The Flying Dream
(I had last night)

Arriving at the airport, I couldn’t see my dad anywhere. It was late on a sultry summer afternoon, and the crowd was sparse, a few hushed travelers waiting on molded plastic benches along a far wall. Through big glass windows I could see the taxiway and the field beyond. Dad must be around here somewhere, I thought. Looking in my carry on bag I saw only one tee shirt and one pair of dress pants. Damn. I had meant to bring sweatpants, swimming trunks and my new bottle of tanning lotion. We were going somewhere warm together. Paradise.
After a few minutes my mom and sister showed up to see us off. Suddenly I could hear the deafening sound of propellers. Outside the windows a big blue plane came swinging around wildly, almost hitting the edge of the building. Turning 180 degrees, the plane parked just outside the double doors and shut down the engines.
“Mom, I don’t know if I can do this” I said. I had always been afraid of flying, and this egg beater was definitely the smallest plane I’d ever seen. We walked outside and found my dad waiting quietly for me just at the edge of the tarmac. The pilot climbed down from the cockpit and stood under the wing, smiling at me. He was a dark-skinned Latino, an islander himself, and he stood waiting to help us put our bags on board.
“You ready to go” he asked?
“I don’t think so” I replied. I’ve always been afraid, not just of flying, but of bridges, tall buildings, and lots of other things too”.
“You’ve got nothing to worry about” he replied, the smile never leaving his face. I could see that the plane had been painted over many times in layers of flaking royal blue that looked like model airplane paint that you’d buy at a hobby store.
With my mom and sister standing back near the terminal, I picked up my bag and stepped back from the plane. I couldn’t see my dad anymore but I was afraid he’d be disappointed. But there’s no way I’m flying off in that thing, I thought. No way. Not now.
As I receded I could see a few other passengers boarding, my father having slipped off into the crowd, alone. I rejoined my mother and sister, and they seemed glad to have me back. As I woke up I remembered that my dad had died a few years before, and that he loved flying, and that in his own way, he loved me too, and I vowed to stay off that plane and planes like it for as long as I possibly could.

First off, since i am on top of the comments here, I want everyone to notice how masterly Bill tells the story of his life. I want you to pay attention on the wording, on how humanly he reacts to things happening in his life. It is so detailed and interesting - you can feel his emotions almost as you are experiencing this in real life. THAT my friends,THAT is why Bill is the # 1 blog writer in investments and the rest of them are just penny-stock pitchers. OK, i have some bearish interview with Citigroup's Killer, also more on the Kindle thing and a quick update on great Chilean stock i am watching.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/

[Bill Cara note: Thank you Rob. I'm glad you like it. I just try to be me. I wish I had more time to write stuff and edit what you read, but it is what it is. More than anything, I want everybody to know that I don't read financial newspapers, magazines or other blogs, so my words aren't skewed by ideas put forth by other people. I also try to watch as little Financial Entertainment TV as possible because I find it a non-stop exercise in proselytizing.]

Shark, as a Dad, let me tell you.....there is nothing like a father's love for his children.
You can take it to the bank that your Dad loved you more than life itself.

Have you considered becoming a writer? I think you should think about it, you really are very good.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

CEO - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
EXC - to Buy @ Deutsche Securities
IMO - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

New Coverage:

BC - Hold @ KeyBanc

Thank you very much Craig.

I'd like to short the Dow Jones Transport Average index (or the IYT etf).
Since in Italy it seems I can't buy easily the options about it, what short ETF (i.e. ProShares or others) seems to you to have a (inverse) high correlation with that index?
I tried to look for the usual indexes, but it seems to me that the DJ Transport rocketed to the moon in comparison to any other index, so I'd like to start to short it soon.

gold spiking right now,
any news that im missing or is this the volatility
that Jim Sinclair was warning of the past 2 days?

Where have all the commenters gone? Is their absence a signal that the markets have done their best to dispirit the bears?

Re: POG

Oil prices are up to another record in prices, so I guess we'll see if there's a pull back at 131. I sort of doubt it with the geopolitical situation, but gold and silver will be benefitting at the same time.

I'm not sure if I really want to see a test of the hypothesis that if oil declines, it would take gold with it.

Reasons for low postings:
1. Sell in May.
2. The weather is nice and he lawn needs mowing....
3. This market is schizo...
4. You could lose your money just as quickly on a nice vacation...
5. We thought this was a investing blog with a drinking problem and we are all going to Euphoria, one of the outer Islands.
6. Fear of Shark's war kitten, Cupcake.

