Bernard Baruch amassed a fortune as a stock market speculator and was recognized as one of Wall Street’s financial leaders in the first half of the previous century. His teachings are as valuable today as decades ago and are shared in this post.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/5rhuc9

Enjoy the read.

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change:

VIP - Target Price Raised from $44 to $45 @ HSBC

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

Today is the 3rd day in a row that someone has been selling shares of Randgold (GOLD) in premarket for $1 less than the previous day's close.

Bull Hunter,

IVAN works - gap is small but it's a stock with typically narrow ranges.... and it's gapping up while market is in red. Proof of concept :)

Israeli minister says attack on Iran ‘unavoidable’
JERUSALEM, June 6 - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks ”unavoidable” given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s deputies said on Friday.

”If Iran continues with its programme for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective,” Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
http://tinyurl.com/5fapcy

Yikes....IVAN....slope matters!
Nice base and breakout, but the slope begs caution while at the same time emitting a siren's song.

prier- thanks for the link...all of baruch's comments/observations ring true...

2nd: Looking good today.

And do you know what's funny about that viso?

Jimmy Carter recently stated (he would know as a former pres) that the Israelis have 150 deliverable nuclear weapons, enough to nuke the whole world. 150 NUKES. Truth is, and it's a damn unpopular truth, but the truth is the Israelis have had their boot on the throat of most Arab nations for upwards of 50 years now. Maybe not the Saudis. Perhaps not Egypt precisely, as we have armed those nations at least to defend themselves in conventional war. But generally speaking, contrary to the ad they used to run showing a map of the middle east asking "who's threating who" implying that it's physical size that matters, the big dog on that block is Israel and I have no doubt that when the end times come it will come from there. I have much more to say on this topic. Before I continue....I don't hate Jews. I do feel that they really are our "best friend" in the region. They have also been responsible stewards of nuke technology. But the free ride that Israel gets in American government and in the American media is undeniable and to state this truth is in no way evidence of "anti semitism". Remember, Arabs are semites too!

FYI I sold my DCR premarket for a buck 8...a nickle per share loss....God it pays to wake up early sometimes.

And one of my greatest talents in this business has been a willingness to head for the hills when things begin going wrong.

Oil goes parabolic

scaling back into DUG at 26.05...

Getting out before losses mount is definitely a talent. Too often my prowess lies in identifying winners and then buying loosers.

Eyeing TSO @ 25.33

vinod- airlines coming back to us...just not sure i want back in...LOL

sundance- that's right-> SUN/TSO/VLO giving it all back today...buying opportunities abound...

Out of DIA puts... ;)) Adding DCR.

craig- LOL...i think the parable says things improve the day after the humility lesson...

BKX falls to under 71. 75 was the line in the sand.

Looks like FXP may finally close that gap at 74.5 if things don't pick up for the bulls

TSO getting slaughtered - nice call again to Aurator

Morning, All. Is the Skype chat room still active? I've been out of town for some time now, and haven't been able to keep up with what's what, very much.

DUG- closing out half at 27.09...you have to take 4% in this market when you get it...

SMN/QID looking good-> would be really surprised if the bulls can turn it around today...we'll see...

Regional banks are getting killed today, probably because their loan portfolios are now going to deteriorate faster than the market expected. These are nice to short as they just drift lower day after day.

Am I wrong or is Call Volume - Put Volume still positive on CBOE?

And by the way, to what degree does Israel attacking Iran soon totally reframe the presidential race here, creating legitimacy for the post traumatic stress disordered John McCain (wave your arms for John McCain) and cause Obama's "out of the mideast" policy to seem ill-timed and perhaps naive? The last thing the Isaraelis want os for us to leave Iraq, and they'll start world war 3 to make sure it doesn't happen

Thought....

Wealthy families, HBB and whoever would benefit from another conflict for the US military all in bed together to bring the price of oil high?
Spin this though corporate media so the lemmings now believe we need another conflict in order to bring prices down?

far fetched idea but I can't see how the events that were released today do nothing but add propaganda for another conflict.

IEA releases info about half'n greenhouse by 2050, Morgan and Goldman stating 150 oil by July 4th (WTF?) and isreal stating the attach on iran inevitable.

Greenhouse report could be real or fabricated to help control developing countries (not BRIC) down the road. Simply put in policies on the globe to discourage others nations from trying to prosper with the use of fossil fuels. Seems like an idea to me to ration the fossil fuels out there....

Something definitely smells bad and conflict is in the air. I don't like it.

Shark,

It seems REAL ODD that all three presidential candidates spoke in front of AIPAC on mon/tues.

now this?

HMM....

diamonds are forever but what are they (isreal) holding over US heads?

Ivanhoe Energy to raise funds through Special Warrants Private Placemen

IVAN

http://tinyurl.com/3msdr7

dilution!?

writerb, SkypeStreamer is alive and well, and soon to be upgraded. http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

Also, according to Alex Jones (Kaiumu's buddy with the shiny hat) both Hillary and Obama were at the Bilderberger meeting in Chantilly, VA yesterday.

Viso, Shark-Attack,

For all the words expended discussing nuclear weapons and who-has-how-many-and-how-likely-are-they-to-use-them, there are really only two appropriate words for this situation: unfathomable insanity. Power not only corrupts, it is making our leaders mad as well. How can any sane person even for a moment contemplate incinerating another nation... or for that matter the entire planet?

Apparently, Niels Bohr asked Robert Oppenheimer about the atomic bomb, "Is it big enough?" He wondered if it was so terrible that it would make war unthinkable. Oppenheimer replied, "No, but it will get to be."

Seems a sadly naive exchange in light of the subsequent decades, doesn't it?

2nd
first time doing very good
I had 30 contract of oex put

vinod- well done!

SUN-> opening a position at 41.58...

onlineaces,

A couple of days ago, you indicated you sold your long VIX position. I want to sell the my Nov $24 calls and see them bid at $2.80, ask $3.20. Both bid and ask size is 700+ contracts, obviously MMs. Trading volume today is 0.

If I choose to sell my 10 contracts NOW, I would have to hit the bid, effectively loosing $400 on the transaction because of 40c spread. That's a loss of $800 RT. This is obviously not a short term trading vehicle.

