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May 14, 2008
Bill Cara's Community Chat, Wed., May 14, 2008, 9:03am ET
In 4Q07 I became concerned that the credit reporting agency model was broken, so I dropped Moody’s (MCO) from the Cara 100. Now I have to believe that the so-called independent news and independent auditor models are also broken. It seems that the financial world is now one big moral hazard, with everybody is bought-and-paid-for.
As to the independence of news reporting, I pointed out over six months ago—right at the top of the market--that the Thomson Financial and Standard & Poor’s financial information reporting services had seemingly crossed the line by opining that corporate profits for the tech sector would likely increase at over +20%. I asked, “What are these guys smoking?”
The problem is that I no longer know whether Thomson and S&P are credit reporting, news reporting, information services, financial analysts, or maybe even banks. But, I do know they are no longer independent and objective. Just like everything else I see in the market and the media these days; they rely on and are sycophants to the banking system. They have become spin-masters.
Look at the set-up yesterday involving a European lender, and the softball follow-through this morning.
Sharewatch - May 13, 6:13am ET
BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - Franco-Belgian financial services group Dexia SA will post first-quarter results Wednesday before the market opens which show a decline in net profit due to mark-to-market adjustments -- though analysts say it will be the last quarter affected by this and results will recover in the second half of the year.
Thomson Financial News 05.14.08, 2:52 AM ET
Dexia's FSA swings to Q1 net loss; sees credit spreads, Q2 outlook improving. FSA, the US monoline insurer, swung to a first quarter loss on the back of steeper than anticipated provisions, though the unit's CEO said mark-to-market adjustments are beginning to turn positive again.
Bloomberg.com - May 14, 4:19am ET
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- BNP Paribas SA , France's largest bank, ING Groep NV , the biggest Dutch financial-services company, and Dexia SA , the world's largest lender to local governments, reported lower first-quarter earnings as loan losses increased.
Then the media will report that if these (European) companies can’t blame their problems on the actions of a young “rogue” trader, it is the US sub-prime debt market at fault. Really?
For starters, the credit derivatives market blew up and is the cause of bankers’ problems all over the world. This is not a problem that will go away overnight. But the banks don’t want to admit to that.
As for auditing, we all saw the joke that once proud profession has become after the details of the Enron debacle came out. You think these accountants would learn from that sorry experience. But here we are with the Big Four accounting firms turning a blind eye to the bookkeeping entries called provisions for doubtful accounts, bad debts, loan losses, whatever. The banks call it write-downs, and the media goes along with that.
My problem with that is that everybody knows these so-called provisions should in fact be write-offs, but if the banks were to do that there would no longer be a solvent bank. The bank would be bankrupt.
And why do the auditors permit this charade? Their fees are paid by the banks! No banks; no client, and no fees.
Let me put the whole concept in simple terms. Say you are on holiday and going out for the evening to a casino. Knowing there is a likelihood of losing, you ‘provide’ for those losses by setting aside $100 or $500 or whatever. That’s a provision. When you leave the casino, however, and your pockets are empty, you no longer have a provision; you are busted, broke, cleaned out. Only an insane person would not consider it a write-off.
Yet, the banks, which are in the same situation, refuse to admit to the world that these securitized real estate mortgages are no longer asset-backed. The houses, if not already demolished, are empty, the fixtures and appliances have been stripped. Nobody is paying the principal, interest or taxes, and there never will be. Even the land underneath the buildings may have no value because of the high legal costs and physical demolition and clearing costs. In a 100-unit condo or 100-house subdivision where all the owners have walked away, unless almost all of them are good enough to be fixed up and re-sold by the banks, they are all worthless.
So, what does an auditor do when they need to retain the client? They close their eyes.
Reminds me of my years as a young auditor for a Big Four firm (Big Eight back then). I was senior auditor of a large steel manufacturer that also processed scrap steel. Every year the audit files showed huge discrepancies in inventory in the scrap yard—enough of a discrepancy by the way to facilitate the company making a profit whenever management really needed it, like for instance when management was looking for a bank loan or seeking a performance bonus.
My solution, then, was to bring along a Polaroid camera (a big deal back then) to snap photos of each pile so that the file could substantiate whether there were 1000 tons or 100 tons of a certain type of scrap metal. But in the middle of my picture taking session, the audit partner telephoned me to say I was upsetting the client and needed to put the camera away. That was the day, in my mid-20’s, I knew the world was crooked.
And after five years of that career, I decided to hang my own shingle, not an auditor, but as a management consultant for doctors. After I announced it, one of my peers, like me a chartered accountant, actually said to me that he had discussed with his father whether or not I should take him on as a client, but they rejected me because (absolutely true story) I would never agree to two sets of books—one for the banker and one for the tax man.
So, all my life I watched this stuff and shook my head. The problem now though is that the deceit is no longer small potatoes—now it’s the banks, auditing firms, credit review agencies, newspapers, legislators, right up to Secretary Moral Hazard and his peers, all bought-and-paid-for.
The result is that the capital market is no longer a vehicle for pricing value; it's one for story-tellers.
The good news is that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is soon to introduce XBRL to the public company filing requirements. I hope you learn about and support the SEC XBRL initiative. More than anything I hope the SEC gives open and free access to this data the instant they receive it. Real-time XBRL-based financial information exchange in the hands of the public simultaneously with those on the Sell-side will lead to accountability, transparency, more analysis and less manipulation (synthesis).
XBRL is a big step forward, but the accounting principle of garbage-in, garbage-out still applies. We still need to push independent auditors to live up to their public mandate, so that we can rely on the data that is filed.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 14, 2008 09:03:56 AM | Category: Community Chat
Discourse
craig- should see a 2.5% gap up in CAF...
TNX backing down a bit...skepticism re inflation is just what you want to see right now...hoping it takes months before the short bond trade gets crowded...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 9:16 AM [link]
Re: Reality Check
The best way to perform a reality check on any market is via the Commodity Futures Trading Charts, which will give you an accurate assessment of how certain markets are faring. I usually use weekly charts and the money flow to portray how seasonality is faring in any market available through this website.
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
What we are seeing is the money flow in Gold futures has been very low for an extended period, while we should be carving out a new high, we are in a corrective period after and out of season runup.
So the "summer doldrums are here" is a fairly apt comment, though our doldrums are probably over-extended, as they have lasted longer than the previous correction in May 2006. This shows that the psychology around gold prices is that the gold market is "done for the year."
Silver and Platinum are bucking the summer doldrum trend with a continuous onset of money into those metals.(using Chaikin Money Flow on a weekly basis)
Not too curiously, the Yen also experienced an out of season runup and correction. Gold prices will depend on the performance of the Yen against the dollar and the €. These are now on out of season trends, while the dollar is well within its seasonality.
Oil, on the other hand is now set for a seasonal run up and is just at the beginning of its seasonal trend while setting new highs. Its very clear that oil is perceived as the stable commodity of value, while gold is the volatile unsound value play. This outlook will not typically reverse until oil price correct sharply.
Just look at any market on a weekly basis using the commodity futures trading charts, and the seasonality is set out very clearly and may challenge some of the notions or solidify assumptions on which way the markets are heading on a seasonal basis.
F6
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 9:19 AM [link]
What economist Michael T. Darda of MKM Partners had to say about today's CPI report...
"From the CPI report, “In April, the index for petroleum-based energy fell 1.6%, offsetting a 2.5% increase in the index for energy services. The transportation index declined 0.7% in April, reflecting a 2.0% decrease in the index for gasoline.” And to top it off, the index of commodity prices rose just 0.1%.
