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May 15, 2008

Daily Report for Thu, May 15, 2008

Markets Re-cap

In yesterday’s CPI report, headline inflation for April reportedly lifted a mild +0.1% with the Y/Y rate up +3.9%, and core inflation lifted +0.2% with the Y/Y rate up +2.3%. That supposedly good news, coupled with an easing of petroleum prices due to a smaller-than expected inventory build, set off a modest gain in the US equity markets on Wednesday.

The DJIA (+66 +0.52% to 12898.38), S&P 500 (+5.6 +0.40% to 1408.66), and NASDAQ Composite (+1.58 +0.06% to 2496.7) closed a bit higher.

The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY +1.12%) including Retailers ($RLX +1.61%) was the leader and Energy (XLE -1.14%) including Oil Services ($OSX -2.17%) the loser. Goldminers ($XAU -1.80%) were soft along with a modestly firmer $USD (+0.15%) to 73.35.

Teekay LNG Partnership (NYSE: TGP) had strong increases in distributable cash flow the previous quarter and cash distribution. The stock was the Cara 100 winner on the session, up +5.9%.

The loser was Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI -13.9%), which reported Q2 revenues were $1,866.5 million that was up +27.56% vs a year ago. But there was a miss of the revenue consensus by -1.4%. Q2 EPS was $0.29, down -9.4% vs a year earlier, which also missed consensus by -3.33%.

Also on the earnings front, Deere (DE) reported a +22% earnings gain, but guided weaker this quarter due to rising raw-material prices. Macy's (M) reported Q1 EPS $0.02 vs $0.16. That beat consensus, which was for a loss of -$0.02/share. Early this morning, (Cara 100) JC Penney reported a -50% drop in Q1 earnings, and guided significant weakness throughout 2008.

$GOLD yesterday lost -$3.10/oz to 866.50. But that was yesterday.

On the economics front, the Fed just reported that industrial production dropped -0.7% last month, more than double the consensus. Manufacturing output fell by -0.8%, a large part of which was from cutbacks in auto production as demand has dropped.

Traders immediately saw that as a requirement for the Fed to drop rates, and the precious metals have taken off on a moonshot in the past few minutes: spot gold +$21.44 (+2.5%) to 884.28; palladium +4.5 to 433; platinum up +72 to 2069; and silver up +0.4025 to 16.935.

June Crude Oil has also popped +$1.24/bbl to 124.25 as the $USD weakened. The June Dow 30 futures are up about +17 to 12896.


Comments & Outlook

The US Industrial Production report showing plunging manufacturing output is the dominant force this morning. Watch UPS and FDX.

Have a great day.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
TGP 29.950 +1.670 +5.9 928.7K
INFY 44.330 +1.310 +3 3.2M
BHP 90.210 +2.410 +2.7 6.3M
OXPS 22.090 +0.590 +2.7 1.2M
SNDK 31.420 +0.830 +2.7 12.7M
NKE 67.440 +1.780 +2.7 3.8M
GRMN 44.790 +1.090 +2.5 4M
WHR 76.690 +1.790 +2.4 886.4K
CTSH 30.630 +0.710 +2.4 4.4M
YHOO 27.140 +0.580 +2.2 63.8M
RY 49.530 +1.010 +2.1 727K
KSS 49.590 +1.010 +2.1 5.8M
BBBY 33.710 +0.660 +2 4.9M
IBN 43.280 +0.830 +2 2.7M
WMT 57.450 +1.040 +1.8 17M
WAG 36.100 +0.640 +1.8 4.2M
CEO 187.810 +3.060 +1.7 471.6K
BDK 67.510 +1.090 +1.6 1.4M
DOW 42.430 +0.670 +1.6 7.6M
TS 56.480 +0.790 +1.4 2.1M
TCK 49.160 +0.670 +1.4 939.4K
DIS 34.800 +0.470 +1.4 9.9M
EXC 84.410 +0.970 +1.2 3M
TGT 53.850 +0.600 +1.1 6.5M
ATVI 32.520 +0.340 +1.1 5.3M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
WFMI 28.960 -4.680 -13.9 27.4M
CCJ 39.110 -1.370 -3.4 2.7M
ERTS 52.780 -1.790 -3.3 8.8M
ABX 37.760 -0.910 -2.4 9.4M
GGB 44.310 -1.020 -2.3 2.1M
GFI 13.520 -0.260 -1.9 7.9M
GG 38.290 -0.710 -1.8 4.8M
NUE 79.990 -1.400 -1.7 3.5M
LEH 42.230 -0.720 -1.7 17M
RIMM 138.560 -2.280 -1.6 20.7M
PBR 66.270 -1.080 -1.6 11.2M
GOL 16.010 -0.200 -1.2 381.5K
DEO 79.830 -0.950 -1.2 1.3M
GOOG 576.300 -6.700 -1.1 4.4M
BC 16.630 -0.180 -1.1 1.1M
SU 125.950 -1.360 -1.1 2.4M
IMO 57.415 -0.605 -1 274.9K
RIO 40.500 -0.410 -1 23.8M
QCOM 44.130 -0.440 -1 15.9M
PDA 57.190 -0.550 -1 81K
BBD 22.790 -0.210 -0.9 10.8M
CCL 39.620 -0.290 -0.7 4.8M
HBC 86.420 -0.600 -0.7 1.1M
VIP 32.440 -0.200 -0.6 2.9M
TM 100.770 -0.580 -0.6 234.1K