I was wondering what investment vehicle you choose to trade volatility. Thanks in advance for your response.

SiO2, I've joined the chat, but no one seems to be home. Can you see me there? I just got a message that SKype has not been able to send my message - however, it looks to me as if I'm in the room.

Maybe I need to download an update?

wb, I don't see you. Please make sure nexalogic is in your contacts and send me a hi or indicate your id.

Does anyone think that yesterday's move, the day before the all important jobs numbers, was a manufactured rally to blunt the reaction blow? If we had sold off from lower levels we probably would have broken the important 1370 line on a weekly close. As is they can defend that level today and regroup for Monday.

writersblock,

I've found that for some reason, sometimes it won't let me join the chat. I have to get nexalogic to invite me in. I really don't understand it, but I also tend to run it behind my restrictive work firewall, so that may have something to do with it.

moab

Interesting point my friend!

Moab: Last night:

http://tinyurl.com/5t4kfr

1375 confirms H&S neckline breached.

SiO2, Just sent you some messages, but Skype says it can't deliver those, as well. I'm not behind a firewall, so I dont' understand why it's not working - was working before i went out of town. I can see you, and everyone else, looks as if I'm in the room, and having chat with you, but nothing happens.

Nukes -

US airforce brass fired for transporting "loose nukes" ... Israeli transport minister calling airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites "inevitable" ...

Has nuclear policy been delegated to the transportation department?

Last time I checked, thousands of Russian warheads still aimed at the US.

Ho hum, ho hum ....

I think I need to download an update.. will do so, and try again, later. Thanks for the help

Unthinkable? Given enough nukes, enough countries getting them and enough time, the unthinkable becomes the inevitable.

John Lennon was right and did almost singlehandedly end the Vietnam war and was in fact assassinated to prevent his further involvement in the Cold War.

RE: DUG and war with Iran: what do you suppose will happen to the price of oil and gas if this thing continues to ratchet up in the next few days and weeks? Suspect it's possible we could see an embargo out of Iran, etc, not to mention what will happen if this thing actually gets off the ground. Long DUG, but reconsidering.

Bingo Moab, They've been doing that for a year now. Same deal for Ben's strong dollar speech the other day, all part of the same manipulation.

writersblock,

Oil could easily go to $200...Everyone seems to think it will anyway...When "everyone" believes that a price target is inevitable at a point in the future, the price tends to get there much sooner.

2nd: Keeping tabs on CAF?

moab, re "Does anyone think that yesterday's move, the day before the all important jobs numbers, was a manufactured rally to blunt the reaction blow?"

My thoughts exactly which is why I want to get rid of my vix calls. Yesterday's rally was inexplicable.

During the last few months, I have also noticed financials being pumped up close to options expiration.

Nukes -

In US media, almost NO coverage of last year's UN non-proliferation conference, wherein third world criticized the nuclear powers for no progress in dismantling their arsenals.

The arrangement was: nuclear powers dismantle and refrain from further development, in return for which non-nuclear countries staying that way.

US is merrily developing tactical nuclear "bunker-busters". There's now no credibility to the US "nuclear umbrella". So, of COURSE non-nuclear countries are developing their own "nuclear options".

With nukes on all sides (Pakistan, Iraq, Israel) even a lunatic president in Iran would do so (sorry, IS doing so!)

News of each new step can roil psychology of world markets !

Remember - GM admitted being long oil. Perhaps they're right?

I know that there has likely been manipulation for at least a year but yesterday takes the cake. Usually trade before such news would be a trickle as no one wants to take a position in front of the news. A trader at minyanville was saying that many of his friends are just walking away from their trading stations as the price movements are inexplicable.

If this downfall today holds up, the Asian markets will fall like a rock Monday.

Excellent point Jock. US is threatening half the middle east so the reaction of these nations is to try and defend themselves. All the talk of "on to Damascus" in 2003 was the height of irresponsibility. If Iran was nuclear, there is no way the US would be trying to push them around and thus the arms race is on again.

Gold bumping up against $900

ALOHA !!

Oil and Swiss Francs rocket up!

Hummmm ... look at MER tank ... now below $40! Are those employees selling?

Yesterday someone here posted on offshore banks and ex-pats and "exit taxes". Who wants to exit the US? The way US Banks are collapsing all I want to do is have my money exit the USA not me! Would the US Congress ever write a law forbidding Americans from moving their funds to safer non-US Banks outside the USA? Y-E-S! Would the US CONgress ever confiscated gold? Y-E-S! These people have no respect for your hard work or your personal property! Welcome to SERFDOM AMERICAN STYLE!!

ON ISRAEL
I agree with Shark's comments on Israel. Not only do we have Israel working against us to keep us and our money locked down in the Middle East but we also have BinLaden also working his best to keep the USA in the Middle East. How strange to have both our number one ally(Israel)and our number one enemy(BinLaden)working together to keep chipping away at the US EMPIRE until it collapses. This is typical US FOREIGN POLICY at work! The US defense contractors, the Israelis and BinLaden all WIN!! Everyone WINS but the US Taxpayer ... The US Banks WIN and who loses thanks to the US FED? The US Taxpayer! Anyone seeing a common denominator here? Who is it that keeps losing? Apparently the US Taxpayer is the only entity in Washington DC without any representation! Our Founding Fathers fought a revolution based on "taxation without representation"!

Billay and Obama attend the Bild-a-berger meetings and CFR ... all pre-requisites to even be considered a legitimate contender for any major US political office! Meanwhile, Ron Paul can't even spell Bild-a-berger and he's proud of it!

craig- yes...based on QT's comment above, may re-enter CAF monday...

Bailed on two miners that were dead money: PLM Polymet and ECUXF ECU silver. Most all others up.

Jul 38 Calls yesterday on QID are up 27%.

FXP and SKF lit afterburners.

As crude soars and US$ plunges, worden/media general metals stocks are:

silver up 2.05%
gold up 1.30%
industrial metals (-copper) up 0.56%

copper, aluminum and steel are down ...

anyone considering dgp here?

