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May 14, 2008
Daily Report for Wed, May 14, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Despite the IEA cutting its global demand forecast, Crude Oil prices soared to a new intra-day high of 126.71/bbl, closing at 125.59, up +1.36/bbl, as Iran stated it will cut production next month. That high price is unnerving traders.
The DJIA (-44.1 -0.34% to 12832.18), S&P 500 (-0.54 -0.04% to 1403.04), and NASDAQ Composite (+6.6 +0.27% to 2495.12) closed mixed after late-session gains.
The leading sector was the Energy sector (XLE +1.6%) while the Health (XLV -1.0%) and Financial (XLF -0.9%) sectors were weak. The Banks ($BKX -2.1%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -1.8%) led the financials down. Oil Services ($OSX +2.0%) were strong.
Among the Cara 100 stocks, Yahoo (YHOO +5.1%) was strong on discussion that Carl Icahn would take a run at it. SanDisk (SNDK +4.5%) was also strong. Westpac Bank (WBK -3.0%) was weakest because of a huge take-over deal reported yesterday morning. UBS (UBS -2.6%) was also weak.
On the earnings and deal fronts, as I reported yesterday, the Wal-Mart (WMT) Q1 net income jumped +6.9% to $0.76/share, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) confirmed it will purchase Electronic Data Systems (EDS) for $13.9 billion. Freddie Mac (FRE) reported Q1 loss increased to $151 million or -$0.66/share vs -$0.35/sh a year earlier.
Wal-Mart’s forward guidance was cautionary.
Traders are now pondering the potential Carl Icahn proxy fight with Yahoo (YHOO).
On the economics front, Retail sales in April fell -0.2%, which is the second loss in 3 months, but ex-auto sales rose +0.5%, well above expectations, mostly because of the higher gasoline prices drivers were forced to pay. The Dept of Labour reported that import prices in April soared +1.8% (and a record +15.4% compared to April a year ago), on rising costs of energy, cars, and capital goods.
Today, traders will be watching the CPI data. Expectations are for a M/M increase of an unacceptably high +0.3%, with a core rate (ie, ex-food and energy) of +0.2% growth.
The US long bond ($USB was very weak ($USB -1.20% to 115.84). Yields were soaring on the 30-year ($TYX +2.2% to 4.619); 10-year ($TNX +3.6% to 3.909); 5-year ($FVX +6.3% to 3.169) and T-Bills ($IRX +2.0% to 1.785).
Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +1.36/bbl to 125.59. The June futures earlier today were a little softer at 125.09.
$GOLD yesterday lost -$15.30/oz to 869.60. The precious metals are quiet in the spot market this morning as the $USD has gained some moderate strength. Spot gold is at 868, up in the past hour from 865.
Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly strong. Shanghai (+2.7% to 3657.43), Japan Nikkei (+1.18% to 14118.55), India (+1.35% to 16978.35) and Australia (+1.0% to 5940.3) were strong. Hong Kong was flat.
In trading at mid-session in Europe, there were small losses at 8:00am ET in the FTSE and DAX, but flat in the CAC.
The June Dow 30 futures are down about -20 to 12806.
Comments & Outlook
Traders may be watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), but this is an estimate that is continually adjusted, and is never really known. Besides it is a national index which masks the serious problems in many states.
There cannot be a +140% gain in the crude oil price in about 16 months without the costs being spread throughout the economy in the form of costs of basic materials, transport, and all consumption items as well as for driving personal vehicles. With this drag on the economy, the central bankers’ solution is to throw more fuel on the fire in the form of additional money printing.
Given that energy costs will likely remain high—maybe 80 is the new 50—I think that the suburban lifestyle (ie, bedroom communities long distances from workplaces) are likely to lose favor. Urban core area developments of the kind seen in Vancouver BC are likely to become in style now. Either that, or at the beach or golf/ski resort where people work in the virtual world, like me.
