Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes for Armageddon. :^)

Upgrade:

STO - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

Downgrade:

NOK - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

New Coverage:

QCOM - Outperform @ Credit Suisse
RIMM - Underperform @ Credit Suisse

--------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

The share price of GM is at the levels of the end of '87 (excl. dividens): http://tinyurl.com/3p8wwo

Click on the chart for a larger image.

Cara 100 Update:

BC - Target Price Lowered from $18 to $15 @ RBC

ESLR- picking up a little pre-market at 9.95...(vinod/n2s- any take on the convertible note offering)...

You've got stugots, my friend.
Premarket cowboy!

By the way GSS reports higher energy costs resulting in a premarket collapse of yesterdays rally:

"For Golden Star this new power rate would translate into an increase of $60 to $85 per ounce based on forecasted production."

ESLR- a week ago, S&P raises it to a strong buy, and they bid it up to 12.50...today, they follow through on plans to get financing, and they sell if off to 9.90 from last night's close of 10.83...efficient market pricing at work...LOL

S&P RAISES OPINION ON SHARES OF EVERGREEN SOLAR TO STRONG BUY FROM BUY (ESLR) 11.24):

Shares are up 10% this morning after ESLR sets two long-term sales contracts, totaling $600 million, with U.S.-based groSolar and Germany-based Wagner & Co Solartechnik. This follows $1 billion of May contracts. Production to be at Massachusetts plant slated to start up in July. Cash needs for current expansion likely to bring one last dilutive deal, but we project strong ELSR cash flow starting in 2010. We still see $0.10 a share loss in 2008 but raise 2009 EPS forecast by $0.10 to $0.65. We raise target price by 2 to 18, which is 28 times our 2009 estimate, a premium to reflect strong prospects. -M. Jaffe

By the way, for anyone who didn't see this yesterday, I related UBS takeover rumors that I heard reported on my local tv station and nowhere else. And the darn thing is trading up pre-market.

sorry- the second paragraph of above post should be in quotes...full link: http://tinyurl.com/4mzxb5

GFI- gaps to 12.52 (from 11.92) pre-market...

2nd
will pickup some ESLR
also I like CRAIG's yesterday post
I am also looking at POT/MOS/PQ/SID
did not buy any yet. I gave up on oil going down
and lost interest in airline or DUG

2nd_Ave, my take on the ESLR offering is that it is solid. Take a look at ENER, which had a similar offering just a few days before. Not nearly as much confusion surrounding that deal.

I'll probably be adding to my position after the open.

It's good to see my GFI recovering. I severely mistimed my buy a few weeks ago, however.

I've had better success with ESLR. ;)

The problem with trading pre-market is, one party is usually getting a screaming good deal, and it's pretty impossible for outsiders like us to tell who is who.

Cara 100 Update:

PBR - Upgraded to Overweight @ JP Morgan

MNTG.....stock I wish I could short.

No options for the stock.

All the news pieces about the worst June since the great depresssion... I know that neither the Vix nor the put/call ratio have spiked, so this can't be a true bottom yet. But is it possible that the lack of a true spike in these sentiment indicators merely reflects investor attunement to bad news? And a greater sensitivity to good news?

Still long UYG.

Buying ESLR today. Opportunities like this don't come along very often.

Opportunities like this?
Be careful fellas there's sharks in them thar hills.
Don't lose your green with Evergreen...it's going down if ya know what I mean.

Buy 500 Shares of ESLR
Details Filled at $9.90

shark, be careful. There are dolphins in the water.

Woohoo...Go Evergreen!

refiners- every time they get up, they get knocked down again...they should just stay down, man...

Worry abounds. Buy stocks. Buying silver puts.

I love dolphins...Theyre a healthy alternative to tuna.

Allow me to challenge the above logic...

"Worry abounds. Buy stocks." Where do you guys get this stuff?

[Bill Cara note: The fish, formerly called dolphin, now called mahi-mahi, is an alternative to tuna. The dolphin like Flipper is a mammal.]

shark- the pendulum always swings back...wasn't SKF struggling in the low nineties less than 2 months ago, now it's stretching for 150...

"Worry abounds. Buy stocks." Where do you guys get this stuff? --shark

It's in the water. . . . guess they're not in salt water like a shark ;)

and in another two months, oil will be much lower...JMO...

Much lower? I would take the other side of that bet.

Buy 100 Shares of SNDK
Details Filled at $19.45

Bill's daily report stated: "But, let me just say that I believe a week from now that oil and gold prices will be lower that the current price."

Some of the big boys took profits on BZ real . . . Everbank's Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler opines "as a chance to buy reals cheaper than yesterday!" Still holding BZF where I parked a little cash about a month ago (+4.52%). . . think BZ CB speaks louder and acts more decislively than Fed. Retaining for now as hedge.

Dolphins doing what they do to sharks right now. Hope you covered, sharkie.

SWC - the dog is back hunting today - congrats to those who didn't get shaken. This is the most politically and geographically safe PGM miner in the world. Fundamentals in the long term will beat manipulation in the short term.

Building a heavily weighted metals portfolio for the last 6 months is finally paying off for me.

On a side note - coffee price at my local stand went up about 25% this week (after staying the same for at least 2 years I think). This rampant inflation is getting real nasty.

Hey guys,
I was having trouble signing in because of the migration.

Rob.

I think there's still too much optimism of a turn-around for stocks to stop falling yet. Commodities up and stocks down will keep working awhile longer IMO.

The VIX and put/call ratio are not even close to the fear spike in March.

Rob.

Kaimu: thanks for your comments on SPROTT/EMBRY yestereday. I use Embry as an important data point in my evaluation of markets. Wow, talk about due diligence, I had no idea how deep the rabbit hole goes. For now I'm taking this with some grain of salt, but I consider it important input.

All the negative news headlines could foretell a turnaround soon but it seems to me that too many people expect a bounce here for one to happen right away. Remember how everyone felt in March when Bear was going down. Do you feel that way now?

Rob.

