Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes for Armageddon. :^)

Upgrade:

STO - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

Downgrade:

NOK - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

New Coverage:

QCOM - Outperform @ Credit Suisse
RIMM - Underperform @ Credit Suisse

--------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

The share price of GM is at the levels of the end of '87 (excl. dividens): http://tinyurl.com/3p8wwo

Click on the chart for a larger image.

Cara 100 Update:

BC - Target Price Lowered from $18 to $15 @ RBC

ESLR- picking up a little pre-market at 9.95...(vinod/n2s- any take on the convertible note offering)...

You've got stugots, my friend.
Premarket cowboy!

By the way GSS reports higher energy costs resulting in a premarket collapse of yesterdays rally:

"For Golden Star this new power rate would translate into an increase of $60 to $85 per ounce based on forecasted production."

ESLR- a week ago, S&P raises it to a strong buy, and they bid it up to 12.50...today, they follow through on plans to get financing, and they sell if off to 9.90 from last night's close of 10.83...efficient market pricing at work...LOL

S&P RAISES OPINION ON SHARES OF EVERGREEN SOLAR TO STRONG BUY FROM BUY (ESLR) 11.24):

Shares are up 10% this morning after ESLR sets two long-term sales contracts, totaling $600 million, with U.S.-based groSolar and Germany-based Wagner & Co Solartechnik. This follows $1 billion of May contracts. Production to be at Massachusetts plant slated to start up in July. Cash needs for current expansion likely to bring one last dilutive deal, but we project strong ELSR cash flow starting in 2010. We still see $0.10 a share loss in 2008 but raise 2009 EPS forecast by $0.10 to $0.65. We raise target price by 2 to 18, which is 28 times our 2009 estimate, a premium to reflect strong prospects. -M. Jaffe

By the way, for anyone who didn't see this yesterday, I related UBS takeover rumors that I heard reported on my local tv station and nowhere else. And the darn thing is trading up pre-market.

sorry- the second paragraph of above post should be in quotes...full link: http://tinyurl.com/4mzxb5

GFI- gaps to 12.52 (from 11.92) pre-market...

2nd
will pickup some ESLR
also I like CRAIG's yesterday post
I am also looking at POT/MOS/PQ/SID
did not buy any yet. I gave up on oil going down
and lost interest in airline or DUG

2nd_Ave, my take on the ESLR offering is that it is solid. Take a look at ENER, which had a similar offering just a few days before. Not nearly as much confusion surrounding that deal.

I'll probably be adding to my position after the open.

It's good to see my GFI recovering. I severely mistimed my buy a few weeks ago, however.

I've had better success with ESLR. ;)

The problem with trading pre-market is, one party is usually getting a screaming good deal, and it's pretty impossible for outsiders like us to tell who is who.

Cara 100 Update:

PBR - Upgraded to Overweight @ JP Morgan

MNTG.....stock I wish I could short.

No options for the stock.

All the news pieces about the worst June since the great depresssion... I know that neither the Vix nor the put/call ratio have spiked, so this can't be a true bottom yet. But is it possible that the lack of a true spike in these sentiment indicators merely reflects investor attunement to bad news? And a greater sensitivity to good news?

Still long UYG.

Buying ESLR today. Opportunities like this don't come along very often.

Opportunities like this?
Be careful fellas there's sharks in them thar hills.
Don't lose your green with Evergreen...it's going down if ya know what I mean.

Buy 500 Shares of ESLR
Details Filled at $9.90

shark, be careful. There are dolphins in the water.

Woohoo...Go Evergreen!

refiners- every time they get up, they get knocked down again...they should just stay down, man...

Worry abounds. Buy stocks. Buying silver puts.

I love dolphins...Theyre a healthy alternative to tuna.

Allow me to challenge the above logic...

"Worry abounds. Buy stocks." Where do you guys get this stuff?

[Bill Cara note: The fish, formerly called dolphin, now called mahi-mahi, is an alternative to tuna. The dolphin like Flipper is a mammal.]

shark- the pendulum always swings back...wasn't SKF struggling in the low nineties less than 2 months ago, now it's stretching for 150...

"Worry abounds. Buy stocks." Where do you guys get this stuff? --shark

It's in the water. . . . guess they're not in salt water like a shark ;)

and in another two months, oil will be much lower...JMO...

Much lower? I would take the other side of that bet.

Buy 100 Shares of SNDK
Details Filled at $19.45

Bill's daily report stated: "But, let me just say that I believe a week from now that oil and gold prices will be lower that the current price."

Some of the big boys took profits on BZ real . . . Everbank's Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler opines "as a chance to buy reals cheaper than yesterday!" Still holding BZF where I parked a little cash about a month ago (+4.52%). . . think BZ CB speaks louder and acts more decislively than Fed. Retaining for now as hedge.

Dolphins doing what they do to sharks right now. Hope you covered, sharkie.

SWC - the dog is back hunting today - congrats to those who didn't get shaken. This is the most politically and geographically safe PGM miner in the world. Fundamentals in the long term will beat manipulation in the short term.

Building a heavily weighted metals portfolio for the last 6 months is finally paying off for me.

On a side note - coffee price at my local stand went up about 25% this week (after staying the same for at least 2 years I think). This rampant inflation is getting real nasty.

Hey guys,
I was having trouble signing in because of the migration.

Rob.

I think there's still too much optimism of a turn-around for stocks to stop falling yet. Commodities up and stocks down will keep working awhile longer IMO.

The VIX and put/call ratio are not even close to the fear spike in March.

Rob.

Kaimu: thanks for your comments on SPROTT/EMBRY yestereday. I use Embry as an important data point in my evaluation of markets. Wow, talk about due diligence, I had no idea how deep the rabbit hole goes. For now I'm taking this with some grain of salt, but I consider it important input.

All the negative news headlines could foretell a turnaround soon but it seems to me that too many people expect a bounce here for one to happen right away. Remember how everyone felt in March when Bear was going down. Do you feel that way now?

Rob.

Washington Mutual

Does anyone know the story on getting one's contents out of a safety deposit box if a bank goes belly up? Not to mention one's checking account. I'd like an answer other than the bank's ....

DIG - Sold @ 118.5, now looking at DUG again...

DIG Sold @118.0 Typo, sorry

DUG - Bid @ 27.10 146 shares

Regarding a bounce - I think the financials need to lead the way higher. Today they had a meager bounce and have been sold since. When (if?) they get some legs we will go higher, but I don't see the catalyst besides short covering. Remember the MBIA and Ambac issues have been largely ignored recently.

This is an area of support on the S&P, so behavior here should be telling. If no significant bounce...

The financials I track have a ways to go before support. Merrill has long terms support at 30, Capital One has support at January low of 37, Washington Mutual has no support - every shareholder is a loser.

Purple - Dynamite, guns, lawyers, FDIC might help.

Speaking of alternative energy and cars, Zenn (ZNN.V) is a Canadian company I mentioned a couple of weeks ago. Stock has been up 20% since then. They make electric cars that are powered by a new type of battery, one that can be recharged in minutes and allow 400Km of travel in one charge, batteries are significantly lighter too (10% of the traditional weight).

In the next several weeks, a privately-held and secretive company named EEStor Inc. will release the results of independent third-party testing of its electrical energy storage unit. These units can potentially be used everywhere, from hybrid cars to laptop computers. EEStor has Zenn and U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. equity and business partners. Lockheed bought exclusive rights to use EEStor's power system for military purposes, while Zenn bought exclusive worldwide rights to the system for vehicles weighing up to 1,400 kg. They say they believe it is the "holy grail" of electric storage systems. Company is looking at expansion now that it is getting more government approvals. As usual, do your DD.

Time to take action: Car Pooling. H
ere is Marty Chenard's idea to make a difference.

Investor and Consumer ALERT …

It is NOW time for us to do something. The great thing about Americans is that we get up and fight when necessary. We don’t have the luxury of sitting and complaining anymore, it’s time to “do something about the rising gas and oil prices, and it is time to do it right now.”

As Americans, we can show the oil companies and politicians that WE can stem the rising oil problem, and we can have a surplus of gasoline in 30 days. Please take a moment to read this message, and how we /you can cause an immediate positive affect.

Oil prices are absolutely out of control and it will take 3 to 4 months for Middle East oil production to get high enough to help us out. In the meantime, we are likely to face oil costs that will rise from $140/barrel to $150/barrel and then to $200/barrel. It will kill our economy, kill jobs, and cause inflation that will substantially hurt all of us. Yesterday’s panic stock market selling showed the level of fear that investors are reaching by the “do nothing about the oil paralysis mentality” that is going on. Shares of General Motors Corp. plunged to their lowest price in more than 33 years.

Out of control gas and oil prices can be stopped within 30 days. In a moment, I will tell you how.

Last night, I emailed Vice President Cheney. I am waiting for a response, but I am sure that he and the White House are underestimating what we, as citizens, are willing to do.

The essence of my message to Vice President Cheney was the following:

“We can drop the amount of gasoline consumption in a flash and dramatically reduce our usage during the next four months by doing just one thing. We did it years ago, and I don't know why we are waiting so long to do it now. Now is the time, before we pay dearly in the coming days or weeks by waiting “too long”.

What's the answer? Car pooling. If we can get 3 people per car going to work in our big cities, it will take two cars off the road for every three cars … and we will have a gasoline surplus in less than 1 month." (For those who were not around to car pool almost 40 years ago, this is just about driving to and from work, you can still go to the grocery store, visit friends, and go places on your own.)

Don’t think it will work?

Consider the numbers:
1. According to the government’s population polls in 2006, there were 74,559,554 citizens living in the 200 largest U.S. cities. That does not count the surrounding cities everyone drives in from.
2. Assume that we car pool with 3 people per car: 1 driver and 2 passengers. Also assume that the average distance driven is 20 miles each way … assume that it takes 1 gallon of gas to get to work and 1 gallon of gas to get back home. That would save 29,541,423 gallons per day.
3. That would be a reduction in usage of 590,828,468 gallons per month, and 7,089,941,612 gallons per year. That’s right … over half a billion gallons per month, and 7 billion gallons per year.

The reality is that we would probably only have to do it for the next 3 to 4 months until oil production levels get cranked up.

What would happen?

We would probably have a surplus of gasoline in less than a month. Gas prices would plummet, you could take that vacation you cancelled because gas prices were too high, stock prices would stop plummeting, and the increasing rate of inflation would be curtailed by a large amount .. something Bernanke needs help on.

Who can make this happen now …

It is now up to “us,” you and I … each of us to individually make a reasonably small sacrifice during the next four months to stop this insidious problem that is spiraling out of control with no one willing to do anything about it, except talk about it and wave their fingers at each other.

We are Americans.
We are “doers”.
We don’t have to wait for our politicians to do too little, too late.
We need to do something now, and WE CAN … but only if YOU are willing.

My suggestion?

Let’s take the initiative as concerned Americans and push for mandated car pooling now. Let’s car pool for only 4 months and then reassess the situation. If we don’t, we will have a recession bad enough for you to never forget.

How do we get it mandated?

We call or email our Senators, Congressmen, and State Representatives. We tell them that we want to save 2.3 billion gallons of gas every four months by mandating car pooling in at least our largest 200 cities.

We call or email our local newspapers and TV stations and tell them the same. We each send this message out to 10 people, and ask them to do the same ... if we don't, nothing will happen. I will personally start by emailing over 10,000 people that know me right away. If each person sends this message to just 10 people the same day after receiving it, then in 4 days time, TEN MILLION people will have received this message and Washington will do something about it. In less than 10 days, we could have all this passed as an emergency response act.

Our politicians won’t do a thing without us telling them that we WANT them to do it. The reason is that this is a big political year and everyone is scared about doing the wrong thing that would upset their voters. I will be upset if they don’t do anything and you should be too.

Let’s tell them we are willing to meet this necessary challenge now, that we are willing to make the sacrifice to avert a problem that will mean much bigger sacrifices later.

Are you willing to take just 15 minutes out of your day to contact those who can make this happen?

I will even make it easy for you by providing you with all the email addresses of our Senators, Congressmen, and State Representatives. All you have to do is click on the email address and send them a message.

Make a decision now ... a decision that will affect the rest of this year, your finances, and the economy. Make a decision for your family, your job, your company, your friends, and your neighbors.

Please … make a decision now and let’s show our politicians that we do not have to wait for them while we continue to suffer economically and personally.

By acting in unison with our friends, workers, and fellow citizens, we have the power to change things … with an incredible magnitude of power that only few can imagine.

Sincerely,
Marty Chenard, President

1. To contact your State Senator or State Representative, click the link below and then click on your State ... every Senator and State Representative will appear with their email address and phone numbers. Click on the email addresses and you can send your message in a flash. This is the link: http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/

2. The top 100 newspapers reach millions of people. Here is a reference link to the 100 top newspapers in the country: http://www.refdesk.com/top100pap.html

banks- no sympathy here

it's been a government of the bankers, by the bankers, for the bankers...

unfortunately, it's not the top bankers who are suffering...

BillySundance - SWC controlled by Russians ?

"Norilsk Nikel, part of influential tycoon Vladimir Potanin's empire, has sealed a deal to acquire a 51 percent stake in Stillwater Mining Co., The Wall Street Journal reported on 22 November."

I believe this deal went through. Perhaps not so politically safe as before ...

And true to form, the dog of dogs, UXG, is the winner. I bought this stupid thing yesterday for 2 bucks and sold it for lunch money. It only went up 36 percent in 2 hours trading, so obviously, I know what the $#%^ I'm doing.

I apologize. It went up like 20 percent in 2 hours.

ALOHA !!

Rob ... All you're seeing is a move from paper assets to hard assets. People and governments, especially SWF types, are realizing that as values of global currencies shrink, especially for the World reserve fiat they will use commodities and gold and silver(monetary metals)as "money", in other words a long term store of value. These people are not stupid and they are taking their paper IOUs they get from selling "real" goods and services(like oil revenues) to Europe and America and "backing" them with hard assets, anything that can't get printed with a mouse click! MOUSE DOLLARS!!! You could say they are turning the global commodity futures markets into a PERTH MINT!!! Doesn't anyone see that when OPEC seeks ways to maintain value of their revenues by using the futures markets they are creating the classic spiral of inflation. This inflationary spiral exists because there is no "real money" left on the Planet! The Planet is devoid of "monetary value"! ... Not even the Euro qualifies ... which is only as stable as the German people. That will be seen soon. Today the Russian central bank announced they are moving into Swiss francs. The largest SINGLE oil exporter in the World is moving into Swiss Francs and they are building their gold reserves. I am sure the Chinese are as well ... Today the CHF spiked up!

BA Bid @66.7 - 45 shares

Kaimu,

Wow dude you get up early.

Jock - yes SWC is majority controlled by Russian miner Norilsk Nickel. I am not trying to pretend there are no risks involved w/ that. But the Stillwater mines are in the U.S. (Montana) and is in close proximity to Western Powder River Basin coal, which not seeing the same out of control pricing as Eastern Appalachian US coal that is being exported all over the world.

However, the majority of PGMs production in the is produced in South Africa, in which utility ESKOM can barely keep their power system up and running! They are delivering power at below their own costs (which can't last long!).

I do not mean to express that there are not some serious concerns with the Russian ownership of SWC. But being in the US, near somewhat stable power sources (and thus somewhat stable operating costs), being completely unhedged as of end of Q2, I think SWC has some distinct advantages.

The only other place in the world where there is even a somewhat stable climate for platinum production seems to be Australia - but the recent gas line explosion has revealed some serious geographical reliability concerns there as well.

Sorry if my previous post came off as too excited about SWC - yes, there are real ans serious risks involved. But IMO, the risks are smaller than other parts of the world. I wouldn't be surprised to see a company like Rio Tinto or BHP come poking around Montana in the next few years...

Mouse dollars - I like that one a lot. No longer wil a USD buy a buckskin, but maybe a mouseskin?

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... yes, car pooling would help but I find this quote from your article disturbing. This one quote is why Americans are in the mess we are in now ...

"The reality is that we would probably only have to do it for the next 3 to 4 months until oil production levels get cranked up."

There is no LONG TERM anything left in America! You can't even be a long term investor or saver. Not even "cash" is safe!

I believe Americans would be better off attacking the root cause of our financial ills and not the symptoms. High gas prices are a symptom ...

Our quality of "money" is the root cause. We re-elect the root cause every four years and we certainly will not change that bad behavior in 2008!

ALOHA !!

shark ... I'm a FARMER !!! Not a banker!!!

ALOHA !!

The word "root" has a dual meaning in Australia ...

Thinking out loud: Perhaps week before last would have been a good time to buy PM miners? Maybe next week will present better opportunities than this week?

Kaimu,
You're right on the "money"

Confidence was all Fiat had to support itself and where is confidence now?