Huh? Gasoline prices rose by about 10% in April. Virtually every index of commodity prices is near all-time highs (and up about 30% since the beginning of the year). I’m not sure what the BLS is smoking here, but it must be pretty strong stuff."
Posted by: fireworks
at
May 14, 2008 9:24 AM [link]
Cara 100 Update:
Target Raised:
ECA - $94 to $103 @ RBC
Target Lowered:
CCJ - $49 to $47 @ RBC
WFMI - $48 to $42 @ RBC
WFMI - $50 to $41 @ UBS
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
May 14, 2008 9:24 AM [link]
2nd: Yeah, watched Shanghai overnight, saw CAF this AM.
I'm watching for profit taking....
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2008 9:29 AM [link]
back in SMN at 29.15...
opening TBT at 70.01...
thinking about adding to CAF...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 9:41 AM [link]
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 9:44 AM [link]
Re: CPI report
I've always believed that government economic numbers have been "massaged" for political purposes.
I now believe that they are outright fabrications.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
May 14, 2008 9:49 AM [link]
caution re TBT- according to the Profunds prospectus, this is another 2x inverse ETF that resets DAILY, and depending on daily volatility/direction, long-term tracking may actually be quite accurate, but more likely to either move in your favor (giving you a better than 2x return), or against you (giving you a better than 2x hit)...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 9:59 AM [link]
Bill,
You are right on the money today. Just look at the BS CPI numbers and you'll know the Labor Department is bought and paid for as well.
Anyone can tell how compromised the ratings agencies are when they continually affirm triple A ratings for MBAI and ABK when anyone with a brain can see both companies are completely insolvent.
I can't even imagine how the ratings agencies can hang onto any credibility when time after time they only downgrade a company after everyone else knows and the stock price has already crashed.
It's no wonder that foreign Investment in China is up 49% this year. At least investors aren't 100% sure the Chinese market is crooked already.
I'm just glad to have my eyes wide open and if the market doesn't become more honest and reasonable I'll take my money elsewhere.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
May 14, 2008 10:04 AM [link]
CNBC is doing a segment on "Boomer angst". Want to see some real boomer angst? Just wait until all these boomers try to sell their overpriced subprime houses all at the same time and realize the only potential buyers are a bunch of service sector generations x, y and z service-sector wage-slaves and a bunch of Mexican illegal immigrant lawn cutters whose illegal status will of course have been resolved to their benefit long before then). Viva los Estados Unidos!
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 10:23 AM [link]
Rob- the stock market(s) SHOULD be about investing/participating in the growth of a company, an industry, a sector, a part of the global economy, and that's how it's sold to the investor...the reality has been to trade the price swings, which are determined by the collective psychology of traders, and to an unknown extent by manipulation...i don't like it any more than you do, but for now we can try to help one another navigate the terrain the way it is...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 10:25 AM [link]
ETFC - reported another solid month of account growth and trading growth. The turnaround story here is firmly intact. I believe this is one of the best (albeit speculative) opportunities in the market today.
Posted by: teamonfuego
at
May 14, 2008 10:34 AM [link]
sharkie,
Speaking of CNBC, they had a segment on California home owners who want their property taxes reduced. One owner said that their $1 million home had dropped almost 50% in value. Apparently 70% of the new assessed properties will have lower taxes moving forward, if I heard correctly. This will happen nationwide, IMO.
Big Picture: lower tax revenue = lower $USD = higher price of gold. A slowing economy will exacerbate the issue.
Posted by: g034
at
May 14, 2008 10:35 AM [link]
Re: Lower Muncipal Tax Revenue
What this means is a strong probability that muncipal bonds will drop in price as their yields pop, since a municipality can only service their debt through property taxes.
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 10:41 AM [link]
can someone enlighten me as to why 'important' numbers such as the monthly CPI figure (let's assume it is not a total fiction) is published to only one decimal point?
a reported figure of 0.2 % is greeted with the comment that the market was expecting 0.3%
in reality the 0.2 could have been 0.24 and rounded down, whereas a figure of 0.26 would have to be shown as 0.3.
i would agree that one decimal point accuracy is fine for a 12 month comparison but cant the monthly be more accurately(honestly) stated given the media hype attached to these numbers?
[Bill Cara note: I have long surmised that single-digit rounding is done precisely to spin the media.]
Posted by: robertcw
at
May 14, 2008 10:46 AM [link]
Did you guys see the new RIMM phone, i doubt it will stop Apple. Scroll down the post
http://wallastoninvestments.com/the-sp-500-still-stuck-in-the-1400
Posted by: Rob Wallaston
at
May 14, 2008 10:55 AM [link]
craig: interest rates/$USD up-> commodities down...
china up through august...
those are the only themes running through my head...we could easily bounce back and forth for awhile, but i think traders are looking for something to hang their hat on...overall negative sentiment right now probably means we go up ST?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 10:59 AM [link]
Just some supporting data on Bill's morning comments...
"U.S. foreclosure filings climbed 65 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in April from a year earlier as rates on adjustable mortgages increased and vacated homes added to a glut of unsold homes, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
Median prices for a single- family home fell 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest drop in 29 years, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. There were 4.06 million U.S. homes for sale at the end of March, 40,000 more than the prior month, the Realtors association said in an April 22 report.
``Inventory levels have soared to unprecedented levels'' Brian Fabbri, chief North American economist for BNP Paribas, said in an interview. ``Builders and homeowners have to lower their prices significantly to sell that inventory out.''
Bank repossessions jumped 145 percent in April from a year earlier to 54,574, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac. The company has database of more than 1.5 million properties and monitors foreclosure filings including defaults notices, auction sale notices and bank seizures.
Banks will seize about 60,000 properties a month through December, when about 1 million U.S. homes, or a quarter of all homes for sale, may be bank-owned, Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's executive vice president of marketing, said in an interview."
Posted by: fireworks
at
May 14, 2008 10:59 AM [link]
g034,
What you say is both right and wrong, all at the same time. It it true that the assessed values of homes will be challenged by mortgage payers going forward (I hesitate to call them homeowners, as never in history have so many owned so little, but to continue)
Where you are wrong is, the thirst for property tax money is indeed so tremendous on the local level that the mill rates will wimply be increased to compensate for the lower assessed values. We all know about markets, right? It's no accident that the masses have purchased masssive amounts of overpriced housing at PRECISELY THE WRONG TIME IN HISTORY. The 50 plus year post-war housing boom ended the day of 911, and no one bothered to tell Johnny subprime.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 11:04 AM [link]
simply, not wimply.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 11:05 AM [link]
Why don't they simply lower spending? These are the times that the political system shows its defficiencies.
Posted by: g034
at
May 14, 2008 11:08 AM [link]
Sharkie - Go bite their legs off, especially those EVIL aliens who mow our lawns, wash our dishes, and haul our trash !
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2008 11:08 AM [link]
It seems to me that sentiment is very positive, with put/call ratios plunging back to December levels and VIX at October levels. Risk has gone up markedly in my opinion, although the direction of the next move is anyone's guess.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 11:10 AM [link]
moab
Is there a chart for the put/call ratios I can access?
Posted by: Zeto
at
May 14, 2008 11:12 AM [link]
Jock,
I wasn't trying to disparage Mexican illegal aliens, although I would personally prefer it if they were not here. They seem typically like very nice people. I absolutely do not however support illegal anything, immigration included, and I do not believe that there are jobs that Americans won't do, and in fact, many of those lawn cutting jobs WERE an important first-rung on the economic ladder, facilitating first car purchases and college payments by legal, American teenagers. Please don't miss my thesis, which was to describe a market imbalance that I perceive going forward in residential housing. If I have offended you in any way, I apologize.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 11:18 AM [link]
Put/call ratios:
Also, the banks are not participating in this rally. They are on a ledge on the hourly charts.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 11:19 AM [link]
moab
Thanks!