Washington Mutual

Does anyone know the story on getting one's contents out of a safety deposit box if a bank goes belly up? Not to mention one's checking account. I'd like an answer other than the bank's ....

DIG - Sold @ 118.5, now looking at DUG again...

DIG Sold @118.0 Typo, sorry

DUG - Bid @ 27.10 146 shares

Regarding a bounce - I think the financials need to lead the way higher. Today they had a meager bounce and have been sold since. When (if?) they get some legs we will go higher, but I don't see the catalyst besides short covering. Remember the MBIA and Ambac issues have been largely ignored recently.

This is an area of support on the S&P, so behavior here should be telling. If no significant bounce...

The financials I track have a ways to go before support. Merrill has long terms support at 30, Capital One has support at January low of 37, Washington Mutual has no support - every shareholder is a loser.

Purple - Dynamite, guns, lawyers, FDIC might help.

Speaking of alternative energy and cars, Zenn (ZNN.V) is a Canadian company I mentioned a couple of weeks ago. Stock has been up 20% since then. They make electric cars that are powered by a new type of battery, one that can be recharged in minutes and allow 400Km of travel in one charge, batteries are significantly lighter too (10% of the traditional weight).

In the next several weeks, a privately-held and secretive company named EEStor Inc. will release the results of independent third-party testing of its electrical energy storage unit. These units can potentially be used everywhere, from hybrid cars to laptop computers. EEStor has Zenn and U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. equity and business partners. Lockheed bought exclusive rights to use EEStor's power system for military purposes, while Zenn bought exclusive worldwide rights to the system for vehicles weighing up to 1,400 kg. They say they believe it is the "holy grail" of electric storage systems. Company is looking at expansion now that it is getting more government approvals. As usual, do your DD.

Time to take action: Car Pooling. H
ere is Marty Chenard's idea to make a difference.

Investor and Consumer ALERT …

It is NOW time for us to do something. The great thing about Americans is that we get up and fight when necessary. We don’t have the luxury of sitting and complaining anymore, it’s time to “do something about the rising gas and oil prices, and it is time to do it right now.”

As Americans, we can show the oil companies and politicians that WE can stem the rising oil problem, and we can have a surplus of gasoline in 30 days. Please take a moment to read this message, and how we /you can cause an immediate positive affect.

Oil prices are absolutely out of control and it will take 3 to 4 months for Middle East oil production to get high enough to help us out. In the meantime, we are likely to face oil costs that will rise from $140/barrel to $150/barrel and then to $200/barrel. It will kill our economy, kill jobs, and cause inflation that will substantially hurt all of us. Yesterday’s panic stock market selling showed the level of fear that investors are reaching by the “do nothing about the oil paralysis mentality” that is going on. Shares of General Motors Corp. plunged to their lowest price in more than 33 years.

Out of control gas and oil prices can be stopped within 30 days. In a moment, I will tell you how.

Last night, I emailed Vice President Cheney. I am waiting for a response, but I am sure that he and the White House are underestimating what we, as citizens, are willing to do.

The essence of my message to Vice President Cheney was the following:

“We can drop the amount of gasoline consumption in a flash and dramatically reduce our usage during the next four months by doing just one thing. We did it years ago, and I don't know why we are waiting so long to do it now. Now is the time, before we pay dearly in the coming days or weeks by waiting “too long”.

What's the answer? Car pooling. If we can get 3 people per car going to work in our big cities, it will take two cars off the road for every three cars … and we will have a gasoline surplus in less than 1 month." (For those who were not around to car pool almost 40 years ago, this is just about driving to and from work, you can still go to the grocery store, visit friends, and go places on your own.)

Don’t think it will work?

Consider the numbers:
1. According to the government’s population polls in 2006, there were 74,559,554 citizens living in the 200 largest U.S. cities. That does not count the surrounding cities everyone drives in from.
2. Assume that we car pool with 3 people per car: 1 driver and 2 passengers. Also assume that the average distance driven is 20 miles each way … assume that it takes 1 gallon of gas to get to work and 1 gallon of gas to get back home. That would save 29,541,423 gallons per day.
3. That would be a reduction in usage of 590,828,468 gallons per month, and 7,089,941,612 gallons per year. That’s right … over half a billion gallons per month, and 7 billion gallons per year.

The reality is that we would probably only have to do it for the next 3 to 4 months until oil production levels get cranked up.

What would happen?

We would probably have a surplus of gasoline in less than a month. Gas prices would plummet, you could take that vacation you cancelled because gas prices were too high, stock prices would stop plummeting, and the increasing rate of inflation would be curtailed by a large amount .. something Bernanke needs help on.

Who can make this happen now …

It is now up to “us,” you and I … each of us to individually make a reasonably small sacrifice during the next four months to stop this insidious problem that is spiraling out of control with no one willing to do anything about it, except talk about it and wave their fingers at each other.

We are Americans.
We are “doers”.
We don’t have to wait for our politicians to do too little, too late.
We need to do something now, and WE CAN … but only if YOU are willing.

My suggestion?

Let’s take the initiative as concerned Americans and push for mandated car pooling now. Let’s car pool for only 4 months and then reassess the situation. If we don’t, we will have a recession bad enough for you to never forget.

How do we get it mandated?

We call or email our Senators, Congressmen, and State Representatives. We tell them that we want to save 2.3 billion gallons of gas every four months by mandating car pooling in at least our largest 200 cities.

We call or email our local newspapers and TV stations and tell them the same. We each send this message out to 10 people, and ask them to do the same ... if we don't, nothing will happen. I will personally start by emailing over 10,000 people that know me right away. If each person sends this message to just 10 people the same day after receiving it, then in 4 days time, TEN MILLION people will have received this message and Washington will do something about it. In less than 10 days, we could have all this passed as an emergency response act.

Our politicians won’t do a thing without us telling them that we WANT them to do it. The reason is that this is a big political year and everyone is scared about doing the wrong thing that would upset their voters. I will be upset if they don’t do anything and you should be too.