A funny headline I just read:

"FED AIDED WALL STREET TO AVERT CONTAGION"

This is sure looking like Contagion to me unless the FED defines contagion as something different than every one of the banks and brokerages with access to FED money going down the tubes.

Rob.

Next time Bernanke speaks might be good PM entrypoint?

Telestar3d

Appreciate the links.

JMO, but VP Cheney is the last person I would send an email too! He could care less IMO.

He headed up the energy policy for this administration which brings us to today. Maybe Bill's musings about the price of oil and political discussion about drilling off the coasts in the Artic are on target!

Cheney has also refused to release any notes or reports in response to numerous FOIA requests and lawsuits. If memory serves me right, think he claimed some sort of WH executive privelege. Think oil looks just fine to Cheney and HAL.

Another aspect of this whole market I have to keep complaining about is:

"Why does anyone and the market still react to what analysts say?"(Besides Meredith Whitney, the only one with any credibility)

Add ratings agencies and the BLS and FED to that list as well.

They've all been clearly steering us wrong since last spring when "subprime was all contained" and "would never spread to the economy" and how many times have they called the bottom in financials? 7,8 10??

Who are the people trading on these "calls" by ratings agencies, analysts, and the FED? Are they that stupid or just in mass denial until what everyone knows is finally in writing.

I can't wait to see the day(and I think it's coming soon) when analyst calls and rating agencies actions and FED statements don't even move the market at all. That's when you know that 100% of confidence and trust is gone.

That's where I am right now. I guess we'll just have to wait for everyone else to catch up.

Rob.

2nd
will buy TBT at 69.20 if it get filled

Letting QID and UXG run ...

Wrote 5 Dec 10 puts on ESLR @ $2.20 to scale in

Kaimu - I echo your thoughts on the lack of a long-term vision.

It becomes more evident everyday that our elected officials are infected with the same disease that long ago infected corporate America - an obsession with short term goals.

This is an example of what we need to uncover more regularly:
"Celebrate Express selling for $31M Thur 5:55pm"

BDAY is up 63% Today

"In the next several weeks, a privately-held and secretive company named EEStor Inc. will release the results of independent third-party testing of its electrical energy storage unit."

Si02. I've heard about this company before and in DD saw that a Richard Weir was there co-founder, if this is the same Dick Weir that was in the disk drive business up in Si Valley in the 80's & 90's I'd dig as deep as necessary into EEstor tech claims. Had the same level of claims about storage devices that never quite got into production. He's a brilliant guy and got things to "work" in the lab, but could never translate into production.

Si02

Re: EEStor, Inc.

Standard operating procedure (SOP)----Recommend you run his name and fraud under google.

Lot of responses on a number of individuals by the name of Richard Weir. Didn’t spend much time reviewing the pages of hits, but did see this about delay. Please doydd.

http://tinyurl.com/22blqg

Caveat Emptor!

Kaimu and Seamus I could not agree with both of you more.

America should have been doing all these alternative energy solutions concepts starting in the 70’s after the first oil shock. We have had 38 years to solve and improve this condition. What did we do instead? The political machine of the USA made a bargain with Suadi Arabia to provide us with cheap oil in exchange for defense of their lands. Today we are learning of the flaws inherent in such a solution and a wise mind should have foreseen. It all boils down to short term fixes with no long term master plan in place.

Yes Seamus, Cheney is the fox in the hen house.

I have always thought all those people who were buying SUV’s were really stupid and had no sense of history with respect to the 70’s oil embargo. Personally, I hope they choke with they fill up the tank and see the price.

U.S.News & World Report
6 Myths About Oil Speculators
Friday June 27, 10:44 am ET
By Rick Newman

http://tinyurl.com/3o7mco

At least someone in the financial media seems to get it!

Si02,

After a quick search it is the same person and the partner Carl Nelson was also involved AND the Barium Titanate was an outgrowth of a magnetic storage medium they were touting to startup a verticle recording medium in the late '80's. That deal fell thru when GMR technology quadurpled storage densities of standard longitudinal recording systems. It's interesting that they kept working with the material until they found a market for it!! A newly invented Verticle recording today uses a sputtered metallic medium instead of particulate Barium Titanate. The actual particle manufacturer might be a better play than the battery user.......I recall that Pfizer was the manufacturer of all Magnetic recording Oxides back in the day..don't know if they still do? Other companies were all Japanese(surprised?).

ESLR

Noting a lot of volume (2,058) on Dec 7.50 puts compared to other call and put prices.

BillySundance,
The funny thing about the "evil" oil speculators is that I believe it's GS and the other banks and brokerages using FED money to "speculate" in Oil for the exact reasons that Kaimu talks about.

So do we now expect Ben to tell them No!! No!!

There's still way too many people shorting Oil for them to give up that trade without a much bigger threat than Ben will ever give them.

Rob.

Tele3D wrote: "America should have been doing all these alternative energy solutions concepts starting in the 70’s after the first oil shock... What did we do instead?"

Bought japanese cars, built a pipeline to the north slope of AK, and pumped Texas dry.

What we did instead was demonize Jimmy Carter and paint all conservationists, isolationists, and environmentalists as some sort of effete limp wristers not manly enough to drive-em-bigtruck and support the military adventurism required to fuel (pun intended) the happpy motoring lifestyle.

Carter put solar panels on the White House. Regan had them removed almost immediately after taking office. Carter said put on a sweater, make a little sacrifice. Cheney said the American way of life is non-negotiable and that conservation is a personal virtue, not part of an energy policy.

ALOHA !!

ON SWC
Last I looked Sprott had SWC on his short list, but then again being Russian controlled perhaps he got a visit from the Russian Mafia last night!!!

yes, in the late seventies we had a truly decent guy in the white house...

Bill,

I'm living in the Netherlands en just received your book. First Amazon.com didn't deliver outside the US, but now they do.

Mark

Took profits on most of my financial shorts. Looks like the odds are for a rally over the next several days - S&P daily RSI(14) is 29 and we seem to be basing here.

Alaskan Pete - what you are describing is how the right used the culture war to advance corporate interests.

Rob - absolutely - and why shouldn't a savvy bank like GS continue the long oil trade, right? Its not evil, its just logical. Its the effect, not the cause of our funny money policy!

The world is awash in a short oil trade! Everyone who drives a car but doesn't own their own oil is SHORT! If you own a car but no oil and you choose to also short oil futures, well then you are just doubly short, right?

Its a trend that ain't worth fighting IMO. I've tried in the past and realized my mistakes. I just moved within a mile of my work - working on closing my oil short!

Oil will not top until the risk of being long outweighs the risk of being short - and that will take the kind of fiscal conservatism that none of our leaders seems willing to deliver!

Being very overweight in Gold and PM miners is sure paying off this week! Except the pink sheet plays are still flat. HL, PAAS, AUY hot again.

Interesting many Canadian oil trusts are flat or down with the rise in crude.

Hey Kaimu

Using "root" would be considered an obscenity, no?

Guys I have to disagree about Carter.

The whole "we need to put on a sweater and use less oil" nonsense (at the time, we would all agree, it was palpably nonsense)lost Carter the election in 1980. I am hearing echoes of it bow from Obama, the idea that our way of life is somehow unsustainable, and that for the good of the rest of the world we need to start riding bicycles and eating tofu. If Obama pursues that line of logic, he too will lose this fall. I'm not saying Carter was not a decent guy, just that he was not a decent president. And the economy under Carter was a disaster.

Wiki has quite a bit on Eestor. The technology is really a capacitor, not a chemical battery. Capacitors are pretty straightforward and haven't seen any huge advnances in several decades, so Eestors claims of energy densities that are 1000x an average capacitor raises eyebrows.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEstor

I hope they are on to something, as capacitors beat out chemical batteries in every respect except energy densities. But the cynic in me doubts the claims...

We now know when it's decent guy VS oil Aholes who wins....

*We* are completely responsible for everything that has transpired since, including badmouthing the Decent guy and voting in more bought and paid for oil Aholes.....and loading up on SUV's and other glutenous behaviors while Europe kept their small cars and we called the French names.
Who will have the last laugh? Those taking our futures in exchange for oil at $140.

When everyone wants to know who is to blame, we all have magic mirrors to see who it is....

Just curious...how old were you when Carter was President? If you were still riding a bicycle then you are just parroting other's BS.

300 Shares of TBT
Details Filled at $69.20

I hate to disclose my true age, but here's a clue. The day I was born was the day the Beatles played their last live concert before a paying audience. And I would never just parrot someone else's BS Craig. I've got plenty of my own.

I think GSS may be getting good in here.

BillySundance,
I have no problems with GS or anyone else taking long Oil positions. What I do have a problem with is the FED sponsoring this activity while they wring their hands over inflation.

As far as blame goes, I completely blame Congress for allowing the FED to do all this. I do believe we'll see $200 oil before we see $100 oil.

Rob.

2nd et al,

Sell my SKF this afternoon or wait until Monday?

I'm in at an average $102.

Thanks

A lot of what I know about Carter I learned as a history major at a big, liberal, eastern university, including reading the famous speech in which he mentioned the sweater and turning the heat down, so that's a primary document, not someone else's BS.

People are loading up on calls on XLF today.

And loading up on puts on the QQQ's and SPY as well.

DIA has more puts than calls sold but not by as much as the others.

Rob.

shark,

I don't think we can continue using a much larger portion of the world's resources than our population would dictate, so I'd be inclined to say that our way of life is unsustainable. As other countries develop to our quality of life level, there simply won't be enough resources to go around. We either need to start using less or be willing to maintain our position through constant military force.

HNCadet and proudPapa, thanks for the finds. If it is a capacitor, then it would be huge indeed. I am more interested in ZNN actually as they are expanding. I wish I could buy the car.

As for disrupting technology, the same arguments were made against TIM.to, and still are, and look at the share price. Some analyst were calling for TIM to drop to zero. Sprott is behind TIM.

Interesting how the same names keep coming back.

ALOHA !!

nemo ... Yes, but Aussie farmers must use that word quite often!

Jeff,

We presently use a VASTLY larger proportion of the worlds resources than our population would dictate. However, how are other countries going to develop to our quality of life level while we continue to monopolize resources? Why precisely do you think that we cannot continue to do so? Do you really see this trend turning around anytime soon?

I'm starting to see some panic out there. If the PPT doesn't step up soon we'll see another huge down day today.

Rob.

Wow here we go again.

Define- Dichotomy: "division into two usually contradictory opinions"
Thefreedictionary.com

Love the debate today.
Safe to say we all have a difference of opinion.

I would encourage everyone to ready the 14 page document below. Probably the most objective point of view of how and why we have 140 oil today.
The script is a testamont from Dr Yergin. He describes the problem as a "confluence of events".

So as we try to blame others for their mistakes and mishaps maybe we should step back and get out of the game and observe from the bleachers. It is always better to watch film from the stands than on the field in the action.

I believe the script is objective and the only solution is a bunch of solutions. We can't change overnight it will take decades.

http://tinyurl.com/47z75j

Post from cell. Please forgive

You want to see panic? Tell Kaimu that the government is going to confiscate PM's and simultaneously devalue the dollar.

BTW, there's an article on the Financial Post on Zenn Motor:

http://www.financialpost.com/reports/oil-watch/story.html?id=613448

I live within walking distance of EEStor. Might put in a resume. Haven't researched them for a long time.

I thought the following article was somewhat relevant to the discussion.

The easily obtained supplies were running out. To get more of the energy source that fuelled a nation, workers had to explore and dig to unprecedented depths. Costs rose steadily and some experts were certain there was no solution. Progress would halt. In the future lay crisis and collapse.

The year is 1712. The nation is England. The energy source running dangerously low is coal. I didn't mention this at the beginning lest the reader think these facts are somehow obscure or irrelevant to the struggle for energy we face today. They are neither.

It wasn't England's first energy crisis. That came in the 13th century, when population growth and deforestation led to a shortage of wood.

The rest at
http://tinyurl.com/6blwj3

Anyone still think Gold is going back to $800?

Si02

Re; 1:17 p.m. post on Zenn

That vehicle looks familiar. Think I saw someone I know driving it up in Western Michigan recently. Plan on visiting there next week and will check into it if I see him. Will let you know here or via skype.

Shark, resources are being rationed right now through price. Those counties that can afford to pay get their oil. The less fortunate counties probably take turns doing without.

It is very clear that the standard of living for many citizens has been declining in America and rising in many emerging markets. This trend is likely to continue unabated for some time.

Bow to fingerlakes' 10:32. Taking a loss on silver puts.

Averaging down TSO at $18.80.

Added SCC, late to the party.

DXY threatening lower Bollinger Band. Thanks Ben... the gold stocks are smoking.

$142.53 new all time oil high...

Added USU and PBRA.

Got DUG into a bad position. Any advice on getting out?

mebea, yes, sell it and take the loss.

ALOHA !!

These headlines were on Google Finance about fifteen minutes ago. The US financial media cannot even coordinate their BS since these three articles contradict each other ...

Which is it? Did US consumers bank those tax rebate checks(stimulus) or did they spend them? It all depends on which article you believe ... Two say we spent them and one says we saved them! I tend to believe they are spent since even $600 is considered nothing worth saving! Now it is left to determine what were the rebates spent on? A new Coach bag or your phone bill?

READ ON:

1:49PM ET

Americans rediscover the piggy bank, for now
guardian.co.uk - 49 minutes ago

By Emily Kaiser WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - US consumers banked a big portion of their tax rebate checks last month, giving them enough cushion to keep spending for a few more months and perhaps postponing a recession that once seemed inevitable.

US Economy: Spending Rose More Than Anticipated (Update1) Bloomberg

Stimulus payments lift spending in US International Herald Tribune

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, didn't!!! EGO 2 days ago

SKF parabolic. Out at 140 and crying. Did execute an expensive 130 call a while back.

SWC up 9% but investor NILSY in in the tank.

Mebea -

Sell. Made my mistakes with DUG a few months ago and put it on my do not trade list. There are many more stocks in defined trends to trade - move on.

The hardest thing to do is to sell at a loss (i've been there) but it is the most important.

shark - its always good to use less - lowers your input costs and thus increases your net.

Moab,telestar -

I was hoping for something with a little less sting in it. I hate just eating the red and then watching the damn thing rebound a few days later. Thanks much to you both.

Adding to CNSL 14.80, NLY 15.32.

Again with the divergence between oil/oil stocks. Still long DUG, GFI.

Craig beat me to the punch. No disrespect intended Sharkdude, but from reading your comments for a long time (I have lurked here for years), I'd have pegged you as early 30s.

Bull Hunter- i can remember the last time you asked that question...take some profits, my friend...there's no guarantee what happens on Monday ...

...maybe you can pick up a little UYG while you're at it...

Piling heavily into APWR. Down from $32 one week ago.

Re Carter - he appointed Paul Volker as Fed Chief, but Reagan got the benefits. Suppose we'd started taxing gas at European levels back then, we might still be paying higher prices at the pump, but a chunk of the money would be going into the US treasury, not the coffers of another counrty.
My guess is that the Republicans must be hoping they lose the election, otherwise they'd have to deal with the mess they created. Not going to be pretty over the next few years.
Vad, good positive article, thanks. But its a longer term perspective, we may need the tin foil in the interim.

from a high of 13126 to a low of 11286 today...that's an 1840 point drop in less than six weeks...

Thanks 2nd.

Think we get a 3:30 selloff?

Regards

I should add, for amusement sake if nothing else, that my current long position in GFI is the result of a trading plan screw-up.

I entered at 12.27 in early June before it spiked down. Of course, I had a stop in place, a stop-limit order with the limit about a dime below the stop...and it promptly gapped through my stop a few days after entering. Once I realized this, it looked to be oversold, so instead of closing the trade I sat. The rationale being "If I had just opened this trade now, what would I do"...easy answer set another stop and let the trade do its thing.

Now, this was really a mistake on my part for using a stop-limit instead of a stop-market, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Furthermore, I broke a fundamental rule...set a stop, and respect it when it's hit. Seems like you can only get away with breaking your rules once you've learned them sufficiently (usually by losing alot of $$$ to burn the lesson into your greedy little brain, lol).

mebea

Ti me it is not important that I make a profit everyday but that I big a big profit later. On my DUG I have been in the red then green then red. But I am holding out waiting for the big sell off in the energy sector.

Today Mr Cara made this comment:"Yes, these are challenging times, particularly for the Buy-and-Hold "investor". But, let me just say that I believe a week from now that oil and gold prices will be lower that the current price."

Thursaday Ron on his web site made this comment: "Investment hypothesis: we're in the final three days of the quarter. You think the hedgies are gonna give up this easily? They'll protect their longs (energy) and be talking up the markets. That's their DNA. Pray for the worst opening imaginable."

