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May 4, 2008
Week in Review #18 (2008-05-04)
Home-owners in 2004 would not have been pushed into selling during those high-flying years just because they were alarmed at the expanding debt bubble that was hoisting real-estate prices to the moon. Neither should traders in 2Q08 want to sell stocks just because they worry that central bankers are out of control.
You may think this is a capitulation of sorts on my part, but it is not. A trader's level of concern may rise and fall, but that may not be a sufficient call to action. You see, we must trade prices, even when bankers manufacture them and manipulate them, and render them temporarily useless as a measure of economic value.
Regrettably, we are all now forced to be day-traders, and the new “Dow Theory Buy Signal” for many international markets, pointed out by Twiggs and I presume others, cannot be ignored. Smart traders take into consideration everything they can, and Dow Theory is one of the most important of the thousand points of light.
What does this introduction mean? It means simply that, due to the massive credit expansion that started with the JP Morgan take-over of Bear Stearns, followed by the continued efforts by the Fed to flood new money into the banks, and by the Treasury Secretary to pander to Joe Public with 1-800-HELP telephone lines and instant tax rebates or money giveaways, that I anticipate seeing share prices rise for a bit longer, and the bullish Dow Theory signal will bring more bids to the market. Traders should not ignore that evidence.
But that does not mean you should assume the underlying value of the equity is rising; it is not. In fact, every argument that says new wealth is being created by governments, banks and, for the most part, the service sector is flat-out wrong. Value creation through construction and manufacturing is clearly on a steep decline in America, and, to be frank, in too many other countries to ignore.
The sad reality is that all the free money being thrown around today is being done to save bankers from their own bankruptcy, a fact that will in time be recognized by your young children and their children.
The fact is that a price of a blue chip stock can be financially engineered just the same as a crooked stock promoter can do for a penny stock.
Do you recall the time I told you when a promoter from Vancouver came to see me when I was working for Canada’s 800-pound broker-dealer gorilla in the early 1980’s in Toronto? He was pushing penny stock and I was one of the few who worked for a white-shoes firm in the city who would listen. I did ok by that practice, but that’s another story.
Anyway, this young man had been a practicing physician in Ontario who had been captured by the lure of record high prices of gold in 1980-81, so he quit his practice and moved to Vancouver to apprentice for a man who later became a friend of mine, a real scoundrel in the eyes of securities regulators but a person who in running the promotion for a stable of about 100 public companies raised incredible capital for natural resources company exploration.
So this ex-practicing physician and newly minted stock promoter came into my office with a story he wanted me to hear. “My stock is $1.00 today, but it’s going to be $1.50 on Monday. You need to jump in now.” So why, I asked. “Oh, do you want it to be $1.75?” he said.
…Absolutely a true story. I have seen it all.
Bernanke to Paulson, “So, Hank, when do you need the Dow at 14000?”
I cannot say the latter is a true story, but only because I wasn’t in the room. However, I am not an idiot; I don’t have to be in the room. The market tells me what’s going on.
I can see the desperation in the eyes of the Talking Heads on Financial Entertainment Television. There is no soul behind the words. These people are hurting. They have families who are in tears having lost their homes in the Hamptons. They are being ordered, under pressure of dismissal, to smile for the cameras.
For all I care, these people can do whatever they have to do to make a living, as long as it’s legal. They have careers and families to take care of. I cannot sit in moral judgment.
But I also don’t take the advice of desperate people, particularly sales people who, if they were in real estate, would be offering me swampland for beachfront property, or expensive Miami Brickell Avenue condos for what is really the unstated need to take over condo management costs since many of the buildings are empty.
What goes around comes around, and it will in the equity market too, especially when in too many cases the equity in stocks (like banks for example) is implied and not real.
So here we are, ready to buy stock prices higher just because they are going higher. The game of musical chairs has begun, with one difference: when the music stops, the Humungous Bankers and Brokers (HB&B) will have been tipped in advance and their chairs will have been assured by Prof. Bernanke… paid for in advance by our children and our children’s children.