Have a great day.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| YHOO | 26.560 | +1.300 | +5.1 | 80.8M |
| SNDK | 30.590 | +1.320 | +4.5 | 11.9M |
| ATVI | 32.180 | +1.280 | +4.1 | 6M |
| DELL | 20.000 | +0.630 | +3.3 | 30.8M |
| PBR | 67.350 | +1.650 | +2.5 | 15.8M |
| CEO | 184.750 | +4.390 | +2.4 | 313.1K |
| ABB | 32.060 | +0.620 | +2 | 3.9M |
| CHL | 84.850 | +1.600 | +1.9 | 1.5M |
| BC | 16.810 | +0.310 | +1.9 | 905.5K |
| TCK | 48.490 | +0.700 | +1.5 | 923.2K |
| VCP | 32.640 | +0.440 | +1.4 | 411.7K |
| GRMN | 43.700 | +0.580 | +1.3 | 2.2M |
| NTES | 24.430 | +0.290 | +1.2 | 1.1M |
| SWK | 49.760 | +0.590 | +1.2 | 1.1M |
| CCJ | 40.480 | +0.470 | +1.2 | 2.1M |
| ABV | 77.280 | +0.780 | +1 | 495.1K |
| TS | 55.690 | +0.510 | +0.9 | 1.7M |
| MFC | 37.860 | +0.320 | +0.9 | 1.1M |
| GGB | 45.330 | +0.370 | +0.8 | 2.8M |
| RIO | 40.910 | +0.330 | +0.8 | 14.4M |
| MICC | 120.140 | +0.950 | +0.8 | 493.1K |
| ORCL | 21.670 | +0.160 | +0.7 | 20.4M |
| PG | 65.730 | +0.380 | +0.6 | 10.9M |
| ERTS | 54.570 | +0.300 | +0.6 | 7.3M |
| XOM | 89.680 | +0.490 | +0.5 | 21.2M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| LEH | 42.950 | -1.600 | -3.6 | 17.3M |
| WBK | 117.720 | -3.610 | -3 | 27.7K |
| UBS | 30.790 | -0.810 | -2.6 | 3.8M |
| IMO | 57.630 | -1.400 | -2.4 | 304.1K |
| WMT | 56.650 | -1.370 | -2.4 | 29M |
| DEO | 80.780 | -1.740 | -2.1 | 605.8K |
| CCL | 39.910 | -0.810 | -2 | 2.9M |
| STO | 37.930 | -0.550 | -1.4 | 893.1K |
| BBD | 23.000 | -0.330 | -1.4 | 10.6M |
| DB | 117.670 | -1.650 | -1.4 | 446.5K |
| BBBY | 33.050 | -0.460 | -1.4 | 3.7M |
| NOK | 28.220 | -0.380 | -1.3 | 19.2M |
| INFY | 43.020 | -0.560 | -1.3 | 2.2M |
| DIS | 34.330 | -0.440 | -1.3 | 11.1M |
| ECA | 90.630 | -1.100 | -1.2 | 3.6M |
| HDB | 106.560 | -1.150 | -1.1 | 279.5K |
| GG | 39.020 | -0.420 | -1.1 | 5.7M |
| BDK | 66.420 | -0.700 | -1 | 864.6K |
| SLW | 13.830 | -0.140 | -1 | 2.7M |
| KSS | 48.580 | -0.490 | -1 | 4.7M |
| GSK | 43.690 | -0.440 | -1 | 1.4M |
| IBKR | 32.670 | -0.320 | -1 | 346.9K |
| OXPS | 21.500 | -0.200 | -0.9 | 449.6K |
| GS | 190.330 | -1.750 | -0.9 | 5.8M |
| CTSH | 29.920 | -0.250 | -0.8 | 5M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| ATVI | 32.210 | 32.180 | +1.280 | +4.14 | 6.04M |
| PBR | 68.000 | 67.350 | +1.650 | +2.51 | 15.82M |
| ABB | 32.170 | 32.060 | +0.620 | +1.97 | 3.86M |
| NTES | 24.580 | 24.430 | +0.290 | +1.20 | 1.08M |
| GGB | 45.550 | 45.330 | +0.370 | +0.82 | 2.83M |
| RIO | 41.110 | 40.910 | +0.330 | +0.81 | 14.37M |
| CVX | 97.980 | 97.730 | +0.370 | +0.38 | 10.63M |
| SU | 128.500 | 127.310 | +0.410 | +0.32 | 3.17M |
| BHP | 88.940 | 87.800 | -0.470 | -0.53 | 6.06M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| WFMI | 33.640 | -0.3 | 7M | +170 |
| ERTS | 54.570 | +0.6 | 7.3M | +156 |
| AMAT | 19.860 | -0.1 | 35.8M | +81 |
| SWK | 49.760 | +1.2 | 1.1M | +74 |
| WMT | 56.650 | -2.4 | 29M | +50 |
| BMY | 21.600 | -0.1 | 19.7M | +48 |
| YHOO | 26.560 | +5.1 | 80.8M | +46 |
| DELL | 20.000 | +3.3 | 30.8M | +45 |
| DOW | 41.760 | -0 | 8.2M | +45 |
| DEO | 80.780 | -2.1 | 605.8K | +37 |
| SNDK | 30.590 | +4.5 | 11.9M | +37 |
