« Bill Cara's Community Chat, Mon., May 19, 2008, 8:59am ET | Main | Bill Cara's Community Chat, Tues., May 20, 2008, 8:18am ET »
May 20, 2008
Daily Report for Tues, May 20, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Equity prices began Monday with some zip, but the pressure caused by record-setting oil prices later in the session sent the DJIA (+41.36 +0.32% to 13028.16) and S&P 500 (+1.28 +0.09% to 1426.63) floundering, while the NASDAQ Composite (-12.76 -0.50% to 2516.09) closed the day underwater.
The Financials (XLF -0.95%) and Basic Materials (XLB -0.26%) led the afternoon sell-off. In the financials, the Broker-Dealers ($XBD -1.3%) were weakest. The Airlines ($XAL -3.0%) were pressured by the record price for oil. That oil price also hurt the Chemicals stocks.
The Oil stocks ($XOI +1.0%) were strong, as expected on this day. The strongest sectors were Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI), both up +1.1% on the session.
For the Cara 100 stocks, there were 16 that hit intra-day 52-week highs. At the close, the winners were MBT +5.6%; ORCL +3.5%; VIP +3.5%; and TM +3.3%. The losers were: SNDK -7.5%; NTES -6.2%; GRMN -5.3%; and BBBY -3.3%.
On the earnings front, Lowe's (LOW) suffered a -18% drop in Q1 net income, and guided its 2008 outlook lower as the home improvement industry is suffering badly from the housing and energy crisis. Earlier this morning, Home Depot (HD) reported a -66% plunge in Q1 earnings due largely to a one-time charge, and the results were as anticipated.
On the economics front, the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for April met expectations, lifting +0.1%.
The Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.5% today.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) yesterday hit another all-time record close of 126.95, up +$0.91/bbl. There have been reported promised hikes in oil production by the Saudis, but these results take time. In the near term, prices are put under pressure by analysts who are concerned that the oil companies are not creating sufficient new refinery capacity, which is keeping their margins high at the same time these companies are building reserves in preparation for the anticipated drawdowns during the next economic expansion.
Then, of course, there are speculators who are taking into consideration the probabilities of increased military and rebel action in and near the oil producing countries. Inflation creates insufferable human conditions for many people, which leads to increased violence and continuation of wars.
These economic drivers are pushing down against the price of the US Dollar, making conditions difficult for central bankers to effectively control.
Yesterday there was a small gain of +0.30% in the trade-weighted $USD, closing at 73.04. The Euro dropped -0.57% to 1.5505; the Yen by -0.26% to 95.90; and the British Pound -0.47% to 1.9482. The Canadian Dollar lifted +0.86% to 100.82, spurred by higher oil and metals prices.
Treasury yields edged lower but not by much. The 30-year long bond ($USB) gained +0.13% to 116.61.
This morning, the equity markets in Asia-Pacific have suffered large losses and in Europe in mid-session are suffering large losses. Inflation pressures (mostly oil and food) and problems with the banks seem to be at the root of the selling.
The precious metals spot prices at 8:00am are off a bit from the same time yesterday (in brackets): gold 906.56 (907.20); palladium 439 (444); platinum 2132 (2163); and silver 17.01 (17.14).
The near futures for Oil, the Euro and the DJIA are (with yesterday morning’s prices in brackets): 126.68 (127.02); 1.5626 (1.5556); and 12992 (12983). The DJIA futures have sunk -53 since midnight.
Comments & Outlook
The oil price is at record highs. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has cycled back up to 94.36, providing another in a continuous series of short-selling opportunities. The long-term price chart shows the upper level resistance going back to July 2007.
On signs of a break-out above $96.00, or collapse of the $USD, I’d cover shorts and await the next opportunity to put on another short trade.
One of the reasons why I am not bullish on the broad equity market is that the banks have not been transparent as to their losses and the provisions for loss ought to have been write-offs in many cases, which would have required them to seek even more replacement capital. I believe that there have been humungous losses that will soon come to light, and that will spur lawsuits of a significant number and magnitude.