Posted by: Zeto
at
May 14, 2008 11:21 AM [link]
In a past life, part of my job entailed travelling around Salah ad Din province in Iraq, serving in Uncle Sam's army and carrying bags full of confiscated Iraqi U.S. Dollars.
I carried the money for my commander, who negotiated and made hiring and firing decisions on local builders and contractors who were to be part of the "rebuilding effort."
Back then, I was fed more lamb than I ever knew existed and I came to eventually enjoy dealing with the more crooked and roguish contractors and builders, because you could always depend on them to be dishonest and deceitful and one could adjust his actions accordingly.
Now, years later, out of the service and with capital to place at risk in the markets, I'm fed more bullshit than I ever knew existed. At least there was no charade of "integrity" in the reconstruction market of Salah ad Din province circa 2003-2004. Shame on our government and press for the state of our capital markets today.
Posted by: Jagvocate
at
May 14, 2008 11:21 AM [link]
updated TA on the JR. Gold (TSX-V) and gold (GLD)
ratio. breakout in progress from what i can see, but may be some time before the damage done to Junior's is recovered.
http://jglobal.blogspot.com/2008/05/jr-gold-stocks-and-gold.html
Dr. Cosa, great work on your blog. From my observations, the juniors have bottomed and are just now waking from their very long slumber. A few of them have already perked up over the past few days. Granted, we have seen these false runs before but the present oversold conditions are at extreme levels. What is especially encouraging is that the juniors seem to be unreactive to the NY COMEX gold/silver take-downs lately. Usually, they would get hammered under the same conditions. This tells me only hardcore longs are left and they ain't selling no matter what.
Also, great piece on the media spin too. It is nice to see that more and more people are able to see through the smoke and mirrors.
All the best - Fireworks
Posted by: fireworks
at
May 14, 2008 11:42 AM [link]
This month's Harper's magazine has an article about changes that the U.S.government has made in how it calculates the CPI, GDP, and unemployment numbers over the recent decades, with the result being that negative changes in the economy are increasingly masked or under-reported.
Posted by: L-E
at
May 14, 2008 11:44 AM [link]
2nd,
I agree totally. I guess I'm just wishing for a simpler and more honest time and worrying about how the world will be when my kids grow up.
I do believe that average people are starting to wake up to the problems in the system. I also believe many of the problems can be fixed with honest leadership.
Let's start with the banking system. If the FED was more honest they would allow the imprudent banks and brokerages to fail and use their balance sheet to support the prudent banks' growth to fill the shoes of the bankrupt entities. They would also end the interconnected derivative world, where if a small brokerage fails, the entire system fails.
Just more of my day-dreaming. Now back to prices right? I'm thinking we're reaching maximum complacency with this rally. I'm getting ready to short DIA again if it breaks 13K.
Still holding NEM puts and DUG calls betting on commodities falling eventually and COF puts because they deserve it.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
May 14, 2008 11:46 AM [link]
Today's CPI report is practically Soviet in it's propagandizing. Gasoline costs fell in April? Who do you believe, the CPI or your lying eyes? I am also reminded of Goebbel's "big lie". Repeat it enough and it becomes truth; the bigger the lie the better.
The sad part is that traders are falling for it. Are they that dumb or just playing the game?
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 12:02 PM [link]
Rob- i've taken my share of hits on the playground (some pretty good ones, too)...getting pissed isn't as effective as getting up and learning to play the same game, right...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 12:04 PM [link]
J.P.Morgan to layoff thousands...Developing.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 12:16 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Finger Lakes ... Start with the FED by eliminating it along with the IRS! Put in a flat tax for all ... CORPS and INDIVIDUALS and FOREIGN CORPS and FOREIGN INDIVIDUALS. This will be administered by the US TREASURY directly.
By doing this we eliminate the corrupt US BANKERS and HB&B and we also eliminate the CPAs and ARTHUR ANDERSONS of the World. The rest of the corrupt players like the US media will follow suit since their "golden goose" will have been cooked!
To inact such legislation would only take one day! Like the single day it took Boris Yeltsin to stand on top of a Russian tank and blast a hole into the headquarters of the Communist Party!
If you doubt it would take one day to change then you are brainwashed! It has already taken us 95 years to get the point of realizing we need a "change" ... A few more bankrupt banks and bankrupt home borrowers and we're there! BANG ... there's the tank ... now who will be the new BORIS? Lets hope this BORIS will be sober!!! HA!!!
F6 “since a municipality can only service their debt through property taxes.”
Not all municipal bonds are financed by property taxes. Some are financed by airport fees, tollway revenue, sewer fees and water revenue for example.
There are opportunities in municpals, but you have to look for them and recognize the risk. Recent postings about high muni risk by myself and onlineaces (if recall correctly) referenced Jefferson County, AL which had invested county revenue in derivatives, sold to them by (who else) HB&B, to finance their bonds. Those bonds definitely have a high yield for obvious reasons, but also have high risk. Can’t recall the insurer, perhaps self-insured, but don’t think the monolines will be able to come to their rescue either.
IMO, water/sewer revenue muni bonds may get thrown out with the bath water and could offer opportunity. Afterall, what will one do without water?
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 14, 2008 12:25 PM [link]
It would appear to me that the only good model for auditors is to be paid directly by the owners and lenders, rather than by the entity being audited.
Posted by: Quentusrex
at
May 14, 2008 12:30 PM [link]
COF Capital One Financial in the red. Good short candidate for when the market turns.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 12:34 PM [link]
Sharkie -
I understand immigrants weren't your main point. Just that immigrants are caught in a somewhat tougher situation than the boomers -- literally trying to feed their families back home. (NAFTA has destroyed Mexican agriculture!)
And, for perspective, do you realize that the previous waves of immigrants via Ellis Isand weren't "documented" either! They just came, and in those days the US welcomed "poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free". Now, we consider them criminals!
Given limited funds for law-enforcement, Gov't should stop raiding meat-packing plants, and start pursuing SERIOUS crimes, like Wall St. manipulations, Halliburton war profiteering, bad air violations that damage public health, etc.
IMHO
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2008 12:36 PM [link]
Re: Municipal Bonds
Thank you Seamus on a detailed comment. More than likely derivative swaps attached to municipal bonds are increasing due to the decline in credit derivatives attached to them. Likely they represent 10X leverage of the value of municipal bonds at a minimum. So I presume somebody like muncipal bond insurers would be in hot water and unable to underwrite the obligations. At the very least, municipal bonds would lose their investment grade.
