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May 6, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, May 06, 2008

Markets Re-cap

On Monday, despite some positive macroeconomic news, the broad market trended lower because of soaring commodity prices.

The DJIA (-89 -0.68% to 12970), S&P 500 (-6 -0.45% to 1407), and NASDAQ Composite (-13 -0.52% to 2464) started the week off well for the Bears.

The US ISM Services Index was reported at 52.0, well above the 49.8 consensus. I suspect 1-800-HELP is helping the retailers and their bankers that it was intended for. Failing retailers also foreclose or walk away from stores.

But Crude Oil hit a high of $120.36, closing at $119.97, up +3.65/bbl, and the price of gasoline jumped 7c/gal, putting pressure on the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY -1.1%) and the Retailer ($RLX -2.4%) and Airline ($XAL -2.6%) industries.

Worst hit were the Financials (XLF -1.7%) and Utilities (XLU -1.4%), whereas the Energy producers (XLE +1.5%) and Basic Material producers (XLB +2.3%) were strong.

For the Cara 100, commodity price sensitive diversified metal miner Teck (TCK +5.5%), goldminer Barrick (ABX +3.6%) and steelmaker Nucor (NUE +3.4%) were strong, while consumer product makers and sellers like Whirlpool (WHR -2.5%), JC Penny (JCP -4.1%) and Kohls (KSS -3.8%) were weak.

The US long bond ($USB was flat ($USB -0.09%) at $116.12. The T-Bill yield lifted +5.8% to 1.55.

With all the Fed pumping, the US Dollar weakened ($USD -0.47%) to 73.19. The Euro (+0.40%), Yen (+0.46%) and Cdn Loonie (+0.54%) were stronger, lifting commodity prices and also being lifted by rising commodity prices.

Asia-Pacific equity markets were a bit soft overnight, but nothing remarkable. The European bourses this morning are weaker, down -0.78% to 6167 for the UK FTSE index, and a tad weaker for the French and German markets.

Spot prices for precious metals are a little stronger due to this morning’s weakness in the $USD, down about a quarter of 1 percent. Crude oil futures (June) are at 119.67, a bit softer, while the DJIA June equity futures are down -65 to 12904.


Comments & Outlook

While I enjoy a few days of rest and relaxation, I am purposefully staying away from the market and the blog as much as possible. I am accomplishing much at the same time.

Have a great day. Prices of equities are likely to back off as long as commodity prices continue to set records. But stock prices remain far too high relative to risk.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
TCK 46.050 +2.420 +5.5 1.2M
ABX 38.910 +1.350 +3.6 8.5M
NUE 76.850 +2.550 +3.4 3.8M
SU 114.990 +3.450 +3.1 2.5M
SLW 13.640 +0.370 +2.8 4.7M
ECA 80.950 +2.090 +2.7 2.2M
GOL 17.590 +0.430 +2.5 931K
GOOG 594.900 +13.610 +2.3 6.3M
GG 36.680 +0.790 +2.2 7.7M
SNDK 29.780 +0.590 +2 9.4M
AET 43.830 +0.840 +2 2.7M
CCJ 35.580 +0.630 +1.8 2.1M
TS 54.870 +0.960 +1.8 1.3M
NTES 23.660 +0.400 +1.7 1M
PBR 126.540 +2.120 +1.7 7.3M
BBBY 33.550 +0.450 +1.4 5.6M
IBKR 32.240 +0.390 +1.2 1.4M
BHP 84.930 +0.930 +1.1 4.9M
RIO 40.310 +0.400 +1 18.1M
RIMM 133.180 +1.260 +1 15.2M
DNA 67.790 +0.550 +0.8 4M
DB 121.800 +0.820 +0.7 473.7K
GGB 42.070 +0.280 +0.7 1.8M
TGP 28.790 +0.190 +0.7 196.5K
TEF 89.440 +0.490 +0.6 237.7K

