by Deutsche Bank today

Closing QID

I knew that last minute selloff on Friday was suspicious...

Ah that explains it then, Bloomberg just said Gold price rising because of Jewellery buyers, Ha

long dcr 1.23

Opened a position in GFI @12.81 - also looking at Jan 09 and 10, $10 call strikes which look attractive

Just took some TSO off on the exuberance this morning but looking to add it back on some weakness that a little oil bounce might provide.

I'm in the same trades Billy. Had to do TSO. Traded it last week too.
GFI on another power rumor.

BRK/B was down 3.5%, got a couple shares.

Did anyone catch all that price action electronic whackiness of TBT this AM?
At one point it showed I had something like 283% profit.....I wish...

yikes...first my $ trailing stop got hit breakeven....then oil rallied like a sob.

Craig
TBT high 6/2/2008 75
LOw 5/12/2008 62.28

It is low 5/12/2008 68.22

Craig - if we see a scenario where precious metals outperform crude oil for a period of time, I think it should help the miners, especially some of the smaller miners that are very sensitive to the cost of oil as a production input.

Thus, I am looking for miners to outperform the physical metal if this scenario holds up.

I also think that some of the speculative money that has been riding the inflation wave on the back of oil may be looking to roll into gold/pms as a safer store of value (while retaining the inflationary protection).

NASDAQ quotes now real time in Google Finance.

http://tinyurl.com/4l7tgn

[Bill Cara note: http://tinyurl.com/3q8hmo ]

Bill, thank you for your gracious mention. I do this for myself, and I'm more than happy to share as I've gained so much from the many people that I've interacted with over the last three or so years.

I've automated portions of the worksheet to help with the tedium--so I can create it pretty quickly. I also do a daily sector sort on my blog. You've always done a terrific job in getting the big picture down first--and I've learned that lesson well.

The market data center on the WSJ on-line page is extraordinary. I believe that it is available to all without a subscription. If not, I think that it is a worthwhile subscription. Anyway, I hope that readers will visit that place.

Why's BRKB getting hit over a piddly Gen-Re judgement? What am I missing here?

Or is it just correcting from the rally last week?

Thank you Hoosier, very nice, and refreshes automatically too.

Woof, definitely closed QID too early. ah well...

BRK/B: Likely a bit of both. It did run up pretty good last week. There's always some excuse! I figured I'd take the 3.5% discount.

Billy: Yep, if oil pulls back miners should get a lift.

Vinod: Should have sold TBT at 75! Now I have to have patience and look for 68.....not fast enough this AM.

I'm curious to see if BKX gets juiced again @ EOD for a close back above 75... if not, and if XLF closes below 24.3-ish support, and if the VIX somehow makes it above 20... Then I might pick up some SKF.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/305

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY RELEASES STUDY ON INFORMED TRADING PRIOR TO ANALYST DOWNGRADES

[Bill Cara note: Because these are the people who undermine the credibility of capital markets, they, and not outsiders like Martha Stewart, are the ones who should be heavily prosecuted and imprisoned.

When you do the crime, you should also do the time; however, the time for securities industry registrants ought to automatically be ten times that served by non-registrants. That might smarten people up.]

Loaded up on DUG in the 28.12-28.20 range.

From: "The end of the oil stock rally"
by Jim Jubak

The supply-demand picture is very different for oil stocks than it is for oil itself. Here we're starting to run out of the most critical component of supply: skeptical investors who don't own any oil stocks. Stocks go up in price as new investors become convinced that they have to own these shares.

In the early stages, a sector rally depends on a supply of value buyers who are convinced the true fundamental value of the stocks in the sector isn't expressed in current prices.

In the middle stage, stock prices depend on a supply of new growth buyers who come to believe the arguments of value investors that the group is undervalued and who see evidence of earnings growth.

And in the final stages, the rally in the sector depends on momentum investors who, not having been convinced by the value or growth arguments, now decide to buy because the appreciation in stock prices in the sector becomes too tempting to resist.

We're in that last momentum stage now. In the first part of 2008, when oil was climbing toward $90 a barrel on the New York futures market, you could hear dissenting voices loud and clear: The price isn't justified by the fundamentals. It won't stick. It's driven by speculation. Oil stocks are overpriced. Don't buy them. They're at a top.

As oil prices climbed toward $135 a barrel, those voices gradually changed their tune. In recent weeks, I've heard members of the Federal Reserve say that recent oil prices are reasonable given the deteriorating fundamentals of the oil industry. The International Energy Agency has gradually cut its predictions for world oil supply and then launched a study that seems designed to show just how bad things "really" are.

