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May 14, 2008

Daily Report for Wed, May 14, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Despite the IEA cutting its global demand forecast, Crude Oil prices soared to a new intra-day high of 126.71/bbl, closing at 125.59, up +1.36/bbl, as Iran stated it will cut production next month. That high price is unnerving traders.

The DJIA (-44.1 -0.34% to 12832.18), S&P 500 (-0.54 -0.04% to 1403.04), and NASDAQ Composite (+6.6 +0.27% to 2495.12) closed mixed after late-session gains.

The leading sector was the Energy sector (XLE +1.6%) while the Health (XLV -1.0%) and Financial (XLF -0.9%) sectors were weak. The Banks ($BKX -2.1%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -1.8%) led the financials down. Oil Services ($OSX +2.0%) were strong.

Among the Cara 100 stocks, Yahoo (YHOO +5.1%) was strong on discussion that Carl Icahn would take a run at it. SanDisk (SNDK +4.5%) was also strong. Westpac Bank (WBK -3.0%) was weakest because of a huge take-over deal reported yesterday morning. UBS (UBS -2.6%) was also weak.

On the earnings and deal fronts, as I reported yesterday, the Wal-Mart (WMT) Q1 net income jumped +6.9% to $0.76/share, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) confirmed it will purchase Electronic Data Systems (EDS) for $13.9 billion. Freddie Mac (FRE) reported Q1 loss increased to $151 million or -$0.66/share vs -$0.35/sh a year earlier.

Wal-Mart’s forward guidance was cautionary.

Traders are now pondering the potential Carl Icahn proxy fight with Yahoo (YHOO).

On the economics front, Retail sales in April fell -0.2%, which is the second loss in 3 months, but ex-auto sales rose +0.5%, well above expectations, mostly because of the higher gasoline prices drivers were forced to pay. The Dept of Labour reported that import prices in April soared +1.8% (and a record +15.4% compared to April a year ago), on rising costs of energy, cars, and capital goods.

Today, traders will be watching the CPI data. Expectations are for a M/M increase of an unacceptably high +0.3%, with a core rate (ie, ex-food and energy) of +0.2% growth.

The US long bond ($USB was very weak ($USB -1.20% to 115.84). Yields were soaring on the 30-year ($TYX +2.2% to 4.619); 10-year ($TNX +3.6% to 3.909); 5-year ($FVX +6.3% to 3.169) and T-Bills ($IRX +2.0% to 1.785).

Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +1.36/bbl to 125.59. The June futures earlier today were a little softer at 125.09.

$GOLD yesterday lost -$15.30/oz to 869.60. The precious metals are quiet in the spot market this morning as the $USD has gained some moderate strength. Spot gold is at 868, up in the past hour from 865.

Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly strong. Shanghai (+2.7% to 3657.43), Japan Nikkei (+1.18% to 14118.55), India (+1.35% to 16978.35) and Australia (+1.0% to 5940.3) were strong. Hong Kong was flat.

In trading at mid-session in Europe, there were small losses at 8:00am ET in the FTSE and DAX, but flat in the CAC.

The June Dow 30 futures are down about -20 to 12806.


Comments & Outlook

Traders may be watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), but this is an estimate that is continually adjusted, and is never really known. Besides it is a national index which masks the serious problems in many states.

There cannot be a +140% gain in the crude oil price in about 16 months without the costs being spread throughout the economy in the form of costs of basic materials, transport, and all consumption items as well as for driving personal vehicles. With this drag on the economy, the central bankers’ solution is to throw more fuel on the fire in the form of additional money printing.

Given that energy costs will likely remain high—maybe 80 is the new 50—I think that the suburban lifestyle (ie, bedroom communities long distances from workplaces) are likely to lose favor. Urban core area developments of the kind seen in Vancouver BC are likely to become in style now. Either that, or at the beach or golf/ski resort where people work in the virtual world, like me.