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
YHOO 24.370 -4.300 -15 279M
JCP 43.320 -1.860 -4.1 3.9M
KSS 48.200 -1.910 -3.8 6.5M
LEH 45.800 -1.220 -2.6 12.2M
WHR 73.680 -1.920 -2.5 1.4M
VCP 30.710 -0.780 -2.5 671.5K
CCL 40.970 -0.970 -2.3 2.7M
WFMI 34.190 -0.790 -2.3 1.8M
RY 48.120 -1.000 -2 896.4K
ERTS 52.090 -1.080 -2 1.6M
CHA 68.520 -1.360 -1.9 267K
MFC 38.820 -0.730 -1.8 690.1K
CHL 86.590 -1.550 -1.8 2.1M
CSCO 26.280 -0.470 -1.8 62.2M
PAYX 36.520 -0.590 -1.6 1.5M
GS 197.120 -3.150 -1.6 6.4M
GRMN 42.110 -0.660 -1.5 2.9M
IBN 46.230 -0.670 -1.4 1.4M
UBS 34.310 -0.490 -1.4 4.1M
INTC 23.250 -0.330 -1.4 38.6M
VIP 29.980 -0.420 -1.4 1.2M
EXC 84.890 -1.170 -1.4 2.6M
MBT 74.130 -1.020 -1.4 2.4M
TGT 53.190 -0.720 -1.3 9.7M
INFY 44.360 -0.580 -1.3 1.3M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
RIO 40.600 40.310 +0.400 +1.00 18.11M
STO 37.190 37.070 +0.000 +0.00 825.03K

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
YHOO 24.370 -15 279M +872
IBKR 32.240 +1.2 1.4M +76
IMO 55.080 -0.6 550.5K +43
VCP 30.710 -2.5 671.5K +41
RY 48.120 -2 896.4K +35
NTES 23.660 +1.7 1M +30
MBT 74.130 -1.4 2.4M +29
SLW 13.640 +2.8 4.7M +28
CSCO 26.280 -1.8 62.2M +23
PDA 58.650 -0.3 208.2K +19
KSS 48.200 -3.8 6.5M +13

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
TCK Salman Partners --- --- Hold Buy
ECA Raymond James --- --- Mkt Perform Outperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Canaccord Adams --- 21.00 Hold Sell
YHOO Collins Stewart --- 23.00 Hold Sell
YHOO Smith Barney 34.00 26.00 Buy Sell
YHOO ThinkPanmure --- 20.00 Accumulate Sell
YHOO Soleil --- 22.00 Hold Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
STO ING Barings --- --- Hold Sell
IMO Merrill Lynch --- --- Neutral Sell


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
GGB42.0784.7475.9176.65Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
PBR126.5484.0965.0664.01
RIO40.3182.5869.7366.79Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.33, +7.98% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
NUE76.8581.2773.4164.13Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-29 at $75.08, +2.36% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PDA58.8079.9974.1875.50Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
BHP84.9378.0473.3364.36
WMT56.9777.5580.2247.93Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-30 at $57.98, -1.74% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
SYT59.1277.3855.4639.12
EXC84.8976.7165.0345.67
ABB31.0276.5176.1677.57Distribution Zone (for 8 days)
ECA80.9575.9360.5151.10
CHRW65.7575.6774.8880.50Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
TT46.3375.5566.5050.45
RIMM133.1875.2973.1469.98
COST72.4374.9972.4577.92Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
ATVI27.2273.9756.7547.84
BBD24.4271.4875.1376.06Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
STO37.0771.4282.3870.57Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
CVX95.6266.9377.0167.95
NTES23.6665.9772.8492.36
JNJ67.9065.9574.0968.99
TOT84.1065.8072.3068.01
MICC114.9363.0664.2272.63
LLTC35.1762.5074.4564.73
HDB116.8360.5562.2571.69
IBKR31.8560.3058.6974.42
WBK122.1960.0664.7276.03
HBC87.1557.9774.2370.04
DIS33.2957.7564.2872.13
GOOG594.9057.6567.4478.56
ADBE40.1552.4069.9675.64
PTR156.2751.5661.4178.36
GS197.1250.7061.4370.40
BA85.9248.6467.2180.48
CTSH33.2446.9561.6076.78
TM105.1240.2453.9674.58
OXPS22.6839.9849.2180.50
BMY23.2538.4859.6972.69
SNDK29.7838.4763.2474.64
GOL17.1632.5851.5170.26Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.69, +16.81% chg], after a 1 day AZ)

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX16.3417.0937.4640.88Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $15.86, +3.03% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS34.3124.7347.2447.39
GRMN42.1126.2825.5936.69Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-01 at $43.12, -2.34% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
DELL19.1027.0441.4051.26
BC16.7327.2650.6960.16
GFI13.1632.1635.6929.85
DNA67.7936.7829.9527.14
YHOO24.3741.0136.8129.78
KO58.3860.5539.6926.86