Wall Street analysts have begun competing to see how high they can ratchet their projections for oil prices -- $200 a barrel, says Goldman Sachs -- and the higher projections have increasingly found their way into target prices for oil stocks.....

......When everyone agrees that oil stocks are the thing to own, where is the supply of new buyers going to come from? And without new buyers, oil stock prices will stagnate and then fall.

Fortunately, not everyone is convinced yet. Oppenheimer oil analyst Fadel Gheit, for example, continues to write that, fundamentally, oil shouldn't trade at more than $55 a barrel. To which I say, God bless. The minute the last skeptic turns into a believer and bellies up to buy oil shares, the rally in oil stocks is doomed.

Still, I'm worried there aren't enough skeptics left. Oil stocks have looked increasingly frothy this year. One sign of that is the huge gains being racked up by obscure small-cap stocks in the sector. These are exactly the kinds of stocks that attract the extreme momentum traders as a sector nears a top.

Complete article: http://tinyurl.com/4wrocy

06/02/08 12:34pm
[MER] Merrill Lynch & Co Inc S&P cuts investment bank ratings including Merrill, Lehman and Morgan Stanley
- JPM and BAC outlook revised to negative; Citigroup rating affirmed
- S&P cites potential for more write offs and prospect for continued investment banking weakness
- MER and LEH counterparty credit cut to A from A+, MS counterparty credit cut to A+ from AA-

$BKX has broken the quadruple bottom and that took that market with it. Seems to me the intermediate rally is dead.

Financials have raised money over the last two months and that window is closing now.

LEH getting walloped

2nd,

you get stopped out of dcr? I'd re-buy it...at a dollar.

Wait until S&P cuts MBIA and Ambac from triple A, unless the Feds bail them out first.

Lehmans's going out of business and no one told anyone except me.

S&P won't crack that 1375 support level. But the day is still young.

Is now the time to start collecting those old Lehman brothers shirts/hats/promotional items to sell on ebay in a few months (ala the BSC shirts I saw sold on ebay for $100+)?

Anyone know where I could find 100 lbs. of old Lehman t-shirts?

Look at the Sundance kid go...

back in dcr 1.17

Alright - I'll stop w/ the Lehman stuff for today - nothing to see here - on with the kerfuffle....

There's no way we're attacking Iran right now. For one thing, it's too far from the election still, and for another, every single thing the Debkafile ever published turns out to be wrong.

Attn: JOHN UK

Thanks for correcting my post yesterday regarding CCTV deployment in Britain... 4.2 million cameras...60 million Brits ..one camera per 15 persons. I had posted only 15,000 cameras.

BRK/B nice RT, took 2% then back in 4355.00

Traded SKF to 116, looking to reload when XLF chart goes extreme again. (macd/W%R/vol.)
Probably at the DJIA 50 DMA if it bounces off there.
Traded QID now out, nibbled a little ROM.

Heck and dang on TBT..I hate when that happens.

Think of what would happen to oil prices/markets.

They would tank like the Hindenburg.

Your welcome Astral25, its crazy the number of cameras they have over here, even the police admit they havent helped in combating crime.

http://tinyurl.com/53tqne

quote from above link..
"City centre cameras and those trained on public buildings may be justified but a study published more than five years ago suggested that better street lighting may be more effective at preventing crime than CCTV"

Craig
what I heard today is that Inflation is coming back,
and TBT may be around 80 within three month
oil and comodity will stay high
and market will bounce around 1200-1300
lets see how good this opinion is?

I'm keeping an eye on MON and POT today.

As far as MON, looks like a new LOD (below 126.65) this afternoon might suggest todays action was a short term double top. On the flipside a return to $130+ might also rule out the potential double top (or at least that it has already occurred).

Eyes peeled to see if there is anyone left willing to bid these up in the final hour...

2nd

brought some GM and IBN

Kaimu -

Right on the money about MER. My puts are swinging into the black. Though with banks these days, was there ever any doubt?

Shark -

I think Bush Admin. does not need to attack Iran in order to elect McCain, only to give the OK (with plausible deniability) to the Israelis.

This won't be necessary unless the (coming)smear campaign against Obama fails ...

Ain't it's a beauty... this just crossed wire:

MER is defended at Lehman Brothers (timing uncertain)

Don't you love it

Bought MON June 125 put

Does anybody play/hold solar or alternative energy? Is there a write up on the site on the subject that I missed?

