By the close, the DJIA (-11.81 -0.09% to 12820), S&P 500 (-5.35 -0.38% to 1386), and NASDAQ Composite (-13.30 -0.55% to 2413) all closed down on the day.

The Toronto Exchange index lifted +111 +0.81% to 13937. When that happens (NY down and Toronto up, you have to know the sector leader in NY would be the Oils, and XLE was up +0.74% and the Industrials (XLI +0.71%) was also firm on the upside. The losers happened to be the consumers: Cyclical/Discretionary Spending (XLY -3.5%) and Staples (XLP -1.71%) as well as Tech (XLK -1.77%).

Airlines ($XAL) were still flying, despite all attempts to ground them for mysterious safety checks, and the goldminers ($XAU +3.14%) also got a lift in the afternoon with the rate cut. Paper makers and Retailers ($RLX) had a down day, which tends to happen when there is an inventory problem.

No problem in Brazil man where everything was coming up salsa after the FOMC spoke. Cara 100 stocks were literally flying after that and that included much more than GOL and ERJ. The Bovespa closed up +6.33% on the session – almost all of it in the closing 75 minutes.

Money flying to Sao Paulo seemed to be coming out of Garmin (GRMN -11.9%), which has a pretty good fix on direction, Oracle (ORCL -4.2%), which keeps track of the data, and Research In Motion (RIMM -3.7%), which communicates the results. Party on, Brazil.

On the US economics front, the advance Q1 GDP was up +0.6%, in line with expectations, but, as the former Dallas Fed head told the CNBC audience, there would have been a decline of -0.2% had the business inventory levels not been inflated after consumers stopped buying. Typical; the headline number gives the Talking Heads grist for the mill, but the reality is a different story.

On the earnings front, Time Warner (TWX) reported much lower earnings of $771 million vs $1.2 billion a year earlier, and also announced plans to split off its cable division. General Motors (GM) swung to a Q1 loss of $3.25 billion, which is more evidence that the auto manufacturing industry is in dire straits.

In Portugal earlier today, Nissan Motor Co CEO Carlos Ghosn said he expected the US auto market had few prospects of recovery until 2009-2010, meaning the industry would rely mostly on emerging markets for growth. He was reported saying "Japan at best will see stagnation, West Europe at best stagnation, the US is slumping in 2008 and at best in 2009-2010 we will see stabilization. The growth will come from emerging markets."

Crude Oil futures ($WTIC -$2.17/bbl) dropped sharply following the larger-than-expected build in US inventories last week as well as an end to a major strike action that shut down UK supplies.

The US Dollar turned red (-0.38% to 72.60) at the sound of another rate cut by the Fed.

The US long bond gained +0.67% to 116.89 as yields dropped across the spectrum (down -1.4% on the 30-year to -2.4% on the 5-year).

With the weaker USD yesterday, $GOLD (-11.70/oz) lifted after the FOMC announcement, but the problem was earlier in the day. This morning at about 7:50am ET, spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver were soft at 865.12, 414, 1905, and 16.65.

The Euro was down a bit to 1.5509 and Crude Oil futures were down a bit to 113.23. The DJIA futures were up +36 to 12843. These prices change by the minute, you know. :-)

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Comments & Outlook

The FOMC report did add one interesting point. The FED opined that high commodity prices (oil and presumably precious metals, which means the $USD would have to keep rallying) would come down in the near future. Although I too believe it, I wish the Fed would explain their rationale for important statements like that.

In any event, gold and the Euro took a tumble overnight, and the $USD moved higher. I see more losses ahead for the precious metals. The bounce that occurred in many of the goldminer stocks resulted from an over-sold condition. Did you take note of my comment that the Daily RSI-7 for Goldcorp (GG/G) yesterday before the open was down at the 20 level. It dropped lower during the morning. You might have also noted that rallies off over-sold conditions are good opportunities to find bids in a sinking market.

Finally, not to disappoint the goldbugs, I also opined that the $USD has not started a new Bull market, so this is a short-term rally that will soon be followed by another selling wave, and the timing of that reversal would be a good one to consider going back into the bullion. I can't tell you when that might be, but, knowing what to look for, I can often spot it when it happens.

As to trading the goldminer stocks at that point, I can’t say much now other than it would be a good point in time for the big capital pools to start accumulating positions in the better financed smaller and mid-size miners and explorers that are bringing in new mine production, ie, would likely see a large earnings increase in 2009-2012. Gold and silver in the ground is money in the ground.

Today is May Day. Don’t labour over it. :-)