Let’s tell them we are willing to meet this necessary challenge now, that we are willing to make the sacrifice to avert a problem that will mean much bigger sacrifices later.

Are you willing to take just 15 minutes out of your day to contact those who can make this happen?

I will even make it easy for you by providing you with all the email addresses of our Senators, Congressmen, and State Representatives. All you have to do is click on the email address and send them a message.

Make a decision now ... a decision that will affect the rest of this year, your finances, and the economy. Make a decision for your family, your job, your company, your friends, and your neighbors.

Please … make a decision now and let’s show our politicians that we do not have to wait for them while we continue to suffer economically and personally.

By acting in unison with our friends, workers, and fellow citizens, we have the power to change things … with an incredible magnitude of power that only few can imagine.

Sincerely,
Marty Chenard, President

1. To contact your State Senator or State Representative, click the link below and then click on your State ... every Senator and State Representative will appear with their email address and phone numbers. Click on the email addresses and you can send your message in a flash. This is the link: http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/

2. The top 100 newspapers reach millions of people. Here is a reference link to the 100 top newspapers in the country: http://www.refdesk.com/top100pap.html

banks- no sympathy here

it's been a government of the bankers, by the bankers, for the bankers...

unfortunately, it's not the top bankers who are suffering...

BillySundance - SWC controlled by Russians ?

"Norilsk Nikel, part of influential tycoon Vladimir Potanin's empire, has sealed a deal to acquire a 51 percent stake in Stillwater Mining Co., The Wall Street Journal reported on 22 November."

I believe this deal went through. Perhaps not so politically safe as before ...

And true to form, the dog of dogs, UXG, is the winner. I bought this stupid thing yesterday for 2 bucks and sold it for lunch money. It only went up 36 percent in 2 hours trading, so obviously, I know what the $#%^ I'm doing.

I apologize. It went up like 20 percent in 2 hours.

ALOHA !!

Rob ... All you're seeing is a move from paper assets to hard assets. People and governments, especially SWF types, are realizing that as values of global currencies shrink, especially for the World reserve fiat they will use commodities and gold and silver(monetary metals)as "money", in other words a long term store of value. These people are not stupid and they are taking their paper IOUs they get from selling "real" goods and services(like oil revenues) to Europe and America and "backing" them with hard assets, anything that can't get printed with a mouse click! MOUSE DOLLARS!!! You could say they are turning the global commodity futures markets into a PERTH MINT!!! Doesn't anyone see that when OPEC seeks ways to maintain value of their revenues by using the futures markets they are creating the classic spiral of inflation. This inflationary spiral exists because there is no "real money" left on the Planet! The Planet is devoid of "monetary value"! ... Not even the Euro qualifies ... which is only as stable as the German people. That will be seen soon. Today the Russian central bank announced they are moving into Swiss francs. The largest SINGLE oil exporter in the World is moving into Swiss Francs and they are building their gold reserves. I am sure the Chinese are as well ... Today the CHF spiked up!

BA Bid @66.7 - 45 shares

Kaimu,

Wow dude you get up early.

Jock - yes SWC is majority controlled by Russian miner Norilsk Nickel. I am not trying to pretend there are no risks involved w/ that. But the Stillwater mines are in the U.S. (Montana) and is in close proximity to Western Powder River Basin coal, which not seeing the same out of control pricing as Eastern Appalachian US coal that is being exported all over the world.

However, the majority of PGMs production in the is produced in South Africa, in which utility ESKOM can barely keep their power system up and running! They are delivering power at below their own costs (which can't last long!).

I do not mean to express that there are not some serious concerns with the Russian ownership of SWC. But being in the US, near somewhat stable power sources (and thus somewhat stable operating costs), being completely unhedged as of end of Q2, I think SWC has some distinct advantages.

The only other place in the world where there is even a somewhat stable climate for platinum production seems to be Australia - but the recent gas line explosion has revealed some serious geographical reliability concerns there as well.

Sorry if my previous post came off as too excited about SWC - yes, there are real ans serious risks involved. But IMO, the risks are smaller than other parts of the world. I wouldn't be surprised to see a company like Rio Tinto or BHP come poking around Montana in the next few years...

Mouse dollars - I like that one a lot. No longer wil a USD buy a buckskin, but maybe a mouseskin?

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... yes, car pooling would help but I find this quote from your article disturbing. This one quote is why Americans are in the mess we are in now ...

"The reality is that we would probably only have to do it for the next 3 to 4 months until oil production levels get cranked up."

There is no LONG TERM anything left in America! You can't even be a long term investor or saver. Not even "cash" is safe!

I believe Americans would be better off attacking the root cause of our financial ills and not the symptoms. High gas prices are a symptom ...

Our quality of "money" is the root cause. We re-elect the root cause every four years and we certainly will not change that bad behavior in 2008!

ALOHA !!

shark ... I'm a FARMER !!! Not a banker!!!

ALOHA !!

The word "root" has a dual meaning in Australia ...

Thinking out loud: Perhaps week before last would have been a good time to buy PM miners? Maybe next week will present better opportunities than this week?

Kaimu,
You're right on the "money"

Confidence was all Fiat had to support itself and where is confidence now?

A funny headline I just read:

"FED AIDED WALL STREET TO AVERT CONTAGION"

This is sure looking like Contagion to me unless the FED defines contagion as something different than every one of the banks and brokerages with access to FED money going down the tubes.

Rob.

Next time Bernanke speaks might be good PM entrypoint?

Telestar3d

Appreciate the links.

JMO, but VP Cheney is the last person I would send an email too! He could care less IMO.

He headed up the energy policy for this administration which brings us to today. Maybe Bill's musings about the price of oil and political discussion about drilling off the coasts in the Artic are on target!

Cheney has also refused to release any notes or reports in response to numerous FOIA requests and lawsuits. If memory serves me right, think he claimed some sort of WH executive privelege. Think oil looks just fine to Cheney and HAL.