Sorry, one more thing..

Does anyone see XLE breaking above 90 before December?

Any thoughts on GLD? From the daily chart, it looks like a potential inverse head and shoulder reversal with the left shoulder on 4/1, the head on 5/1 and the right shoulder on 5/29. On the other hand, the volume for the neckline break to the upside is not very strong, so this could fail. A straddle, or long strangle seems best, but no options yet.

adding more smn

Freaky LA Times article on (real) Pirates of the Caribbean:

http://tinyurl.com/3tmqtn

It sounds confined to a few "bad" islands. Maybe it's just jealousy from LA Times for being so far away! - Probably a bit of research could tell sailors where NOT to go. Smart islands and nations will step up security ...

[Bill Cara note: I can assure everybody that sailing through Bahamas is as safe as the InterContinental Waterway. In fact the Pirates of the Caribbean Captain Jack Sparrow (movie star Johnny Depp) liked it here so much in The Bahamas where they made the movies that in 2004 he paid $3.6 million for Little Hall's Pond Cay, a 35-acre deserted island in the Exumas, not far from where you told me you spent some glorious time.

I like to present facts, so I have asked for these on safety for boaters here and will publish them asap.]

BullH, thank you for Arctic Glacier.

I read last week that options and perhaps leap options on GLD and SLV are coming to market.....anyone know the exact date and where they would be trading?

Sorry to be redundent if someone already posted the info.

Thanks

Excellent article from Bennett Sedacca on the next stage of the credit crisis, which he compares to a hurricane:

http://tinyurl.com/6fut9b

mebea,

Re: solar/Alt energy plays

you can go to the Home page and find the search function. Enter ESLR, for instance, and read up on recent activity.

One of my spec plays is OPTT. Sells for cash, thin float/volatile and one of two(that I've found) publicly traded pure plays on ocean energy.

And you?

safe trading,

Stu

About a week or more ago, while they both were still in their uptrends, I called shenanigans on the SA and Spain iShares. A day later both of those trends broke decisively.

Said shares are now firmly ensconced in the crapper, shedding many, many dollar bills as they fell.

Stu - Very interesting post on OPTT. Thanks. Is their technology risk as low as implied by their investor presentation?

BTW, what's the other ocean energy play? TIA.

Good call MikeNYC. Was looking at that but failed to pull the trigger.

moab thanks for the link to :
Excellent article from Bennett Sedacca

Thx, moab.

Here's the lesson I learned: When mobs are slaughtering people in the streets, and the key industries can't get enough power, and prices for the most important export are way down, well, take a look at that chart for some weakness.

Seriosuly, more and more I am learning one thing: It is not fundamentals that are best, it is not charts that are best. When both come together, at least for me, it's a powerful feeling of recognition I get, and a more succesful chance of being right.

This goes into my rules.

Jock
Re: OPTT et al

Sorry, should've mentioned it:
Finavera FVR.V / FNVRF is a wave and wind power co.

A privately held competitor is Ocean Power Delivery (www. pelamiswave.com)

Technology risk: my take is that spar buoys are a proven design. OPTT does have a lot of suppliers; could be a detriment?
Generally, open ocean buoys have been around for a few decades (see http://tinyurl.com/53r4q3

The NDBC program has suffered a few catastrophic failures over time, yet the system seems to work.

Anyone else have further insight?

btw, Florida Atlantic University runs a subsea energy project - big turbines in the Gulf Stream. http://tinyurl.com/4ovmpq

Stu

I am long OPTT and CISQ. Not very big positions though. I am still doing more reasearch on the Canadian solar. With FSLR's largest shareholder dumping the stock I am sure it sent some shivers through other long positions in the industry.

kp84, jock

FWIW, last night I saw a very interesting program on ocean energy and they had researchers from Florida Atlantic University. It's a project off the south Florida coast, where there are strong currents. It included significant projections for supplying power to south Florida. I can't recall if it was on the Science or Discovery channel.

I have to leave for an appointment momentarily and won't return for hours. A quick check did not immediately identify the program.