DUG- exiting the remainder at 27.72...

Hopping into SRS here. Sold out of the QID July $33 Calls from yesterday.

DGP + 5.08%. I us it to boost or cut Gold while holding the core long. Been holding 1K DGP and happy today.

Been expecting a USD collapse into the mid 60's and I think we have started that. Gold 1300 to 1650 by Dec. If I followed the cycles right, Gold is in phase early 2 where it is somewhat influenced by the USD but trades on it's own demand.

ALOHA !!

Thanks Aurator! Finally now ECU will go up! HA!!

Kaimu: You are correct! Will buy it back if the chart ever turns around. For a small fee I will sell the PMI. ;)

ALOHA !!

MAN ... look at that Swissy fly!!!

Added Endeavour Silver after chatting with the CEO at the MS. EXK.

Is there a US Dollar index like $INDU ot $COMPX? tia

Intel Said to Be Facing Antitrust Investigation

Shark: I'll bet you can fill your moped tank now!

$USD at stockcharts.com (prior day)
DXY at bigcharts.com (future spot price 20m delay)

Need a free real time chart of the US Dollar index.

QT, I'm convinced that if I sell FXP right now, it will shoot way up, and if I hold it will drop back to the low 60s. Any guidance?

ALOHA !!

Talking about the Swissy also the only real money GOLD. If you look at ten year chart of the BEST fiat currencies which I consider are CHF, AUD, CDN ... If the Euro were not a ZONE I would vote that or if Germany still had a MARK I would vote that also!

All of these currencies diverged(or started to diverge)from GOLD priced in USDX in 2003. What event happened in 2003 that would have caused that? Hummmm??? I wonder ... Perhaps "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" meant the creation of the US PESO!

Link: http://tinyurl.com/6pqacl

I am happy to be in CHF, AUD and CDN ...

Anyone else eyeing massive puts on IYT?

Interesting that the comment from Mofaz creeps up almost exactly 1 year after the last one...

http://tinyurl.com/6zyakd

Some interesting comments.

Chickenpookie,

Fill my tank? With what? I didn't make any money this week. I lost less than a hundred dollars. I need to borrow a $20 spot from 2nd ave, or perhaps even better, go out siphoning this weekend:)

Made it out of puts on ABK, MBI, BKX, the detonating bolides, without getting slammed by the PPT like I did in March.

Puts on LEH under water as Hank's buddies are busy. Watch them dilute the heck out of it and have the share price rise as the PPT adds staircase support just to kill the shorts.

Focusing more on high-liquidity options. The BKX B/S spread was huge.

Hey guys,
I'm tuned in today because my gardens are in and the lawn is caught up and it's way too hot out to be outside. I've been paying some attention to the market. It seems as if the wheels have come off since Memorial day and now it's careening out of control.

How about that price of oil? This could be the blowoff top that CT called for. 13 dollar increase in two days. Crazy!! But look at DIG and DUG. The oil stocks initially surged but now are down as high oil hurts everyone.

Congrats to anyone who has been making money in this craziness. I'm keeping my powder dry for now until I feel more confident. The IYT puts look good though as do puts on USO and puts on the QQQQ's. But I doubt if I'll jump into any today. The weekend is just too long these days to hold anything except long term bets.

Rob.

looking to buy into APWR right now. this is the FSLR of 08/09. you heard it here first.

Allen

I feel that way too. But the thing is in my case, is always seems to come true. ;-)

My thoughts are this.

Colin Twiggs: [Long Term] Reversal below 12450 would confirm another test of primary support at 11750.

Bill: A while back see a correction eventually to 10000.

Other TA people tend to all say the same thing "downwards" long term.

You gutted it out this long, what's a few more days or weeks. But if it does fall back into the 60's and you have the extra cash, why not buy more and lower your cost basis for the next run up. That is what I did on SRS last night. It lowered mine BIG time.

We both have been reminded that FXP can reach the mid 70s again and both of us are in the same school of thinking, this market is heading downwards. Yesterday's big run up as moab noted could of been staged to soften today's blow. Sounds good. And think what Asia will do Monday when they see our big drop if it holds up till closing.

But if a another fall back would just kill you, then set a stop limit or trail stop at what you would consider to be an acceptable maxium loss in this case.

Hope this helps a little. Maybe the other really succesful traders here can add to this.

See I told you the other day you would be in the HOT seat Friday. [Note:my seat is only getting warm at this point]

This song is for you...

http://tinyurl.com/5tr88j

If you pull the trigger let me know.

Kaimu,

Keep your head down.

HONOLULU (AP) - The U.S. military says it has intercepted a ballistic missile near Hawaii in a test.
The sea-based test Thursday was the military's first since an errant satellite was shot down earlier this year.

A target was fired from a decomissioned amphibious assault ship about 100 miles off the island of Kauai. It was a Scud-like missile with a range of a few hundred miles.

The USS Lake Erie fired two interceptor missiles at the target. It was shot down in its final seconds of flight about 12 miles above the Pacific Ocean.

The Lake Erie is a Navy cruiser based at Pearl Harbor. In February, the ship shot down a U.S. spy satellite in the Aegis defense program's first real-world mission.

QT, thanks for your ideas.

You're right that the negatives are still there. Plus Bill has been right on his major calls as along as I have been following his wonderful site, and I would guess he'll be right on the DOW 10,000 call. Again, it's a matter of timing.

This has been a strange investment year so far. I made money on RRPIX, TBT, lost a bit on NOT.V and GXEXF (but will hold these), lost a bit on BTU and AIG, and earned a bit on some short term PM trades. I'm going to hang on with FXP for a while.

"The Labor Department reported that unemployment rose to 5.5 percent in May, the largest monthly jump in 22 years, since 1986. We have been warning that the Labor Departments estimates of new jobs created over the past several years were far off the mark, and this number attests to that. Labor reported this morning that non-farm payrolls fell 49,000, when in reality the job cuts were closer to 266,000. Again, phony numbers coming at markets to try and soothe nerves. The Birth/Death adjustment in May was 217,000. In other words, the Labor Department reduced the number of actual job losses by 217,000 to come up with the 49,000, by creating a figure out of their wild imaginations that new businesses probably, might have, could have created 217,000 new jobs in May. Nonsense. The financial situation is deteriorating and we would not be surprised by an all-out stock market crash before year end. Raise cash. Borrowing is going to get harder and harder now that the bond insurers lost their AAA rating." flash from RM.