Another aspect of this whole market I have to keep complaining about is:

"Why does anyone and the market still react to what analysts say?"(Besides Meredith Whitney, the only one with any credibility)

Add ratings agencies and the BLS and FED to that list as well.

They've all been clearly steering us wrong since last spring when "subprime was all contained" and "would never spread to the economy" and how many times have they called the bottom in financials? 7,8 10??

Who are the people trading on these "calls" by ratings agencies, analysts, and the FED? Are they that stupid or just in mass denial until what everyone knows is finally in writing.

I can't wait to see the day(and I think it's coming soon) when analyst calls and rating agencies actions and FED statements don't even move the market at all. That's when you know that 100% of confidence and trust is gone.

That's where I am right now. I guess we'll just have to wait for everyone else to catch up.

Rob.

2nd
will buy TBT at 69.20 if it get filled

Letting QID and UXG run ...

Wrote 5 Dec 10 puts on ESLR @ $2.20 to scale in

Kaimu - I echo your thoughts on the lack of a long-term vision.

It becomes more evident everyday that our elected officials are infected with the same disease that long ago infected corporate America - an obsession with short term goals.

This is an example of what we need to uncover more regularly:
"Celebrate Express selling for $31M Thur 5:55pm"

BDAY is up 63% Today

"In the next several weeks, a privately-held and secretive company named EEStor Inc. will release the results of independent third-party testing of its electrical energy storage unit."

Si02. I've heard about this company before and in DD saw that a Richard Weir was there co-founder, if this is the same Dick Weir that was in the disk drive business up in Si Valley in the 80's & 90's I'd dig as deep as necessary into EEstor tech claims. Had the same level of claims about storage devices that never quite got into production. He's a brilliant guy and got things to "work" in the lab, but could never translate into production.

Si02

Re: EEStor, Inc.

Standard operating procedure (SOP)----Recommend you run his name and fraud under google.

Lot of responses on a number of individuals by the name of Richard Weir. Didn’t spend much time reviewing the pages of hits, but did see this about delay. Please doydd.

http://tinyurl.com/22blqg

Caveat Emptor!

Kaimu and Seamus I could not agree with both of you more.

America should have been doing all these alternative energy solutions concepts starting in the 70’s after the first oil shock. We have had 38 years to solve and improve this condition. What did we do instead? The political machine of the USA made a bargain with Suadi Arabia to provide us with cheap oil in exchange for defense of their lands. Today we are learning of the flaws inherent in such a solution and a wise mind should have foreseen. It all boils down to short term fixes with no long term master plan in place.

Yes Seamus, Cheney is the fox in the hen house.

I have always thought all those people who were buying SUV’s were really stupid and had no sense of history with respect to the 70’s oil embargo. Personally, I hope they choke with they fill up the tank and see the price.

U.S.News & World Report
6 Myths About Oil Speculators
Friday June 27, 10:44 am ET
By Rick Newman

http://tinyurl.com/3o7mco

At least someone in the financial media seems to get it!

Si02,

After a quick search it is the same person and the partner Carl Nelson was also involved AND the Barium Titanate was an outgrowth of a magnetic storage medium they were touting to startup a verticle recording medium in the late '80's. That deal fell thru when GMR technology quadurpled storage densities of standard longitudinal recording systems. It's interesting that they kept working with the material until they found a market for it!! A newly invented Verticle recording today uses a sputtered metallic medium instead of particulate Barium Titanate. The actual particle manufacturer might be a better play than the battery user.......I recall that Pfizer was the manufacturer of all Magnetic recording Oxides back in the day..don't know if they still do? Other companies were all Japanese(surprised?).

ESLR

Noting a lot of volume (2,058) on Dec 7.50 puts compared to other call and put prices.

BillySundance,
The funny thing about the "evil" oil speculators is that I believe it's GS and the other banks and brokerages using FED money to "speculate" in Oil for the exact reasons that Kaimu talks about.

So do we now expect Ben to tell them No!! No!!

There's still way too many people shorting Oil for them to give up that trade without a much bigger threat than Ben will ever give them.

Rob.

Tele3D wrote: "America should have been doing all these alternative energy solutions concepts starting in the 70’s after the first oil shock... What did we do instead?"

Bought japanese cars, built a pipeline to the north slope of AK, and pumped Texas dry.

What we did instead was demonize Jimmy Carter and paint all conservationists, isolationists, and environmentalists as some sort of effete limp wristers not manly enough to drive-em-bigtruck and support the military adventurism required to fuel (pun intended) the happpy motoring lifestyle.

Carter put solar panels on the White House. Regan had them removed almost immediately after taking office. Carter said put on a sweater, make a little sacrifice. Cheney said the American way of life is non-negotiable and that conservation is a personal virtue, not part of an energy policy.

ALOHA !!

ON SWC
Last I looked Sprott had SWC on his short list, but then again being Russian controlled perhaps he got a visit from the Russian Mafia last night!!!

yes, in the late seventies we had a truly decent guy in the white house...

Bill,

I'm living in the Netherlands en just received your book. First Amazon.com didn't deliver outside the US, but now they do.

Mark

Took profits on most of my financial shorts. Looks like the odds are for a rally over the next several days - S&P daily RSI(14) is 29 and we seem to be basing here.

Alaskan Pete - what you are describing is how the right used the culture war to advance corporate interests.

Rob - absolutely - and why shouldn't a savvy bank like GS continue the long oil trade, right? Its not evil, its just logical. Its the effect, not the cause of our funny money policy!

The world is awash in a short oil trade! Everyone who drives a car but doesn't own their own oil is SHORT! If you own a car but no oil and you choose to also short oil futures, well then you are just doubly short, right?

Its a trend that ain't worth fighting IMO. I've tried in the past and realized my mistakes. I just moved within a mile of my work - working on closing my oil short!

Oil will not top until the risk of being long outweighs the risk of being short - and that will take the kind of fiscal conservatism that none of our leaders seems willing to deliver!

Being very overweight in Gold and PM miners is sure paying off this week! Except the pink sheet plays are still flat. HL, PAAS, AUY hot again.