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 12:40 PM [link]
commodity shorts must be getting squeezed hard...i only entered SMN this morning and already feeling the heat...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 1:09 PM [link]
n2s- you made a good move adding on the ESLR downgrade last week...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 1:11 PM [link]
Jock,
I appreciate your perspective and I don't completely disagree. However, I don't support NAFTA, Bill Clinton did. And a healthy level of immigration of all kinds is helpful to an economy, to a point. However, immigrants from south of the border are now so numerous that, and I mean no animosity, but seriously, we're literally tripping over them even in "lilly-white" Fairfield county, as well as in every other corner of the nation. In addition, the point at which they "meaningfully displace" legal American citizens is that point at which I take leave of my liberal eastern university peers and side with those seeking to find a physical, actual solution to a problem that now threatens the livelihoods of more Americans than are aided by the constant flow of cheap labor. It is in Mexico that the system needs changing, not here. Here we need to enforce our immigration laws. And having been a history major who graduated with honors, I recall that the flow of European immigrants to this country was in no way the free-for-all that Mexican immigration is turning out to be. Once again, no animosity to any individual, but it would be nice if, considering current economic and employment realities, we could prioritize the interests of American citizens over legal citizens of other nations.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 1:14 PM [link]
SMN:
I am feeling the heat too, but adding a little more at 28.25
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2008 1:15 PM [link]
2nd,
Thanks. My tantrum is over for today. I guess I'm just leery going long in anything right now. How am I supposed to know how high Ben and Paul want the market to go? So, I'll stick to what I know and keep shorting when the buying runs out of steam. It's looking pretty toppy currently. Another day or two of this if that and the market should come down a little.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
May 14, 2008 1:19 PM [link]
Is there anyone out there who is an EXPERT at using level 2 and beyond quotes? I have Scottrade Totalview, and I need a heads up on some of the things you want to know to use it right. My first question is, why would any big trading operation leave open orders just hanging out there without having any idea how low/high the price could go? I get that people with jobs might do that, but some of these players are banks. Don't they risk getting stuck with lots of stock and/or selling too cheaply, or do they stand at the ready to pull those orders if the price nears them with vigor?
Also, how "real" are these open orders or do they exist merely to provide a false picture of weakness or strength?
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 1:27 PM [link]
"And a healthy level of immigration of all kinds is helpful to an economy, to a point. However, immigrants from south of the border are now so numerous that, and I mean no animosity, but seriously, we're literally tripping over them even in "lilly-white" Fairfield county, as well as in every other corner of the nation."
We're getting close to racism here Shark. This requires an us vs them attitude and a skintone color code...however, people don't wear their citizenship papers on their foreheads or their greencards, so you are judging before really knowing much. Many hispanic immigrants are not from Mexico at all. You could be seeing Hondurans, Columbians, Cubans, etc. Those with either citizenship or a green card might well think that the place is crawling with too many caucasians. A matter of point of view, no?
I always thought the foundation of the country came from Europe. They imported everyone else as slave labor and now bitch about it.
I'm trying to figure out who hasn't made the list.
Blacks, Irish, Chinese, Japanese, Italians, European Jews, all Latinos..... not necessarily in that order. It's time to stop with the straw men of varying colors.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2008 1:42 PM [link]
the international sector doesn't seem to being slowing significantly. The Bulk Dry Index BDI is up to 10649, almost back to its high of last year, and our old friends the dry shippers DSX and DRYS are white hot right now... seems to me the US recession a/k/a "slow down" is taking its time impacting the BRICs
Interestingly, Fearnleys has taken note of substantial ordering of tankers in recent weeks, and not just tankers, but VLCCs - very large crude carriers once known as supertankers. Tanker shipping rates have been sluggish and supposedly oil supply has reached its peak. So, can anyone tell me why the sudden interest in building new VLCCs if there is a limited supply of oil to ship? These new VLCCs are very expensive given the current price of steel.
Posted by: watermelon
at
May 14, 2008 1:45 PM [link]
shark,
I'll skip first one since it's about marketmakers' strategy which is not really Level 2 question, and is being governed by way too many factors.
I'll take a stab on second one: "how "real" are these open orders or do they exist merely to provide a false picture of weakness or strength?"
Both. They are real in a sense that you can hit them and get filled. They also are often being put out there in order to create certain impression and encourage desirable price movement. Simplified example that helps see the idea: marketmaker PUNK wants 5,000 shares at $10, market is 10.05 x .07. He puts reserve bid at $10 showing just 100 shares and keeping 4,900 in reserve; at the same time he shows 30,000 shares offer at 10.07, scares traders into selling, lowers his offer to 10.02 as stock downticks to his bid. With everyone gone from bids and hitting Sell button, he, alone bidder with laousy 100 shares shown at the bid, absorbs all the selling until he gets his 5K shares... or until sellers run out of gas and someone probes his scary-looking offer. Then he immediately cancels his offer lest buyers take him up on that 30K.
Level 2 is as much for faking and misinterpretinbg intentions as it is for intraday traders to decode them. Sometimes common sense works (as in, if someone really wanted to buy or sell huge amount of shares, why would he advertise such intention for whole world). Sometimes it's not that straightforward, and you can tell real order from fake one only when it gets hit and either stays or cancels.
Posted by: Vadym Graifer
at
May 14, 2008 1:46 PM [link]
craig- beautiful...long bond is selling off/TBT bidding up in gaps...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 1:50 PM [link]
ETFC is starting to heat up. While dilution and mortgages are a concern, the company has a brokerage business that brings in $600 Million in annual earnings. If there is any hint of stabilization in the mortgage biz, this will be a $12 stock in a month.
Posted by: teamonfuego
at
May 14, 2008 1:51 PM [link]
ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has enough on their hands with illegal alien criminal organizations as well as jurisdictional crimes like money laudering, etc. and anti-terrorism initiatives, without spending investigative resources on rounding up those illegals who have jobs, pay taxes and are law abiding other than simply their status. ICE has more than enough work to do. However, rounding up illegals at meat packing plants, tailoring shops, landscaping businesses (grass cuting, tree cutting & golf courses) makes good political headway for the powers that be. Looks good to the masses who vote, but doesn’t solve the problem.
As for taking away jobs, that may be true in some places, but in many places in the U.S. that is not true. I could provide a number of examples, but won’t.
Recall about two months ago saw a roundtable on immigration with approximately 10 down to earth Americans from both sides of the issues. Both sides had valid issues. One was an American Hispanic who resented illegals in the country for a number of the usual reasons and then some. Another was a Colorado woman who owned a roofing company. At $30 an hour she could not get Americans to do this work despite continual advertising. Illegals continually applied and she turned them away because of past scutiny from the authorities and if I recall correctly, possible fines. Her company had to turn down a lot of business due to the lack of available workers. She wasn’t sure if she and her husband would even stay in the business.
There are solutions but not easy remedies. It calls for leadership and some hard decision making as people on both sides of the issues will not be entirely pleased. Will America stand up or let things stay the same? Problem is things don’t stay the same; they drift in different directions which will exacerbate the situation with current band-aid approaches.
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 14, 2008 1:54 PM [link]
squeeze is over for now in ESLR...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 1:55 PM [link]
Any opinion on Silver Bear Resources Inc.-SBR.TO?
Same management with WGW.
2nd: TBT...this thing has a pretty big bid/ask spread and gobbles up ground quickly in either direction when it moves. Nice move today....
Long RRPIX/TBT.
Also the refiners. I got into TSO the other day and it's been doing well. Falling oil will be good for crack spreads yet gas will remain high.... Long TSO.
My main focus has been on good div payers at a big discount, then trade around the position while pulling in the div. Small enough positions that big pullbacks are buying opportunities. Example: CNSL sold half position this AM, add below $14.
Long CNSL & CHSCP.
Starting GFI at 13.48 adding on pullbacks.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2008 2:13 PM [link]
need rotation out of commodities and/or into other sectors for this market to go higher...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 2:17 PM [link]
Thank you Vadym. I will watch carefully and try to learn.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 2:17 PM [link]
Level II
I've never found level II to all that it is cracked up to be...I prefer a simple real-time chart w/ a rsi read out. Maybe that just shows my lack of sophistication.
