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May 23, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, May 23, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The DJIA (+24.43 +0.19% to 12625.62), S&P 500 (+3.64 +0.26% to 1394.35), and NASDAQ Composite (+16.31 +0.66% to 2464.58) finished modestly higher on Thursday following two consecutive sessions of sharp losses.

Consumer staples (XLP +1.04%) and Energy (XLE -1.40%) were the strongest and weakest sector ETF’s.

In the industry groups, the Banks ($BKX +1.26%) were strong, while Oil Services ($OSX -1.35%) was weak.

Among Cara 100 stocks, Aetna (AET) and Dell (DELL) each gained +5.4%. As to Dell, Wachovia said the PC end market is healthy and pricing stable. They rate DELL as Outperform.

The Cara 100 losers were led by China’s Netease.com (NTES -6.0%). The Company reported Q1 earnings of $0.30 versus $0.31 and consensus $0.31. Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ -5.5%) and PetroBrazil (PBR -4.2%) were also weak.

Oil and Gold prices weakened during the day.

The precious metals spot prices at 8:13am are: gold 925.95 (same as past two days at this time); palladium 444 (modestly weaker); platinum 2177 (modestly stronger); and silver 18.16 (stronger).

The near futures for Oil: 132.175 (down over $2 from this point yesterday, but stronger this morning); the Euro: 1.5729 (a tad stronger against the $USD this morning); and the DJIA: 12573 (weaker as the sell-off in equities appears to continue heading into the 3-day Memorial Day weekend in the US.

Overnight, the All-Ords of Australia lost -0.91% to 5866.2; Shanghai Composite -0.36% to 3473.09; Hang Seng of Hong Kong -1.31% to 24714; an the Sensex BSE 30 index of India -1.52% to 16650. Japan’s Nikkei Dow was up modestly (+0.24% to 14012).


Comments & Outlook

The Memorial Day holiday weekend is a time when Americans hit the road for long-distance driving. The big Indy 500 auto race is also held. But this weekend, most drivers will be focused on the $4 per gallon it costs to fill up the car.

Meanwhile, Ford (F) cannot sell as many gas-guzzling trucks and SUV’s as they’d planned and the price has plunged again, closing at $7.16. The chart looks dreadful.

My belief is that the auto, housing and banking industries must return to growth and good health before the new Bull phase of the long equity cycle can begin. This one will be unusual in that most Bull markets start after interest rates fall below a low enough level that business conditions can return to normal. However, rates have already reached a low in the US and probably in most economies, and will rise. So the Bear will likely persist, waiting for demand to pick up again. That is likely to show itself first in the auto sector.