Allen

I did well in Jan/Fed especially with FXP, but Mar-May has SUCKED! Mainly underwater..STUCK..

I'll be watching the volume #s of FXP as it approaches 78, to see if you go for the brass ring.

FYI

A backyard mechanic that I know who works for the railroads [CSX] told me the shipping volume for them is waaaaaaaaaaay down. Another sign of a slowing economy.

Oil is up $9.55. If it reaches $10 gain for the day, the NYMEX will close the futures trading.

oil- so colin twiggs was correct in calling for a sharp upward spike...the other half of his call is for a sharp correction...the question, of course, is how far and when...

As soon as I unload DCR; to $99.

SiO2, I just downloaded and installed the update. Still no response in the chat room when I say hello, also, no response when I appear to be chatting with you. Do you see me? I'm writersblock2 on Skype

I have had an order to buy DCR at .85. In the move up to 137+ in crude the price of DCR would not move below .88. MM manipulation.

From Trader Mike's page:

"I enjoyed last night’s Atlanta MTA meeting with Dennis Gartman. He talked about his history and some of his trading rules in a very entertaining fashion. I don’t think I’ll ever forget the way he told us not to average down on a trade."

“Don’t ever, ever, ever, never, ever, never, never, ever, never, never, ever… never average down on a losing trade.”

I defer to Mike and 2nd, but guys I think DCR is a bad bet with oil up where it is...It's unlikely to come "into the money" and is likely to "expire worthless"

Am I missing anything?

wb, "writersblock2 is not currently online". There are 88 people in the chat. Please go over the trouble shooting section of the website, and make sure you meet the platform requirements, and try leaving the chat. My contact info is there too.

Gartman's short gold call not looking so good in the s/t.

Check out the 12 month chart on the bank
National City [NCC].

OUCH!

buying dgp

jeremy

Didn't you load up on FXP yesterday?
Is so...GREAT move!

Any plans for the upcoming Bank Holiday in the USA?

I was in Swaziland at a tennis tournament during the post 9/11 hiatus. When trading resumed my long position on NOK saved my margin account from annihilation.

Volume is running pretty low on the indexes. Does anyone think this could be a set-up for the next couple of weeks into expiration?

Tempt us into going long Oil, Gold and shorting the USD and Stocks only to reverse the trade over the next two weeks and crush us again??

What do you all think?

Look at all the Fed bailout banks and brokerages. Their prices have been drifting lower since last month's expiration enticing put buyers to load up.

I don't have anything to base it on but it feels like a trap and then they'll spike stocks higher next week on the "good" Lehman news next week.

The other variable is the fact that Hillary is dropping out officially this weekend so the race for the president is on. How does the market usually fare during election years after the two candidates have squared off?

And of course there's the Iran rumors as another huge variable.

Rob.

qt,

yep.

gold will drop some more but im still going to load up on dgp

I'm calling for prison sentences.

Prison for anyone who lied while processing and approving mortgages.

Prison for anyone who oversaw a corporate conspiracy to underwrite phony mortgages(Mazillo et al).

Prison for the Wall Street execs who knowingly repackaged and sold phony mortgage-securities.

Prison for any ratings agency, both underlings and superiors who knowingly mis-rated any corporation or debt asset.

Lock these bastards up and take their stuff in the name of the People!

There goes S&P 1375! Now the Fed will get to see the magnitude of the mess they have created.

I wish I had a firework in the house.

I know there have been several discussions here regarding gold in safe deposit boxes and the government's seizing of it. I just found an interesting discussion on the subject at Mish's blog.

http://tinyurl.com/5r4wvy

I'm trying HOD at $7.6. Surely I'll make something as everyone holds their breath for $150 oil?

Perfect timing, should only be a few more seconds before I hit my stop!

He found who is guilty!

U.S. Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey ruffled the feathers of more than a few key Democratic lawmakers late Thursday, solidifying his earlier stance that he will not form a national task force to investigate the mortgage crisis — particularly, mortgage fraud. Fraud in mortgages allegedly has run rampant from borrowers all the way through to Wall Street investors, helping fuel a global financial crisis that many economists say has pushed the United States into a recession.

I don't see low volume. SPY is trading above average daily volume and IWM is close to it. Volume picked up after the AIG news.

Viso, et. al. - Avanti Mining

I spoke with SVP/IR,Cheryl Martin, who confirmed that the "Silver Wheaton model" (of acquiring moly streams from copper producers) has been set aside. Given producers' high expectations for future moly prices, they were unwilling to forward-sell their moly production.

Instead, Avanti has been concentrating on acquisition of a major resource which is predominantly moly. She feels that their dream-team management and board will be able to finance their mine more quickly than has Adnac.

She also suggested that their target has infrastructure available and high grade ore. She believes the deal is imminent.

After the deal, Avanti plans to switch their listing from CNQ to main TSX.

One negative is an overhang of 48M August, '09 warrants priced at .10

Down less than $3 on FXP($78 cost)...hoot!

I plan on holding it until something changes the long term down trend. I wish I would have doubled down in the low 60's

With this many people caught in the bull trap from yesterday, the last hour has potential to get seriously ugly..........

boss

Are you going to ride it up for profits or bail out near your basis?

Jock
I agree with you. My sources are telling me that Avanti is negotiating with General Moly and like you said the deal is imminent.

Do you mean Adanac Moly (AUA.to)

Moab,
I see that. The news came out just after I posted. If that probe widens it could have a huge ripple effect.

What do you think?

We go down and stay down for awhile or

is this the blowoff spike in oil and the dollar and stocks start climbing from here?

My feeling is the pumping isn't done yet, not until closer to or after the election. And you know they're not going to let LEH go the way of Bear unless Goldman wants to absorb them. So, we'll likely have "good" news for LEH that will send their shares spiking next week and carry the market with it.
Fantasy or possibility?

