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May 24, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, May 24, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The equity market continues to suffer under the pressure of $4 gasoline in America. The DJIA (-145.99 -1.16% to 12479.63), S&P 500 (-18.42 -1.32% to 1375.93), and NASDAQ Composite (-19.91 -0.81% to 2444.67) were crushed for the third time in four days leading up to the US Memorial Day long weekend, traditionally one for long highway driving trips and the Indianapolis 500 motor car race.

Technology (XLK -0.20%) was the strongest sector. Most were down over -1% on the session, with prices weak at the close.

In the industry groups, the Airlines ($XAL -4.3% on the day and -20.4% on the week) have been hammered. There are now concerns that all US airlines save for one or two are possible candidates for bankruptcy within a year. The problem with the airlines is that they have no pricing power in terms of fuel surcharges. Higher prices will lead to declining revenues, which are already below the break-even point and near to their high debt service costs.

Among Cara 100 stocks, China Telecom (CHA) lifted +5.0% as Dow Jones reported that within a major overhaul of China’s telecom industry, China Unicom's network running on Code Division Multiple Access technology will be injected into fixed-line carrier China Telecom, while China Unicom, with its remaining network running on the Global System for Mobile Communications technology, will merge with fixed-line carrier China Netcom. Shares of China Netcom (CN +10.5%) and China Unicom (CHU +8.7%) also soared on the announcement. Qualcomm (QCOM +4.1%), another Cara 100 company was up on the news. Qualcomm designs, manufactures, and markets digital wireless telecommunications products and services based on its CDMA technology.

This news did hurt (Cara 100) China Mobile (CHL), which was down -5.8% on the day. The biggest Cara 100 loser on Friday was China National Offshore Oil (CEO), down -6.5%.

On the macro-economic front, the US National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported resales of homes in April fell -1.0% to a 4.89 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Y/Y sales are down -17.5%. Inventory of unsold homes climbed to a 23-year high.

Treasury yields dropped as bond prices rallied on the day. The 30-year T-Bond jumped +0.90% to 116.86.

The US Dollar ($USD) dropped -0.42% to 71.96, which helped support the high price of Crude Oil ($WTIC +1.38/bbl to 132.19) and $GOLD (+7.50/oz to 925.80). The Euro gained +0.27% to 1.5767 and the Yen +0.75% to 96.77.

The precious metals spot prices at the close of the week were: gold 924.20 (same as the past three days, but up about $17 from Monday morning); palladium 448.5 (modestly stronger); platinum 2160 (unchanged from Monday morning); and silver 18.15 (stronger).

The near futures at the end of the week were for Oil: 132.19 (basically unchanged over the past two days); the Euro: 1.5773 (stronger against the $USD for the past two days); and the DJIA: 12471 (weaker as the sell-off in equities continued into the US Memorial Day weekend).

On Friday, the UK FTSE (-1.53%), French CAC (-1.89%) and German DAX (-1.79%) suffered greater percentage losses than the broad market indexes in the US.


Comments & Outlook

I shall attempt to produce my Week In Review on Sunday morning before hanging out the “Gone Fishing” shingle.

This is a holiday weekend in the US. Have a good one, but please don’t forget the meaning of Memorial Day.