Have a great day.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
YHOO 26.560 +1.300 +5.1 80.8M
SNDK 30.590 +1.320 +4.5 11.9M
ATVI 32.180 +1.280 +4.1 6M
DELL 20.000 +0.630 +3.3 30.8M
PBR 67.350 +1.650 +2.5 15.8M
CEO 184.750 +4.390 +2.4 313.1K
ABB 32.060 +0.620 +2 3.9M
CHL 84.850 +1.600 +1.9 1.5M
BC 16.810 +0.310 +1.9 905.5K
TCK 48.490 +0.700 +1.5 923.2K
VCP 32.640 +0.440 +1.4 411.7K
GRMN 43.700 +0.580 +1.3 2.2M
NTES 24.430 +0.290 +1.2 1.1M
SWK 49.760 +0.590 +1.2 1.1M
CCJ 40.480 +0.470 +1.2 2.1M
ABV 77.280 +0.780 +1 495.1K
TS 55.690 +0.510 +0.9 1.7M
MFC 37.860 +0.320 +0.9 1.1M
GGB 45.330 +0.370 +0.8 2.8M
RIO 40.910 +0.330 +0.8 14.4M
MICC 120.140 +0.950 +0.8 493.1K
ORCL 21.670 +0.160 +0.7 20.4M
PG 65.730 +0.380 +0.6 10.9M
ERTS 54.570 +0.300 +0.6 7.3M
XOM 89.680 +0.490 +0.5 21.2M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
LEH 42.950 -1.600 -3.6 17.3M
WBK 117.720 -3.610 -3 27.7K
UBS 30.790 -0.810 -2.6 3.8M
IMO 57.630 -1.400 -2.4 304.1K
WMT 56.650 -1.370 -2.4 29M
DEO 80.780 -1.740 -2.1 605.8K
CCL 39.910 -0.810 -2 2.9M
STO 37.930 -0.550 -1.4 893.1K
BBD 23.000 -0.330 -1.4 10.6M
DB 117.670 -1.650 -1.4 446.5K
BBBY 33.050 -0.460 -1.4 3.7M
NOK 28.220 -0.380 -1.3 19.2M
INFY 43.020 -0.560 -1.3 2.2M
DIS 34.330 -0.440 -1.3 11.1M
ECA 90.630 -1.100 -1.2 3.6M
HDB 106.560 -1.150 -1.1 279.5K
GG 39.020 -0.420 -1.1 5.7M
BDK 66.420 -0.700 -1 864.6K
SLW 13.830 -0.140 -1 2.7M
KSS 48.580 -0.490 -1 4.7M
GSK 43.690 -0.440 -1 1.4M
IBKR 32.670 -0.320 -1 346.9K
OXPS 21.500 -0.200 -0.9 449.6K
GS 190.330 -1.750 -0.9 5.8M
CTSH 29.920 -0.250 -0.8 5M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ATVI 32.210 32.180 +1.280 +4.14 6.04M
PBR 68.000 67.350 +1.650 +2.51 15.82M
ABB 32.170 32.060 +0.620 +1.97 3.86M
NTES 24.580 24.430 +0.290 +1.20 1.08M
GGB 45.550 45.330 +0.370 +0.82 2.83M
RIO 41.110 40.910 +0.330 +0.81 14.37M
CVX 97.980 97.730 +0.370 +0.38 10.63M
SU 128.500 127.310 +0.410 +0.32 3.17M
BHP 88.940 87.800 -0.470 -0.53 6.06M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
WFMI 33.640 -0.3 7M +170
ERTS 54.570 +0.6 7.3M +156
AMAT 19.860 -0.1 35.8M +81
SWK 49.760 +1.2 1.1M +74
WMT 56.650 -2.4 29M +50
BMY 21.600 -0.1 19.7M +48
YHOO 26.560 +5.1 80.8M +46
DELL 20.000 +3.3 30.8M +45
DOW 41.760 -0 8.2M +45
DEO 80.780 -2.1 605.8K +37
SNDK 30.590 +4.5 11.9M +37
ATVI 32.180 +4.1 6M +30
BHP 87.800 -0.5 6.1M +30
BDK 66.420 -1 864.6K +17
NKE 65.660 +0.5 3.9M +17
HBC 87.020 +0.4 1.5M +15
RIMM 140.840 -0.8 20.2M +15
KO 56.500 +0.2 10.4M +11

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ECA Blackmont --- --- Hold Buy
ECA Raymond James --- --- Outperform Strong Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
WMT Buckingham --- 52.00 Neutral Underperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
PDA UBS Securities --- --- Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT61.0990.3063.1559.19
GGB45.3389.8878.3680.40Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
PBR67.3587.4469.5775.29
ATVI32.1885.2088.4184.81Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
ECA90.6385.0976.2174.14Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
RIMM140.8484.1177.8974.56Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
RIO40.9183.8668.6163.86
SU127.3177.1573.6579.54Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
BHP87.8075.8271.6563.79
ABB32.0675.6579.5078.82Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
NKE65.6675.6052.0440.24
TT46.4874.7067.0357.52
WMT56.6574.2967.5343.69
CHRW65.0874.1773.0559.62Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-07 at $63.79, +2.02% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
NUE81.3974.0178.2966.11Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-09 at $78.41, +3.80% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PDA57.7473.7666.4663.63Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $57.80, -0.10% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
IMO58.0271.6763.5652.94
STO37.9371.0782.5061.47Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-13 at $37.93, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
COST73.9870.8174.9975.46Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
EXC83.4470.1954.8841.17
NTES24.4370.1180.1678.94Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
CVX97.7369.6280.4270.29
LLTC36.5467.1584.9072.59
MICC120.1466.4967.0870.63
TOT84.5663.4473.6264.64
DOW41.7657.6070.0978.00
ERTS54.5757.4666.5478.76
ADBE40.5955.4069.2070.36
CCJ40.4851.1662.8179.29
SNDK30.5940.4068.3077.81
DELL20.0035.4351.8873.23