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
BHP 92.580 90.210 +2.410 +2.74 6.29M
TS 57.240 56.480 +0.790 +1.42 2.12M
ATVI 32.920 32.520 +0.340 +1.06 5.31M
COST 75.230 74.220 +0.240 +0.32 4.17M
ABB 32.500 32.140 +0.080 +0.25 4.48M
CVX 99.000 97.720 -0.010 -0.01 13.40M
NTES 25.370 24.410 -0.020 -0.08 1.58M
RIO 41.960 40.500 -0.410 -1.00 23.83M
SU 128.620 125.950 -1.360 -1.07 2.40M
RIMM 144.500 138.560 -2.280 -1.62 20.69M
NUE 82.400 79.990 -1.400 -1.72 3.47M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
WFMI 28.850 28.960 -4.680 -13.91 27.44M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
WFMI 28.960 -13.9 27.4M +877
ERTS 52.780 -3.3 8.8M +186
DEO 79.830 -1.2 1.3M +179
AMAT 19.900 +0.2 43M +110
BDK 67.510 +1.6 1.4M +79
OXPS 22.090 +2.7 1.2M +72
NTES 24.410 -0.1 1.6M +57
SNDK 31.420 +2.7 12.7M +45
GFI 13.520 -1.9 7.9M +40
CCL 39.620 -0.7 4.8M +36
BHP 90.210 +2.7 6.3M +33
DOW 42.430 +1.6 7.6M +30
NOK 28.290 +0.2 26.9M +30
SWK 50.000 +0.5 837.8K +28
ABB 32.140 +0.2 4.5M +21
CCJ 39.110 -3.4 2.7M +18
TS 56.480 +1.4 2.1M +18
RIMM 138.560 -1.6 20.7M +15
BMY 21.600 +0 15.7M +14
NKE 67.440 +2.7 3.8M +12
KO 56.540 +0.1 10.4M +11
ATVI 32.520 +1.1 5.3M +11
RY 49.530 +2.1 727K +11
CVX 97.720 -0 13.4M +10
IBN 43.280 +2 2.7M +10

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
CCJ Research Cap --- --- Buy Hold
PTR Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Sell
CCJ UBS Securities --- --- Buy Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
WMT Buckingham --- 52.00 Neutral Underperform


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ECA90.5189.1780.2273.36Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
RIMM138.5686.2183.0066.41Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-14 at $138.56, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
ATVI32.5285.6785.1385.84Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
SYT61.2084.8366.7459.91
GGB44.3184.5785.9968.56Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-14 at $44.31, +0.00% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
PBR66.2782.5071.5765.60
SU125.9582.3578.5171.91Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
RIO40.5080.4080.1659.05
PDA57.1978.6677.5058.87Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $57.80, -1.06% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
TT46.6376.9666.5062.87
WMT57.4575.9575.5856.42
IMO57.3675.3558.9547.41
ABB32.1475.2282.7779.48Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
BHP90.2174.3673.4970.44Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
NUE79.9974.0780.9958.26Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-09 at $78.41, +2.02% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CEO187.8172.9664.2968.45
NKE67.4472.3564.5758.67
NTES24.4172.2280.7178.33Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
STO37.9371.8284.0461.42Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-13 at $37.93, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CHRW65.6971.1285.6463.66Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-07 at $63.79, +2.98% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
COST74.2270.9478.7177.50Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
EXC84.4170.6360.6752.76
BBD22.7969.9173.6349.14Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $23.65, -3.64% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
CVX97.7269.2075.5570.14
LLTC36.6568.5384.4076.19
MICC121.3467.4469.5572.87
TS56.4866.7677.9569.99
TCK49.1663.8168.6070.39
TOT84.7963.5471.9466.34
DIS34.8060.1074.2470.51
DOW42.4357.9578.0484.29
INTC23.8456.5769.8570.29
ADBE40.9455.5773.8373.22
RY49.5353.9462.9170.05
TGP29.9548.7160.2382.15
SNDK31.4242.6468.7282.50
DELL20.0636.0853.0774.14