I bought SDS this morning. The market is still extremely volatile and unpredictable, but the charts are telling me we're going lower on the S&P.

After all, the extremely negative earnings and economic news can be ignored for only so long.

Speaking of gold and miners, is anyone buying Goldfields (GFI) at these prices? It seems a relative bargain. I, however, mistimed my entry yesterday. And I don't know how increasing its stake in Sino is perceived as negative? Maybe this is overridden by the political turmoil in S.A.?

The pop above the 200 dma yesterday and subsequent smackdown is typical and expected bear market action. The behavior on the selloff will tell the tale. Momentum stocks topped out several sessions ago so I would expect their to be a significant retrenchment.

New Puts on BKX and IYT. Bailed, CAF.

Miners moving on fiat follies, flat Fed.

Talk from the noggins on TV is about selling into a long patriotic weekend and almost all the traders interviewed are calling for a sell off.
FWIW...

Many months ago Kaimu posted about the readying of hundreds of detention camps in the US. We were trying to speculate on why they were being readied.

Apparently, this is why:

http://tinyurl.com/5vvavc

Bill,
Hutchison Whampoa must have an ear towards the messy legal disputes between Sir Jack Hayward and Lady Henrietta St. George, the two owners of Grand Bahama Port Authority. One thought the partnership was 75-25 and it was ruled by the Bahamian Supreme Court that it was not - it is 50-50. Don't know how the appeal has progressed. On top of that, there is the 7.5% share claim of the Bahamian Government in GBPA.
All this has a major impact on the plans of HWL, Devco, et al. And what to make of Rod Fleming of the Fleming Group in his pursuit of ownership of GBPA?

What happens in the Bahamas has a big impact on Florida and on me, as I earn my nut in the Port of Miami. 90 percent of containerized imports are from the US and virtually all of that is from Florida. Most of that goes right to Nassau. Freeport is a pure transhipment hub that sends a miniscule amount of cargo to Nassau.
It's no coincidence that Freeport's rise in cargo volumes over the last seven years correlated perfectly with Miami's decline in transhipment cargo volumes.

As for Nassau's future development, I understand that a recent study proposes a major relocation of the cargo facilities in and around Nassau proper to Clifton. Have you heard of this discussion lately?

In the context of social equity, I hope that the native Bahamian people will benefit from the planned growth on New Providence and Grand Bahama Islands.

[Bill Cara note: kp84, I am very much aware of most of the issues. Just before the lawsuits broke out, the two owners and I signed a MOU for me to develop a Trader City. After it became apparent I had become acceptable to the owners, twice the Grand Bahama Port Authority (GBPA) dispatched their private plane to pick me up in Florida and their hospitality was outstanding, hosting me in the family compound of Lady Henrietta St. George. Then one evening, the day before I was bringing down the deputy chairman and managing partner for a well-known billionaire to move the project into the financial phase, I was called by lone spokesperson for both families and asked to defer my trip on account of the facts that have now come out. Having an interest in moving forward, I arrived for a couple days of meetings to gather information first-hand. "Money starts wars and money ends wars." Money will resolve this one. I have a very good sense of how this situation will play out. It is difficult for all the people who are directly involved and all those who are affected, but there will be a resolution. I intend to write a Cara Briefing on Grand Bahama Island and the opportunity that is here on so many levels. Beyond that I do not wish to say more at this point.

Earlier I made a comment that the Freeport Container Port handles more trafic than the Port of Miami. The numbers are 1.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) for Freeport and 900,000 for Miami. Singapore is the world's largest port, followed by Shanghai and then Hong Kong. The biggest in the US are Long Beach and LA, and Vancouver BC is the biggest in Canada.

btw, the Clifton project in Nassau will not happen. The costs are prohibitive. But the downtown facility will be moved to Arawak Cay, not far from Cable Beach.

As far as the future of the native Bahamian people, I assure you it's in good hands. There is zero likelihood for a foreign investor transforming this proud nation into something that is not Bahamian.]

"Speaking of gold and miners, is anyone buying Goldfields (GFI) at these prices? It seems a relative bargain. I, however, mistimed my entry yesterday. And I don't know how increasing its stake in Sino is perceived as negative? Maybe this is overridden by the political turmoil in S.A.?"