I agree with them. So I wait.

Ti:To
[%@#$ Typos again]

Along with Alaska Pete and a few others, all I know about Carter was because I voted for him and lived it. I don't have to rely on what a historian (all biased one way or another) wrote.
That would be parroting what others wrote, no matter what you think.

There is a world of difference.

BH- a 3:30 sell-off would at best add another percentage point to a 50% gain...take it...what if it's a 3:30 reversal instead leading into Monday's EOQ mark-up?

2nd,

Gracias Amigo.

Don't forget to stop by for your free lunch on your future Caraista Tour.

Regards

Norm, thanks for posting "Oil at the Break Point."

BH- you're selling higher now than the march 17th intraday high of 150.10...congrats...

Quick...everyone to the other side of the boat...

ESLR buyers: if the price of oil were to fall 20%, how do you think this will affect ESLR? Is it viewed as an alternative to oil and so will ESLR fall as oil falls? Or will it rise together with the broad market that will rejoice as POO falls?

DavidV

assuming no dividend cuts, C now offers a 7.4% yield...

Mebea, learning to take losses early is one of the best and hardest skills to learn as a trader. You can always buy back in if things change and if you sell and it turns around and goes in your favor if you would have held, well that just goes with the territory. Sort of reminds me of the song by Hornsbury, I think, titled “that’s the way it is.”

You really have to define if you are a trader or something else.

David- i don't see much correlation between ESLR prices and oil prices...right now, ESLR is a company that should be bought on its own merits..

C is toast. I see GM paying 8.8% yield. Am I gonna buy...

BH

Congrats on a good trade . . . agree w/2nd; take it move on, don't look back.

QT, great minds think alike. Now that I'm out of FXP at a good profit (because I waited patiently, selling my last position at 86 yesterday...), I decided to take a small position in DUG. The rationale is (1) I believe there is some point at which oil will drop significantly, and given the level of speculative $$ in oil, it probably will overshoot downward (whatever "overshoot" means here...), and (2) Bill's comment on oil dropping sometime in the near future. I've wanted to take a postion in DUG for a few weeks now, but decided to wait for a few more upward spikes. I'll just hold until we get a downward spike. frankly, it's only 1% of my portfolio, so my VAR if we suddently got a huge upward spike (Iran...nuclear...) is tiny. I agree with you that holding for a big sell off seems like a reasonable strategy.

BTW, are you still out of FXP?

I got killed on my TBT position. Darned thing was up about 3% and now I'm down 5%. Probably should have had a stop on that.

I agree with 2nd about the false correlation between solar and oil. Apples and oranges. Solar and the companies driving its growth will stand on their own merits over the long haul.

Thanks, Seamus.

Regards

I wouldn't touch C w/ a ten foot pole. This company bought that $800m Lone Star hedge fund last year and has already dismantled it. Talk about wealth destruction - The dividend is about as safe as driving a Cutlass Caprice to Bogota if you ask me........

Yikes! Sorry for the echo 2nd. ;)

Almost everything on my miners list is showing green today with the glaring exception of SIL. Anyone have any ideas about why it's been so weak? Is it just country risk (Bolivia)? TIA

"Vad, good positive article, thanks. But its a longer term perspective, we may need the tin foil in the interim."

Ugh, absolutely. I have no doubt that we are to go through a lot more pain, and it's going to get much worse before it gets any better. But I wanted to provide some counterweight to the "end of the world" point of view :)

IMO, it's not. Scientific and technological advances haven't reached their limits; they solved this kind of situations every single time in the past, and there is no reason they wouldn't this time around. System pushed far enough tends to push back - and the farther it's pushed the stronger counterpush is. Our whole system of energy balance is being pushed far beyond reasonability, and the balance is going to be restored, reshaping our whole world in a processs and opening the ways to both new levels of prosperity and to prosperity for new groups.

That's my long term view and I stick to it :)

Vad,

Thanks for putting the situation in perspective. I don't believe in peak oil, I don't believe we're anywhere near running out of it, I don't believe global demand is as strong as the oil mongers claim, and I do believe that oil is the most un-free and manipulated market in the world.

Oh, and to look even further... somewhere down the road, in xxx years we are going to get careless about new source of energy use again and run into new crisis... round and round it goes :)

allen

Out of FXP...didn't wait long enough. 24hrs later there was $$$ all over the table where I once sat. :-(

Remember DUG is tied into oil & service companies stocks. Once the big players move their $$$ out of there for a more lucrative sector DUG will soar. I'm banking a lot on Ron's comment in my previous post.

Shark: Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we have passed the peak of the bell curve of maximum theoretical extraction rate. We have only pumped 1 trillion barrels of the 3 to 4 there are. All the low hanging fruit is gone. I do believe we are there, and I do not believe we will ever see $100 again.

How can it be a "free" market when supply is monopolized by a few large interests? We should just stop talking about "free" markets, there probably aren't really any.

2nd_ave, number2son: thanks for your take on ESLR. I have superimposed the charts of USO and ESLR and if anything, I saw a slight negative correlation. In that case, ESLR should be a safe buy now (I don't want to take positions now that will lose big time if oil collapses). Opened a 50% position in ESLR now (will double it after a 10% drop).

Also, bought back the VLO shares I sold last week for $43.8. As I mentioned previously, I think the oil will turn around after the long weekend (with Bush signing an executive order on off-shore drilling), but we have also had a sizable market drop already, so the current VLO price is reasonably safe, I think.

DavidV

C- ah, but those are the kinds of strong opinions that drive great trades...

My friend is leaving Lehman brothers for a better offer with guaranteed years and theyre even buying his Lehman stock from him at inflated prices, so it would be stupid to stay.

One huge money manager at Lehman told my friend that "our business model is broken, it doesn't work anymore". Make of that what you will, but I take it to mean that money management is becoming de-centralized, as almost anyone with any moxy has already left hb and b for a hedge fund. Let's face it, these hb and b guys were perpetrating the greatest, most audacious and prolific scam ever to come down the pike. And most of them couldn't manage a McDonalds.

SWC up 12%. Perhaps the Russiam mafia found the naked short sellers. Possible solution to the severed feet washing ashore at Valdes Island in British Columbia, Canada. SWC was waiting for the other shoe to drop.

have to wonder how many cutlass caprices made it across the border in the eighties with fine colombian commodities...

"And most of them couldn't manage a McDonalds."

look forward to seeing that...

3, make that 4 short/ultrashort ETFs reversing and turning down now.

EEV, FXP, TWM & PSQ

May be early, exited SDS at 67.14 and took profits.

DavidV said:
I think the oil will turn around after the long weekend (with Bush signing an executive order on off-shore drilling)

So what, it takes a minimum of 5 to 10 years to develop an offshore field. Where are going to get deep water drilling rigs? PBR is currently sucking up all the demand for the tuppi fields.

What’s the time frame to build a drilling rig?

Do you really think demand is going to fall in any meaningful way from China and India in the next 20 to 30 years?

P.S. Buying falling knives are usually never safe trades.

One more thing, almost all cost inputs for finding and extracting oil are rising. Therefore going forward oil has a floor under it.

Houses right now may be a roaring bargain. Why? What is the replacement cost for these houses today? Any below $100 per square foot has to be attractive.

There's so much more to the house price equation than replacement cost. Such as, for example, the fact that NO ONE can borrow any money because the credit monster is in contraction mode, meaning that because no one is borrowing, there is no basis upon which to initiate further lending. It's 1929 type stuff in it's scope and meaning.

BA - 45 filled @$66.7, sell limit @$70.0

Telestar,

I would disagree because once the "world" knows that there will be an proactive measure to bring more oil to the market 5-10 years from now it will bring down prices.

The market knows there isn't anything really in the works besides, Kahastan, Brazil, Cuba and Russia as far potentially real development in the works.

Another problem is that Rigs take 18 months to build and develop... so that adds time but the "market" will respect new investment by the largest and wealthiest country in the world put forth towards oil exploration.

As Dr. Yergin states.... there has been a missing generation of oil investment. There is a shortage of scientists, geologist and researchers for oil development due to bad policies over the past two to three decades.

Oh... by the way IMO by the time the oil really gets up and running it won't matter as saturation will hit the market because of Technological advancements. As money and research are focused into the sector to much supply will hit and advancing breakthroughs will occur.

just a though...

I don't think Bush can sign an executive order to drill it may require congressional approval unless it is for "national security"

Cyderman - SIL falling on country risk

What more do you need than Bolivia country risk? The country seems to be coming apart, with richer low-land provinces voting for autonomy from the high-land-based central gov't.

Bolivia has always been unstable, and in the last year or two fought with forgeign oil/gas cos. including Petrobras.

Bush can sign anything he wants. Congress is a lapdog.

Best not to ask for advice and then argue with it.

Most advice has had a huge/large price tag attached to it, and it is out there to be heard...Your choice whether to listen or not.

Price paid also for this info.

high end homes in the bay area built with the kind of materials and care seen 30-40 years ago still take several years from start to finish, and can be expensive as hell...whereas the stuff i've seen go up in the outlying counties almost overnight-> those i wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole...

Norm: By the time there is any significant increase in oil pumping capacity, the US Dollar index will be down to 40, and the new floor will be at least $200/bbl, IMHO. There's no going back and there's no "undoing" the mistakes of a fiat madman.

Checking miners' list, interestingly only one has a put/call ratio over 1.0. HMY at 1.37. Must be country risk (South Africa). SIL is 0.51 BTW.

Lowest ratio: IVN 0.06; UXG 0.08; & KRY at 0.11

Norm, I hope your right, but in the mean time I'm going with supply and demand equation. It is very possible that the world economy slows down and demand softens that would just be an opportunity buy during weakness.

However, Richard Rainwater has sold all his oil stocks and he's no dummy. There are no easy answers.

With respect to mortgages, I told a friend that we will be going back to a world where you will need 20% down to purchase a house (a sane policy. He said, no 30%, he just tried to purchase a place and that's what the lender was demanding.

Enjoyed everyone's post today. Thank you.

Home prices will diverge from the cost to build new, and there will be no new homes built by other than the very wealthy, IMHO. The oversupply will take the selling price down and so will the end of credit as we once knew it. I don't see a bounce for a decade.

And areas like mine have not folded yet, but they will. Wile E. Coyote off the cliff, looking down but has not fallen yet. A depression has not been factored into home prices yet.

As Puplava says, the politicians will turn this recession into a depression.

Hey Seamus, where do you go to see the put / call ratio?

Thanks

When the Dow was peaking out around 13,000, HBB and the Fed were promoting "the worst is behind us" fantasy, HBB, after feasting at the Fed window and changing trash for cash,needed more capital and began selling non-cumlutative preferreds with maturity dates longer than we will be alive. Interest rates were 7-3/4 to 8.5%. Non-cumulative means they only owe principal at maturity. Interest is not guaranteed.

For example, USBancorp, with supposedly good prospects to weather the credit storm, their April issued 7 7/8% paper is trading at slightly over par ($25). Hunnington Bank issued 8.5% paper during the same time frame. That issue is now trading at a loss of 27%. Some Wamu paper is trading at 59cents on the dollar (-41%) with a current yield of over 13%. Wonder who bought all those issues? Most of the recently issued preferreds are trading lower than par.

IF.... you can pick the survivors, perhaps there are some good profits to be made on principal and great yields to boot. Of course, higher rates ahead could dampen a rebound in these credit instruments.

However, I read somewhere the other day that a problem in the derivitive arena could wipe out 100 banks overnight. That's when you wake up in the morning and hear that a bank holiday has been declared.

BH- time to start your lessons, man...i guarantee SKF has seen its high for the day, or i'll buy YOU lunch in lancaster county..;)

rugger09

When I set up my watchlists on Schwab, I can select a number of columns. Two of them are put/call ratios (open interest or volume). I usually keep the put/call open interest ratio on the far right side of my lists to look for differences.

Just our luck guys. We decide to become stock traders, and then we have the worst June since the great depression.

Aurator...I agree with your above comment.

Alaska pete...I seem younger than I am because my emotional growth has been stunted by consciously avoiding major responsibility at every turn and due to the fact that I'm actually Bob Marley.

rugger09

Forgot to mention, put/call ratio also shows up in my trading window.

ALOHA !!

shark ... Look if all you have to do is make up fake financials and pump all your losses offshore then that isn't managing anything ... that's just plain old LYING!!!

The HB&B managers were the kids you knew in junior high who had long hair and Beatle boots but couldn't play a Dm chord to save their life! These same guys are the ones who in college drove around town with surfboards on their jacked-up 4wheelers but couldn't swim 10 meters! In Australia they have a word for those types ... "POSERS"! In other words, "posing" as human beings ... HA!!!

The heavy weights take on the "real risk" and build the GoldCorps and Rio Tintos of the World and the psychopaths like the Mozillo's and Rothschilds shuffle paper and pretend they've earned something! Then there's the other guy who's name rhymes with ROT!

cyderman,

Great post and you are absolutely correct. One thing to remember is that policies that presidents or congress make or start... the benefits usually aren't reaped until another administration fills the shoes...

Under Reagan he appointed Regan as the Treasure Sec from Merrill Lynch.

At that time as you mention Volker raised rates to combat inflation and as a result 30 year bonds were paying 14%, 14%!! could you imagine. Sign me up for that.

In the first time in us history Regan made the 30 year bond callable in 10 years.

As a result, that debt was called and reissued at 4 and 5% and my friends that was a huge contributing factor why Clinton got credit for balancing the budget.
It is fairly easy to balance the budget if your debt payments are 70 to 65% lower..... on 30 year bonds. By that time the Notes and bills were already paid back at those high rates.

shark- so you've discovered the secret of sounding younger than you are ;)

Rotated a tad out of SWC and opened a position in E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN (PTM) @ $25.5.

2nd

Sold SKF @ 151.01.

I was hoping for $152 to make it an even $50 a share profit, but waited too long.

Thanks for your help. Drinks are on me.

Regards

(the secret to LOOKING younger than you are- stay out of the sun and lie down every time you get the urge to exercise)...LOL

BH- great, i stop holding my breath...LOL-> got a little worried back in early May...

"can" stop holding my breath..

Aurator,

Good points but i gotta go on a rant and it isnt' directed at anyone directly.

IMHO...

20 years from now oil will be 600 per barrel. It won't matter and the whole world won't care.
Peak oil won't happen, the USA will still be the largest economy of the world but the GDP won't be at 24-26% of the world it will be around 14% but it won't matter....

The sky isnt' falling... there are problems but we have seen this before it was just under a different headline.

What currency isn't FIAT??? Hmm... all of them? maybe 5 countries... all of those central banks hold hands and the BIS is in the middle.

We will never go to a gold standard, why where is the money going to come from to fund the vaults?

If the USD is so bad then why is all of this foreign money being pumped into our economy? Buildings, homes, companies and sovergn money is flying here....
USA is on sale to the world and unfortunately those who live in the states are paying for it....

What currency will overtake the USD? people are betting the EURO.... I doubt it, their problems are just getting started.... Economically and politically.
I find it difficult to believe the country with the highest GDP not to be the reserve currency everything is just RHETORIC as everyone has an agenda.

2nd,

I'm still a baby at this shorter term trading stuff.

Now, if only the techs would give up the ghost....I'm holding a boat load of QID.

Regards

kaimu- one of the few appropriate uses of the term psychopath...no other way to understand Mozilo's reign of destruction...

by the way peak oil and $600 oil won't matter because technology over time will create new advances alternatives (that are not related to food fuel).

My advice for staying young,

Never get married.

For heaven's sake, never have children.

Never get deeply into debt.

Stay away from corporate jobs/offices hors/people.

Smoke lots of rabbit weed and drink copious amounts of whatever Cousie has on special.

Sometimes after the close Maria will say: "It's 4:00 on Wall Street, do you know where your money is?" And the honest answer is, not really.

Missile defense success: First intercept of warhead after separating from missile

http://tinyurl.com/48n4rq

Got to love those smart whips at Lockheed.

Offer the system for a concession to persian countries... never will happen but that would be nice.

RIMM in throwover waterfall decline. Fast money guys just said buy this week (in the dip).

MU drops 20% in 2 days...
SNDK drops 20% in 2 days...

OT: Bruce Hornsby, “That’s just the way it is.”

http://tinyurl.com/3ht5br

What gives America the right?

Peace to all!

shark, you sound like a pretty self-involved dude. To each his own.

Very heavy buying in July XLF calls today leads me to think a bounce next week is likely.

2nd_ave

Yikes! SNDK down 33% from June 5th close. Talk about waterfall . . . it's now below March low . . if it would baseline, it would be time to sell puts on it again. But it hasn't shown signs of basing yet. Kinda of looks like the BAC chart! LOL!