Posted by: watermelon
at
May 14, 2008 2:20 PM [link]
'low CPI' numbers (real or not) should help the chinese market tomorrow, where beijing is openly battling inflation...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 2:23 PM [link]
Viso - Silver Bear
With juniors still so weak, I look first look to see if a candidate's trading volume can support a stop, in case the stock slides after you buy it. Volume is so light on Silver Bear that you couldn't hope to get out at a stop-loss price without lots of slippage. (If you don't know these terms,lots of sites can explain them.)
Given low trading volume, the only safe way to buy is if the stock is historically very low. Assuming the fundamentals are compelling, you'd buy and hold it. Low entry price would be your "margin of safety".
Silver Bear is not anywhere near a weekly lower bollinger band (which would be 2 std. deviations below the moving average, and therefore historically low).
This being the case, I wouldn't even look at the fundamentals. There's no safe way to buy the stock!
Of course, these strict criteria would change if and when the juniors ignite to enjoy their day in the sun.
There are exceptions, such as juniors which have such strong fundamentals that you're willing to buy and hold even at middling prices (GIX, for example), but there aren't MANY exceptions.
FWIW, just one man's approach. And we all need to develop our own trading style that suits our risk appetite, time horizon, etc. ...
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2008 2:35 PM [link]
watermelon,
most likely that's because of gross and unfortunately widely accepted misinterpretation of this tool. Level 2 is NOT a directional tool, at least not beyond couple ticks at best. You can't compare it against chart, simply because those are two very different animals with very different tasks. As far as reading the movement goes, by all means chart is the tool to use.
Level 2 was hyped in late 1990 as a tool "leveling the playing field", "giving an everyday man the same information pros use". That wasn't true even then, let alone now. Level 2 is all but useless for anyone but intraday traders, and even for them it's not helpful for determining the direction to any sensible extent. It helps fine-tune entry and exit sometimes; in rare cases it may give a trading idea when some market participant is careless enough to let his agenda be seen.
What Level 2 is really good for is risk evaluation, in terms of seeing stock "thickness" from a single glance. Spread, sizes shown, gap between levels help (with little skill) see what kind of slippage you may get if you want to get your order filled while stock runs away. Look at CPST for an example of very thick one with almost no risk of slippage, and at DGLY for a stock with possible 10-20 cents slippage (if you operate 1000 shares standard lot).
Posted by: Vadym Graifer
at
May 14, 2008 2:38 PM [link]
TNX- last time the ten-year closed above 4% was december...getting close...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 2:38 PM [link]
earthquake may bring more inflationary pressure to China . . . sad to see the massive death toll . . . not unusual to have inferior housing structure in rural areas that earthquakes just destroy . . . if you have access to it on your cable or satellite, BBC has some graphic reporting.
See the Chinese currency ETF CYB began trading today along with some others.
10 year bond approaching 4.0% area!
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 14, 2008 2:39 PM [link]
teamofuego
At one time, ETFC was a CARA 100 stock. Bill dumped them from the list when it became apparent they had been economical with the true about their involvement in the mortgage business. I failed to heed his warning, and instead bought into rumors of a merger. I lost.
One of the problems with the merger idea was others were not interested in assuming the mortgage part of ETFC's business. If the mortgage part of their business is now gone, perhaps a merger would now work ey? Keep your ears to the ground my friend.
Posted by: watermelon
at
May 14, 2008 2:54 PM [link]
pasting excerpts from various sources:
"The five WisdomTree Dreyfus ETFs are:
Chinese Yuan Fund , Indian Rupee Fund (CDNX:ICN.V - News), Euro Fund , Brazilian Real Fund and Japanese Yen Fund .
They invest in money markets of the associated currencies.
Additional performance -- good or bad -- comes from the currency's action against the dollar.
Investors get the income from the ETF, just as they would in a money market fund.
Interest payments from the ETFs are annual for the Brazilian, Indian and Chinese funds and quarterly for Europe and Japan.
In the developed markets, the funds invest mostly in government and commercial paper, says WisdomTree President Bruce Lavine.
Futures Contracts
For Brazil, China and India, it's harder to buy government debt.
In that case, the ETFs buy into futures contracts on that debt and roll them over periodically.
The contracts are traded in the U.S."
Fund Name Ticker
WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund CYB
WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund BZF
WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Fund ICN
WisdomTree DreyfusEuro Fund EU
WisdomTree DreyfusJapanese YenFund JYF
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 2:56 PM [link]
The VIX has tumbled 50% in about 9 weeks, hit it's lower Bol band on a weekly time frame for the first time since early 2007, and going below 30 RSI for the first time since the middle of 2005. Nuf said. Buy vol. Give yourself at least 6 months, use ETFs, individual stocks, or indices. Very favorable risk reward going forward. Good trading to all.
Posted by: optionoracle
at
May 14, 2008 3:16 PM [link]
Too bad the Average Joe cannot use new accounting rules to reduce their losses like the big boyz do...
"Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, reported a smaller loss than analysts estimates after accounting changes reduced charges by at least $2.6 billion.
Without the use of two new accounting rules, Freddie Mac would have posted a loss of at least $1.7 billion, analysts said. A change in the way the company values some assets that aren't traded reduced credit losses by $1.3 billion, while a separate rule that lets the company pick and choose which assets to measure contributed an equal amount as well, Freddie Mac said."
Posted by: fireworks
at
May 14, 2008 3:18 PM [link]
VIX rallies 5.5% while I was typing the earlier comment. Either I type very slowly (hunt and peck always) or I can sway markets. LOL. Yeah right.
Posted by: optionoracle
at
May 14, 2008 3:19 PM [link]
jogyp- your intrepid buy of SMN at the low is now rewarded...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 3:25 PM [link]
Kaimu,
I'm all for abolishing the FED and the IRS and having the Treasury take over and administer a flat tax.
Wouldn't it be great if Ron Paul ends up winning as a write in candidate?
I know he'd have the backbone to do the right thing.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
May 14, 2008 3:29 PM [link]
2nd - I thought so until 2 mins ago. BUt..
I was in a hurry and instead of clicking the ask column (IB -TWS), I might have cliked on the bid column which resulted in sell instead of buy.
Never verified the confirmation page. &*^&*&&
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2008 3:31 PM [link]
optionoracle: how can I buy VIX? It is not traded directly, and Yahoo does not show any options that I can buy...
Thanks,
DavidV
Posted by: David
at
May 14, 2008 3:37 PM [link]
Volume picking up on the downside.
Somebody with fat fingers or panic sold IWM a point below where it was trading. Since it is exactly a point lower it was probably a fat finger.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 3:42 PM [link]
Re: Sask Coal Rush
The stock action here makes a good scenario to watch, since it shows that when stocks move together, there's a good chance that they are somehow linked. The stocks in play are GXS.V, WGF.V, and lately NAG.V. Its all about coal concessions since GXS.V discovered a coal seam while drilling for diamonds.
Shows action in the last five days.
Yahoo chart
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 3:50 PM [link]
Well this late day weakness has tempted me into buying some September DIA puts.
Let's hope it's not a bear trap. But the charts are looking good. DOW and S&P hit resistance hard today and reversed down on high volume.
I'm just hoping a spade isn't a club today.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
May 14, 2008 3:56 PM [link]
LEH just made new LOD - leaving the party before the punch bowl runs dry?
Posted by: BillySundance
at
May 14, 2008 3:57 PM [link]
On my system I just punch in the symbol VIX to get the option montage. It is a CBOE product so it is the sole exchange that trades the product. I would go the the CBOE website to learn about the product if you truly wanted to trade the vehicle. Although I sometimes trade the VIX it is easier to trade options on an ETF, index, or individual stock.I would reccommend buying long dated vol-straddles, strangles, etc.-on products which have had extended runs, are close to resistance, and have volatility in low historical percentiles. If you put a position on in an equity choose a month that allows you to get a bump up in premium by being after an earnings date. Maybe you choose Jan options in IBM-they report earnings in July, Oct, and Jan so you may have 3 different time frames vol will be elevated. Ypu can always sell some front month options when this happens to capture this higher premium and lower the cost of your back month options. Hope this helps.