All Tables

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLU 40.91 -0.71 -1.71% 0.05% 2.20% 1.41% -2.80% 3.78% -2.41% -2.92%
IYH 63.38 -0.58 -0.91% -0.56% 0.14% -1.03% -9.59% -3.88% -9.65% -12.47%
XLP 28.08 -0.14 -0.50% -1.44% 1.01% 0.54% -1.09% 2.11% -1.61% 2.30%
XLE 86.26 -1.49 -1.70% -3.02% 1.76% 4.08% 8.50% 15.17% 16.49% 27.04%
XLK 24.48 -0.05 -0.20% -3.51% -0.08% 2.00% -6.28% 9.04% -5.04% -3.24%
SPY 137.64 -1.87 -1.34% -3.52% -0.91% -1.40% -5.03% 1.49% -4.50% -9.71%
IYZ 25.97 -0.31 -1.18% -3.53% 0.58% 4.34% -10.97% 8.03% -8.88% -23.39%
SMH 32.08 -0.22 -0.68% -3.61% 1.07% 3.62% 2.30% 11.43% 0.91% -12.40%
XLI 37.79 -0.52 -1.36% -3.79% -1.20% -1.51% -1.87% 2.38% -1.00% -2.05%
XLB 43.87 -0.61 -1.37% -4.38% 0.62% -0.18% 6.22% 6.04% 11.01% 9.05%
XLY 31.70 -0.55 -1.71% -5.20% -1.55% -2.04% -1.55% -1.09% -5.51% -20.41%
XLF 24.65 -0.39 -1.56% -6.13% -5.16% -8.60% -13.08% -9.38% -15.78% -34.89%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
SU 142.22 -1.44 -1.00% 5.49% 13.91% 23.53% 28.97% 47.10% 38.95% 61.52%
IMO 59.84 -0.59 -0.98% 4.85% 3.58% 4.56% 8.96% 12.06% 13.01% 27.78%
PBR 72.38 0.36 0.50% 2.45% 12.04% -41.31% -39.08% -38.95% -28.18% 32.54%
TOT 89.37 -0.17 -0.19% 1.27% 7.74% 8.72% 7.31% 19.56% 9.72% 17.64%
CVX 100.73 -1.18 -1.16% 0.35% 3.43% 8.67% 7.78% 17.92% 16.22% 23.75%
STO 41.70 -0.53 -1.26% 0.05% 9.25% 20.17% 33.48% 39.42% 28.98% 47.25%
ECA 93.31 -1.00 -1.06% -0.84% 8.59% 13.90% 34.05% 31.50% 37.36% 51.62%
XOM 90.70 -1.81 -1.96% -2.13% 2.12% -1.90% -3.01% 4.05% 2.73% 9.29%
CEO 185.35 -12.84 -6.48% -3.50% 2.41% 7.00% 10.71% 13.02% 6.71% 96.70%
SLB 100.03 -2.44 -2.38% -5.01% -4.74% -2.64% -0.55% 17.06% 6.29% 24.11%
RIG 152.01 -3.09 -1.99% -5.31% -1.07% -1.76% 4.15% 10.18% 20.38% 56.40%
PTR 138.38 -4.28 -3.00% -5.83% -1.52% -7.44% -20.31% -8.40% -25.12% 6.79%


Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TS 60.75 -0.47 -0.77% 2.70% 13.87% 16.65% 36.86% 46.77% 32.24% 27.98%
GGB 49.21 -0.61 -1.22% 0.70% 13.20% 32.53% 71.46% 59.88% 83.07% 125.32%
MT 99.84 1.03 1.04% -1.69% 5.57% 12.23% 30.68% 27.71% 39.73% 70.46%
VCP 31.93 0.21 0.66% -2.65% 3.60% 3.07% 7.51% -3.80% 4.69% 46.47%
TCK 50.29 -0.01 -0.02% -2.75% 4.71% 10.60% 38.77% 38.81% 32.90% 25.51%
DOW 40.42 -1.20 -2.88% -5.74% -1.96% -1.08% 4.31% 4.31% 0.67% -10.93%
BHP 89.50 -2.80 -3.03% -5.79% 1.80% 5.92% 27.11% 21.22% 22.91% 72.91%
AA 40.25 -0.55 -1.35% -6.72% 3.10% 12.68% 11.40% 10.12% 14.51% -0.30%
RIO 40.87 -0.57 -1.37% -6.91% 3.27% 7.79% 24.96% 14.72% 25.53% -6.98%
RTP 505.00 -20.46 -3.89% -9.00% -0.03% 0.84% 20.32% 10.49% 15.81% 75.19%
PKX 130.84 -2.92 -2.18% -9.38% 2.55% 5.64% -10.67% -0.33% -14.75% 13.40%
NUE 72.32 -2.17 -2.92% -11.88% -7.77% -4.51% 24.75% 9.82% 35.86% 11.67%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ABB 32.76 -0.19 -0.58% 0.21% 5.20% 8.95% 14.39% 37.07% 20.66% 54.24%
FLR 186.79 -1.94 -1.03% -2.39% 13.92% 15.68% 29.36% 41.68% 38.24% 82.18%
CAT 81.55 -0.67 -0.81% -2.57% -0.26% -0.85% 15.46% 14.57% 18.83% 7.26%
TXT 60.52 -1.00 -1.63% -3.06% -0.57% -1.42% -9.41% 6.59% -9.64% 12.81%
MMM 75.81 -0.83 -1.08% -3.62% -0.67% -2.58% -8.34% -4.84% -8.39% -13.79%
BA 81.48 0.07 0.09% -4.33% -3.07% -3.96% -5.93% -1.88% -9.00% -14.74%
FDX 86.83 -2.00 -2.25% -4.53% -3.92% -8.08% 0.78% -2.54% -7.23% -18.13%
HON 58.76 -0.61 -1.03% -4.93% -1.39% -2.86% -1.90% 3.93% 7.48% 3.93%
GE 30.43 -0.58 -1.87% -5.29% -5.70% -8.70% -17.22% -9.30% -19.22% -19.07%
UPS 67.02 -2.33 -3.36% -5.30% -4.65% -7.84% -3.09% -6.77% -5.50% -4.23%
UTX 70.01 -1.83 -2.55% -5.34% -4.27% -3.67% -6.91% -3.07% -4.70% 1.68%
ERJ 37.80 -0.33 -0.87% -10.19% -7.10% -9.48% -16.24% -16.96% -14.58% -18.99%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TM 98.89 -1.59 -1.58% -2.93% -2.39% -3.11% -7.11% -10.69% -9.61% -17.85%
EBAY 30.18 -0.37 -1.21% -3.18% 0.60% -3.58% -7.11% 8.91% -5.51% -8.21%
NKE 64.77 -0.24 -0.37% -4.09% -0.15% -5.78% 2.35% 6.90% 1.60% 18.15%
WHR 71.77 -0.62 -0.86% -4.14% -0.91% -6.06% -10.15% -19.11% -7.85% -36.22%
DIS 33.23 -0.38 -1.13% -4.81% -3.12% 2.69% 4.37% 2.03% 4.37% -8.91%
TGT 52.04 -0.97 -1.83% -5.17% -0.38% -3.59% 5.11% -0.06% -8.97% -11.19%
BDK 63.05 -0.83 -1.30% -6.61% -5.64% -6.70% -9.84% -5.71% -23.21% -31.62%
CCL 36.99 -0.96 -2.53% -6.71% -6.87% -6.24% -15.28% -11.61% -13.43% -25.62%
BBBY 30.85 -0.61 -1.94% -8.67% -4.16% -7.72% 8.78% 6.71% 0.75% -24.41%
GOL 14.65 -0.09 -0.61% -11.27% -7.80% -2.33% -38.93% -17.14% -43.70% -52.25%
JCP 39.93 -0.58 -1.43% -11.29% -6.94% -7.57% -4.13% -18.18% -3.32% -49.32%