Norm, the reason foreign money is coming here is because ours is worthless and our stuff is priced in our worthless paper. Theirs on the other hand is fiat, but worth more than ours, so they get the good deals and we pay for our government spending with our stuff. That's why they are vacationing here and buying here.

Remember, if they even think of acting like our government does, they take to the streets.

Most Americans don't have a clue but do have losts of debt, so they stay out of the streets.

Reaguns: Also ran up the largest deficit in history at the time....until his current protege made him look responsible. That's why he had to change the bond terms. Remember, that was to outspend the Russians on offense....which ended the USSR and is now coming back to haunt us. That last laugh is a bummer....

Rasta Shark, there is a difference between young and immature. To most of us you sound young and inexperienced because you are, (and we have kids your age) while we are older, more experienced and more devious. There's nothing wrong with that, we all were young at one point, but now we know age and experience beats youth and skill every time.

Experience is what tells us to take our time...like the old bull on the hill. LOL.

Executive orders. No toothless lame duck with less than 20% approval ratings is going to challenge the Congress controlled by the opposing party in an election year and doom his party's candidate to utter annihilation. They need California to win and that would put a fork in it.

married people with children live longer and are healthier and happier than single people. if you doubt me i will try to look up the source, but it is well documented...there is no more magical moment than looking into your child's eyes for the first time...i will be doing so for the second time in less than one month...

as n2son said, to each his own...

Kaimu: Question Authority....
Was in block letters on the Crabshell Alliance shirts we wore while being arrested for civil disobedience at the WPPSS Satsop nuke project in the 80's.
Later to become the largest bond default in American history (at least at the time).

They dropped the charges because they couldn't find a jury to prosecute us, being that the thing was running so far over budget that old folks from the Grange were joining us.
The only time I've ever worn matching bracelets...courtesy of the Gray's Harbor sheriff's office....

Okay - SNDK has been mentioned a lot on this board this year. Why all the optimism? Seems like these flash drives have been about as commoditized as they can get.

I was at a friends house recently who had just returned from a professional conference. She came home with a goodie bag with about 5 different 1GB USB flash drives that were given away as promo freebies. Is there any innovation or technology behind this company? Is the moat deep or wide or is there a moat at all?

PS........I am eyeing August puts on AAPL but have not pulled the trigger. If you don't have an Ipod or an Imac already (doesn't everyone who wants and Ipod already have one?), who has the disposable cash to buy these luxury items? If disposable incomes are shrinking, how can the outlook be good?

I've read that too Rob. Congratulations.

HS in a special bulletin advises a major global upheaval (runaway infla + derivatives/credit collapse) is now underway. Ditch US$ for govt bonds (any except US) & 1/2 assets in gold incl 15% physical gold.

norm- i agree...china may edge up on/overtake US GDP in twenty years, but the US will not be giving up its position as the political and economic giant of the world anytime soon, not in my lifetime nor that of my kids-> it will take several generations for china to establish the kind of entrenched systems (political, educational, psychological even) required for dominance...to use craig's analogy, the US is way ahead in maturity at this point...jim rogers may advocate moving to asia, but i'm quite happy where i am...

I am self involved, but remember this...We are each a product of our environment and of our circumstances. What I offer as "advice for staying young" may be nothing more than the particular set of outcomes I've wound up with. There was nothing inevitable in any of this. I could have gotten married young and had kids and a mortgage, but I chose not to. I might have chosen TO, however, in which case I probably wouldn't be here now with you guys. I might have gotten into law school but I didn't. Or I might have had a grandfather who founded a widget factory and be lying on the next beach over from Bill as we speak, but that was not my fate either. Perhaps, (and I realize I speak as though all genuine economic opportunity lies in some mythic past, which is only partly true) my dad might have gotten rich in real estate instead of going broke. It is such a fine line betweeen stupid and clever. Each of us are, despite all our wishes and efforts to the contrary, just floating on a sea of circumstance. But you're right. I am in many ways a closed circuit, a self absorbed hedonist who existed for a long time purely on the pleasure principle. But I'm trying to find deeper reasons to live. They're hard to find though.

And I wish you all a very pleasurable weekend.

Telestar3d, Aurator:

The problems with the lack of oil infrastructure were knowns years ago. However, oil plunged 40% over 6 months starting July 2006. I don't think the world's demand for oil dropped 40% during that period, and it sure did not tripple since then. Whenever investors compress future fears into the present, a bubble happens, but it always bursts. I heard that Bush gave Congress an ultimatum to allow for off-shore oil drilling by July 4. If Congress does not do it, he may well state that oil at $150 is a national emergency and sign an executive order for that. Or make other changes in the law.

Isn't it strange that while the media between mid-march and mid-may was full of people saying that the worst is behind, right now the media is decisively negative? Nobody knows the true state of the financial companies (since no one knows how many houses will be foreclosed and at what prices the banks will have to sell these houses), and so the financial stocks are easily manipulated. Right now, the manipulation is obviously down, with "OIL CRISIS" written on every screen. Why would those who own the media do this know? The only explanation is that they want to take the market up soon and collapse the oil price.

DavidV

craig - thanks.
shark - not meant to be personal, please do not take it that way. i enjoy your posts and thanks for putting it all out there. I hope you find what you are looking for. Where's that Taoist guy when you need 'em? :)

shark may be young and immature, but my bet is he would take a bullet to rescue a stranger...

david- i think you're right...headlines are never contrarian, they always lagging indicators...most of the time writers like to project continuation of the present trend(s)...

you just gotta marry the right one. I got it right the second time and I am in for the duration of the performance.

Craig:

If Bush signs an executive order and the oil price collapses (they can always jump-start the process by selling some oil from the strategic petrolium reserve) and the market shoots up, both he and McCain (who is fully backing Bush on this issue) will be National Heros who saved the Nation from the doom. They have already prepared the stage for it by taking DOW down to almost 11000 and oil up to almost $150. Think about it.

DavidV

rob d: :)
I leave to chill in the sun and then I get invoked... Seriously come up here and join me at the Taos solar music festival, It's the weekend and time to chill, or buy Bill a drink and enjoy the weekend... Consider the Bahama's, its awesome... and if whole system is coming down around our ears.. what better time to chill and find a nicer place to watch it all from. I am leaving in a month that's for sure...

All: on age... until you reach a 125 you are all still youngster in Taoist terms... Dont think of age as a badge of honor, Age is a far more complicated subject than appearance and attitude. Age is about letting it go.

Then you discover time doesn't exist and all ages are equal...Having strengths at all times. However, if you chase dollars... then you typically let time get in your way and you age faster... Its a choice in the end. Let it matter and you taste dust far too fast.. or drop it and discover there is more in the moment than a thousand lifetimes.

Wisdom has nothing to do with age... Look at Bush to prove that point...

Wisdom is patience.

On taking anything personal here in these posts: Its a community, a family. Show me any family that doesn't bicker and banter? Part of the fun here is to let it go at times...

It will help in your trading also and also prevent a few ulcers about now.

I suspect most of the people here would defend Bill and fellow posters, shark etc when push comes to shove.

I would rather be proud of that than despair over a few jabs here and there.

Shark: when you say "But I'm trying to find deeper reasons to live. "

We are each our own reason to live. You might have explored various hedonistic paths... but in the expression of shark many other versions exist.

It just sounds like you are the point of switching over to discover new version of shark. In my teaching others how to transform, it takes 3 to 7 years to switch and find peace in a new self. So you have be willing to be patient and also open to explore.

Its just a question of test driving out different versions of yourself.. no one has the ultimate answer since it's a series of ever changing answers in the journey itself. Look to your journey and not the destination. In doing so you will find deep side trips which will lead you to acceptable answers in a non hedonistic way.

Just don't buy into a pre-define package of yourself.. All Dealers (be a car dealer, broker or a religion) just take people for a ride...

something for everyone I suppose

anyways
peace

Here's a New Scientist article on 'how to live to 100'.

http://tinyurl.com/y9bnpj

"Being sociable looks like one of the best ways to add years to your life. Relationships with family, friends, neighbours, even pets, will all do the trick, but the biggest longevity boost seems to come from marriage or an equivalent significant-other relationship."

As for kids, could have sworn i saw something saying more kids = shorter lifespan, though I can't find it now. I love my kids, but sometimes I feel days being shaved off ;)

Rob,

I just had my first 12 weeks ago. You got it right. Cheers bro.

rob d: congrats on new baby on the way, thats awesome

hardest Job on the planet being a parent, but still worth it strangely enough

You guys are great. Thanks for being there and being you.

Dudes: Oil from offshore would be available in 1-6 years. 10 years is according to the Dems who stay on talking points by saying, "We can't drill our way out of this..."

Eric Bolling article:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10423027/1/bolling-how-to-solve-the-oil-crisis.html

David, If Bush could simply sign an executive order he would have already instead of appealing to Congress to take it up a week ago.

Acting as a monarch would wound McCain as he is tied to Bush's policies and is trying to get some seperation. Tough times for Republicans this election.

As I wrote a few days ago, California independents oppose offshore drilling two to one.
Have you seen the youngish/attractive *women* he has as spokespersons lately? They're trying like hell to cleave off some of those Clinton women....what they refer to as Reagan Democrats....independents....most of whom reside in California.
They won't act unilaterally because that would undo any of their efforts to appeal to those voters. And it would be stopped by Congress.
Only one Dem has mentioned favoring offshore drilling, and that was for Nat Gas, not oil...Jim Web of Virginia.

Everyone talks about swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, but those will be meaningless if they lose California, a must win for them to have any chance......unless Barack puts on a stupid looking helmet and takes a tank ride.....

And all it will take to undo any talk of drilling is already upon us. Notice the market today? Oil demand destruction as we type here.

We've been here before and I don't see any platforms off Florida.

Married people with children might have lived longer, but me thinks many are going to get to watch their kids suffer quite a bit over the next few years.

Vad - Oddly enough, my English ancestors were miners--first lead, and then when the lead at Hurst played out in the 1840's, they shifted to coal. ~OG

BTW Shark, I could have given hedonist lessons when I was in my 30's....no worries...have fun while you can. It didn't quite live up to my late teens and twenties in the 70's though...
Now THAT was fun.

Life has noticeable stages and you see that when you look back. The trick is looking forward, and then it's a little murky.

Casey offers some good advice, just enjoy the ride. The scenery changes as does your perspective. Enjoy.

Birini on Bloomburg talking about the VIX. I didn't understand a word he said. Anyone ever heard him off the helium bottle?

I appreciate the Bolling article. However the rig builders are booked years out. If Bush signs the exec order to drill, where are the riga going to come from?

Bolling is supposed to be a genuis trader, but I follow him on Fox and he's been wrong 50%, and cannot even debate someone like Peter Schiff without coming off as clueless. He's good enough for Maybach tho.

Yes, but it's the people at RIG with whom he was speaking.

ATW is a driller on fire. I've been frustrated trying to get in on a dip.

Guess the question is, what kind of backlog does RIG have? That's deep water too, if I understand. (Own the stock). I believe someone like DO is a shallow water driller and we would need those rigs as well.

Then there's all the support stuff like OII, SLB, HAL. If they are flat out, then that is just as much peak oil creating, as drill rigs are.

Also bought some Seadrill for the Brazil play. Looking for that onderwater tree mfg to add as well.

"Married people with children might have lived longer, but me thinks many are going to get to watch their kids suffer quite a bit over the next few years.

Posted by: nemo at June 27, 2008 6:28 PM [link]"

I invest for two reasons.

1) Give my daughters a decent shot at life through education. This is now my first priority in life. I won't give them a silver spponfed education but I will do my best to get them through it with an acceptable debt load.

2) Be able to retire comfortably at some point hopefully before I die.

I'm a simple man and try to live my life in simple drama free terms. I'm thrifty (cheap?), I live within my means, I have no debt, I garden because it soothes me.

Shark owes no one any apologies. He is free to live his life as he sees fit. I certainly won't judge him because I have several friends just like him.

My life took a different path. It graced me with my daughters.

Thanks to Casey for putting it so well in his posts.

Now...I have held SKF and SRS since late March...still down 2% on SRS but SKF is up 30%. I'm hoping to keep gaining and hold at least until Tuesday for taxman reasons. I just would rather push my profits into next quarter. Mistake or not...I'll know more Monday.

But after the market stops dropping and begins to rally I don't know what to do. Fear of going long grips me.

Any suggestions from Bill's top 100 for a short term bear rally investment?

Thanks. I really like this board.

Howard Simons at Real Money Silver
One of the major differences between the current selloff and previous selloffs accompanied by high VIX readings is the lack of event risk.

This market is the result of environmental deterioration - poor earnings, heightened inflation expectations, continued credit risk - and not an event. Events can be reversed quickly; the environment cannot be. Therefore we should not look for the V-shaped bottom we have been trained to expect.

This is like the U.S. in the 1970s, or Japan after 1990: We are going to have years of going nowhere. Years. It is that bad. If the market expects this, paying up for put option protection is pointless; that's a tactical response to a strategic problem. The strategic response is to change your long-term asset allocation.

I do not expect to see a VIX spike in this environment until we see a single-day event-driven panic. Otherwise, we are going to see a low-volatility selloff indicating acceptance of reality

vinod- if that's true, then the only way to make any money will be short-term trading...

Not only short term, but in hedges to inflation and to credit risk....AKA as commodities, hard currencies like precious metals, oil, base metals, timber, coal, shorting banks, shorting LT bonds, etc. (inflation hedges) as interest rates will have to rise sooner or later to combat inflation and reduce the levels of fiat currency printed to support HB&B and a flagging economy and foreign war.

This blog has been aimed at this particular goal for as long as I've been reading and participating.

We will also be able to play both upside and particularly downside in this type of environment.

Some of these will be realtively long term, like the TOG.

anyone notice the large blocks of volume traded in some of the PM miners right before the close? (ie. UXG, KGC, AUY, etc)

Yes I did notice. In fact UXG did more volume today than it's done on nearly every other day of it's existence. What does it mean? Has an important bottom been made?

craig- hard currencies will include caviar, cashmere, and saffron...

Just saw this article off reddit, may impact some of the solar companies:

http://tinyurl.com/4puaov

"The US government is putting a hold on new solar energy projects on public land for two years so it can study the environmental impact of sun-driven plants."

Somebody's probably hedging losses.... bet there's a lot of margin calls going on...

BAC is below $25. I think I'm a buyer next week.... go countrywide...

Interesting week. Wish I'd have bought more gold & silver...

Maybe Bill Gates retiring has something to do with the pullback... cashing in his 401k? That would explain the drop in my BRKB.

Bill & Warren go to cash & metals... watch out...

2nd/craig
Yes, we may have to play short term and play price

ALOHA !!

David posted "However, oil plunged 40% over 6 months starting July 2006."

That was due to pure manipulation by Goldman Sachs when they "re-weighted" oil as part of their GSCI-Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

I have already mentioned two potential scenarios last month whereby manipulations may rally the USDX and crash the WTIC price.

Re-weighting the GSCI again would pressure crude prices lower and offering a tax amnesty for foreign US Corporations to repatriate US dollars would rally the USDX, which also happened back in 2005 when Warren Buffet was HOT on his $19USDbillion bet to short the USDX. Well, Bush timed that so Buffet lost his ass on that trade and you haven't heard Buffet talk publicly again about shorting the USDX since then. I believe US Corporations were allowed to repatriate profits for a one time tax discount rate of 5%. Naturally they all jumped at the chance to pay a discount 5% rate and converted their foreign currency profits into US Dollars pronto and that drove the USDX up at a time when Buffet was yelling from the treetops to short the USDX! That's a great example of how political power trumps financial power!

We may never know for sure but I believe the US government forced Buffet to hand over his 130mil ounces of silver in trade for not probing his "GeneralRe" company. The SEC probe was announced ... the silver was exchanged ... and then the probe just faded away into the ether that is the US financial media's collective amnesia! Presto-Changeo and the COMEX had its silver inventories restored by about 130mil silver ounces the next week and the launch of SLV was green lighted! Remember the US Treasury sold off all its strategic silver reserves decades ago, so the USA has NO silver reserves. China has all those ... I also might add that the US Treasury/COMEX got a silver reserve boost from a long forgotten silver stash located at the labs at Los Alamos when they discovered huge "silver windings" from an old WW2 project back in 2006. I mean these guys are scraping the bottom of the barrel for those COMEX silver supplies. China isn't because silver was China's choice for backing their currency for thousands of years. The US Treasury chose GOLD. Does the US Treasury still have 32,000 tons of gold reserves left? NO ... Still no independent audit has been performed since 1951 so that in itself is suspicious. US Gold reserves supposedly cannot be sold without the approval of the US Congress, but the US Constitution says nothing about "swapping and loaning and leasing"! It all boils down to WHATS IN THE VAULT!!! Can we get back gold we swapped or loaned or leased that was then sold into the market? I don't know because I could not tell you who the counterparty is and if that counterparty is "gold solvent"! Kind of like the derivatives counterparties and there is no "gold insurer" because you can't print gold! Its easy to cover derivatives losses for these big US Banks ... just print more US Pesos!