Posted by: optionoracle
at
May 14, 2008 3:58 PM [link]
I bought a few puts on DIA @ JUN 130 @ $2.60, you giving me the idea earlier this morning if it got close to dow 13,000
Posted by: b0ss
at
May 14, 2008 4:00 PM [link]
Paul Volcker's televised testimony to Congress today was cut-off when he started "telling it like it is"...
"Paul Volcker was providing testimony to Congress this morning, and it was being covered by Bloomberg television.
Volcker started to 'tell it like it is' and basically laid out the US economic situation in plain and simple terms. We wish we had recorded it. It was 'scathing' to say the least.
To paraphrase, the mathematicians took over with opaque and complex models. The regulators failed. No one likes regulators when times are good, and when times go bad they get all the blame. We had a system fueled by outrageously high compensation, and so the Wall Street firms did not care what they created as long as they could sell it to someone else.
It was starting to get interesting, and then... Bloomberg television cut away so that Betty Liu could tell us how well the stock market was doing, and they never came back."
Posted by: fireworks
at
May 14, 2008 4:04 PM [link]
Fireworks -
Perfect example of what Bill was talking about today. It is beyond sickening...
There will be tremendous blowback when the consequences of what is being done are felt.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 4:07 PM [link]
What's wrong with Bloomberg recently? They used to be pretty good about unbiased reporting. But it's as if they have taken a page out of the CNBC book of market happy talk.
Yesterday it was Betty Liu trying to convince us the market was up on "good" retail numbers. Today it's "good" CPI numbers.
And now they cut away from a truth teller?
Disgraceful.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 14, 2008 4:07 PM [link]
Fransix - coal rush
Look at how the volume explodes as insiders gleefully sell into the unfolding mania !
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2008 4:14 PM [link]
Dr. Cosa -
Aren't 40% of the stocks in the CDNX index energy stocks? How do you know that it isn't the energy components that have powered the CDNX higher?
I don't see how you can draw your conclusion except from an index that is purely junior miners ...
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2008 4:18 PM [link]
I wondered if anyone else was noticing RE: Bloomberg.
Suddenly we have Betty Lu imitating Maria Bartiromo and all these girls running around telling us how this or that analyst from this or that firm with so much $ under management says this or that. More useless noise. Only now we don't get to scoff at the analysts in clown suits, we have to scoff at cute little girls parotting what some DA told them to say.
Now I've taken to turning the sound down on Bloomberg too. Where to turn? CNBC sucks, FOX makes me sick, and now Bloomberg has caught the Ahole promovirus. May as well turn it off entirely as it's pure BS fulltime now.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2008 4:32 PM [link]
Craig re Bloomberg
All the media channels are are doing what they are paid for. It works OK in times when there is substantial arbitrage between different powerful business interests. When their owners are united in fear the media turns to being the worst propaganda machine.
Posted by: occam_razor
at
May 14, 2008 4:45 PM [link]
David re VIX
There are indeed options on VIX. They are european style however (can only be exercised on expiry) and can be easily manipulated. I'd recommend against trading these unless you have a lot of experience.
Posted by: occam_razor
at
May 14, 2008 4:51 PM [link]
I watch Bloomberg for a few minutes at 9am each day (not much). I've noticed a change towards cheerleading as well with obscure guests touting "no recession" and Betty starting to opine on all the good news.
Take a look at this cheerleading from today's market update (briefing.com):
"The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. Economists expected a higher 0.3% increase in CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. Compared to last year, total CPI is up 3.9% and core CPI up 2.3%. This matches the Fed's view that inflation should moderate, and is a positive report for the stock market."
It really is the big lie.
Posted by: moab
at
May 14, 2008 4:53 PM [link]
CPI report is indeed one sickening lie. I'd like to know where they buy food, gas, what magic utility company they are using and how they keep health insurance premium from increasing. Maybe I am shopping at all the wrong places, maybe there is some secret place in USofA where CPI rise is 0.2%
Posted by: occam_razor
at
May 14, 2008 5:07 PM [link]
Jock
Re: Sask Coal Rush
There hasn't been any insider selling at all in either company. WGF.V had some selling last year 2007 by one insider as the stock peaked out, long before the advent of coal concessions for that company. Its the real deal here. There really is a surprise discovery of bituminous coal.
I presume the selling has to be profit taking from long suffering holders of WGF.V fed up with little or no return. I would expect the same in ANY junior share on the market.
GXS.V is a little different, because their float is so tiny. Short sellers from the Sith Lord camp will no doubt be hovering round this company and BOTH juniors will be seeing massive naked short selling, no doubt.
You'll never see short interest listed of late on junior stocks, because its just way easier to naked short sell on Canadian markets. Its open season on Canadian junior stocks and no regulations to stop it on the Canadian side.
They had attempted to undermine Timminco last week by raising doubts through the media about their newly developed technique for solar panels. Its a given that the exact same travesty of doubts will rain on GXS.V in the next few days.
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 5:09 PM [link]
Expanding on my previous media comment. I actually hold an opinion that democracy does not exist. What we call a democracy is really an arbitrage between business interests and that is the only way when envolvement of masses is encouraged. The places and times where/when such arbitrage is not required due to either non-diversified economy (Russia, Middle East) or due to common fear or trend towards loss of diversification (US) biases the political structure towards authoritarian rule. And the first symptom is total media control.
Posted by: occam_razor
at
May 14, 2008 5:18 PM [link]
With all the talk of immigration on here today I couldn't help myself, I though this would lighten the mood a bit!
Illegal immigration of Americans to Canada: The flood of American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week, sparking calls for increased patrols to stop the illegal immigration. From the Manitoba Herald - Winnipeg, Canada.
The actions of President Bush are prompting the exodus among left-leaning citizens who fear they'll soon be required to hunt, pray, and agree with Bill O'Reilly. Canadian border farmers say it's not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, animal- rights activists and Unitarians crossing their fields at night.
"I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn," said Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota. The producer was cold, exhausted and hungry. "He asked me if I could spare a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn't have any, he left. Didn't even get a chance to show him my screenplay!"
In an effort to stop the illegal aliens, Greenfield erected higher fences, but the liberals scaled them. So he tried installing speakers that blare Rush Limbaugh across the fields. "Not real effective," he said. "The liberals still got through and Rush annoyed the cows so much they wouldn't give milk."
Officials are particularly concerned about smugglers who meet liberals near the Canadian border, pack them into Volvo station wagons, drive them across the border and leave them to fend for themselves. "A lot of these people are not prepared for rugged conditions," an Ontario border patrolman said. "I found one carload without a drop of drinking water. "They did have a nice little Napa Valley cabernet, though."
When liberals are caught, they're sent back across the border, often wailing loudly that they fear retribution from conservatives. Rumors have been circulating about the Bush administration establishing re-education camps in which liberals will be forced to drink beer from cans and watch NASCAR races.
In recent days, liberals have turned to sometimes-ingenious ways of crossing the border. Some have taken to posing as senior citizens on bus trips to buy cheap Canadian prescription drugs. After catching a half-dozen young vegans disguised in gray wigs, Canadian immigration authorities began stopping buses and quizzing the supposed senior-citizen passengers on Perry Como and Rosemary Clooney hits to prove they were alive in the '50s. "If they can't identify the accordion player on The Lawrence Welk Show, we get suspicious about their age," an official said.
