I josh of course. What Mr. Lockhart knows and what he’s prepared to say in order to keep his chip in the game are two polar opposites. I used to wish this were not so, but, you know, I have given up “wishing”.

Wishing is for those callers to 1-800-HELP and recipients of so-called tax rebates. Oh, throw in those who buy lottery tickets as a part of their estate planning, as well.

The next word out of the Atlanta Fed is that speculators are the problem and have to be rooted out of their holes.

Traders do not wish; they deal in facts. That is, they used to. Now the US government sees fit to tell the world that inflation in America rose a mere +0.2% this past month, and just +0.1% if you ex-out energy and food costs.

Just for fun, let’s try to determine the cost for a family of four to travel to the Indianapolis 500 race this coming holiday weekend. Maybe we could look at the added cost this year to fuel up those military jets that buzz the stadium just about the time everybody breaks out in a rousing “God Bless America” or the costs to power those racing machines or equip them with tires because they don’t go onto the track ex-rubber. Insurance, now that’s another story, all included in the higher ticket price.

I think the added costs of running the Indy 500 race this year just by itself is enough to power inflation in the St. Louis Fed region by probably +1%. Maybe more if you factor in the milk for the winner.

The point is, when does a Fed Head stop being a Talking Head for the sell-side?

Second question: Is an economic slowdown a Fed policy initiative? Maybe I'll leave the answer to that to Professor Burton Malkiel, given that he's likely to say that it is a random occurence. You see, if I'm going to ask a question, being a good trader I want to know the answer in advance.

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Global Economics Review

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US Treasury Budget for April. Tax receipts led to a surplus for April of +159.3, just shy of the expected gain of +160.0 billion. Fiscal year-to-date receipts have slowed to a +3.0% gain while outlays were up +7.4%. Individual income tax receipts are up +6.0% while corporate income taxes are down -14.7%.

US Import and Export Prices for April. Import prices surged + 1.8% in April due to energy and food costs, for a Y/Y gain of +15.4%. Export prices also increased, up +0.3% for a +7.7% Y/Y rise.

US Retail Sales for April. Retail sales, ex-auto and gasoline sales, surprised on the upside. Ex-autos, retail sales jumped +0.5% in March after a gain of +0.4% in Feb. Analysts had forecast a +0.3% gain. Ex-autos and gasoline, retail sales lifted a surprising +0.6% in April, after gaining +0.2% in March.

US Business Inventories for March. Lower inventories caused by less production and a greater than anticipated drawdown by retailers resulted in a positive report.

US Consumer Price Index for March. This was a shocking report, stretching all credibility. The authorities in govt are stating that consumer inflation in March grew by just + 0.2% and just + 0.1% if food and energy costs are factored out. The mind boggles. Surely these reports ought to be produced by the private sector.

New York Fed survey for May of manufacturing in NY. Prior to this report, I stated: “Can we really trust the New York Fed? Did manufacturing really stabilize in April?” Now the report suggests that general business conditions in New York state are atrocious.

Philadelphia Fed survey for May of manufacturing in the region. Conditions are bad.

US Production Index (mines, factories, utilities) for April. Industrial production is now worse than previously figured.

US Housing Starts for April. April's 1.032 million units (annualized) were down -30.6% Y/Y, but were above the consensus expectation for a 0.940 million units.

The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for May. The index dropped from an already very low 62.6 in April to a yet lower 59.5. A reading this low last occurred in 1980. I forewarned with my statement a week ago, “This is the new American dance, “The Paulson-Bernanke Limbo”. How low can they go?”

So much for last week, it was another bad one although retail sales started to pick up.

Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar, which is a quiet pre-Memorial Day week:

US Economic Calendar.

US Producer Price Index data for April.

US Existing Home Sales data for April. A pick-up in sales is needed to start reducing the overhang in supply, which is depressing prices.

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are global in scope. If the global economy suffers further contraction, there is little more the monetary authorities can do. High inflation rates will likely mean very few central bank rate cuts in the next couple years.

Weekly International Economic Report .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This was a rally week in a Bear market: 22 Dow components up and 8 down.

The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite gained +1.9%, +2.7%, and +3.4% respectively, led by the commodity price sensitive Basic Materials and Energy and by Tech.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Tech, including Semi-conductors, shows continued strength.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 10 sectors up and 0 down.

