The Banks ($XBK) and Retailers ($XBD), down -1.5% and -1.9% respectively on the session did not rally after the DJIA bounced higher off what appears to be key support at 12800. The rally leaders were the inflation-beneficiaries Energy (XLE +2.0%) and Basic Materials (XLB +1.7%).

The strongest industry groups were the Goldminers ($XAU +4.2%) and Oil Services ($OSX +3.3%). The Retailers ($RLX -1.9%) and Banks ($BKX -1.5%) were weak.

On the US economics front, weekly unemployment claims were less than anticipated.

The US long bond ($USB was stronger again ($USB +0.88%) at $115.75.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained a further +0.16/bbl to close at 123.69, after hitting a record high of 124.61, in agitated trading. Earlier this morning about 7:20am ET, Crude was up +2.02/bbl to 125.71, a fresh all-time record.

$GOLD lifted +10.90/oz to 882.10, and is stronger again this morning.

Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly very weak overnight. Australia was the exception (All Ords +0.75% to 5844). Shanghai (-1.2%), Hong Kong (-1.5%), India’s Sensex (-2.0%) and Japan’s Nikkei (-2.1%) sold off. Toyota (TM) took another hit.

In trading at mid-session in Europe, the losses at 7:30am ET were for the FTSE -1.3% to 6189; the French CAC -2.2% to 4943; and the German DAX -1.2% to 6986.

The June Dow 30 futures are up slightly to 12848.

June Crude Oil futures are very strong at 125.68 and the June Euro also stronger at 1.5435. The June DJIA is down -79 to 12745, indicating a weak open, noting that the support had been at 12800.

Spot prices for precious metals are a little stronger again due to the further strengthening of the Euro and Yen. The Cdn Dollar (Loonie) is on fire.

Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver are 885.60, 432, 2069 (yes, that’s not a mistake!!), and 16.92 respectively.

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Comments & Outlook

Even the mighty suffer downturns when economies slow their growth trends. Toyota (TM) is in that situation.

Just as markets closed Thursday, Toyota said its net profit in the fiscal fourth quarter dropped 28 percent due to a strong yen and sluggish U.S. sales. It also projected this fiscal year's profit will tumble 27 percent — which would be its first decline in annual earnings in seven years.

Caution must be urged when the strongest manufacturers and strongest banks are suffering. Funny money printed by government can only jack up the prices of shares for so long. The key here will be the US Retailers ($RLX).

The $RLX in recent days lifted only so far as it hit resistance of the 200-day MA, and then fell back to now where it is sitting atop the crucially important 50-day MA.

If tax rebates, which put billions of USD of basically found money into the hands of shoppers in the US, can’t spur the Retailers to trade well above the 200/50-d moving averages, then one should reasonably expect that rallies will be brief opportunities to sell stock into.

But, as we all know, the driver here is standing at the fuel pump with close to $4.00/gallon. So, traders must also be watching the Crude Oil ($WTIC) prices for a break.

With the 50-d MA for $WTIC at about $110, the current price falling -$15 to the first technical support ought to provide some relief to the Retailers. OPEC seems to think the oil companies are the problem, and the oil companies will tell you it’s the speculators. The speculators will say it’s all about inflation and the $USD.

It’s a problem for the economy, but we have our eye on market prices.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
GGB	42.54	83.15	84.21	70.10	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
SYT	60.25	81.10	60.63	52.71
ATVI	27.70	79.24	61.91	68.93
ECA	85.78	79.24	70.00	67.27
NUE	81.87	79.14	88.07	77.23	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
RIO	40.01	77.98	71.52	58.42
TT	46.22	75.84	62.04	45.97
BHP	86.70	75.59	71.55	62.30
PDA	55.60	73.73	70.41	54.13	Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $57.80, -3.81% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
RIMM	131.18	73.53	74.88	62.28	Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-05-06 at $132.10, -0.70% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
WMT	57.16	73.07	74.65	53.04	Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-30 at $57.98, -1.41% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
SU	123.99	72.52	72.24	74.44	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
STO	38.94	71.44	83.16	81.11	Distribution Zone (for 5 days)
ABB	31.31	71.27	75.43	73.44	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
CVX	97.44	70.59	75.38	68.69
CHRW	64.34	67.71	80.02	55.57	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-05-07 at $63.79, +0.86% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
VIP	33.54	64.77	58.10	80.84
LLTC	36.20	64.61	84.00	69.36
TS	53.91	63.70	73.11	53.38
DIS	34.56	62.02	74.73	80.03
DOW	41.27	55.58	72.58	72.72
CCJ	39.98	51.15	61.83	79.25