To be practical, if you want to join the rush into stocks, and I hope not because RSI and Stochastics are too high at this point, why not look at the recent Accumulation Zone stocks of the Cara 100. At least these have some upside potential because they have been recently oversold. Starbucks (SBUX) for one is not a broken company. Their offering is not a place for discretionary purchases of over-priced coffee; it’s a lifestyle-oriented Internet café, which in a high-pressure world is, in my eyes, a staple. If the $USD continues to rally, the cost of coffee beans is likely to come down, as will oil prices, and so the customers are more likely to have a couple extra bucks to pay for that $4 peach- or double-chocko flavored latte.
Just remember that, in my view, this “rush into stocks” is merely a Bear market rally, but one that (with good timing) maybe should not be missed on account of the central bankers of the world being ready, willing and able to work with a lame-duck Treasury Secretary who just might be intent to take the DJIA to 18,000, even if he has to bankrupt America to get it there.
If you do consider following a prices-chasing strategy, for whatever your reasoning, please don’t think your stop loss orders will help much. The reason is simple: your broker-dealer is part of the central bank-HB&B network. They know your orders, they know your financial resources; they know your trading style; and, sadly, they – your trusted advisors – trade against you. They continuously create bursts of volatility to shake out stop positions. They do it to take your money to put into their pockets.
Is this knowledge such a bad thing? Well, we have to deal with reality, so let’s start creating mental stops, or paper stops, followed by market orders when those levels have been violated. There is no reason to hand the time float to the enemy. That’s like going into battle with cap guns and baseball caps. Little Jane and Johnny will get obliterated, real quick. You have to smart – the enemy is using your Assets Under Administration/Management to finance the recruitment of the smartest financial minds in the world to work for them, not you. So deal with it.
The enemy does not like Market Orders – trust me – particularly if they get hit with many at once.
There are times – like this – where day trading and Market Orders are necessary. I wish it were not so.
One final point is that I have not yet recommended (for intermediate- or long-term oriented traders) buying gold because that is a USD hedge play, and the Fed needs the $USD to stay as strong as possible while they buy time (time is their enemy) while they feed short-term money to commercial and investment bankers, hoping to stave a major recession/depression while long-term credit market excesses are corrected.
The Fed needs foreign currencies to flow into the US to buy stocks and bonds, or else the Fed is in trouble. Prof. Bernanke doesn’t have much of a balance sheet left to deal with for monetary policy purposes, and the banks that own him are sick, having too much trouble these days recapitalizing their own balance sheets. But, if bond prices, stock prices and the $USD don’t move up here (as they are), then interest rates will soar because inflation is soaring, and that will force more damage in the housing market crisis, which will cause the credit markets to seize up again. As I say, the Fed is at the end of their rope. The commercial and investment banks need time to raise more capital before we get hit with the next round of the credit market fiasco.
So, as long as I see the $USD strong, and oil and other commodity prices falling, I must believe that the Fed and other central bankers will do what they can to knock down the price of gold. How long and how far they can is the issue. I suspect the answer has a lot to do with how high the bond market goes before supposedly smart long-term oriented fixed income (bond) investors decide to say “no mas, no mas!!” That point will be reached when Americans admit they cannot or will not take any more inflation, and pull out of the stores and shopping malls. So, the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) and in particular the US Retailer industry ($RLX) is going to be a bellwether.
Here’s my recommendation. Insert the following string of ticker symbols into a new portfolio monitor using Google Finance -- the best free stuff available to traders. It is an outstanding tool.
Here is the link to the Google Finance, followed by the string of symbols you need to insert into the window that facilitates setting up a new portfolio. For your information, I glance at this page every day.
Link to Google Finance Portfolio.
56 US-based Retailers:
AMZN,ANF,ANN,BBBY,BBY,BEBE,BJ,BKE,BKS,BONT,CACH,CC,COST,CVS,
CWTR,DBRN,DDS,DLTR,EBAY,ETH,FDO,FRED,GES,GPS,HD,HOTT,IBI,JCP,
JWN,KR,KSS,LOW,LTD,M,NDN,PIR,PSS,PSUN,RAD,ROST,RSH,SBUX,
SHLD,SKS,SWY,TGT,TIF,TJX,TLB,TWB,URBN,WAG,WFMI,WMAR,WMT,WSM
Enjoy.
At the point I think the “Trade of the Generation” is ready to enter – sometime in the next two quarters – I will advise you. That trade (when it comes) will be to sell US Treasury Bonds and to buy Gold in the spot and futures markets.