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SYT	59.18	92.83	61.59	37.87	Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $61.87, -4.35% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
WMT	57.98	85.44	84.52	67.78	Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-30 at $57.98, +0.00% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
ECA	80.81	80.46	64.55	47.01	Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $84.94, -4.86% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
GGB	38.73	77.27	76.26	62.29	Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.71, +2.70% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
RIO	39.08	76.14	75.28	62.29	Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.33, +4.69% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
PBR	121.42	73.68	60.66	50.93	Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $126.18, -3.77% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
CHRW	62.68	73.41	80.43	69.45	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $62.32, +0.58% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
RIMM	121.63	72.87	69.95	50.89	Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $121.33, +0.25% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ABB	30.67	72.80	79.13	78.76	Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
PDA	55.12	72.14	72.32	65.82
TT	46.51	71.81	67.40	60.77
NUE	75.50	71.61	74.41	59.94	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-29 at $75.08, +0.56% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
COST	71.25	71.12	71.44	71.43	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
EXC	85.48	70.04	65.11	53.92	Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-04-21 at $86.32, -0.97% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
CVX	96.15	68.24	75.32	77.06
STO	36.17	67.08	81.34	68.47
BBD	22.58	66.56	72.66	67.27
TOT	84.00	64.99	72.79	72.60
NTES	22.32	63.87	72.53	87.77
LLTC	34.96	61.38	78.65	77.14
IBKR	31.57	59.40	58.85	77.86
HBC	86.79	56.65	71.06	77.15
GOOG	574.29	55.11	69.09	82.86
PTR	151.14	49.92	57.05	74.91
GS	191.37	48.10	62.34	72.59
BA	84.86	46.74	62.13	76.67
GOL	16.25	26.56	42.39	70.08	Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +9.95% chg], after a 1 day AZ)

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	16.23	15.27	28.98	37.08	Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $15.86, +2.33% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS	33.59	17.04	43.12	40.29
BC	16.68	19.12	50.95	63.13
DELL	18.63	23.60	29.39	36.14
JCP	42.50	26.54	50.95	58.88
GOL	16.25	26.56	42.39	70.08	Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +9.95% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WFMI	32.64	26.62	31.59	53.62
GRMN	40.90	27.54	20.63	28.24	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
BDK	65.63	28.32	38.47	35.60
BMY	21.97	28.48	43.50	53.40
WHR	72.78	33.70	29.81	25.13
WAG	34.85	35.17	34.74	28.06
DNA	68.20	39.00	30.35	23.73
SLW	13.27	45.51	30.22	25.22
ABX	38.62	47.02	27.51	32.44

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	23.20	2.00	9.43%	10.79%	16.58%	10.63%	-4.96%	-15.51%	-39.30%	-25.71%
AXP	48.02	0.01	0.02%	8.20%	9.76%	2.94%	-5.92%	1.44%	-20.36%	-20.85%
VZ	38.48	0.27	0.71%	5.92%	7.34%	1.37%	-10.95%	0.63%	-15.17%	0.79%
JPM	47.65	0.57	1.21%	5.54%	5.98%	3.05%	13.00%	0.63%	2.34%	-8.54%
AIG	46.20	-0.80	-1.70%	5.34%	1.61%	-1.43%	-17.94%	-15.03%	-26.44%	-33.92%
BA	84.86	-0.67	-0.78%	3.37%	10.68%	10.42%	-2.03%	2.34%	-12.81%	-8.75%
C	25.27	-1.05	-3.99%	2.60%	7.81%	5.20%	-12.62%	-9.20%	-39.99%	-52.87%
DIS	32.43	-0.33	-1.01%	2.50%	6.96%	2.76%	1.85%	10.27%	-5.42%	-7.29%
HD	28.80	-0.56	-1.91%	2.38%	2.78%	-1.23%	10.30%	-1.97%	-8.46%	-23.95%
WMT	57.98	-0.63	-1.07%	1.86%	1.59%	6.46%	23.62%	17.94%	27.79%	20.99%
BAC	37.54	-0.32	-0.85%	1.84%	1.51%	-6.85%	-7.45%	-10.92%	-21.78%	-26.25%
CVX	96.15	1.41	1.49%	1.77%	4.59%	9.87%	2.88%	15.52%	6.74%	23.60%
MCD	59.58	-0.62	-1.03%	1.52%	4.20%	5.15%	2.55%	16.80%	0.68%	23.41%
PFE	20.11	-0.13	-0.64%	1.16%	-4.69%	-6.51%	-12.22%	-12.94%	-17.75%	-24.00%
GE	32.70	-0.12	-0.37%	1.05%	1.46%	-13.99%	-11.04%	-6.41%	-19.22%	-11.29%
UTX	72.47	-0.64	-0.88%	0.85%	-0.22%	1.81%	-3.64%	-0.38%	-4.42%	7.95%
T	38.71	0.12	0.31%	0.47%	2.92%	-0.03%	-5.59%	3.64%	-6.52%	-0.03%
CAT	81.88	0.37	0.45%	0.23%	3.62%	4.29%	15.93%	19.64%	11.46%	12.75%
PG	67.05	1.15	1.75%	-0.18%	-3.20%	-4.87%	-7.27%	3.01%	-2.76%	4.11%
JNJ	67.09	-0.10	-0.15%	-0.25%	2.12%	2.73%	1.79%	7.90%	3.50%	4.47%
XOM	93.07	1.28	1.39%	-1.22%	0.19%	5.14%	-0.47%	9.13%	2.12%	17.25%
INTC	22.26	-0.36	-1.59%	-1.33%	0.59%	1.88%	-12.19%	7.59%	-15.26%	3.53%
MRK	38.04	0.90	2.42%	-1.50%	-5.63%	2.53%	-33.69%	-18.53%	-34.26%	-26.05%
AA	34.78	0.13	0.38%	-1.56%	-3.31%	-4.53%	-3.74%	6.36%	-11.66%	-2.00%
DD	48.91	0.24	0.49%	-2.14%	-4.29%	0.14%	11.82%	9.76%	1.41%	-0.53%
IBM	120.70	-2.15	-1.75%	-2.35%	0.19%	5.13%	15.29%	14.25%