| ATVI | 32.180 | +4.1 | 6M | +30 |
| BHP | 87.800 | -0.5 | 6.1M | +30 |
| BDK | 66.420 | -1 | 864.6K | +17 |
| NKE | 65.660 | +0.5 | 3.9M | +17 |
| HBC | 87.020 | +0.4 | 1.5M | +15 |
| RIMM | 140.840 | -0.8 | 20.2M | +15 |
| KO | 56.500 | +0.2 | 10.4M | +11 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| ECA | Blackmont | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Buy |
| ECA | Raymond James | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Strong Buy |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| WMT | Buckingham | --- |
|
52.00 | Neutral |
|
Underperform |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| PDA | UBS Securities | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYT | 61.09 | 90.30 | 63.15 | 59.19 | |
| GGB | 45.33 | 89.88 | 78.36 | 80.40 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| PBR | 67.35 | 87.44 | 69.57 | 75.29 | |
| ATVI | 32.18 | 85.20 | 88.41 | 84.81 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| ECA | 90.63 | 85.09 | 76.21 | 74.14 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| RIMM | 140.84 | 84.11 | 77.89 | 74.56 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| RIO | 40.91 | 83.86 | 68.61 | 63.86 | |
| SU | 127.31 | 77.15 | 73.65 | 79.54 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| BHP | 87.80 | 75.82 | 71.65 | 63.79 | |
| ABB | 32.06 | 75.65 | 79.50 | 78.82 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| NKE | 65.66 | 75.60 | 52.04 | 40.24 | |
| TT | 46.48 | 74.70 | 67.03 | 57.52 | |
| WMT | 56.65 | 74.29 | 67.53 | 43.69 | |
| CHRW | 65.08 | 74.17 | 73.05 | 59.62 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-07 at $63.79, +2.02% chg], after a 4 day DZ) |
| NUE | 81.39 | 74.01 | 78.29 | 66.11 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-09 at $78.41, +3.80% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| PDA | 57.74 | 73.76 | 66.46 | 63.63 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $57.80, -0.10% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| IMO | 58.02 | 71.67 | 63.56 | 52.94 | |
| STO | 37.93 | 71.07 | 82.50 | 61.47 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-13 at $37.93, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| COST | 73.98 | 70.81 | 74.99 | 75.46 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| EXC | 83.44 | 70.19 | 54.88 | 41.17 | |
| NTES | 24.43 | 70.11 | 80.16 | 78.94 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| CVX | 97.73 | 69.62 | 80.42 | 70.29 | |
| LLTC | 36.54 | 67.15 | 84.90 | 72.59 | |
| MICC | 120.14 | 66.49 | 67.08 | 70.63 | |
| TOT | 84.56 | 63.44 | 73.62 | 64.64 | |
| DOW | 41.76 | 57.60 | 70.09 | 78.00 | |
| ERTS | 54.57 | 57.46 | 66.54 | 78.76 | |
| ADBE | 40.59 | 55.40 | 69.20 | 70.36 | |
| CCJ | 40.48 | 51.16 | 62.81 | 79.29 | |
| SNDK | 30.59 | 40.40 | 68.30 | 77.81 | |
| DELL | 20.00 | 35.43 | 51.88 | 73.23 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 15.95 | 12.87 | 27.84 | 37.19 | |
| UBS | 30.79 | 25.72 | 36.17 | 27.34 | |
| GRMN | 43.70 | 32.09 | 27.50 | 50.43 | |
| KO | 56.50 | 49.80 | 29.34 | 21.99 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
