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May 30, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, May 30, 2008

Markets Re-cap

As with Wednesday, there was on Thursday a modest bullish bias to the equity market as the commodity trade unwound and Q1 US GDP was revised up to an annualized growth of +0.9% from the preliminary reading of +0.6%.

The DJIA (+52.19 +0.41% to 12646.22), S&P 500 (+7.42 +0.53% to 1398.26), and NASDAQ Composite (+21.62 +0.87% to 2508.32) closed modestly higher. Energy (XLE -2.7%) and Basic Materials (XLB -0.7%) reversed fortunes from the prior day, while Healthcare (XLV +2.2%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.9%) and Financials (XLF +1.8%) were strongest.

The Cara 100 winners on the day were: CHA +5.0%, DNA +4.3% and GOL +4.2%. The losers were: TCK -4.6%, CEO -4.2%, SLW and ABX -4.1% and GFI -3.7%.

Paper stocks were up +3.6% for a two-day gain of over +6.8%. Banks ($BKX +1.6%) reversed the prior day’s loss of -1.7%. Yesterday’s losers were Goldminers ($XAU -4.1%) and Oil Service companies ($OSX -2.6%).

On the earnings front, Sears Holdings (SHLD) disappointed with a Q1 loss of -$56 million vs earnings of +$223 million a year ago. But (Cara 100) Costco Wholesale (COST) reported a +32% increase in Q3 earnings to +$295.1 million vs +$224 million a year ago. Canada’s CIBC took a loss, while Royal Bank and National Bank both had lower profits.

There was significant profit-taking in the oil and precious metal contracts in the face of a stronger $USD (+0.70% to 73.02). Crude Oil ($WTIC) plunged -4.41/bbl to 126.62. A couple days ago as the near futures hit $135/bbl, oil trader Boone Pickens did his usual hype that oil was on the way to $150, and traders got sucked in.

$GOLD dropped 23.30/oz to close at 881.70.

The US 30-year long bond ($USB) lost -0.72% to close at $113.94, which is a significant drop this week, but yields today are down and bonds up.

At 9:00am, spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver were: 887.13, 426, 2003, and 16.84.

In futures trading, the Euro (1.5490) was flat, Crude Oil (+0.99 to 127.61) up, and the DJIA futures up about +45 to 12669.

The enthusiasm today is generated from yesterday’s after the close very positive report from (Cara 100) DELL, which beat the $0.34 consensus forecast with a $0.38/share profit. Revenue came in higher at $16 billion vs expected $15.73. Laptop sales in China and via stores were especially strong. This company’s fortunes have been turned around by founder and CEO Michael Dell since he resumed that office. There will be 3700 job cuts but costs are still an issue.

Today I thought it would be DELL at the bell, but perhaps not.


Comments & Outlook

Despite Dell’s performance, I have to think that as long as the banks and broker-dealers are in tough, and laying off staff, there will not be the usual high demand from that industry for computer systems. So, be wary of the run-up in DELL shares here.

Another thought came to mind today: as more independent traders on the buy-side become increasingly sophisticated, the average time for trades is going to be shortened. That’s due to traders recognizing and managing risk better, and listening less to the sell side. But the situation also leads to increasing need for greater skill for the average trader because day trading is the domain of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B).

Eventually, greater high frequency trading will lead to more transparency in markets. Anomalies are now being studied more intensely and jumped upon. Regulators can see what’s going on, and I think they will step in more and start to prosecute the wrong-doers like M&A tipping, and large trade front running practices.

That’s all good for the public.