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AXP 50.42 0.02 0.04% 5.28% 10.33% 8.31% -1.21% 10.33% -13.32% -20.46%
T 39.85 -0.28 -0.70% 4.05% 6.01% 2.15% -2.80% 8.49% -0.47% 0.94%
CVX 95.62 0.30 0.31% 3.37% 3.15% 8.33% 2.31% 19.91% 8.07% 20.58%
AA 36.89 0.78 2.16% 3.22% 1.77% -1.47% 2.10% 12.92% -2.66% 3.45%
DIS 33.29 -0.20 -0.60% 2.65% 5.82% 5.62% 4.55% 10.71% -1.74% -7.14%
VZ 38.90 -0.69 -1.74% 2.50% 8.18% 4.01% -9.97% 5.62% -11.23% -4.33%
INTC 23.25 -0.33 -1.40% 2.38% 3.52% 6.90% -8.28% 15.56% -13.38% 6.16%
UTX 74.62 -0.48 -0.64% 2.16% 3.51% 3.94% -0.78% 3.14% -1.96% 9.74%
MCD 60.87 -0.08 -0.13% 2.15% 3.75% 9.38% 4.77% 13.06% 2.01% 21.94%
BAC 38.97 -0.82 -2.06% 2.07% 3.62% -1.34% -3.92% -8.02% -12.33% -23.95%
GM 22.36 -0.84 -3.62% 1.91% 5.12% 6.43% -8.40% -15.53% -37.89% -27.59%
HPQ 48.28 -0.08 -0.17% 1.45% -0.35% 5.14% -3.07% 12.33% -8.11% 10.25%
PFE 20.52 -0.09 -0.44% 1.43% 1.58% -4.47% -10.43% -10.63% -13.31% -24.22%
JPM 48.00 -0.66 -1.36% 1.39% 6.12% 5.40% 13.82% 9.36% 12.23% -8.80%
BA 85.92 0.23 0.27% 1.11% 8.64% 14.59% -0.81% 5.18% -12.30% -8.21%
DD 49.70 -0.16 -0.32% 1.06% -4.88% 1.45% 13.63% 11.41% 4.21% -3.01%
JNJ 67.90 -0.36 -0.53% 0.86% 2.38% 2.66% 3.02% 8.00% 5.29% 5.30%
AIG 47.39 -1.65 -3.36% 0.74% 1.83% -1.35% -15.83% -10.47% -20.39% -33.11%
PG 66.65 -0.15 -0.22% 0.66% -1.70% -5.47% -7.83% 2.48% -5.03% 6.79%
MMM 77.55 -1.00 -1.27% 0.54% -5.82% -3.29% -6.24% -1.95% -8.82% -7.91%
MSFT 29.08 -0.16 -0.55% 0.31% -4.40% -0.27% -17.43% 0.03% -20.83% -4.84%
IBM 122.03 -1.15 -0.93% 0.28% -1.87% 4.92% 16.56% 16.20% 7.61% 18.52%
GE 33.18 -0.16 -0.48% 0.03% 2.22% -10.95% -9.74% -3.01% -17.46% -10.69%
CAT 82.75 -0.05 -0.06% -0.34% -0.70% 7.12% 17.16% 22.56% 12.59% 13.20%
WMT 56.97 -0.53 -0.92% -0.66% 1.05% 5.05% 21.47% 14.95% 29.39% 18.02%
KO 58.38 -0.39 -0.66% -1.02% -3.26% -3.30% -4.44% 1.71% -3.25% 9.72%
HD 29.37 -0.75 -2.49% -1.21% 1.35% 3.05% 12.49% 4.93% -1.44% -24.50%
XOM 89.51 -0.10 -0.11% -3.18% -5.04% 0.66% -4.28% 9.01% 2.11% 11.12%
C 25.75 -0.64 -2.43% -3.95% 2.88% 4.67% -10.96% -4.81% -28.27% -52.39%
MRK 38.98 -0.39 -0.99% -5.94% -1.64% -4.41% -32.06% -15.17% -30.31% -24.92%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
IYZ 25.96 -0.12 -0.46% 3.72%