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX15.9212.0227.1736.34
UBS30.8729.4332.4928.68
WFMI28.9630.6523.9621.90
ABX37.7644.8126.9234.76
KO56.5450.3427.0123.31


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AA 42.00 -0.12 -0.28% 10.27% 20.76% 16.76% 16.25% 18.78% 13.94% 9.52%
UTX 75.16 0.24 0.32% 2.92% 3.71% 3.48% -0.07% 3.45% 0.32% 10.12%
INTC 23.84 0.08 0.34% 2.89% 7.10% 7.73% -5.96% 16.52% -7.78% 7.78%
IBM 127.52 0.94 0.74% 2.72% 5.65% 5.85% 21.81% 20.15% 23.28% 20.79%
CVX 97.72 -0.01 -0.01% 2.56% 1.63% 6.30% 4.56% 17.91% 13.43% 20.84%
MSFT 29.93 0.15 0.50% 2.46% 4.94% 3.39% -15.02% 5.02% -11.79% -3.36%
DD 49.58 0.57 1.16% 2.14% 1.37% -2.97% 13.35% 7.27% 7.99% -1.74%
MRK 39.83 0.66 1.68% 2.10% 4.71% -1.19% -30.57% -15.07% -30.49% -23.52%
T 39.61 0.35 0.89% 2.04% 2.32% 5.32% -3.39% 4.68% 0.69% -1.05%
HD 29.12 0.37 1.29% 1.96% 1.11% 3.93% 11.53% 5.85% 0.31% -25.35%
MCD 60.44 -0.73 -1.19% 1.79% 1.44% 5.70% 4.03% 8.74% 6.60% 19.38%
VZ 38.95 0.84 2.20% 1.75% 1.22% 8.65% -9.86% 2.45% -10.50% -6.37%
AXP 49.50 0.49 1.00% 1.64% 3.08% 13.14% -3.02% 8.34% -16.24% -20.70%
CAT 82.75 -1.32 -1.57% 1.37% 1.06% 4.72% 17.16% 16.90% 18.16% 8.45%
MMM 77.73 0.55 0.71% 1.37% 1.08% -3.67% -6.02% -3.19% -3.09% -8.37%
BA 85.69 0.61 0.72% 1.35% 0.98% 11.76% -1.07% 0.55% -7.65% -8.41%
XOM 89.91 0.23 0.26% 1.23% -3.40% -3.21% -3.85% 5.10% 4.17% 10.66%
WMT 57.45 0.80 1.41% 1.09% -0.91% 0.67% 22.49% 14.97% 23.52% 20.09%
PFE 20.06 0.09 0.45% 0.70% -0.25% -4.93% -12.44% -10.65% -15.04% -26.33%
DIS 34.80 0.47 1.37% 0.29% 7.31% 14.78% 9.30% 7.67% 9.23% -3.28%
JNJ 66.81 0.40 0.60% -0.15% -0.42% 1.69% 1.37% 6.40% -0.12% 6.71%
GE 32.51 0.18 0.56% -0.18% -0.58% 0.87% -11.56% -5.47% -16.66% -11.17%
PG 65.50 -0.23 -0.35% -0.46% -2.31% -5.44% -9.42% -1.70% -8.44% 6.12%
KO 56.54 0.04 0.07% -0.86% -3.96% -7.54% -7.45% -3.43% -7.86% 7.49%
JPM 45.91 0.43 0.95% -1.42% -3.65% 2.11% 8.87% 7.74% 1.68% -11.42%