Rob.

chf way up on the eur and the usd. the other carry, jpy is up on the usd. sell the eur/jpy now, it's turning.

Kaimu

I posted the article on the exit tax yesterday.
It shows we are virtual slaves, owned by the STATE and have to pay to remove our shackles if we want to leave. So much for a free and democratic Amerika.

You said you just want to get your money out of the USA..well let me tell you the attitude of our fearless leaders in Washington is changing regarding offshore accounts as well. Current law
FISA forces you to disclose you offshore account with draconian penalties if you fail to file. The attitude is now changing...recently a US Senator said if you hold an offshore account you must be up to no good.That's the attitude. My guess is that the IRS may start tightening the screws on those with bank accounts offshore. How do you spell audit?

There is a drive to force financial reporting by any bank which has US customers (W-9 forms) and also limit investments in any US related companies and financial instruments.Swiss banks are experiencing renewed pressure to comply with US desires to open the books.

Euro zone countries are doing the same. Remember the Germans just paid a stoole millions for a list of Lichenstein bank accounts.

If the sh*t hits the fan sometime down the road here in the US, currency controls will come during the night...you will wake up and learn that the US president has signed an executive order freezing money transfers both in and out of the country. So much for the offshore account.
What good will it do then? Could you cash in you allocated PerthMint certificate and have the money wired to your account in the US? Who knows?
If the NSA monitors all electronic transfers via the BIS electronic clearing house in Belguim...they can find out what you are doing.

Maybe the mattress, Smith and Wesson and a big dog provide more safety than the offshore account...

QT, my finger is twitching closer to the sell button, but I know that as soon as I sell, all heck will break loose and it will be back at $110. Right?

Haven't studied the news yet but have to bet that the powers that be will try to prop up the markets until the election. However, I would bet it is like holding a finger in the dike if masses of people start selling. That is why they jawbone so much. Confidence is everything! Scandals will break confidence and they can't be covered up forever.

The Russel 2000 has not broken the trendline yet and in fact has had serious accumulation since breaking resistance at 735. That is giving me pause even thought the Dow and S&P have broken down. Bank stocks are dying a painful death and oil is up $10 so I think confidence is near the snapping point.

It is a nice day to be short banks and long miners! WaMu is on life support down 15%.

Viso -

She compared their target property to Adnac's in a way that suggested Adnac was not the target. She made no reference to General Moly, other than to say she had personally invested in General Moly before joining Avanti. Still, every industry is a small club. You may be onto something. Who knows?

What opinions do we have about what is likely to happen to TBT next week? I followed my plan of selling TBT yesterday after two days of gains, and I am now thinking of switching into shorting TLT, which is a safer play long-term. But with the dismal employment report today, I am thinking that the market expectations for another rate cut may persist for a few more days, and so TBT may fall again on Monday. In addition, the current report should dispel all hopes about the stock market recovery, and so the next week should also be, overall, a down week, and hence TBT should fall next week. But then, if oil does not come down next week, the market might be concerned that it will be hard for the Fed to make another rate cut. So if the market goes up next week for some strange reason and oil does not fall much, then TBT will be up strongly.

2nd_ave: what does your intuition tell you about the market and TBT on Monday?

DavidV

BUstudent, thanks for the interesting link. I could not believe what happened in California. Blew my mind....
I think Turk is right--the only answer is diversification in terms of storage.
If Kaimu's around, I would be curious to know what he thinks about this statement from Turk, since gold is held because it is no one's liability, among other things.
"Lastly, regarding the Perth Mint reference, I would just like to point out that one does not own physical metal when they own a certificate. They instead own a liability of the firm issuing the certificate, which is why the Perth Mint certificates come with the guarantee of the government of Western Australia. Each individual has to decide whether that guarantee is sufficient incentive for them to own the Mint's liability instead of actual physical metal. In other words, a "certificate" is not a "storage receipt". Unfortunately, many people do not understand the difference.

There goes S&P 1370. PPT having coffee?

Allen

You're getting close Allen... can you hear the music start to play in your head?

"make or break...win or lose..that's the chance you take when the heat is on you. The heat is on"

LOL... I know the feeling....earlier today I put a stop limit @ 84 on 1/2 of my SRS holding just in case it fell back. Guess what...it fell back to 84 then took off... now it is at 86.02
[*&#$%@!]. If I didn't... it would of fell back to 81... LOL...It sucks but this is the market.

adding dyy-- 200% upside oil.

QT--

I used to have similar things happen, and I switched my near-even-dollar stop-loss orders (ie. "84.00") to 83.98 or 83.97; I give up a fraction but I've been burned much less frequently, making up for any .02 and .03 small losses.

Finger Lakes -

I agree about the "good news" for the banks. There are already the speculation that LEH will raise 5 billion in equity sales from Saudi investors. But, long term, I don't know if even that will make much of a dent in the derivative unwind that these companies need to suffer through.

I'm thinking about closing the puts I have at a profit now, waiting for the upswing, and buying more even money puts at the new stock strike price.

I don' know about the trap based on the Iran rumors. If anything it will steel the resolve of long commodity positions. Given that the dollar has tanked on the outrageous spending on our current conflict, I can't see investors viewing another conflict on another front as something that will curb inflation fears. Combine that with any bailout (i.e. more "liquidity" into the fold) and investors will continue to push up demand for oil and PM's as a hedge against inflation.

I personally like January puts. It lets the election pass and gets some of the feints and manipulations out of equity prices.

I can't take the volatility right now. What I know, even from the manipulated FED data and corporate jawboning, is that the extent of the recession we are in has not been fully revealed. So my time line has become quarterly. The damage is there. It's like a dead body under someone's house; it can be hidden only for so long before someone notices the stench.

Just my opinion.

TBT seems to be holding here. It trades between 68 and 75, so I scaled in a little and will add more if we get to 68.

I have no idea how Gartman doesn't average down....does he always know the bottom?

Sept 95 calls GLD.

Jagvocate

Thanks I will give it a try...