Canadian citizens have complained that the illegal immigrants are creating an organic-broccoli shortage and renting all the good Susan Sarandon movies. "I feel sorry for American liberals, but the Canadian economy just can't support them," an Ottawa resident said. "How many art-history majors does one country need?
Posted by: C-Town
at
May 14, 2008 5:36 PM [link]
Re: Sask Coal Rush
Actually, the coal is sub-bituminous from the news release from Goldsource Mines, but has to be re-analyzed as a lot of water is used in drilling. I find it very curious that this discovery has resulted in lots of scoffing and little actual reporting.
Here's a pretty good article on the situation:
Coal turns into gold for explorers
http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/mining/story.html?id=500351
found via:
http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&ned=ca&q=goldsource+mines&btnG=Search+News
From a trading perspective, it makes for interesting viewing since traders will trade on price and not fundamentals regardless of their position, long or short.
But buying in? I guess an agressive trader would know what to do, its good to watch from the bleachers if you have an energy watch list and let this one reel out.
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 6:18 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
I find this statement by Paul Volcker today absolute fantasy!
"Don't push all this help for the credit markets on the Federal Reserve. That's the way to destroy the Federal Reserve because it does need its independence," he said.
The reason we are in this mess is because the Federal Reserve exists! Nevermind tha BS about its "independence"! A private entity controlled by banks is supposed to be "independent"? YEAH ... independent of morality maybe! FAT CHANCE there will ever be any "fair and balanced" transparent policy coming out of the FED! FED policy is as clear as MUD!
ALOHA !!
MORE WRITEDOWNS FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY! Is the Canadian Banking System that much better off on a relative basis than US Banks? What happens to banks happens to currency!
Here is the gist of all these writedowns and why I believe they are not "writeoffs". Put CEO bonuses aside this time! A country's banking system is literally the currency. If four or five major US Banks like BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi and JP Morgan went belly up, the USA would lose its AAA credit rating instantly. Once a country credit rating is lowered that means all corporations operating within that country must also take a rating adjustment that will not be higher than the soveriegn credit rating of the country where they are based. Imagine what that would do to corporate bonds and the ability to raise cash.
Perhaps Haliburton moving to Dubai is a way of escaping a USA soverign credit rating downgrade.
Hence I am not surprised that Paul Volcker's meeting with Congress was for the most part behind closed doors! That has to make US PESO holders overseas VERY nervous!
READ ON:
Royal Bank taking $855M hit in writedowns
Updated Wed. May. 14 2008 9:31 AM ET
The Canadian Press
TORONTO -- Royal Bank of Canada disclosed Wednesday that its results for the February-April quarter will be hit by $855 million in writedowns "relating to market conditions.'
The writedowns will be worth $420 million after tax, Canada's largest bank said.
"We are not happy about taking any writedowns and certainly do not take them lightly,' president and CEO Gord Nixon said in a statement.
"That said, these writedowns are manageable and our risk profile continues to remain within our risk appetite. This is due to our disciplined risk management, our strong balance sheet and our business diversity.'
Here's a change:
Ask what you want and they (employees) will get them for you: >20 <70 <30
May 14 (Bloomberg) Merrill Lynch & Co. will require stock analysts to have "underperform" ratings on at least 20 percent of the companies they cover, about four times the Wall Street average.
Wonder what it was before the new policy? No sells or < 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 14, 2008 7:20 PM [link]
colin twiggs: gold headed for test of support at 850:
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2008 8:17 PM [link]
Hispanics:
I hire immigrants all the time for my two construction businesses. Personally I perfer the Guatemalans over the Mexicans. They are better educated and the guys that I use speak English. Why do I hire them? Because American citizens will not do the work I need done. If they were they would be congragating in places where day labor is available. They could have first shot at the jobs; they speak the language. The idea that white America is available to do agricultural, dig trenches, pull weeds and just flat out work hard is frankly not accurate. Todays 20 somethings would fold on a dime at those jobs even at a premium wage. I pay the illegal immigrants the same as I pay legal Americans. Equal pay for equal work. Without them one element of my business would come to a stop.
Posted by: stktrader
at
May 14, 2008 9:40 PM [link]
STKtrader,
I am not disputing the validity or the accuracy of your experience. However... You assert that white Americans do not "congregate in places where day labor is available". This statement may be perfectly true, but it is not in and of itself proof that Americans are unwilling to do the kinds of jobs you describe. What it may be proof of is that congregating in places where day labor is available is, may perhaps be an uncertain and therefore inefficient method of securing work. It may be the case that if the work were "steady work" and didn't require finding a new job each day or week, it would be more appealing to Americans. Perhaps what you m personally require is both hard labor and in addition, an uncertain schedule of work, or wporadic work, in which instance procuring the work would in fact be a lot of work itself. This would be an unappealing situation for anyone requiring regular pay and the "certainty", more or less, of knowing there will be work in a given field of endeavor. Of course, the presence of the illegal laborer radically alters the employment landscape (no pun) and it is quite unknowable to us if, given a different set of circumstances (the absence of cheap sporadic illegal workers) it might be the case that both employers and employees behavior would be altered in a manner wufficient to ensure both a supply of workers and of work for them to do. As I said, I don't seek to disparage your opinion or your experience. And I am even glad that you personally benefit from the system as it is, being as you are a member of Bill Cara's community. Still, I must conclude that with the number of Mexican and south/central American illegals numbering ...what? Thirty million? Forty million people? I assert that the area of greater concern at this point is not too few illegal immigrants but instead, too many, and to contemplate the point at which a benefit becomes a liability.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2008 10:20 PM [link]
Shark,
It is obviously a liability to have illegal immigrants on the scale that we have in this country. I would be willing to give up that part of my business that requires sproadic day labor if all illegals went home considering the problems Americans have getting medical care in hospital emergency rooms. The migrants use them as regular care here in So. Cal making it hard to be seen since one has to get in line behind them to get an xray. They are hurting are schools system and this concept that everything has to be bilingual is unamerican. Learn to speak our language or get out. My wife's parents came from Algeria when the French were kicked out and immigrated to the US. They all learned English. I'm on your side.
Posted by: stktrader
at
May 14, 2008 11:02 PM [link]
OT: Taste your music - A bottle of house red please. Oh, and some Hendrix to go with it
http://tinyurl.com/6mvlyn
Posted by: cyderman
at
May 14, 2008 11:02 PM [link]
stktrader,
I appreciate your honesty about your situation. IMO the whole illegal immigration is nothing more than rhetoric. Media and political games. After all we are humans and all we do is play games, past-times and traditions.
If "white america" doesn't want that work for competitive pay, shame on those individuals. I admire those who are willing to take the risk, cross the boarders and work there tail off. Even if it is seasonal work or different hours. If you are in need of work, WORK or go back to school.
There are 300m people in this country and as our economy is steadily continually going towards a service base economy (hence we will always have a trade deficit) the idea and need for manual and physical labor isn't as appealing as it once was. We should be finding ways to educate our people in a proactive manner (another debate). Instead we tend to complain about the negatives and how things are a problem. Are they really a problem? I am sure we can point out a few exceptions either way in one extreme or another however the majority... are they really a problem?
The whole illegal immigration isn't' a fair discussion. For example, in the PHOENIX area we have canadians who have over stayed their visa. Now they are an illegal immigrant, however the authorities find it more important to pick out the offenders that they seem to find who are illegals. My point is, not to have a double standard (we can really get geographical and demographical on that the double standard).