Interesting many Canadian oil trusts are flat or down with the rise in crude.

Hey Kaimu

Using "root" would be considered an obscenity, no?

Guys I have to disagree about Carter.

The whole "we need to put on a sweater and use less oil" nonsense (at the time, we would all agree, it was palpably nonsense)lost Carter the election in 1980. I am hearing echoes of it bow from Obama, the idea that our way of life is somehow unsustainable, and that for the good of the rest of the world we need to start riding bicycles and eating tofu. If Obama pursues that line of logic, he too will lose this fall. I'm not saying Carter was not a decent guy, just that he was not a decent president. And the economy under Carter was a disaster.

Wiki has quite a bit on Eestor. The technology is really a capacitor, not a chemical battery. Capacitors are pretty straightforward and haven't seen any huge advnances in several decades, so Eestors claims of energy densities that are 1000x an average capacitor raises eyebrows.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEstor

I hope they are on to something, as capacitors beat out chemical batteries in every respect except energy densities. But the cynic in me doubts the claims...

We now know when it's decent guy VS oil Aholes who wins....

*We* are completely responsible for everything that has transpired since, including badmouthing the Decent guy and voting in more bought and paid for oil Aholes.....and loading up on SUV's and other glutenous behaviors while Europe kept their small cars and we called the French names.
Who will have the last laugh? Those taking our futures in exchange for oil at $140.

When everyone wants to know who is to blame, we all have magic mirrors to see who it is....

Just curious...how old were you when Carter was President? If you were still riding a bicycle then you are just parroting other's BS.

300 Shares of TBT
Details Filled at $69.20

I hate to disclose my true age, but here's a clue. The day I was born was the day the Beatles played their last live concert before a paying audience. And I would never just parrot someone else's BS Craig. I've got plenty of my own.

I think GSS may be getting good in here.

BillySundance,
I have no problems with GS or anyone else taking long Oil positions. What I do have a problem with is the FED sponsoring this activity while they wring their hands over inflation.

As far as blame goes, I completely blame Congress for allowing the FED to do all this. I do believe we'll see $200 oil before we see $100 oil.

Rob.

2nd et al,

Sell my SKF this afternoon or wait until Monday?

I'm in at an average $102.

Thanks

A lot of what I know about Carter I learned as a history major at a big, liberal, eastern university, including reading the famous speech in which he mentioned the sweater and turning the heat down, so that's a primary document, not someone else's BS.

People are loading up on calls on XLF today.

And loading up on puts on the QQQ's and SPY as well.

DIA has more puts than calls sold but not by as much as the others.

Rob.

shark,

I don't think we can continue using a much larger portion of the world's resources than our population would dictate, so I'd be inclined to say that our way of life is unsustainable. As other countries develop to our quality of life level, there simply won't be enough resources to go around. We either need to start using less or be willing to maintain our position through constant military force.

HNCadet and proudPapa, thanks for the finds. If it is a capacitor, then it would be huge indeed. I am more interested in ZNN actually as they are expanding. I wish I could buy the car.

As for disrupting technology, the same arguments were made against TIM.to, and still are, and look at the share price. Some analyst were calling for TIM to drop to zero. Sprott is behind TIM.

Interesting how the same names keep coming back.

ALOHA !!

nemo ... Yes, but Aussie farmers must use that word quite often!

Jeff,

We presently use a VASTLY larger proportion of the worlds resources than our population would dictate. However, how are other countries going to develop to our quality of life level while we continue to monopolize resources? Why precisely do you think that we cannot continue to do so? Do you really see this trend turning around anytime soon?

I'm starting to see some panic out there. If the PPT doesn't step up soon we'll see another huge down day today.

Rob.

Wow here we go again.

Define- Dichotomy: "division into two usually contradictory opinions"
Thefreedictionary.com

Love the debate today.
Safe to say we all have a difference of opinion.

I would encourage everyone to ready the 14 page document below. Probably the most objective point of view of how and why we have 140 oil today.
The script is a testamont from Dr Yergin. He describes the problem as a "confluence of events".

So as we try to blame others for their mistakes and mishaps maybe we should step back and get out of the game and observe from the bleachers. It is always better to watch film from the stands than on the field in the action.

I believe the script is objective and the only solution is a bunch of solutions. We can't change overnight it will take decades.

http://tinyurl.com/47z75j

Post from cell. Please forgive

You want to see panic? Tell Kaimu that the government is going to confiscate PM's and simultaneously devalue the dollar.

BTW, there's an article on the Financial Post on Zenn Motor:

http://www.financialpost.com/reports/oil-watch/story.html?id=613448

I live within walking distance of EEStor. Might put in a resume. Haven't researched them for a long time.

I thought the following article was somewhat relevant to the discussion.

The easily obtained supplies were running out. To get more of the energy source that fuelled a nation, workers had to explore and dig to unprecedented depths. Costs rose steadily and some experts were certain there was no solution. Progress would halt. In the future lay crisis and collapse.

The year is 1712. The nation is England. The energy source running dangerously low is coal. I didn't mention this at the beginning lest the reader think these facts are somehow obscure or irrelevant to the struggle for energy we face today. They are neither.

It wasn't England's first energy crisis. That came in the 13th century, when population growth and deforestation led to a shortage of wood.

The rest at
http://tinyurl.com/6blwj3

Anyone still think Gold is going back to $800?

Si02

Re; 1:17 p.m. post on Zenn

That vehicle looks familiar. Think I saw someone I know driving it up in Western Michigan recently. Plan on visiting there next week and will check into it if I see him. Will let you know here or via skype.

Shark, resources are being rationed right now through price. Those counties that can afford to pay get their oil. The less fortunate counties probably take turns doing without.

It is very clear that the standard of living for many citizens has been declining in America and rising in many emerging markets. This trend is likely to continue unabated for some time.

Bow to fingerlakes' 10:32. Taking a loss on silver puts.

Averaging down TSO at $18.80.