Global Economics Review
The US economy is a worsening picture.
The fact that in 15 months, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has skyrocketed from $51 to $120, is clear indication the US economy is in deep trouble. Oil prices elsewhere in the world are as bad, which means that the global economy is also in deep trouble. Some traders are in denial. They mistakenly believe there can be a sustainable disconnect between capital markets and the economy.
(Last week’s WIR) The fact that Crude Oil prices ($WTIC) dropped -$2.20/bbl this week to 116.32 is nowhere close to the answer to the question: “When will the economy start to recover?” I suspect the seeds for that will be set if, as and when oil prices back down to south of 80, which will then be the new 51.
Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.
Conference Board reading US Consumer confidence for April. I wrote before the report: “It can’t be good if the U of Michigan reading was the lowest in 27 years.”Econoday later opined, following the report: “The Conference Board issued today one of its most alarming reports on consumer confidence in 40 years of data, results certain to push stocks, the dollar and Treasury yields lower.”
US Govt advance reading of Q1 GDP. I wrote before the report: “Next month will be first adjustment, and the month following that will be the final adjustment. Along the line, the numbers are ridiculously biased estimates, and often quite different from the final figure, which is also an estimate. Unless the data is produced independently, it serves only as a talking point for cheerleaders of the Administration.”
After the report, Econoday opined: “The initial estimate for first quarter GDP is keeping the economy out of the technical definition of recession - but just barely - and gives the Fed a little flexibility over whether to cut the fed funds target rate this afternoon or not. While the markets are primarily betting on another small rate interest rate cut, continued high inflation certainly should give the Fed additional reason to pause. Real GDP came in at an annualized 0.6 percent, compared to the consensus expectation of a 0.3 percent gain and to the fourth quarter's 0.6 percent annualized increase. The first quarter GDP price index firmed to an annualized 2.6 percent boost from the prior quarter's 2.4 percent.”
My response is that without a substantial gain in inventory, the GDP would have been a negative number. The ex-head of the Dallas Fed opined the number would have been -0.2%. Let’s wait to see next month’s adjustment before saying the US economy is definitely not in recession.
US Fed central bank monetary policy decision
US Personal Income and Outlays report for March. I wrote before the report: “The widening gap between the wealthy and the rest in America, which skews these numbers, cannot hide the fact that consumers are becoming desperate, and more unhappy than at any time since 1982. This crisis is being met with the plan of the Administration and Congress to write free money to people in need, and for US retailers offering special discounts to those who spend their “found” money in these stores rather than pay down their debts, which would be the prudent thing to do.”
Econoday wrote after the report: “Spending was up but largely due to higher costs. Inflation was up but more at the headline level than at the core, leaving the consumer sector softer than headline numbers suggest.” I’ll agree.
US manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories for April. I wrote before the report: “The factory sector is contracting despite a falling USD that helps exporters like Boeing. Factory jobs in America continue to be eliminated and sent abroad in a master plan that US bankers are financing.”
Econoday wrote after the report: “…the main index was unchanged at 48.6 in April, just under the breakeven 50 level to indicate very slight month-to-month contraction in business conditions. New orders unfortunately are contracting at a steeper rate, unchanged at 46.5 in the month. Export orders remain the standout component in the report, up 1 point to 57.5 to indicate significant expansion…”
I’ll add: American manufacturing is in deep trouble if the $USD lifts… and guess what?... it’s lifting.
US Construction Spending for March. I opined: “…continues to fall because America is basically bankrupt.”
The result was a sharper-than-expected drop of -1.1% M/M. Wake up America...
US Jobs Report for April. I opined before the report: “Employment falls and unemployment builds. The money giveaway by the Administration and Congress is an attempt to get people working part-time into low-paid service jobs to give the appearance the jobs picture is improving. You know who will take credit (for something that does not exist).”
After the report, Econoday stated: “The April employment report was not nearly as bad as expected and wage pressures came in soft. Overall, the economy is flat rather than declining.” To that, I’ll say “Hogwash!” Take workers off the roles, and replace good jobs with minimum wage jobs (which the workers will do because families need to eat and they need healthcare)… Wake up America!