(From the WIR of a week ago) Anyway, let’s agree that it’s a Bear market. We could even agree that it will be that until (i) Industrial Production and Real Estate Construction turn around, and (ii) Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) starts writing off assets and accordingly restocks their capital base, if they can.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	45.88	0.53	1.17%	5.23%	7.78%	3.43%	11.09%	13.99%	13.82%	14.27%
XLE	88.95	3.13	3.65%	4.93%	9.18%	6.25%	11.89%	22.10%	22.86%	35.39%
SMH	33.28	0.13	0.39%	4.85%	4.69%	9.47%	6.12%	16.45%	1.49%	-11.13%
IYZ	26.92	0.15	0.56%	4.26%	3.22%	12.26%	-7.71%	5.73%	-9.33%	-19.26%
XLY	33.44	-0.23	-0.68%	3.85%	0.75%	4.27%	3.85%	3.75%	-1.88%	-14.91%
XLK	25.37	-0.06	-0.24%	3.55%	2.34%	6.51%	-2.87%	11.66%	-3.02%	0.48%
SPY	142.66	0.13	0.09%	2.71%	0.81%	3.02%	-1.57%	5.56%	-2.15%	-5.90%
XLI	39.28	-0.10	-0.25%	2.69%	0.98%	2.51%	2.00%	6.83%	1.37%	2.53%
XLP	28.49	-0.01	-0.04%	2.48%	1.35%	1.90%	0.35%	4.17%	-0.28%	3.37%
XLU	40.89	0.41	1.01%	2.15%	-0.32%	0.94%	-2.85%	2.61%	-1.90%	-4.24%
XLF	26.26	-0.24	-0.91%	1.04%	-5.10%	-0.72%	-7.40%	-2.12%	-13.62%	-30.73%
IYH	63.74	0.08	0.13%	0.71%	-1.19%	0.08%	-9.07%	-4.58%	-10.25%	-11.47%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

I use XLK for the Tech sector for a total of ten (10) sectors, but also include Semiconductors (SMH) because it is my bellwether on the economy plus use SPY to see where each sector stands relative the broad market.

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ECA	94.10	2.29	2.49%	9.51%	19.33%	9.13%	35.18%	34.83%	38.30%	55.72%
PBR	70.65	2.38	3.49%	9.37%	-43.22%	-43.70%	-40.54%	-38.27%	-33.20%	32.70%
STO	41.68	1.81	4.54%	9.20%	12.44%	23.31%	33.42%	44.52%	35.02%	55.00%
SU	134.82	5.36	4.14%	7.99%	20.87%	16.01%	22.26%	39.91%	31.83%	61.46%
TOT	88.25	2.97	3.48%	6.39%	5.00%	8.74%	5.97%	21.72%	10.33%	20.84%
CEO	192.08	-1.62	-0.84%	6.13%	9.14%	7.72%	14.73%	21.15%	17.65%	112.34%
PTR	146.94	1.57	1.08%	4.58%	-6.39%	16.48%	-15.38%	-2.95%	-22.62%	12.60%
RIG	160.54	5.14	3.31%	4.48%	5.67%	1.17%	10.00%	24.38%	35.76%	77.53%
XOM	92.67	1.37	1.50%	4.33%	3.41%	-1.41%	-0.90%	8.55%	8.90%	13.78%
CVX	100.38	1.89	1.92%	3.07%	5.31%	7.73%	7.40%	20.07%	16.75%	24.34%
SLB	105.31	1.86	1.80%	0.29%	5.70%	3.40%	4.70%	25.25%	12.68%	37.66%
IMO	57.07	0.18	0.32%	-1.21%	3.01%	-3.19%	3.91%	6.47%	7.86%	34.89%

Energy (XLE +4.9% W/W) has enjoyed a solid two weeks, although much of this week’s gain was earned on Friday (+3.7%).

Crude Oil ($WTIC +0.06% W/W) retained its strength on the basis of Friday’s move of +1.77%, closing at 126.04.

The Canadian oil and gas sector was strong again (ECA +9.5% and SU +8.0%), following the week earlier gain of +11.9% for each of these surging stocks. Imperial Oil (IMO) though had a small loss on the week.

PetroBrazil (PTR) gained +9.4% and Statoil (STO) was up +9.2% as share prices are reflecting the underlying asset prices based on 100+ oil.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PKX	144.38	0.48	0.33%	13.16%	15.84%	23.97%	-1.42%	5.76%	-9.17%	27.57%
GGB	48.87	2.88	6.26%	12.42%	16.94%	31.16%	70.28%	72.32%	62.74%	120.73%
RIO	43.91	1.74	4.13%	10.94%	10.02%	15.77%	34.24%	37.09%	24.04%	-3.26%
TS	59.15	1.27	2.19%	10.87%	9.72%	8.93%	33.25%	56.69%	22.59%	30.23%
AA	43.15	0.41	0.96%	10.53%	19.50%	19.00%	19.43%	20.80%	18.84%	10.53%
RTP	554.93	8.43	1.54%	9.86%	14.57%	13.18%	32.22%	27.41%	25.43%	95.52%
BHP	95.00	1.58	1.69%	8.05%	13.10%	17.34%	34.92%	35.71%	27.12%	84.25%
TCK	51.71	1.53	3.05%	7.66%	18.52%	8.57%	42.69%	56.37%	22.77%	26.96%
MT	101.56	0.98	0.97%	7.39%	13.92%	14.37%	32.93%	44.06%	43.55%	77.12%
VCP	32.80	-0.35	-1.06%	6.42%	4.16%	4.43%	10.44%	8.29%	0.09%	60.16%
NUE	82.07	0.63	0.77%	4.67%	10.46%	11.03%	41.57%	32.35%	56.44%	23.66%
DOW	42.88	0.38	0.89%	4.00%	5.12%	7.25%	10.66%	11.03%	6.64%	-7.37%