ALOHA !!

This info from Jim Sinclair website illustrates a shift from false wealth(paper) to real wealth(hard assets)that shifted into first gear over the past year.

The list below does not include the losses on the USDX, but a trip to Berlin and that becomes crystal clear!

READ ON:
Score Board -- percentage change for the year, so far, in various items:

HARD ASSETS
* Crude oil up 42.5%
* Ethanol up 20.7%
* Heating oil up 43.9%
* Natural gas up 76.5%
* Unleaded gas up 39.5%
* Cattle up 1.0%
* Corn up 58.8%
* Soy beans up; 26.4%
* Coffee up 5.9%
* Aluminum up 32.7%
* Copper up 25.7%
* Platinum up 33.4%
* Gold up 6.0%
* Silver up 13.4%.

PAPER
* S&P 500 down 10.24%
* Frankfurt DAX down 18.32%
* London FTSE down 12.23%
* Paris CAC down 19.64%
* Hong Kong Hang Sang down 18.33%.
* Tokyo Nikkei down 9.47%
* Singapore Straits down 14.04%.
* Seoul Composite down 9.57%
* Sydney All Ordinary down 15.76%
* Taipei Telex down 7.40%

ALOHA !!

I really do not know how people in places like Houston, Texas can afford to turn on their air conditioning this Summer, especially the elderly. Then there will be the heating oil costs for next Winter. Anybody live in Houston, Texas get their electric bill yet?

History shows that people will not just lie down and die ... they take to the streets! I haven't seen it yet in America, but its coming and I am sure Bush has made arrangements for such a scenario ... Welcome to the USSA ... Perhaps shares in US GULAG manufacturing companies would be a good future bet! We, the USA, the home of the Free and the Brave, already imprison more people than any other country in the World so I would say there is a trend! As the US Peso devalues more prisons are built! Its all a part of EMPIRE!

Good call, Kaimu. But shouldn't the USA be known as The Home of the Weak and the Slave???

This entire, disgraceful episode takes me back to the period following WWII when corporate interests were subjugated to the will of the people; when the top marginal tax rate on income was c. 70% (only for the oinkers) and the average person could afford to buy those things needed for a rewarding life. That persisted from Roosevelt through Johnson and the momentum carried us up to 1980.

Then came Reagan who promised to increase military expenditures, lower taxes AND decrease the National Debt (which was just UNDER one trillion dollars). Obviously, anyone who voted for that block of swiss cheese had failed third-grade arithmetic (as was so eloquently proven over the next eight years when the selfsame National Debt reached THREE TRILLION dollars). Interesting historical point: the Teamsters crossed party lines to support Reagan, which proved fatal for the Dems...I wonder if they would like to have those votes back today!!! In 1980, people were alarmed over how much truck drivers were earning; today the only ones who share that concern are the food pantry volunteers who help feed them.

But the tectonic shift which has occurred SINCE 1980 is the TOTAL CORPORATE DOMINANCE of the U.S., with its rightful owners (the citizenry) thoroughly emasculated. The mechanisms of reason and rationality which were designed to prevent a total disintegration of economic balance have been systematically dismembered; the worker is nothing more than chattel, and now his/her very middle-class existence is threatened.

To make matters worse, the Democratic Party, long the bastion of rationality for the common man, is dominated at least 50 percent (probably much more) by millionaires and corporate whores. EVERY U.S. Senator is a MILLIONAIRE! Where does Mr. Common Man turn now?????

Even as we celebrate the debt of gratitude we owe to those 1980 Teamsters, we are all on the road to joining them in their poverty!!!! All of which should indelibly teach us that believing capitalism can exist WITHOUT stringent limits and controls is at least as dumb as those 1980 numbskulls...and certainly destined to follow in their footsteps.

And the karmic wheel on the truck goes round and round, round and round, round and round....

So interesting to watch the truckers filling up in Tijuana....the landscape they can look forward to. The law of unintended consequences.
I have no mercy for them, they are getting their due.

A warning to those who will crawl into bed with strange bedfellows (be careful Shark!). :>)

Remember....NONE of US is in the top 2%.
KNOW who you are and with whom you stand. By simple math you will live and die with the remaining 98% for better or worse. Those are the people you stand with...and either perish or thrive with. While most of us are not in the bottom of that class, neither do we have any business standing with the top 2% or doing their bidding. When someone mentions "class warfare" it behooves you to KNOW what group you are in and whom the enemy is.

BC - I just saw Sea-Ray / Boston Whaler adds on television, never seen that before!!! In fact, haven't seen many boating adds on television lately... Huge problems in this market, and I expect it's not going to be in the first recovery wave. Hope I'm wrong about this...

2nd: Don't forget coffee....said by some to be a larger commodity trade then oil.
My brother called from NJ yesterday to say he saw a report that there was a freeze in Brazil that will drive coffee prices even higher.

I don't think that will affect the Starbucks/Green Mtn./upper end coffee vendors as they use only the top few percent of the total coffee crop and usually have ongoing relationships/contracts with specific co-ops and Cup of Excellence winners and runners-up.
It's also important to distinguish between Arabica and Robusta, Robusta being the cheapo stuff they use in most of the freeze dried flavored junk...grown predominantly in low elevations like Vietnam.

craig- thanks for the heads up...my sister-in-law owns a restaurant in North Beach, and gets great prices already on Italian roast, but will stock up...

it's going to be edge-of-your-seat trading the next few weeks, especially if you go with bill's 11000/rally/10000 scenario...get ready to make big money...

Maybe a bit, but if it's already roasted you can only stock-up so much as it goes rancid...even the vaccuum packed stuff has a limited shelf life, which if she's in the biz she will already know. That's why I buy the green beans and roast it myself. It lasts much longer if properly stored, which ironically is in burlap or in humid conditions, vaccuum sealed.

"it's going to be edge-of-your-seat trading the next few weeks" LOL! My leather chair is already looking a little weird on the edge from yesterday....

Did you see CT's Saturday AM report?
I think after a minor oversold bounce we will be able to get short and stay that way for 1000 pts on the DOW and a corresponding fall in most world indices. If you liked slides as a kid it should be fun.

Karma: too bad most people don't understand Karma, It a lesson in kindness: to discover connection and wholeness.

Hard to find good karma when busy trying to dominate others, or pretending to be someone else...

Change: Its going go get far more crazy. However, consider this: For many they will look at whats happening now as the "best" of times. If that's the case shouldn't we embrace that also and make it more?

Its not a time to be nervous, its a time to be aware. To shift to what one feels is "right". Its a extreme time of opportunity. So work towards that opportunity and change. This site does a good job of sharing knowledge for awareness... but don't forget to move along with any awareness you gain.

Social Reform: I hear lots of talk... and talk is very much a "prayer" hoping someone else will hear ...

In the end we are our actions, and those actions define: freedom, social equity, kindness etc, etc, etc

Whats Next:

I hear lots of talk, and some action also from members on this board: Thats great

BUT

We are near the silence, the pause before the shifts... It reminds me of my martial arts practice, where you drop all thought, all worry, in order to leap into the right attack and defense mode. Thinking kills you at these times. Instead it's a time to let go into the larger movements, use that larger energy around and spin it around to your personal advantage.

If you want to improve and kick the karmic cycle to the sky, help reform the system and also enjoy it

Then let loose of worry and fear: be personally aware and adjust accordingly in your actions now. Since later on after the fact... any adjustments you make will most likely not be of your own action and choosing but re-action instead.

Just a little Taoist perspective urging personal involvement and action in the now rather than in the rubble of aftershocks.

It means first and foremost being yourself and staying true to your ideals and not a pre-defined social package thrown down to fit everyone

It means helping those close to you to finding their own peace.

It means not giving in to fear now that we are at an Edge... And it is going to be a Hell of a ride down that slope... So might as well enjoy it rather than dread it... Its the same trip either way, This is the difference between opportunity and a crash.

Life doesn't get any more real than what we have now...

I am saying all this of this, since I realize its time for me to let go... so I am thinking out loud as I get ready myself for August. Its going to be a hell of tsunami to ride, and I plan to be surfing rather than tumbling.

So I am letting go now to be ready then.

Observations of collusion by financial television personalities, cannibalistic activity on The Street, and deepcapture blog attempting to expose the illegal practices are all great stuff that I'm sure will be clearly heard in Congress.

Congrats to these folks contributing to the cause.

This has nothing to do with speculation, and everything to do with what's currently wrong with wall street: illegal capitalization catalized by the sub-prime crisis.

Once Congress awakes, this great Black Mamba unleashed on the street will soon find it's poison mouse.

“it's going to be edge-of-your-seat trading the next few weeks, especially if you go with bill's 11000/rally/10000 scenario...get ready to make big money...”
Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 28, 2008 11:41 AM [link]

“I think after a minor oversold bounce we will be able to get short and stay that way for 1000 pts on the DOW and a corresponding fall in most world indices. If you liked slides as a kid it should be fun.”
Posted by: Craig at June 28, 2008 11:55 AM [link]

Admire both of your track records. Sounds like a plan.

ALOHA !!

Who owns a lot of the US Bank sector shares? The US Bank employees and pension funds is the answer. Here is why there will be a lot of "long term" investors taking to the streets!

Look what's happening to the loyal existing shareholders ... a perpetual "short" position is being embedded thanks to management. Management's bonuses are more important and what is management doing with their shares?

ON THE DEATH SPIRAL
The list is growing shorter. But there were at least some smart investors who noted the downward trend and successfully negotiated for downside protection. We know of at least two cases (though there are doubtless others); namely, Merrill Lynch’s $12.8 billion investment from Temasek (the Singapore sovereign wealth fund) and Washington Mutual’s $7 billion raise from TPG (a private equity firm). Quite unbeknownst to the general public at the time, downside protection was built into these equity raises to protect these investors.

They are called “look back” provisions or “full ratchet” compensation. We believe it is more accurate to call them “death spiral” securities. They work as follows. The investors in the
equity raise would have their investment "protected” by a provision which states that should the bank afterwards raise money at a lower price than what they paid, these investors would
be compensated retroactively by having their initial investment priced at this lower price,
thereby being issued new shares for free. It doesn’t take a mathematician to see how these
provisions can result in massive dilution should the bank subsequently raise even a paltry
amount of capital. A new offering will trigger a lower price because of the dilution it would
cause, which would trigger even more dilution because of the lower price, which would then
trigger an even lower price because of the even higher dilution, etc. This is why we call such
securities a death spiral. They hurt the price of any and all future equity offerings and open
the door for potentially limitless dilution of existing shareholders if and when the bank goes
to the markets for more capital at ever-lower prices.

However, unless the bank goes bankrupt, these investors can’t lose. And we already know
to what lengths the Fed will go to prevent a banking bankruptcy. It’s heads I win, tails I win.
They can even short the stock in the expectation that it will go down and still not lose. At the
next financing, which is sure to come, they will be made whole... even making money on the
short! It’s a perverse situation. Even if they don’t short (or aren’t allowed to short) they still can’t lose. It’s like being given a free put option written by existing shareholders. They get
all the upside and existing shareholders (insult to injury) pay them on the downside! It’s the
worst way to raise equity. We wouldn’t even call it equity. It comes at a tremendous cost to
the already beaten up shareholders of these financial institutions. How did this happen?
Because these are “private” transactions, and thus no prospectus was required at the time of
the offering. The banks disclosed only what they wanted to disclose. It is only after the fact,
in the footnotes of subsequent 10-Q’s, that shareholders (if they dig deep enough) will
realize that they got nailed/ratcheted/screwed. How many other financings were done on
this basis? Only time will tell.END

This is a link to a transcript of an interview by Jim Puplava about Naked Short Selling and the tactics used against traders with reference to Canadin Junior miners among others.The part of the transcript that I am referring is entitled ..
Crime of The Century Part V.
I found it informative , maybe others might too, so here is the link.

http://tinyurl.com/5k8zub

T. Rowe Price's CIO says now's the time to BUY AND HOLD:

"Sentiment is so negative right now that you can't help but make money in some of these companies if you take a three-year, buy-and-hold horizon," Brian Rogers told attendees of the Morningstar Investment Conference. He expects it will take the next couple of years for the market to recover.

http://tinyurl.com/5w64gt

Todd Harrison, on the other hand, is in 100% CASH:

http://tinyurl.com/6c5mql

my take->

i've always liked harrison's approach to the market, whereas i know nothing about brian rogers...harrison has no axe to grind and nothing vested in recommending exposure or non-exposure; i'll let you decide whether rogers has a vested interest in buy-and-hold...

i'm thinking hard about cutting my longs (refiners and airlines) here, letting DUG ride, undecided about china, going to cash otherwise, and daytrading until we hit what feels like capitulation...

any other ideas?

2nd,

As long as the market keeps going down I keep my SKF and SRS. As soon as it shows signs of a rally I bail and go cash.

I don't know what to do after that. Any longs will be very short term quick on the sell trigger stuff.

If a significant rally occurs (say DJIA 13,000 again for example) I evaluate and probably load up on shorts.

I'm afraid in my short tenure investing I've been biased to the short side and that will affect me for years.

I just don't see what will drive the market out of this until like Mr. Cara says the banks come clean and transparent.

That is never going to happen.

Sorry, no ideas just questions...capitulation isn't here yet. What the market looks like after it comes is anybodies guess. I don't have a decent guess.

financials- tempted to take a swing, but afraid to...which normally would tip the scales in favor of going in...what stopped me on friday was the lack of (palpable) volatility/capitulation you would normally see at a trade-able bottom..

vinod's link to howard simons (956pm post) brings up the possbility of a prolonged low volatility sell-off, which also dissuades me from jumping in right now...never having traded in that kind of environment, can't say i would recognize a bottom in that landscape when i see it...so prudence suggests staying away until, let's say, todd harrison starts practicing swings in the batter's cage...

btw, if anyone gets a chance to catch bob brinker this weekend, would be interested to hear what he has to say...

"Karma: too bad most people don't understand Karma, It a lesson in kindness: to discover connection and wholeness."

I think this may be in the modern Taoist tradition or view. Some say this is a modern blend of the Tao, Confusionism and Buddhism. As my first exposure and teaching was through Hinduism, I'm using the Hindu idea of Karma, that of the seed, a good seed or bad seed (thought or deed), growing into "good" or "bad" fruit. The Buddhists might be more accurate in this Teamster example, saying the results may be "good" or "bad" depending on motivation, but that a well meaning but dillusional mind can create a bad result for the actor.

This seems to have been the results for the Teamsters, who may have been acting on good intention, but being mislead or illinformed, ultimately resulted in a "bad" result for the actors....at least for now (in the present).

It may not be that most people don't understand Karma, but that there are now so many variations, some being applied to Western teaching like Christianity, that they have adopted a more westernized view, some quite different from that communicated to Arjuna by Krishna in the Bhagavad Gita.

I think most probably think of it as the law of cause and effect, which is more or less the definition of Karma in a nutshell.

craig- you're right...we've always kept roasted coffee in the freezer, which apparently at best has a shelf-life of 2 months...we've just never bought 2 months' worth of coffee before...

Hey Casey, You could use the concept of Kharns in that each soul has a certain programming and that each life is an attempt to change/improve that programming for the next rotation.

Kaimu's post puts another wrinkle in the financials...death spiral, who wants to tinker with that?

Why not be happy missing a bottom and wait for them to turn into momentum plays where entries are more certain?

For instance, I was seriously pondering WM in the $4's, (maybe a small position?...like an option) but why take the chance when it would be easier to wait and make similar (maybe slightly lower) returns with less stress? I bet interest rates will give us clues as to when this might occur, not to mention charting bases.

If what they are saying is true, and we are going to see this process drawn out, then won't the financials have to base for sometime giving us the chance to see when they break out and giving us safer entries off extended bases?

2nd: There is a guy in eugene, OR...Sivitz, originator of Sivitz hot air roasting, that uses both vaccuum and freezer and has studies on both that has done a lot to revolutionize coffee storage. Maybe one of thoe Costco vaccuum packers and the freezer would extend the life of roasted coffee.

I just roast every other day or so and enjoy it at the peak of freshness. I probably have about 100 lbs of green beans and pick and choose among my favorites. Right now that's Brazil Daterra Farms Yellow Bourbon, I bought 25 lbs. and it came in a burlap sack. Next is Carmo De Minas (Translation from Portugese Jock?) Fazenda Esperanca, very smooth and floral.