Things need to be fair or don't play at all.
At least.... "Illegal immigration of Americans to Canada: The flood of American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week"
C-Town that was a funny post!
Hopefully it balances out.
One more thought, this is still the LAND of opportunity if people are willing to risk their lives to travel here from other countries...
sometimes our glass can seem half empty but to others it is half full.
Posted by: norm
at
May 14, 2008 11:07 PM [link]
Chinese TV takes aim at foreign gold miners
Published: Monday, 12 May, 2008, 01:59 AM Doha Time
BEIJING: State-run China Central Television has run a show that sharply criticised foreign mining investors in China, and suggested the country might tighten restrictions over investment in the sector.
CCTV’s half-hour segment, entitled ‘Who Moved my Gold Mine?’, focused primarily on Australian miner Sino Gold and its Jinfeng mine in Guangxi province, in southwestern China, which will be China’s second-largest gold mine.
The show, run last week, was aired at a time Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) has asked many Chinese firms to re-submit pending applications for mine investments there, and could reflect growing Chinese impatience as approval delays pile up, Australian mining sources said.
It also reflects a growing sense that China has opened too far to foreign investment in a number of industrial sectors, including natural resources, which are sensitive in many countries.
“Over 70 foreign miners are active in China, mostly in gold, and this has the utmost attention from the NDRC and other leaders. Rules on foreign mining are being revised,” said Ma Hongtao, the anchor for ‘Economic Half-Hour’, which aired the segment.
The National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, is China’s top planning body. It has lost much of its planning clout thanks to China’s economic reforms, but is still a powerful body with authority to approve all major projects.
China’s Ministry of Land and Resources has actively sought foreign investors to develop remote or difficult deposits, and ensure China has the minerals to feed its fast-growing economy.
But there is a growing movement to isolate some strategic minerals, including metals like indium, tungsten or rare earths, from foreign ownership, build reserves and limit exports so that China can ensure supply when needed in the future.
Critics of too much openness in mining have also complained that foreign speculators have flipped properties without fulfilling exploration quotas.
Meanwhile, only relatively small miners are active, since many foreign investors remain wary that they would not gain the right to develop any large or lucrative deposits they found. – Reuters
Posted by: FranSix
at
May 14, 2008 11:55 PM [link]
SOL did well but pulled back with the rest of the market. with high oil prices i think solars in general will do ok. the sector might need to pullback short term.
Listened to the earnings for what its worth and gross profit tripled vs Q1 2007. Piper Jaffray raised their target to $40 which i would question. http://tinyurl.com/3hrlgk
Sold 1/3 of my position today.
Here is a link to the press release with today's earnings. http://tinyurl.com/3h5pbb
please do your own DD.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 15, 2008 12:58 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
Many months after I have been using the "C" word ... C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E ... now I see Paul Volker ssaying the "C" word and it is all over Jim Sinclair's website!
CONFIDENCE is all that any global currency has. CONFIDENCE is all any brokerage has. CONFIDENCE is all any corporation has. See the link? If the basis of your entire financial and economic system rests on the "confidence" level of your currency then that is all your entire financial has to hold it up.
Without a "store of value" to base your currency on there is no "real" value in anything financial or economic! Its just that simple ... The rest is all just smoke and mirrors!
Who has the most to lose if the US PESO fails? Who holds the most US PESOS? US BANKS and the US TREASURY! That's why they are both in bed together. These guys are running the "smoke and mirror" machine 25/8!!!!
PAUL VOLKER threw a wrench in their "S&M" machine yesterday and that is a red flag to those who care to see the PESO DEBT MATRIX for what it really is ...
So, you cannot save banks or have social equity and level playing fields unless you first save the currency. Unless you first install a "store of value" to your currency. A FIAT monetary system would work really well if we were not human!
This is all like musical chairs ... the music can stop at any moment day or night! GAME OVER is GAME OVER!! SHOULDA ... WOULDA ... COULDA? NO ... DONE!!
IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T !!!
Here's a link to the text of Volcker's prepared comments:
This is a PDF.
(The techno-nerds among us we can snicker at the fact that this is a cold fusion web site.)
Posted by: number2son
at
May 15, 2008 8:35 AM [link]
Good morning.
Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:
Upgrade:
CVX - to Buy @ UBS
Downgrade:
STO - to Neutral @ HSBC
Target Raised:
INTC - $24 to $26 @ Lehman Bros.
--------------------------------------------------
Have a great day.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
May 15, 2008 8:40 AM [link]
People, we need to expand our thinking.....if we are, in fact, thinking.....
All products will have descriptions in English, French and Spanish as the economy is now a world economy.
It may be hard to imagine now, as the dynamic is in constant flux, but at some point Mexico will be a world class economic power.....while our standard of living will be falling.
People that want to profit will be learning Spanish, as business people are learning Chinese and learned Japanese in the 70's and 80's.
Maybe WE need to expand our thinking.
Shark may want to retire in Mexico, I know I might have to. If they don't kick us out for the color of our skin and the language we speak.
Americans are in for the most rude wake-up call.
We need to treat people better.
Shark, what you wrote this AM has been said about every minority that has ever come to this country with no exceptions, and it never has been true.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 15, 2008 8:42 AM [link]
spot gold surging to $875 right now. USD not exactly tanking... is something brewing?
Dr, do you think the bad manufacturing news and bad continuing jobless claims may have something to do with that spike?
I do.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 15, 2008 8:56 AM [link]
Craig,
What I said was thoughful, nuanced, and quite balanced and reasonable in my estimation. Did you actually read it?
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 15, 2008 8:58 AM [link]
Oh yes, I read it.
Yes, it was more nuanced and thoughtful than yesterday's post. It wasn't blatant racism, but it's racism.
The fact is: If these people weren't easily identified by skin color you wouldn't know they existed. The proof is the comment someone else made about Canadians in Phoenix.
Unless they have a "out" or "Eh" exam or they suddenly start speaking French, Canadians will not be bothered in the U.S.
What I wrote is true. There has never been a U.S. minority not subject to the kind of nonsense you wrote. First, even the highest estimates of illegal Latinos in the country are one half of what you wrote, and even if it were 30 million people, it would only be 10% of our population.
Look at history, History Major. There is no shortage of evidence of this kind of nonsense.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 15, 2008 9:09 AM [link]
Cara 100 Update:
SNDK Upgraded to Buy @ Needham
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
May 15, 2008 9:22 AM [link]
Craig,
I gotta tell you, you are 100% off base with your charge of racism. I encourage everyone to read my above-post and judge for yourselves. I must say that to even use the word racism in regard to my post is an unwarranted and unfair aspersion. Here in America Craig we have 3 million American collecting unemployment checks right now.
3 MILLION AMERICANS COLLECTING UNEMPLOYMENT CHECKS. New graduates can't get jobs. Even MBA's. And I am to believe that there are jobs Americans won't do? Anyway Craig, let's drop this for now, so that we can buy some gold stocks and make some $ so that it won't be us shaping up for day-labor.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 15, 2008 9:24 AM [link]
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ESLR is trading up over 8% in pre-market on an upgrade from Jeffries and in sympathy with other solar companies.
Remember the 7% drop on Friday on the Citi sell recommendation?
What fun and games. Not.
Also, the CPI is out and the cheerleaders are saying it is encouraging. What the hey? Are people so easily fooled when they are paying much higher prices at the pump and grocery store? Do they really care that the price of furniture and hotel rooms are holding steady while gas and bread skyrocket in price?
I don't think so.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 14, 2008 9:07 AM [link]