Basic Materials (XLB +5.23%) was the winning sector this week, switching positions with Energy. The gain on Friday was a healthy +1.17%, not as much as XLE, but reflective of the very weak $USD on Friday.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FLR	191.37	-0.27	-0.14%	16.71%	25.23%	19.53%	32.53%	58.45%	41.88%	91.37%
ABB	32.69	0.25	0.77%	4.98%	5.86%	16.88%	14.14%	42.56%	16.88%	61.43%
HON	61.81	-0.62	-0.99%	3.73%	1.95%	1.34%	3.19%	10.30%	10.61%	6.31%
ERJ	42.09	0.25	0.60%	3.44%	0.02%	-0.31%	-6.74%	-4.71%	-13.80%	-10.81%
MMM	78.66	0.80	1.03%	3.07%	0.14%	-5.11%	-4.90%	-1.61%	-3.57%	-8.55%
TXT	62.43	-1.81	-2.82%	2.56%	0.69%	2.39%	-6.56%	9.09%	-2.67%	19.71%
CAT	83.70	0.20	0.24%	2.37%	1.09%	-1.85%	18.50%	19.66%	20.54%	10.20%
BA	85.17	-0.38	-0.44%	1.32%	-0.61%	8.28%	-1.67%	-0.01%	-5.36%	-10.67%
UTX	73.96	-0.33	-0.44%	1.13%	-1.52%	2.00%	-1.66%	3.40%	-0.46%	8.00%
UPS	70.77	-0.59	-0.83%	0.68%	-3.43%	-3.31%	2.33%	-2.28%	-1.72%	-0.80%
FDX	90.95	0.09	0.10%	0.64%	-6.10%	-5.96%	5.56%	3.45%	-6.04%	-16.51%
GE	32.13	-0.24	-0.74%	-0.43%	-3.63%	-1.71%	-12.60%	-6.52%	-16.87%	-12.76%

The Industrials (XLI +2.69% W/W) were strong, except for GE (-0.43% W/W), and except for Friday’s small loss (-0.25%).

Construction operator Fluor (+16.7% to 191.37) has been on fire, up +25.2% in two weeks because Q1 profits lifted +63% to $138 million, exceeding analysts' predictions. The stock was $150 at the beginning of the month.

Competitor ABB (ABB) was also hot this week, up +5.0%. Like Fluor, these companies receive long-term contracts that are mostly resistant to the effects of inflation or short-term economic weakness. But traders need to catch them early on the upswing, which sometimes can be seen in the additional trading volumes.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TGT	54.88	-0.22	-0.40%	5.05%	1.80%	0.51%	10.85%	3.41%	1.86%	-4.24%
BBBY	33.78	-0.81	-2.34%	4.94%	2.05%	4.29%	19.11%	15.49%	7.55%	-15.63%
JCP	45.01	-1.31	-2.83%	4.89%	-0.38%	11.72%	8.07%	-3.54%	4.21%	-40.56%
NKE	67.53	-0.49	-0.72%	4.10%	-0.19%	-0.53%	6.72%	8.41%	7.81%	27.44%
GOL	16.51	-0.01	-0.06%	3.90%	-3.79%	8.62%	-31.18%	-10.90%	-38.69%	-43.75%
EBAY	31.17	-0.76	-2.38%	3.90%	0.19%	-1.70%	-4.06%	12.16%	-4.80%	-6.26%
WHR	74.87	-1.02	-1.34%	3.37%	-0.97%	-8.71%	-6.27%	-15.39%	-1.69%	-32.91%
BC	16.73	-0.03	-0.18%	3.21%	-0.48%	4.24%	-1.12%	-1.76%	-18.43%	-49.06%
DIS	34.91	-0.08	-0.23%	1.78%	4.24%	11.43%	9.64%	7.45%	7.32%	-3.05%
BDK	67.51	-0.87	-1.27%	1.03%	-0.15%	-1.20%	-3.46%	-0.95%	-20.15%	-27.61%
TM	101.87	-2.25	-2.16%	0.55%	-2.93%	0.32%	-4.31%	-8.22%	-7.56%	-16.85%
CCL	39.65	-0.71	-1.76%	-0.18%	-5.46%	-6.66%	-9.18%	-4.11%	-11.71%	-17.21%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY +3.85% W/W) did not sink this week despite more high prices at the fuel pump. This seems to be the effect of the cash payout program of the US government.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PDA	61.86	2.31	3.88%	10.70%	5.20%	22.08%	28.53%	28.07%	16.08%	81.62%
SBUX	17.05	0.98	6.08%	7.49%	3.57%	-6.74%	-11.72%	-6.79%	-26.42%	-39.55%
KR	27.96	0.97	3.59%	6.31%	2.16%	11.84%	8.92%	4.06%	-2.41%	-5.06%
ABV	78.55	-0.16	-0.20%	6.01%	-0.46%	2.29%	8.37%	4.29%	5.08%	21.52%
WAG	36.37	-0.19	-0.52%	3.94%	3.09%	1.14%	-2.60%	2.54%	-9.01%	-19.68%
PG	66.75	0.39	0.59%	2.36%	-0.07%	-0.63%	-7.69%	0.68%	-8.80%	5.42%
KO	57.07	0.06	0.11%	1.64%	-2.89%	-5.06%	-6.58%	-2.88%	-8.86%	8.21%
BUD	51.73	-0.08	-0.15%	1.57%	2.88%	7.88%	0.19%	7.73%	4.00%	2.88%
PEP	67.87	-0.20	-0.29%	0.53%	-1.78%	-3.87%	-9.86%	-5.38%	-8.47%	-1.12%
WMT	57.04	-0.08	-0.14%	-0.24%	-0.80%	1.30%	21.62%	15.37%	23.09%	20.90%
DEO	81.00	1.16	1.45%	-0.43%	-1.66%	-2.54%	-4.77%	-3.05%	-9.29%	-4.24%
WFMI	29.06	-0.06	-0.21%	-11.35%	-16.92%	-11.81%	-26.91%	-25.72%	-35.86%	-27.02%