OPTT - website shows an established company. They have suppliers for the "non-intelligent" parts of their systems, which avoids lots of shipping costs on stell components, and creates local jobs. Tbey have been at this for over a decade, whereas FVR seems much newer, and divides its efforts between wind and waves. OPTT seemed very solid. If price dips down to 8 again, I'll buy a bit ...

shark- sorry, out of the office all day...still holding my DCR-> for me it's a small bet on a big payoff, nothing more...DUG/SMN/QID are safer plays...added a little DAL this morning to spike the short oil trade...

vinod- thanks for bringing up IBN...are you still holding the airlines? also wondering if a nice re-entry point into ESLR is around the corner...

FED operations manual:

http://tinyurl.com/4coo7t

A good chunk of Canadian Solar at 16 could have made sombodys YEAR, that thing did so nicely. Wish I'd had the conviction.

2nd
Holding all air line and I am at breakeven point
ESLR I will enter it around 9 or under. Only they knows if new plan is working as planed
(Cost wise) also they incurred lots of cost recruiting employee. About 20% did not show up.
And there big shortage of qualified people in MA

I usually get out most of my possition + or -
nextday or same day
today I am again in into DUG/SMN/SRS/FXP
doing good on SRS

2nd
I should say I get out sameday or nextday
only in short ETF

Kevin Kerr (marketwatch) on buying GLD versus bullion, and where to store it...

http://tinyurl.com/6ryq35

SiO2,

I'm not sure why you're thanking me but you're welcome.

This one's kind of stalled until the lawsuit settles. Fortunately, we collect a huge monthly divy while waiting.

Regards

Wall Street Says -2 + -2 = 4 as Liabilities Get New Bond Math
By Bradley Keoun

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Leave it to Wall Street to profit from its own distress.

Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and four other U.S. financial companies have used an accounting rule adopted last year to book almost $12 billion of revenue after a decline in prices of their own bonds. The rule, intended to expand the ``mark-to- market'' accounting that banks use to record profits or losses on trading assets, allows them to report gains when market prices for their liabilities fall.

http://tinyurl.com/5fp84b

LEH MER & C were ALL PRICE LEADERS today, weren't they? Hmm, bet they'd like the market to take a day off tomorrow...

Here's an idea - A few more days of this and they could buy back their stock at a reasonable price.

CARACAS, Venezuela: President Hugo Chávez has used his decree powers to carry out a major overhaul of this country's intelligence agencies, provoking a fierce backlash here from human rights groups and legal scholars who say the measures will force citizens to inform on one another to avoid prison terms.

Under the new intelligence law, which took effect last week, Venezuela's two main intelligence services, the DISIP secret police and the DIM military intelligence agency, will be replaced with new agencies, the General Intelligence Office and General Counterintelligence Office, under the control of Chávez.

The new law requires people in the country to comply with requests to assist the agencies, secret police or community activist groups loyal to Chávez. Refusal can result in prison terms of two to four years for most people and four to six years for government employees.

"We are before a set of measures that are a threat to all of us," said Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, a justice on Venezuela's top court, in a rare public judicial dissent. "I have an obligation to say this, as a citizen and a judge. This is a step toward the creation of a society of informers."

The sweeping intelligence changes reflect an effort by Chávez to assert greater control over public institutions in the face of political challenges following a stinging defeat in December of a constitutional reform package that would have expanded his powers.

(shark_attack note: We've GOT to relieve this bastard of his presidency for the good of the people of VZ and for democracy in the region.)

astral25, options on GLD starting tomorrow:
http://tinyurl.com/6oa8vl

Or today, I guess, depending on which time zone you're in when you read this.

http://tinyurl.com/65gw9w

A few Cara100 crumbs...FWIW

ALOHA !!

2nd ... The article you posted by Kevin Kerr is typical of the advice you would get from a lot of US based gold promoters. One look at Kevin's photo and I know he wasn't alive back in 1980 when a car loan was 17%!

Check out some of the comments on Mr. Kerr's article down below. I always like to read those to gauge what the public is thinking!

ON IRAN
I suggest people here take a look at a US newspaper ad from the 1970s run by East Coast Power Utilities. For those who read this blog and were not alive back then it will give you some perspective on the success rate of US Foreign Policy.

Link: http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/

Now imagine what would have happened had the Shah Of Iran been in power longer and those nuclear power plants had been built. Imagine if Saddam Hussein was still our friend as he was during the Iran/Iraq War!

NO ... US Foreign Policy is built on the same shifting sands the US Peso is! Perhaps the US Peso reflects the US Foreign Policy success rate! Either way you look at it we need LESS government not MORE!

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

ABX - Upgraded to Sector Outperform @ CIBC

ADBE - Target Price Raised from $45 to $50 @ Kaufman Bros.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.