US Factory Orders for March. I wrote before the report: “When factory orders fell -1.3% in February, worse than the -0.6% estimate and showing a back-to-back decline with January which, together with five consecutive sub-50 reading for new orders in the ISM report, it can only be said that the US manufacturing sector is in dire straits, and spin-masters will do all they can to hide that fact.”
Econoday reported after the report: “The headline reading jumped +1.4 percent in March but reflects an inflation-related 2.6 percent spike in the nondurable goods component which includes fuels. The durable goods component, first released in last week's durable goods report, rose 0.1 percent in the month and is upwardly revised from last week's 0.3 percent decline -- which really represents the best news in the report.”
I can only say, “Wait til next month. Let’s see what happens after consumers don’t buy the inventory on the shelves. US manufacturing is in trouble, and now that the $USD is starting to lift, exports will be pulled down, and it will get worse…”
So much for last week, which was another bad one. Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar:
US ISM non-manufacturing survey for April. Just remember that 1-800-HELP doesn’t last forever.US Productivity and Costs report for Q1 unadjusted. I say this report will be nonsense. Wait til next month and the month after to see the adjustments.
US Existing Home Sales Index for March. Watch for the spin here. Banks are in even more trouble if this report looks bad, so they’ll try hard to make it look good.
US International Trade Deficit for March. The February number was an utter disaster, growing “to $62.3 billion from a revised $59.0 billion shortfall in January and was wider than the consensus forecast for a $57.5 billion figure.” The problem is that Mom & Pop just don’t want to buy American…
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank report monetary policy decisions on Thursday. The talking points will be discussed beforehand with Prof Bernanke. Needless to say, all these economies are sinking, and central bankers will try to put whatever good spin on it they can. They know, however, that the taxpayer bears the burden of whatever decision they make.
The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are global in scope.
Weekly International Economic Report .
It’s amazing to me that central bankers can say they are putting the screws to inflation as Job #1, but in fact are doing just the opposite. These people need to be strapped to lie detector apparatus when they speak.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
For this week, 23 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 7 down.
Party hard my friends; Dow Theory may say otherwise, but this is still a Bear market.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Microsoft (MSFT) vs Yahoo (YHOO) will turn bitter this coming week. Do you think the middle fields of Oregon will serve as the next world war? I mean sunny California vs overcast and rainy Washington State… Seattle vs Silicon Valley… So what; it’s a diversion… I had $50 on Big Brown to win; now it’s on Microsoft.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
This week, there were 8 sectors up and 2 down. Turnaround from a week earlier and everybody seems to be saying the next Bull market has started.
Let’s wait a couple weeks.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
I now use XLK for the Tech sector [and revert to a total of ten (10) sectors], but will also include Semiconductors (SMH), because it is my bellwether on the economy.
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Big gain on Friday; bigger loss the rest of the week. Commodity prices are sinking, and I expect that to continue.
Statoil (STO +6.8%) and PetroChina (PTR +5.0%) were strong, but the Cdns (ECA -3.7%, IMO -3.2% and SU -3.1%) were not.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Brazil and Argentina were hot, hot, hot: GGB +12.6%, RIO +5.3% and TS +3.5%. But Teck (TCK -4.1%) and Rio Tinto (RTP -3.3%) were not. BHP had a terrific Friday (+5%) after Prof Bernanke goosed the banks. What happens when he wants the money back?
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A very uncertain sector at this point; the lifting $USD cannot help lift these stocks, but I suppose State Street Bank can use Mom & Pop’s pension money for whatever…
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Brazilian airline GOL had a flying week until Friday: +14.4%... then landed -3.8% on Friday after traders figured the earlier gains were a tad overstated. Lower fuel costs helped. Same for Carnival Cruiselines (CCL +6.3%) and even Disney (DIS +3.5%).
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Whole Foods… wow! … up +12.2% W/W. And speaking of pork… I josh… Brazil’s Perigao (PDA) was jumping too (+11.5%). So was their beer (ABV +7.1%). Well, so was America’s beer (BUD +6.6%). How about that Starbucks (SBUX +3.8%). Double double? I ask them that just to infuriate the wait staff. I’m from Canada, eh!
Why don’t those marketing geniuses from Starbucks just put a “Canuck double double” on the menu, and compete head on with Timmy?
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