Consumer Staples (XLP +2.48% W/W). Starbucks (SBUX +7.5%) had a good week for a change. Actually it had a good day – on Friday SBUX was up +6.1%. A couple hedge funds --Nelson Peltz’s Trian and Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital— announced they took large positions. I wonder if they were reading me from a recent blog? (LOL)

Whole Foods Market (WFMI) took a hit of -11.4% W/W after the Q1 earnings dropped -13%, missing analyst’s estimates. Besides, in a price-conscious inflationary economy, the always high prices at Whole Foods are given a second thought by many of their customers.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	70.19	1.36	1.98%	2.42%	4.39%	-3.48%	4.14%	-3.41%	-6.40%	-10.62%
NVO	68.98	1.29	1.91%	2.21%	2.85%	-3.12%	8.12%	5.64%	-43.68%	-32.12%
GSK	44.46	0.47	1.07%	1.28%	-1.98%	2.63%	-11.38%	0.61%	-9.17%	-21.73%
PFE	20.03	-0.05	-0.25%	1.21%	-2.81%	-2.15%	-12.57%	-10.30%	-14.37%	-26.68%
BMY	21.94	-0.03	-0.14%	1.06%	-6.04%	-0.72%	-16.04%	-5.84%	-21.05%	-27.06%
NVS	51.36	0.17	0.33%	0.88%	0.33%	7.47%	-5.88%	2.25%	-2.80%	-10.58%
AET	43.56	0.75	1.75%	0.72%	1.33%	4.24%	-23.09%	-14.32%	-20.68%	-16.33%
JNJ	66.68	0.00	0.00%	0.20%	-2.31%	0.26%	1.17%	6.01%	-1.58%	5.76%
AMGN	42.03	-0.02	-0.05%	-0.05%	-2.10%	-2.41%	-9.81%	-9.88%	-24.26%	-22.64%
MDT	46.98	-0.09	-0.19%	-1.69%	-4.61%	-6.02%	-5.09%	-4.36%	2.64%	-10.12%
UNH	32.32	0.62	1.96%	-1.88%	-3.44%	-13.23%	-42.97%	-32.30%	-39.50%	-39.93%
WLP	51.53	1.65	3.31%	-2.28%	0.39%	6.38%	-40.77%	-31.36%	-36.87%	-39.28%

Not much happening this week, yet again, as IYH gained +0.71% for #10 of 10 sector ETF’s in my watchlist.

Genentech (DNA) gained +2.4% as the leader and Wellpoint (WPT) lost 2.3% as the loser in my watchlist, which shows that prices were tight across the board in the healthcare sector.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBN	44.46	-0.26	-0.58%	4.66%	-5.20%	5.41%	-28.46%	-25.14%	-29.28%	-6.71%
HBC	87.12	0.06	0.07%	3.63%	-0.63%	2.68%	5.68%	20.53%	-0.22%	-6.51%
BBD	23.40	0.33	1.43%	3.13%	-4.88%	7.93%	-23.10%	-14.22%	-27.01%	-5.15%
MS	47.21	-0.50	-1.05%	2.72%	-6.16%	-1.17%	-7.34%	11.55%	-10.76%	-43.85%
DB	118.85	0.24	0.20%	1.38%	-1.76%	-2.24%	-7.91%	7.78%	-3.75%	-24.32%
MER	48.85	-1.12	-2.24%	0.83%	-7.32%	3.17%	-7.41%	-5.40%	-12.94%	-47.18%
CS	54.32	-0.53	-0.97%	0.28%	-2.11%	1.63%	-8.98%	6.76%	-9.89%	-28.63%
LEH	43.64	-1.13	-2.52%	0.23%	-7.19%	-4.09%	-29.83%	-20.32%	-30.04%	-40.50%
JPM	46.53	-0.49	-1.04%	-0.09%	-4.38%	1.68%	10.34%	7.58%	7.98%	-12.17%
GS	187.14	-1.48	-0.78%	-0.51%	-6.56%	4.01%	-9.86%	4.89%	-16.92%	-17.60%
UBS	30.77	-0.33	-1.06%	-0.87%	-11.58%	-12.88%	-32.80%	-7.15%	-35.29%	-51.64%
C	23.12	-0.61	-2.57%	-2.16%	-12.39%	-7.93%	-20.06%	-9.26%	-32.00%	-57.89%

After the Financials (XLF) lost -6.1% a week ago, this week they gained +1.04% W/W, but that was only the 9th best performance out of 10, and there was also a loss of -0.91% on Friday, which was a strong market day.

