For the industry groups, Goldminers ($XAU +3.9%) and Oil Services ($OSX +2.9%) were strong; there were no particularly weak groups.

For Cara 100 companies, Garmin (GRMN +5.4%) and Goldcorp (GG) and SanDisk (SNDK) both up +5.3%) were the leaders. Electronic Arts (ERTS -2.4%) was a loser. But, yesterday was noteworthy that 9 stocks of the Cara 100 companies hit 52-week highs.

On the deals front, CBS Corp (CBS -2.38% to 24.23) agreed to purchase CNET for $11.50/share in cash. Yahoo (YHOO) is now in a proxy war with Carl Icahn.

Today, Fannie Mae (FMN) replaced a Dec.-07 policy that required a higher down-payment if the loan was for a home in a market with declining real estate prices. Now, Fannie says it will require down-payments of between 3- and 5% for all loans that it guarantees.

Treasury yields dropped. The 30-year bond ($USB) lifted +0.80%, closing at 116.42.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed down just -$0.29/bbl to 123.82 after hitting a low on the day of 120.65 following legislation in the US Senate closing an “Enron loophole”.

There was a significant ripple during the session as the $USD dropped and $GOLD surged +15.35/oz to 881.85, but the action was short-lived and the price had been up to 888.50. The chart has shown a couple surges in the past few days soon followed by equal sell-offs.

At the end of the day yeaterday, the $USD lost -0.07% to 73.30, but the Euro also lost -0.10%, as the Yen gained +0.29% to 95.47. The Canadian Loonie was up sharply +0.40% to 100.01.

Today the price of precious metals has started to fly in the past two hours (those prices in brackets): spot gold +896.65 (885.6), palladium 439 (433); platinum 2132.5 (2100); and silver 16.92 (16.80).

June Crude Oil has also popped +$2.57/bbl to 126.42. So far, the Euro is quiet at 1.5432. The June Dow 30 futures are up about +28 to 13024.

---

Comments & Outlook

Yesterday I stated: “The US Industrial Production report showing plunging manufacturing output is the dominant force this morning. Watch UPS and FDX.”

I said that because industrial production/manufacturing is probably 20% of the total US economy. When you see a bad economic number like that, knowing its impact on package delivery, you can anticipate weakness in the UPS and FDX stocks.

At the end of the day UPS and FDX closed down -0.34% and -0.23% respectively, which was not much, but the S&P 500 was up over +1%, and was strong across all sectors. Had the broad market been flat or down on the day, particularly if the price of oil lifted that day, the UPS and FDX stocks would probably have fallen by well over -1%.

As your knowledge of market relationships grows, you will come to have 100 or 200 of these simple analytical tools to try to make an educated sense of market trends and cycles. You are looking for confirmations or anomalies. Possibly you have been waiting for a trade. If I was looking to buy some FDX stock, say, I would be hoping for a weak industrial production/manufacturing number so that I could buy into weakness. Vice versa, if I wanted to sell that stock, I would have been hoping for strong data in that report.

Performance improvement in your trading will come as your knowledge of markets increases and becomes second nature to you.

As it does for Crude Oil ($WTIC), the chart for $GOLD looks susceptible to a pull-back and yet seem to get sudden, quick moves to the upside as both did again in the past two hours.

$WTIC and $GOLD, however, do not necessarily have to track together. This year, for example, they have not, as this chart shows.

These are difficult markets to assess. The commodity price data (high cost to businesses and consumers) and the weakening macro-economic data have been for the most part very negative, and, in business if not the equity market, the banks, house-builders, retailers, manufacturers, and airlines are struggling to find stability. Besides, there are hyped-up presidential election campaigns underway. Nonetheless, it’s always a good time to view the markets as a learning laboratory.

Have a great day.