Man, look at the commentary today!
Name another blog where can you read all of this stuff! The BC bench is a deep one.

karma- how many people spend much time contemplating what lies behind their religious beliefs? i tend to separate world religions into a) enlightened views of mankind arrived at by insightful observations of human nature (psychology, relationships, attitudes towards life and death) over a long period of time or b) truths revealed to us by a higher power...

i happen to believe in (b), but i also believe the thoughtful study and application of (a) can go a long way towards making us happier and more productive...and of course, there will be a lot of overlap between the two for the simple reason that we were not created to be mindless drones...

more thoughts on karma and the human mind-> it's entirely possible, of course, to walk through the valley of the shadow of death, or experience bliss, both in the space of one day, without leaving one's armchair...the mind is not only a terrible thing to waste, it's the key to whatever you want to accomplish or wherever you want to go...

i just need casey to rewrite this from the vantage point of standing on a porch watching the storm come in...

thanks all for the kind words...this is a good place to learn about all things, not just the markets.

since Brian Rogers was mentioned, read this and see why you may want to think twice about his advice...

www.dailywealth.com

then again, according to gurufocus.com :

Brian Rogers
Profile:
Brian Rogers has been the portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price Equity Income Fund (PRFDX) since its inception in 1985. By the end of 2007, his average annual total return was 12.86% since inception. The total assets under his management are nearly 24 billion.

Investing Philosophy:
Brian Rogers has a conservative, value-oriented way to pursue substantial dividend income and long-term capital growth potential. He invests in common stocks of established firms that are expected to pay above-average dividends and appear to be out of favor or undervalued.

i think it is important to look at the track record of commentators, as well as the place where THEIR money is.

This just in - The new off-shore oil platforms will be disquised as cell phone towers, in order to make them more palatable to our environment.

All ESLR investors on this site have probably read this [http://tinyurl.com/4puaov]:

"The US government is putting a hold on new solar energy projects on public land for two years so it can study the environmental impact of sun-driven plants. During the study, the BLM will not accept any new applications to lease public land for solar developments."

Does this "hold" affect ESLR or do they have enough land secured already?

Thanks,

DavidV

"karma- how many people spend much time contemplating what lies behind their religious beliefs?"

In reality? Not many. They adopt their parents ideas largely uninvestigated, (like they adopt politics), mainly because these concepts are (IMO) unfairly introduced much too early (in the still magical invisible friend stage) before Children develop cognitive reasoning and the ability to think critically. Notice how Santa Claus, tooth fairy, Easter Bunny, invisible friends tend to disappear around 7-8 yrs old?
The indoctrination wouldn't be nearly as successful if parents waited until 7, which I think would actually be healthier.

Then they get to their teens and twenties and you see more of an investigation by some. Then some others totally brainwashed and fanatical.
I think it's pretty cool that the Amish turn the kids loose into the real world as adolescents/young adults and give them the chance to see the rest of the world for themselves and then decide. Now THERE is faith.

When you start early in the magical stage invisible boogey man in the sky seems normal and what three, four or five year old can challenge it before it's too late?

I suspect some who either haven't been heavily indoctrinated under 7 (me), are the curious type (me), or that have had some bad experiences (relocated Catholic Priest?....not me), will be a good number of those examining other world religions and philosophies outside of what was taught in their family.

CP: As long as we get five bars and broadband, right? :>)

As for the trading plan, I don't want to be caught short in another rally, and so I am mostly long now [Junior miners, SLW, ESLR and VLO that I picked up on Friday before the close, and a large TLT short], and only have some July Lehman puts (that are up about 50% now) that will gain if the market goes down. If the market turns around, my losses will be limited to these puts, which isn't much.

I think the market is close to turning around (this week or the next week at the latest) and DOW might rally to 11700 as an oversold bounce or to 14000 if the lawmakers find a way to bring oil down [As Kaimu noted, political power always trumps economic power, and $140 oil is not in US interests]. Since lawmakers can obviously do this, the only explanation I have for why they haven't done it already is because they want to pass some controversial law that requires high oil prices to convince the opposition (such as drilling in environmentally protected areas).

DavidV

Craig,

Living here, in the heart of the Amish Country, another cool thing about the Amish is their use of horse and buggy bumper stickers.

1) "My Other Vehicle Is An Oxcart"

2) "I May Be Amish But I Slept With Harrison Ford"

3) "Manure Happens"

;^)

Regards

2nd: I was more agnostic until my Daughter got in the running start program and was going to Jr. College and high school concurrently, when she brought home books for her college writing class to write critiques, etc. for.

One of the better books was, "Atheism, The Case Against God", which presented some interesting and logical arguments against a supernatural being, or at least why a supernatural being isn't necessary to explain our existence and life. If you're the curious (and or confident) type it's an excellent read.

Printed on the old style manual printers with hand set type...right? :>)

Craig - Five bars and broadband will pay for the new platforms.

The only thing that worries me about being net long now is that the memory of the March-May rally is still fresh. Do others feel like that? Maybe this is just my situation, since I was accumulating shorts throughout that rally, had to fight myself not to feel pain about my losing shorts, and at the end I was closing my shorts as soon as I saw some gain on each bunch of shares, making very little profit over the last 3 months as a result (and only EOD yesterday my fear switched from that of being short to that of being long). Maybe those who went long before DOW dropped through 12500 have suffered enough already, and for them the market feels like a full capitulation and a turnaround is fully justified. This blog has a distinct short bias, and so we may not be able to gauge the market emotions very accurately.

DavidV

Anyone thinking about DZZ as a short on oil? This might perform better than DUG....

I just looked at the key statistics for UXG, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UXG, and saw that as of May 27, there were 3.68M shares short, but in the prior month, there were 3.61M shares short. How can a short position in UXG increase? I thought that shorting a stock below $5 is not allowed, and so once a short is closed, it cannot be reopened as long as the stock stays below $5. Can someone please explain this?

Thanks,

DavidV

Karma: One thing for sure Karma is very much a Hindu concept: others have taken it and run with it (including Taoist's) with their own spin.

2nd: Too tired to write you a poetic version at the moment. My mind is totally spinning on another unrelated poetic thought.

From stardust and back into stardust
as we shift in dreams and form

but Kurt Vonnegut put it nicely when he said:

"So it goes"

Its really about how we spin in our own wonder and exploration... concepts as Karma and others are just there to help give some perspective and sort it out enough to move forward in a reasonable manner when dealing with thousands and millions of other seekers all bouncing about in the light... or the dark (again depending on perspective)

Craig: You hit a big part of the issue for people: they adopt their parents spiritual beliefs or the larger culture beliefs.. and then when it doesn't fit... then you have major soul searching issues and such. Religions try to be one size fit all systems... and that just doesn't work very well. I spend alot of time teaching people how to adopt their own spiritual belief and it's a full time job at least.

Nemo: I like that. I forgot about that idea actually. I remember coming across that a long time ago. Not a bad way of putting it.

All I know is deep down I can feel myself relaxing and getting into a different simpler place all around in life. I don't pretend to know what will happen, but we all feel that social-economic change cascading down on us that's for sure.

DavidV, Don Worden's daily market commentary suggests that the Nasdaq 100 had a reversal on Friday, implying a bounce that may allow new short positions later. Still shows all US markets currently in downtrends in all time frames - sort of fits your scenario.

OT (or should I say OK - Off Karma), I've been wondering about the sudden pop in the price of Gold right at the Comex open on Thursday. I'm thinking that it was probably a broker closing out an unmet margin call, since it was such a violent move, and thus the position closed was a short position. Since gold at that point was a bit trendless, the unmet margin call may have been against another position in the same account which I'm guessing was a long stocks which would almost certainly be under water. I don't trade futures, so I'm naive in this area. Can anyone comment as to whether that makes sense, and also whether there may be other similar positions/situations that have the potential to induce large moves elsewhere.

David - I've been accumulating longs for the last couple of weeks in anticipation of a rally, and now considering commodities shorts for next week if oil takes a bath.

Without longs, one can sure loose his shorts in a rally.

David- you'll be happy to know that i've had a short oil/long china+the broad market bias for a couple of weeks now, and have been paying the price for that outlook...i'm getting ready to throw in the towel on those positions (to protect what are reasonably nice gains YTD)...the last time i can recall throwing in the towel was on QID just before (exactly one day before, to be exact) it started to take off...

another sentiment indicator in favor of longs is that doug (big bear) kass went short oil/long financials on may 29:

http://tinyurl.com/6hr3qd

and has been adding to financials since (sorry, no direct link to his latest on that subject)...so he's been hurting for a month...

so if you're short oil/long otherwise right now, i would say you're in pretty good shape...

I am back from Bryce Canyon in Utah and I wanted to share these timely words from Lyndon Baines Johnson on a plaque at the park:

"If future generations are to remember us more with gratitude than sorrow, we must achieve more than just the miracles of technology. We must also leave them a glimpse of the world as it was created, not just as it looked when we got through with it."

casey- that's OK...sounds as if your take on the market right now is close to that of howard simons-> it's not so much a storm you see coming in, it's a storm that heralds the beginning of storm SEASON...buy-and-holders will be buffeted, smart players are moving to the sidelines, and only yahoos will be out drinking and driving...

Bill asked in todays report: "I wonder if there is a similar need to drill offshore Monaco or the Isle of Capri?:

I suppose if broadband and cell reception need improvement, this might be advised.

Kaimu
Re Death spirals and dilution

An example of dilution without the SWFs s in the financial sector:
BankUnited BKUNA has, within the span of one month at two special shareholder meetings, quintupled their authorized shares outstanding in Class A stock from 100mil to 500mil. The execs will give up their supervoting stock as well so that they may float a $400mil offering.
Their pursuit of "alternative sources" of capital stems from private equity fund interest in the bank earlier in the year. According to yesterday's WSJ article on the Fed allowing PE funds to increase positions in banks, BKUNA spurned the PE funds.

Is this the next step for regionals? Is it that only the money center banks get the SWF attention?

Stu

2nd ave

Yup I think storm season is for four years however, and height of the storms will be in 2010 when retirement funds begin to dissipate and people panic.

I will actually liquidate all my retirement funds starting 2009 and shift all those funds in my kids college funds (Get program) which is inflation proof. I figure my children's education is my retirement.

So it goes.

I see a series of perfect storms colliding together, in a series of economic events. I also believe Bill is spot on for his current short term forecasts. But I think Bill is more optimistic in the long term. While, I am a Optimist, I have recently trained myself to accept pessimistic views at the moment (yin / Yang) to more balance my view to what is happening to the world. Otherwise I would be too aggressive in my investments.. Tempering I suppose.

I also think Solar Companies and Google soon will be a hell of an investment. But I am waiting for the market storms to buffet down prices first.

the deals are out there, even in these storms brewing , IN fact I think we are in great times to invest if you are willing to play by new rules...

"It means not giving in to fear now that we are at an Edge...and it is going to be a Hell of a ride down that slope.....So might as well enjoy it rather than dread it....It's the same trip either way......" posted by Casey Kochmer June, 28, 12:52
Thank you Casey. I find your comments very calming and insightful. I hope you continue to post during your new life adventures.

I just finished reading "Spend 'til The End" by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns ( their earlier book was "The Coming Generational Storm"). From the inside cover---"Spend til The End substitutes economic wisdom for the rules of dumb that currently pass for financial advice". Excellent read, as it honestly addresses and pokes holes in conventional financial planning beliefs. Highly recommend the book.

ALOHA !!

It's too bad LBJ wasn't thinking of "future generations" before he assigned over 58,000 kids to die in Vietnam. Still after his plan for the GREAT SOCIETY, some forty three years ago, we have more people in poverty now than we had in 1965 and an added $51USDtrillion debt from unfunded Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds. It is no wonder the LBJ tapes were sealed until 2006 ... Typical of most US political failures he was awarded the Presidential Medal Of Honor in 1980 at the height of our inflationary spiral where Fed Fund Rates were at 20%!!! We go broke he gets a medal ... Hummmm ...

We as a Nation we tend to repeat our failures more often than our successes, otherwise I wouldn't even mention this! Obviously we are failing more than we are succeeding or we wouldn't be walking the last steps of political and financial bankruptcy!

VIETNAM AND LBJ

If WE think they’re winning then you can imagine what THEY think!"---LBJ speaking with Robert McNamara about the Viet Cong (Recorded July 10,
1965 LBJ TAPES).

Does anyone here doubt that George Bush hasn't repeated the exact same quote to Cheney about Iraq?

President Johnson increasingly focused on the American military effort in Vietnam. He firmly believed in the "Domino Theory" and that his containment policy required America to make a serious effort to stop all Communist expansion. At Kennedy's death, there were 16,000 American military advisors in Vietnam. Johnson expanded their numbers and roles following the Gulf of Tonkin Incident (less than three weeks after the Republican Convention of 1964, which had nominated Barry Goldwater for President).

The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which gave the President the exclusive right to use military force without consulting the Senate, was based on a false pretext, as he later admitted.[36]. It was Johnson who began America's direct involvement in the ground war in Vietnam. By 1968 there were 550,000 American soldiers inside Vietnam; in 1967 and 1968 they were being killed at the rate of over 1000 a month.[37] During the Tet Offensive alone 1,800 US soldiers were killed and 18,000 were wounded within a two week period.

I won't even mention the cost in terms of US Dollars to prosecute LBJs misjudgments of Vietnam and the Domino Theory. In terms of inflation wars are the MOST expensive and unproductive activities we can engage in. Certainly LBJ set this Nation back 20 years financially and was the one main reason that Nixon had to take the World off the gold standard in 1971. Of course that single act put the USA and the World into our current fiat crisis from which all our current moral and financial ills originate.

What a tragedy to have George Bush visit Vietnam last year, a former draft dodger(hiding out in the National Guard), signing a trade agreement with the same Communists LBJ referred to in his "Domino Theory". LBJ was completely off the mark on "Communism" and almost 60,000 US soldiers paid the price for his misjudgment, so was every politician on Capital Hill who evoked fear of Communists. Now Communist nations are not only our top trading partners here in the USA but all of Europe is dependent on Russia for energy. We are dependent as a Nation on the ROC to fund our very existence on a daily basis.

LBJ and the Great Society

The Great Society program became Johnson's agenda for Congress in January 1965: aid to education, attack on disease, Medicare, urban renewal, beautification, conservation, development of depressed regions, a wide-scale fight against poverty, control and prevention of crime, and removal of obstacles to the right to vote. Congress, at times augmenting or amending, enacted many of Johnson's recommendations.

Kaimu,

LBJ, JFK, Eisenhower, Truman ... Nixon (gold standard) ... I sometimes wonder what the country would be like if Nixon won the election in 1960.

g034 - great cover on the bonds. Yesterday I started to sell into the strength again. Seems like a lot more downside than upside to bonds going forward. Using equity sell offs to position yourself into the TOG (for bonds) seems to make sense.

Hail Kaimu! Well, actually, and I'm sure this is the exception, the 1990 war was actually quite profitable. We got the Arab states to pay for it.

We used up alot of old ordnance, and put on a great airshow for our defense industry. Did wonders for sales.

Unfortunately, we mismanaged the aftermath. Frankly, from a Realpolitik point of view, Saddam was a good thing. He kept order in his country. He just needed that bitch slap.

Having said that, you can't blame him. After being his buddy and giving him that chemical weapon technology, we sell arms to the Iranians to get the hostages back.

Hello Bill,This is a link to an article by James Turk regarding the possible rate rise next Thursday by the European central bank and how, even if they do increase rates ,the dollar will probably slide lower. Unfortunately for the Dollar, probably true.http://tiny.cc/Xviki Bob

_ http://tiny.cc/Xviki bob.

Nemo said "Married people with children might have lived longer, but me thinks many are going to get to watch their kids suffer quite a bit over the next few years."

To those of us who have chosen to navel-gaze on a hot summer Saturday allow me to add my thoughts about "investing" in our children. I am so glad I chose to diversify beyond equities over the past 18 months by shifting into family loan/mortgage arrangements that now represent well over 1/3 of my invested assets. These registered agreements with two of my hard-working children are allowing them to realize their dreams of home ownership while providing my wife and myself with substantial retirement income. Talk
about betting on the jockey! These kids are serious about their future and appreciative of being given a leg up. It's a win-win situation. When was the last time your financial advisor told you how really much he/she appreciated your business?

muniman: can you please repeat what g034 said about bonds? I didn't see his posts on Friday or today.

Thanks,

DavidV

2nd_ave: why did you think it would make me happy to know that you had a long bias to the market for two weeks already? It seems like we are all getting to be friends on this site, and no one likes to see a friend hurt. I like the style of your comments very much (not just about the market, but also about society), and I hope you come out well from the current market mess.

DavidV

http://tinyurl.com/5cyzcc

Where bad data meets disbelief.