However, there was improvement: Citi (C -2.2% W/W) had been down -10.5% the week earlier.

India’s ICICI Bank (IBN +4.7%) was the leader on my watchlist.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	32.44	-0.66	-1.99%	11.17%	11.13%	18.39%	-2.20%	27.87%	-13.17%	-27.00%
QCOM	46.90	1.90	4.22%	7.27%	5.80%	10.22%	22.17%	11.14%	13.39%	4.11%
INFY	46.01	-0.57	-1.22%	7.22%	2.38%	6.80%	3.56%	11.78%	9.16%	-10.56%
INTC	25.00	0.03	0.12%	6.97%	6.02%	10.86%	-1.38%	24.32%	-2.00%	12.71%
CTSH	31.55	-0.08	-0.25%	6.12%	-4.57%	1.91%	-2.11%	-3.10%	0.48%	-18.79%
ADBE	42.26	0.26	0.62%	5.94%	4.66%	16.52%	1.32%	21.89%	0.17%	-0.07%
SAP	51.61	0.86	1.69%	5.93%	3.20%	-0.65%	1.73%	7.95%	0.72%	10.85%
RIMM	140.36	-0.35	-0.25%	5.72%	6.40%	13.91%	23.44%	47.45%	30.48%	176.95%
ADSK	40.74	-0.20	-0.49%	4.19%	3.35%	22.45%	-15.55%	6.79%	-12.22%	-6.99%
CSCO	26.51	0.01	0.04%	4.00%	-0.90%	8.16%	-0.11%	13.78%	-11.46%	0.11%
ORCL	21.68	-0.19	-0.87%	3.24%	0.79%	-0.55%	-3.60%	13.57%	4.23%	14.17%
AAPL	187.62	-2.11	-1.11%	2.27%	3.69%	16.51%	-3.71%	50.54%	12.76%	74.79%

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Tech (XLK +3.55%) including Semi-conductors (SMH +4.85%) were clearly pulling the market higher this week.

QCOM (+7.3%) and INFY (+7.2%) were leaders and AAPL (+2.3%) at the bottom of my list was still strong as it was a week earlier.

In last week’s WIR I gave you a heads-up with SanDisk. I wrote: “SanDisk (SNDK) was ok—didn’t pull back after the prior week’s big gains in spite of broad market weakness.” This week SNDK jumped +11.2%. So traders have to watch a stock’s price performance relative to its peer group as well as the market as a whole. Try to spot anomalies, and then try to analyze possible reasons.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ +4.26% W/W) gained after a soft week and that one happened after a very strong one (up +4.8%) where the IYZ was #1 for two weeks in a row.

VZ +2.3% and T +3.8% were both strong.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU +2.15% W/W) had a good week, but was still performer 8 out of 10.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.60	1.58	1.44	1.22
6 Month	1.68	1.66	1.63	1.46
2 Year	2.24	2.21	2.45	1.76
3 Year	2.18	2.15	2.37	1.69
5 Year	2.96	2.97	3.17	2.60
10 Year	3.77	3.78	3.86	3.48
30 Year	4.52	4.54	4.58	4.32

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.39	2.34	2.45	2.33
2yr AAA	2.40	2.28	2.45	2.32
2yr A	2.81	2.59	2.64	2.76
5yr AAA	2.99	2.88	3.07	2.99
5yr AA	2.89	2.88	3.11	3.03
5yr A	3.30	3.40	3.45	3.24
10yr AAA	3.65	3.60	3.72	3.58
10yr AA	3.62	3.63	4.06	3.49
10yr A	3.65	3.69	4.13	3.75
20yr AAA	4.38	4.47	4.82	4.34
20yr AA	4.46	4.48	4.59	4.70
20yr A	4.37	4.43	4.73	4.64

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.02	4.04	3.97	4.08
2yr A	3.81	3.86	3.72	3.81
5yr AAA	4.14	3.66	4.21	4.34
5yr AA	4.76	4.66	4.60	4.64
5yr A	4.98	4.95	4.81	5.29
10yr AAA	5.02	5.04	5.53	5.30
10yr AA	6.00	5.73	5.83	5.98
10yr A	5.48	5.56	5.50	5.54
20yr AAA	6.09	6.07	6.04	6.69
20yr AA	5.97	6.08	5.74	5.75
20yr A	6.35	6.33	6.30	6.55

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The yield tables were incorrect this weekend, showing the past Saturday’s results, so I’ll skip over it. Suffice to say that yields were up and bond prices down.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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The TLT lost -0.71% W/W, almost as much as it gained a week earlier.