Added SCC, late to the party.

DXY threatening lower Bollinger Band. Thanks Ben... the gold stocks are smoking.

$142.53 new all time oil high...

Added USU and PBRA.

Got DUG into a bad position. Any advice on getting out?

mebea, yes, sell it and take the loss.

ALOHA !!

These headlines were on Google Finance about fifteen minutes ago. The US financial media cannot even coordinate their BS since these three articles contradict each other ...

Which is it? Did US consumers bank those tax rebate checks(stimulus) or did they spend them? It all depends on which article you believe ... Two say we spent them and one says we saved them! I tend to believe they are spent since even $600 is considered nothing worth saving! Now it is left to determine what were the rebates spent on? A new Coach bag or your phone bill?

READ ON:

1:49PM ET

Americans rediscover the piggy bank, for now
guardian.co.uk - 49 minutes ago

By Emily Kaiser WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - US consumers banked a big portion of their tax rebate checks last month, giving them enough cushion to keep spending for a few more months and perhaps postponing a recession that once seemed inevitable.

US Economy: Spending Rose More Than Anticipated (Update1) Bloomberg

Stimulus payments lift spending in US International Herald Tribune

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, didn't!!! EGO 2 days ago

SKF parabolic. Out at 140 and crying. Did execute an expensive 130 call a while back.

SWC up 9% but investor NILSY in in the tank.

Mebea -

Sell. Made my mistakes with DUG a few months ago and put it on my do not trade list. There are many more stocks in defined trends to trade - move on.

The hardest thing to do is to sell at a loss (i've been there) but it is the most important.

shark - its always good to use less - lowers your input costs and thus increases your net.

Moab,telestar -

I was hoping for something with a little less sting in it. I hate just eating the red and then watching the damn thing rebound a few days later. Thanks much to you both.

Adding to CNSL 14.80, NLY 15.32.

Again with the divergence between oil/oil stocks. Still long DUG, GFI.

Craig beat me to the punch. No disrespect intended Sharkdude, but from reading your comments for a long time (I have lurked here for years), I'd have pegged you as early 30s.

Bull Hunter- i can remember the last time you asked that question...take some profits, my friend...there's no guarantee what happens on Monday ...

...maybe you can pick up a little UYG while you're at it...

Piling heavily into APWR. Down from $32 one week ago.

Re Carter - he appointed Paul Volker as Fed Chief, but Reagan got the benefits. Suppose we'd started taxing gas at European levels back then, we might still be paying higher prices at the pump, but a chunk of the money would be going into the US treasury, not the coffers of another counrty.
My guess is that the Republicans must be hoping they lose the election, otherwise they'd have to deal with the mess they created. Not going to be pretty over the next few years.
Vad, good positive article, thanks. But its a longer term perspective, we may need the tin foil in the interim.

from a high of 13126 to a low of 11286 today...that's an 1840 point drop in less than six weeks...

Thanks 2nd.

Think we get a 3:30 selloff?

Regards

I should add, for amusement sake if nothing else, that my current long position in GFI is the result of a trading plan screw-up.

I entered at 12.27 in early June before it spiked down. Of course, I had a stop in place, a stop-limit order with the limit about a dime below the stop...and it promptly gapped through my stop a few days after entering. Once I realized this, it looked to be oversold, so instead of closing the trade I sat. The rationale being "If I had just opened this trade now, what would I do"...easy answer set another stop and let the trade do its thing.

Now, this was really a mistake on my part for using a stop-limit instead of a stop-market, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Furthermore, I broke a fundamental rule...set a stop, and respect it when it's hit. Seems like you can only get away with breaking your rules once you've learned them sufficiently (usually by losing alot of $$$ to burn the lesson into your greedy little brain, lol).

mebea

Ti me it is not important that I make a profit everyday but that I big a big profit later. On my DUG I have been in the red then green then red. But I am holding out waiting for the big sell off in the energy sector.

Today Mr Cara made this comment:"Yes, these are challenging times, particularly for the Buy-and-Hold "investor". But, let me just say that I believe a week from now that oil and gold prices will be lower that the current price."

Thursaday Ron on his web site made this comment: "Investment hypothesis: we're in the final three days of the quarter. You think the hedgies are gonna give up this easily? They'll protect their longs (energy) and be talking up the markets. That's their DNA. Pray for the worst opening imaginable."

I agree with them. So I wait.

Ti:To
[%@#$ Typos again]

Along with Alaska Pete and a few others, all I know about Carter was because I voted for him and lived it. I don't have to rely on what a historian (all biased one way or another) wrote.
That would be parroting what others wrote, no matter what you think.

There is a world of difference.

BH- a 3:30 sell-off would at best add another percentage point to a 50% gain...take it...what if it's a 3:30 reversal instead leading into Monday's EOQ mark-up?

2nd,

Gracias Amigo.

Don't forget to stop by for your free lunch on your future Caraista Tour.

Regards

Norm, thanks for posting "Oil at the Break Point."

BH- you're selling higher now than the march 17th intraday high of 150.10...congrats...

Quick...everyone to the other side of the boat...

ESLR buyers: if the price of oil were to fall 20%, how do you think this will affect ESLR? Is it viewed as an alternative to oil and so will ESLR fall as oil falls? Or will it rise together with the broad market that will rejoice as POO falls?

DavidV

assuming no dividend cuts, C now offers a 7.4% yield...

Mebea, learning to take losses early is one of the best and hardest skills to learn as a trader. You can always buy back in if things change and if you sell and it turns around and goes in your favor if you would have held, well that just goes with the territory. Sort of reminds me of the song by Hornsbury, I think, titled “that’s the way it is.”

You really have to define if you are a trader or something else.

David- i don't see much correlation between ESLR prices and oil prices...right now, ESLR is a company that should be bought on its own merits..

C is toast. I see GM paying 8.8% yield. Am I gonna buy...

BH

Congrats on a good trade . . . agree w/2nd; take it move on, don't look back.