Have a great weekend.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
AET 46.630 +1.980 +4.4 5.9M
DELL 20.890 +0.880 +4.4 25.2M
BHP 92.300 +3.420 +3.8 5.2M
PDA 58.950 +2.070 +3.6 143.9K
CTSH 31.000 +0.890 +3 4.1M
KO 58.270 +1.620 +2.9 12.6M
STO 42.230 +1.130 +2.7 3.2M
SBUX 17.090 +0.410 +2.5 16.6M
ABB 32.950 +0.720 +2.2 6.9M
HDB 100.890 +2.120 +2.1 335.5K
COST 70.760 +1.370 +2 6.5M
UBS 29.910 +0.570 +1.9 5.8M
RY 51.160 +0.940 +1.9 601.5K
TEF 88.140 +1.500 +1.7 452.1K
CCJ 41.730 +0.640 +1.6 3.7M
WMT 56.050 +0.820 +1.5 15M
AMAT 19.170 +0.280 +1.5 15.9M
CCL 37.950 +0.520 +1.4 5.5M
OXPS 22.080 +0.300 +1.4 733.7K
ORCL 22.310 +0.300 +1.4 24.2M
CHA 67.800 +0.860 +1.3 254.8K
MFC 38.870 +0.490 +1.3 781.1K
VCP 31.720 +0.390 +1.2 381.7K
KB 61.840 +0.730 +1.2 432.6K
WAG 35.680 +0.400 +1.1 4.1M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
NTES 22.600 -1.450 -6 4.6M
ERJ 38.130 -2.230 -5.5 1.7M
PBR 72.020 -3.170 -4.2 17.2M
PAYX 34.870 -1.290 -3.6 6.1M
LEH 38.500 -1.060 -2.7 27M
GG 41.960 -1.050 -2.4 7.7M
CEO 198.190 -4.810 -2.4 478.3K
WBK 109.250 -2.330 -2.1 19.2K
SLW 14.680 -0.300 -2 3.6M
NUE 74.490 -1.520 -2 9.6M
RIMM 130.490 -2.400 -1.8 19.6M
GOL 14.740 -0.250 -1.7 583.9K
XOM 92.510 -1.160 -1.2 31.8M
IMO 60.270 -0.710 -1.2 344.9K
KSS 44.740 -0.520 -1.1 5.7M
CVX 101.910 -1.110 -1.1 17.3M
MBT 88.270 -0.810 -0.9 1.9M
VIP 35.380 -0.310 -0.9 3.6M
ECA 94.310 -0.780 -0.8 3.7M
RIO 41.440 -0.340 -0.8 17.5M
SNDK 28.750 -0.230 -0.8 7.1M
GS 177.200 -1.400 -0.8 8.6M
TCK 50.300 -0.370 -0.7 1.1M
QCOM 45.870 -0.310 -0.7 16.5M
ERTS 48.650 -0.300 -0.6 2.8M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
STO 43.310 42.230 +1.130 +2.75 3.15M
TS 62.180 61.220 +0.330 +0.54 1.68M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
WFMI 27.430 28.000 +0.000 +0.00 4.33M
GE 30.800 31.010 +0.020 +0.06 53.85M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
ERJ 38.130 -5.5 1.7M +236
NTES 22.600 -6 4.6M +201
TT 46.160 -0.3 5.7M +173
PAYX 34.870 -3.6 6.1M +151
STO 42.230 +2.7 3.2M +131
NUE 74.490 -2 9.6M +100
DEO 78.400 -0.5 1.3M +99
AET 46.630 +4.4 5.9M +73
ABB 32.950 +2.2 6.9M +67
COST 70.760 +2 6.5M +55
LEH 38.500 -2.7 27M +54
LLTC 36.510 +0.7 6.9M +41
UBS 29.910 +1.9 5.8M +40
CCL 37.950 +1.4 5.5M +35
CCJ 41.730 +1.6 3.7M +34
KO 58.270 +2.9 12.6M +32
BC 15.040 -0.3 2.2M +30
CVX 101.910 -1.1 17.3M +27
SU 143.660 -0.1 4.2M +25
TEF 88.140 +1.7 452.1K +25
GE 31.010 +0.1 53.9M +18
XOM 92.510 -1.2 31.8M +17
GFI 14.170 +1.1 6.6M +15
TCK 50.300 -0.7 1.1M +14
VIP 35.380 -0.9 3.6M +12

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
UBS Keefe Bruyette --- --- Underperform Mkt Perform
STO ING Barings --- --- Sell Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
RIMM Thomas Weisel --- --- Overweight Market Weight
LEH Ladenburg 38.00 35.00 Neutral Sell
GS Ladenburg 203.00 151.00 Neutral Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NUE UBS Securities 80.00 85.00 Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT61.8191.3564.8760.87
GGB49.8288.0290.9272.80Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
ECA94.3185.0178.8066.95Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $94.31, +0.00% chg], after a 8 day DZ)
ABB32.9584.2080.4671.53Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
SU143.6681.2282.6282.27Distribution Zone (for 11 days)
ATVI32.8580.3880.4174.51Distribution Zone (for 10 days)
RIMM130.4979.0862.3637.76Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-16 at $140.36, -7.03% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
EXC90.0879.0272.7081.30Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
PBR72.0278.4977.5364.12Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $72.02, +0.00% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
WMT56.0578.3163.7844.07
COST70.7677.9858.1441.95Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-16 at $73.27, -3.43% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
STO42.2376.8289.5289.39Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
PDA58.9575.5374.7055.66Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-05-19 at $59.94, -1.65% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
TS61.2274.3385.5482.69Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
RIO41.4474.3171.4050.40Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-21 at $41.78, -0.81% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
CVX101.9173.9582.3473.46Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
CHRW64.0973.9571.7447.17
GG41.9673.7660.0964.11
BBD22.7273.5459.7243.21
TT46.1672.9260.3643.06Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-20 at $46.53, -0.80% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
IMO60.4372.6965.9962.56Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-21 at $60.98, -0.90% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CEO198.1971.5274.1366.74Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $198.19, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
TOT89.5471.2383.6783.84Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
BHP92.3071.1874.5561.30Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-20 at $89.69, +2.91% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
NUE74.4970.4756.4131.14
MBT88.2768.2565.2680.22
LLTC36.5165.1779.0656.13
VIP35.3864.4763.5574.98
QCOM45.8764.2871.7457.48
ABX42.5656.4048.9270.99
AET46.6344.4158.0483.32