The TIPS were basically flat.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	29.89	-0.34	-1.12%	7.48%	1.32%	4.69%	-20.21%	1.70%	-26.54%	-52.73%
FRE	26.97	-0.30	-1.10%	7.24%	-0.44%	-0.33%	-17.62%	-5.04%	-33.77%	-59.94%
EQR	44.07	-0.18	-0.41%	5.81%	1.01%	3.96%	20.97%	14.17%	16.71%	-6.25%
AVB	104.19	-1.05	-1.00%	4.81%	-1.12%	3.05%	14.06%	13.13%	2.26%	-13.46%
NLY	17.34	0.20	1.17%	4.65%	2.06%	2.24%	-4.20%	-15.00%	3.58%	9.54%
DRE	26.62	0.17	0.64%	4.07%	3.38%	10.96%	3.90%	12.94%	-3.20%	-34.13%
CFC	4.9400	-0.0300	-0.60%	3.78%	-17.39%	-13.03%	-45.11%	-28.72%	-59.07%	-87.75%
TIP	107.72	0.00	0.00%	-0.10%	1.32%	0.15%	1.01%	0.18%	2.47%	7.75%
AGG	101.91	-0.25	-0.24%	-0.29%	-0.02%	-0.09%	0.26%	-0.04%	0.91%	2.00%
SHY	83.01	0.02	0.02%	-0.32%	0.12%	-0.42%	0.81%	-0.74%	1.24%	3.54%
IEF	88.45	-0.15	-0.17%	-0.65%	0.33%	-1.11%	0.94%	-0.60%	2.73%	7.03%
TLT	91.84	-0.38	-0.41%	-0.71%	0.25%	-1.00%	-2.69%	-0.04%	-0.62%	4.52%

The big three of the mortgage suppliers, CFC, FNM and FRE, were strong this week, up +4.94%, +7.48%, and +7.24% respectively.

Congress is going to permit smaller down-payments, which seems to be the problem the housing market had in the past couple years. The week ended soft for these companies however.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB lost -0.25% W/W to close at 426.43, but it would have been worse without Friday’s gain of +1.14%.

Two weeks ago, I wrote: “Every time CRB looks ready to plunge down through the 50d MA, Crude Oil picks up. The stories come mostly from pipeline issues, rebel action, warship maneuvers, etc. This should be a Hollywood script.” This week it was a US missile sent into the Middle East. Maybe I should have said “scripted”.

As I pointed out a week ago, “The game by smart insiders may be to crank the commodity group first and then sell it off slowly to switch into the other stocks in trying to kick-start the market.”

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) consolidated its previous week’s gain of +$9.64/bbl with a minimal (+0.06%) gain from 125.96 to 126.04. There was a high of 127.42 on Friday.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 112.48 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 93.87.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD gained +$14.10/oz this week after a move of +$27.80/oz the prior week to close at $899.90.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 919.52, and the 200d MA is 834.01. So the current price is below the 50-day MA, and well above the 200d MA.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +$0.05 (+0.30%) to close at 16.96.

“Let me remind you that $SILVER was $21.44 just a few weeks ago.” The question no is whether the precious metals can surpass their previous highs or pull-back as I think to retest the cycle lows before continuing their Bull market.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.81, and the 200d MA is 15.33. The current price is below the 50-day MA, and above the 200d MA.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT gained +28.30/oz following the previous week’s gain of +188.10/oz (+9.84%) to close this week at 2128.10.

The 50-day MA is 2011.74 and the 200-day MA is 1646.87. Note that the current price is now above the 50-day MA.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM gained +9.95/0z, following the +$23.40/oz (+5.52%) gain of the prior week, to close at 457.20.

The 50-day MA is now 459.03 and the 200-day MA is 403.25. Note that the current price (457.20) is now well above the 200-day MA, and just under the 50-day MA. Note also that these 50-day MA’s are pulling back now and unless they revert to a bullish trend, this is a dangerous time to be chasing these prices.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +11.00 (+2.96%) to close at 382.65.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 383.24 (the current price is lower) and the 200-day MA is 347.81.

I still think the 50d MA is a battleground for traders.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NEM	48.88	2.15	4.60%	6.89%	9.82%	5.64%	-6.70%	2.07%	-1.63%	23.31%
GG	41.28	0.97	2.41%	4.59%	15.02%	-0.67%	12.66%	11.99%	28.16%	77.02%
AEM	69.25	2.34	3.50%	4.45%	10.75%	-4.05%	22.52%	10.64%	36.05%	101.54%
LIHR	30.43	1.26	4.32%	3.47%	8.02%	1.64%	-8.26%	-3.37%	-11.10%	19.19%
KGC	20.70	0.66	3.29%	3.19%	8.95%	-13.10%	2.73%	-6.55%	18.69%	59.23%
GFI	14.19	0.29	2.09%	3.05%	8.24%	-0.91%	-7.86%	7.34%	-20.01%	-17.07%
BVN	66.38	3.08	4.87%	2.96%	9.79%	-6.20%	9.03%	-2.17%	18.54%	104.43%
EGO	7.650	0.250	3.38%	2.82%	15.91%	2.96%	23.39%	29.66%	33.51%	36.85%
ABX	40.20	1.04	2.66%	2.06%	7.03%	-8.14%	-12.65%	-15.53%	-2.00%	34.99%
HMY	12.55	-0.07	-0.55%	1.70%	8.85%	4.67%	16.74%	24.13%	21.49%	-17.43%
AUY	15.03	0.46	3.16%	1.62%	16.60%	3.73%	8.36%	-0.99%	14.91%	14.65%
AU	39.91	0.66	1.68%	0.38%	17.90%	7.40%	-12.97%	18.25%	-11.21%	-6.29%

The $XAU Goldminers index lifted +8.24 W/W after being up +6.26% the prior week, closing at 187.87.