Have a good day, and weekend.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CHA 71.160 +3.360 +5 0K
DNA 71.010 +2.950 +4.3 4.8M
GOL 15.420 +0.620 +4.2 1.9M
CTSH 33.490 +1.280 +4 7.5M
WHR 74.340 +2.230 +3.1 1.1M
GRMN 47.580 +1.360 +2.9 2.9M
SBUX 18.330 +0.500 +2.8 12.4M
TGT 53.750 +1.430 +2.7 9.1M
CSCO 26.210 +0.670 +2.6 58.3M
PTR 139.150 +3.550 +2.6 1.2M
GOOG 583.000 +14.760 +2.6 4.8M
WBK 110.400 +2.700 +2.5 20K
AET 46.510 +1.120 +2.5 3.8M
JNJ 66.420 +1.540 +2.4 13.3M
ATVI 33.730 +0.740 +2.2 2.7M
ADBE 43.800 +0.960 +2.2 6.7M
KSS 45.330 +0.990 +2.2 5.6M
INFY 45.360 +0.970 +2.2 3.8M
RY 51.060 +1.080 +2.2 891K
OXPS 22.640 +0.460 +2.1 610.4K
ERTS 50.050 +0.970 +2 3.3M
QCOM 49.220 +0.900 +1.9 21.4M
CHRW 64.730 +1.180 +1.9 1.2M
IBKR 32.130 +0.570 +1.8 609.8K
BMY 22.480 +0.390 +1.8 8.1M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
TCK 47.920 -2.300 -4.6 1.1M
CEO 176.150 -7.800 -4.2 701.8K
SLW 14.060 -0.600 -4.1 2.6M
ABX 39.170 -1.670 -4.1 8.6M
GFI 12.900 -0.500 -3.7 5.6M
MICC 113.060 -4.250 -3.6 666.6K
PBR 70.780 -2.590 -3.5 19.4M
GG 39.450 -1.380 -3.4 6.5M
BHP 85.750 -2.850 -3.2 4.3M
CCJ 40.260 -1.210 -2.9 1.8M
GGB 49.590 -1.430 -2.8 4.2M
NUE 72.900 -2.100 -2.8 7.8M
STO 38.100 -1.070 -2.7 1.7M
RIO 39.560 -1.100 -2.7 28.8M
SU 67.580 -1.780 -2.6 4.9M
ECA 89.450 -2.230 -2.4 3.2M
CVX 98.860 -1.560 -1.6 12.9M
UBS 24.540 -0.360 -1.4 8.2M
INTC 23.140 -0.330 -1.4 54.9M
NOK 28.020 -0.350 -1.2 16.5M
XOM 89.350 -1.080 -1.2 24.7M
TGP 29.050 -0.300 -1 99.4K
IBN 37.710 -0.370 -1 3.1M
IMO 57.344 -0.496 -0.9 385.4K
SNDK 27.860 -0.240 -0.9 6.7M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ATVI 33.890 33.730 +0.740 +2.24 2.67M
QCOM 49.300 49.220 +0.900 +1.86 21.43M
PDA 66.810 63.950 -0.230 -0.36 228.27K

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GFI 12.810 12.900 -0.500 -3.73 5.60M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
GOL 15.420 +4.2 1.9M +104
COST 72.980 -0.4 8.8M +90
VCP 33.550 +0.7 969.1K +88
DB 113.350 -0.8 827.9K +74
UBS 24.540 -1.4 8.2M +58
TOT 87.080 -0.8 2.6M +52
RY 51.060 +2.2 891K +52
ABV 69.310 -0.8 1.5M +47
DNA 71.010 +4.3 4.8M +45
INFY 45.360 +2.2 3.8M +42
GGB 49.590 -2.8 4.2M +40
CTSH 33.490 +4 7.5M +39
DELL 21.810 +0.6 34.6M +38
WAG 36.030 +1.3 6.6M +38
PDA 63.950 -0.4 228.3K +33
CEO 176.150 -4.2 701.8K +32
LEH 37.370 +1.4 27.1M +32
RIO 39.560 -2.7 28.8M +30
BC 14.150 +0.6 2M +30
JNJ 66.420 +2.4 13.3M +27
UTX 70.230 +0 5.7M +26
NUE 72.900 -2.8 7.8M +26
ADBE 43.800 +2.2 6.7M +25
IBN 37.710 -1 3.1M +25
QCOM 49.220 +1.9 21.4M +23

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
ADBE Jefferies 31.00 43.00 Underperform Hold

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
EXC Smith Barney 85.00 91.00 Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT60.8589.9064.3549.32
ECA89.4583.0365.2141.26Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $94.31, -5.15% chg], after a 8 day DZ)
WMT57.9482.7668.0566.79
GGB49.5980.0590.5760.71Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-29 at $49.59, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI33.7379.3187.6475.55Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
RIMM138.9878.4175.0762.13
EXC89.3977.2173.3862.01Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $88.82, +0.64% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ABB32.5376.9884.1757.28Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-23 at $32.76, -0.70% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
COST72.9876.1263.7358.31
PBR70.7875.7067.7752.12Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $72.02, -1.72% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
TS60.3774.8481.3162.58Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $59.21, +1.96% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
CHRW64.7374.6472.8856.12
TT46.4074.4367.6553.47Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-20 at $46.53, -0.28% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
SU67.5873.4171.0150.12Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $68.73, -1.67% chg], after a 12 day DZ)
QCOM49.2273.2585.8776.04Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
PDA63.9572.5586.6771.27Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
STO38.1072.0168.4441.28Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-27 at $39.07, -2.48% chg], after a 7 day DZ)
RIO39.5671.2762.2638.47Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-21 at $41.78, -5.31% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
NKE68.3970.2963.6066.50
BBD23.5966.0779.1961.77
ORCL22.7965.6170.5468.67
LLTC36.4064.6179.6152.02
MBT87.7964.5962.9271.30
ADBE43.8062.3681.8977.66
RY51.0658.3670.7462.37
INFY45.3653.6870.4764.81
CTSH33.4948.7563.9771.15
AET46.5144.4858.1170.49
DELL21.8142.5170.0773.66
SBUX18.3328.1057.7781.07