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX15.9512.8727.8437.19
UBS30.7925.7236.1727.34
GRMN43.7032.0927.5050.43
KO56.5049.8029.3421.99


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AA 42.12 0.51 1.23% 10.84% 21.56% 20.90% 16.58% 18.61% 14.99% 10.75%
IBM 126.58 1.34 1.07% 3.06% 3.04% 8.03% 20.91% 16.75% 20.24% 19.44%
DIS 34.33 -0.44 -1.27% 1.78% 4.79% 14.70% 7.82% 4.73% 4.00% -4.82%
MCD 61.17 0.30 0.49% 1.12% 1.61% 9.31% 5.28% 8.00% 7.13% 20.77%
CAT 84.07 0.25 0.30% 1.01% 3.14% 10.69% 19.03% 17.33% 18.29% 12.27%
CVX 97.73 0.37 0.38% 0.89% 3.16% 8.38% 4.57% 19.01% 12.55% 22.10%
MRK 39.17 -0.45 -1.14% 0.85% 5.47% -4.97% -31.72% -17.66% -31.87% -24.67%
INTC 23.76 0.12 0.51% 0.76% 5.04% 13.63% -6.27% 12.02% -9.10% 6.64%
WMT 56.65 -1.37 -2.36% 0.53% -3.34% 0.68% 20.79% 11.82% 23.23% 18.56%
UTX 74.92 0.35 0.47% 0.32% 2.48% 5.76% -0.39% 1.90% -0.54% 9.55%
MSFT 29.78 -0.21 -0.70% 0.27% 3.98% 5.42% -15.45% 2.83% -13.58% -3.59%
XOM 89.68 0.49 0.55% -0.43% -2.30% -1.23% -4.10% 4.90% 3.22% 10.40%
MMM 77.18 -0.49 -0.63% -0.75% 0.42% -2.11% -6.69% -5.16% -4.99% -9.78%
T 39.26 0.15 0.38% -0.76% 1.74% 5.17% -4.24% 1.53% -1.48% -0.83%
BA 85.08 0.28 0.33% -1.24% -0.53% 12.39% -1.78% -0.47% -9.20% -8.91%
DD 49.01 -0.57 -1.15% -1.29% 0.70% 0.16% 12.05% 5.04% 6.31% -2.80%
PG 65.73 0.38 0.58% -1.38% -0.26% -6.41% -9.10% -1.90% -8.16% 6.62%
JNJ 66.41 -0.30 -0.45% -1.73% -1.16% 1.16% 0.76% 4.73% -1.34% 6.65%
HD 28.75 0.11 0.38% -1.81% -2.08% 2.94% 10.11% 1.45% -1.27% -26.02%
VZ 38.11 0.05 0.13% -2.01% -0.26% 8.54% -11.80% -1.42% -12.55% -7.84%
GE 32.33 -0.07 -0.22% -2.03% -1.49% 1.09% -12.05% -7.58% -17.55% -12.55%
PFE 19.97 0.06 0.30% -2.20% -1.33% -3.57% -12.83% -12.18% -15.20% -26.15%
KO 56.50 0.10 0.18% -3.04% -3.78% -7.29% -7.51% -4.87% -7.44% 7.23%
AXP 49.01 -0.94 -1.88% -3.83% 2.08% 13.58% -3.98% 4.61% -17.16% -22.17%
JPM 45.48 -1.76 -3.73% -5.64% -3.40% 7.98% 7.85% 3.13% 0.95% -12.79%
BAC 36.61 -0.83 -2.22% -6.70% -3.30% 2.89% -9.74% -15.51% -20.88% -28.15%
HPQ 44.27 -2.38 -5.10% -8.98% -7.46% -3.38% -11.12% 0.50% -10.57% -2.14%
GM 20.20 -0.56 -2.70% -9.58% -4.72% 5.65% -17.25% -23.66% -36.12% -31.43%
C 23.03 -0.61 -2.58% -10.98% -12.50% 1.01% -20.37% -12.57% -35.85% -56.64%
AIG 39.16 0.79 2.06% -19.09% -16.68% -11.22% -30.44% -13.97% -33.83% -46.05%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.