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	15.85	16.04	29.18	31.42
DELL	18.84	27.30	33.65	42.49
UBS	31.05	27.67	36.26	23.97
GRMN	42.32	28.19	23.44	39.79	Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-05-01 at $43.12, -1.86% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BC	16.22	28.53	44.36	41.75
PBR	63.78	35.57	23.32	12.11
DNA	68.32	37.28	29.16	36.50
KB	62.63	37.67	47.13	30.00
WHR	71.83	38.17	30.44	28.06
MFC	36.40	46.49	41.39	28.19
PG	65.92	49.14	36.47	29.81
KO	56.29	50.01	28.16	12.08
NKE	64.80	64.38	49.14	29.27

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AA	39.65	1.56	4.10%	14.20%	13.77%	9.80%	9.74%	17.45%	5.28%	0.38%
DIS	34.56	-0.14	-0.40%	3.78%	8.20%	10.24%	8.54%	7.60%	2.77%	-5.44%
CVX	97.44	2.16	2.27%	2.63%	5.45%	8.75%	4.26%	22.94%	9.26%	21.72%
HPQ	49.06	0.41	0.84%	2.14%	1.47%	5.35%	-1.51%	17.14%	-1.76%	9.00%
IBM	124.92	0.78	0.63%	1.06%	0.59%	5.17%	19.32%	20.96%	17.73%	20.94%
DD	49.33	0.79	1.63%	0.80%	-0.72%	-0.62%	12.78%	8.56%	3.77%	-4.33%
INTC	23.40	0.23	0.99%	0.47%	3.13%	5.98%	-7.69%	15.44%	-9.76%	5.64%
MRK	39.09	0.08	0.21%	0.36%	-2.20%	-6.28%	-31.86%	-12.22%	-28.63%	-25.17%
XOM	89.93	1.11	1.25%	0.26%	-2.88%	0.42%	-3.83%	10.06%	0.57%	10.51%
CAT	82.42	0.79	0.97%	0.09%	0.73%	8.86%	16.69%	21.19%	13.79%	12.24%
MSFT	29.27	0.06	0.21%	-0.44%	-7.96%	0.55%	-16.89%	2.49%	-15.75%	-4.81%
UTX	74.06	1.03	1.41%	-0.59%	1.87%	3.08%	-1.53%	3.80%	-0.86%	8.37%
BA	84.76	0.21	0.25%	-0.76%	2.12%	8.07%	-2.15%	6.84%	-11.97%	-10.03%
MMM	76.95	0.27	0.35%	-1.14%	-2.75%	-4.23%	-6.96%	-2.05%	-7.10%	-9.24%
JNJ	66.90	-0.01	-0.01%	-1.34%	-0.70%	0.86%	1.50%	7.85%	3.58%	5.02%
WMT	57.16	0.33	0.58%	-1.57%	-0.50%	4.57%	21.88%	17.23%	31.04%	18.84%
GE	32.59	0.02	0.06%	-1.60%	-0.67%	-11.32%	-11.34%	-3.69%	-16.48%	-12.11%
PG	65.92	0.12	0.18%	-1.66%	-1.36%	-6.07%	-8.84%	1.38%	-6.95%	6.75%
MCD	59.77	0.39	0.66%	-1.89%	0.32%	7.02%	2.87%	7.42%	0.67%	21.19%
PFE	19.97	0.05	0.25%	-2.30%	-0.35%	-4.54%	-12.83%	-10.45%	-13.59%	-26.98%
T	38.86	0.04	0.10%	-2.70%	0.54%	1.73%	-5.22%	6.85%	-1.22%	-1.04%
VZ	38.25	-0.03	-0.08%	-2.72%	5.20%	6.75%	-11.48%	5.02%	-10.48%	-5.83%
KO	56.29	-0.74	-1.30%	-4.74%	-6.57%	-8.22%	-7.86%	-5.00%	-8.43%	6.07%
AXP	48.85	0.15	0.31%	-4.83%	8.12%	8.41%	-4.29%	8.60%	-12.92%	-22.79%
BAC	37.33	-0.67	-1.76%	-5.23%	-1.43%	-0.96%	-7.96%	-11.71%	-14.18%	-27.37%
JPM	46.05	-0.52	-1.12%	-6.50%	-1.96%	4.99%	9.20%	5.09%	8.07%	-12.20%
C	24.30	-0.18	-0.74%	-6.50%	-5.67%	2.49%	-15.98%	-6.65%	-26.14%	-54.77%
HD	27.92	-0.64	-2.24%	-6.53%	-3.46%	-1.62%	6.93%	-0.18%	-4.02%	-27.72%
AIG	44.15	-0.93	-2.06%	-8.31%	-6.00%	-3.09%	-21.58%	-12.88%