Today comes to light one of those lawsuits between ex-Cara 100 banks Fifth Third and Citigroup. There will be many more of these suits as management is pressed by shareholders to explain their losses. The lawsuits hit at the reality of the management practices within banks that the public never hears about. Makes sobering reading because these bankers are supposed to be your advisors.
Moreover, as the 2002-2007 Bull market was extended there was vicious competition to outperform one’s peer group in the financial sector and the excesses that occurred also resulted in humungous errors in judgment by senior executives. Many situations are now being found to have been so egregious as to lead, in many cases, to criminal prosecution of big name executives.
The lesson here is that greed prevails in a Bull market, and like price speculation becomes excessive in extended Bull markets, so too does bad management practices. A Bear market reverses the trend and once again grounds the players in reality. Prison sentences, massive fines and penalties, and lawsuits, tend to happen in Bear markets, and we are just now beginning to see these hit the radar in a significant way.
The positive side to this is that during the unwinding process market prices revert to a point where new investment at sustainable levels can find value.
Have a great day.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| MBT | 84.720 | +4.470 | +5.6 | 3.3M |
| ORCL | 22.430 | +0.750 | +3.5 | 41.2M |
| VIP | 34.750 | +1.160 | +3.5 | 7.1M |
| TM | 105.210 | +3.340 | +3.3 | 592K |
| CCJ | 42.880 | +1.330 | +3.2 | 3.5M |
| SU | 138.420 | +3.600 | +2.7 | 3.2M |
| BA | 87.070 | +1.900 | +2.2 | 7.2M |
| CHRW | 65.570 | +1.420 | +2.2 | 2M |
| IMO | 58.320 | +1.250 | +2.2 | 133.3K |
| PBR | 72.190 | +1.540 | +2.2 | 16.3M |
| CEO | 196.020 | +3.940 | +2.1 | 402.7K |
| TS | 60.350 | +1.200 | +2 | 4.2M |
| XOM | 94.360 | +1.690 | +1.8 | 24.8M |
| CVX | 102.200 | +1.820 | +1.8 | 12.8M |
| ABX | 40.920 | +0.720 | +1.8 | 9.8M |
| GGB | 49.720 | +0.850 | +1.7 | 3.4M |
| TOT | 89.770 | +1.520 | +1.7 | 2.1M |
| NOK | 29.660 | +0.490 | +1.7 | 15.7M |
| EXC | 86.180 | +1.120 | +1.3 | 3.1M |
| KB | 64.550 | +0.750 | +1.2 | 409.9K |
| HDB | 109.260 | +1.210 | +1.1 | 416.4K |
| ECA | 95.150 | +1.050 | +1.1 | 2.2M |
| GSK | 44.920 | +0.460 | +1 | 855K |
| QCOM | 47.350 | +0.450 | +1 | 28.8M |
| CCL | 40.000 | +0.350 | +0.9 | 4.1M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| SNDK | 30.020 | -2.420 | -7.5 | 15.9M |
| NTES | 23.410 | -1.550 | -6.2 | 2.8M |
| GRMN | 47.350 | -2.670 | -5.3 | 4.5M |
| BBBY | 32.680 | -1.100 | -3.3 | 5M |
| PDA | 59.940 | -1.810 | -2.9 | 182.5K |
| ERTS | 48.430 | -1.170 | -2.4 | 6.4M |
| ABV | 76.710 | -1.840 | -2.3 | 1.3M |
| JCP | 43.960 | -1.050 | -2.3 | 4.2M |
| CHA | 70.670 | -1.680 | -2.3 | 214.9K |
| KSS | 48.130 | -1.140 | -2.3 | 4.7M |
| GOL | 16.150 | -0.360 | -2.2 | 623.6K |
| LEH | 42.790 | -0.850 | -1.9 | 15M |
| RIMM | 137.630 | -2.730 | -1.9 | 14M |
| MFC | 38.190 | -0.730 | -1.9 | 1M |
| TGP | 29.070 | -0.540 | -1.8 | 223.6K |