QT, great minds think alike. Now that I'm out of FXP at a good profit (because I waited patiently, selling my last position at 86 yesterday...), I decided to take a small position in DUG. The rationale is (1) I believe there is some point at which oil will drop significantly, and given the level of speculative $$ in oil, it probably will overshoot downward (whatever "overshoot" means here...), and (2) Bill's comment on oil dropping sometime in the near future. I've wanted to take a postion in DUG for a few weeks now, but decided to wait for a few more upward spikes. I'll just hold until we get a downward spike. frankly, it's only 1% of my portfolio, so my VAR if we suddently got a huge upward spike (Iran...nuclear...) is tiny. I agree with you that holding for a big sell off seems like a reasonable strategy.

BTW, are you still out of FXP?

I got killed on my TBT position. Darned thing was up about 3% and now I'm down 5%. Probably should have had a stop on that.

I agree with 2nd about the false correlation between solar and oil. Apples and oranges. Solar and the companies driving its growth will stand on their own merits over the long haul.

Thanks, Seamus.

Regards

I wouldn't touch C w/ a ten foot pole. This company bought that $800m Lone Star hedge fund last year and has already dismantled it. Talk about wealth destruction - The dividend is about as safe as driving a Cutlass Caprice to Bogota if you ask me........

Yikes! Sorry for the echo 2nd. ;)

Almost everything on my miners list is showing green today with the glaring exception of SIL. Anyone have any ideas about why it's been so weak? Is it just country risk (Bolivia)? TIA

"Vad, good positive article, thanks. But its a longer term perspective, we may need the tin foil in the interim."

Ugh, absolutely. I have no doubt that we are to go through a lot more pain, and it's going to get much worse before it gets any better. But I wanted to provide some counterweight to the "end of the world" point of view :)

IMO, it's not. Scientific and technological advances haven't reached their limits; they solved this kind of situations every single time in the past, and there is no reason they wouldn't this time around. System pushed far enough tends to push back - and the farther it's pushed the stronger counterpush is. Our whole system of energy balance is being pushed far beyond reasonability, and the balance is going to be restored, reshaping our whole world in a processs and opening the ways to both new levels of prosperity and to prosperity for new groups.

That's my long term view and I stick to it :)

Vad,

Thanks for putting the situation in perspective. I don't believe in peak oil, I don't believe we're anywhere near running out of it, I don't believe global demand is as strong as the oil mongers claim, and I do believe that oil is the most un-free and manipulated market in the world.

Oh, and to look even further... somewhere down the road, in xxx years we are going to get careless about new source of energy use again and run into new crisis... round and round it goes :)

allen

Out of FXP...didn't wait long enough. 24hrs later there was $$$ all over the table where I once sat. :-(

Remember DUG is tied into oil & service companies stocks. Once the big players move their $$$ out of there for a more lucrative sector DUG will soar. I'm banking a lot on Ron's comment in my previous post.

Shark: Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we have passed the peak of the bell curve of maximum theoretical extraction rate. We have only pumped 1 trillion barrels of the 3 to 4 there are. All the low hanging fruit is gone. I do believe we are there, and I do not believe we will ever see $100 again.

How can it be a "free" market when supply is monopolized by a few large interests? We should just stop talking about "free" markets, there probably aren't really any.

2nd_ave, number2son: thanks for your take on ESLR. I have superimposed the charts of USO and ESLR and if anything, I saw a slight negative correlation. In that case, ESLR should be a safe buy now (I don't want to take positions now that will lose big time if oil collapses). Opened a 50% position in ESLR now (will double it after a 10% drop).

Also, bought back the VLO shares I sold last week for $43.8. As I mentioned previously, I think the oil will turn around after the long weekend (with Bush signing an executive order on off-shore drilling), but we have also had a sizable market drop already, so the current VLO price is reasonably safe, I think.

DavidV

C- ah, but those are the kinds of strong opinions that drive great trades...

My friend is leaving Lehman brothers for a better offer with guaranteed years and theyre even buying his Lehman stock from him at inflated prices, so it would be stupid to stay.

One huge money manager at Lehman told my friend that "our business model is broken, it doesn't work anymore". Make of that what you will, but I take it to mean that money management is becoming de-centralized, as almost anyone with any moxy has already left hb and b for a hedge fund. Let's face it, these hb and b guys were perpetrating the greatest, most audacious and prolific scam ever to come down the pike. And most of them couldn't manage a McDonalds.

SWC up 12%. Perhaps the Russiam mafia found the naked short sellers. Possible solution to the severed feet washing ashore at Valdes Island in British Columbia, Canada. SWC was waiting for the other shoe to drop.

have to wonder how many cutlass caprices made it across the border in the eighties with fine colombian commodities...

"And most of them couldn't manage a McDonalds."

look forward to seeing that...

3, make that 4 short/ultrashort ETFs reversing and turning down now.

EEV, FXP, TWM & PSQ

May be early, exited SDS at 67.14 and took profits.

DavidV said:
I think the oil will turn around after the long weekend (with Bush signing an executive order on off-shore drilling)

So what, it takes a minimum of 5 to 10 years to develop an offshore field. Where are going to get deep water drilling rigs? PBR is currently sucking up all the demand for the tuppi fields.

What’s the time frame to build a drilling rig?

Do you really think demand is going to fall in any meaningful way from China and India in the next 20 to 30 years?

P.S. Buying falling knives are usually never safe trades.

One more thing, almost all cost inputs for finding and extracting oil are rising. Therefore going forward oil has a floor under it.

Houses right now may be a roaring bargain. Why? What is the replacement cost for these houses today? Any below $100 per square foot has to be attractive.

There's so much more to the house price equation than replacement cost. Such as, for example, the fact that NO ONE can borrow any money because the credit monster is in contraction mode, meaning that because no one is borrowing, there is no basis upon which to initiate further lending. It's 1929 type stuff in it's scope and meaning.

BA - 45 filled @$66.7, sell limit @$70.0

Telestar,

I would disagree because once the "world" knows that there will be an proactive measure to bring more oil to the market 5-10 years from now it will bring down prices.