QT- yep, I am going to hold FXP for a while. I have 10% in FXP and 90% cash not knowing what to do today. So, I think I am going to hit the swimming pool and tan for a few hours. I am glad I got out of my DIA calls yesterday. My plan was to buy DIA puts today if the market went up.

boss

Sounds like a plan... I am stuck at 84 with FXP... pick me up on the way up. This has been a painfl trade for me. I WANT something back for my pain and suffering. I plan to take it higher also.

Don't forget to oil up [SPF 10,000]

David- I'm holding on to QID/SMN, sold the DUG earlier, and hoping vindication arrives for FXP holders on Monday...under the circumstances, no interest in TBT right now...

Good point astral...And if our government intends to confiscate, who'se to stop them from putting electrodes on your balls and zapping you until you sign the paperwork?

FXP - amazing momentum today - on days with violent swings, FXP can often add $1 to the direction in the last couple minutes of trading - $77-78 may be in the cards for today....

mebea,
My thinking was the Iran rumors would pull more people into the long side, allowing HB&B to dump their long positions.

My theory is the same with the banks. Just after last month's expiration HB&B sold calls while buying puts. And today and next week they'll be reversing that as the banks start climbing again.

Long-term everything is going down with the Depression we're going to have but like you point out, until everyone states that the recession is here and still getting worse I think the market is more prone to rallying than sinking further.

To have an orderly election they need the dollar to be stronger to bring commodities down and boost stocks. Do they have the power to accomplish it? Can they keep the shell game going until after the election? My guess is yes and they'll do anything to accomplish it.

Rob.

And LEH will be the catalyst. It may come out with news as early as the Sunday morning shows.

Rob.

Shark,
What do you think about that prediction? Or do you still think LEH is going down?

Rob.

re gartman's rules-> i would keep in mind that a) any set of rules will suit a certain kind of personality perfectly...and that may not be you, and b) there must a provision somewhere about breaking the rules, right...and you may be in the minority that always breaks the rules and does fine...'know thyself' would have to be the rule that overrides all other rules, IMO...

[Bill Cara note: Gartman's Rules don't, for the most part, work for me. For instance, trading is not gambling, and averaging down is not a kind of foolish double down tactic. Averaging down could be part of a broader accumulation strategy where a trader is in fact trying to average a low position cost. so Gartman's words of "never, ever, ever, never (blah blah) average down" is just over-the-top crapola from a gambler and not a trader as far as I am concerned.]

Well, I did short TLT just now, to have a "consolation" prize on Monday if the market goes up and my large QID position goes down the drain again. :) I also bought some June $109 puts on USO -- $12 gain in two days is extreme.

DavidV

I think the MBIA/Ambac downgrade may something to do with this selloff. They waited on this until the public lost interest but for those in the know it is huge. From Naked Capitalism blog:

An institutional investor passed along these initial estimates of the damage that the Street will take from the downgrade of MBIA and Ambac, Bear in mind that these presumably do not become operative until Moody's joins S&P in deeming both concerns' insurance subs to be AA.

These loss forecasts are only those to banks and brokerage firms, and exclude any impact on smaller financial institutions or investors such as pension funds holding paper guaranteed by the two monolines:

I received a note today putting exposure within the banks at $600 billion. Barclay’s is estimating losses of $143 billion on a markdown—I think Moody’s has to follow suit for it to kick in at that level—UBS puts it at $203 billion, and Oppenheimer says Citi, Merrill, and UBS will write down somewhere between $40 and 70 billion among the three of them—a wide spread, I agree.

http://tinyurl.com/559adq

2nd_ave: why do you have no interest in TBT? Is it a short-term lack of interest because you think that Monday will be a down day? Or do you think the medium-term trend in yields will be down after today's job report?

Thanks,

DavidV

Anyone buying BC yet? The buy alert was >5% more than where it's currently sitting.

Thinking of doubling down on GE.... works for my blackjack game.

david- i think you're in good position, then...there's at least an outside chance we get the drop we've all been waiting for next week, whereas i would be very, very surprised to see a bounce on monday-> who's going to be buying, the bulls who got trapped thursday? i don't think so...

Jock; what about the Chu moly property of V.TTQ
I could not find a quote for Avanti in Canada.

Cancelled all PM stops - let's see where this phenomenon takes us.

Lehman just folded. Whoever was defending it all day gave up and it lost over a dollar in half an hour.

This from seeking alpha. The level of greed and dishonesty people are capable of is astounding.

http://tinyurl.com/3ptdcz

closing out of SRS and buying APWR. They beat estimates of .03 EPS and $23 Million by .06 and $10 Million, respectively.

It is a $650Million company and just projected at least $350 Million in revenues for 2008 with EPS of $1.04 to $1.34. These projections do not include contracts from wind turbines, which is what they are getting into in the 3rd quarter. They announced that they have a backlog $700 Million in contracts already signed. Total production capacity translates to $1.1 Billion in annual sales with production expected to ramp up significantly over the next year or so.

I did a quick estimate of EPS on sales of $700 Million by 2009 and came to roughly $2.00 on the low end, which is significantly ahead of what analysts are estimating. Other companies in this sector trade around 20 times 2009 earnings, so if this traded at similar multiples I think this could be at least a $40 stock by the end of 2009. And this is assuming that they don’t increase production capacity.

TBT- david, it's exactly b/c of the outside chance it all sells off on monday...of course, bonds could join the sell-off, but as you pointed out a few days ago, flight to safely more likely to be the knee jerk rxn, and who knows, maybe even more emergency rate cuts...if we have nothing but headlines about a sell-off over the weekend, then i'll change my mind...whereas continued emphasis on recovery in the second half makes the sell-off more likely...all IMHO...

Down spike to setup pop up open on Monday?

what about a gap down to open monday?

SUF calls Jul 7.5 1000 traded?

(no offense intended to anyone, but it's good to see posts about a bounce on monday...IMO, just makes it more likely we gap down)...in any case, fwiw, i'm just not interested in selling any short positions right now...)

2nd-

Maybe.

I gave up playing for the crash a long time ago. I do have swing shorts on that I am holding for capitulation, but I'm not adding. Had to cover my WaMu short as 15% return just today is too good to be true.

Considering Lehman just got dumped it looks like even the pros are spooked.