BC 14.67 -0.37 -2.46% -12.31% -9.50% -10.28% -13.30% -11.04% -23.83% -57.50%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BUD 56.61 4.03 7.66% 9.43% 11.15% 20.06% 9.65% 18.41% 12.79% 10.24%
KO 58.63 0.36 0.62% 2.73% 4.42% -1.18% -4.03% 0.64% -5.89% 14.22%
PEP 68.26 -0.12 -0.18% 0.57% 1.11% 0.95% -9.34% -4.37% -9.60% -0.63%
SBUX 16.95 -0.14 -0.82% -0.59% 6.87% 6.87% -12.22% -7.02% -26.53% -41.33%
PG 65.27 -0.35 -0.53% -2.22% 0.09% -1.92% -9.74% -1.42% -10.42% 3.44%
WMT 55.75 -0.30 -0.54% -2.26% -2.50% -3.30% 18.87% 11.57% 21.91% 20.33%
DEO 78.46 0.06 0.08% -3.14% -3.55% -4.24% -7.76% -4.99% -12.16% -8.12%
WAG 35.09 -0.59 -1.65% -3.52% 0.29% -1.13% -6.03% -6.20% -11.68% -21.48%
KR 26.96 -0.25 -0.92% -3.58% 2.51% 2.16% 5.03% 4.74% -3.71% -8.67%
WFMI 27.62 -0.38 -1.36% -4.96% -15.74% -11.45% -30.53% -24.86% -32.22% -31.58%
PDA 58.46 -0.49 -0.83% -5.50% 4.62% 10.89% 21.46% 13.89% 27.36% 68.86%
ABV 72.27 -1.40 -1.90% -7.99% -2.47% -1.87% -0.29% -10.10% 4.60% 8.33%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
UNH 34.75 -0.55 -1.56% 7.52% 5.49% 2.24% -38.68% -26.63% -35.73% -35.56%
MDT 50.13 -0.61 -1.20% 6.70% 4.90% 1.44% 1.27% 3.28% 3.75% -5.38%
AET 45.61 -1.02 -2.19% 4.71% 5.46% 3.87% -19.47% -9.02% -15.76% -12.12%
WLP 53.94 -1.51 -2.72% 4.68% 2.29% 5.62% -38.00% -27.04% -34.03% -36.14%
NVS 53.03 0.23 0.44% 3.25% 4.16% 4.80% -2.82% 5.36% -5.27% -5.05%
AMGN 42.38 -0.39 -0.91% 0.83% 0.78% 0.31% -9.06% -8.72% -21.17% -22.58%
GSK 44.49 -0.36 -0.80% 0.07% 1.34% -1.40% -11.32% 0.93% -12.40% -16.56%
BMY 21.69 -0.26 -1.18% -1.14% -0.09% -2.08% -16.99% -3.73% -22.76% -27.70%
DNA 68.53 -0.36 -0.52% -2.37% 0.00% -4.78% 1.68% -4.27% -8.41% -11.76%
PFE 19.55 -0.23 -1.19% -2.42% -1.23% -4.33% -14.69% -13.13% -14.95% -28.51%
JNJ 64.92 -0.49 -0.75% -2.64% -2.45% -3.55% -1.50% 2.75% -2.93% 1.74%
NVO 66.17 -0.37 -0.56% -4.07% -1.96% -1.31% 3.71% -3.29% -47.72% -36.71%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BBD 22.65 -0.07 -0.31% -3.21% -0.18% 2.30% -25.57% -23.04% -21.63% -10.19%
HBC 84.10 -0.54 -0.64% -3.47% 0.04% -1.96% 2.01% 11.79% -0.76% -9.30%
DB 114.44 -1.77 -1.52% -3.71% -2.38% -4.91% -11.33% 2.01% -7.97% -27.45%
CS 52.29 0.09 0.17% -3.74% -3.47% -4.77% -12.38% 7.90% -8.54% -30.91%
UBS 29.30 -0.61 -2.04% -4.78% -5.61% -18.61% -36.01% -12.93% -35.23% -54.23%
GS 172.64 -4.56 -2.57% -7.75% -8.21% -10.08% -16.84% -2.85% -20.25% -24.46%
C 21.12 -0.60 -2.76% -8.65% -10.62% -20.60% -26.97% -15.92% -33.38% -61.61%
JPM 42.32 -0.73 -1.70% -9.05% -9.13% -11.45% 0.36% -3.66% 0.88% -18.60%
MER 43.36 -1.14 -2.56% -11.24% -10.51% -12.65% -17.82% -18.27% -19.01% -53.78%
IBN 39.42 -1.49 -3.64% -11.34% -7.20% -16.48% -36.57% -26.82% -32.91% -15.26%
MS 41.83 -1.12 -2.61% -11.40% -8.99% -17.41% -17.90% -5.34% -16.16% -51.22%
LEH 36.11 -2.39 -6.21% -17.25%