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May 25, 2008
Week in Review #21 (2008-05-24)
Just as much as high energy costs are squeezing the North American economy, the fight for survival of some of the major banks in the world is also scaring long-term oriented traders who know the importance of the financial sector for the continued good health of the equity market.
This fight to save the banks has been joined by central bankers and finance ministers, using the People’s money, with nobody permitted to rock the boat. However, if this were your problem or mine, those same banks wouldn’t skip a heartbeat before calling in our loan and taking the boat with it.
In essence, that is why we don’t yet live in a fair society.
So, without further adieu, let’s look into a report by David Einhorn as to how deceitful are these banks. “Exposing Lehman’s Lies” is the type of investigation and analysis that independent traders need.
Lehman Brothers (LEH) had a bad week in the market, and I am sure that Einhorn’s article didn’t help. The stock plunged -17.3% this week, -23.0% over 4 weeks, -41.9% YTD, and -51.3% over the past year.
But I suppose if you are a LEH shareholder, consider yourself fortunate you are not stuck in Citigroup (-61.6% over 52-weeks). And you can point to UBS (-54.2%), Merrill Lynch (MER -53.8%) and Morgan Stanley (MS -51.2%) as being in about the same position.
How much worse can this get for Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B)? I happen to think there is a further -20% to come, mostly because the banks are still hiding the losses, refusing to take write-offs of permanently destroyed assets. What David Einhorn has done is merely invite at least a million eyes to the problem. From this point forward, regulators and auditors who look the other way may be found culpable and could be charged for participating in a fraud. They must take action. The problem is not just Lehman; it's all these major banks.
So on that happy note; let’s look into the week that was a bummer, down between -3.33% and -3.90% for the major US equity market indexes and even more for most of the international markets.
Global Economics Review
The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.
Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.
US Economic Calendar.US Producer Price Index data for April.Econoday reported, “The fiscal YTD deficit for 2008 remains quite large compare to that for last year, a $152.2 billion deficit versus $80.8 billion. Fiscal YTD receipts have slowed to a 3.0% gain while outlays were up 7.4%. Individual income tax receipts are up 6.0% while corporate income taxes are down 14.7%.”
This is not good news for the $USD.
US Existing Home Sales data for April.
I had commented, “A pick-up in sales is needed to start reducing the overhang in supply, which is depressing prices.” The negative report that followed from the US National Association of Realtors (NAR) stated that re-sales of homes in April fell -1.0% to a 4.89 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Y/Y sales are down -17.5%. Inventory of unsold homes climbed to a 23-year high. Incredibly, there were mainstream (so-called) reporters who wrote, deceitfully, that the results were not bad, and better than expected.
Unfortunately, without a significant drop in the mortgage lending rate, there is not likely to be a pick-up in sales. But, the interest rates cannot go lower without US capital markets surrendering to Stagflation. So, the equity and debt markets are not going higher any time soon.
So much for last week, it was another bad one although retail sales started to pick up.
Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar, which is shaping up to be a not-so-quiet post-Memorial Day week:
US Economic Calendar.US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data will be reported at 10am ET Tuesday. The rest of the week looks quite interesting.
US Durable Goods Orders data for April.US Personal Income and Spending data for April. Spending will be up because of higher prices.
The inflation and other macro-economic issues that Americans are struggling with are global in scope. High inflation rates will likely result in very few central bank rate cuts in the next couple years. If the global economy suffers further contraction, the monetary authorities can do very little at this point.
Weekly International Economic Report .
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
I called last week “a rally week in a Bear market: 22 Dow components up and 8 down.” This week was the continuation of the Bear–with 28 Dow stocks and all 10 sectors down.
The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite lost -3.33%, -3.47%, and -3.90% respectively, led by the Financials (XLF -6.13% W/W), Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -5.20%) and the Basic Materials (XLB -4.38%).
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Tech, including Semi-conductors, lost steam, but was a minor loser on the week.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
This week, there were 10 sectors down and 0 up. It wasn’t pretty as three of the past four sessions took massive losses, closing Friday afternoon looking rather fragile.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
I use XLK for the Tech sector for a total of ten (10) sectors, but also include Semiconductors (SMH) because it is my bellwether on the economy plus use SPY to see where each sector stands relative the broad market.
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Crude Oil ($WTIC +$6.15/bbl +4.88% W/W) gained strength, closing at 132.19. But, Energy (XLE -3.02% W/W) turned bearish following a solid two weeks as it seems that traders now see that there is a limit to the high oil prices before the economy crashes.
The Canadian oil and gas sector was strong again with Suncor (SU) up +5.5%, following two weeks of large gains. Imperial Oil (IMO) lifted +4.9% after a week that had a small loss.
PTR, RIG and SLB were all down -5.0% or more.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Basic Materials (XLB -4.38%) was a significant losing sector this week.
Tenaris (TS) enjoyed a small gain (+2.7%), but most were down with rather large losses. Nucor Steel (NUE -11.9%), Posco Steel (PKX -9.4%), Rio Tinto base metals (RTP -9.0%) and CVRD base metals (RIO -6.9%) suffered from profit-taking.
These stocks had been very strong, so traders will be looking closely at the upcoming trading patterns. Typically, a global economic slow-down is expected to produce a cyclical bear phase in these stocks.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Industrials (XLI -3.79% W/W) were almost as weak as the Basic Materials.
The winner on my Industrials monitor was ABB of Switzerland, up just +0.2%, following a week where it was up +5.0%. There were many losers led by Brazil’s airplane maker Embraer (ERJ -10.2%), United Technologies (UTX -5.3%), UPS (UPS -5.3%), and General Electric (GE -5.3%).
It’s not often that a GE loses over -5% in a week, so take note of its trading next week. GE is known as the General.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -5.20% W/W) plunged after prices at the fuel pump zoomed. The loss on Friday was -1.71%.
The leader-board had Toyota (TM -2.9%) at the top, but a loss is a loss. The losers were Brunswick (BC -12.3%) with a boat manufacturing business that has to just hate $130 crude oil (with $4/gallon fuel prices), JC Penny (JCP -11.3%), and Brazil’s GOL airlines (GOL -11.3%).
In this sector, it was a year ago or more that I said, “no tickee” by consumers would lead to big problems here. This sector has made nobody any real money for 2, 4, or 52 weeks—unless you were short.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Staples (XLP -1.44% W/W) was not so defensive.
Budweiser (BUD) was up +9.4% on the hopes that a foreign beer company will buy it out. Isn’t that just great America? Coca Cola (KO) lifted +2.7%.
Brazil’s InBev (ABV) just might buy BUD, so the stock sank -8.0%.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