Here comes the spike down...

I expect TLT to rise as the market gets hammered into wherever it's going next.

Have F Jun 5 put up 433%.

Craig,

I think his methodology is similar to that of Jesse Livermore documented in ROSO in which he only adds to winning positions. I am pretty sure thats what Jesse did. It seems its just a momentum-based philosophy. There is a high probability I could be wrong though.

Question?

I placed a small order for GE @30.02 when it was being bidded at 30.03.... then it dropped all the way to 30.01 then to 30.00 for the last 60 seconds or so but my order never got filled. Anyone know why?

That is what we call a Bull Trap. Dow off 404.

Well I took a nibble on some LEH October calls. Got the 34's at 4.95. I'm counting on the fact that Bernacke and Paulson can't let another Bear happen before the election unless they want zero confidence.

I wanted to add some USO puts but am already holding DUG calls so I think I'll let them ride. DUG works great when oil prices really spike because then even the oil stocks get hammered.

2nd,

If the LEH news turns out to be bad and they don't save it from Bear's fate then I can see a gap down. Otherwise I see a steady rise after the LEH pop, at least for next week.

We'll have to wait for the Sunday news cycle to start and see. It would be really crazy if we gap down on LEH but then march higher after they announce their "news".

Rob.

QT,
It has to do with routing. They do not have to fill your order unless another player on your ticket routing wants to sell their shares to you. Everyone traded around you.

Support is 11700-11750. That's 450 pts down from here.

Flipping coins...what are the chances we get another 400+ down day on monday and not an oversold bounce off a 394 down Friday?

I think we see the low of the year soon but not all at once.

Look for Ben to say something, Paulson to pull a rabbit out of his ass, or some rediculous manipulation from somewhere, maybe Europe or Asia.

Never mind it got filled. Just took the Scottrade computer system a while I guess. If GE bounces up Monday then I'll sell for a quickie profit.

-Allen you are close my friend... pre market Monday you will know for sure. You may wake up and it has gapped up several points.

Everyone have a good weekend!

ALOHA !!

Denny ... James Turk is right and I have said many times that the PMCP is a "warehouse receipt" a receipt for future "allocated", should you desire to pay for fabrication. You can't get something for nothing so when you forego the choice of allocated metal and do not pay fabrication costs to take possession for the advantage of not having to pay storage costs then you add counterparty risk.

GoldMoney has risk as well. GoldMoney does not own the vaults they store your gold in. It says so right on their website that VIA MAT owns the vaults. When you buy into GoldMoney you buy the counterparty risk of VIA MAT. GoldMoney offers only the insurance of Lloyds Of London, which in the 1990s already filed bankruptcy once. So now you take on that counterparty risk. Why does James Turk act as if GoldMoney has no liability just because he prints a list of serial numbers? Please ask him to print financials along with those serial numbers! You also have to assume some governmental risk with Switzerland and England the two countries where GoldMoney's vaults are. Will those governments confiscate gold in a fiat monetary emergency? The British have already sold most of their gold and neither Britian or Switzerland have gold in the ground! The Western Australia government has never confiscated gold and in fact currently manufactures gold currency and promotes it throught he PERTH MINT. I personally visited one of the richest gold mining regions in the World in Jan 2008 when I visited Kalgoorlie and stood on the edge of the Super Pit. Newmont Australia and all the gold in the ground of Western Australia are the supply sources for the PERTH MINT. What is GoldMoney's supply source? The PERTH MINT is in the business of manufacturing and storing gold and silver currency and bullion. Can GoldMoney say that? No, because GoldMoney is only in the business of storing other people's gold in other people's vaults ... vaults that GoldMoney does not own. At least the PERTH MINT owns its vaults. I made my decision and I trust the PERTH MINT and the Australian government more.

Whether you personally hold gold in your sock drawer or at GoldMoney or at the PERTH MINT you assume some risk. I believe under conditions of civil unrest that the least safest place for your gold is in your own sock drawer, especially if you live in a McMansion. I always believe in diversifying risk ... so I do! Keep a little everywhere.

I have allocated and unallocated metals at the PERTH MINT and I have my own personal serial numbers. Not even GoldMoney can offer you your own personal serial numbers. Which serial numbers on that list are yours? I think that is safer than GoldMoney!

2nd
Could not figure out what to do with my oex put
Some guy here told me to take the money and other were saying wait until 4.p.m
I should have asked your advice.
I got out early. If I stay until 4.00p.m would have made 30K instead of 10K
Next time will asked expert if I have correct setup
out of FXP and DUG lost in DUG as always
do not have anything but will get back in airline monday
Thanks, and I am learning

stktrader

Interesting...can say I fully understand it. Will have to think on it.

No kidding, a great big steel-toothed bull-trap

Kaimu, thanks. Even my sock drawer is risky because most of my socks have holes in them. Maybe after the lovin' the miners got today I can buy some new ones.

Agree with 2nd, bond shorts got creamed today. Too risky to short bonds at this point. Not yet, not yet, IMO.

Sold SSO calls and bought SDS calls late yesterday. All these SDS calls were taken from me around 3:55PM today. Was not really counting on a major drop, but played it just because today was Friday, and this has been the easy play of the year, about 20 out of 24.

Vinod,

10K seems like a great return for one bet depending on how much you were risking. It's impossible to get the timing perfect, at least for me, so I wouldn't sweat selling it early. If you would have held the opposite could have happened and you'd be down 10K. Nice move!!

Rob.

I think we can use the community chat as a contrarian indicator. The top on May 19th also had the lowest number of comments - 42.

Off the road in time to catch the close.

Sold (closed) a number of July 29 GE puts at the close.

Unfornately, had an unfilled order to sell VLO July puts, but there will be other days.

Noted grain & ag related indexes like RJA, JJA, JJG & DBA held up very well in a tough day. Bill's "watch them like a hawk" non financial nasdaq list all bleeding as well as the retailer list he mentioned awhile ago.

Si02---glad to see those SDS calls you mentioned this a.m. on skype worked out well! ;)

Don Coxe interview from yesterday ,for any that might be interested.
http://tinyurl.com/5thcgl

Vinod, when did you put the position on? I vaguely recall, was it yesterday you said you had 30 puts?