I rotated out of GFI yesterday, taking profit.

I am in South Africa but a long way from the current unrest. The latest violence is but one of
a cascading series of dominoes falling. The mines
rely very heavily on legally imported labour but the contagion will grow. Now, of course, GFI have
long diversified out of South Africa but still ...

Sold my puts on DIA 130 JUN for $3.10(bought Thursday @ $2.50)

I tried to buy put options on COF,GM,LEH,CMG,DIA when the market up yesterday but missed them all because I had too low of a price in. Just looking the rest of the day, no plays.

Allen

You still with on FXP?

Pickens driving oil up
Whitney driving stocks down!

Adding 1 last batch to SMN/DUG.
I think enrgery and basic material shares will break down going into the close today.

QT, I continue to believe that the bad news is accumulating, and the slow down plus inflation will eventually cause the additional 1000 to 2000 point drop that Bill has suggested is coming. Corporate profits are falling, inflation is cutting margins and consumer buying power, Chinese inflation keeps going up, energy costs eat away at margins. So I believe there will be another significant drop in both the Chinese and US markets. I'm content to hold for now. How about you?

I've also been accumulating TBT and RRPIX, and hold some NOT.V and GXEXF, but still about 65% in cash.

ALOHA !!

Has anyone seen this symbol ... MXC:AMEX?

Some big moves for a small Texas oil patch company!

Kaimu,

Why couldn't you tell us about MXC when it was at $5 last month? It is now over $40!

I haven't been posting as much because I've been so busy putting my gardens in. I have two that are each 50 by 100. Once they're in and mowing slows down I'll have more time for the market.

That's why I buy my positions with at least 3 months until expiration.

I like what I'm seeing today though.

But I would think Oil has to drop soon or else we'll have a severe depression.

Rob.

moab:

Since I live in the Bay Area, I don't get up to post here until 9 AM PST-ish.

Looks like the two big boys AAPL and GOOG are hanging on with small gains so far.

moab:

Since I live in the Bay Area, I don't get up to post here until 9 AM PST-ish.

Looks like the two big boys AAPL and GOOG are hanging on with small gains so far.

Allen

Sorry I couldn't post until now.

Yea ...I'm still holding and for the exact same reasons your are. I just hope it is sooner rather than later that it goes up.

I think everyone will find this article very interesting. If true then the Banks have sunk to NEW lows...

"Banks Suffer Losses From Bets On Their Employees' Death"

http://tinyurl.com/6aev8j

Joe, never trade what you "think" only trade what you "see."

Teich -

Yes Beta is acting better today but they topped out about 10 sessions ago so they are ahead of the rest of the market. They will probably put in a bottom before other stocks as well when the time comes.

Moab -
Perhaps the reason there are less commenters is the increase in skype use. When you post directly on skype it does not post here. When you post on here it does show up on skype. Just a thought. (I've tried posting this comment 3 times. It keeps shutting me out. This is my last try.)

Re: Low Number Of Posts

The weblog is suffering a denial of service attack of some sort, because its difficult to get on the blog.

[Bill Cara note: In my absence today, the website was down for over an hour. Looks like someone was trying to mirror the site and was hitting us so hard that nobody else could get in. Their IP address was blocked. Sorry, but every barrel has a few bad apples.]

ALOHA !!

boss ... I just ran across it yesterday doing some research! Look at the market cap. A quick calc ... Hummmmm ... does my calculator deceive me is there just 1.75mil shares?

Goldcorp CEO on BNN/TV

He says Penasquito is their best mine, and Mexico's largest (which could produce gold equivalent of 53M oz.). Adding Elienore, Quebec and Pueblo Viejo, They will grow to 3-4M oz. yearly production for 10 years. They bought assets when they were cheap, and since then have invested in the mines, and "managing their costs down". Now is a time to be selling (not buying) assets.

an affable corporate manager type, not a McEwan ...

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip53900

ALOHA !!

Goldman Sachs on the TOCOM has covered all the 1,745 shorts from a week or so again! Must have been a "head fake"!

The May 19 session has their net short position at 8,971 contracts!

If you go by that then the gold and silver spot prices should be rising as they are today anyway! Yet opex is around the corner ... Usually they trash spot prices prior! Can't have anyone in a position to actually consider taking "delivery", can you Ben?