The better performers included NEM +6.9%, GG +4.6%, and AEM +4.5%, but most of these gains happened on Friday when the $USD dropped sharply based on dubious stuff going on in the Middle East.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 182.67, and the 200d MA is 173.88.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD lost -0.31% to 72.82 this week for a second losing week.

Despite their own issues with the economy, other central banks are standing pat on rates for the past two weeks, so the $USD has weakened.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) gained +0.74% W/W to close at 1.5594.

Despite a couple weeks of gains, I still think it will go down. “Falling, falling, falling.”

In fact, without Friday’s gain of +0.94%, there would not have been a weekly gain.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lifted (+0.22% W/W), but there was a gain of +0.55% on Friday, closing at 1.9574.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 198.34 and 200.63 respectively.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -1.07% W/W to 96.15.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 97.79 and the 200-day MA is 91.44.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +0.54% this week to close Friday at 99.96.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.08 and 99.48 respectively, which means the current price (99.96) is now above both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

I ought to be tracking the China Yuan (CNY). Maybe one day.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cny

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International Equity Markets Review

International equities were strong this week.

UK FTSE from 6204.7 to 6304.30
German DAX from 7003.17 to 7156.55
Aussie All-Ords from 5844.4 to 6006.1
Shanghai Composite from 3613.5 to 3624.23
HK Heng Seng from 25063.2 to 25618.86
India’s BSE 30 to 17434.94
Japan’s Nikkei 225 to 14219.48.

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TRF	68.73	1.48	2.20%	10.39%	15.34%	11.67%	-6.48%	12.67%	0.34%	1.97%
EWZ	99.55	2.06	2.11%	7.18%	6.58%	13.42%	22.97%	26.49%	18.25%	72.22%
EWA	30.32	0.44	1.47%	5.31%	6.65%	10.78%	5.35%	13.43%	-4.17%	9.06%
IFN	49.32	-0.19	-0.38%	4.38%	-5.15%	0.10%	-20.32%	-6.20%	-17.22%	17.79%
EWC	35.32	0.45	1.29%	4.10%	7.32%	6.55%	9.01%	16.26%	9.25%	21.25%
EWQ	37.78	0.40	1.07%	3.93%	2.80%	3.08%	-0.42%	14.35%	-1.33%	-1.20%
EWJ	13.62	0.05	0.37%	3.73%	1.87%	3.97%	2.95%	9.49%	0.96%	-5.48%
EWG	34.21	0.65	1.94%	3.73%	3.89%	4.43%	-3.33%	11.04%	-1.30%	8.60%
EWH	19.80	-0.13	-0.65%	3.07%	-1.20%	5.71%	-9.13%	3.12%	-8.12%	15.25%
EWU	23.56	0.41	1.77%	2.48%	1.64%	2.35%	-1.34%	9.48%	-6.51%	-6.62%
EWS	13.70	0.04	0.29%	1.18%	-1.79%	0.29%	1.56%	9.16%	-2.21%	0.74%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A rally is what it is.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AA	43.15	0.41	0.96%	10.53%	19.50%	19.00%	19.43%	20.80%	18.84%	10.53%
INTC	25.00	0.03	0.12%	6.97%	6.02%	10.86%	-1.38%	24.32%	-2.00%	12.71%
XOM	92.67	1.37	1.50%	4.33%	3.41%	-1.41%	-0.90%	8.55%	8.90%	13.78%
HD	29.10	-0.43	-1.46%	4.00%	-3.39%	1.46%	11.45%	5.74%	0.10%	-24.16%
T	40.07	0.21	0.53%	3.84%	-0.15%	6.82%	-2.27%	5.78%	1.31%	-2.60%
CVX	100.38	1.89	1.92%	3.07%	5.31%	7.73%	7.40%	20.07%	16.75%	24.34%
MMM	78.66	0.80	1.03%	3.07%	0.14%	-5.11%	-4.90%	-1.61%	-3.57%	-8.55%
IBM	127.82	-0.64	-0.50%	3.03%	3.77%	2.75%	22.09%	20.40%	21.98%	20.73%
MRK	40.00	0.00	0.00%	2.59%	1.60%	0.60%	-30.28%	-15.84%	-31.48%	-24.08%
DD	49.63	0.11	0.22%	2.46%	-0.46%	-4.59%	13.47%	9.10%	9.53%	-3.63%
CAT	83.70	0.20	0.24%	2.37%	1.09%	-1.85%	18.50%	19.66%	20.54%	10.20%
PG	66.75	0.39	0.59%	2.36%	-0.07%	-0.63%	-7.69%	0.68%	-8.80%	5.42%
VZ	38.77	-0.13	-0.33%	2.27%	-2.07%	7.60%	-10.28%	2.48%	-11.26%	-9.29%
MCD	60.53	-0.33	-0.54%	2.18%	-0.69%	3.83%	4.18%	9.46%	4.13%	16.47%
MSFT	29.99	-0.46	-1.51%	2.04%	2.56%	-0.03%	-14.85%	5.52%	-12.03%	-3.48%
GM	20.68	-0.15	-0.72%	1.92%	-10.86%	2.73%	-15.28%	-20.86%	-29.35%	-34.85%
DIS	34.91	-0.08	-0.23%	1.78%	4.24%	11.43%	9.64%	7.45%	7.32%	-3.05%
KO	57.07	0.06	0.11%	1.64%	-2.89%	-5.06%	-6.58%	-2.88%	-8.86%	8.21%
BA	85.17	-0.38	-0.44%	1.32%	-0.61%	8.28%	-1.67%	-0.01%	-5.36%	-10.67%
PFE	20.03	-0.05	-0.25%	1.21%	-2.81%	-2.15%	-12.57%	-10.30%	-14.37%	-26.68%
UTX	73.96	-0.33	-0.44%	1.13%	-1.52%	2.00%	-1.66%	3.40%	-0.46%	8.00%
JNJ	66.68	0.00	0.00%	0.20%	-2.31%	0.26%	1.17%	6.01%	-1.58%	5.76%
JPM	46.53	-0.49	-1.04%	-0.09%	-4.38%	1.68%	10.34%	7.58%	7.98%	-12.17%
WMT	57.04	-0.08	-0.14%	-0.24%	-0.80%	1.30%	21.62%	15.37%	23.09%	20.90%
GE	32.13	-0.24	-0.74%	-0.43%	-3.63%	-1.71%	-12.60%	-6.52%	-16.87%	-12.76%
AXP	48.68	-1.18	-2.37%	-0.57%	-3.41%	6.92%	-4.62%	7.91%	-17.03%	-23.91%
BAC	36.17	-0.54	-1.47%	-1.31%	-9.10%	-6.20%	-10.82%	-15.29%	-18.48%	-29.24%
C	23.12	-0.61	-2.57%	-2.16%	-12.39%	-7.93%	-20.06%	-9.26%	-32.00%	-57.89%
AIG	39.34	-0.23	-0.58%	-2.33%	-19.78%	-18.43%	-30.12%	-14.68%	-30.30%	-45.71%
HPQ	47.29	0.56	1.20%	-3.75%	-2.21%	-1.85%	-5.06%	7.80%	-6.82%	4.60%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two Dow 30 companies: Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100] and 3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]