The market knows there isn't anything really in the works besides, Kahastan, Brazil, Cuba and Russia as far potentially real development in the works.

Another problem is that Rigs take 18 months to build and develop... so that adds time but the "market" will respect new investment by the largest and wealthiest country in the world put forth towards oil exploration.

As Dr. Yergin states.... there has been a missing generation of oil investment. There is a shortage of scientists, geologist and researchers for oil development due to bad policies over the past two to three decades.

Oh... by the way IMO by the time the oil really gets up and running it won't matter as saturation will hit the market because of Technological advancements. As money and research are focused into the sector to much supply will hit and advancing breakthroughs will occur.

just a though...

I don't think Bush can sign an executive order to drill it may require congressional approval unless it is for "national security"

Cyderman - SIL falling on country risk

What more do you need than Bolivia country risk? The country seems to be coming apart, with richer low-land provinces voting for autonomy from the high-land-based central gov't.

Bolivia has always been unstable, and in the last year or two fought with forgeign oil/gas cos. including Petrobras.

Bush can sign anything he wants. Congress is a lapdog.

Best not to ask for advice and then argue with it.

Most advice has had a huge/large price tag attached to it, and it is out there to be heard...Your choice whether to listen or not.

Price paid also for this info.

high end homes in the bay area built with the kind of materials and care seen 30-40 years ago still take several years from start to finish, and can be expensive as hell...whereas the stuff i've seen go up in the outlying counties almost overnight-> those i wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole...

Norm: By the time there is any significant increase in oil pumping capacity, the US Dollar index will be down to 40, and the new floor will be at least $200/bbl, IMHO. There's no going back and there's no "undoing" the mistakes of a fiat madman.

Checking miners' list, interestingly only one has a put/call ratio over 1.0. HMY at 1.37. Must be country risk (South Africa). SIL is 0.51 BTW.

Lowest ratio: IVN 0.06; UXG 0.08; & KRY at 0.11

Norm, I hope your right, but in the mean time I'm going with supply and demand equation. It is very possible that the world economy slows down and demand softens that would just be an opportunity buy during weakness.

However, Richard Rainwater has sold all his oil stocks and he's no dummy. There are no easy answers.

With respect to mortgages, I told a friend that we will be going back to a world where you will need 20% down to purchase a house (a sane policy. He said, no 30%, he just tried to purchase a place and that's what the lender was demanding.

Enjoyed everyone's post today. Thank you.

Home prices will diverge from the cost to build new, and there will be no new homes built by other than the very wealthy, IMHO. The oversupply will take the selling price down and so will the end of credit as we once knew it. I don't see a bounce for a decade.

And areas like mine have not folded yet, but they will. Wile E. Coyote off the cliff, looking down but has not fallen yet. A depression has not been factored into home prices yet.

As Puplava says, the politicians will turn this recession into a depression.

Hey Seamus, where do you go to see the put / call ratio?

Thanks

When the Dow was peaking out around 13,000, HBB and the Fed were promoting "the worst is behind us" fantasy, HBB, after feasting at the Fed window and changing trash for cash,needed more capital and began selling non-cumlutative preferreds with maturity dates longer than we will be alive. Interest rates were 7-3/4 to 8.5%. Non-cumulative means they only owe principal at maturity. Interest is not guaranteed.

For example, USBancorp, with supposedly good prospects to weather the credit storm, their April issued 7 7/8% paper is trading at slightly over par ($25). Hunnington Bank issued 8.5% paper during the same time frame. That issue is now trading at a loss of 27%. Some Wamu paper is trading at 59cents on the dollar (-41%) with a current yield of over 13%. Wonder who bought all those issues? Most of the recently issued preferreds are trading lower than par.

IF.... you can pick the survivors, perhaps there are some good profits to be made on principal and great yields to boot. Of course, higher rates ahead could dampen a rebound in these credit instruments.

However, I read somewhere the other day that a problem in the derivitive arena could wipe out 100 banks overnight. That's when you wake up in the morning and hear that a bank holiday has been declared.

BH- time to start your lessons, man...i guarantee SKF has seen its high for the day, or i'll buy YOU lunch in lancaster county..;)

rugger09

When I set up my watchlists on Schwab, I can select a number of columns. Two of them are put/call ratios (open interest or volume). I usually keep the put/call open interest ratio on the far right side of my lists to look for differences.

Just our luck guys. We decide to become stock traders, and then we have the worst June since the great depression.

Aurator...I agree with your above comment.

Alaska pete...I seem younger than I am because my emotional growth has been stunted by consciously avoiding major responsibility at every turn and due to the fact that I'm actually Bob Marley.

rugger09

Forgot to mention, put/call ratio also shows up in my trading window.

ALOHA !!

shark ... Look if all you have to do is make up fake financials and pump all your losses offshore then that isn't managing anything ... that's just plain old LYING!!!

The HB&B managers were the kids you knew in junior high who had long hair and Beatle boots but couldn't play a Dm chord to save their life! These same guys are the ones who in college drove around town with surfboards on their jacked-up 4wheelers but couldn't swim 10 meters! In Australia they have a word for those types ... "POSERS"! In other words, "posing" as human beings ... HA!!!

The heavy weights take on the "real risk" and build the GoldCorps and Rio Tintos of the World and the psychopaths like the Mozillo's and Rothschilds shuffle paper and pretend they've earned something! Then there's the other guy who's name rhymes with ROT!

cyderman,

Great post and you are absolutely correct. One thing to remember is that policies that presidents or congress make or start... the benefits usually aren't reaped until another administration fills the shoes...

Under Reagan he appointed Regan as the Treasure Sec from Merrill Lynch.

At that time as you mention Volker raised rates to combat inflation and as a result 30 year bonds were paying 14%, 14%!! could you imagine. Sign me up for that.

In the first time in us history Regan made the 30 year bond callable in 10 years.

As a result, that debt was called and reissued at 4 and 5% and