---

Links & Charts

---

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

---

Knobias Cara100 Tables

---

Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
ATVI	33.49	89.17	87.36	88.45	Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
GGB	45.99	88.89	88.08	75.49	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
SYT	61.81	86.07	64.89	65.00
ECA	91.81	85.76	76.57	76.31	Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
SU	129.46	85.00	75.84	78.14	Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
RIMM	140.71	82.50	81.00	69.93	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-14 at $138.56, +1.55% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
RIO	42.20	82.15	76.75	69.83
PDA	59.55	81.78	78.21	69.86	Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $57.80, +3.03% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
PBR	68.27	79.63	73.14	73.00	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
WMT	57.12	79.58	75.39	52.14
BHP	93.42	75.99	77.63	77.01	Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
NUE	81.44	75.89	85.63	63.48	Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-05-09 at $78.41, +3.86% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CEO	193.70	74.93	71.00	75.26	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
ABB	32.44	74.93	78.98	81.97	Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
STO	39.87	74.45	84.68	76.10	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
TT	46.65	74.38	68.85	72.47
BBD	23.07	74.13	62.89	53.99	Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $23.65, -2.45% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
COST	74.45	73.97	77.39	78.67	Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
NTES	24.60	73.52	73.37	79.97	Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
CHRW	65.47	70.75	82.00	61.22	Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-05-07 at $63.79, +2.63% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
CVX	98.49	70.42	78.00	77.79	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
MICC	120.23	69.94	71.48	67.47
TS	57.88	69.86	81.25	76.27
LLTC	37.04	68.41	86.72	80.09
VCP	33.15	66.98	61.28	70.49
TOT	85.28	65.67	75.12	69.93
TEF	89.91	65.13	62.86	71.95
TCK	50.18	65.03	68.15	75.42
DIS	34.99	61.51	76.79	72.68
INTC	24.97	59.68	79.25	83.31
ADBE	42.00	57.07	75.22	80.07
RY	50.71	56.35	64.29	78.26
DOW	42.50	56.24	78.08	84.82
INFY	46.58	54.80	69.08	71.74
OXPS	23.06	45.41	53.64	73.53
SNDK	33.10	45.24	74.07	88.43
JCP	46.32	43.21	62.73	73.41
WAG	36.56	38.50	53.09	72.22
DELL	20.63	37.66	58.59	81.29

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	16.07	15.04	32.60	44.22
WFMI	29.12	31.12	30.61	23.72

---

International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

---

Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

---

Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

---

Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

---

Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

---

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AA	42.74	0.74	1.76%	7.79%	23.10%	20.16%	18.30%	19.65%	17.64%	8.78%
INTC	24.97	1.13	4.74%	6.71%	7.21%	12.94%	-1.50%	24.17%	-2.19%	13.45%
HD	29.53	0.41	1.41%	5.77%	-1.14%	5.01%	13.10%	7.30%	1.90%	-22.90%
MSFT	30.45	0.52	1.74%	4.03%	3.57%	4.21%	-13.54%	7.14%	-9.80%	-1.46%
IBM	128.46	0.94	0.74%	2.83%	3.92%	4.37%	22.71%	21.01%	24.00%	22.54%
T	39.86	0.25	0.63%	2.57%	-0.20%	6.10%	-2.78%	5.23%	1.24%	-1.31%
MRK	40.00	0.17	0.43%	2.33%	2.70%	1.99%	-30.28%	-15.84%	-30.94%	-23.98%
JPM	47.02	1.11	2.42%	2.11%	-4.53%	4.21%	11.50%	8.72%	8.02%	-9.63%
AXP	49.86	0.36	0.73%	2.07%	-2.86%	11.54%	-2.31%	10.53%	-14.39%	-20.88%
MCD	60.86	0.42	0.69%	1.82%	-0.10%	6.16%	4.75%	10.05%	6.44%	18.70%
VZ	38.90	-0.05	-0.13%	1.70%	-1.07%	8.51%	-9.97%	2.83%	-9.62%	-8.56%
XOM	91.30	1.39	1.55%	1.52%	1.78%	-2.23%	-2.36%	6.95%	8.06%	12.54%
CAT	83.50	0.75	0.91%	1.31%	1.40%	6.25%	18.22%	19.37%	19.75%	9.85%
KO	57.01	0.47	0.83%	1.28%	-3.52%	-6.05%	-6.68%	-2.98%	-7.97%	8.67%
DIS	34.99	0.19	0.55%	1.24%	5.08%	13.68%	9.89%	7.69%	7.99%	-2.64%
MMM	77.86	0.13	0.17%	1.18%	0.03%	-3.46%	-5.86%	-2.61%	-2.25%	-9.64%
CVX	98.49	0.77	0.79%	1.08%	3.74%	7.07%	5.38%	17.81%	17.03%	22.00%
BA	85.55	-0.14	-0.16%	0.93%	0.16%	11.23%	-1.24%	0.43%	-6.34%	-9.32%
PG	66.36	0.86	1.31%	0.67%	-1.00%	-1.78%	-8.23%	0.09%	-7.62%	6.91%
PFE	20.08	0.02	0.10%	0.55%	-1.76%	-1.57%	-12.35%	-10.08%	-13.78%	-25.90%
DD	49.52	-0.06	-0.12%	0.39%	1.19%	-3.30%	13.21%	8.86%	9.15%	-2.71%
UTX	74.29	-0.87	-1.16%	0.31%	-0.28%	4.94%	-1.22%	3.86%	0.46%	8.45%
WMT	57.12	-0.33	-0.57%	-0.07%	-1.64%	0.79%	21.79%	15.53%	23.64%	19.95%
JNJ	66.68	-0.13	-0.19%	-0.33%	-1.67%	1.40%	1.17%	6.01%	-0.30%	7.86%