Anyway, I really would be a hypocritical sob if I didn't congratulate you. Obviously holding over the weekend would have been an unreasonable risk, and anticipating short covering would have been natural. And bro, you could have robbed a Brinks truck and not made 10K:)

Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYRE
Order Number:F06BRWBZ Details Filled at $7.20
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYRE
Order Number:F06BVDJG Details Filled at $7.90
Sell to Close Put 3 Contracts of -OEYRE
Order Number:F06CDGKN Details Filled at $9.00
Sell to Close Put 3 Contracts of -OEYRE
Order Number:F06BPGRS Details Filled at $7.50
Sell to Close Put 4 Contracts of -OEYSH
Order Number:F06BPMLJ Details Filled at $22.00
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYSH
Order Number:F06BRMQQ Details Filled at $21.30
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYSH
Order Number:F06BVJQH Details Filled at $22.40
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYSH
Order Number:F06CDKNL Details Filled at $23.80
Sell to Close Put 3 Contracts of -OEYSE
Order Number:F06BPZNQ Details Filled at $14.90
Sell to Close Put 3 Contracts of -OEYSE
Order Number:F06BQZDQ Details Filled at $14.30
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYSE
Order Number:F06BVQSB Details Filled at $15.20
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEYSE
Order Number:F06CDRLX Details Filled at $16.10

ECU.TO: do we have a double bottom forming in it? I have increased my position in this stock by 50% yesterday, figuring it fell far enough from my initial purchase at $2.2 -- ouch!

I also started my third roundrip on AZM.V today, buying 1000 shares at $3 (I did that twice already over the last 2 months and sold at $3.45 or so). Unfortunately, my first purchase was 3000 shares at $4.3, so I am still underwater in it. But I am trading my way out. :)

DavidV

vinod-> i hear you on getting out early...it seems like once a week (at least) i have that "man, if i'd given it another 2 hours or another day/waited another 30 minutes to check prices/or whatever" conversation with myself...and we both had that conversation with our wives last night about DAL/NWA/UAAU, right?

but to be fair, (at least) once a week i also have that "unbelievable, 6% in 30 minutes, or didn't i just sell this last week 7% higher" conversation...so it all evens out in the end...

congrats...

I follow this blog religiously
In weekend I go through all post from Monday to Friday and take note in my notebook
With member name. And I do research on it
For my IRA
I buy Cara 100 stock that comes in as buy alert. And one that comes in as sell I buy 3 month down in the money put on it. And it is working well.

Also being right 4 or 5 time out of 10 works for me because I quickly sell my losing position. I follow Bill’s daily and WIR and take note of item I think important and I weep with me, read daily and before I do a trade.

I enjoy reading Kaimu’post, they are interesting, educational, and there is lot to learn from it.
And you all have positive impact on my trading

Correction: my first purchase was 2000 shares of AZM.V at $4.3, and the 1000 shares I bought today follow my strategy of increasing my position by 50% in a speculative stock if it falls by 30%, just like what I did with ECU.TO and GIX.V.

DavidV

mebea posted earlier about "front-running" on wall street - of course it is illegal but as Bill consistently points out, we have the fox guarding the hen house these days so anything goes because no one will do anything about illegal activity unless it involves some small potatos guy - too many conflicts of interest. This recent business w/ oil prices is not surprising either given who is standing guard.
This is the Bush/Cheney oil policy at work. It was developed by the oil companys and Bush and Cheney's middle-eastern friends. Crude demand remains steady in China, India, and the Mid-East, however in the developed countries demand has declined for 11 consecutive quarters. The Iranians are out of storage facilities and storing heavy crude in VLCCs (super tankers)to keep it off the market. Indonesia, Sir Lanka, and Taiwan have reduced subsidies and Malaysia has raised the price by 41% this year. Last week we had some funny business with the gov't reports on reserves, and this week one clown forecasts $150/barrel by July 4 and oil pops $10 in one day on demand concerns? BS - My bet is there are big HB&Bs and their gov't lap dogs right in thick of things here.
Jessie Livermore was a small time punk compared to these guys.

moab- that's true..but sometimes the truly contrarian thing to do is to fade the contrarian indicator...LOL...

allen/QT/b0ss-> will wager two large iced bottles of Asahi that FXP hits 84 intra-day at one point next week...if it hits i'll finish both over 2 hours at the sushi bar next friday...if not, i'll buy two for the colleague i go with who's in the same FXP boat...all in fun, alright?-> anyone who trades on this needs to find another pastime...;)

Jessie was truly one of us...

ALOHA !!

Power problems! Anyone who shorted Apache-APA may make a nice profit come Monday!

This outage will effect the mining operations mainly located in the Pilbarra region, which is NW of Perth, by at least 1200 km North of Perth on the Indian Ocean. Far away from the gold region of Kalgoorlie.

Given that the Pilbarra region of Western Australia accounts for some 15%-20% of the World's alumina, iron ore, lead and coal I would say those commodity prices will be rising on Sunday in the USA(Monday in Australia)!

I wonder if this is what Jim Sinclair refers to in his latest gold warning? I mean could you be any more vague Jim? Should I check gold in South Africa also?

READ ON:
VARANUS ISLAND EXPLOSION

Gas crisis hits WA mining industry. Gold and nickel operations badly affected

The dominant mining State of Western Australia has suffered its first serious energy supply crisis through a major explosion at the Varanus Island gas plant off the northwest coast and today it was made clear it may take several months to restore to normality.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Friday , 06 Jun 2008

PERTH -

Western Australian Premier Allan Carpenter has called an urgent conference between industry, power utilities and the government for this Sunday to resolve the near-term problems that hit the State on Wednesday.

Carpenter told the media that solutions needed to be found, particularly with the government power utility Alinta Gas indicating total supply to the State grid would be down at least 30%.

The government indicated today that alternate supplies for energy were being negotiated but prices negotiated would remain confidential.

Affected immediately yesterday was industry and some mining plants, including those on the Eastern Goldfields pipeline system that supplies mining plant and general facilities at gold and nickel operations and towns in that region.