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(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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One look at (i) Value Line’s projected Annualized Total Investment Returns for DIS (estimated 21% hi and 13% low) and MMM (11% hi and 6% low) shows why the former is a Global Cara 100 and the other was dropped in 2006. Besides the 3M operating and financial performance is not what it used to be. Margins and Returns on Capital and on Equity are falling, while for Disney just the opposite is happening. Yet, I still like 3M to keep it in the US Cara 100.

The Value Line analyst believes that 3M’s products are largely recession-proof, but the 2001 recession proved otherwise. Revenue, cash flow and earnings per share dropped at that point.

Disney under the latest CEO Robert Iger is an impressive story. The business needs good management because they deal with discretionary purchasing consumers who have lots of options. TV (ABC and ESPN) is 42% of revenues; Theme Parks, Resorts and Cruises are 30%; Films are 21% and Stores at 7%. The brand is strong.

The price hit a low of $26.30 on Jan-22 and is now at $34.91 (with an intra-day 2008 high of 35.02 on Friday), close to its 52-week high of 36.79 on May-23-07. The RSI-7 is showing weakness ahead on the Daily-Weekly combination, but the Monthly has some upside. This would be a good stock to write covered calls and on strong days, maybe if the stock is called away, to buy some long-dated puts at a 35 strike. But at the market cycle bottom and with this stock, at that point likely in the Accumulation Zone, I would be back with long positions in the stock, long-dated calls and put writes.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 23)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 7: next one is due Jun. 6)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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Wrap up:

This was a quick review as I’m now headed to the Family Island of Eleuthera, flying into Governor’s Harbour Airport in a small plane, returning tomorrow late in the day.

Each of the islands of The Bahamas has a distinct history and culture. In Eleuthera, in particular, you cannot even tell from the north to the south part of the island if you are in the same hemisphere, the places are so different.

And there are so many different islands. It takes time to see them all.

What follows next week in the market is anybody’s guess. The truth is that central bankers have things pretty much under control right now. Not being in the room, we can only wait to see what they plan to do. That’s not a good thing for the so-called “free” capital market. The problem is that equity prices today are contrived by bankers to a significant degree, much the same as they did for the asset-backed securities they held on their books for several years, at dubious prices.

The collective interest of using market prices to discover value, which is the purpose of capital markets, is now replaced by the interest of central bankers to help commercial and investment bankers survive the process of regeneration.

Meanwhile the public will be told that the system still works, but we know it doesn’t for us, only for them.

Have a great weekend. Next weekend is Memorial Day in the US and I’m looking forward to see the Indy race where the CART and Indy League teams are back together again.

Enjoy your weekend. Time to kick back with Kalik.

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