| BHP | 93.490 | -1.510 | -1.6 | 3.7M |
| COST | 72.110 | -1.160 | -1.6 | 4M |
| GS | 184.400 | -2.740 | -1.5 | 7M |
| DEO | 79.970 | -1.030 | -1.3 | 1.3M |
| VCP | 32.390 | -0.410 | -1.2 | 469.7K |
| TEF | 88.210 | -1.090 | -1.2 | 248.3K |
| UBS | 30.400 | -0.370 | -1.2 | 3.4M |
| BC | 16.530 | -0.200 | -1.2 | 1M |
| OXPS | 22.750 | -0.260 | -1.1 | 807.5K |
| WMT | 56.400 | -0.640 | -1.1 | 15.4M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| SU | 139.900 | 138.420 | +3.600 | +2.67 | 3.21M |
| PBR | 72.910 | 72.190 | +1.540 | +2.18 | 16.26M |
| TS | 61.120 | 60.350 | +1.200 | +2.03 | 4.16M |
| CVX | 102.810 | 102.200 | +1.820 | +1.81 | 12.78M |
| GGB | 50.650 | 49.720 | +0.850 | +1.74 | 3.38M |
| TOT | 90.710 | 89.770 | +1.520 | +1.72 | 2.13M |
| ECA | 95.720 | 95.150 | +1.050 | +1.12 | 2.25M |
| QCOM | 48.360 | 47.350 | +0.450 | +0.96 | 28.81M |
| STO | 42.300 | 42.000 | +0.320 | +0.77 | 1.12M |
| ABB | 33.390 | 32.940 | +0.250 | +0.76 | 4.29M |
| TT | 47.020 | 46.920 | +0.130 | +0.28 | 1.63M |
| NUE | 83.560 | 81.320 | -0.750 | -0.91 | 4.52M |
| RIO | 44.150 | 43.460 | -0.450 | -1.02 | 21.68M |
| BHP | 95.610 | 93.490 | -1.510 | -1.59 | 3.74M |
| PDA | 63.800 | 59.940 | -1.810 | -2.93 | 182.49K |
| NTES | 25.700 | 23.410 | -1.550 | -6.21 | 2.80M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| VIP | 34.750 | +3.5 | 7.1M | +149 |
| DEO | 79.970 | -1.3 | 1.3M | +136 |
| NTES | 23.410 | -6.2 | 2.8M | +128 |
| TS | 60.350 | +2 | 4.2M | +119 |
| MBT | 84.720 | +5.6 | 3.3M | +114 |
| QCOM | 47.350 | +1 | 28.8M | +89 |
| SNDK | 30.020 | -7.5 | 15.9M | +86 |
| ERTS | 48.430 | -2.4 | 6.4M | +67 |
| WBK | 119.090 | +0.3 | 47.6K | +58 |
| ABV | 76.710 | -2.3 | 1.3M | +54 |
| CCJ | 42.880 | +3.2 | 3.5M | +47 |
| GE | 32.400 | +0.8 | 57.6M | +43 |
| ORCL | 22.430 | +3.5 | 41.2M | +41 |
| ADBE | 42.600 | +0.8 | 7.2M | +29 |
| BA | 87.070 | +2.2 | 7.2M | +25 |
| TOT | 89.770 | +1.7 | 2.1M | +23 |
| INTC | 24.880 | -0.5 | 61.1M | +18 |
| TM | 105.210 | +3.3 | 592K | +15 |
| GGB | 49.720 | +1.7 | 3.4M | +15 |
| DELL | 21.200 | -0.5 | 25.5M | +14 |
| OXPS | 22.750 | -1.1 | 807.5K | +13 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| YHOO | Needham | --- |
|
31.00 | Hold |
|
Buy |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| DELL | First Global | --- |
|
--- | Market Perform |
|
Outperform |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| GRMN | Needham | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
| DIS | Pali Capital | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| SNDK | JMP Sec | --- |
|
--- | Mkt Perform |
|
Mkt Underperform |
| VCP | Deutsche Bank | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
| JCP | Goldman Sachs | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
| NUE | CIBC | --- |
|
--- | Sector Perform |
|
Sector Underperform |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GGB | 49.72 | 87.06 | 84.64 | 84.72 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| ATVI | 32.91 | 86.78 | 87.96 | 78.27 | Distribution Zone (for 7 days) |