David- i was responding to your 614pm post:

"This blog has a distinct short bias, and so we may not be able to gauge the market emotions very accurately."

so simply saying i am very tuned in to the long side...sorry for the confusion...someone here once pointed out that blogging leaves you without the visual cues of face-to-face conversation-> many of my posts are not meant to be taken literally, and perhaps having emoticons available on this site would make communication less easily misunderstood...the comment you referred to was said with a wink and a smile, my man->i'll try to remember to add that next time ;)

David: I think he was referring to go34's warning to cover/take profits on short bond positions before this latest equity downdraft/flight to bonds.

I think this speaks directly to his expertise.
He clearly is a talented and vital part of the Cara Trading Team and when he speaks it pays to take him seriously. I followed his advice and closed out my RRPIX position with a nice profit.

ALOHA !!

Lets get this thing to 300! HA!!!

Now read this quote from a UBS manager ...
“As things change they also remain the same,” Mr. Gallichio begins. “What we face now in the firm as related to muni short term is classic Wall Street. In its core, it is trading versus sales, risk management versus client franchise.”

“As a firm we tell people we are client focused,” he went on. “So if the client is always right, then we should fix the problem this product has created in WM,” the firm’s wealth management unit, which includes retail investors. “To let WM and the firm as a whole go through costly litigation, the loss of investor CONFIDENCE and significant assets, the cost in management time, legal and compliance, IT spend, the total distraction from our core growth strategy and overall employee morale — will certainly be in excess of the multibillion-dollar hit to balance sheet we would take by just buying the rest of the assets from WM. I just don’t get it.”

The one item he leaves out in relation to "why" is his boss and his bosses boss ... "bonuses"!!! Surely through this meltdown in the ARPS(Auction Rate Preferred Shares)this sheds a whole lot of light on the CONFLICT OF INTEREST that threatens to undermine CONFIDENCE in Wall Street and major foreign banks alike. This quote was taken from the State Of Massachusetts lawsuit against UBS.

US Taxpayer money can swing both ways(AC/DC) ... The banks love taxpayer money to bail them out but HATE IT when taxpayers fund lawsuits against them! All of Wall Street is setting themselves up for unending taxpayer funded lawsuits. I think the SEC should consider themselves on that list! IF only ... Well, lets add CNBC to that list! Surely the "appraisers" of Wall Street the S&P and FITCH and MOODYs must be full of nervous execs! As a big part of discovery this Massachusetts lawsuit is utilizing "e-mails" that UBS execs sent to each other. I am sure all through Wall Street there are board meetings going on to have sensitive e-mails do a MISSION IMPOSSIBLE and go into "self destruct" mode!

Now all of Wall Street is on the chopping block and it boils down to one word "CONFIDENCE"! Once that is lost they kiss any reform goodbye and lest you think this will only effect the BIG US Banks, think again. The one major component that holds a country's sovereign rating up is the honesty and strength of its banking system. Once that is gone then the entire country will suffer a Third World ranking not a triple AAA. Guess what? When that happens the US PESO will sink like a rock and then Americans will experience their first true monetary crisis only US dollar hegemony will be a massive anchor not a life preserver!

Wall Street is playing with fire ... These guys have not connected the dots, because those dots extend far past their office window and their commute to Greenwich! The whole "enchilada" is up for grabs!

Here is the link to the entire article and if you read it you will get a better sense of the fear inside Wall Street right now. None of this inspires CONFIDENCE ...

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5dt79t

ALOHA !!

While the US Congress is on a witch hunt looking for rogue speculators and attacking oil execs they need not look too far for the real CRIMINALS ... in fact all they need is a mirror!

Here OPEC tells the US Congress AGAIN who is to blame! How many times does OPEC have to spell it out? The US Congress is a group of rich and spineless crooks who after nearly 100 years of power have embedded "fraud" and "corruption" into our Nation's government. This is why our Founding Fathers created a government of LESS not MORE power. If only voters would realize that government is our worst enemy and the only way we will ever bring long lasting CHANGE to the USA is to clean house. BIG GOVERNMENT never solved anything ... Dosvadanya Commrades!

READ ON:
Don’t blame spike on oil speculators Boston Herald

OPEC Leader Khelil Says Dollar Will Drive Oil to $170 (Update1)
Bloomberg - 22 hours ago

By Ahmed Rouaba June 28 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Chakib Khelil predicted that the price of oil will climb to $170 a barrel before the end of the year, citing the dollar's decline and political conflicts.

ALOHA !!

I was thinking about this yesterday as I was chasing some wild pigs off my property ...

I have spent a lifetime preparing myself to have nothing! I can honestly say that if I lost everything that I could still be happy.

Chasing the pigs brought that idea into my head and I have often thought what a relief it would be to go back to being a "hunter gatherer" instead of what I am now "gambler taxpayer"! I could easily fall into fishing all day and picking fruit and sleeping on the beach! All that is within a two mile walk here where I live.

Literally I will be sitting here making trades and blogging or researching and watching my portfolios and then I'll hear the pigs and run out and chase them! HA!! I never dreamed I'd be doing this here in Hawaii chasing pigs at the drop of a hat~~~

The other day I was thinking ... I can never be accused of being afraid of "risk" ... Just look where I live! I live in RISKVILLE!

ALOHA !!

YEHAW !!! 3-0-0 !!!

Sorry I just had to do that!!

So Casey is there something there in the TAO about chasing pigs? Is that like ECSTATIC DANCING? HA !!

Re: 301

This week, GBN.V posted stellar drill results after the close on Thursday.

They hit a 34m quartz vein with visible gold at various intervals.

They also pulled up a drill core with:

156.6 g/t over 2.76m and a small interval of 1,138 g/t over .37m.

I presume this would qualify GBN.V to be accepted into the Cara gold juniors watchlist. There's only gold here, no other metals or fertilizer or uranium or coal. Just gold.

I make comments to stockhouse on the subject of GBN.V regularily (lots of complaints due to a decline in the share price) but also charts. This week, my investment thesis is outlined:

http://tinyurl.com/5obx2z

Kaimu: lets do the check list

letting it all go: Taoist yep

dropping everything to chase pigs : Taoist yep

Rooting in with the land: Taoist

Rolling in the mud with the pig, while dancing: while illegal in 5 states... very Taoist ;)

Kaimu,

Is not 'chasing pigs' a metaphor for the big picture? We are always chasing something, whether fortune, fame, freedom, independence, respect?

Appreciate your posts.

Ron

Ahola! To Kaimu

There's a Taoist parable by a guy named Chuang Tzu called "The Smugs, the Snugs, and the Humpbacks" It talks about pigs in an allegorical way..Oh, here I found the part about the pigs:

…The snugs are lice on the bodies of hogs. They choose their abode in the long mane and hair of the hogs and believe themselves to be living in a grand palace with a big garden. They hide themselves in the corners, armpits, breasts and legs of the pigs and think that they are living in security. They do not realize that one day the butcher may come and rolling up his sleeve begin to lay hay under it and set fire to singe the pig, and both themselves and the pig will be scorched to death. This is to live within the limitations of their own choice. These are the snugs…

Sound familiar...

Thank you for the explanation, 2nd_ave -- I feel better now. :)

Since you have invested into ESLR -- do you think it will be affected by the gov't hold on solar permits I mentioned in my June 28, 5:37pm post?

Thanks,

David

ALOHA !!

Casey ... Thanks, I knew it was too "bizarre" to be abnormal! HA!!!

Ron ... Good point there! Chasing things is definitely a human attribute! We all are certainly chasing things here at Bill's Blog! Chasing knowledge about ourselves ...

nemo ... Thanks for the Master Chuang parable ... Master Chuang was the very first "anarchist" so he and our Founding Fathers had a lot in common. He spoke of "spontaneous order" and "the less governed the more free". Of course since he lived during the Warring States Period of the 4th century BC then such visions seem natural. Perhaps that's what we need as a Nation now ... a "letting go"? Anarchy has its place ...

Fransix - If gold were to double this week, what do you think the effect would be on jr's like GBN.V?

Not knowing much to anything about the logistics of mining in a swamp, GBN.V does sound more promising than some other jr's mentioned on Bill's blog... but instinct keeps me sitting on the fence.

Kaimu - Please use caution while chasing those ferrel hogs, one might just catch you!!!

Ecuador draft mining law -

Per http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/ the DRAFT law is favorable, not mandating joint venture with the gov't. Aurelian has traded strongly in recent days. I suspect that will continue until there's bad news on the the law or the constitutional assembly.

Bill,

Thanks for another great WIR. I especially liked the Wrap Up, which details a possible time frame and game plan for the coming months.

Shorting the financials has been like taking candy from a baby. When this is no longer a viable investment, I hope that I have learned enough about RSI and the flexibility that you espouse to continue my trading adventures in a profitable manner.

Thanks for all that you do.

Regards

In the WIR Bill wrote:

Have a good one. Meanwhile I’m having a Heineken, just to pay homage to the eventual losers. (LOL)

Remember that the stock Heineken (HEIA.AS) is in the accumulation zone. May be an interesting one.

Mark

[Bill Cara note: That may be, but I was more interested in correctly forecasting the game's winner. Earlier in the tournament, I saw offense, defense, goaltending and team play from Spain that was heads and shoulders the best, and today they proved it.]

MMMMhhhhhh...Do you think Bill would ammend his forecast if the price of oil has more to do with supply/demand then speculation/currency???

[Bill Cara note: If true, I might; but production and demand is down Y/Y and sinking further with the economy.]

Some random thoughts.....

Discourse has been excellent recently by both Bill (of course) and the many posters on this blog. There is an evolving respect for the clarity we can be attain through our exchange of ideas.

Regarding the markets next moves - the end of the month and end of quarter are upon us tomorrow. Indexes have been downright scary as of late and it feels to me that the recent levels of general hysteria over the kind of global economic impacts we are seeing have heightened. That is certainly not to say they have peaked - but that a fresh level of panic was established last week IMO.

Is it possible for the FED/HB&B to engineer another bear rally just yet? Would it most benefit HB&B to engineer a short term bear trap tomorrow? Could they wipe the slate clean after Q2 to engineer greater potential performance fees for July/Q3?

I think the game plan for tommorow would be to look to react to potential extreme volatility by purchasing market straddles - it is often in the time of extreme market panic and uncertainty that this play works best. Might be a good potential strategy to ponder over the course of this week.......

Regarding commodities/PMs, IF we see a retreat in oil in Q3 based on market panic/hysteria that helps put in a short term top - will the inflation hedge be forced to roll into precious metals? is there another preferred inflation hedge that will be able to provide a greater risk adjusted rate of return than PMs?

I must admit my bias in saying that I FEEL PMs and PM producers will deliver a better long term risk adjusted rate of return than oil does at this moment - that is not to say that oil does not do a rocket to $150-60, just to say that metals may provide more long term stability from this juncture.

Thanks for listening to my rants - I hope everyone had a great weekend and spent some time with those who matter most.

PS..........anxiously awaiting the spot market gold open price....

Kaimu: You dog :) you know more about Taoism than you let on. when you mention the

Warring States Period of the 4th century BC,

That's a very critical time point for Taoism as you must know. It's the point that what we would consider Modern Taoism rose out of the chaos in China to re-reinforce it's place in the Chinese social systems.

I mention this because right now, we are at a point in our history that is very comparable to the warring states period of China.

It is going to be interesting to see what arises out of our own warring states period of time.

Have fun with those pigs, If you catch enough you can used them like wild horses to pull a chariot around.

:) now there is an image!

Kinda' chicken and egg there Bill. Demand can only go as high as supply-I think. Is supply falling because production capacity is falling or the spigots are turned down? Having said that, why would the powers that be want to tell us the truth about supply anyway?

Casey: Wouldn't that be what the academics know about Taoism :)

Nemo: as a tradition Taoism has literature that goes back 5,000 years to the yellow emperor's text on herbal healing. It goes back even further than that in our verbal traditions in shamanic practice.

However, the warring states is a pretty powerful point as it forced the Taoist hermits to come out of hiding and place a primarily shamanic practice into the prose a very powerful philosophical system for academics and lay person both to follow.

I think this comparison to our times is important. Since while many of us are frustrated with whats happening. All of the chaos and change will have a similar effect on our culture. We will see people who would normally be quiet, come out, and place into modern words, new poetry to help people find peace in these times.

academics are too busy looking at the past... while in the now.. we are making a new future :)

People like Bill are making a difference reaching out and sharing... Thats what attracted my notice to this site: Bills honest attempt to sort things out for the average person. Bill and many others on this site are part of the change :)!

Back to the Tungusk I think. Kinda' scary actually...I find it interesting that the Taoist mystics have the same opinion of this period as those who adhere to the Mayan calendar claims (I always thought that maybe the calendar maker just retired :))

Academics sit in the stands and watch:)

I thought there only is now...

Plu cest Change plu cest le meme chose (My German is better)

Got this from a friend of mine. He's a tad right of Attila, but he's really not a bad guy As for my opinion, I can't tell the difference between the two parties:

Bill Phillips spent nearly 50 years in the US oil and gas industry; most of his career was with the Phillips Petroleum Company. Bill is a descendant of Frank Phillips. Frank Phillips, along with his brother Lee Eldas (L.E.) Phillips, Sr., founded the original Phillips Petroleum Company in 1917 in Bartlesville, OK. Do you remember Phillips 66 gas stations? Phillips Petroleum Company merged with Conoco, Inc. in 2002 to form the current ConocoPhillips oil company.

So, when Bill talks about oil and gas issues, I tend to listen -
very closely. I think that you will find Bill's thoughts and facts very revealing, very compelling and very difficult to argue with.

As you prepare to cast your crucial ballots this Fall, please think long and hard about the far-reaching, cumulative effects of the US political philosophies, policies and legislation that have contributed to the current and future US oil supply situation.

May 28, 2008

"Big Oil"
Did you know that the United States does NOT have any big oil companies.

It's true: the largest American oil company, Exxon Mobil, is only the
14th largest in the world, and is dwarfed by the really big oil companies--all owned by foreign governments or government-sponsored monopolies--that dominate the world's oil supply.

This graph below tells the story; you can barely see the American oil companies as minor players on the right side of the chart in gray.
The chart was presented to the House committee last week by Chevron.(Chart not available)

With 94% of the world's oil supply locked up by foreign governments, most of which are hostile to the United States, the relatively puny American oil companies do not have access to enough crude oil to significantly affect the market and help bring prices down. Thus, ExxonMobil, a "small" oil company, buys 90% of the crude oil that it refines for the U.S. market from the big players, i.e, mostly-hostile foreign governments. The price at the U.S. pump is rising because the price the big oil companies charge ExxonMobil and the other small American companies for crude oil is going up as the value of the American dollar goes down. They will eventually bleed this country into printing even more money and we will go into runway inflation once again as we did under the Carter Democratic reign.

This is obviously a tough situation for the American consumer. The irony is that it doesn't have to be that way. The United States--unlike, say, France--actually has vast petroleum reserves. It would be possible for American oil companies to develop those reserves, play a far bigger role in international markets, and deliver gas at the pump to American consumers at a much lower price, while creating many thousands of jobs for Americans. This would be infinitely preferable to shipping endless billions of dollars to Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela to be used in propping up their economies.

So, why doesn't it happen? Because the Democrat Party--aided, sadly, by a handful of Republicans--deliberately keeps gas prices high and our domestic oil companies small by putting most of our reserves off limits to development. China is now drilling in the Caribbean, off Cuba but our own companies are barred by law from developing large oil fields off the coasts of Florida and California. Enormous oil-shale deposits in the Rocky Mountain states could go a long way toward supplying American consumers' needs, but the Democratic Congress won't allow those resources to be developed. ANWR contains vast petroleum reserves, b ut we don't know how vast, because Congress, not wanting the American people to know how badly its policies are hurting our economy, has made it illegal to explore and map those reserves, let alone develop them.

In short, all Americans are paying a terrible price for the Democratic Party's perverse energy policies. I own some small interests in tiny, 4 barrel-per-day oil wells in Wyoming. We have 14 agencies that have iron-hand jurisdiction over us. If we drop any oil on the ground when the refinery truck comes to pick up oil from our holding tanks, we are fined. Yet down the road the state will spray thousands of gallons of used oil on a dirt road to control dirt. When it rains that oil runs into rivers and creeks. Yet a cup of oil on the ground at our wellhead is a $50,000 EPA fine plus additional fines from state regulating agencies.
They treat oil as if it were plutonium that has the potential to leak into the environment. We are fined if our dirt burms are not high enough around a holding tank, yet the truck that picks up our oil runs down the road at 60 mph with no burm around it. People wonder why there is no more exploration in this country. It's because of the regulators; people who have lived their whole lives doing nothing but imposing fines on small operators like us for doing mostly nothing.