Re yesterday's discussion of Hommell. He believes in "Bibilical Capitalism". And this belief is telling him that gold will go to (if I remember correctly) $80,000 per ounce.

This is not a person I would listen to concerning precious metals.

I wasn't listening to Hommel. I reposted a quote he had from a Perth Mint document which plainly stated that they loaned gold from their unnalocated pool to their gold fabrication division.

The quote gave the link to the PDF, hosted on the Perth Mint site.

nice of the market to follow our script so well, puts were awfully cheap when the indexes were above the sma200 and upper bollinger bands :)

looks like DJ30 will want the lower Bband & 50 ema convergence before its said and done, still looking for successful passage above the sma200's in a few weeks or less tho

good trading,
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

shark- beautiful...

gartman back in the gold game

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42856

Dennis Gartman re-enters gold market, turns bullish

By Jon Nones
16 May 2008 at 12:49 PM

SEATTLE (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, popular among hedge funds and securities companies, shocked subscribers this morning saying he was re-entering the gold market and “once again to turn bullish of the yellow metal.”

On April 21, Gartman abandoned his long held bullish outlook on gold, noting that the yellow metal “has broken this well defined bullish trend line and it failed ... miserably. It has bounced today, and we shall sell that bounce and exit ... entirely!”

In today’s Letter, however, Gartman said he will buy one unit of gold this morning, and “on a close above $890 ... or if spot gold should trade above $890 for an hour or two to prove the merit of its move... we'll add a second unit.”

“We had hoped to see gold trade down to $820 or so as the late long who've been holding to their position, hoping to be bailed out, are not and are left to liquidate into panic. However, it now appears that the drive downward through $850 earlier this month was sufficient and that order has been restored.

“The recent gold sales from the signatories to the Washington Agreement have been uncommonly small and that has tended to raise our bullish antennae accordingly. Toss into that the fact that the dollar is beginning to weaken once again, and toss in that the future notion that the general commodities market indices are still trending higher and we have the ammunition needed to rejoin the bullish hunt.”

moab:

Sorry, what is "Beta"?

Thank you 2nd_ave. Thank you very much.

Beta is a measure of a securities volatility with regard to the rest of the market. Big beta refers to the momentum names that rise and fall faster than the general market.

So UXG has a nice pop today, and then, surprise, at 4pm Eastern they release an updated reserve estimate. Who'd a thunk it!
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080520/0399226.html
From my limited knowledge it doesn't seem that impressive, low grade with difficult ore. Chart says good time to buy though, so probably just showing my ignorance.
Long UXG (underwater :-{)

re: lack of posting. I lurk mostly as I am not an efficient nor disciplined trader and would rather listen than speak of repeated beginners trading errors. I (and I assume many others) read daily, sometimes several times a day. I have used Skype but as it is hard for me to access, I mainly read and try to learn. I value all who post repeatedly. Thank you to the too many to name.
I'll share a bonehead mistake that turned to my favor in a very small way. On 5/13 I purchased 100 shares of CPSL after reading about it online and doing my version of dd. I sold it after earnings report and a 34% spike. I have learned here to use stops and I put a trailing stop on CPSL. I didnt realize the stop stays in effect if I sell the equity and today the 100 shares sold as the stop was triggered although I did not own any.
In effect I shorted the stock. Small short profit and I try to learn by my many mistakes.
Lots of learning going on for this old dog.
long WGW GIX, USU, PHO
peace from north puget sound

Photogary - been there and done that - I assumed (as they say it makes an ass out of u and me) that by manually closing out a positon the automated stop positon I also had tied to that stock would delete - but no, I ended up with multi $k option position going the wrong way - got out at mkt open but it cost me. Also made a mistake when setting a stop of not checking that the decimal point was being used - hence what should have been a proftable pick ened up with a multi second entry and exit for a small loss - all lessons to be learnt on the rocky road I guess.

moab:

Thanks...didn't know what beta you were referring to.

While it is true that AAPL and GOOG have high beta (> 2), some piece-of-crap stock like Ford (F) have beta = 2.1 too.

I think you and I follow similar stocks when trying to gauge what the market is going to do in the very short term.

I like this excuse.(lol)

Moody's awarded incorrect AAA ratings to billions of dollars worth of a complex debt product - constant proportion debt obligations - due to a bug in its computer models, the Financial Times reported.

And they knew about it in 2007....

http://tinyurl.com/5shqa2

Nicely written piece Shark. Very meaningful.