| ECA | 95.15 | 85.16 | 77.94 | 82.56 | Distribution Zone (for 6 days) |
| WMT | 56.40 | 82.96 | 67.83 | 42.77 | |
| RIMM | 137.63 | 81.31 | 70.64 | 58.20 | Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-16 at $140.36, -1.94% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| PDA | 59.94 | 80.91 | 71.49 | 63.31 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-19 at $59.94, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| SYT | 60.69 | 80.70 | 59.43 | 50.24 | |
| SU | 138.42 | 79.91 | 81.49 | 87.22 | Distribution Zone (for 8 days) |
| ABB | 32.94 | 79.08 | 81.78 | 85.72 | Distribution Zone (for 6 days) |
| GG | 41.26 | 77.58 | 58.44 | 70.67 | |
| PBR | 72.19 | 77.09 | 77.23 | 82.48 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| BBD | 23.50 | 77.05 | 66.36 | 61.16 | |
| RIO | 43.46 | 76.94 | 76.70 | 71.84 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| NUE | 81.32 | 74.69 | 78.94 | 60.78 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-09 at $78.41, +3.71% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| CHRW | 65.57 | 74.14 | 72.52 | 59.28 | |
| STO | 42.00 | 73.99 | 89.85 | 84.08 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| TT | 46.92 | 73.28 | 74.77 | 78.19 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| COST | 72.11 | 72.51 | 66.69 | 46.54 | Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-16 at $73.27, -1.58% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| CVX | 102.20 | 72.24 | 86.15 | 88.03 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| NKE | 67.78 | 72.06 | 60.02 | 59.63 | |
| TS | 60.35 | 71.87 | 77.25 | 83.92 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| TOT | 89.77 | 71.85 | 81.50 | 86.59 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| EXC | 86.18 | 71.43 | 69.43 | 66.07 | |
| BHP | 93.49 | 70.79 | 81.72 | 70.75 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| CEO | 196.02 | 69.10 | 74.29 | 79.70 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-19 at $196.02, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| QCOM | 47.35 | 67.41 | 81.24 | 79.34 | |
| LLTC | 37.17 | 67.40 | 80.95 | 78.38 | |
| ORCL | 22.43 | 66.99 | 69.83 | 71.65 | |
| MBT | 84.72 | 66.65 | 61.55 | 79.75 | |
| TCK | 51.73 | 66.62 | 74.05 | 81.13 | |
| VIP | 34.75 | 65.67 | 63.65 | 79.69 | |
| XOM | 94.36 | 64.43 | 66.65 | 78.69 | |
| ADBE | 42.60 | 61.70 | 77.56 | 83.56 | |
| INTC | 24.88 | 60.88 | 72.91 | 79.00 | |
| DIS | 34.72 | 60.08 | 71.38 | 64.33 | |
| HBC | 86.88 | 58.44 | 71.85 | 55.62 | |
| CCJ | 42.88 | 57.75 | 67.92 | 79.37 | |
| DOW | 42.54 | 56.99 | 75.56 | 74.17 | |
| BA | 87.07 | 52.82 | 69.25 | 75.20 | |
| DELL | 21.20 | 39.89 | 61.89 | 82.27 | |
| SBUX | 17.07 | 17.24 | 46.24 | 71.54 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 17.07 | 17.24 | 46.24 | 71.54 | |
| BC | 16.53 | 27.51 | 48.78 | 48.81 | |
| WFMI | 28.85 | 28.81 | 31.00 | 22.68 | |
| UBS | 30.40 | 29.56 | 34.83 | 27.47 | |
| ERTS | 48.43 | 41.86 | 40.48 | 22.74 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields



