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
BC14.1517.0229.0715.24Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
UBS24.5420.6817.8911.21Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
WFMI28.9923.3529.9643.63Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-28 at $28.69, +1.05% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
GOL15.4227.9639.6350.83
SBUX18.3328.1057.7781.07
BDK64.0029.6735.3138.40
GFI12.9031.7335.2528.30
GE30.6431.8625.6425.97
DB113.3537.4034.7327.05
ERJ36.7637.7922.9623.40
IBN37.7138.4026.3920.00
DEO78.6844.4526.6141.60
HDB97.6246.8935.5329.53
ABV69.3150.9932.8018.58
CHL74.2652.8636.0824.58


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
IBM 129.71 0.17 0.13% 5.05% 1.72% 7.46% 23.90% 13.92% 20.66% 22.47%
WMT 57.94 0.85 1.49% 4.91% 0.85% -0.07% 23.54% 16.84% 21.88% 23.43%
HPQ 46.91 0.39 0.84% 4.71% 2.78% 1.21% -5.82% -1.80% -8.11% 2.96%
C 22.04 0.44 2.04% 4.65% -5.20% -12.78% -23.79% -7.04% -31.74% -59.86%
T 40.20 0.69 1.75% 3.37% 1.49% 3.85% -1.95% 15.42% 5.71% -0.72%
VZ 38.37 0.60 1.59% 3.09% -1.49% -0.29% -11.20% 5.64% -9.68% -11.18%
HD 27.71 0.28 1.02% 2.90% -4.84% -3.78% 6.13% 4.37% -0.61% -28.31%
AXP 46.75 0.60 1.30% 2.79% -5.56% -2.64% -8.41% 10.52% -17.82% -27.34%
JPM 43.57 0.71 1.66% 2.59% -5.10% -8.56% 3.32% 7.18% -0.18% -15.92%
MMM 77.76 0.86 1.12% 2.15% 0.04% 1.12% -5.98% -0.82% -7.00% -10.94%
KO 57.87 0.43 0.75% 2.15% 2.35% -1.70% -5.27% -1.01% -7.84% 10.90%
MCD 59.48 0.79 1.35% 1.19% -1.59% -0.17% 2.38% 9.92% 1.94% 17.53%
BA 82.11 -0.02 -0.02% 1.13% -4.18% -3.24% -5.21% -0.82% -11.91% -16.64%
JNJ 66.42 1.54 2.37% 1.05% -0.58% -1.00% 0.77% 7.20% -2.89% 5.34%
PG 65.47 0.60 0.92% 0.46% -0.05% -2.36% -9.46% -1.07% -11.71% 2.86%
DIS 33.81 -0.05 -0.15% 0.45% -2.84% 4.26% 6.19% 4.32% 3.05% -5.00%
MSFT 28.31 0.13 0.46% 0.21% -5.41% -0.74% -19.62% 4.08% -15.72% -8.05%
MRK 38.92 0.26 0.67% -0.54% -2.28% 2.31% -32.16% -12.14% -35.05% -27.12%
BAC 34.60 0.73 2.16% -0.69% -5.98% -7.83% -14.69% -12.93% -22.47% -32.41%
CAT 82.78 -0.41 -0.49% -0.74% 0.04% 1.10% 17.20% 14.45% 15.42% 9.28%
GE 30.64 0.09 0.29% -1.26% -5.75% -6.30% -16.65% -7.54% -19.66% -18.07%
DD 47.80 0.17 0.36% -1.44% -3.59% -2.27% 9.28% 2.97% 3.71% -6.73%
PFE 19.40 0.10 0.52% -1.67% -3.29% -3.53% -15.32% -12.93% -17.80% -29.61%
INTC 23.14 -0.33 -1.41% -2.20% -2.94% 3.95% -8.72% 15.87% -12.15% 3.77%
UTX 70.23 0.00 0.00% -2.49% -6.56% -3.09% -6.62% -0.40% -6.91% 1.80%
AA 40.34 -1.23 -2.96% -3.26% -3.95% 15.99% 11.65% 8.62% 10.37% -0.07%
CVX 98.86 -1.56 -1.55% -4.04% 1.17% 2.82% 5.78% 14.08% 14.21% 22.49%
XOM 89.35 -1.08 -1.19% -4.61% -0.62% -4.00% -4.45% 2.69% 0.86% 8.15%
AIG 35.34 0.43 1.23% -5.66% -10.40% -23.51% -37.23% -24.58% -38.36% -50.84%
GM 17.38 0.23 1.34% -9.10% -13.92% -25.09% -28.80% -25.34% -39.61%