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX17.0913.6946.3465.59
BC15.0420.4535.7519.29
UBS29.9121.5532.8432.60Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-05-22 at $29.91, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WFMI28.0022.2028.0719.87Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
GOL14.7424.7836.3726.36
JCP40.5124.8442.8430.11
CCL37.9526.4037.7036.25
KSS44.7426.4444.0625.95
BDK63.8828.8433.7625.14
BMY21.9529.7641.4446.56
GE31.0133.7528.4020.98
IBN40.9137.1037.6128.76
ERJ38.1337.4935.2019.66
GS177.2037.5344.4421.21
ERTS48.6541.8337.4027.70
PAYX34.8743.0946.1924.65
DEO78.4044.9931.9128.71
IBKR30.6256.6850.3229.34


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CVX 101.91 -1.11 -1.08% 3.47% 4.59% 10.29% 9.04% 19.30% 18.85% 24.01%
KO 58.27 1.62 2.86% 2.21% 3.52% -3.29% -4.62% 0.02% -6.39% 13.19%
XOM 92.51 -1.16 -1.24% 1.33% 2.87% -0.10% -1.07% 6.13% 6.28% 11.77%
PG 65.62 0.45 0.69% -1.12% -0.46% -1.81% -9.25% -0.89% -9.19% 4.16%
PFE 19.78 0.05 0.25% -1.49% -0.95% -1.30% -13.66% -12.09% -11.50% -27.73%
CAT 82.22 -1.18 -1.41% -1.53% -0.24% 0.49% 16.41% 15.51% 21.02% 8.89%
MMM 76.64 0.52 0.68% -1.57% -0.40% -3.15% -7.34% -3.80% -5.66% -12.69%
T 39.18 0.29 0.75% -1.71% 0.82% 1.37% -4.44% 12.01% 4.62% -3.12%
WMT 56.05 0.82 1.48% -1.87% -1.94% -2.44% 19.51% 12.17% 24.94% 20.43%
JNJ 65.41 -0.32 -0.49% -1.90% -2.23% -2.91% -0.76% 3.53% -2.58% 2.88%
DD 48.43 -0.07 -0.14% -2.20% -1.82% -2.54% 10.72% 5.37% 9.20% -6.94%
MRK 39.03 -0.10 -0.26% -2.43% -0.15% -2.35% -31.97% -15.35% -30.94% -27.92%
IBM 124.70 1.22 0.99% -2.93% -0.18% 0.41% 19.11% 15.39% 21.99% 16.87%
UTX 71.84 -0.18 -0.25% -3.30% -3.00% -1.18% -4.48% -0.54% -1.29% 3.80%
VZ 37.47 0.25 0.67% -3.68% -2.04% 3.05% -13.28% 3.51% -10.68% -12.06%
MCD 58.53 -0.25 -0.43% -3.83% -2.07% -1.76% 0.74% 5.10% 2.09% 11.49%
HPQ 44.90 0.10 0.22% -3.92% -8.48% -7.14% -9.86% -5.27% -8.14% -1.49%
DIS 33.61 -0.05 -0.15% -3.94% -2.75% 5.23% 5.56% 3.19% 6.70% -7.33%
GE 31.01 -0.02 -0.06% -4.20% -4.85% -5.49% -15.64% -7.57% -16.57% -16.95%
INTC 23.88 0.22 0.93% -4.37% 2.05% 5.24% -5.80% 20.30% -3.05% 3.87%
AIG 37.81 0.35 0.93% -4.45% -14.36% -19.50% -32.84% -22.65% -26.34% -47.44%
AA 40.80 -0.90 -2.16% -4.54% 2.90% 17.07% 12.93% 11.63% 16.01% 4.75%
BA 81.41 0.22 0.27% -4.84% -3.95% -1.92% -6.01% -1.96% -6.86% -15.62%
BAC 34.73 -0.11 -0.32% -5.39% -6.96% -8.29% -14.37% -18.47% -17.58% -32.56%
MSFT 28.47 0.22 0.78% -6.50% -2.73% -10.47% -19.17% 2.71% -16.83% -7.23%
AXP 46.36 0.88 1.93% -7.02% -5.10% 2.61% -9.17% 2.89% -14.69% -27.87%
JPM 43.05 0.58 1.37%