So, America enjoy your $4.00 per gallon gasoline. Your dollar is now worth 0.62 Euro-Cents. The lack of American production of GNP, the massive trade deficit (as labor markets have moved overseas to fight insanely high union imposed labor costs in America) and the run away printing of money (backed by nothing of value here in America) has caused the dollar to become more worthless on the international market. And that's where our oil comes from. It's paid for with dollars that become more worthless everyday. If we had just kept par with the Euro we'd be paying $62 dollars per barrel for oil (42 gallons) or abou t $1.50 instead
of $2.50 a gallon for crude oil.

What the US government also does not tell you is that it is the leaseholder and royalty recipient of most oil production and receives 25% of the gross oil sales before we pay for electricity to lift the oil, propane to keep the oil-water separators from freezing in the winters. We

pay a pumper to visit each well everyday plus we have equipment failures all the time. We pay for that out of our 75% of gross sales. The government does not share in any expenses to run any production well.
So, if the Big Oil Companies are making record profits, then so is the federal government from it's 25% tax on every molecule of oil sold to a refinery in this country. Why isn't the government on the stand for "Record" profits? What you don't see is this 25% of the sales price of crude oil being siphoned away by the government. That money plus the road taxes, state taxes, etc. amounts to over $1 per gallon of gasoline you are buying while the governments only admit to about 50 cents per gallon.

To all you Democrats, when you go vote for your candidate, a blazing liberal like Barrack Hussein Obama or Hillary Clinton, just keep in mind that their liberal spending habits will further decrease the value of the American dollar on the world market and your gasoline costs will hike even

higher. As they introduce more give-away programs, raise taxes on everyone to pay people not to produce or work, your dollar will continue to dwindle on the world market and you will be paying $10.00 per gallon at

the next election. Cheap hydrocarbon fuel is all over. Enjoy! Enjoy the fruits of your decision to elect these folks when you are there in that voting booth and you stab your pin through a Democrat's name.

William "Bill" Phillips

David- ESLR almost has too much on its plate as it is...company may actually benefit from being able to ramp up capacity before signing any more new contracts...they also have substantial exposure in europe...i don't see a 2-year hold in the US on new projects (on public land) having much of an effect-> i think investors are more concerned with whether the company can find the financing to deliver on existing contracts...vinod may have a better answer?

SF Chronicle with an AP story on the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia:

http://tinyurl.com/5dk4wz

"Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Aramco, is spending $10 billion to build the infrastructure to pump 1.2 million barrels of oil per day by next June from the Khurais field and its two smaller neighbors. That alone would be more than the total individual production of OPEC members Qatar, Indonesia and Ecuador.

The project forms the centerpiece of the Saudi plan to increase the total amount of oil it can produce to 12.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2009 — up from a little more than 11 million barrels per day now."

David- btw, when i say i'm thinking hard about unloading my refiners/airlines next week, that's exactly what i mean-> in order to accurately trade based on sentiment, i need to be absolutely honest with myself...however, i am also (usually) able to simultaneously distance myself from that sentiment, and think whether i really want to act on it...

the fact that i'm always buying on extreme weakness helps me find that distance-> there's comfort in knowing that while one may be disconcerted with an early entry, the 98% of holders who bought higher can only feel worse...half kidding, of course...but only half...;)

The Psychology of A Triple Bottom

By Dr. Duru

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." Fool me thrice, and I must really be asking for it.

In January, the S&P 500 put in a climactic bottom with the VIX spiking to 37.57. The Federal Reserve stepped in with a surprise 75 basis points interest rate cut. In March, the S&P 500 put in another climactic bottom with the VIX spiking to 35.60. The Federal Reserve once again came to the rescue by sweeping the Bear Stearns mess under the JP Morgan rug. The Fed added another rate cut for good measure. The S&P 500 is now dangling directly above a 52-week and multi-year closing low again, and everyone is wondering why the VIX is not spiking in tandem. It is now sitting at a relatively low 23.44.

What new government intervention could be possible to further prop up this weakening stock market? A potential answer may be in oil since that is the latest crisis that has everyone's focus. So many people refuse to believe oil is really worth $140+. So many people believe speculators are up to no good and single-handedly sending prices higher (note we loved it when speculators drove the prices of technology stocks and then our homes up to ridiculous levels). I have to believe that if oil gets smacked down, even 10%, hope for the economy and the stock market will re-appear.

Regardless of the catalyst, think about the psychology of the triple bottom this way... Some group of sellers panicked in January and sold only to see the market bounce higher. These same sellers chased the bounce with new buys and added to the new group of sellers who panicked in March and sold. All of these sellers now refuse to get fooled yet again. This time, they will hold for a bounce and will come up with any reason to hold out hope - typically this is where you hear the pundits on TV switching to long-term thinking to justify their promotion of stocks. I am no trained psychologist, but if I am correct about my views, then of course the level of fear will be lower than what we saw earlier this year (of course, a study of past triple bottom patterns would help as well). There is confidence in these levels as support. Selling here has left a lot of people feeling stupid. We should see a bounce, as early as this week, that gives these folks one more chance to get out before the 52-week lows break decisively. THAT break should get the VIX really going. In the meantime, it makes sense to load up on puts while they remain relatively "cheap."

On Thursday, Fast Money guest technician Carter Worth provided some convincing rationale for why we should expect the S&P 500 to ultimately break (he starts at 11:15 in the video). He reminded me how our two lows this year have been effectively engineered by government intervention (sometimes called the Plunge Protection Team by cynics and bears alike). Worth's target for the S&P 500 is around 1200 which is the same target I drew out back in March. Even though that target is "only" 6.5% away from current levels, do not expect us to get there in a straight line. In an earlier missive, I outlined the technical case for a peaking S&P 500 AND included a note pointing to oversold conditions. We have since become even more oversold, and the rubberband at these technical levels has a history of snapping back hard and viciously.

Be careful out there!

QT- so where is the smart money now...is it on the sidelines--or is it getting ready to pounce, and where...one key to making the right move (IMHO), is to always think positive-> this sometimes translates into being acutely aware you may be wrong, but always expecting you will be right...(and not, of course, into the being right even when you're wrong crap that floats into so many financial commentaries)--

be careful out there indeed, but don't let caution lead to inaction-> i would prefer to say "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, and hey, I think I've got it, man...let's see what happens the next few times..." LOL...good luck tomorrow...

2nd

I hear you! But sometimes I have to be fooled more than 3 times to get it. :-)

I thought his comment at the end was interesting.

"We have since become even more oversold, and the rubberband at these technical levels has a history of snapping back hard and viciously."

Maybe this week [after Monday] oil will pull back causing the market to begin the last rally before we start that final plunge downward to 10,000 [or lower]. Wait and see I guess.

Well I'm off to bed, see you on the trading floor tomorrow.

2nd
I am keeping all my position, I expect market to bounce up next week, it may go down to 10000 but before that it might go up few hundred points.
Also I any change my mind any time
Invested 30% of my capital and do have some oex July 580 call
If it looks bad on Monday will sell everything and preserve my YTD gain

Lots of very interesting post this week

ALOHA !!

nemo ... That guy sounds like me! Actually I am sure he and my Father would have gotten along very well.

Bill Phillips is DEAD ON! I have three differences with him in that ...

#1 - I would throw the Republican party out of power as well and you all know why.

#2 - I say that Russia and OPEC is pumping those cheap ass US Pesos back into the crude oil futures markets to keep the oil price high.

#3 - I believe Putin along with Bin Laden wants the USSA broke and impoverished to get even for what Republican President Reagan did to Russia and the Iron Curtain back in the 1980s. Its PAY BACK!!

With the USSA broke the US Military will have no other choice but to retreat from its "self appointed" role as WORLD POLICE! This is the part that both of the two party aristocracy have supported for 100 years now! This failed policy has cost us dearly and will ultimately be our defeat. Wars are highly inflationary and highly unproductive. The conflict of interest between the Pentagon and the US congress is no different than that of the Banks and the US Congress. It is staggering and it is costly beyond belief considering what we have gained as a Nation by policing the World.

I still have yet to see anyone, including Bill here, make any assessment on how the WAR ON TERROR(WW3)will effect the US Peso and the US stock markets. In the past Wars have been a horrible plague on our money and our markets. I do not see that WW3 will be any different. I have posted analysis here before on fuel consumption of the US Military, the largest single consumer of fuel in the World! Ever seen the list of different fuels the US Military purchases? Go to the DEFENSE ENERGY SUPPORT CENTER(DESC) website.

ON THE WARRING STATES PERIOD
CASEY ... I mentioned the "WARRING STATES PERIOD" on purpose and I am glad to see you picked up on it. When you study MONEY and its past and present you cannot ignore China and Master Chuang. We ARE in the WARRING STATES PERIOD!!!! Good man ... WOW ... someone who has a clue ... good analysis of that period because I really do believe that those Americans who have been silent for so long will come out and take to the streets. We are being forced out of our "comfortably numb" state of being. Nothing in my mind could be more wonderful than an awakened American populace.

ON THE ART OF WAR
From this period came Sun Tzu the Art Of War ...
Nothing epitomizes the US Foreign and Energy Policies better than Chapter #2. To me the US Military and more so the US Strategy is like a bull in a China shop. Size matters and is a distinct disadvantage when used irresponsibly and without consideration of future consequences. To me this sums up the US Peso and Wall Street which are linked at the hip! Nobody here is expecting a monetary crisis and therefore nobody here is prepared in America and that is our Achilles heel yet all our enemies know this ... Our money is under attack in a most subtle way where our own weight is being used against us. This brings us to chapter three ... DEAD ON!

I won't go on, but we here at this blog and America need to fully understand the consequences of waging unlimited WAR. This is how EMPIRES crumble and it is always debasement of Empire's money that causes the final defeat of their Armies! The USSA is following the formula for the defeat of Empire to a tee! We are being bled to death financially ... BinLaden is way ahead of the US Pentagon on that score! We are seeing the TOO BIG TO FAIL bank strategy collapse. Too bad our elected leaders used the same strategy for the US Military and US Foreign Policy.

The USSA is totally off balance monetarily and we're hugely vulnerable like no other time in our history. To be complacent now is to be unprepared. Government interventions in the markets, as a strategy, will be proven a failed policy, just as they have in the past. Intervention only buys time, it never cures anything ...

The thirteen chapters:

1. Laying Plans OCS explores the five key elements that define competitive position (mission, climate, ground, leadership, and methods) and how to evaluate your competitive strengths against your competition.

2. Waging War explains how to understand the economic nature of competition and how success requires making the winning play, which in turn, requires limiting the cost of competition and conflict.

3. Attack by Stratagem defines the source of strength as unity, not size, and the five ingredients that you need to succeed in any competitive situation.

4. Tactical Dispositions explains the importance of defending existing positions until you can advance them and how you must recognize opportunities, not try to create them.

5. Energy explains the use of creativity and timing in building your competitive momentum.

6. Weak Points & Strong explains how your opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of your competitors in a given area.

7. Maneuvering explains the dangers of direct conflict and how to win those confrontations when they are forced upon you.

8. Variation in Tactics focuses on the need for flexibility in your responses. It explains how to respond to shifting circumstances successfully.

9. The Army on the March describes the different situations in which you find yourselves as you move into new competitive arenas and how to respond to them. Much of it focuses on evaluating the intentions of others.

10. Terrain looks at the three general areas of resistance (distance, dangers, and barriers) and the six types of ground positions that arise from them. Each of these six field positions offer certain advantages and disadvantages.

11. The Nine Situations describe nine common situations (or stages) in a competitive campaign, from scattering to deadly, and the specific focus you need to successfully navigate each of them.

12. The Attack by Fire explains the use of weapons generally and the use of the environment as a weapon specifically. It examines the five targets for attack, the five types of environmental attack, and the appropriate responses to such attack.

13. The Use of Spies focuses on the importance of developing good information sources, specifically the five types of sources and how to manage them.

Putin just reestablished the Czarist system. He was a KGB guy. I remember people thought he was some kind of good guy. Well, yeah, good at reestablishing oligarchic totalitarianism.

Anyway, and this might make me the most pessimistic out of the bunch.

1. The U.S. Peso is collapsing
2. The world financial system is arguably collapsing
3. The energy supply (including food) may not be collapsing, but because of the nationalistic control over the resource-is likely being used as a weapon and artificially constricted. Seeing as the US as an economic system is primarily built (over the last 70 years or so) based primarily on cheap energy the societal tectonic (what hyperbole!) shifts as we return to the mean of expensive energy will lead to societal ruptures like we've never seen.

4. There may be a rising up Kaimu: but it will likely be anarchistic in Nature. People that can't feed their kids or keep them warm in winter lashing out. Services we take for granted become unavailable. The inner cities will explode. The run-down cities will roll out to the gentrified suburbs. Survival will become watchword. Likely, this scene will be repeated around the world. Likely many will die.

5. Funny...here's how it's Taoist...If everything is one, and everything is energy (money is just considered a form of energy) then how poetic, or cosmically synergistic, that oil, food, and money are all in crisis at the same time, which then comes back to the predictions of the mystics about this time period.

I first became aware of these "predictions" back in the early 90's, to which I said, "cool, now give me a beer." (Or was it vodka.) The crisis was to begin in 2007, with a crescendo in 2010 and the denouement in 2012. So I forgot about it until I started noticing oil prices creeping up a few years ago, then I remember Buffet saying something about "financial weapons of mass destruction" followed by my amazement at the homeloans about which we are all aware, and now food. Oh, and let's not forget that anti-biotics are almost useless. "Besides that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play."

Oh, that guy flew A-4s over Viet Nam and then became a career spook in the Navy.

Posted by: kaimu at June 29, 2008 11:13 PM [link]

One of Kaimu's best posts.

wow talk about stirring up discussion

Nemo: on 2012. I consider 2012 to be a date nothing more... We are in a period of change, and all the past patterns help us get ready for possibilities.

However, in a time of chaos: anything is possible. Put predictions to the side and instead work towards what you would wish to happen
The predictions are used to help caution our own action, but we still must be bold enough to put faith into our own actions: otherwise you just give your time and energy helping make other peoples predictions possible.

This is especially true in a rigged financial market like this. Take advantage of the opportunities that arise while not letting your mind get clouded by attachment or false hopes.

Kaimu: :)

Yes we are in the warring states time again. However, that doesn't mean it will repeat in the same manner.

While we can fault the current USSA policy... the people running the show are playing a game much deeper than many of us can guess or untangle,
The reason Bush is president: are that his opponents have always underestimated both him and the machine behind him. Be careful not to make the same mistake.

The art of war also teaches the value of deception, and this current lot know that better than most. This situation runs deeper than many would guess and the current power base play games within games.

So its best not to get trapped in such games, and let go... Cheat,not by playing their game, but by dropping out of the whole thing all together. By chasing pigs so to speak as you said earlier today.

I am of the belief that if a serious political test against the current status quo were to threaten to happen, that various economic credit bubbles would be purposely popped at key times. In the ensuing chaos: people would be too fearful to act in a meaningful response, and the powers that be could clamp down harder to get control.
So I am of the hope that the current issues don't degrade too fast because of this, since this would hurt too many good people.

Saying all this please note: I am very optimistic that this time of change will sort out positively, that many people are shifting in a responsible and practical manner.
NO political party can foresee and plan for all events... The hubris of the controlling elite is also always their downfall...

Crisis just means: that it's a time where "forced" change has occurred. We can live it as a crisis now... and have our own actions forced by events...

OR

we can turn all that around... Accept change is happening: and choose our own change. Live as you want and not as one is shown. It then becomes an opportunity to become more. :)

These are the best times of all to be alive... since the events now actually empower us to live to our own change.

It just requires patience right now as it unfolds, and wu-wei. when I get to Hawaii in late August, I will look you up and we can chat in person.

"It just requires patience right now as it unfolds, and wu-wei."

I don't know what wu-wie is....but I have no choice other than patience.

I am but a mere mortal man.

Casey: I just find the convergences remarkably coincidental.

JVS3: "Wu Wei" is "non-interference" with the nature of things

Excellent weekend discourse!

nemo, you posted last night:

"I first became aware of these "predictions" back in the early 90's, to which I said, "cool, now give me a beer." (Or was it vodka.) The crisis was to begin in 2007, with a crescendo in 2010 and the denouement in 2012."
I immediately thought of something I read in a Nat'l Geographic mag and at adishakti dot org about the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar on 12-21-2012.
Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But maybe these Mayans were on to something... ;^)

peace from SoFla

Stu

I vote Casey's of 1:19 AM the best over-weekend post.

"Put predictions to the side and instead work towards what you would wish to happen" reminds me of oldie but goodie - "It's better to light up a candle than to curse the darkness".

nemo

If you would like to hear another line of thinking to your post last night let me know. I can either email it to you or post it later tonight when all trading is done.